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  • @FozzieT
    If Trump puts Elon in as the head Government Efficiency, Elon should, in addition to cutting the size and scope of federal agencies, physically relocate them. Get them out of DC.

    Move them to cities that voted for Trump. Places like Knoxville TN, Provo UT, Tulsa OK, or Ft. Wayne IN. Sioux Falls SD, Wichita KS, and Jefferson City MO could also probably use the economic boost.

    Hire a bunch of locals to man the agencies whose current employees will surely resign rather than relocate to “flyover country.”

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Nachum, @Anonymous

    I always thought this was in interesting idea. The risk I would think is that you wind up adding a staunch blue voting block to red states that might turn them purple (or blue, as in Virginia). But maybe a single agency doesn’t have that much heft.

  • From the New York Times news section: Squirt Guns and ‘Go Home’ Signs: Barcelona Residents Take Aim at Tourists Locals confronted visitors to the Catalan capital in a whimsical (but very serious) demonstration against mass tourism and housing shortages. By Amelia Nierenberg and Rachel Chaundler Amelia Nierenberg reported from London and Rachel Chaundler from Zaragoza,...
  • I can hear shouts of “but tourists grow the economy” from the GDP uber alles crowd from here. The parallels between tourist disruption of local habitats and immigration disruption is pretty obvious. Immigration at this point is worse, since they intend to stay permanently rather than spend some money and leave. Also in most of the western world immigrants are no longer particularly skilled on average. It is nice to see people considering what I call the other side of the ledger. GDP is legible, social cohesion and quality of life for natives much less so. Conservatives need to form more coherent arguments about these things for the immigration debate.

    Regarding tourism in particular, it seems like short-term rentals are the biggest driver of friction in recent times. This makes sense. For example if staying at hotels were the only way to be a tourist in some location, hotel prices might go up when it becomes more popular (attracting richer and more economically favorable tourists) but given the relatively fixed supply of rooms it’s going to result in less overcrowding. However mass adoption of AirBnB or similar in a locale could x10 the number of rooms available for tourists without any real public debate (which usually happens for new proposed hotels or resorts). This can also drive up housing costs throughout a city since buying property to rent it out becomes more profitable. It also allows the RyanAir crowd to flood your city. Again the parallel to the current immigration debate is clear. Many nice tourism destinations ban short-term rentals for this reason (nb this does piss off some homeowners who would actually like to see appreciation in value of their assets). Either someone goes through the process of building a new hotel and all of the local debate and planning that entails, or capacity stays the same.

    Since I’m freestyling, another thought is that SWPL “sustainable tourism” is probably part of the problem. These people want to go be minimalist tourists, staying in a “local” AirBnB or hostel, cooking their meals, and spending their time hiking or otherwise taking in the local nature/attractions. From a local’s perspective this is probably the worst kind of tourist. They spend very little money and still impact the environment. If another person goes to one of these places and stays in a hotel and buys local luxury items and eats in restaurants (sort of typical tourist stuff) they leave more money behind locally and have an equal (or lesser) environmental impact, all else being equal.

    • Replies: @Old Prude
    @Moral Stone

    In my neck of the woods mass tourism and mass immigration go hand in hand. All the hotels water-parks and restaraunts are screaming that tourism makes the economy happy, but there is no one to change the sheets, hand out towels or serve lobster rolls, so we need immigrants.

    Nothing says “Down East” quite like a Jamaican serving you fried clams.

  • From my new column in Taki's Magazine, a book review of Tucker Carlson's anthology of his magazine articles, The Long Slide: Thirty Years in American Journalism. Tucker’s Tome Steve Sailer June 12, 2024 ... Like so many future journalists, Tucker obsessed as an adolescent over the most perfect pages of comic rhetoric penned by a...
  • @Bill P
    Tucker Carlson is an example what our leadership class could have been. He is a prep-school kid to the bone, but he doesn't seem to have an ounce of contempt for the common man.

    I listened to his Spotify talk with Thomas Massie the other day, including the second half where the two of them display their love for high-end wood houses. The entire thing had me chuckling a bit because this stuff is so out-of-reach for the average guy these days. I've done some carpentry and had in-laws who owned a high-end furniture business (both my boss and the in-laws were Scandinavian like Tucker) and the clients were exclusively very wealthy people.

    My point is that Tucker is no salt-of-the-earth guy. On the contrary, he's American gentry.

    There will always be an elite of some sort, and as it turns out the quality of that elite matters a great deal. What we have now is pretty rancid stuff.

    Wouldn't it be better if our elite were more like Tucker Carlson? Handsome, Christian, loyal, generous, eager to serve his fellow Americans, unencumbered by resentment and blessed with an innocent sense of wonder?

    Give me more of that and Tucker can have his impractical wood house, his sauna, his fly fishing, dogs and all the rest. I don't mind a bit.

    Replies: @Hunsdon, @Bill Jones, @Moral Stone, @Anonymous, @Arclight, @Kaz, @Moshe Def

    He’s a unique member of the “upper class” in that he doesn’t try to hide his membership, nor does he act faux-humble/ashamed of being rich, famous, well connected, etc. the way a lot of them do. I think that’s actually why he connects with middle class Americans on the right so well. It also helps that he’s one degree removed from being a Pariah at this point.

    It’s similar to Trump actually, whose public persona for a long time was basically “yes I’m rich and famous, it’s awesome, maybe you can be too.” That’s more honest and tolerable than anything coming out of the “drive a Volvo home to a $5 mil brownstone, take a jet to the climate protest crowd.”

    • Agree: R.G. Camara
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Moral Stone

    There are some people like that, to be sure, but unflashy/modest tastes aren't necessarily motivated by shame. If I were rich I'd much rather have the Volvo and brownstone than Trump's lifestyle. Some of us SWPLs just come out that way.

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Moral Stone


    He’s a unique member of the “upper class” in that he doesn’t try to hide his membership, nor does he act faux-humble/ashamed of being rich, famous, well connected, etc. the way a lot of them do. I think that’s actually why he connects with middle class Americans on the right so well.
     
    A friend of Victor Davis Hanson attended one of the earliest Trump events, where the candidate spoke to an agricultural crowd dressed in his normal business suit. That's when Hanson realized that the Donald was the real thing. Or at least as close to the real thing we're going to encounter in today's environment.

    A Honolulu politician, Duke Kawasaki, advised his son always to dress better than his audience, as a way of showing them respect. Excellent advice-- except in Silicon Valley, where the son works.

    Replies: @guest007, @Muggles

    , @R.G. Camara
    @Moral Stone

    Exactly. The faux-down hominess was worn thin in the television/internet age. The trick is over. Trump doesn't want to be my friend, but he doesn't care how I live so long as I let him live how he wants. He wants me to be happy living my way so he can live his.

    I wouldn't want his life for all the money he has, but he does. Good for him. Its genuine.

  • From the New York Times news section: How Gun Violence Spread Across One American City Columbus, Ohio, had only about 100 homicides a year. Then came a pandemic surge. With more guns and looser laws, can the city find its way back to the old normal? By Shaila Dewan and Robert Gebeloff Shaila Dewan reviewed...
  • @kaganovitch
    @Dr. X


    Note the gratuitous swipe at the “ghost gun” bullshit:
     
    In all likelihood they got the 'ghost gun' wrong in any case. A modular assembly with a finished lower receiver is not a ghost gun. The receiver is serial numbered same as a finished gun. A ghost gun is made from an %80 lower which is not numbered and is milled out by the end user, hence 'ghost'/untraceable.

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    All good points. But the media luminaries are currently using ghost guns (ghosts are scary, obviously) as part of their broader anti-gun crusade. So why would a propagandist let the opportunity go to waste? And hell, maybe it was actually a ghost gun, if the former marine was a DIY type.

  • A friend who is a little famous is getting ready for his 50th college reunion by going through lists of his old classmates. Harvard is extremely good at picking applicants with potential to burnish the Harvard brand name, and then at encouraging them to help each other out. So I recognize quite a few of...
  • @bjdubbs
    Pretty sure Stallman is more of a MIT than Harvard type. From a profile:

    “If you can find a host for me that has a friendly parrot, I will be very very glad. If you can find someone who has a friendly parrot I can visit with, that will be nice too. DON’T buy a parrot figuring that it will be a fun surprise for me. To acquire a parrot is a major decision: it is likely to outlive you. If you don’t know how to treat the parrot, it could be emotionally scarred and spend many decades feeling frightened and unhappy. If you buy a captured wild parrot, you will promote a cruel and devastating practice, and the parrot will be emotionally scarred before you get it. Meeting that sad animal is not an agreeable surprise.”

    https://gizmodo.com/please-do-not-buy-richard-stallman-a-parrot-and-other-r-5853729

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    The man has a point. Visiting with a friendly parrot does sound like fun. And the best way to get something is to ask for it.

  • From my new column in Taki's Magazine: The Return of Skepticism Steve Sailer April 10, 2024 McKinsey & Company, the famous management consulting firm, has published a number of wildly popular reports during the Great Awokening—such as 2015’s “Diversity Matters,” 2018’s “Delivering Through Diversity,” 2020’s “Diversity Wins,” and 2023’s “Diversity Matters Even More”—asserting that gender...
  • @Mark G.
    The new diverse America has not led to higher economic growth rates. The push for diversity is largely happening because the government is lurking in the background. Just the fear that the government might go after them keeps a lot of businesses in line in not abandoning the diversity fad.

    You will see an increasing number of White males just dropping out of the rat race and pursuing a minimalist lifestyle where they spend a large part of their time on various hobbies. Not only are they blocked from advancement by losing out to diversity hires, but they have to pay higher taxes on any increases in income to pay for an expanding welfare state.

    The push for diversity is just another redistributionist scheme that eliminates incentives to work hard, thus leading to slower economic growth.

    Replies: @Anon, @Moral Stone

    Tricky question – are the companies afraid of the government or is the usual middle manager so on board with diversity that going against that grain is career suicide that precludes ever making it to the C suite? I assume the answer is “both” but I’ve never been able to figure out how to tell.

    An interesting aside is how increased regulation and market concentration in general (incumbent advantages) might lead to a more entrenched diversity apparatus, essentially due to reduced competition from upstart firms.

  • @Not Raul
    @WowJustWow


    If you look at financial crises, what tends to happen is that one or two financial firms get immolated before the rest are bailed out. In that sense there is an incentive to run in the regime’s direction, but not so much as to completely ignore market realities. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your least regime-friendly competitor.

     

    So, Lehman Brothers and Silicon Valley Bank were the least regime-friendly firms in their respective markets?

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    Lehman arguably was, although not in a culture war sense. The few books I’ve read about it (for what that’s worth) have Lehman people suggest the regime did hate them, because the regime/blob was infested with Goldman alums and there was bad blood. Plausible, certainly not proven.

    SVB was just idiotic risk management and an unusual asset class mix that put them in a unique situation. They were a zebra with no other zebras amongst which to hide.

  • From Free Press: Berliner is in the business news section. 2011 shows up on a lot of David Rozado's graphs as the least woke year in the recent media, even better than 2010 and 2009. I suspect that the Democrats had a couple of positive accomplishments for the media to crow over in promoting Obama's...
  • @Bill P
    NPR was obviously seized by late-middle-age rich white ladies who metooed Garrison Keillor and Sherman Alexie and set up their own little fiefdom.

    I used to listen regularly, but I was so disgusted to hear these old ladies coming on to young black guys on air that I finally quit. And that isn't a racial thing, either, as I'd be just as disgusted if they had Bill Gates on air gushing over young Ukrainian ladies. Also, the only men they air are so offensively homosexual that it seems as though there was a conscious decision to drive away most of the audience.

    The fact that this Berliner guy lasted as long as he did doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Why didn't he quit years ago? Rats fleeing a sinking ship?

    Replies: @Buzz Mohawk, @J.Ross, @anonymous, @Moral Stone, @Twinkie, @Ganderson, @Cool Daddy Jimbo

    Why go public now? Reading the article, the author’s most likely motivation is how NPR covers the Israel-Gaza conflict. It’s the only particular example of bias he brings up from the last 3 years:

    “Oppressor versus oppressed. That’s meant highlighting the suffering of Palestinians at almost every turn while downplaying the atrocities of October 7, overlooking how Hamas intentionally puts Palestinian civilians in peril, and giving little weight to the explosion of antisemitic hate around the world.”

    The author doesn’t outright say it but based on positioning maybe hints at a connection between the newsroom demographics going from 10% to 40% minority in the post-Floyd era and the tenor of their Israel coverage. It will be interesting to see how this basically internal leftist conflict in opinion making institutions plays out in the coming year or so.

  • Claudine Gay Groper is back with more on what's going on among young people: Something I’ve noticed with my age cohort is that a lot of the girls who became loudly and proudly “queer” in college are also disproportionately the ones most into social justice meme ideology. Even the ones who seemed quite heterosexual in...
  • @anon
    @Moral Stone


    I think the MGTOW thing will lose steam as a specific entity because a lot of unhappy marriages and divorces are probably being prevented as we speak by people failing to form real-world relationships in the first place.

     

    I was under the impression that it wasn't just divorcees, but young guys in twenties who are essentially forever virgins (at least, sans pay for play).

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Reg Cæsar

    I claim no expertise here but I think those are classic “incels” or involuntarily celibate. Incels basically never had a relationship with women, whereas I got the impression a lot of MGTOWs did have relationships with the opposite sex and it ended poorly, hence a big focus on divorce and family court unfairness, alimony, custody of children, and so forth. At least from what I read on the internet, for precisely what that’s worth.

    • Agree: Bardon Kaldian
  • @Mark G.
    The manosphere was largely divided between the MGTOW types and the PUA types. The PUA movement died off because its methods did not work for average guys. It did not appreciate the importance of physical appearance enough. Most guys would be better off losing weight and working out rather than memorizing cheesy pickup lines if they want to attract women.

    For that reason I do not think that part of the manosphere will return to popularity. MGTOW is more likely to have a future. Young guys will not just drop out of chasing after women but will drop out of going to school and pursuing a career. Places like colleges, the military and big corporations are becoming hostile environments for young men.

    Replies: @Pixo, @JimDandy, @Known Fact, @R.G. Camara, @Moral Stone, @McFly

    The PUA crew had two useful pieces of wisdom, neither original. First, you miss every shot you don’t take, so take a lot of shots and don’t worry about the misses. Second, irrational confidence can actually improve your odds with women (fake it til you make it). A lot of threads from the PUA “movement” still exist, and blended into male-centric online spaces around self-improvement, weightlifting, etc. I would also add the takedown of PUA websites and other spaces was one of the early examples of an online purge. They got nuked within a year of each other and removed from major platforms, web hosting apparatuses, etc. Looking back it’s reminiscent of what would happen 5 years later to Parler.

    I think the MGTOW thing will lose steam as a specific entity because a lot of unhappy marriages and divorces are probably being prevented as we speak by people failing to form real-world relationships in the first place. So a specific type of unhappiness is being replaced by a society-wide malaise, which probably isn’t an improvement.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Moral Stone


    I think the MGTOW thing will lose steam as a specific entity because a lot of unhappy marriages and divorces are probably being prevented as we speak by people failing to form real-world relationships in the first place.

     

    I was under the impression that it wasn't just divorcees, but young guys in twenties who are essentially forever virgins (at least, sans pay for play).

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Reg Cæsar

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    @Moral Stone


    "First, you miss every shot you don’t take, so take a lot of shots and don’t worry about the misses. Second, irrational confidence can actually improve your odds with women (fake it til you make it). "
     
    When starting out I'd imagine that being shot down in flames and trying to "maintain frame" as they put it (i.e. pretend it doesn't bother you) must be the hardest thing to do, especially in a crowd where you've been publicly humiliated.

    Guy to girl I was with in a club - the 1976/77 changeover from hippy to punk


    "What's the matter, isn't my hair long enough?"

    "Your hair wouldn't be long enough if it was touching the floor".
     

    Ouch!


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKwVvSleM6w

  • Investor and Financial Times columnist Ruchir Sharma expands upon the concept of India as post-modern and pre-modern, as brought to our attention by iSteve commenter JohnnyWalker123: When people talk about how much colonialists benefited from colonialism, they basically have one really good example: India. Most places, such as in sub-Sahara Africa, the colonized weren't that...
  • @Twinkie
    @Almost Missouri

    While I share your caution for "First World" nations lurching toward Brazilianization...



    Likewise, is India’s “socialism for the rich and anarcho-capitalism for the poor” really worse than America’s—and the rest of the West’s—socialism for the rich and anarcho-tyranny for the poor?
     

     
    The fact that the answer is not an immediate "yes," here tells me that you lack perspective on this matter.

    Come on now. Have you ever been to India?

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Almost Missouri

    Anarcho-tyranny is objectively worse than anarcho-capitalism, to the extent any sorts of anarchy can be delineated from one another. But when comparing the masses of India to middle and lower class Americans, ceteris is not paribus. Yet, at least.

  • I started my new Taki's Magazine column: Of course, Twitter is no longer Twitter, it's what Elon Musk calls everything -- his 1990s financial services firm, his rocket ship company, his son, and lately Twitter -- X. If you are a supple-brained 16 year old (assuming I have any 16-year-old readers), this is likely no...
  • @Arclight
    I have often wondered how economically effective naming sponsorships really are. There is an outdoor concert venue near my hometown that has had a series of corporate names since it was built but everyone just calls it by the original non-corporate name even though it must have been at least 30 years since it started a cycle of corporate sponsorship titles. Of the last three sponsored names I cannot recall buying a product offered by any of them or even considering it.

    I assume the value of naming rights has been extensively studied and found to have some kind of net positive benefit for whatever company decides to do this, but to me it seems more like a dog marking its territory.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Matthew Kelly

    Yea the extensively studied value is execs being able to spend company money via the “marketing budget” to get awesome box suites at sought-after sporting/concert events.

  • Back in October, I wrote a Taki's column, "America, Jr.," about Justin Trudeau's pedal-to-the-metal population growth policy, graphing the growth rate thru July 1, 2023, the first day of the third quarter. Now the Canadian government has released population figures through the last day of the third quarter, October 31, 2023 and they were even...
  • @J.Ross
    If they were invading the west to chop vegetables and not scam, rape, and murder people, I'm not sure that people would have a problem with them.

    Replies: @Citizen of a Silly Country, @Moral Stone

    Not sure if you’re joking but the last thing our cheap labor high cost of living economy needs is more vegetable choppers. Just because someone “wants to work” doesn’t make them particularly useful.

  • There was a horrible earthquake in Morocco, and rescue efforts have lagged because government officials in Morocco didn't become government officials to have to do things. Also, they are waiting for orders from the semi-autocratic King of Morocco. But the king was always annoyed by the kind of duties that Queen Elizabeth II was so...
  • @Arclight
    @Bill P

    This is an interesting subject and one that I think will bubble to surface more frequently in the years to come. It's increasingly clear to elements of the right and left that at the federal level there is no such thing as democracy in our country, no matter how much the idea of protecting it is flogged by politicians and the media. Frankly there is also probably a latent understanding of this by a lot of normies but absent some kind of crisis or the right political messenger it remains under the surface.

    The question is what kind of precipitating event moves this issue to a level of national discussion - naturally, the ruling elite will argue that they are uniquely capable and ought to remain in charge, so a huge variable is whether a significant share of society would revolt through mass non-compliance, protests, etc. My personal view is the existing elites are completely unfit so it's important that there is a lot of messaging that undermines trust in them at the present so it's hard for many of them to hang on when the time comes. Frankly that's what's behind all of the obvious manipulation of information right now, whether it's censorship of certain stories on social media, gaslighting about Ukraine, Covid, etc - it's no different that the ChiComs talking about a record sorghum harvest or the Soviets trumpeting how many tractors their factories were churning out, they are relatively transparent attempts to assure the public all is well in hand, when in reality they know the music is going to stop in the not too distant future.

    Replies: @bomag, @Moral Stone

    Playing devil’s advocate, I was shocked by how many people went along with Covid BS and general media lies. Don’t underestimate the power of the US propaganda machine over the voting populace.

    Also, despite it all the US has considerable economic, geographic/military, etc. strengths compared to the rest of the world. There probably won’t be a huge event that shakes people’s faith in the ruling class.

    • Thanks: Arclight
    • Replies: @Kylie
    @Moral Stone

    "Playing devil’s advocate, I was shocked by how many people went along with Covid BS and general media lies. Don’t underestimate the power of the US propaganda machine over the voting populace."

    You wouldn't have been if you spent much time on the distaff side of social media. Their eagerness and ability to parrot the party line, march in lockstep and screech and shriek to drown out the opposition are horrifying. And they're getting worse.

    I thank God for my tiny coterie of sensible, conservative female friends, who are firmly on the "I will not comply" side.

    , @Anonymous
    @Moral Stone


    Playing devil’s advocate, I was shocked by how many people went along with Covid BS and general media lies
     
    What lies are you alleging were put forth?
  • @Chrisnonymous
    To be fair, you should call out Yarvin or other neo-monarchists by name and address their actual arguments.

    Yarvin always mentions some form of accountability for his monarchs, although I fail to see how this would really be practicable.

    More concerning is Yarvin's recent article on El Salvador, which reveals his ideas about how monarchy would work in the modern world to be pie in the sky fantastical hand-wavy stuff. Morocco's failure here is a clear argument against monarchy, and it's hard to see how any response would be made that didn't mostly consist of a No-True-Scotsman fallacy.

    Replies: @bomag, @Moral Stone, @Ian M.

    Like most political theorists (including everyone from Ayn Rand to Karl Marx), Yarvin is at his strongest understanding and critiquing the current regime. Building a new one that is stable and effective is a much harder task. The only people who have done so successfully were pragmatic empiricists, rather than theorists.

  • For once, the dog was happy to get home in less than than her usual 75 minutes. In Los Angeles, Hurricane Hilary, the first since 1939, has been a summer rarity but so far no more severe than days in January and February this year that saw five inches come down. It has been much...
  • @Achmed E. Newman
    @Anonymous


    I still can’t believe “officials” were calling for the evacuation of Catalina Island!
     
    That'd put people in much more danger than leaving them the hell alone.

    Thank you for the report. I still remember the TV pictures of the newsman in the Carolinas standing in the water talking about the severe flooding, and when they panned out you could see the water was up to his ankles in the road..

    I know what it's about for the Lyin Press, but, as for the officials, I have a hard time deciding how much of the stupidity is ass-covering and how much is just their enjoyment wielding power. Reminds me of something that went on 3 1/2 years ago ...

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    I don’t know much about pacific hurricanes (maybe no one does?) but in the gulf they can be unpredictably bad. I believe it was Sally for example that was cat2/3 but just sat on the coast for 2 days dumping water. Then there were 10 foot storm surges no one really saw coming. So officials err heavily on the side of caution/cya. If a bunch of people drown “because they didn’t evacuate” it’s an easier sell for the re-election campaign than “because we didn’t tell them to evacuate.”

  • Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa (2:04) is genius.
  • I’ve liked Hugh Grant’s roles a lot more now that his salacious personal life has freed him up to play the greasy Englishman he was always meant to be, instead of a lovesick pseudo-hero. Doubt that applies to an Oompa in a kid’s movie though.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @Moral Stone

    It's interesting what makes a man who could have had half the young women in London pay a not-very-pretty black prostitute. Maybe it's true that "you pay them to go away".

    I'm pleased she got something from the encounter apart from the obvious.


    "Thompson has been reported to have earned a total of $1.6 million from publicity related to her arrest with Grant. As a result, she and her manager, partner, and father of her children, Alvin C. Brown, bought a four-bedroom home in Beverly Hills. Thompson has said the money she earned from interviews and endorsements after the 1995 interrupted dalliance has allowed her to put her daughters through private school."
     

    Replies: @Jon

  • In recent years, Wikipedia has been infiltrated by a coterie of fanatical hate-filled science denialists who have managed to rule by fiat that any evidence for a connection between racial ancestry and intelligence is, by definition and without appeal, "pseudoscience" and anyone researching the subject or related subjects is a "pseudoscientist." No outlets or individuals...
  • @Buzz Mohawk
    In a normal world, this kind of oversight and obvious slop would relegate the channel to low-status. Oddly, here today we all live with creatures like Wikipedia in spite of their obvious shortcomings.

    Why?

    Why are there not more normal, competing, superior, accurate, truthful alternatives? Why don't we all just use those alternatives? (I realize my second question is purely imaginary, since there don't seem to be viable alternatives.)

    Truly, if "we" are so capable and "superior," then why don't "we" build our own Wikipedias? What is really going on here? I mean, we can bellyache all day long -- and we do here! -- but how is it that we even care about such drivel?

    Replies: @HammerJack, @I. Racist, @anonymous, @Charles Erwin Wilson, @Moral Stone, @Donke, @4HONESTY.com, @Pendragon

    Good question, one I’ve been thinking about as well. The simplest answer I’ve come up with is that sites like Wikipedia provide some of the most accurate and up-to-date information across a variety of topics. The caveat is that this excludes any topic with a potential political/moral angle the offends our commissars. But if you want a primer on diamagnetism or the battle of Hastings, Wikipedia is still by far the best single repository of such knowledge.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Moral Stone


    The simplest answer I’ve come up with is that sites like Wikipedia provide some of the most accurate and up-to-date information across a variety of topics. The caveat is that this excludes any topic with a potential political/moral angle the offends our commissars.
     
    I've long suspected that the major EGOT awards were untrustworthy, but the more obscure categories which the public didn't care about-- bluegrass, sound mixing, editing, lighting design, stunt coordination, "new age, ambient or chant"-- yes, that's a category-- would be less political and grain-of-saltworthy.

    But this may be naïve of me. You know what they say about academia and its low stakes...
  • From the Washington Post: Neurosurgeons, not surprisingly, get paid the most of all types of doctors, $920k annually in their primes. But they work a lot of hours, an average of 63 hours per week. (Cardiac surgeons work the most hours, 66.) Dermatologists are the 6th highest paid at $655k, but they only average 44...
  • @Anon
    Is Dermatology an intellectually demanding profession? How high an IQ does one need to be good at it?

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Hodag, @jimmymcnulty

    It’s not that intellectually demanding compared to many specialties but you need to be high IQ and diligent to do it. The disconnect is because it pays well, and residency applications are judged by board scores. So the smartest and hardest working med students often aim for dermatology because of the great quality of life and relatively high earnings potential, which is driven by the limited number of residency spots creating low supply relative to demand for dermatologists.

    Also I see those numbers are averages. They’re actually lower than a full time specialist in many of these fields would typically make, particularly some of the surgical ones.

    • Replies: @res
    @Moral Stone

    Thanks. It would be interesting to link Steve's data with this table of test scores by specialty. Unfortunately, no dermatology.
    https://www.aamc.org/data-reports/students-residents/data/table-b1-test-scores-and-experiences-first-year-residents-specialty

    Lots more at that site including age, sex, and race breakdowns by specialty. For example, in 2021 4% of active dermatologists were black. Ranked 29/48 of the specialties. Compared to 5.7% overall.

    This page ranks dermatology as top 5 for both Step 1 and 2 CK scores.
    https://medschoolinsiders.com/medical-student/ranking-doctor-specialties-by-step-scores/

    Dermatology has a relatively low residency match rate.
    https://mededits.com/residency-admissions/statistics/

    Chart 7 on page 10 of this has some interesting Step 2 CK score data.
    https://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Charting-Outcomes-MD-Seniors-2022_Final.pdf

    They give a chart with median and interquartile numbers for both matched and unmatched residents by specialty. The 25% score for NOT matched dermatology residents is above the mean of matches for all physicians.

    Chart 6 on page 9 does the same for Step 1 scores.

    More residency match data.
    https://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Advance-Data-Tables-2023_FINAL-2.pdf

  • From the Washington Post news section: The basic fact is that females are more delicate than males, so they tend to get hurt more playing sports. Despite the cleverness of contemporary sports surgeons and patching jocks back up, that can have long term consequences, such as arthritis following ACL injuries. In a moment of global...
  • @Arclight
    I have a bit of prior knowledge of ACL injuries in women when playing basketball or soccer thanks to my wife and a female friend, both of whom did so when playing competitively in high school or college. The article touches on a few things I didn't know (like how their hormonal cycle plays into it), but generally what my wife was told is that women's leg and hip alignment paired with weaker/looser joints make them far more prone to these injuries - and obviously always will.

    Our modern culture insists women are really no different than men, and this has definitely trickled down to sports even at the youth level coupled with a much more sports-obsessed parental/school culture than was the case when I was the same age as my kids. Toss in the not-entirely organic creation of women's pro soccer and basketball leagues and undoubtedly the number of women who have suffered serious sports injuries is much higher than a generation ago.

    No doubt we will be reading NYT articles in 10 years time blaming capitalism and/or the patriarchy for the plague of high-risk sports for women.

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist, @Moral Stone

    Because of their relatively wider hips women’s knees are more vulnerable to injury. There are other differences as well but basic anatomy is a big one.

    To Steve’s point about finding a less dangerous sport for women to play (eg netball vs basketball), I think that’s what most Americans think soccer is in the first place. Culturally (and for Title IX reasons), in the US it was a women’s sport at least until recently.

  • Commenter Calvin Hobbes writes: I'm not convinced Craig Robinson was smarter than Michelle Robinson since his various careers haven't shown proof of high achievement. But he has always been highly popular and made lots of valuable friends, like his Princeton teammate turned hedge fund manager John W. Rodgers. Michelle's big problem in life has been...
  • @AnotherDad

    In particular, sometime around 2000, the liberal Joyce Foundation offered Barack a salary of one million dollars per year to be their CEO ...
     
    Lemme guess: A nest of parasites, mostly feathering their own next, but also doing stuff that the guy who made the $$$ had no interest in and probably would be appalled by.

    Conservatives need to take these hijackings on. I really don't want government issuing "acceptable behavior" tickets, nor confiscating assets. But allowing the founders heirs to enforce sticking to the founder's agenda or/else simply stripping the endowment's assets and turning them over to heirs ... peachy.

    Let these ticks have to go out and panhandle to find living suckees willing to donate a blood meal.

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    I was curious about the foundation too, and you’re correct. The money came from a lumber magnate in the Midwest who made his fortune during the 1800s. His politics were broadly free-market and republican. His only heir was a daughter who inherited the fortune in the early 1900s. She set up the foundation quite modestly, and with relatively anodyne aims like violence reduction in Illinois. On her death in the 1940s, the foundation became very well endowed with the majority of her father’s fortune going to it.

    The foundation more or less stuck to her original goals under control of her attorneys/trust until the late 60s, when it hired a Mr. Daly (not that Daly, but probably related, I didn’t check) previously associated with JFK as CEO. He expanded its operations and it became a progressive cause oriented slush fund. Currently it disburses 50m a year on a 750m endowment. It does suggest that it exists in significant part to pay its own administrators if they were willing to offer 1m per year just to the CEO, 20 years ago (BO’s reported offer at the time). That said, the money they do disburse after all of the employees take their cut could still be very detrimental to civilization- it’s cheap to fund chaos.

    I wonder how much untaxed money is sitting out there under control of progressive activists. More importantly, how did it come to be under their control? The founder of this particular foundation appears to have had no intention of it turning into what it is, and it retained her vision for almost 30 years after her death. But at some point everyone who knows the founder is dead, and the goals of the foundation become up for grabs. Why don’t conservatives ever take over a fund the way liberals constantly do? Is there a legal or regulatory reason or is it lack of trying?

    • Thanks: AnotherDad
  • From my February 25, 2008 article: Michelle Obama And The Rage Of A Privileged Class Steve Sailer 02/25/2008 For a year now, I’ve been pointing out that, while Sen. Barack Obama‘s brain may be in the center, his heart is on the far left. So it might be of some interest to find out more...
  • @Altai3

    And, right on schedule, the Great Awokening arrived around the beginning of Obama’s second term in early 2013.
     
    I am still not convinced the Obama admin triggered it since it seemed to bubble up from the bottom (In the press it was games journalists and other niche nerdy sites which went what we now call "woke" before mainstream press seemed to know anything about it, see the whole "GamerGate" fracas) due to the rise of Tumblr and female-dominated social media bringing about not typical identity politics but a kind of weird mutated post-modern version more akin to a resurgent third wave feminism. Tumblr and the alike foreshadowed Twitter and the establishment media (That's why it all seemed so weird and had such a runaway tone) not the other way around, the only exception was when through TDS propaganda they turned progressive women into neocons on Russia, the full consequences of which we haven't yet seen but it's about 350k dead so far in Ukraine and the dollar's decline as global reserve currency has been pushed into overdrive.

    But this is quite serious in consequence, Affirmative Action was a quite cheap way of having some form of elite power sharing with blacks, ending it doesn't bode well for them but then nothing really has since the high water mark of civil rights.

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    Certainly the Obama administration made some conscious decisions to gin up identity politics, using federal power (dear colleague letter) and the presidential megaphone (if I had a son he’d look like Trayvon Martin).

    However, your comment gets more to the heart of the matter – run-away wokeness was significantly driven by social media. It accelerated the purity spiral and virtue signaling among progressives tremendously. I think this explains why companies seem afraid of their employees’ liberal sensitivities. Since it affected primarily younger people it appeared to come from the bottom up from management’s perspective.

  • At least the movie "Hidden Figures" claimed that blacks got America into outer space, which would be cool if true. In contrast, the current film "Flamin' Hot" claims (dubiously) that a Latino invented a junk food brand extension.
  • @Altai3
    At least it's not quite just another "Moneyball" clone like all the other films of it's emerging genre like Ford v Ferrari, Tetris, Air etc even if it sounds like it's well within the lines of the "genre".

    In the old days we had the scientist predicting a disaster that the authorities wouldn't listen to. In our new age of neoliberalism we have people engaging in sport/commerce trying to get their bosses to listen to their ideas to make their bosses more money. With essentially no stakes for society at all.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Mr. Blank, @Steve Sailer

    Sport/commerce can be societally valuable if the product involves new technology or engineering – FvF (or prediction of disaster -The Big Short). Movies about creating a novel brand (societally useless) tend to be terrible, as in Air.

  • The Iowa and Wisconsin NCAA football programs tend to specialize as destinations for white players, rather like how Gonzaga's basketball program in Spokane built itself by being the place for a white high school players to go. Last fall, the Iowa Buckeyes even started two white cornerbacks. The older one, Riley Moss, was drafted in...
  • @Steve Sailer
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    "Moss isn’t a terrific coverage cornerback, per se, but he is the truest “ball hawk” I’ve seen in a long time."

    Sounds like a candidate to get switched to safety.

    When I was a football fan 50 years ago, the top defensive backs might average close to an interception per game. That's because the main passing strategy back then was: "Heave it downfield and see what happens."

    Replies: @PaceLaw, @Moral Stone, @Feryl, @Brutusale

    If he plays consistently it will probably be at safety because, wait for it, he’s too slow to do man-coverage in the NFL.

  • Everybody is worked up over artificial intelligence. Is it a threat to humanity? Will the robots decide to kill us all like in Terminator? Is AI the explanation for the Fermi Paradox? Elon Musk wants a pause on AI development. Eliezer Yudkowsky says in Time: Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it...
  • @Anonymous
    What is called "AI" today is not actually "I" and thus not a threat to humanity. Only practically useful robots are/will be fundamentally nothing more than mechanical turks, so no, they will not decide to kill us. AI is not an explanation for Fermi paradox. The true explanation is that there is no paradox because almost all parameters in the Drake equation are too hugely uncertain.

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    When we think about space travel and the Fermi paradox we often assume some sort of faster-than-light travel. If we really are stuck at sub-light speeds, given the amount of energy required to get to anything close to light speed, it makes the Fermi paradox much less of one.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Moral Stone

    It doesn't take any extra amount of energy to get to light speed over one-hundredth that speed. Getting that fast takes only TIME. (There's no drag out there.) It's a vocation for long-lived creatures.

    Got a bottle of wine.
    (Pass it over.)
    Got a broken white line.
    (I'm still sober.)
    Ain't nothing but time between this silver spacecraft and that New Jersey line...

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Moral Stone

    Ahhh! What'd I just say? It doesn't take any extra POWER to get up to higher speeds, just time. You're right in that you still need more energy (fuel), for accelerating to c and a like amount for decelerating again.

    Sorry for the mistake, Mr. Stone.

  • From National Review: Nicholas Wade was the genetics reporter for the New York Times' excellent Science section for the first decade of this century. He waged gallant war for years on the Race Does Not Exist conventional wisdom that sprouted, so far as I can tell, from entrepreneur Craig Venter's disingenuous speech at the 2000...
  • @War for Blair Mountain
    Did the Covid-19 virus kayak from China to America?…or backstroke it’s way over?

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Moral Stone

    I read it came over on a giant balloon or something

    • LOL: Paul Jolliffe
  • From NBC San Diego: San Diego Police Hunting Dozens Connected to Crime Ring That Targets Asian Elders By Dave Summers • Published January 18, 2023 • ... The San Diego Police Department is asking for the public’s help taking down what investigators call an international organized theft ring that has been operating in San Diego...
  • @Anonymous
    Can someone explain to me why Gypsies have a bad reputation in Europe and seem to be a despised group?

    Honest question, I'm 29 and have never quite understood their story.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @HammerJack, @JimDandy, @Nachum, @Colin Wright, @Bill Jones, @R.G. Camara, @J.Ross, @tyrone, @AnotherDad, @Art Deco, @Simple Pseudonuymic Handle

    They commit a disproportionate amount of crime, particularly theft. And they have a worse reputation among Europeans (particularly eastern) because that’s where Gypies are more concentrated.

  • From my new column in Taki's Magazine: Admitting the Unthinkable Steve Sailer January 18, 2023 Institutional momentum continues to build in wealthy parts of the country where blacks were historically least oppressed by slavery and Jim Crow for cashing in white guilt over George Floyd as racial reparations before whites wise up (or cynical Asians...
  • @Auld Alliance
    Okay, Steve, or anyone else, I am not from California or indeed anywhere in the US and am really struggling to understand the rationale behind this stuff.

    It is a political move, right, coming from the Democratic side?

    And it is not really going to happen - especially not in California where blacks are only 6% or so of the population, with large voters groups like Latinos and Asians who absolutely despise blacks compared to YT, the only person who gives them anything approximating a fair deal.

    So the blacks start drooling over their $350,000 or $5million or whatever this week`s figure is, then they are told they are not getting it? Do they not get a bit upset at that? With the Democrats?

    And are the Asians, and Latinos pleased by such Democrat reparation proposals?

    I cannot see how the Democrats gain - or am I utterly missing the point?

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Prester John, @Rebunga, @AnotherDad

    My read is that, since Cali and the Bay Area in particular are one party states, this is an intra-Democratic Party positioning exercise. Who will prove to be the most important constituency? And while black people are numerically smaller than Latinos (and other groups are growing), they remain the moral center of the Democratic Party. That is a powerful position given the amount of virtue signaling done by progressives.

    • Agree: ben tillman
    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Moral Stone


    My read is that, since Cali and the Bay Area...
     
    The use of 'Cali' to refer to anything but the city in Columbia should be a hanging offense.
  • From my review in Taki's Magazine: Read the whole thing there. I'm carrying on my December iSteve�
  • @Muggles

    In sport you never get to be ‘good enough’, there is always somebody else who will be given your place. And on the whole, professional athletes tend to be more altruistic and less horrible than chefs, directors or conductors or executives. They got to be where they got because they were good at it.
     
    You seem to be making a basic error re: these roles.

    The "athlete" even on a team sport is just doing their individual performance as best they can. He might interact closely with certain other team mates (pitcher-catcher, QB-Receiver, etc.) but the individual doesn't "run the team" more than that.

    As such there will always be, eventually, someone who can do your role (or arguably) better than you do now.

    As for directors, chefs, conductors, executives, et. al. they are team leaders. Managers of groups of people. They do certain individual things (lead meetings, wave batons, direct underlings, add/subtract personnel, etc.) but for the most part rely on their teams of performers to succeed.

    Anyone who's ever been a manager of others quickly learns that is harder than it looks. You can't force anyone to do anything. You can punish/reward and the vast gap of in between. You can select, hire, fire, merge duties, innovate team dynamics, etc.

    Try herding cats (or dachshunds) and learn why being "nice" doesn't always work. Of course many overdo that or have a learning curve. Some never learn. But when you are judged by a group's performance and outcome, you can't be Mr./Ms. Nice always. Motivating others to excel or do hard things requires toughness and sometimes being harsh. But often, just getting into the heads of subordinates.

    Throwing around "sociopath" like it means something in this context is weak. Yes, some managers/team leaders are that, but many more are not. Really good team leaders inspire confidence and voluntary discipline and execution. Also depends on who is in the team/group.

    What works on some groups doesn't work on all.

    Altai doesn't cite his experience in managing others.

    It can bring out the best in a person or the worst. Often, just a mix depending on circumstances.

    Many high performing individuals are hardly models of emotional/moral/psychological stability or normalcy. A significant fraction of say, pro football players were or end up as hard core criminals.

    Replies: @Old Prude, @Dmon, @Moral Stone

    I think you’re missing his point. If a job doesn’t select consistently for talent and ability (because none is required or because the outcomes are too opaque), narcissistic self-promoters tend to displace the merely competent.

  • As genetic data continues to pour in, the scientific evidence is piling up that, not surprisingly, some of the behavioral differences among human ancestral groups (a.k.a., races) have their roots in different evolutionary paths in different parts of the world. But, it would be embarrassing for many important people to admit they were wrong by...
  • @Dave Pinsen
    Now that prominent Dems are calling for us to become self-sufficient in cutting edge microchips (and also, insanely, to mobilize for war with China over Taiwan), I wonder if any of them will call for suspending the anti-racist lunacy that has now infected our scientific institutions.

    If this is serious enough to risk war with China over, surely it's serious enough to stop handicapping ourselves by feeding the ressentiment of our academically weakest demographic.

    You don't see China shifting its institutions toward flattering Uighurs or Tibetans instead of trying to conquer nuclear fusion.

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/1582897293719924737?s=20&t=VC2pYkZHmIx8vY-mL48u5g

    Replies: @IHTG, @Peter Akuleyev, @Jack D, @Moral Stone, @AnotherDad, @Anon

    I would argue decoupling from Chinese manufacturing capacity to the extent possible is a good national policy initiative. Done correctly, it will help onshore jobs and build domestic technical and supply chain capacity for things like cutting-edge microchips. This should also help raise domestic wages in some industries, especially if for obvious reasons many of these jobs aren’t available to Chinese nationals who companies have been using to undercut those wages.

    Regarding war over Taiwan, I tend to think economic decoupling makes it less likely. One reason Russia was comfortable invading Ukraine is that it has the whip-hand over Europe in terms of energy; whether things really work out for Russia regarding the invasion or not is another matter. Similarly, China may be less likely to invade Taiwan if it knows it can’t inflict any economic or technological damage (eg cutting of microchip supplies) on Western nations.

  • Back in August 2020, the mighty American Israel Political Action Committee was out to get Democratic Congresswoman and Squad member Ilhan Omar (D-Mogadishu) for mentioning that Jews donate a lot to the Democratic Party. AIPAC tried to prove her wrong by pouring in millions in Jewish donations to her rival. But during 2020's Racial Reckoning,...
  • Also the total number of votes was much lower in the off-season election. 110k vs 170k. That could have an effect. It’s possible the marginal voters who can get turned out (or farmed) in a presidential year break heavily to Ilhan.

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @hhsiii
    @Moral Stone

    She got fewer votes than her last opponent got. I guess it was easier to rock the vote during peak COVID.

    Replies: @Barnard

    , @Servant of Gla'aki
    @Moral Stone


    Also the total number of votes was much lower in the off-season election.
     
    Yes, but there's still about a 15 percent decline, as compared to the 2018 (midterm) numbers.
  • The incident that may have outraged Elon Musk into trying to buy Twitter may have been Twitter's banning of the satirical Christian website The Babylon Bee for joking about the Biden Administration's Admiral Levine after the ex-high school linebacker was named Woman of the Year by some completely non-satirical publication: Some things are too sacred...
  • @Abolish_public_education
    I don't use tw, except for when someone around here posts video of a violent altercation. For the price that EM is offering, he could build 5,000 competitive services from scratch.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Bill Jones

    Twitter and other social media are pretty classic monopolies/oligopolies due to network effects. It’s not trivial to build a successful competing platform. And that’s before you get into the Parler scenario where even if there is some success the new platform itself will be de-listed at app stores which control access to it for the vast majority of people.

  • From the New York Times news section: Doctors Debate Whether Trans Teens Need Therapy Before Hormones Clinicians are divided over new guidelines that say teens should undergo mental health screenings before receiving hormones or gender surgeries. By Azeen Ghorayshi Jan. 13, 2022 An upsurge in teenagers requesting hormones or surgeries to better align their bodies...
  • I suspect that doctors who don’t agree with how these issues are being handled are the least likely to become trans teen specialists, whatever that’s called. Therefore they’re the least likely to be writing these guidelines in the first place. So there is a degree of ideological self-reinforcement happening in that part of the industry. And you’re obviously right to call out financial self-interest in all of this. Reminds me of the fortunes that were made prescribing “non-addictive” opioids.

    • Agree: ben tillman
  • To follow up on Sunday's post about trends in high school football, I'm wondering about the rise and fall of private high school football programs. Unfortunately, I don't have much data on the subject. To start, here is MaxPreps' national top 25 high school football rankings: # School State Ovr. 1 Mater Dei (Santa Ana)...
  • @Marquis
    It’s more likely the simpleton that wrote the article on HS football relies on reputation than the school reputation attracts all these kids. They used to do similar rankings in basketball. But then states changed rules to allow interstate play, and a bunch of teams nobody’s heard of beat all these “top 25” teams. Turns out the national HS sports beat doesn’t attract the best journalists.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @ATBOTL

    This is probably accurate. There are certainly standout HS programs but ranking the top 25 is impossible as a practical matter. Too many schools, too little competition between the highest ranked ones, too much variability year to year, so forth.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Moral Stone

    Sure, but it's as good a list as any for my purposes of seeing what kind of schools become football powers.

    , @Buffalo Joe
    @Moral Stone

    Moral, good points. Check the teams that play out of conference and out of state games. Enrollment places teams in NYS but in Ohio the best teams play whoever will schedule them.

    , @Rooster1111
    @Moral Stone

    Any national ranking system of high school athletics is tough to get perfect. However, there are perennial power houses that either 1.) recruit or 2.) have a massive number of students - as Steve mentioned in his article. I know big teams from the East Coast do fly to CA for games against other big programs - that provides a barometer of how good a program and the teams they play afterwards really are.

    An interesting note - many of the big programs, even Catholic, in MD play there games during the day on Saturday whereas HS football is traditionally a Friday Lights nighttime sport. They play during the day on Saturdays because numerous fights, shootings, drugs, etc. we’re too prevalent on Friday nights… that may give you an indication of what the players and the “community” look like…

  • From the New York Times news section: I.e., legally privileged lawyer-client communications. obtained by The New York Times reveal the extent to which the group has worked with its lawyers to gauge how far its deceptive reporting practices can go before running afoul of federal laws. The documents, a series of memos written by the...
  • This accusation of spying from the NYT that has miraculously “obtained” privileged information following a spurious FBI investigation into a political enemy.

  • From The Guardian:
  • Based on a quick survey of the author’s Twitter feed, the Guardian has a real-life Titania McGrath reviewing a performance by the satirical caricature. It probably struck too close to home.

    • LOL: Daniel H
    • Replies: @Tiny Duck
    @Moral Stone

    Example number 589872771 of why conservatives do not "get" humor.

    the jokes don land they punch down they do not challenge.

    They are LITERALLY hahahaha marginalized people suck white people rule

    Whets funny about that?

    This guy is the most boring comedian out there. But he is a genius in that if you say so, you are trying to cancel him! Now we all have to pretend mediocre people are great because of cancel culture.

    If you find a mean spirited one joke pony amusing that says more about you than anything.

    Replies: @JimDandy, @Wade Hampton, @fish, @Jus' Sayin'...

  • In other words, Trump's "extraordinary effort" didn't take much thwarting: Trump: "Do it!" Officials: "We'll resign." Trump: "OK, you win."
  • I wonder to what degree any of these “inside the administration” stories are actually true. Obviously the press have no standards for accuracy regarding Trump, and I’m sure more than a few officials need to pretend they stood up to the Orange Man to justify working with him at all to their DC peers.

    Aside from the terribly inaccurate Russia stuff, I remember it seemed like every week some new story would come out that couldn’t be proven or disproven. Diet Coke button on his desk, rudely overfeeding some koi fish, gorilla channel, etc. It makes me question how much we actually know about the trump admin – could be very little.

    • Replies: @James J O'Meara
    @Moral Stone

    "It makes me question how much we actually know about the trump admin – could be very little."

    Well, that's a start. Now extrapolate that to what these same liars tell you about every previous admin -- were you there? Think of JFK's carousing and drugging, FDR being in a wheelchair, Wilson's stroke, etc.

    Then extrapolate that to "world 'history'" and realize it's all fabricated; not just the phony religious stuff (Moses, Christ, Mohammed, all fake) but as per the alternate chronology articles here on UNZ, even so called "secular" history (Caesar, pyramids, etc.) There's no bird/God's eye view of world history, just some dates and pottery shards some guy "interprets".

    Try this out: The "Romans" were Phoenicians, and the Phoenicians were Jews:

    http://mileswmathis.com/caesar.pdf

    Or do you think all They do is change their names (Garfinkel to Garland)?

  • From Science: Vikings in paradise: Were the Norse the first to settle the Azores? Seafarers may have come and gone from lush archipelago more than 1000 years ago 4 OCT 20213:00 PM BYMICHAEL PRICE In 1427, the Portuguese navigator Diogo de Silves first set foot on an uninhabited, Sun-kissed island with white sand beaches, crystal...
  • I wonder what the minimum viable population for a fairly isolated (I’m assuming) colony would be? Did they need ten pairs of men/women to make a go of it, or 200? Maybe there were places they could get to and even live on for a time, but functional distance from home (and thus a larger population of potential mates) using existing technology made colonization infeasible. Just speculating.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Moral Stone


    I wonder what the minimum viable population for a fairly isolated (I’m assuming) colony would be?
     
    Back at the dawn of mtDNA archeo-genomics a couple of decades back, I remember hearing that Native Americans all descended from one of only four women to settle and reproduce in the New World, but I haven't heard anything about this hypothesis since. I don't know if it was refuted by later research, or just somehow became politically incorrect to mention, or maybe no one finds it very interesting. If true, it would suggest you don't need a lot of settlers even for huge colonies, but the narrow genetic foundation would help explain why the Indians got hammered by Eurasian diseases a few millennia later.

    ------



    They also saw an increase in charcoal particles and a dip in the abundance of native tree pollens, perhaps pointing to humans cutting down and burning trees to clear space for livestock to graze, Raposeiro says.
     

     
    Accustomed as we are nowadays to mechanical help, we forget how much work it used to be to cut down forests and clear pastures. If you doubt it, try removing just one stump from the ground without mechanical help, then consider that you would have to do thousands of these to make suitable cattle pasturage. (Cutting and clearing the trees themselves is plenty of work too of course, but felling trees is hazardous and may annoy your neighbors, so it is less available as a real life test.) Perhaps the Vikings found a way to burn off entire forests, but a general conflagration ought to leave a bit more of a trace than "an increase in charcoal particles", such as they ought to be seeing a Troy-like layer of blackened everything if the Vikings had done that.

    Replies: @Wilkey

  • From the Daily Mail: PUBLISHED: 17:18 EDT, 22 July 2021 | UPDATED: 17:22 EDT, 22 July 2021 I've been an outspoken critic of performance-enhancing drugs since the 1990s. A question I've been wondering about lately, however, is: What if PEDs really aren't that deadly? What if they provide more health benefits than their costs? For...
  • The two deaths you mentioned appear to have been unrelated to steroids (cocaine overdose and hemangioma in the brain).

    Your question is an interesting one. It has become more common for healthy people to use PEDs including HGH and (relatively) low dose testosterone (TRT) to look better and improve their quality of life. I’m curious to see if there winds up being a noticeable effect on longevity when it is prescribed and managed by a physician.

    Also interesting, drugs like DNP that enhance fat burning have been used historically to aid weight loss (nb – the effects of too high a dose are horrendous and the therapeutic index is narrow). Could safer versions be an unequivocal benefit to longevity in that it could combat all of the health ills from our obesity epidemic?

    I would guess there is still considerable benefit to be reaped by the average American re: better living through chemistry.

    • Agree: Old Prude
    • Replies: @SaneClownPosse
    @Moral Stone

    "Could safer versions be an unequivocal benefit to longevity in that it could combat all of the health ills from our obesity epidemic? "

    How about making it illegal for corporations to produce the cheap, junk food that is the main cause of obesity?

    Same direction, reduce cancer rates by not manufacturing products and foods that cause cancers.

    PS The USN, at least back in the 90s, was handing out Inderal (beta blocker) to the shipboard electronic technicians performing repairs on electronic gear that involved soldering tiny bits together, while cruising the world's oceans to make them safe for Freedom and Democracy.

  • Exactly 60% of respondents have strong opinions one way or another, almost equally split between the two poles. The other 40% have weak opinions, also about equally distributed. Overall the two responses that could be categorized as saying CRT celebrities are cynical got 52.1% while the two responses implying they are sincere got 47.9%. That...
  • I think Chomsky addressed this same question with an interviewer. “If you didn’t believe what you do, you wouldn’t be sitting here.” They are probably selected to believe it.

    • Agree: Desiderius
  • From the New York Times: Return to Office? Some Women of Color Aren’t Ready After more than a year of virtual work, employers are making plans to get back to the physical workplace. That has many workers worrying about the return of microaggressions and bias, too. By Ruchika Tulshyan June 23, 2021 “I actually like...
  • Asking the commentariat, has anyone seen this hair touching phenomenon in person? Genuinely curious.

    The rest of the complaints seem like normal office stuff (I have to put on a nice face even if I’m stressed!) repackaged through a race-based lens.

    • Replies: @S. Anonyia
    @Moral Stone

    I observed it in high school (late 2000s, right as Obama entered the scene) and it was a kind of overly flattering gesture from a white girl towards a nerdy black girl. But have never seen it in a professional environment, or any other environment since.

    Replies: @Gjkjjbvvgb

    , @Harry Baldwin
    @Moral Stone

    Has anyone seen this hair touching phenomenon in person?

    Never. It seems like some bizarre mass delusion. I wouldn't even be aware of it if it weren't for this site.

    BTW, I have a conservative friend who works for Google. He's half-black, and what he found exhausting about being in the office was coworkers coming up to him after every shooting of a black criminal and asking him, "Are you doing okay?"

    Replies: @R.G. Camara

    , @Nicholas Stix
    @Moral Stone

    I have never seen it, and neither has anyone else in my family. However, my son who, courtesy of his South Asian mother, has thick, lustrous, dark hair, had female friends in high school ask to touch his hair.

    , @ben tillman
    @Moral Stone


    Asking the commentariat, has anyone seen this hair touching phenomenon in person? Genuinely curious.
     
    Of course. I've done it. I was 5 or 6, and my aunt's boyfriend was in my grandparents' house. His hair was longer than the hair of all the black students who had been in my home because my father was their faculty advisor.

    Replies: @anon, @ben tillman, @Bill Jones

    , @Jimthebeav
    @Moral Stone

    No

    , @R.G. Camara
    @Moral Stone

    It actually comes from other black women. Black women with straight or straighter hair ---i.e. "good hair"--- will condescendingly ask rivals with kinkier hair if they can "touch" their hair. It's a put down and meant to be. Black women are just transferring this onto Beckys off of their light-skinned, paper-bag-test passing sistas.

    Replies: @Clyde, @Matttt

    , @Anon
    @Moral Stone


    Asking the commentariat, has anyone seen this hair touching phenomenon in person? Genuinely curious.
     
    I find it hard to imagine in an adult professional work environment. And it's a "dog that didn't bark" issue. I can see that this might happen and not become public because the black person doesn't want to upset work relationships, but if there were constant hair touching, for some percentage of them they would bubble to the surface in Twitter, where names would be named, smartphone videos would be posted, jobs would be lost, and a thousand newspaper op-eds by BIPOCs would bloom. Where are these cases? Give me links to news stories about the three most salient documented hair touching incidents of the past five years: You can't.

    “I actually like not having to go into the office and be constantly reminded that I’m the only Black woman there.”
     
    This is thanks to affirmative action in most cases. This woman probably is being carried as a token black employee, and is the least burdensome candidate interviewed. The company would be perfectly happy if she were gone and they didn't have to babysit such tokens.

    This is a corporate equivalent of the higher education mismatch problem, as described here by Gail Heriot, law school professor and an excellent, articulate, prolific dissident member of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights:

    Talented minority students end up distributed among colleges and universities in patterns that are very different from those of their white and Asian counterparts. When the schools that are highest on the academic ladder relax their admissions policies in order to admit more underrepresented minority students, schools one rung down must do likewise or they will have far fewer underrepresented minority students than they would have had under a general color-blind admissions policy. The problem is thus passed on to the schools another rung down, which respond similarly. As a result, students from underrepresented minorities today are concentrated at the bottom of the distribution of entering academic credentials at most selective colleges and universities.
     
    In corporate America blacks are doing jobs that are above their level (while complaining that they "work twice as hard" to get results as whites do ... quite true, since dumber people have to work harder than smarter people). If everyone were hired on ability only, blacks would have black coworkers.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    , @Toteswoke
    @Moral Stone

    Not once in my entire life! Couple that with my revulsion towards every black woman on the planet sans Candice Owens, the fact that most of them are bald, and that every time this fake issue is brought up socially my exclusively white social circle shares the same exact sentiment.

    Most people aren’t as racist as I am though...not yet. My stance has gone from compassionate and possibly patronizing to a dash of early denial, hyper focus, and now settling down to hyper aware, protective, guarded a commitment to keeping an arm’s distance, and a slow seething boil of resentment quick to point out black failure so fast that regressive dem girls sometimes cry.

    , @mmack
    @Moral Stone

    In this day and age you’re lucky you’re still allowed to shake hands with each other in a corporate setting.

    So hair touching? That’s definitely a no-go and something I’ve never seen for any woman of any skin hue in the work world.

    Replies: @vhrm

    , @Paperback Writer
    @Moral Stone

    There's a scene in Chris Rock's Good Hair where he asks the proverbial group of bros in the barbershop whether they've ever run their fingers through a black woman's hair. The response is comedy gold.

    I suspect this is the source of the big lie.

    Good Hair is that example of Chris Rock commentary that almost but not quite gets it. He points out a lot of funny, true, stuff, but he doesn't get to the heart of the matter, which is that nappy, woolly hair is ugly. Black people have some advantages over whites: height, muscularity, etc. I have no problems admitting this. But their hair is ugly.

    Good hair:

    https://i2.wp.com/faintlyfamiliar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Veronica-Lake-Hair.jpg?resize=960%2C1000&ssl=1

    , @Wency
    @Moral Stone

    Doesn't really fit the bill, but I'll share one anecdote.

    At one point in my mid-20s, a friend had a black girlfriend who had a rather elaborate 'do that I'll compare roughly to this:

    https://blackbeautybombshells.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/FC5FF533-6B98-4E82-951B-07C6C75BD11E.jpeg

    A bunch of people (everyone except her white) got together for dinner at their apartment one time, and we were chatting afterwards, when she said, "Ah, it's time for me to do my hair." She then proceeded, in an exhibition that she pretended wasn't an exhibition, to start "doing" her hair in the middle of the living room. I didn't really understand most of what was involved, but it involved a lot of spraying from a squirt bottle and might have taken 20 minutes.

    Anyway, it was pretty clear to me that she wanted us to watch, and it was very distracting as we were trying to converse about other things, but I have little doubt that the way she recalled the event afterwards was "one time I went to this dinner party with a bunch of white people, and they just stared at my hair the whole time -- a few of them even tried to touch it."

    Replies: @Dieter Kief

  • From the NYT op-ed page: Are Vets and Pharmacists Showing How to Make Careers Work for Moms? June 9, 2021 By Nicholas Kristof Opinion Columnist Veterinarians and pharmacists may be able to help us with more than our pets and our pills. Perhaps they can also guide America to a society that works better for...
  • @kaganovitch
    @Moral Stone

    Shocking indeed that the completely normal couple Claudia and Sheryl have issues with how the vast majority of biological parents seem perfectly happy to divvy up parenting responsibilities along gender lines.

    Sheryl is Kristoff's wife , not Claudia's.

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    Whoops my bad.

  • Shocking indeed that the completely normal couple Claudia and Sheryl have issues with how the vast majority of biological parents seem perfectly happy to divvy up parenting responsibilities along gender lines.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @Moral Stone

    Shocking indeed that the completely normal couple Claudia and Sheryl have issues with how the vast majority of biological parents seem perfectly happy to divvy up parenting responsibilities along gender lines.

    Sheryl is Kristoff's wife , not Claudia's.

    Replies: @Moral Stone

  • From the New York Times news section: In other words, your tax dollars aren't going toward cool futuristic stuff. But that is about the only conclusive finding in the classified intelligence report, the officials said. And while a forthcoming unclassified version, expected to be released to Congress by June 25, will present few other firm...
  • Would some advanced military project become public knowledge via a UFO report? That strikes me as unlikely, although it also seems unlikely that they could keep much of a secret these days in the first place.

    • Agree: Gabe Ruth
  • In other words, Haiti is just being Haiti, but, to bring in more future Democrat voters, the Biden Administration is going to pretend that the ordinary and permanent conditions in Haiti are "extraordinary and temporary," at least until another earthquake or hurricane comes along they they can then use as justification for letting in more...
  • @Rob McX
    By these criteria, they're just a couple of famines away from letting in 100m Africans.

    Replies: @anonymouseperson, @Moral Stone, @Anonymous, @Lurker, @anon

    They’re zero famines away. They just haven’t embraced the electoral possibilities yet.

  • Next week's anniversary of George Floyd's death is shaping up to be an orgy of self-humiliation. For a taste of what is impending, here is the big British science journal Nature: We will be launching a news internship for Black journalists later this year. We are taking further steps to diversify our authors, reviewers and...
  • It still amazes me the George Floyd is the guy. Multiple felon, drugged out of his mind. Violent, pointed a gun at a pregnant woman’s belly. But I guess that’s the point. If they can make a saint out of that fuck up what can’t they do?

    • Replies: @Jim Christian
    @Moral Stone


    It still amazes me the George Floyd is the guy. Multiple felon, drugged out of his mind.
     
    Every single police shooting of blacks involves arch criminals with multiple felony warrants, plus multiple driving/registration/insurance offenses involving the concerned vehicle they're driving. Every one of them. They celebrate career criminals, cancers in their own neighborhoods. They're the ones who should be humiliated.
    , @bro3886
    @Moral Stone

    The fact that he was a scumbag is the point, they're grinding your face in your subjugation. The left supports buns shitting in the streets not because they have compassion for the homeless but because they hate you and your society. Literally telling you eat shit.

  • Over the last year, consumer spending has suddenly reverted to 1950s-style keeping-up-with-the-Jones materialism. People are buying appliances and upgrading their home furnishings. Backyard recreation is suddenly huge. From the New York Times business news via Marginal Revolution: In the 1960s, it became fashionable to proclaim the superiority of experiences over possessions, so over time consumer...
  • Man I didn’t read the whole article but are we meant to be shocked that spending on “stuff you use at home” went up during a pandemic that kept everyone home? For about 8 months you couldn’t buy home workout equipment, for example of the demand.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    @Moral Stone

    Mostly true. I lucked out and found a used retro (original) Soloflex for $175 though.

    https://twitter.com/dpinsen/status/1252019032510943235?s=21

    Replies: @D. K.

  • From the New York Times news section: It was so devastated that nobody has managed to adjust in 50 years. I live a few blocks from a giant freeway. I should get some Biden Bux for the devastation. Seriously, the big devastation to the neighborhood due to the freeway only happened recently when Mayor Garcetti...
  • They gloss right over *why* white Americans suddenly were reliant on the interstate highway system to move their magic dirt via automobile out to the suburbs, and just commute in to work.

    And yes this bill isn’t meant to build things, it’s meant to hand a trillion dollars to a whole new generation of community-organized malcontents, coming soon to an area near you.

  • The shooting of Ahmaud Arbery, a saintly "jogger," by a white man in the South while trying to take the man's gun was used by the national press as George Floyd 0.9 in early May 2020 to whip up racial hatred, which exploded catastrophically later in the month in the Racial Reckoning. Not surprisingly, it...
  • I think the media/protestors/DNC would prefer an absolutely angelic victim of police violence (assuming the skin colors fit the narrative). After all, even propagandists understand the value of the truth, better to have it on your side if you can. But reality is that most people who get shot by the police are repeat felons and/or unstable. Who else fights with the police or aggressively resists arrest.

    Regarding the enormity of the lie, I forget who said that in some Communist country the point of a lie was to humiliate, break the person forced to tell it. So the bigger the better. Stick a halo on Floyd’s head. Everyone knows he pointed a gun at a pregnant woman’s belly, which makes the feigned deference to his sainthood even more soul crushing, and thus delectable to our elites.

  • Somebody suggested to me recently that younger generations neither achieve nor aspire to being cool. That may explain some otherwise puzzling artifacts, such as Twitter's What's Happening alerts: But people are not just defending the Biden Administration by pointing to old Republicans making similar slips. People are also complaining about various slights:
  • I always thought of coolness as being a studied detachment from things, climbing the social ladder by appearing not to care too much. This is the exact opposite of the current status-conscious Wokeism, where the game is caring earnestly (or faking it) about ever-smaller things that become Very Important. I can’t guess how that interfaces with the teenaged desire to mock anything adults do as phony a la The Catcher in the Rye.

    • Agree: Kyle
    • Replies: @James J. O'Meara
    @Moral Stone

    Richard Fariña, Tom Pynchon's buddy and Joan Baez' sister's husband, defined Cool for all time:

    "I am invisible, he thinks often. And Exempt. Immunity has been granted me, for I do not lose my cool. Polarity is selected at will, for I am not ionized and I possess not valence. Call me inert and featureless but Beware, I am the Shadow, free to cloud men's minds. Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? I am the Dracula, look into my eye." -- Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me (1966)

    His character, Gnossos, is actually a transitional figure, between the 50s hipster and the eventual 60s hippie (he idolizes Mose Allison and thinks "rock n roll" is kiddie music for pizza parlors). The whole novel, which takes place in a lightly fictionalized Cornell (where he met Pynchon), is about his quest for nonattachment to anything, especially to chicks. (Arguably the most misogynistic yet fashionable novel of the 20th century, tied perhaps with The Ginger Man). He very explicitly detaches from the campus political scene, so yes, very not Woke.

    Replies: @MBlanc46

    , @Lyra
    @Moral Stone

    “ I can’t guess how that interfaces with the teenaged desire to mock anything adults do as phony a la The Catcher in the Rye.”

    It doesn't. It does, however, jive with a child's desire to please Mommy and Daddy. The Woke Folk aren’t adolescent like counter-cultural types, they're childish.

  • Bari Weiss has an article in City Journal about how rich parents at super elite private schools like Harvard-Westlake in the Hollywood Hills are surreptitiously aghast at how Woke their children's expensive educations have become: The Miseducation of America’s Elites Affluent parents, terrified of running afoul of the new orthodoxy in their children’s private schools,...
  • An additional advantage is that the woke can openly and even publicly coordinate to achieve their ends. If you want to hire a diversity coordinator (maybe your buddy) at a private school to start a new initiative, you can talk about it with peers, students, and potential funders. Coordinating against that sort of thing is potential career suicide, and as the article mentions has to be done discreetly and quietly.

    Does employment as a private school teacher use at-will contracts? I imagine a strong board objection to this stuff and a new hire at the top could actually succeed in tamping it down. But again, as the article mentions, there’s a considerable amount of real support for it among students, staff, and parents that seems to go beyond self-interest that shouldn’t be overlooked.

  • From Poynter, a media thinktank: Factually: What will fact-checkers find on Clubhouse? Live audio and no recording might complicate the work of fact-checkers on this new platform. By: Cristina Tardáguila and Harrison Mantas February 11, 2021 There is a new social media platform trending worldwide. It’s called Clubhouse and it brings together people like Tesla’s...
  • Of all of the media absurdities you’ve posted lately, this is the worst. It is indistinguishable from parody, both in bemoaning the inability of “fact checkers” to monitor a media platform and in favorably remarking on the censoriousness of the Chinese Communist Party. This reads like something from Babylon Bee, only less self aware.

    • Agree: mc23
    • Replies: @SunBakedSuburb
    @Moral Stone

    "It is indistinguishable from parody"

    It is a collapse into parody. The American parable for future hybrid-humans to absorb is do not allow authoritarian capitalists to fund a Cultural Marxist revolution in your land unless you want drag queens and black ladies stinking up the joint.

    , @Erik L
    @Moral Stone

    I think that Chinese comment was the author showing that he agrees such a platform is a good thing, but to keep working he has to claim all the stuff he wrote in the first 90% of the article

  • From the New York Times: A Lincoln Project co-founder resigns after allegations that a former colleague sent unsolicited, lurid messages to young men. Jennifer Horn, one of the original founders of the anti-Trump group the Lincoln Project, has left the organization citing the revelations that another co-founder, John Weaver, was accused of sending unsolicited and...
  • @Irishman
    The amount of money, even for relative nobodies, in American politics never ceases to amaze me.

    Replies: @Clyde, @Moral Stone, @donut, @Jack Armstrong, @Desiderius, @AnotherDad

    I agree, and I can’t figure it out. I do think it’s in part because politics is adjacent to the money printer. What’s 50 mil to oust Trump if it gets your person in charge of the Fed?

  • Back on January 21, I blogged that we ought to know by Monday, February 1 whether the vaccine is working on a mass scale in Israel. From The Economist on February 3: Yet ... I dunno. I'm not convinced that these graphs are as clear-cut proof of vaccine success as The Economist claims. For one...
  • @Steve Sailer
    @epebble

    Probably cases are falling after the Third Wave for similar reasons to why they fell after the First and Second Waves.

    Replies: @anon, @epebble, @Travis, @Moral Stone, @Mike Tre, @Kyle

    It may be just a return to some baseline, ie a period where cases aren’t surging due to, say, the holidays. But there’s also a chance for the initial vaccinations to have an outsized effect on hospitalizations, some variant of to the 80/20 rule. Cases seem less likely to be dramatically affected quickly, but obviously this is speculation.

  • From the New York Times news section: This got almost no publicity, but in a survey, over 30% of Democrats blamed violence at the Mostly Peaceful Protests on white supremacists. The muddled, chaotic information ecosystem that produces these misguided beliefs doesn’t just jeopardize some lofty ideal of national unity. It actively exacerbates our biggest national...
  • @415 reasons
    The fact that they would equate the lab origins hypothesis for COVID-19--which is the most parsimonious explanation of how this pandemic began 1000 miles from where the host species lives without any trace-- with QAnon shows you that this piece is in itself pure disinformation.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Hypnotoad666, @Anon, @Neoconned

    The fact that is was published in the New York Times and pertains to domestic politics shows you that it’s pure disinformation.

    • Agree: Hypnotoad666
    • Replies: @Polistra
    @Moral Stone


    The fact that it was published in the New York Times and pertains to domestic politics shows you that it’s pure disinformation.
     
    FTFY
  • From the Washington Post Editorial Board "A Place for Everyone in America:" Of course, there are a lot of everyones in this world, about 7.5 billion Pre-Americans. But there is a place for all of them in Joe Biden's America. As commenter Reg Caesar points out, "amnesty" is the wrong word, not because it's too...
  • I’m probably too engaged with alternative media to assess this accurately, but are any voters influenced by this old-media neocon tripe anymore? Maybe these articles are aimed at the beltway set as a way of coordinating output of think tanks beholden to cheap-labor-loving donors or something. But I can’t imagine the person who reads the WaPo editorial board column in 2021 and it changes their opinion on immigration. Does the article serve another underlying purpose?

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Moral Stone

    I know many people who believe every word in the MSM

    , @ben tillman
    @Moral Stone


    I’m probably too engaged with alternative media to assess this accurately, but are any voters influenced by this old-media neocon tripe anymore?
     
    Every white Democrat is decisively influenced by the "old media". Even so, they don't all buy the immigration narrative,
  • After a pathetic start, vaccinations per day in the US have average 939,973 per day over the last week (which included the Martin Luther King Birthday 3-day weekend) according to Bloomberg: Famously, Joe Biden's big plan is to have 100 million Americans inoculated in his first 100 days, a lightning fast pace of [checks calculator]...
  • @That Would Be Telling
    @Moral Stone


    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way.
     
    In the second case of new strains, you start building herd immunity from scratch, starting with everyone who's already survived COVID-19. As Jack D notes, though, that'll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic. I'd also like a citation on your claim that morbidity "rates among healthy working age people are minuscule." I'm not following this, but I've gotten the impression its at least somewhat larger than that vague word.

    There's a possible exception for the starting all over, if the spike protein almost all current well progressed vaccine target is able to sufficiently mutate and still function, but the nucleocapsid protein which natural immunity also targets doesn't change enough, in which case new vaccines will be needed for those who got immunity that way, which obviously might target or also target that protein.

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique among RNA viruses, for which we have plenty of "eternal" vaccines. Against us is that no matter how suspiciously well adapted to humans SARS-CoV-2 is, it'll come under selection pressure to get around natural and vaccine immunity if we actually get enough people immune, which I personally am doubting will happen for years, if ever in terms of the world, and so far it looks like for many developed countries absent coercion (just one of many costs of a hostile ruling elite). And we presume that's what's happened with the U.K. mutation for example, except with a single human body with a wonky immune system that kept the person alive but allowed fierce ecological competition inside it.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Moral Stone

    I’m basing my comment on the CDC data for provisional deaths related to covid-19, and these are mortality figures. These may be inflated although that aspect is unclear. But according to this data, the 220 million or so Americans between 15-65 years of age have experienced a 0.02% mortality rate from covid, and I’m not misusing the percentage there. Of those deaths, ~75% are in the 55-65 demographic (experiencing more like a 0.1% population mortality rate) leaving an even smaller number for the under 55 age groups. If serious morbidity occurs an order of magnitude more frequently than mortality (a complete guess), then M&M is maybe 1/500 working age people, heavily concentrated on the 55-65 age group nearing retirement age. This thing isn’t gonna keep food off the shelves or anything like that, since it largely misses the sub-55s, and almost completely misses the sub-45s.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Moral Stone

    If your figures are correct and I have no reason to doubt except that we think official COVID-19 labeled deaths are undercounted, then as long as you trimmed the last 4-8 weeks from the CDC mortality figures, we're talking 44,000 dead so far in the 15-65 range. As in, I'm assuming your 0.02% death rate will rise as more people get COVID-19, the 220 million base you use is obviously the total of the cohort, not total infected in that cohort.

    So while I'd from memory add a 16% enhancement to that for the undercounting, the big thing is to try to extrapolate from where we are today to what we'd get if we let it rip through the population, using iffy estimates of total infected. Perhaps going through twice or thrice, hopefully killing many fewer each time ... but we don't know why and when it kills, do we? Absent vaccines I'm not counting on herd immunity, I bet it will be with us until it can no longer mutate beyond the ability of our vaccines, and even then will still stalk the world absent a successful eradication campaign.

    If your wild morbidity guess were correct and we add my enhancement, here I'm trying to make a worse case wild guess, we're talking half a million people in that cohort with serious morbidity. Which taking a step back strikes me as wrong, or our ruling trash including our public health authorities and the media have been missing a stupendous club with which to beat on the BAD ORANGE MAN.

    Which is entirely possible, they're trash, but for now I'd dial that way back, I'd for example start with 10% of cases or some subset of them. But it could easily not be a "minuscule" number, as well as the total number of deaths if we just let it run through the 15-65 population. And still, a lot of the elderly are not obtaining isolation, it takes only one mistake, and isolation is costly in many ways, which I say in part speaking from direct experience.

    We should also be careful about morbidity assumptions and cohorts. For example it could have a weight towards the younger because they're more likely to survive.

    TL;DR: I sincerely hope we get lots of safe and effective vaccine doses by the end of the second quarter, not more optimistic since Pfizer and Janssen are disappointing us for the first quarter, and that our bodies hit at least one conserved spike protein epitope so we don't have to go through this game again. Because while not being apocalyptic, the numbers are still potentially fairly grim for the younger, and we know they're something of an apocalypse for the older.

  • @Alec Leamas (hard at work)
    @Jack D


    Field hockey is no more and no less a “children’s game” than any other sport. In many parts of the world it is played by men. I suppose in the US the men’s version is mostly crowded out by ice hockey and by lacrosse.

    You can object to almost ALL sports on the grounds that they are mere children’s games. The thing is that there is vastly more demand among spectators and the players to watch and participate in certain children’s games vs others, but Title IX substitutes government micromanagement for the judgment of the marketplace.
     
    I see Kyle's point though - he's writing that the Iowa Women's Field Hockey team didn't seem upon first blush to be a serious or high-level athletic enterprise but rather a social club arranged around travel and hitting a ball about. In such a case, is the travel part even necessary or something worth the expense if teams of a similar level of competition could probably be found within 30 miles of campus?

    At least in the case of BIG10 Football, it's a serious athletic enterprise justifying the necessity to fly the team across the Midwest to find competitive peers. You may object that BIG10 Football is too serious of an athletic enterprise (and the correlated academic exercise not serious enough), but it's a thing that's wholly different than what Kyle was describing. Indeed, the football programs generate excess revenue to fund other athletic programs which cannot self-fund. (Perhaps a better compromise would be directing the football revenue into academic programs).

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Reg Cæsar, @Alden

    I’m not sure having one team each year (out of a conference of also-rans) barely good enough to get heemed in the playoffs by an SEC or ACC school qualifies Big 10 football as “serious.” I’ll grant you it is probably a revenue generating enterprise as midwestern football might be marginally more entertaining to the folks out there than their other option – literally watching corn grow.

  • After a pathetic start, vaccinations per day in the US have average 939,973 per day over the last week (which included the Martin Luther King Birthday 3-day weekend) according to Bloomberg: Famously, Joe Biden's big plan is to have 100 million Americans inoculated in his first 100 days, a lightning fast pace of [checks calculator]...
  • In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way. That obviously isn’t ideal, but it’s hardly the apocalypse either. M&M rates among healthy working age people are minuscule, and the vulnerable can continue to self isolate. We certainly can’t lock down everyone forever, although I suspect our kind government overlords would love to try.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
    @Moral Stone


    In the event that the vaccines aren’t effective or don’t work against constantly evolving new strains, I’m pretty sure Plan B is herd immunity the old fashioned way.
     
    In the second case of new strains, you start building herd immunity from scratch, starting with everyone who's already survived COVID-19. As Jack D notes, though, that'll result in millions of deaths in the US without the use of new vaccines, which a lot of people would consider to be apocalyptic. I'd also like a citation on your claim that morbidity "rates among healthy working age people are minuscule." I'm not following this, but I've gotten the impression its at least somewhat larger than that vague word.

    There's a possible exception for the starting all over, if the spike protein almost all current well progressed vaccine target is able to sufficiently mutate and still function, but the nucleocapsid protein which natural immunity also targets doesn't change enough, in which case new vaccines will be needed for those who got immunity that way, which obviously might target or also target that protein.

    In our favor, coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism unique among RNA viruses, for which we have plenty of "eternal" vaccines. Against us is that no matter how suspiciously well adapted to humans SARS-CoV-2 is, it'll come under selection pressure to get around natural and vaccine immunity if we actually get enough people immune, which I personally am doubting will happen for years, if ever in terms of the world, and so far it looks like for many developed countries absent coercion (just one of many costs of a hostile ruling elite). And we presume that's what's happened with the U.K. mutation for example, except with a single human body with a wonky immune system that kept the person alive but allowed fierce ecological competition inside it.

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Moral Stone

    , @Captain Tripps
    @Moral Stone

    I haven't been keeping up my commenting output, so cannot tap the "Agree" button. But I was going to post a comment very similar. So, "Agree".

    , @Anon
    @Moral Stone

    In case of a so-so vaccine which seems quite possible, the true option is to do actual medicine: early testing and early treatment. In this instance, a home treatment that will take care of the disease in the early stage and avoid hospital overflow.

    There is quite a case being built in France —and other places— that HCQ plus azithromycin does work, and it was deliberately blocked in order to sell a competing molecule, remdesivir. Gilead’s share price nearly doubled when the Lancet shot down HCQ in May 2020.
    Gilead sold 1 billion euros just to the EU regulator in a couple of months later, just before the WHO had to come out and say remdesivir didn’t work (it didn’t lower mortality.)

    Now that Trump and remdesivir are out, we are about to find out the vaccine won’t be a silver bullet (10-30% of the population will still need treatment, right?). There are shy mentions in media about Ivermectin, an old molecule that has been repurposed since last May for Covid 19. Also some rumblings about strains/mutations, which are known by the medical community since last April.

    Here’s an appeal to authority, with a (somewhat stilted) summary of Didier Raoult’s latest video on Covid vaccines:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LyCruMMM5s4

    1) He does not have a binary thinking on vaccine (always good or always bad). It is an individual choice in consultation with a doctor.
    2) He will apply French law. He will not do media public vaccination or say what he chose to do.
    3) As to Covid vaccines, due to time pressure, the samples to evaluate the security or efficacity of the vaccine have not been obtained. (2:40)
    4) Whether people in the long term, or over millions of individuals it can have unforeseeable side effects cannot be scientically said today.
    5) In the short term, (few months), and a few thousand of individuals, it is not dangerous. That we know.
    6) Thus, the risk/benefit for people very exposed to Covid or very in danger of developing a bad case, can be worth it.
    7) What are the doubts?
    - For the new technology (mRNA) and adenovirus. If person is aged or immunocompromised it’s fine. We can’t say that for people who will keep the vaccine for decades.
    - Live attenuated vaccines are thought to be safe. However, we have to be aware that more poliomyelitis strains are due to vaccination than to nature. Because vaccination continued where polio had already been eradicated and that created strains.Vaccination strategies have to be re-evaluated in time. So, live-attenuated virus vaccines that can be safely omitted in a given population, should be. Again, inactivated virus vaccines are thought safe.
    8) Once we have a vaccine, we look at its safety: First, there could be small reactions (fever, local pain). But even with saline solution, you can get a “nocebo effect”. So for a vaccine it’s important to have a placebo group, to know that it is not a vaccine reaction but a reaction to the aggression of any injection.
    9) Second, there are the coincidences. When you vaccinate 30 million people, in the next 30 months, many things can occur: car accidents, esclerosis en plaque, etc. For Covid19, we have a lot of observation going on, we should know if accidents occur.
    10) Second factor we look at is efficacity. Some like Pfizer have 90%. The AZ around 70%, probably less for target populations (old, infirm).That’s so in the studies. In real life then people will still get infected with Covid. Vaccines are instrument to fight epidemics, diminish number of cases.
    11) For the vaccines based on the virus, it generates a response to the protein (spike).(min16:00). An unresolved question is whether the virus will generate mutations in that zone. Another is whether the Covid mutations that already exist will still be sensitive to that spike. But we will know soon because England has 70% of its variants with changes in the Spike. We will see what infections happen there.
    12) If infections happen, it will mean we have to amplify the strains or the coding sequences like we do for the grippe. You need to vaccinate against the flu every year.
    13) Another point that we don’t know is the length of the immunity. To begin with natural immunity is already medium, people get sick again in three months. We’ll see.
    14) I have given my point of view as doctor, as scientist and now as public servant. Order of vaccination in France and Europe: first, carers in old-age residences, the all older than 75, then medical staff of more than 65, then all older than 65, etc

    By the way, in another video, Raoult grumbles that even though medical regulators say the mRNA cannot penetrate into DNA, we have known for 32 years this is FALSE. But then, I’m not a doctor. I’ll have to choose which authority to believe, and hope I choose the one without conflict of interest.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @That Would Be Telling

  • @Buzz Mohawk
    OT: There was a walkout today at The New Yorker, but nobody got it.

    Roughly 100 staffers of The New Yorker magazine walked off their jobs on Thursday in protest of pay disparities.

    https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/continuous-line-drawing-people-walking-street-work-time-conteptual-hand-drawn-minimalism-lineart-design-isolated-157630544.jpg

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @Moral Stone, @Reg Cæsar

    That’s an amazing article and worth the read. In particular, the proposed *new* base salary from the company is $45,000 a year with annual 3k increase, this in NYC.

    I assume these people love being “influential” more than they love a decent standard of living, which explains a lot of their vindictive witch hunts – it’s all they have.

  • From the Associated Press:
  • @AndrewR
    They really think they can censor anyone with opinions that dissent against the establishment narrative. Wow.

    Replies: @John Milton’s Ghost, @Moral Stone

    They think that because they can, and are.

  • Open thread.
  • @KenH
    My guess is that if the Republicans win both seats but one race is within 1 percent it will be challenged in court and the courts, who couldn't be bothered with flagrant cases of fraud and irregularities in the presidential election, will do all they can to help the Democrat candidate overturn the results and win the seat.

    Or, counting will continue for two weeks and the Democrats will magically win after two weeks of counting.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Aardvark, @Jonathan Mason

    This. With semi-legal ballot harvesting operations the democrats can more or less find the votes they need, as long as no one asks too many questions. And the GOP apparently doesn’t feel compelled to do that.

  • From the New York Times news section, a disheartening long article about one high school student wrecking another high school student's life. My general policy is not to hurt children, so I'm deleting their surnames. That the white girl got from rap music. Which was about a half century before the white victim in this...
  • @Change that Matters
    Poor smug Jimmy. He thinks grudges are unidirectional.

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    They aren’t unidirectional but there’s certainly a massive power differential in this case. Random white chick can’t sic the NYT and I guess all of social media on her enemies. Apparently Jimmy can, under limited circumstances.

  •  
  • Literally look like each other’s cousins. Probably are, in fact.

  • Personally, I kind of like using honorifics for people. It adds a little color to life: e.g., I might write "Even Sir Mick has admitted that his lyrics for 'Brown Sugar' might be ..." So I often refer to a person with Ph.D. rather than an M.D. as "Dr. So-and-So." But insisting that other people...
  • @anon
    That vid showing Biden in 1988 is like some of the vid from the current year, except he doesn't talk as fast anymore. Pretty obvious Joe's been an insecure cry-bully for his entire adult life.

    We can all rest easier once he's installed as President! The long national nightmare will be over!

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Nachum

    This is of course the same behavior the entire establishment would decry as unpresidential coming from Donald Trump. I do find it interesting that both Biden and Trump focus on “higher IQ” rather than saying “I guarantee I’m smarter than you are” or something similar in meaning.

    Also, I note that Joe Biden is the actual “mediocre white man” of leftist fever dreams. They must hate his ass for being necessary to their ambitions.

    • Agree: Mr McKenna, Redman, bomag
    • Replies: @James J. O'Meara
    @Moral Stone

    "I do find it interesting that both Biden and Trump focus on “higher IQ” rather than saying “I guarantee I’m smarter than you are” or something similar in meaning.'

    It's the influence of all the IQ nerds and HBD fetishists that congregate on Unz. Interesting how the "high IQ" types turn out to be Clintons or Trumps or Bidens. It's almost as if IQ had nothing to do with competence or even being a decent human being.

    Replies: @botazefa

    , @David In TN
    @Moral Stone

    Yes, Never Trumpers like to call Donald Trump a "buffoon," while backing a mediocrity known as a "buffoon" for 30 plus years.

    I saw the performance above on CSPAN at the time. Funny thing, I was a Democrat and was considering Joe Biden as my preferred candidate for the 1988 nomination. Soon after Biden was laughed out of the race for plagiarizing a Neal Kinnock speech and peddling a phony life story.

  • From Pew Research Center: Polygamy is rare around the world and mostly confined to a few regions BY STEPHANIE KRAMER DECEMBER 7, 2020 ... In February, Utah passed a bill to reduce the penalties for adults who voluntarily live in polygamous relationships, making the practice an infraction, a low-level offense that is not punishable with...
  • @Jesse
    No. You don't understand the extent of the backlash against the sexual revolution. Mostly coming from feminists and their allies. (Chortle all you want but it should give you pause that they can succeed where the socons universally fail.)

    Replies: @Mike P., @anon, @Thea, @Moral Stone

    This question will pivot in part on whether women prefer polygamy in an absence of practical or social pressure to adopt other arrangements. It’s not as clear as one might think what their actual preference might be. Steve mentions that inertia has carried institutions along for the last several decades, to a point where most people in charge can’t explain why we did things one way (eg standardized testing) and so can’t defend against deleterious change. Monogamy would certainly fit in that mold. There are very good, pragmatic reasons a society and culture should enforce monogamy (one example, to keep more men invested in society’s success, which is important for stability and has been decreasing of late), but I’m not sure anyone making decisions in this country could name such a reason if pressed. Our best defense against changing this particular institution in this country may be that some of the most notable practitioners are ultra-white unhip Mormons, which will probably inoculate this issue against Progressive involvement.

  • @RichardTaylor
    I'm guessing the White "males" who work at Google went around submissively agreeing with their Black coworkers, even though they know better deep inside.

    I keep wondering if it's a lack of manhood or something else in Silicon Valley.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Dr. DoomNGloom, @Anonymous, @Anon, @Anonymous, @Alden

    In my experience it’s a bit of both. Great programmers tend to be more disconnected than the average person from social systems, so they just don’t understand what all of this is about. And that being the case, they kind of trust the status quo/expert opinion, in the same way that if I’m stuck at an airport and they say my Dallas flight is delayed because of storms on the east coast, I just assume that’s the truth. Sure it could be that an engine fell off my plane and they’re making shit up, but how would I know?

    The second part is that they are submissive because they have great jobs at the local programming monopoly run on ad dollars or whatever. Tech monopolies make a big deal about competing to hire the best people for those “100x” programming jobs, but then collude to cut talented programmers’ salaries. This isn’t really a free market, because of the nature of the few monopolies running things. And if they blackball you for basically wrongthink, you’re heading toward reduced opportunities, less interesting projects, and a pay cut.

    This is something I harp on a fair bit: the ability of companies to enforce PC dogma on their employees is predicated on the fact that whatever they lose in terms of output they can gain by maintaining their market power, whether by making voters, regulators, or FedGov happy. All of the people who are surprised that college woke culture has been so easily exported to corporations didn’t understand the game.

    • Replies: @RichardTaylor
    @Moral Stone


    Great programmers tend to be more disconnected than the average person from social systems, so they just don’t understand what all of this is about ... they kind of trust the status quo/expert opinion, in the same way that if I’m stuck at an airport and they say my Dallas flight is delayed because of storms ... I just assume that’s the truth.
     
    That makes sense. If you are blind to certain realms, you just follow the lead of others.

    This isn’t really a free market, because of the nature of the few monopolies running things. And if they blackball you for basically wrongthink, you’re heading toward reduced opportunities ... and a pay cut.
     
    Almost like Hollywood. The studios have the power. Make a producer mad and you'll never work in this town again.
  • My new Taki's Magazine column more lucidly explains that new paper on what your taste in movies says about your personality. For example: Read the whole thing there. By the way, Friday Night Lights, which went on to become a successful TV show, has the least neurotic fan base of any of the 846 movies....
  • @Charles
    @slumber_j

    Thank you for referencing TLP. I had never heard of or seen that (I suppose now-defunct) blog. The Dove commercials entry was interesting in-and-of itself, plus there were the asides to "House of Games". Much of his stuff made for good reading, if now a bit dated, though it was only six or seven years ago.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @slumber_j

    It’s really a great blog, although as you said a bit dated. It’s central theme, which I think is that ad men are so good at psychology that the messages they try to send can be analyzed to tell you about yourself and your place in society, is unique.

    I do however find it a bit at odds with say Steve’s stories about working in marketing where a lot of the value of ad spends is illusory, and most ad value is created by promoting new products as one might expect. Are ad men cunning manipulative psychonauts hacking our collective psyche, or huxters who flatter executives for ad dollars that don’t move the needle much? Or some combination thereof?

    • Replies: @Charles
    @Moral Stone

    His Dove commercials interpretation reminded me of the late Dr. Wilson Bryan Key and his theories of the use of subliminal imagery in print ads; his first book was published in or around 1971. I've read most or perhaps all of his books and have several. I don't necessarily believe exactly what he believed, but the fact of the use of those techniques is really beyond reasonable doubt. Whether they work like he claimed is arguable, but their existence is not. Unfortunately his books tend to have titles like "Media Sexploitation"; that one was his second or third book and has outstanding analysis of then-current pop songs and basically an entire chapter on "The Exorcist" film. That book in particular can be had cheaply and would be of interest to any thinking person.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar, @njguy73

  • My theory has always been that what we think of as sports are basically tests of masculinity, so it's not surprising that women seldom do well at them relative to men. One sport where women might even be better than men is open water swimming. For example, in Southern California's Catalina Channel Swim of 33...
  • @Trinity
    Well Stefi Cohen can compete with all but the elite men powerlifters when it comes to the deadlift and squat. She definitely has some very, very respectable numbers for her weight that would match up well against most males, hell, it would defeat most males that weigh between 115-123lbs in those two lifts. Have no idea how much she bench presses but it probably isn't that much, women just don't have the upper body strength of males.

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    True, but Stefi also appears to be on serious steroids, to the point of some vocal masculinization and “roid gut.” Obviously, the male competitors are also juiced to the gills, but gear is probably an equalizer when it’s used in a sport with weight classes. It will allow a woman of a given height to probably pack on muscle at a low body fat in order to fill out one of the lower weight classes.

    An interesting question is, given enough anabolic steroids, is there a big difference between male and female “ceilings” for a given height/frame?

    • Replies: @prosa123
    @Moral Stone

    True, but Stefi also appears to be on serious steroids, to the point of some vocal masculinization and “roid gut.”

    Your use of the first name to refer to a female athlete you don't personally know is a sign of idiocy.

  • In the iSteve comments, AnotherDad responds to an anonymous question: South Asians are actually kind of like what SJWs in comment sections are always contending blacks are: so incredibly diverse that to call them a race is absurd. On the other hand, you can usually guess that a South Asian is a South Asian from...
  • I would personally prefer to see “on the gripping hand” used a bit more often, rather than the tedious “on the other other hand.”

    • Replies: @Alfa158
    @Moral Stone

    The correct usage is that you first have to say, “on the one hand..... but on the other hand.....”
    If there is a third alternative, only then can you use “on the gripping hand”.
    I recommend using “on the gripping hand” with caution as it may mark the user as nerdish.

    I think I just outed myself as a nerd.

  • From the New York Times science news section: Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response, researchers reported. By Apoorva Mandavilli Nov. 17, 2020 How long might immunity to the coronavirus last? Years, maybe even decades, according to a new study —...
  • @The Last Real Calvinist
    That's a good question, Steve.

    Based on my experience in Hong Kong, there will be more disappointment than many people in more hard-hit countries may be expecting.

    A bit of background on COVID here: in short, Hong Kong has escaped largely unscathed so far. There have been about 5000 'cases', of which some very substantial proportion has been classified as 'asymptomatic'. Just over 100 people have died. We have never had a full-on, hard-core lockdown, but we've been under constant restrictions of varying degrees of intensity since late January.

    At the moment, new cases here run about 5-10 a day. The great majority are travellers entering HK who test positive at the airport on arrival. There are occasional 'local' cases, but often it's one a day, or none at all.

    In spite of the very low risk of COVID spreading here, we are compelled by law to wear masks more or less everywhere public, including outdoors, even when hiking. The only exemptions are when engaging in 'strenuous exercise'. It is essentially impossible to find anyone flouting this requirement other than a few old people who take off their masks out in the parks when doing their morning exercises. All travellers entering HK from anywhere other than mainland China must do two weeks of quarantine in a hotel room -- no exceptions.

    You would think there would be a groundswell of support for relaxing the restrictions here. That is not the case. Last week there were a couple of days in which the numbers of new cases made it into double figures, and just like that the HK government announced a crackdown. Restaurants had been able to seat six at a table; now it's down to four. Bars can now only seat tables of two.

    Many people here applaud this 'caution' and 'prudence'. We have a set of 'experts' who dominate the media with constant -- and I mean almost daily -- pronouncements of extreme gloom and danger. Cases up from three yesterday to six today? It's the next wave! (I believe we're up to at least our 'fourth wave' here, although it would be perfectly plausible to suggest we've never really had our first one).

    There are also many people here who have become rigid, even obsessive, in their devotion to risk avoidance. They take the government pronouncements as gospel. They are adamant that even one case of COVID is intolerable; nothing short of complete 'purity' can ever be the goal. They seem uninterested in returning to normality; perhaps 'fighting COVID' has given their lives a focus and organizing principle they may have lacked BC (i.e. Before COVID). I'm running into people like this at work, at church, among friends -- and it's not always the people I would have expected.

    This of course evokes the oft-cited phenomenon of a certain subset of soldiers not knowing what to do with themselves when the war's over. I'd never really seen that before, but I think I'm starting to see it now.

    So the obvious answer to your query is that certain government officials who are using COVID to amass and hold power are going to be most sorry when it's all over, but they're not going to be alone.

    Replies: @Coag, @Hibernian, @Jack D, @Moral Stone

    A fair amount of new research (which Steve has highlighted) is showing that the current fixation on people’s feelings of being hurt or persecuted being treated as the absolute Truth functions as an anti-CBT, worsening mental illness across the board. This is particularly true of anxiety and/or depression disorders. I think it’s dovetailing with the covid situation as you point out. If you feel anxious about covid it must be very important and serious. That the powers that be are helping make you feel anxious based on their coverage of it usually goes unmentioned, but this is obviously a self serving cycle for them.

  • The Phinney Neighborhood Association in Seattle reports: Anti-racism work updates: Eliminating racist symbolism July 27, 2020 Dear PhinneyWood Community, We have a few updates to share with you about our on-going commitment to anti-racism and equity, diversity, and inclusion (EDI) at the PNA. You are probably familiar with the neighborhood tradition of the winter holiday...
  • I mean, I almost admire the hustle. You get hired as the diversity consultant in a lily white PC area, and they expect to get racially flogged at least a little bit. That’s what they’re paying you for, sorta like a dominatrix. So you have to come up with something. Two water fountains in some random building in town, one shorter than the other? Segregation! Jim Crow! Is it a symptom of a crumbling nation? Probably. But by God that diversicrat made something out of nothing in impressive fashion.

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
    @Moral Stone

    All the departments at my daughter's hospital have been *required* to find a racial issue that they can address. The fact that there are no racial issues that require addressing at her hospital is not regarded as a barrier to this task.

    This is called "job security" for diversicrats.

    , @Rob McX
    @Moral Stone


    But by God that diversicrat made something out of nothing in impressive fashion.
     
    Exactly. When you're given a ridiculous job like this, you'd better start pretending it's actually necessary, or you'll soon be unemployed.
  • @Achmed E. Newman
    Somehow people like Jennifer Rubin and yes, even AOC, do not scare me in the way that guys from the Gestapo or E. German Stasi would have. Is it just their manner of dress or maybe the high-talking that leads me to think I could take these people if it came down to it?*

    BTW, thank you, commenter Vinteuil on a previous thread for the point-out to the East German uprising of 1953. How quickly people forget how much of a miserable shitshow Communist life was in Europe only 3 decades ago, not to mention elsewhere.


    .


    OTOH, Major Hochstedler of the SS in Hogan's day was kind of a high talker himself.

    Replies: @Jake, @Russ, @Ganderson, @Thoughts, @Moral Stone, @Forbes, @ThisIsAnon153Replying, @Anon, @Dr. X

    I think it’s because there aren’t any of those highly effective power-hungry sociopaths like Stalin in their ranks. But, of concern, just because that type isn’t there yet doesn’t mean they won’t ever be. Enough unchecked power attracts a certain type of person.

  • A lot of people love making predictions about the future. This is your chance to put down your election predictions in writing in the Comments ... and open yourself up to being razzed about it endlessly by other commenters. Personally, I don't like trying to predict the future because I don't like being wrong, and...
  • @Chrisnonymous
    I can't predict. It's too hard. I can't understand why anyone would vote for Biden, so I can imagine a Trump victory easily. Plus, we have the memory of that emotional moment of surprise from the last election.

    However, my co-workers are deep, deep in Biden camp. They started in with the Hunter-Biden-scandal-is-Russian-disinformation crap the other day, and I finally broke. After 3 years of listening to their Russiagate shit without saying anything, I finally told them that their Russian hysteria was all bullshit and that they were believing lies without any basis in evidence. They had nothing to say to me, but now they are giving me wry smiles. There is nothing one can say to people who believe in CNN and the righteousness of the Party.

    So, who will win?

    It's a crazy world out there.

    Replies: @Polistra, @Moral Stone

    It’s been astounding to me to talk to some coworkers, otherwise intelligent people, who thought trump was a Russian agent for 3 years and didn’t learn anything about the media from that saga. I would say I underestimated the power of the MSM propaganda machine over the last several years, probably because I view more alt media. But it is certainly pulling hard for Biden this election and will have an effect iSteve readers tend to underestimate.

    So, my dubious prediction: trump takes FL/AZ/NC/GA/OH/IA, putting him at about 260 EV. Does he pick off a single Great Lakes state to make it over the top? They run together electorally but there’s still local variation, although the polling and other factors indicate Biden has a stronger hold there than Clinton did, because the DNC are paying attention. But I’ll be an optimist and say trump takes one, I’ll predict ~275 EV for trump, 60% confidence, for what it’s worth.

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Moral Stone

    As if crazy co-workers aren't enough, I just got an email from my mother who says her elderly Iranian immigrant friend is voting for "Kamala Harris" because she's young. Also, I suspect, because she's a "she".

    Makes voter suppression sound like a good idea.

  • From the Boston Globe opinion page, here's Ibram X. Kendi illustrating my new Taki's Magazine column about the triumph of Ibram X. Kendiism: Jack Dorsey, Twitter supremo, recently gave Kendi $10 million. Boston Latin School is the most famous of Boston's three exam schools. It is a public exam school for grades 7 to 12....
  • His logic is absolutely perfect, regardless of if you believe the conventional wisdom. Either the tests are racist or reality is. His idiotic savantness(?) lies in forcing people to take a direct stand on that question.

    • Thanks: SINCERITY.net
    • Replies: @Pop Warner
    @Moral Stone

    He's almost daring people to disagree with him by dangling the race realist argument (in crude terms) to let anyone who takes the bait get crushed for heresy. Either he truly believes that genes are irrelevant and pushing that position without irony or he's well aware and having fun with his power

    , @Hannah Katz
    @Moral Stone

    Reminds me of a project back in the 70s where some well meaning liberals had black educators put together a test to measure intelligence, based on the black experience, etc. Unfortunately, the white kids beat the black kids even worse than on the standard tests. So the left chastised the well meaning liberals for being racists. Too funny.

  • As you may recall, the psychiatrist and blogger who uses the pseudonym "Scott Alexander" at his prodigious SlateStarCodex blog (prodigious both in verbose length but also in insight and thoughtfulness), was going to be doxxed by the New York Times, which is bad form in general and flagrantly wrong in the case of a psychiatrist...
  • @Morton's toes
    He posted a comment on the ssc subreddit I saw just a couple days ago. He really does not want to be sitting in a room with a patient and the patient saying something like "all your internet bully buddies have me suicidal." Like he is seriously paranoid about maybe having to deal with that and it aggravates his own anxiety disorders.

    There are tens-thousands of people trying to improve chemical treatment of psychos and a Bill James would not make one teeny tiny itsy bitsy little small difference. Sculpting data sets which are more noise than signal is an enormous amount of work. Medication outcome and baseball performance are like apples and oranges. Or maybe apples and interstellar dust particles.

    https://www.amazon.com/Leonard-White/dp/0898626498/

    This is vastly more dense than a bill james baseball abstract.

    Replies: @SFG, @Moral Stone, @anonymous as usual

    It should also be noted that small armies of people go back and forth about drug value and pricing stuff. They mostly work for drug companies and payers (eg insurers, hospital systems, Medicare/cade). I suppose a neutral transparent entity looking at the data could be helpful, but the negotiations are opaque so it’s unclear what the impact would be. And even in situations where a well run study compares say two drugs, there are usually methodological considerations that make interpretation difficult.

  • The Democrats have an attractive candidate for US Senate in Arizona, Mark Kelly, a Gulf War combat aviator who then became an astronaut. His wife, then Democratic Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, was shot in the head by a crazy man in 2011 (she somehow survived). But the question that is growing all the time is whether...
  • @nebulafox
    This is actually what happened in 1930s Japan. Near as anybody can tell, the invasion of China was not some premeditated plan. It was local majors and lieutenant colonels doing their own thing and presenting the government back in Tokyo with fait accomplis.

    Politicians who tried to buck this often ended up assassinated. Even Hirohito himself faced a coup attempt which one of his more radical brothers was involved in: he could have been a potential replacement if he displeased the plotters too much, had they succeeded.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Sean

    Right. Imperial Japanese foreign policy was essentially a hard liner soft coup. It explains some of their fairly irrational behavior, like attacking the US who had 10X their industrial output at the time.

    Regarding the OP, I think people take jobs for a number of reasons, including financial. But low level political jobs don’t offer much money, so you select for staffers who really really want to work in left wing politics and so don’t care about the low pay and terrible hours. And those kind of people tend to be rabid ideologues. So I doubt it’s a simple matter to replace them with sane 9-5 types even if a pol wanted to. Who else would sign up?

    • Replies: @AndrewR
    @Moral Stone

    Maybe you know more about this stuff than I do, but it's difficult not to call bullshit on you here. In the second quarter of this year alone, the Kelly campaign raised $12.8 million (I imagine most of that came from people who have never stepped foot in AZ, but that's another discussion entirely).

    Why exactly can't they afford staffers who have the sense not to tweet extremely inflammatory anarchist insanity on their main during a highly competitive Senate race?

  • From iSteve commenter International Jew: Of course, the last 50 posts is about, what, 10 days? So there'd be other candidates as well if a different time period were chosen. But it any case, the iSteve blog enjoys the efforts of many fine commenters.
  • OT Steve, and you may have covered this (it’s about a month old), but I didn’t realize the EIC of Scientific American which endorsed Biden also wrote to implore people not to bid on Watson’s Nobel. Small world full of Amy Harmon aficionados.

    https://slate.com/technology/2014/12/james-watson-selling-nobel-prize-dna-structure-discoverers-history-of-racism-and-sexism.html

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Moral Stone

    That article is from 2014, Watson's medal was subsequently bought by a Russian millionaire and given back to him, and the editor's name is Laura Helmuth. So the terrible Russians did the right thing while the sainted scientific establishment cringed and washed its hands, and the US poz media had its little day, kicking the corpse of civilization in the face.

  • From the New York Times news section: The Short Tenure and Abrupt Ouster of Banking’s Sole Black C.E.O. Tidjane Thiam made Credit Suisse profitable again. But the Swiss rejected him as an outsider, and a sudden scandal took him down. By Kate Kelly Oct. 3, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET Last November, Urs Rohner, the chairman...
  • I think something is lost in (cultural, linguistic) translation or we aren’t getting the full story. It’s easy enough for a company to say “we hired an outside firm to make sure a previous employee wasn’t hiring our employees in violation of his/their non-compete blah blah blah.”

  • From my new book review in Taki's Magazine: Read the whole thing there.
  • They also may be thinking that controlling crime and other social malfeasance associated with hundreds of millions of immigrants will be easier after they chip everyone and implement a Chinese style social credit system. They see more of a “1984” future with them as a ruling party while to me “mad max” seems more likely.

  • The late Justice was basically an old-fashioned liberal who believed in meritocracy (she hired only one black clerk in four decades on the bench), patriotism, opera, and the eugenic advantages of abortion. From the NYT criticism section:
  • @Jake
    Yes, as pernicious as she was in many ways, Ginsberg is vastly preferable to the total freaks and monsters running the Summer of George.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @John Johnson, @Escher, @J1234

    I know many people prefer liberal hypocrisy to liberal earnestness, since the former implies a degree of sanity. But it’s also what allows them to accrue and maintain they power they use to everyone else’s disadvantage in the first place.

    In this case, RBG did immense damage to our country and institutions with both her female and minority centered affirmative action and her general help eviscerating the pre-1965 constitution. She would have been much less effective in that regard if she actually held herself and those around her to the standards she imposed on hundreds of millions of her countrymen.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Moral Stone


    I know many people prefer liberal hypocrisy to liberal earnestness, since the former implies a degree of sanity. But it’s also what allows them to accrue and maintain they power they use to everyone else’s disadvantage in the first place.
     
    Eh, liberal hypocrisy vs. liberal earnestness is just "po-TAY-to vs. po-TAH-toh", it's the same thing just slightly different accent.

    In this case, RBG did immense damage to our country and institutions with both her female and minority centered affirmative action and her general help eviscerating the pre-1965 constitution.
     
    Exactly. She was the combination of Jewish tribalism with female tribalism at work.
  • Using a borrowed phone, NYT columnist Nicholas Kristof tweets from the top of Mt. Whitney after completing backpacking the 2000 mile Pacific Crest Trail. Kristof's epic journey has kept him out of touch with civilization since Memorial Day. Nick adds:
  • @NJ Transit Commuter
    It’s been fascinating to watch the Establishment circle the wagons and trot out a new argument since riots started chipping away at Biden’s lead in the polls.

    It’s tempting to think that the “Trump is the real cause of political violence” is a coordinated campaign. But, I don’t think that’s the case. I think it’s more a matter of the Echo Chamber effect. Establishment media people and politicians read an article or blog and simply repeat what they have read.

    Of course, this argument is simply a variation of “blame the victim.” Trump won’t do what his political opponents want, so if they violently react, its his fault. When the Establishment still had a shred of credibility, it abhorred this line of reasoning, a great example being violence against women, hence the popularity of “slut walks,” etc. a few years ago. (remember them?). But now that Trump has to be beaten at the election, its no holds barred.

    Getting the genie back in the bottle isn’t going to be as easy as these people imagine, I fear. I still scratch my head and wonder why it was Trump that triggered this insanity.

    Replies: @Anon, @Moral Stone, @martin_2, @Harry Baldwin, @Pop Warner

    One of the most interesting politics/media questions is how do they coordinate their narratives en masse. Certainly some of it is the copy/paste of a lazy echo chamber. Some is likely due to people with very similar ideologies and taboos organically alighting on the few permissible and potentially effective rebuttals. And finally, one can’t rule out actual efforts at coordinating messaging. This always struck me as conspiracy talk but mailing lists for that purpose have existed before, and might still. Also the DNC routinely emails their minions in the MSM warnings about what they can and cannot say about political candidates.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Moral Stone

    One of the most interesting politics/media questions is how do they coordinate their narratives en masse.

    https://www.fort-russ.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/npc-group.png

    Replies: @Hernan Pizzaro del Blanco

    , @Harry Baldwin
    @Moral Stone

    one can’t rule out actual efforts at coordinating messaging.

    On the talk shows, they'll often string together clips from all the networks in which everyone uses exactly the same phrasing. After the first night of the Republican convention, everyone in the MSM described it as "dark and divisive." Can this really be anything but concerted action?

    Replies: @Mr McKenna

    , @peterike
    @Moral Stone


    One of the most interesting politics/media questions is how do they coordinate their narratives en masse... Also the DNC routinely emails their minions in the MSM warnings about what they can and cannot say about political candidates.
     
    Same thing. Reporters get memos from the DNC and they all fire off the same talking points at the same time. It's that simple and that coordinated.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

  • As I've been pointing out for some time, more than a few of our New Idols of Utmost Diversity, male-to-female trans folks, tend to be nasty sons-of-a-gun. Not surprisingly, therefore, a wildly disproportionate percentage of Antifa appear to be trans. For example, many are currently talking about this NPR interview with Vicky Osterweil, author of...
  • There were some very illogical/stupid comments in that Q&A, but I suppose you’re right that it could indicate malice from a smart person. He danced around the notion of riots as a territorial control tactic, which is accurate. But there was a lot of socialist pablum (“riots show us things can be free without state oppression”).

    What I found most interesting was the video. How did that dude swing a week-long jaunt to Barcelona? I’ve yet to figure out how all of these malcontents function the way they do. Rich, permissive parents? Are one of the many conspiracies about funding for antifa actually true? Most of these people don’t strike me as terribly employable, although Osterweiler is a bit of an exception.

  • From the Hollywood Reporter in June: Was Harris ignorant of the scale of looting and arson across the country over the previous three weeks? Did she just read the headlines about "Peaceful Protests" and assume the Good Guys were doing Good Stuff? Or did she like the rioting? Who knows? There is a huge problem...
  • @Altai
    @Anonymous


    Trump’s Luck phenomenon is hard to believe. Kamala should not be VP nominee. She crashed and burned in the primary and doesn’t bring Biden any home state electoral college momentum. Plus black voters don’t like her. And yet there she is.
     
    40 years of culling anyone with any dignity has led to a critical shortage of politicians in the West. We only have managers now. 2 generations have grown up in adulthood with no impression that being a politician is a laudable thing or a path to enacting political change. Now we're seeing the fruits of this.

    Seriously, once Trump and Sanders are gone, who is going to take up the baton of political re-alignment? There's an opening and the other two have made all the mistakes for you to learn from. But who is going to step forward?

    Same thing with Boris. Why was it up to him? Why was he the only one with enough political imagination to understand that Brexit wasn't the end of the world? That becoming it's mid-wife was a political opportunity not a poison chalice? It's actually crazy there were no alternatives to Boris Johnson.

    But does the suffocation of political correctness make the formation of coherent third parties too difficult?

    Replies: @Alexander Turok, @Moral Stone

    I think part of it is fear of having your life picked over with a fine toothed comb. Most people don’t have Trump’s emotional or financial ability to stand up against that. I do agree with you – the general ability of political candidates is way down.

    • Replies: @Altai
    @Moral Stone

    The current crop of politicians in their prime grew up long before social media.

  • We live in a victimocracy in which state and society side with the presumed victims. But at least some classes of official victims, such as many transgenders, are nasty bullies. From the Melbourne Age: What kind of real girl isn't obsessed with crossbows? Her father, Peter Solly Joss, a Czechoslovakian Holocaust survivor and prominent Melbourne...
  • @Not Raul
    This doesn’t seem right to me:

    In her judgment, Justice Hollingworth found it was her father’s ongoing financial support of Ms Joss, 60, that meant he had a “moral obligation” to make allowances for her under his estate even though she was not a named beneficiary in his will.
     
    So, if you give someone money, you’re morally obligated to give them more money?

    I guess I grew up in a different neighborhood than the judge did.

    “By continuing to support Jessica for all those years, Peter allowed her to become financially dependent on him, and to lose much, if not all, of her capacity for employment,” she said.
     
    So you get victim points for being rich now?

    Replies: @bomag, @Moral Stone, @Aardvark, @HA, @Almost Missouri

    I’m torn. It’s reprehensible to overturn a will on such flimsy pretense. However, maybe this judge is thinking either the deceased parents continue to pay, or the state does. And since the parents paid continuously to foist this person on society for the last 60 years, why should the state have to take over now?

  • From the New York Times "Style" section: It's almost as if anti-white racist hate speech has been promoted by the New York Times in recent years. In other
  • This gestalt attack on “Karens” has gotten to the heart of something important. Upper middle class society has a lot of rules big and small (and granted sometimes obnoxiously enforced) that help keep the riffraff out and keep things “Nice” (and property values high). So a natural target of the riffraff are the de facto enforcers of those rules. An easy rule of thumb to tell a good neighborhood is by how tedious the zoning/HOA restrictions are, for example. But rules, like we’re seeing with laws, don’t matter if they can’t be enforced.

    • Replies: @guest
    @Moral Stone

    Also, that middle class middle-aged white women are out of control.

    Not so out of control as women from various other racial and age groups, but you can’t make fun of them like you can white women.

    , @Libre
    @Moral Stone

    Zoning and hoas have destroyed America

  • From Adweek: Maybe he might even pick up a mainstream national advertiser or two? From today, here are Tucker's 3 things voters must demand from the Republican Party (via Fox News): The host called on Republican voters to "demand three things from their candidates. And if they don't provide them, don't vote for them. "First...
  • @Thulean Friend
    Hannity is just behind him though, and Hannity is the king of Boomer Takes. So good news, but with some caveats.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Dan Hayes, @Mr. Anon, @SunBakedSuburb, @Magic Dirt Resident, @For what it's worth, @KenH

    While I agree with you, I’d much rather it be Hannity than someone on CNN or MSNBC.

    • Agree: Dan Hayes, Charon
    • Replies: @Kronos
    @Moral Stone

    Are their ratings still in the toilet?

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

  • From CNN: Don't listen to me for investing advice, but what's with stocks soaring during the George Floyd Riots? Do investors think that all the upcoming increased social spending will boost the human capital of the American workforce? Do they think that the Democrats, by standing for riot and pillage, are sending the Republicans to...
  • I know a guy (excellent sourcing, I know) who works on Wall Street. He says a lot of the trading now is “momentum,” basically driven by the fed and bailout promises. Not a lot of concern over fundamentals beyond some obvious stuff, like will this industry be destroyed by Amazon in the next few years. I think Fed money and monopoly/oligopoly explain the market. Lax antitrust is bad for consumers but actually good for individual company stocks. High profits and/or too big to fail. Take this all with a huge grain of salt though. It is just coming from a guy I know after all, and stock trading isn’t my thing.

  • From Politico:
  • @Thomas
    One of these days, I hope somebody gives us a convincing account of what the hold is Jared has on Trump. Sublimated lech for Ivanka Trump can't admit? Jared's his Mossad handler? Just a feeble elder being taken advantage of by a hustling in-law?

    If Trump doesn't come up with some sort of hardline response this week, I think we'll be able to mark May 31st as the effective end of his Presidency. On the heels of coronavirus, the image of rioters outside the White House while he turns off the lights and hides in a bunker will be too indelible an image of weakness and ineffectuality to escape. No amount of trying to change the subject or shifting the blame to anybody else will live that down.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Army of the Potomac, @Anon

    Regarding Kushner, it’s worth considering the possibility that the majority of what you read in the media is simply untrue. They love these “power behind the throne” stories when Republicans are in office since it delegitimizes them. “Trump isn’t in charge (Kushner/Bannon/etc) is calling the shots.” If Kushner had a heart attack tomorrow by next week there’ll be stories about some other lackey secretly being the brains of the operation.

    Regarding the riot response you’re spot on. Trump needs to respond strongly, ASAP.

    • Replies: @HEL
    @Moral Stone


    Regarding Kushner, it’s worth considering the possibility that the majority of what you read in the media is simply untrue.
     
    The Kushner obsession is tiresome. You tell them to be skeptical of media claims. Reasonable enough. In this corner of the right though many people simply deem any and every bad policy that Trump puts forward as being the result of Kushner's machinations regardless of whether or not anyone with knowledge has claimed, much less presented evidence, that he had anything to do with it. I do believe the First Step act was kinda his baby, but I haven't seen much evidence he's important overall. Positing he is a central figure is basically a microcosm of the anti-semitic worldview--Jewish infiltrator bringing it down from the inside. The anti-semitic worldview works pretty well when dealing with the world at large--Jews really do invent and advocate for a massively disproportionate number of the very bad ideas destroying our society. In this instance though the bad ideas Trump buys into are mostly boilerplate normie-Republican bullshit that the bulk of his appointees and staff already believe regardless. There's no need to posit a sinister inner circle saboteur whispering these ideas in Trump's ear, there's innumerable sources for these bad ideas, including Trump himself.
    , @Guy De Champlagne
    @Moral Stone

    If Kushner had a heart attack tomorrow by next week there’ll be stories about some other lackey secretly being the brains of the operation.

    That's because there would be someone else behind the throne at that point (or the real power behind the throne was never Kushner). I'm not defending the specific accuracy of the media, but as far as I can tell Trump isn't interested in governing or doing anything besides tweeting so there has to be a power behind him.


    If I'm wrong and Trump has any interest in actual governance and isn't consumed by blustering on twitter, than how could he possibly tweet about how horrible and weak governors and mayors are when his literal front yard is literally on fire and he's hiding in a literal bunker behind a literal personal security force? All when he has incontrovertible statutory authority to use the military to restore order? What other explanation is there?

    , @Hypnotoad666
    @Moral Stone


    They love these “power behind the throne” stories when Republicans are in office . . .
     
    Good point. Remember when Karl Rove was "Bush's Brain" and Cheney was really the stealth president. A really smart president (and I am not saying Trump is doing this), can exploit the "power behind the throne" motif to pretend he's above the fray while shifting the blame for unpopular decisions to his advisors. Eisenhower was good at doing that.
  • From the Roosevelt Institute, a couple of leftists try to explains the inexplicable: Rioting Mainly for Fun and Profit: The Neoconservative Origins of Our Police Problem BY MIKE KONCZAL / FRIDAY, 15 AUGUST 2014 / PUBLISHED IN BLOG, NEWS, RORTYBOMB Before it was anything else, the neoconservative movement was a theory of the urban crisis....
  • @Anonymous
    According to law professor Jonathan Turley, this girl is looking at 25 years to life in a maximum security prison.

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/05/30/21/29015624-8372437-Darian_Shader_is_pictured-a-2_1590871704306.jpg

    The Molotov sisters: US woman, 27, who 'threw a petrol bomb at police van with four NYPD cops inside' is charged with attempted murder and her sibling, 21, is arrested for BITING officers during violent George Floyd protests

    A woman from upstate New York who allegedly threw a Molotov cocktail at an occupied police cruiser during protests in Brooklyn on Friday night has been charged with four counts of attempted murder.
    Samantha Shader, 27, is accused of throwing the petrol bomb at the NYPD vehicle - which had four officers inside - in Crown Heights shortly after 10.30pm.

    The lit bottle did not explode, and no officers were injured...

    Shader's younger sister, Darian, 21, tried to interfere and was also taken into custody. She was charged with resisting arrest and obstruction of governmental administration.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8372437/Two-sisters-face-attempted-murder-charges-throwing-Molotov-cocktail-NYPD-car.html
     

    Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.), @Moral Stone, @Sean, @Peterike, @danand, @bigdicknick

    Certainly they should be arrested and incarcerated for a long time. But, let’s be honest, they’re pretty white girls who were engaged in leftist violence in NY. That probably won’t result in 25 to life. Probably not even close.

  • An interesting question is: what is the Herd Immunity rate? As hopes that the infection rate is close to the herd immunity rate as more antibody tests have come in, optimists have shifted toward hoping that the herd immunity rate is actually much lower under Let 'Er Rip conditions than the common ~60% estimate. We...
  • At the beginning of this pandemic, “curve management” was meant to prevent the COVID cases from overwhelming hospitals and associated facilities. This would save lives in obvious ways. But the worst hit areas like NYC didn’t seem that close to hitting that point. For example they had empty hospital ships, Javits center, etc. NYC is maybe 20% (?) positive, so 1/3 of the way to herd immunity without unduly stressing their medical systems. Even less concerning if they had protected nursing homes better.

    So the “Let ‘Er Rip” crowd had something of a point. If the virus had been burning in a distanced but open NYC they would probably be at herd immunity, and maybe without overwhelming hospital systems.

  • From my new book review in Taki's Magazine: In 2017, 158,000 Americans died from what we call deaths of despair: suicide, overdoses, and alcoholic liver disease and cirrhosis. This is the equivalent of three full 737 MAXs falling out of the sky every day, with no survivors. The new book Deaths of Despair: And the...
  • “After all, you’ve already won a Nobel Prize: How much do you still have to fear from the enemies of science?”

    If Dr. Watson is any indication, there is still plenty to fear. And these economists aren’t really near Watson’s caliber as a scientist or in terms of fame.

  • From The Guardian:
  • @Michael S
    @Moral Stone


    Statistically less than half of men who have existed have living descendants, which implies that either they mysteriously weren’t interested in sexual activity, or more likely fertile women weren’t available to them for any number of reasons.
     
    That doesn't demonstrate what you think it does. Unless you've ever had a powerful craving for steak and decided to settle for a McDonald's hamburger instead.

    Physical sex drive, emotional longing for children, and selectiveness in partners are all different and largely unrelated phenomena. Women having sex with fewer men does not mean they are having less sex on average - in fact, notwithstanding homosexuality it's a statistical certainty that they are the same. Equating women's tendency to seek out the top alpha (and do anything to get him in bed) with women being naturally pure and chaste is, literally, the blue pill.

    Women are not passive, they just have very different strategies from men that tend to appear very subtle to us, but are not actually that subtle to other women, which is why intrasexual competition plays out as visible "cattiness".

    Replies: @Sgt. Joe Friday, @Moral Stone

    That 80% of women but only 40% of men (last I checked the genomics journals) have extant descendants strongly implies harem-style mating arrangements. My statement that many or most men didn’t have access to fertile women evolutionarily speaking is not at odds with this, and it appears we agree on this point, so I’m not sure what you think I don’t understand in my statement.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    @Moral Stone

    Harem style mating arrangements are one way but not the only way that you achieve this result. If half of men have 2 wives (a very small harem I guess) and half have none, this works. If, a tribe is conquered and all of the men and all of the male children are slaughtered and the surviving females are impregnated by the conquerors, that works. There's more than one way to skin a cat. Reality is some combination of the above methods.

    Replies: @Johann Ricke

  • @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Sean

    Wrong. Women's desire to get pregnant exceeds men's desire to impregnate them. No need for exotic evolutionary speculations.

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @YetAnotherAnon, @AnotherDad, @Neuday, @ben tillman, @Forbes, @anon

    For the vast majority of evolutionary history pregnancy and sex weren’t easily separated. So your position implies that women just wanted sex more than men were willing to give it to them.

    Statistically less than half of men who have existed have living descendants, which implies that either they mysteriously weren’t interested in sexual activity, or more likely fertile women weren’t available to them for any number of reasons. The other poster’s analysis of how this reflects risk-taking strategy therefore has merit.

    • Replies: @gabriel alberton
    @Moral Stone

    Indeed, there seems to be evidence there have been multiple bottlenecks throughout the last few hundred thousand years when it comes to male lineages, like this Genome Research paper suggested.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25770088/

    Some media outlets, hearing what they want to hear, exaggerate the (valid) conclusions.

    But we should be aware Mr. Mateen himself led a study that came to different conclusions and has fathered about 27 children (all male, of course) despite being not that interested in women (at least, not as much as they're interested in him).

    , @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @Moral Stone

    "Statistically less than half of men who have existed have living descendants, which implies that either they mysteriously weren’t interested in sexual activity, or more likely fertile women weren’t available to them for any number of reasons."

    Oh, men were interested in sex - and they scratched that itch via coitus interruptus, prostitutes, and good old fashioned self-love. A man can fully enjoy all his bodily functions whilst holed up in a closet by himself; women, not so much.

    , @Michael S
    @Moral Stone


    Statistically less than half of men who have existed have living descendants, which implies that either they mysteriously weren’t interested in sexual activity, or more likely fertile women weren’t available to them for any number of reasons.
     
    That doesn't demonstrate what you think it does. Unless you've ever had a powerful craving for steak and decided to settle for a McDonald's hamburger instead.

    Physical sex drive, emotional longing for children, and selectiveness in partners are all different and largely unrelated phenomena. Women having sex with fewer men does not mean they are having less sex on average - in fact, notwithstanding homosexuality it's a statistical certainty that they are the same. Equating women's tendency to seek out the top alpha (and do anything to get him in bed) with women being naturally pure and chaste is, literally, the blue pill.

    Women are not passive, they just have very different strategies from men that tend to appear very subtle to us, but are not actually that subtle to other women, which is why intrasexual competition plays out as visible "cattiness".

    Replies: @Sgt. Joe Friday, @Moral Stone

  • From my new column in Taki's Magazine: Read the whole thing there.
  • @Je Suis Omar Mateen
    @YetAnotherAnon

    "Some of the stuff that’s been discussed here and on Anatoly Karlin’s blog over the last few weeks is making its way into MSM."

    Let's hope not. Maybe they haven't noticed that this blog has become a satire of boomer solipsism; to wit:

    'Add in masks, goggles, and frequent testing and this sounds fairly sustainable for a lot of in-person businesses.'

    Mkay! Only a sperg could earnestly write that. Verdict: troll.

    Replies: @the one they call Desanex, @anon, @Moral Stone

    It does sort of summon an image of some boomer in his la-z-boy watching the masters wondering what the big deal is about people not being able to do their jobs for a few more months. Golf: yes! Dental work: too risky – might catch the rona and give it to the elderly.

    I’d give this another 4-6 weeks before people start to seriously push back against these restrictions. I think most of the immediate job losses were from groups of people that lack the resources or social clout to seriously affect government policy. But once e.g. NPs in non-emergent specialties and business travelers and factory managers and so on start to feel threatened, I think these restrictions will be much harder to maintain, politically.

    • Agree: JosephD
    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    @Moral Stone


    I’d give this another 4-6 weeks before people start to seriously push back against these restrictions.
     
    A 50 something friend of mine had two part time jobs - one at a dentist's office, and another as a waitress. Now she has no j0bs, and a $1200 check sometime in the future won't be a big help.

    Most of my white collar neighbors are still getting paid, so nobody really gives a damn about the Dirt people. That may change if the hurt percolates up.

    Replies: @Hibernian

    , @Thatgirl
    @Moral Stone


    I’d give this another 4-6 weeks before people start to seriously push back against these restrictions. I think most of the immediate job losses were from groups of people that lack the resources or social clout to seriously affect government policy. But once e.g. NPs in non-emergent specialties and business travelers and factory managers and so on start to feel threatened, I think these restrictions will be much harder to maintain, politically.
     
    More like once everyone has seen everything worth watching on Netflix. Then too the barricades!

    Replies: @Jim Don Bob

    , @Sean
    @Moral Stone

    Skin In The Game. Any politician that ended it a day too soon would have to fear being blamed for deaths and suffering violent reprisal from an irate relative in a black suit. It would only take one. The media are all still working away and they'd love a story like a venal politician sacrificing the old folks. It will be almost June before the close down ends (partially).

  • You can tell the crisis is serious because the NYT has published an op-ed by a woman that is useful, needs to be said, and isn't about her hair, thus undermining the Opinion Page's 8-year-long campaign to make women look like self-absorbed ditzes by publishing mostly the ditziest women. Taiwan will be manufacturing ten million...
  • I think part of the issue is that the government didn’t want there to be another thing (in addition to e.g. testing kits) that they couldn’t provide enough of to meet citizen’s demand. So suddenly masks became “unnecessary.”

  • From the Associated Press today: Government official: Coronavirus vaccine trial starts Monday By ZEKE MILLER an hour ago WASHINGTON (AP) — The first participant in a clinical trial for a vaccine to protect against the new coronavirus will receive an experimental dose on Monday, according to a government official. The National Institutes of Health is...
  • To address the question of payments to test subjects: they currently are allowed to compensate people for their time and any other expenses accrued but not beyond that. This is because the medical ethics community decided that paying people for more than just their time is immoral. You can’t ”coerce“ people to be test subjects using financial incentives. Now, on the ground, $1100 means more to some people, and the payment is a factor. But there isn’t just a regulation in the way of say tripling that payment – there’s a medical ethics concern. And those are harder to change on the fly. To be clear though, companies absolutely would pay more if they could. Direct payments to participants are a pittance compared to overall trial expenses.

  • Tweets by a professor of psychology at the U. of Liverpool: I.e., he's just theorizing. 3. A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it. There are limited health...
  • @Anonymous
    @Moral Stone


    So concerts aren’t cool through 2022 but you can’t visit your grandparents,
     
    What?

    Replies: @Moral Stone

    Should have read “concerts are cool but…”

    Also sustainable rate*

    In case those weren’t clear from context

  • Not sure why a random psych professor’s theorizing is being taken seriously, but he’s outlined the most asinine plan I can imagine. He’s not just assuming that the UK government thinks they can quash this thing to an R0 of say 1.5 (to spread among the younger pop) but that they can then modify it at will. And that somehow they’ll stop the elderly getting sick for long enough for true herd immunity to develop among the rest of the population, presumably while using measures that will only protect the elderly. And the time for this to burn through the population at a sustainable isn’t mentioned… 2 years, maybe? So concerts aren’t cool through 2022 but you can’t visit your grandparents, and we’ll have school one month but not the next, ignoring the interrelationships of elderly and the young vis a vis eg childcare.

    They may well not have a plan, but there’s no way they sat down and came up with this.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Moral Stone


    So concerts aren’t cool through 2022 but you can’t visit your grandparents,
     
    What?

    Replies: @Moral Stone

  • From Arguably Wrong, with the "basic reproduction number" or R0 on the horizontal axis and the total number of American deaths on the vertical (logarithmic) axis. Epidemiological modeling Posted by arguably wrong March 10, 2020 A basic SIR model for the epidemic. Total population 327 million, with a single initiating infection. 12 day course of...
  • @OscarWildeLoveChild
    How does this work in year (season) 2 and beyond? Similar to AIDS, or Polio (pre vaccine), where every year someone remembers that grandparent or kid that got coronavirus and died? Or does the layers of transmission (how many people/connections it runs through, to get to you) matter? Meaning, does it become less lethal or serious if you get from a long line of people who got it, vs. early catchers in say, China or Italy?

    I also ask because I heard a doctor say that such a virus gets less serious the further away from its epicenter, which to me only makes sense if he/they actually mean what I am asking--meaning, it gets less lethal/serious as it moves down the generations. Because otherwise, someone flying in from China who has it, standing next to me at a grocery store, is no less viral than if I was standing next to them at a Bat soup market in Wuhan...their distance from the Epicenter would not seem to matter...since they would be "early generation" of the virus.

    So is this just as deadly for a 20 year old, or a 70 year old, in November 2020, or Feb 2021?

    Replies: @Moral Stone, @Skeptikal

    There’s a tendency for viruses to attenuate over time. This is thought to be an evolutionary adaptation to increase fitness. For example, some very common viruses have mild symptoms in most people, because that helps with their spread. If a virus kills everyone who gets it in a day, for example, it won’t spread as much. To what degree and over what time span this will apply to the WuFlu I have no idea. But yes it’s possible that in the future the virus will be less deadly.