For example, he let young-gun directors James Cameron create Aliens and Denis Villeneuve Blade Runner 2049.
I don’t think the former was his choice, he didn’t own the rights back then.
Eventually, however, it was realized that historically, virtually all the enslavers of black slaves were their fellow blacks in Africa
I don’t think that’s quite true. Arabs would sometimes go on raids. That’s how Egypt conquered Sudan back in the day. And King Leopold had to fight some Arab slavers for control of the Congo (after which the people were forced to work to pay in-kind taxes that would cover what Leopold spent to acquire it, but weren’t themselves for sale anymore). But it was indeed easier to just buy them from locals much of the time.
“I always did like the Dinkas. Happy, idle, contented people, with few wants and no cares, singing to their cattle in the sun. Stark naked and free by the river banks and singing to their cattle in the sun. All they wanted was to he left alone, just like everybody else.
Nobody had ever been to see what happened to the north of the Post, between the Post and the River, which ran in a wrongly dotted line on a ‘provisional’ map. We vaguely knew that great plains stretched for miles in all directions and that there the Dinkas roamed about over the new-burnt pastures when the rains were over, driving their great flocks and herds northwards across the Lol up to the Bahr el Arab River. They gave no trouble to speak of and paid a ‘token’ cattle tax yearly to the Government which had never found time to go up and count their cattle.
All very easy and everybody was quite happy. Then the Arabs started coming down from beyond the River to the north, and panic spread and grew with every raid over the plains, and the Dinkas fled before the Arab horsemen thundering over the hard burnt soil and took refuge on the fringe of the forest to the south. Poor, gentle, timid Dinkas, they just ran and ran till where the plains met the forest. The Arabs used to ride down like lightning from their country beyond the River, spearing anyone they met on their road who offered resistance, and recrossing the river with a mob of raided cattle driven before them and lithe naked Dinka girls strapped on to their great saddles behind them.
So it went on. Something had to be done.
So I was sent up to the Bahr el Arab, across the River Lol north of the Post. I and Shawish Kapsur, Almaz, Selim and Yambios – to meet Musa Madibo, the Sheikh of the Arabs. He lived in unadministered country and beyond reach of the law. Slatin arranged the meeting on the river.
So I went up to the River and the shadow that was over the plains lifted and the Dinkas came forth again out of the protecting forest and drove their great bellowing herds back to pasture over the plains; singing to them by the rivers and lying in the sun.
We stood and looked at the River. There was no sign of anybody on the banks.
I said, ‘He ought to he here by now. We’ve had much further to go than he has.’
Kapsur said: ‘You never can depend on Arabs.’ I said: ‘But the Pasha himself wrote to him and fixed the date.’
‘You can’t depend on Arabs.’
I said, ‘Well, we can’t waste all day looking at the river waiting.’
‘It’s always waste of time to make a date with Arabs.’ That was Shawish Kapsur. He was a black heathen from somewhere or other – I forgot where. Some of our police came from the other side of Africa – kidnapped as children by Fellata pilgrims up Sokotu way and set free by us (with luck) in the Bahr el Ghazal.
Shawish Kapsur was very brave. He once charged a charging elephant, shouting and waving his straw hat, and turned it. I watched him as I lay (exhausted) in the mud. All very long ago. But for Kapsur and his fantastic charge, I suppose I should still be under the mud, down Meshra way.
I gave my mule to Selim to hold and wandered up the bank. Aimaz and Yambios were fishing. Shawish Kapsur came along with me.
I was wondering how long I ought to stay, waiting for a man who might never come, who lived beyond reach of the law, whom nobody had ever seen, except perhaps Slatin in the old Mahdi days. And then there was a thunder of galloping hoofs and I was in the middle of a crowd of Arab horsemen who’d suddenly appeared from nowhere.
I said: ‘Peace be upon you.’ I thought this was Sheikh Musa arriving with the usual Arab bluster and fantasia.
But there was no reply. ‘And upon you the peace’ and nobody dismounted to greet the Governor’s representative on the river. All the Arabs carried the long dervish spear and a few of them had old Remington rifles. Then I noticed the leaf-shaped spear heads and some of them were red.
Again I said, ‘El Salaam aleikum’ and still there was no response.
I said, ‘I have come as arranged by the Pasha to make peace on the border. Where is Sheikh Musa?’
Pax Britannica and all that. How fantastic!
What should Arabs want with the peace when the finest sport in the world was to be had at the expense of the unbelieving dogs of Dinkas? Infidel and uncircumcised Dinkas, flaunting their shame before the pious Moslems. The ride through the night – the fording of the boundary river – the mad gallop over the plains – the chase of the slim, shrieking Dinka and the long spear piercing his shining naked back….
The slender naked black girls lifted from the cattle posts and strapped, struggling, to the great saddles.
The mob of cattle driven bellowing to the north…. The boasting of great deeds done that day, in the safety of the camp fires fifty miles away …
There it was. They looked on it all from a slightly different angle. “
Strictly speaking, he didn’t say anything about immigrants taking anyone’s job. He’s saying that adding lots of people to the country increases the unemployment rate if they don’t all have jobs waiting for them. This can be the case if the native-born unemployment rate stays static while the foreign-born rate increases.
Are you sure you know how this works?
Strictly speaking, he didn’t say anything about immigrants taking anyone’s job. He’s saying that adding lots of people to the country increases the unemployment rate if they don’t all have jobs waiting for them. This can be the case if the native-born unemployment rate stays static while the foreign-born rate increases.
I would not have thought to examine the border between Louisiana & Texas to see the effects of Jim Crow, I had thought the paper was just about north vs south differences. I guess it makes sense that a much larger fraction of Louisiana’s population was black and that had downstream effects on its politics, even if Louisiana also had a history of less strict segregation from its French period.
This is a good point. Both Texas and Louisiana were Jim Crow states, so how does black Texans' better performance prove that black Louisianans were harmed by Jim Crow that both states had? The huge confounder is that Louisiana was and is much more black than Texas. Indeed, saying "confounder" is probably soft-pedaling; it's probably a sufficient explanation by itself.
examine the border between Louisiana & Texas to see the effects of Jim Crow ... a much larger fraction of Louisiana’s population was black
What’s surprising is that, as far as I know, there has never been a movie made about Chambers’ own spying for Moscow, and later his escape from the Party and attempts to bring it down. In my review of Witness I noted that was the most exciting bit, and since most film adaptations of books have to excise lots of material for runtime, and in this case it’s relatively obvious which bits should be cut.
The idea that those new forms of opioids were non-addictive wasn’t entirely made up. From my review of Dreamland:
[I]t’s easy to overlook the genuinely good intentions behind the revolution in medical attitudes toward treating pain with opioids. […] The search for a “holy grail” of painkiller which wouldn’t be addictive after morphine & heroin actually had some successes even if they weren’t perfect. Compared to all the problems of heroin, methadone really does appear to lack the euphoric highs & crashing lows that lead to an escalating addictive cycle & inability to function normally […] The surge in overdoses doctors observed were largely coming from Oxycontin[*], where the “contin” in the name refers to the continual release of the drug over time which is intended to similarly prevent those highs & lows. This made it safer to give people one large dose infrequently which was automatically doled out over time rather than people taking multiple small doses throughout the day. Oxycontin also had another advantage over some common painkillers in that it lacked ingredients which damaged the liver, a side effect that had served as an imperfect deterrent to the abuse of those other drugs. Unfortunately, people taking the drug without supervision were able to process the pills into a relatively pure high-quantity dose of opioid that could give addicts the euphoric surge they craved, and many elderly patients without any inclination to abuse the pills themselves had no qualms about selling their surplus and many people who would have been wary of heroin (and particularly anything requiring needles) found it easy to start with pills, only to later switch when they were thoroughly addicted and found pills more expensive than cheap Mexican black tar. Years into an epidemic of escalating prescriptions, addiction & overdoses, the formula was changed again and appears to successfully deter processing into a more abusable form. Unfortunately by this time heroin had grown enough off the back of pill usage that all of the shortfall in deaths from Oxycontin were offset by an increase in those from heroin.
Something Dreamland unfortunately didn’t discuss much is fentanyl, which is typically mixed in with drugs like heroin or cocaine and is responsible for most of the opioid deaths now. There was never a comparable number of people overdosing as a result of starting pills non-recreationally.
*I didn’t realize at the time I read it how much data is at odds with the narrative of the book.
Uh, what? Half of Dreamland is about fentanyl. The whole shebang--where it's made, how it gets here, the mules who sell it in little balloons. What they think about their chosen profession. You sure you read it?
Something Dreamland unfortunately didn’t discuss much is fentanyl
https://twitter.com/ruchirsharma_1/status/1767849076760981869Replies: @TGGP
Why don’t you link to where Sharma originally wrote this?
Thank you.
Why don’t you link to where Sharma originally wrote this?
https://twitter.com/ruchirsharma_1/status/1767849076760981869Replies: @TGGP
Why don’t you link to where Sharma originally wrote this?
This is who currently has the seat:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Hornstein
He was last re-elected to it in 2022, with 98.8% of the vote, running unopposed.
Has Will given any reasons to think he’d do a better job?
It’s heresy alright, but not necessarily Nazi heresy. It’s an heretical version of the pomo academic ideas commonly blamed, spread by people less smart than the originators of said ideas. And when people say the critical theory is just a law-school thing, they’re referring to the non-heritical strain, but the heretical strain is what’s spread out everywhere.
Is wokeness a heresy of academic postmodernism or merely its logical conclusion that the academics weren't smart enough to foresee?
It’s heresy alright, but not necessarily Nazi heresy. It’s an heretical version of the pomo academic ideas
the 1964 Civil Rights Act’s ban on sex discrimination in employment had been added as a joke by a segregationist senator trolling the bill
No, Howard Smith had longstanding connections with women’s groups and was a sponsor of the Equal Rights Amendment. He just figured that as long as the discrimination he liked was getting outlawed over opposition, he might as well also outlaw a kind of discrimination he disliked.
At the moment, they tend to be aggressively anti-Christian and antiwhite, racistly failing to distinguish between white Brits who humiliated them by offhandedly imperializing them and white Americans who had zero to do with the Raj.
I don’t think most Indian-Americans are deriving their political attitudes from conflating us with the British. Rather, immigrants have tended to be Democrats so far back that Hamilton blamed them for electing Jefferson to the presidency. China has a different history with Britain, but Chinese-Americans tend to have similar politics to Indian-Americans (particularly as neither tend to be Christian).
The relevant comparison for a North African monarchy is not the UK, but other North African countries. If it got rid of its monarch to become a republic, one might expect it to more closely resemble places like Libya or Algeria.
When Murray first tweeted this, I quibbled over which crimes should be considered “broken windows”.
"Flash incarceration" also seems much more in line with Mark Kleiman's theories about swift & certain punishment than broken windows, since the nature of the offense doesn't come into it.
— TGGP (@TeaGeeGeePea) July 21, 2023
Japan & Korea have very low fertility rates without immigration seeming to explain it.
Japan and Korea are already ridiculously overcrowded places with ridiculous housing costs. Their non-affordability is earned.
Japan & Korea have very low fertility rates without immigration seeming to explain it.
To compare apples to apples, if your timeline of population growth in Africa is from 1700 to 1900 then the same endpoint should apply to the US, Jamaica & Brazil. I expect you could find 1900 numbers for the US (without much need to adjust for immigrants), but I can’t say the same for the others.
I have repeatedly pointed to VDW as a counter-example to Sailer’s claim that MTFs are never NPR liberals rather than right-leaning masculine guys. He may be straight (married to Libby Hill), but always had politics & personality fit for Vox.
Are you deliberately trying to invoke this Scott Alexander post?
https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/09/16/cardiologists-and-chinese-robbers/
You didn’t link to the Greg Cochran post. It’s here:
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/09/20/time-of-isolation/
You refer to Tom Lehrer as “inventor of the Jell-O”, leaving out the word “shot” after it.
This seems like a question for Andrew Gelman. He regularly goes on about how data visualization should be improved, and how just graphing all the data is better than summarizing it with a single statistic.
The Sacklers and the cartels focused on hooking working class whites on painkillers and heroin in the early 21st century and avoided black inner cities.
Sam Quinones’ Dreamland says the Xalisco boys avoided inner cities so they wouldn’t have to deal with violence & carry guns, but I haven’t heard anything about that for the Sacklers. They’re not operating the actual pharmacies.
Andrew Gelman points out that Case & Deaton’s work has often been mischaracterized as showing an increased death rate for white men when it fact it decreased for them and only increased for white women:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2017/03/24/no-op-case-case-deaton/
Thanks much TGGP. I love demographic stuff, but don't spend a lot of cycles trying to follow this stuff.For people who would like to see it in graphs at a glance:https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2017/03/23/mortality-rate-trends-age-ethnicity-sex-state/Basically
Andrew Gelman points out that Case & Deaton’s work has often been mischaracterized as showing an increased death rate for white men when it fact it decreased for them and only increased for white women:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2017/03/24/no-op-case-case-deaton/
I was sure I could find a link from you ranking Bouie above TNC above Kendi, but I’m coming up short at the moment. In the meantime, John McWhorter & Glenn Loury (both professors of subjects they didn’t make up themselves) have called out the emperor-has-no-clothes aspect of Kendi:
It’s just just a matter of dysgenics: as you yourself have pointed out, Kendi is obviously dumber than Ta-Nehisi Coates & Jamelle Bouie. His stupidity and the resulting simplemindedness of his message is precisely what made him preferable to them in 2020.
Are they different? I thought they were the same person. Is there a difference between them?
It’s just just a matter of dysgenics: as you yourself have pointed out, Kendi is obviously dumber than Ta-Nehisi Coates......................
I don’t have data for this, but it’s my impression that among female directors & standup comedians, lesbians are heavily overrepresented. As with your earlier post on sports, this seems connected to gender-typical interests/behavior being correlated with heterosexuality.
I was curious about British casualty figures at Omdurman. I found a claim that 70 of the < 400 21st Lancers involved in that charge were killed or wounded, and that total British casualties at Omdurman were 47 killed and 382 wounded (the Mahdists on the other hand had 12K killed, 13K wounded & 5K captured). So I'd expect most of Churchill's peers were neither wounded nor killed, but if they were casualties were probably wounded rather than killed.
My understanding is that school closures didn’t hurt the mental health of teens since nowadays they mostly make each other miserable in school.
mmack may LOL, but there were certainly reports of some increase in mental health after kids were no longer forced to endure that type of frank child abuse.
My understanding is that school closures didn’t hurt the mental health of teens since nowadays they mostly make each other miserable in school.
I believe that “somebody named Tom Lee” is the brother of Timothy B. Lee, who currently contributes to the Substack “Full Stack Economics” and describes himself in his Twitter bio as “Alum of @washingtonpost, @voxdotcom, and @arstechnica”. I recall Tim used to work for either Cato or Reason.
Yes, Robin Hanson has proposed a better system.
https://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/01/fine-grain-futarchy-zoning-via-harberger-taxes.html
Unusually for a libertarian-leaning economist, he also has a proposal for a kind of public housing:
https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/11/universal-basic-dorms.html
Why do you believe television is in the process of going away? Streaming has greatly boosted it, and the whole format of medium budget movies is now disappearing as they get turned into miniseries.
At the time, it was claimed to be a "classic kids film"--it was supposedly going to be to Gen X what The Wizard of Oz was to Boomers (once Oz made the jump to annual television showings), but as an Xer, I can tell you it has been utterly forgotten, or dismissed as "A Boy and His Dog" story. You can forget about Milennials or Alphas knowing anything about it. The modal moviegoer of 2022 statistically was born in 1998. ET is something they have to look up on wikipedia.Replies: @Peter Akuleyev, @TGGP
ET has become a classic kids film, it is hardly forgotten. It was also never meant to spawn a franchise, while Avatar clearly was.
I’m a Millennial and you’re wrong.
This claim from Sailer struck me as bizarre. I’m too young to have caught ET in theaters, but of course I know it precisely because it has endured. Would Stranger Things exist if not for ET? It has to be one of the most “enduring” of Spielberg’s films after Jaws & Raiders of the Lost Ark. Perhaps Sailer is too old to have seen the film as a member of its intended audience (children).
An individual cannot be diverse, as diversity is a property that belongs to aggregations. So Lewis Hamilton could have diverse ancestors instead.
I’ve always heard that g-forces gave women a biological advantage (due to their smaller body size) when it comes to flying fighter jets. Also, that tall men are disqualified from that because they can’t fit in the cockpit.
Dreyfuss doesn’t play Brody, but Hooper. Scheider plays Brody.
And he knows this how? My kids never wished they could celebrate Christmas, not even when they were too small to understand why different people have different traditions. They knew Hanukah was better- EIGHT days of presents (and usually earlier than Christmas).
Jewish mothers fear Christmas because their kids wish they could celebrate it.
Like I said, he knows this from personal experience (of being raised Jewish).
Per his unauthorized (but tolerated) biographer his real reaction included “Steven on his front porch in New Jersey wearing a white sheet, lit up by a revolving color wheel, as he pretended to be Jesus to offset the fact that his family did not have Christmas decorations”. That’s not in the film, but his girlfriend does explicitly say that Jesus (the most acceptable male for her to channel her energies toward) must have looked like Sammy.
I recall Half Sigma (who I believe goes by “Lion of the Blogosphere” now) saying that, based on his experience, Jewish mothers fear Christmas because their kids wish they could celebrate it. And in the film Sammy does say the thing he wants for Hannukah is Christmas lights. Robin Hanson (son of a Baptist minister) has been theorizing about the “meaning of Christmas” and the relevance of its special appeal to children recently, but neglected the angle of why it holds more appeal than Hannukah.
And he knows this how? My kids never wished they could celebrate Christmas, not even when they were too small to understand why different people have different traditions. They knew Hanukah was better- EIGHT days of presents (and usually earlier than Christmas).
Jewish mothers fear Christmas because their kids wish they could celebrate it.
Thanks.
Per his unauthorized (but tolerated) biographer
When going to the list of winning cinematographers I recall finding that Wally Pfister was ethnically German rather than Jewish (somewhat to my surprise). He stopped being Christopher Nolan’s go-to-guy (Hoyte van Hoytema replaced him) when he decided he just wanted to direct rather than film someone else’s movies. He only directed one film (Transcendence) and some TV, but hasn’t had any credits in years. Between the two of them, Lubezki made the right choice.
However, I don’t think Lubezki has DPd for one of the three amigos. Instead, Guillermo del Toro typically relies on Guillermo Navarro (though more recently Dan Laustsen has had that job).
You should actually watch the movie (it’s good) to see where Sailer is just inserting his hobbyhorses and where it’s the unavoidable text of the film. For example:
The film does involve a relationship between Sammy Fabelman and a comedically Christian boycrazy girl at his highschool. But he doesn’t have to do much of anything to compete with the jocks for her attention. With more perspective than Sammy has in the film, she seems to view him as a safe boy to date who will go along with whatever she wants him to do, and then they will go their separate ways after highschool to more mature relationships (this last bit in particular is one thing Sammy doesn’t immediately grok about his first girlfriend). To the extent that Sammy ever had any interest in the betrayed girlfriend of the cheating jerk jock, this is forgotten once he gets a girlfriend of his own.
I thought they were a LOT more prevalent in acting than cinematography. Adam Sandler's Hannukah Song is full of Jewish actors.
In Hollywood, Jews tend to dominate the business side, less so the screenwriting side, even less directing, and least of all cinematography and acting
I decided to investigate via Academy Awards whether cinematography was less Jewish than acting. Conclusion: as I expected.
In Hollywood, Jews tend to dominate the business side, less so the screenwriting side, even less directing, and least of all cinematography and acting
I thought they were a LOT more prevalent in acting than cinematography. Adam Sandler’s Hannukah Song is full of Jewish actors.
Your note about Spielberg casting gentiles as his parents (without noting that the Jewish Gabrielle LaBelle plays teenaged Sammy Fabelman) reminded me of The Graduate, where Dustin Hoffman (in a role written for a Robert Redford type) sticks out compared to both his on-screen parents & SoCal surroundings via his ethnicity.
Also, thinking of those parents again, Paul Dano has children with Zoe Kazan, who has played Jewish women in both the self-consciously Jewish Plot Against America and the less Jewish overall She Said, where she still connects to another character (a disgruntled former accountant from Harvey Weinstein’s Miramax) on the basis of their shared Jewish milieu.
Worth linking to Andrew Gelman on this category when you brought it up before:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/06/15/objects-of-the-class-pauline-kael/
I saw this in the theater and liked it a lot (but not as much as Banshees of Inisherin). I do wonder how Field was able to afford raising four children when he hasn’t directed anything since 2006.
That came up in the TV series Silicon Valley. The protagonist is told that if he doesn’t become something of an asshole at the head of his startup, it will create an “asshole vacuum”.
Tar has the opposite arc from Queen’s Gambit. The latter tracks its protagonist from an orphanage to the top of competitive chess. The former begins with its protagonist at her peak, then just tracks her downfall. I hesitate to spoil things, but she doesn’t even succeed in “seducing” any woman and instead just alienates everyone around her.
Back in 2000 the Onion could mock the movie cliche by having a scrappy band of misfit campers contain:
African-American computer expert Malcolm “Hackmeister” LaVont
https://www.theonion.com/scrappy-band-of-lovable-misfits-no-match-for-rich-kids-1819565867
I was actually annoyed that the Mission: Impossible sequels added Simon Pegg for a technician role when the original De Palma film already had Ving Rhames’ Luther Stickell.
When I was a boy (((Mad Magazine))) used to do (very unfunny) rips on current movies.
Back in 2000 the Onion could mock the movie cliche by having a scrappy band of misfit campers contain:
Rick Beato did indeed discuss “Never Gonna Let You Go”, which he also struggled to play as a young musician.
More on how pop music has gotten simpler:
https://slate.com/culture/2012/07/pop-music-is-getting-louder-and-dumber-says-one-study-heres-what-they-miss.html
Partly a matter of a small number of super-producers making a larger share of hit songs:
https://pudding.cool/2018/05/similarity/
An election won’t replace the people in the media who trumpeted a “reckoning”. And they won’t lose money just because their actions caused their preferred political party to lose elections. So this idiocy can continue indefinitely. As David Schleicher has noted, there isn’t really partisan political competition in cities. We need to change that (he has quixotically suggested prohibiting the national political parties at the local level) in order for elections to matter.
Oklahoma (state song, “All My Exes Live in Texas”) has ornery residents of every color.
Even Asians?
Well, if you consider 20,000 year-ago Siberian migrants to be Asian, then yeah.
Even Asians?
I recall that Travis Bickle does shoot a black robber of a convenience store in the film.
There’s something very wrong with post 1964 Civil Rights Act African-American culture that blacks from liberal America are less and less able to compete with blacks from more socially conservative cultures in Africa.
To be fair, there are a LOT of Africans in Africa you can filter from to fill out the limited number of slots in the top selective colleges. If schools were actually indifferent to the nationality of their students, you wouldn’t expect African-Americans to outnumber actual Africans. But my impression is that immigrant Africans (not including refugees like most Somalis here) are able to persistently have an advantage into the next generation without much regression to the mean, so they may indeed have more functional cultures. But this likely applies to American vs selective immigrant cultures more broadly.
It is so interesting that readers of this blog attribute difference in performance between descendants of American slaves (DOAS) and immigrants from Africa to “culture” rather than to biology. Were slaves a representative sample of the African population? Could the grouping have had disproportionate elements of criminality and mental illness? How were they selected by their African brethren?
But my impression is that immigrant Africans (not including refugees like most Somalis here) are able to persistently have an advantage into the next generation without much regression to the mean, so they may indeed have more functional cultures.
In American NIMBY circles, the opposite is fashionable: let everybody build without providing parking places on site.
You are confusing requiring the vehicle-owner to have a place to park with requiring the building-owner to provide parking. Those are very different things!
The Wire was much better than Boardwalk Empire (which included a black gangster played by an actor from The Wire). Simon had spent a lot of time with Baltimore police, and knew what he was talking about. I only watched a relatively small portion of Hill Street Blues, but there’s really no comparison. Simon being a jerk to somebody on twitter who knew a murder victim and ignorant of the homicide rate in Boise doesn’t change that.
I’d like to know the actual stats for per capita white victims of homicide in Baltimore vs OKC, Boise or other cities.
Per the Latino Alignment Chart, Englishmen can claim to be Latino due to the Norman conquest, but since Italians already spoke Latin natively they don’t count:
Latino Alignment Chart
byu/Revolutionary_Wash52 inLatinoPeopleTwitter
I have a relative who works for the state government of Minnesota and is always complaining about the rampant daycare fraud by the same sorts of people, so this is not very surprising.
Same-sex marriage is primarily for lesbians, rather than gay men. The lesbians still have a high divorce rate, but gay men aren’t interested enough in monogamy to provide a comparable amount of demand.
I tried to select the “Agree” option but was told I didn’t have enough recent comments. I didn’t realize I could lose privileges like that!
Zach Goldberg was affiliated with Richard Hanania’s CSPI, but has moved on to the Manhattan Institute.
It’s been great having Zach from the founding of CSPI in 2020. Our goal has been to find the most interesting thinkers out there capable of doing high level work and giving them a platform to help them make their ideas part of the conversation. We’ve succeeded so far. https://t.co/0iF88G3F0a
— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) September 1, 2022
There was the concession to realism that lesbians aren’t at significant risk, but focusing on female-to-male transexuals is strange when they make up hardly any of the cases.
An ev-psych theory on why women are more into dance than men:
It covers an area Sailer didn’t: polygamous cultures where dancing tends to be done by a large group of men doing basic movements in unison. The most basic such movement was re-invented by the punk subculture: the pogo.
Interesting. Meaning, it confirms a casual observation I made from watching one or two clips of Africans (real ones, not from Pittsburgh) dancing in their native habitat. No natural rhythm nonsense, no elaborate James Brown steps, just jumping up and down in place. It confirms my belief that "natural rhythm" is a myth, whether its a "racist trope" or another "White men can't...."
an area Sailer didn’t: polygamous cultures where dancing tends to be done by a large group of men doing basic movements in unison. The most basic such movement was re-invented by the punk subculture: the pogo.
I recall you suggesting that immigrants should require some sort of bond in case they misbehaved. Robin Hanson wants to apply that sort of thing for everyone. I actually think it’s a good idea, although competing bounty hunters (another part of his proposal) may not have the ability to take on organized crime that a more monopolistic law enforcement institution has.
https://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/09/who-vouches-for-you.html
Most of your “woke conspiracy theories” are theories of bias, like the bias you give responsibility for researchers previously finding that conspiracy theories were more popular on the right.
Not exactly.
Most of your “woke conspiracy theories” are theories of bias, like the bias you give responsibility for researchers previously finding that conspiracy theories were more popular on the right.
Rather than being a 19th century British novel it’s an early 20th Century Hollywood film set in France (albeit with only one Frenchman in the cast), but Rouben Mamoulian’s “Love Me Tonight” is about a tailor who gets mistaken for an aristocrat while trying to get a customer & spendthrift offspring of a nobleman to pay off his debts. I don’t know enough about French literature to say how popular that sort of storyline was over there.
No, it's simpler to assume that people are full of it and/or are easily persuaded. Why do you think advertising works?Replies: @Pontius, @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Curmudgeon, @Art Deco, @TGGP, @Cagey Beast, @Luddite in Chief
Isn’t it simpler to assume that some people really can tell wines apart by taste and smell?
This is the real reason advertising works:
http://www.meltingasphalt.com/ads-dont-work-that-way/
Not because people are dumb, but because they’re smart enough to recognize the signal associated with a product and then make use of it by conspicuously consuming it.
As for wines, Steve did not provide “endless evidence” that anyone can distinguish them in a taste test.
Endless evidence is available. The question is, evidence for what? Taste, or fraud?
As for wines, Steve did not provide “endless evidence” that anyone can distinguish them in a taste test.
This made me think of Richard Hanania on safetyism vs what makes life worth living. He’s glad that in America guns are allowed even though obviously they can kill people, and that we didn’t lock everything down in response to COVID like China (he even hates masks with a passion, which seem like a relatively minor hassle to me whose problem is low effectiveness relative to vaccines). To a lot of people, having bloc parties is the thing to look forward to, regardless of whether there’s a pandemic or risk that somebody might shoot it up. Steve himself wrote along those lines that COVID isn’t like AIDS penalizing the most deviant/risky behavior but instead what is best in life.
I was surprised you associated the Bantu expansion with east Africa. I tend to associate the east with Nilotic languages instead.
The Japanese were also rather isolationist & reactionary until Commodore Perry made it clear they couldn’t keep the rest of the world out. What’s astonishing is how they were able to change in response. Thomas Sowell used that & the Scottish Enlightenment as examples of cultures greatly changing for the better.
GRRM has confirmed that Renly & Loras were a gay couple, but neither was a POV character so readers didn’t see it directly. Jaime, however, upbraids Loras at one point with reference to Renly’s history of sodomizing him. Oberyn less directly alludes’ to Loras’ former status as Renly’s catamite, and other people talk about Oberyn being a bisexual. Some gay characters in the books who didn’t make into the show include Jon Connington (also not directly stated but confirmed by GRRM), Whoresbane Umber, Lyn Corbray and Septon Utt (a villainous pedophile, perhaps making him un-PC even if he’s also a clergyman). The new House of the Dragon prequel series based on Fire & Blood will contain Laenor Velaryon, who is clearly gay in GRRM’s book. The show differed by making Yara (Asha in the books) a lesbian rather than straight. Arguably, their approach to sexuality was closer in line to gendered stereotypes than Martin’s: if a woman acts in a more masculine manner she seems like a butch lesbian to D&D (Arya & Brienne are exceptions because the former is a child and the latter being in love with Renly is central to her character, although in the show she says she was aware of his sexuality), whereas Renly is made less like Robert and Loras’ warrior prowess is de-emphasized due to them being gay men.
That stuff about Vikings sounds like nonsense, but if you’ve been reading Razib Khan for a long time you’d know that very ancient Europeans did have dark skin (not necessarily black) and blue eyes. White skin emerged more recently than the earliest pyramids.
I don't think the "usual protestations" was an admission of rape. I think Jacque's phrase refers to the morality of the era involving adultery, which has since been defined as "courtly love," in which a married lady was expected not to give up her virtue so easily during a nobleman's pursuit of her. That certainly squares with Driver's interpretation of the bedroom scene. He doesn't rape her, but she plays coy (i.e., "the usual protestations") before giving herself up to him.Replies: @TGGP
He denies it publicly and to his rival, but to his lord he admits he had sex with Margeurite and she made “the usual protestations”, and they agree that their sophisticated sexual morality will not fly in public so he should deny it happened.
I thought initially it was going to go in that direction with how she was acting towards him, but she never actually “gives herself up to him”.
If Damon loses, by the way, his wife will be burned at the stake for perjury.
That was supposedly the letter of the law (to act like they took perjury very seriously) but in practice they would just whip the woman.
https://slate.com/culture/2021/10/last-duel-movie-historical-accuracy.html
Yes, the film minimizes her history with him by acting like he died shortly later, when the majority of their marriage actually took place after the duel.
He denies it publicly and to his rival, but to his lord he admits he had sex with Margeurite and she made “the usual protestations”, and they agree that their sophisticated sexual morality will not fly in public so he should deny it happened. What happened in real life was funnier: he insisted he wasn’t there and had an alibi… but the guy who was supposed to vouch for him got arrested for another rape! So I agree with Steve that this change from the historical record made the film worse.
I don't think the "usual protestations" was an admission of rape. I think Jacque's phrase refers to the morality of the era involving adultery, which has since been defined as "courtly love," in which a married lady was expected not to give up her virtue so easily during a nobleman's pursuit of her. That certainly squares with Driver's interpretation of the bedroom scene. He doesn't rape her, but she plays coy (i.e., "the usual protestations") before giving herself up to him.Replies: @TGGP
He denies it publicly and to his rival, but to his lord he admits he had sex with Margeurite and she made “the usual protestations”, and they agree that their sophisticated sexual morality will not fly in public so he should deny it happened.
The full Balzac quote is actually that if a great fortune is unexplained, it’s because a great crime has been concealed.
Getting access to someone’s therapy sessions was a creepy thing for Harvard to do:
https://twitter.com/DrSepinwall/status/1491117998400098304
I don't understand. Who is Haiti deporting? And why? Almost anyone picked at random would raise the nation's human capital score.
#StopHaitianDeportations
It would not be “roughly 20” patents over a 20 year period. 3.5 patents per year times 20 years would be about 70 patents.
The first such leftist song that came to my mind was Ten Years After’s “I’d Love to Change the World”, used in the trailer for Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 9/11”.
Doesn't seem so "leftist" anymore.
Everywhere is / Freaks and hairies / Dykes and fairies / Tell me, where is sanity?
Do you actually know whether Meeks is sharing a woman with another guy, or did dog bite man and is his the usual case of polygyny rather than polyandry?
Emily Yoffe was Dear Prudence when I started regularly reading Slate. It was then turned over to Mallory Ortberg, an adult woman previously of womens’/feminist websites The Toast and The Hairpin. Dear Prudence became parodically “woke” and uninterested in giving useful advice to real questions (hence inspiring those fake letters discussed in Gawker), and now Ortberg is Daniel Lavery, whose new advice column appears to focus on trans issues. So that’s one against your generalization. I’ve previously (and repeatedly) pointed to Todd/Emily Vanderwerff (married to Libby Hill, who previously wrote about their struggles to conceive a child) as an exception to Sailer’s generalization about late-onset ex-men being hard-charging masculine types rather than NPR folk.
Perhaps my knowledge is distorted by hearing from Katie Herzog (who complains that lesbian spaces are disappearing), but in terms of ex-females I’ve mostly heard of lesbians who continued dating the same pool of women after transition. Ortberg called herself a bisexual and is currently married to an ex-man (hence the new last name).
So, like, that could change at any moment?
is currently married to an ex-man
There are Dems who have characterized her as being officially tasked with issues that no progress is expected to be made on. Better her than Biden, is the motivation. Nobody actually seems to be planning on a Harris presidential campaign.
Yglesias is a liberal/progressive, rather than a leftist. Greenwald & Taibbi are more leftist contrarian Jews (Freddie de Boer is a non-Jewish, as far as I know, Marxist critic of a lot of the same stuff those three complain about).
: Your only comparisons were between Trump in 2020 & Youngkin this year. You need to look at Trump in 2016, as well as Romney & McCain before then. And when I say racial polarization has gone down, I don’t mean it has gone to zero and is irrelevant. But when Steve talks about a recent backlash to woke ideological overreach, it wasn’t manifested via whites rallying to Trump (otherwise he probably would have been re-elected).
:
Trump doing better with northern midwestern whites who weren’t ideological conservatives gave him an advantage in the electoral college that got him elected in 2016. But he just lost, and the one demographic group that swung against him in 2020 compared to 2016 was white males.
:
Whites are the largest demographic group, and also the most Republican (and have been GOP-leaning since LBJ). So Republican victories depend on them. The changes on the margin I’m talking about recently don’t mean Republicans can rely on majorities from other groups broadly speaking, though in some specific places (like Florida) that can happen.
I think Sailer is too invested in his “Sailer strategy” conceived in the Bush era to take note of recent developments. In the Trump era, polarization by race & income have gone down, while polarization by education has gone up. So the Dems aren’t losing because of a backlash by “core” Americans, but instead of a broader swath of Americans who just aren’t onboard with the “woke” graduate degree holders.
TGGP, i certainly get your point about education. Trump's particular character and manner just seemed to particularly annoy "educated" Americans, who like to think of themselves as the great and the good.
I think Sailer is too invested in his “Sailer strategy” conceived in the Bush era to take note of recent developments. In the Trump era, polarization by race & income have gone down, while polarization by education has gone up. So the Dems aren’t losing because of a backlash by “core” Americans, but instead of a broader swath of Americans who just aren’t onboard with the “woke” graduate degree holders.
That is the million dollar point. As academia more and more female, these half-cocked ideas get pushed out more. It becomes less desirable for men to attend university until there are no male undergrads.
while polarization by education has gone up.
Peter Turchin critiqued Graeber & Wengrow here:
https://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/an-anarchist-view-of-human-social-evolution/
But that kind of enlightened self-restraint can’t last forever in a competitive market.
That seems an odd way of characterizing things. The “Xalisco Boys” were scared of tangling with established violent gangs. They also avoided carrying guns themselves (or even large amounts of drugs individually) to minimize what they could be charged with, seeing as how their own presence in the US was already legally dubious and their plentiful cheap labor model depended on low risk.
I reviewed “Dreamland” a couple years ago, and more recently thought it worth noting Jubal Harshaw’s critique of it.
This was debunked before Steve blogged it:
Hey everybody: the survey finding 34% of white ppl lie about their race (half of whom say they're Native American) in college applications is very BS. See this thread but simple math says that would mean at least 17% of apps claiming to be NA, and that's not at all the case. https://t.co/wV7lqmctrQ
— Daniel Laurison (@Daniel_Laurison) October 26, 2021
Reading up on Herbert’s inspiration in the conflict between Tsarist Russia & Muslims of the Caucusus reminded me: are there any good movies on the expansion of Tsarist Russia? There are plenty of American westerns on how the US spread from sea to shining sea despite opposition from the natives, but the only “Osterns” I’m aware of take place during the Russian Civil War of the early 20th Century with Bolsheviks as the heroes and Central Asia already supposed to be under their nominal authority. And, on a related note, I’m still curious about what technological advantage the Russians had in their wars with Persia.
Villenueve is not really like James Cameron. Cameron makes fist-pumping popcorn movies. Compare his script for Rambo to the original First Blood, or his Aliens to Ridley Scott’s Alien. His original Terminator was quite tense for an action movie, but the sequel was a very different animal tonally. Cameron would never make a movie like Incendies, Prisoner or Enemy. Even Sicario, an action movie, is far too cynical and audience-punishing for him (although the sequel to that was disappointingly conventional and retconned a lot that was distinctive about it).
I’d just like to note that the more stereotypically male mind of economist Robin Hanson provides some support to her with “Why Have Opinions?”
I was under the impression that job went to people who weren’t old enough to serve drinks, but I guess teenage jobs aren’t a thing anymore.
I’ve told this anecdote before, but I’ll tell it again. I never worked in any restaurants (retail instead), but I had a sister who was a hostess at a chain restaurant, and a brother (not small or someone who would have any difficulty carrying trays) who followed in her footsteps. The waiters hated when the host assigned them tables of black customers because they tipped less, and one waiter accused my brother of deliberately assigning him to such tables. In response, my brother then assigned him to exactly that every chance he could. The waiter then blew up at him and got fired.
Come on, now. We all know the proper codeword is Canadian.
The waiters hated when the host assigned them tables of black customers because they tipped less
Andrew Gelman on Theranos:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/09/08/why-did-bill-gates-say-this-about-bad-blood/
Annissa Essaibi George is half Tunisian & half Polish. Both ancestries would be categorized as Caucasian by the US government, though there was an attempt to shift the Middle East/North Africa out of that bloc.
The recent film “Judas and the Black Messiah” had a scene where the Black Panthers & a fictionalized version of the Blackstone Rangers meet up in a scene that’s supposed to be tense because the FBI (employers of the protagonist) were trying to instigate conflicts between the two, although they just end up working together. Apparently the Rangers still exist in Chicago, but I can’t recall hearing about them in later decades. My thoughts on the film itself are here.
My understanding is that MLK conspiracy theories have more traction among African Americans, including MLK’s own family. And since the FBI had actually conspired against MLK, it’s understandable to think there are larger forces at work. But in the first world lone wackos really outpunch large organizations in the assassination department.
I got an error message when I first tried to post my reply to Triteleia and then posted the same thing in reply to you, but since you both brought up Sikhs it works either way. There doesn’t seem to be a way to delete double-posts like this.
Sikh men, who should all carry knives to cut up rivals, are not meant to cut any hair from any part of their own body, including their head. The Vikings also liked to have long hair and seemed to have prized their combs almost as much as the axes they butchered their enemies with.
The only cultures I can think of offhand where men wear their hair longer than women are two black ones: the famously photogenic Maasai of Kenya and Rastafarians of Jamaica.
You're reading far too much into this. Black people's hair is a lot harder to maintain. This means that for black women to have longer hair, which is often expected, it can take an hour a day to look after, or more. Even keeping your arms above your head for that long is exhausting and hurts, nevermind the pain on your scalp from de-knotting. This is enough to make anyone mad.
My guess is that a lot of hubbub among black women over society’s attitudes toward their hair is caused by black hair being the shortest on average by far, which puts them at a disadvantage in competing with women of other races for men
He's wrong. Untanned European men are fairer than untanned European women.
For example, Peter Frost has documented that women tend to be a little more fair-skinned than men (as measured on the untanned inside of the upper arm) around the world, which is why English poets called them the fair sex.
For a long time the Han Chinese had a rule against men cutting any of their hair. This derived from the Confucian belief that your parents give you your hair, and while they can cut it while you are a child, once as an adult to cut it would be to disrespect them. So they bound their hair up in topknots and under hats. When the Manchu conquered them, they legally required men to cut their hair into Manchu queues as a public display of accepting the new order. Many refused to shave the fronts of their heads at all and were killed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queue_(hairstyle)#Queue_order
Scott Sumner tried to figure out why the rest of the world was following the U.S media’s lead here:
https://www.econlib.org/african-american-lives-matter/
But there he (implicitly) argues that non-American blacks aren’t so significant to the rest of the world.
It’s not just Perry Preschool. There’s also the Abecedarian study, which had fewer subjects than there are papers based on it.
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2017/07/20/nobel-prize-winning-economist-become-victim-bog-standard-selection-bias/
For those curious, here’s Gelman on a Perry Preschool study:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/24/the-latest-perry-preschool-analysis-noisy-data-noisy-methods-flexible-summarizing-big-claims/
Wounding, say, the schoolmarm during a shootout would likely get you lynched by the unanimous decision of the men of the mining town
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Dead_in_Five_Seconds_Gunfight
“While running, Stoudenmire fired wildly, killing Ochoa, an innocent Mexican bystander who was running for cover”
Stoudenmire was killed, and his killers acquitted, but it was due to the pre-existing feud that sparked this fight rather than the innocent bystander killed accidentally. And yes, Ochoa may not have been a “schoolmarm”, but was still just a random bystander.
I believe you already reported that Asians are the exception to the rule that most crime victims were victimized by a member of their own race. It’s possible that they are more likely to live in urban areas where a lot of crime is taking place, whereas white Californians are more likely to live in rural areas.