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    Here’s a new Open Thread for everyone. For those interested, here are my more recent articles: The War of Goebbels’ Czech Mistress Ron Unz • The Unz Review • December 8, 2025 • 6,700 Words Donald Trump as Our President Caligula Ron Unz • The Unz Review • December 15, 2025 • 8,300 Words Donald...
  • @A123
    @songbird


    Trump should send Vance covertly to one of these German cities, to begin touring off the beaten path
     
    Why Vice President Vance? He has many more important things to do.

    Why covertly? One would need enough camouflage to keep from being attacked, but it is hardy a covert spy mission.

    Go off the beaten path in former East Germany and one might do well. There are probably a goodly number of villages that have kept Muslim migrants away. They would be better run and more civilized even if they are not particularly wealthy.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird, @Philip Owen

    If Germany is like the UK, the exurban villages are overrun by downshifters from a nearby city. Suburbs have the most stable population.

  • @songbird
    @German_reader


    I thought that weirdo who stalked Karlin (Oliver or whatever he was called) might actually have had a point when he claimed Kierkegaard was doing pseudo-science and publishing only in fake journals specifically set up for this purpose.
     
    Lol. I don't know about that particular study. I agree, to an extent about unreliable samples - but it is kind of an expansive theory, in that with the right data, you could expand it to other regions, like the Islamic golden age, or the end of Tang China. It is very bold, maybe a bit too bold, but all archeogenetics is like that - they are always trying to infer too much, based on too small a sample - and sometimes it fails, after a larger sample is gathered, just like how the Jōmon ancestry in Japan was recently doubled, based on new data - I think it may have largely been based on one new skeleton.

    But I 100% agree with Kirkegaard about journals: it is a racket. And a woke one. Does it make sense to pay $10,000 to publish an article? Or hundreds of dollars to subscribe to a journal? The replication crisis has shown us that a lot of the published stuff is fake. Not to mention, we know journals decline articles on political grounds.

    And there is a lot wrong with journals beyond that. The delays to being published have grown very significantly. And we don't get the negative data from the experiments that don't work and aren't published.


    So at least in such regions you might have about 600 years for genetic pacification through executions.
     
    It seems to me a lot lower than that, if we are talking when the drop in violence actually began.

    I don't really know the facts, but impressionistically it feels wrong to me. For example, I wonder whether Brehon Law would have been in effect in a lot of Ireland until about 1600. A lot of historians consider the Famine a remarkably peaceful time, where the average person showed a shocking lack of aggression. Of course, there was some violence, and, perhaps, more importantly, the country was heavily policed or garrisoned.

    But there were parts of Ireland where people were still kidnapping their bride into the 1800s, that sounds pretty lawless, even if one considers it was often done with consent.

    The borderlands in the UK seem another place with a questionable level of law enforcement, and I am sure there are many others. I think really, almost any rural area, and people mainly came from the farms.

    Btw, I didn't realize until recently that serfdom existed in parts of Germany into the 1800s. I guess i was thinking too much about the Hanseatic League.


    Not clear to me though how you could prove such a thesis.
     
    Yeah, it is not really clear to me either. Like a lot of murder is probably violent schizophrenia, but there is a certain idea that schizophrenia only existed in humans and not neanderthals, for instance. So, if that is the case, animal models of aggression probably wouldn't work too well.

    But I guess there are always the different human races, as well as violent offenders, plus archeo finds.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    I come from a remote mountainous Celtic region. By reputation, fairs and markets were occassions for violence. That was still the case for weddings when I was growing up. The police hated weddings. In a pub the bystanders would help the police. At a wedding both sides would go for the police.

    Family circumstances lead me to think that schizophrenia is comorbid with (very) high IQ, within top 1%. They go together at least in some cases. In other cases its too much ganja.

    • Thanks: songbird
  • @Emil Nikola Richard
    Does anybody know where I can get a mortal-man-budget edition of a suit like this? I have suddenly realized all my suits are frumpy compared to the style of 2026. Well I only own four suits but still we all gotta make some effort here.

    https://d424xpahrb6377.archive.is/Qpust/3766dd9e765a3e09e4148c1cd31f110c0733a820.jpg

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    £3000 worth I would guess. When I was working and sometimes rich I used to use a Hong Kong tailor who visited the UK every couple of months to measure customers. He visits cities across the UK, US, Canada and Australia.

  • @songbird
    @Bashibuzuk

    Progress in the Russian space program seems to have very much ground to a halt, if there was any to start with. A lot of their plans seem to only be on paper. How many years ago did I first read about the Amur? Have heard some plan for a rotating station at 1/2 g - but who could believe it based on the current record?

    IMO, a lot of countries' space programs are quite pathetic. I am thinking especially of the EU, but also somewhat Japan and Korea, who should combine their programs.

    The only programs with some significant future progress seem to be the US and China. (Maybe, India?) The US almost purely through fixed-price contracts, which the Chinese have noted and begun to emulate.

    On total spent, I don't think the US program is impressive at all, beyond the new commercial companies that have been fostered - that part at least was money well-spent. But not SLS, which seems pathetic when you consider all the Somali fraud (I mean of the current $9 billion figure from MN) would have only paid for three launches.

    The most fantastic space engineering could have been done even in small countries like Denmark or Sweden - Mars missions, etc., based on what has been spent on migrants. All these "I effing love science" people, and they have whittled and misspent all this capital on blackamoors. Amounts that could have cured diseases or maybe even led to space elevators.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Philip Owen

    I can’t remember exactly but when the war was revived in 2022 byt September some deputy in the Duma said that Russia needed 56 staellite launches to resotre Glonass, and their comms satellites to functionality. He also mentioned that only 2 observation satellites were in orbit.

  • @Regis Leon
    @Bashibuzuk

    Although not from the military, you can count as incompetent degenerates in Russian high positions Nabiullina and Dimitriev. I know, I insist too much on these characters but their level of imbecility is staggering and I didn't fully processed that there is a country in the world where such idiots can reach top brass, make huge blunders and still remain there... It's unbelievable to me. I still wonder...

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Philip Owen

    Nabullia is extremely competent. She has kept the show on the road although she wanted out.

    • Replies: @Regis Leon
    @Philip Owen

    That's a malinformed statement. Nabiullina is shit.

    , @Regis Leon
    @Philip Owen

    That's a stupid statement. She is a complete idiot.

  • The Epstein cloud is metastasizing and becoming a rallying point for deep-seated popular alienation from certain ruling strata. The public begrudgingly has become resigned to accept that their ‘rulers’ routinely lie and steal, but nonetheless they (particularly within the MAGA faction) have dimly come to understand that there may be vice within the body public...
  • Trump was just continuing his grandfather’s business.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles: The Israeli Strike on Iran, the JFK Assassination, and the 9/11 Attacks Ron Unz • The Unz Review •...
  • @Mr. Hack
    Hello Ron!

    I fully appreciate that you're a very busy guy with a lot on your plate, but I still wanted to make sure that you read a comment that I made to you within the last Open Thread, #275:

    Two days ago, I was able to watch a short clip on Youtube where RFK Jr, went on a rant pointing out problems with the popular diabetes medication metformin. Although not going into a lot of details, he said that when younger this medication caused him a lot of problems with his diabetes. He stated that one could tackle the problems of diabetes without using metformin. He made it very clear that the pharmaceutical giants would try and do everything to remove this video clip from the public domain. He was right, I’ve searched high and low and can no longer find this video clip. 🙁

    I don’t know how much the pharmaceutical companies made on the sale of metformin last year, but have come across data indicating that world wide, one trillion dollars in sales was made through the sale of the darling and controversial class of statin drugs. One trillion! Couldn’t be any corruption lurking any where near with these sums of money?…

    This is just the kind of a story that I would love to read written by the head researcher and excellent writer of this blog, Ron Unz. What do you say Ron, a story right up your alley, similar to the one you’ve printed about the evils of sugar and carbs.

     
    This is the type of story that I could see you bite your teeth into. I appreciate your investigative writing style, as I'm sure many others here do as well!

    Replies: @Mikel, @Philip Owen

    Most Type 2 diabetics last 4-5 years on Metformin before being shifted to insulin. I managed 18 years due to fairly good dietary control. I lost 30 kg over the period and was quite thin by the end and for a 73 year old muscular. After my cardiac arrest (lost 8.5kg of muscle duringmy coma) I was put on to insulin. I gained 17 kg in three months. I have checked that now but I am desperate to return to metformin. I am being refused because my kidneys are only just working (although this is an estimate). Long term use of metformin clogs the kidneys.

    While we are on the subject of diabetic drugs, beacuse I was well controlled I was one of the first people in Wales to be put on Ozempic (at diabetic doses). The effect on blood glucose compared to metformin was unnoticeable. I lost about 3kg which immediately cam on again. Probably all fluid. The side effects were awful I came off after 12 months. At the time, the permitted course of treatment was 14 months. They were still wary of long term effects.

    One of Putin’s preparations for war was to build a factory to make insulin. I met the Dane who managed the project. He was heartbroken to leave Russia. He was staying on at his own expense to look for a job. Medical supplies have not been sanctioned. Lessons were learnt from Iraq. The elite were provided for. Only the commoners suffered.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Philip Owen

    We're all pleased to hear that you're hanging in there. A lot of new information and ideas regarding insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes is coming to the fore every day. Many folks (millions) are managing these sorts of problems through diet and exercise. I think that these options are the least detrimental in the long run, and if they work (and for many they do), they should be fully explored first before any pharmaceutical drugs are used. I'm aware that for many, metformin can be a godsend, and usually carries the least amount of side effects. I wasn't aware of the deleterious effects that metformin can cause to the kidneys - thanks for the heads up.

  • @Torna atrás
    @Coconuts

    I've had the pleasure of meeting Anglo-Burmese people like Kate Beckinsale (subset of Anglo-Indian?), but never an Anglo-Indian.

    It's telling that Diana Hayden chose to marry an American from Nevada, rather than a member of her own community.

    But I guess, in a sense they're still "Anglo-Indian".

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQcz2dbuBKRYMB4xA56lrKnPGcCGx8LT5JfkzxyOuycU_JU5bMXqUXNh6Lo&s.jpg

    Replies: @Coconuts, @Philip Owen

    Two of my wife’s three Anglo Indian nieces married British men, well partnered in one case. The other has girlfriends.

    73 by the way. With all my own teeth.

    • Thanks: Torna atrás
    • Replies: @Torna atrás
    @Philip Owen

    You're still a spring chicken, keep commenting!

    We all miss you.

    You're the first commenter I remember, from when Karlin first started blogging on his old site.

    Along with AP.

    , @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    How do you think Russia's productive economy is doing outside of FIRE and extractive industries? Do you see any signs the post-2015 "reshoring" is reviving any Russian non-military industries?

  • @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Torna atrás

    American occupiers, critically, helped Japan take down a Russian-sponsored ninja operation


    The Red Purge (Japanese: レッドパージ, Hepburn: reddo pāji) was an anticommunist movement in occupied Japan from the late 1940s to the early 1950s.[1][2][3] Carried out by the Japanese government and private corporations with the aid and encouragement of the Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers (SCAP), the Red Purge saw tens of thousands of alleged members, supporters, or sympathizers of left-wing groups, especially those said to be affiliated with the Japanese Communist Party,
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Purge

    The Americans are too ashamed to mention this in their own history books, for that would be admitting that Patton's adage "we fought the wrong enemy" applies even further in East Asia.

    Russians are simply too mentally colonized to read about the Pacific War in anything other than the Western perspective.

    Replies: @Torna atrás, @Philip Owen, @Torna atrás

    That’s one with the 1947 copus in Eastern Europe and the deluge of armanents sent to the Maoists to defeat China.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my three most recent articles: American Pravda: McCarthyism, Part II – Political Payback Ron Unz • The Unz Review • May 5, 2025 •...
  • @S1
    [Please disregard the just previous post of mine which was posted inadvertently. :-) ]

    In regards to the aforementioned 1920 book Pax Americana there was a not dissimilar and related widely distributed and reviewed book published in the United States in 1853 called The New Rome. It provides an outline for US/UK world conquest in three steps:

    1) A raaprochment between America and Britain where together they form a practically unbeatable united front towards the world.

    2) The US/UK united front moves against Germany (identified as continental Europe's center of power) to conquer it, unleashing a future 'world's war' upon the Earth in the process.

    3) The final end of history war between the United States and Russia in which , according to this book, the US prevails.

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/7/mode/1up

    Russia, too, has a book published in 2006, called The Third Empire which also features an end of history war between the US and Russia, but in this scenario Russia prevails against the United States.

    https://archive.org/details/the-third-empire

    I see both of these books has possibly having been 'suggestions' placed in the American and Russian peoples' minds, of what was to be expected of them in the future, ie that the American and Russian people would someday fight each other in a global war, each having the expectation that they are to prevail against the other, and each expecting to obtain a glorious new Roman like empire for themselves.

    But what if these two books are in reality false prophecies, and that it is instead intended that the United States and Russia are to destroy each other in a global cataclysm?

    Though neither the American and Russian people are representative of the core Latin people of ancient Rome, nevertheless, the destruction of the spiritual heirs of Rome's Western and Eastern portions in the form of the United States and Russia in a global nuclear cataclysm in WWIII could be perceived in certain quarters as 'revenge' for 70 AD.

    'Never forgive! Never forget!'

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judaea_Capta_coinage

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/Titus_Augustus_Denarius.png

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    I tried to read the Third Empire in Russian before even the 2014 war. My Russian wasn’t really up to it. Thanks for the link. I’ll try again now. It was uncannily accurate. I suspect that it was essentially modelled on actual scenario planning. Yuriev was deputy speaker of the Duma and een without seeing the planning, he would have heard gossip about its contents.

    • Replies: @S1
    @Philip Owen


    I tried to read the Third Empire in Russian before even the 2014 war. My Russian wasn’t really up to it. Thanks for the link. I’ll try again now.
     
    Finding an English translation of the The Third Empire book on the net is difficult. And while The New Rome is free on line, and the book has been republished, few have ever heard that it even exist, so very few people have read it.

    It was uncannily accurate. I suspect that it was essentially modelled on actual scenario planning. Yuriev was deputy speaker of the Duma and een without seeing the planning, he would have heard gossip about its contents.
     
    Same with The New Rome in regards to it's uncanny accuracy. Books like these might make a person think that at least some major historical events are not quite as spontaneous as might first be presumed. :-)

    Replies: @Matra

  • @Beckow
    @Bashibuzuk


    ...read the comments under the video
     
    People don't fear nukes any more, it's too remote with a feeling of something from the past. They fear hot summers, getting fat, and cold viruses. So we may get the nukes...there are 3-4 potential places. First it would be local and on military targets, then it would follow on the rest of us.

    By the way, the Pripyat nature is blossoming, it's a wilderness paradise. It clearly pleases many in the West - their private dreams of getting rid of the troublesome Slavs by any means in practise. They wouldn't mind a gigantic Chernobyl if they could keep it in the east...

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen

    Hi folks.

    Nukes

    Atomic Bomb – massive radiation with many dangerous isotopes mostly gone in 48 hours. Lethal while it lasts.

    Power Station- weaker radiation, almost entirely iodine (8 day half life) with modest caesium and strontium both about 30 years). Bad for children. Old people hardly affected. They have their bones and teeth.

    I’m doing fine but stuff to do so I am not writing here. I’m trying to get into a gym for supervised cardiac work until I feel confident to do it on my own. I was put on insulin after the cardiac arrest and gained 17kg in 12 weeks earlier this year.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Philip Owen

    Hey, welcome back!!!


    Atomic Bomb – massive radiation with many dangerous isotopes mostly gone in 48 hours. Lethal while it lasts....Power Station: Old people hardly affected. They have their bones and teeth.
     
    The lethal while it lasts is a lot worse than anything else. I suspect there are many Anglos, Germans, Poles... who would not be unhappy if the troublesome Russkies were evaporated. If it means Ukies are also gone many would feel it price worth paying, a two-fer...There is no other rational explanation for Starmer-Merz&Co. Then again they could just be irrational...many old guys have no teeth.
    , @Torna atrás
    @Philip Owen

    I'm very happy to hear you're doing well Mr Owen.

    You're presence as one of the Original Commenters has always been appreciated!

    I have one question, feel free not to answer. Roughly how old are you? No need to be specific, late seventies, eighties?

    Forgive me if this is too personal of a question.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my three most recent articles, all dealing with various aspects of America's ongoing conflict with both China and Russia, with the titles being fairly...
  • @S1
    Within the Anglosphere, advanced preparations for WWIII are being closely modeled upon the events leading up to WWII, ie a purportedly ill prepared Britain and a Johnny come lately America, both up against a said to be well prepared militaristic foe, with Putin's Russia now in the place of Hitler's Germany.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/britain-failing-prepare-itself-war-201632069.html


    https://youtu.be/LPXBzc5Y7to?si=yvGVnjawHBXS3RBz


    https://youtu.be/XpSSqary570?si=D3cQlHAzWOawnXCJ


    “This is something that we now have to be ready to do without the US lead and it means gearing up to be ready for war in every respect,” he said.


    Britain is failing to prepare itself for war with Russia, top general warns

    Britain is not properly prepared to defend itself in a war with Russia and cannot rely on the United States and Nato, a retired senior general has warned.

    Writing in The Independent, Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as Nato’s deputy supreme allied commander in Europe from 2011 to 2014, said another global conflict will only be prevented if there is a “band of deterrent steel from the Baltic to the Black Sea" – something he said the UK may have to be prepared to help realise without the support of Washington.

    His dramatic intervention comes alongside warnings from former defence secretary Ben Wallace and Labour peer Admiral Lord West that a failure to prioritise defence would be a grave error for the prime minister.

    Lord West’s warning follows a foreboding speech by Nato general secretary Mark Rutte who said the West is not ready to deal with the threat of war from Russia, declaring it is “time to shift to a wartime mindset and turbocharge our defence production”.
     

    Cont.


    Mr Rutte said: “Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation, with Ukraine and with us,” adding: “We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years.”

    There is growing concern about the strength of Donald Trump’s commitment to Nato, following repeated threats to pull out of the alliance if member states do not spend more on defence. Sir Richard warned that Britain can make “no assumptions that Trump would honour Nato’s doctrine of collective defence”, adding: “If we are to deter a third world war, Europe must step up to the mark.”

    A number of Nato member states do not yet meet the 2 per cent of GDP threshold for defence spending. Meanwhile, there are also concerns over the failure of Keir Starmer to specify a timescale in relation to his pledge to increase UK spending to 2.5 per cent.

    Sir Richard said the West will “only achieve peace for ourselves, our children and grandchildren and prevent a third world war between Nato and Russia with a band of deterrent steel from the Baltic to the Black Sea”.

    “This is something that we now have to be ready to do without the US lead and it means gearing up to be ready for war in every respect,” he said.
     


    Sir Richard said the UK must demonstrate “moral courage and exemplary leadership” to “make the necessary sacrifices to preserve peace by deterring war”.

    “We have to fight a second cold war to avoid a third world war,” he warned. “If we fail to do this the costs, in terms of blood and treasure will be appalling.”

    So far, he said, the new government’s approach to defence is falling far short of what is required.

    “While the new UK government talks of defence being the first priority, notably it did not figure in the prime minister’s recent ‘top six’ priorities,” he said.

    Keir Starmer has been urged to prioritise defence in an increasingly unstable global landscape (AFP via Getty)
    Last month, Sir Keir unveiled six milestones to measure the government’s progress – but the targets did not include defence or security.
     


    Former defence secretary Ben Wallace told The Independent that the UK has become “overdependent on the US which has limited our choices and left us vulnerable”, calling for Britain to commit to spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence.

    “The world is sadly getting more insecure and more anxious. Technology has enabled enemies to compete in a way that was impossible to do in the past.

    “Now is the time to commit to 3 per cent GDP by 2030. For Starmer to not invest in our security would be a dereliction of duty”, he warned.

    Lord West of Spithead, a former security adviser to Gordon Brown and a retired admiral of the Royal Navy, said Sir Keir had made a “terrible political error” in not including defence in his six milestones, saying the decision was worrying and “beyond belief”.

    While he expressed doubt that Mr Trump would abandon Nato, he called for European nations to spend more on defence.

    “There is absolutely no doubt from anyone who knows anything about the military and about defence that our forces are underfunded.

    “I think the fact that defence wasn’t mentioned in that list is a political error, and it’s a terrible error, full stop. It is beyond belief, really. With the world as dangerous as it is, knowing how underfunded we are, that he’s not willing to mention that as one of the priorities – I find that very worrying”, he told The Independent.

    Lord West added: “I don’t believe that even Trump will just suddenly pull out of Nato. But should European nations be pulling more weight in defence terms? Yes, absolutely they should.”
     


    Colonel Tim Collins, a former army officer who gave a stirring eve-of-battle speech at the start of the Iraq War, expressed concern that Labour is not taking the defence of Britain seriously enough, warning that the UK is facing a situation similar to that of the mid-1930s in the lead-up to the Second World War.

    While he dismissed some of Mr Trump’s remarks about Nato as rhetoric, he admitted that the UK has “very little leverage over the United States”.

    Speaking about the new government’s commitment to defence, he said: “I don’t think it is taken particularly seriously by Labour. To the extent that they’re threatening to pull funding from the Tempest programme.”

    Withdrawing from the Tempest programme, he said, would be comparable to cancelling the Spitfire programme just before the Second World War.

    The Tempest project, part of the Global Combat Air Programme alongside Italy and Japan, is designed to replace the ageing Eurofighter Typhoons by the mid-2030s. But its budget was slashed by 10 per cent this year.
     


    Shadow armed forces minister Mark Francois warned that Russia will not be deterred by “empty platitudes from the chancellor and the Treasury”, and called for the UK to urgently increase defence spending.

    “During the 1980s, at the height of the Cold War, Mrs Thatcher’s government spent around 5 per cent of GDP on defence, which helped keep the peace in Europe until the Berlin Wall fell.

    “With Putin’s Russia now at war in Ukraine and threatening further expansion, for instance into Nato’s Baltic states, we urgently need to increase defence spending to deter the Russians again – which we won’t do with empty platitudes from the chancellor and HM Treasury”, he said.

    A government spokesperson said: “This government will always do what it takes to defend this country, with threats increasing, the world becoming more volatile and technology changing the nature of warfare.

    “That is why the Budget increased defence spending by £2.9bn for next year and we are committed to setting a path to 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence in spring. The Strategic Defence Review is working at pace to look at the threats we face and the capabilities we need to meet the challenges, threats and opportunities of the 21st century."

     

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Britain has wasted its funds on aircraft carriers when we need a few dozen frigates.

    There is not a lot wrong with the Typhoons. Italy is ordering 24 as new build.

    Storm shadows have proven abilty to beat S400s.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Philip Owen

    Philip it's nice to see you again, I hope you are recovering from your health problem.

    Replies: @S1

    , @S1
    @Philip Owen


    Britain has wasted its funds on aircraft carriers when we need a few dozen frigates.

    There is not a lot wrong with the Typhoons. Italy is ordering 24 as new build.

    Storm shadows have proven abilty to beat S400s.
     
    Well, armchair generals and their thoughts are a dime a dozen.

    As a wiser man once said:

    ‘It’s the older people that start the wars, but it’s the young people that have to fight in them and die.’

    I highly suggest that British folks, and more generally Anglosphere people, read the heartfelt letters in the book linked below of a large number and variety of British men and women WWII veterans, ie people who have had actual real life experience fighting a global war, and their thoughts about the British government and the last world war.

    To put it into a word, the common theme of the letters is ‘betrayal’.

    I can only imagine their message to the young people of the Anglosphere today in regards to an impending WWIII would be: ‘Don’t believe them!’ and ‘Don’t do it!’

    https://archive.org/details/the-unknown-warriors/mode/1up
  • To the Commandery of the Knights Hospitaller of Jerusalem, as is my custom, to celebrate the habits of my tribe, as they have done since 1211. The church itself is closed for repairs, including the tiled floor, which looked alright to me, but which apparently needs specialist attention to restore it to former glories. The...
  • Christmas has passed. Happy New Year.

    A Nativity for grwon ups.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my three latest pieces. The first discussed the astonishing behavior of Israel over the last few decades and especially recently, which might rank as...
  • DO NOT RESCUSITATE (DNR)

    I might not be around much longer. The explanation below is why. Some parts of this site are horrific but the Karlin threads have always remainined dignified.

    My medical misadventures continuted. My stroke was followed by massive heart attacks. The first time my heart stopped for 7 minutues, the 2nd time for 9 minutes. The doctors decided to give up. My status was moved to DNR. 90% die after this. The doctors did however leave the ventilator switched on. My children, their cousins and the older generation did not let me go. They read hymns I had sund in church choir at 8 years old, played our favourite songs from summer holidays in Pembrokeshire. I responded by squeezing hands. That was two weeks ago. I”m home. A litle weak but seem to have all my mental factulties. We are testing my physical ones as my strength recovers More later.

    • Thanks: Sher Singh
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Philip Owen

    Sorry to hear that. I wish you a recovery insofar as that's possible.

    , @sudden death
    @Philip Owen

    Wish all the best in achieving health recovery as much as possible in such difficult conditions!

    , @emil nikola richard
    @Philip Owen


    They read hymns I had sund in church choir at 8 years old, played our favourite songs from summer holidays in Pembrokeshire.
     
    I saw a show a couple weeks ago where a man pulled his daughter out of a coma by sitting there reading Great Expectations out loud. She might have come out totally on her own but there are some things we will never know.

    Well there are actually a lot of things we will never know.
    , @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Good luck with further recovery. Thank you for your comments here in the Karlin section.

    , @Beckow
    @Philip Owen

    I wish you the best and hope you fully recover, never give up.

    This other stuff is of no importance, but you helped with keeping us dignified and that's something.

    , @AP
    @Philip Owen

    You are a good man and I will pray for you. Wishing you a full recovery.

    , @Mikel
    @Philip Owen

    Hang in there man. Lots of people going through near death experiences that recovered unexpectedly and are still here with us long afterwards. Follow your doctors' advice religiously, which probably includes not taking any of us here seriously. But thanks for coming back and stay in touch. All the best.

    , @A123
    @Philip Owen

    Best wishes and prayers that you get better.

    PEACE 😇

    , @songbird
    @Philip Owen


    The first time my heart stopped for 7 minutues, the 2nd time for 9 minutes.
     
    Am impressed you are so cohesive. Probably unusual.

    Anyway, best wishes!
    , @Matra
    @Philip Owen

    Some parts of this site are horrific but the Karlin threads have always remainined dignified.

    As someone who doesn't always behave well here your situation certainly puts our petty arguments into perspective. Best wishes to you.

    , @Coconuts
    @Philip Owen

    Best wishes with your recovery Philip.

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Philip Owen

    Best wishes with your recovery.

    , @Barbarossa
    @Philip Owen

    All the greatest blessings to you and your family with whatever time you left, which I sincerely hope is longer than you expect. Thank you for letting us know.

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    @Philip Owen

    Congrats on surviving such hefty outages, keeping the faculties intact, and best wishes for your recovery. Had no idea you were poorly.

    I always appreciate and learn from your posts here.

    , @Dmitry
    @Philip Owen

    Philip good luck I will be wishing for your recovery.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my who most recent pieces, closely-related articles on the climate of censorship on YouTube and other important Internet platforms, and the strange exception to...
  • @John Johnson
    @Mikel

    As the US Secretary of State himself implied, it’s ridiculous to think that making the Russians place their air and munition bases further back will have any strategic effect

    Well then I disagree with the Secretary of State. It's actually possible for a US government official to be wrong.

    The Russian glide bomb has a 65km range and is one of their most effective weapons:
    https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/06/how-ukraine-can-defeat-russian-glide-bombs.html

    If you push their air bases back even 25% that's a massive increase in jet fuel that has to be used. It also gives the Ukrainians more time to prepare.

    You did much worse during Kiev’s aggression against Donbas. You not only supported a government bombing its own cities and killing scores of innocent civilians, you were also outraged at the idea of the Russians defending the victims of that aggression.

    Oh stop already, that isn't going to work in an open forum. It only works on pro-Putin websites where they censor dissenting views.

    We have gone over this a thousand times.

    I've asked every Putin defender here to cite the worst attack against Donbas civilians by the Ukrainian government.

    Most common response:

    (crickets)

    Feel free to break the pattern or just be another Putin defender that can't back his own bullshit.

    Replies: @Sean, @Philip Owen, @Mikel

    The location of the civilian dead divides 50/50 between Ukrainian and Russian territory up to 2022. Most of the civilian dead died during the Russian Northwind invasion. It was Russian territory post Northwind but Ukrainian territory when they were killed. The Russian 14,000 dead campaign (3500 civilians) started to obscure this atrocity.

  • @Mikel
    @AP


    There is no risk of nuclear war in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression
     
    Ah, OK. If the most unbiased person here promises me that, then there is no need to keep worrying. There is no amount of escalation by the West that may conceivably make the Kremlin retaliate with the only means they have to confront NATO. Besides, giving long-range missiles with satellite data to Russia's enemies so that they can attack Moscow is something that has been done so many times in the past. We know perfectly well what Moscow's reaction will be. No need to worry at all, thanks. I'll try to return the iodine pills and hand-crank radio that I bought to protect my family.

    The glide bombs have to be launched from planes without unlimited range.
     
    Exactly. Both sides are limited in how much harm they can cause to each other. Which is why both have adapted their tactics and the West has had no choice but to keep crossing one red line after the other. As the US Secretary of State himself implied, it's ridiculous to think that making the Russians place their air and munition bases further back will have any strategic effect. They will keep bombing Ukraine all the same, perhaps in an increased and less accurate way. Then Zelensky will beg for further escalations, as he has done from the very start. Tomahawks or similar cruise missiles look like the obvious next step. And if that is not enough either, what next?

    There is something disgusting about so-called “peace” advocates whose idea of peace is to deny defense to the victims of aggression.
     
    You did much worse during Kiev's aggression against Donbas. You not only supported a government bombing its own cities and killing scores of innocent civilians, you were also outraged at the idea of the Russians defending the victims of that aggression.

    Here I'm not defending anything different from what Reagan did. He never contemplated a military intervention to defend Poland from "Operation Soyuz-80" by the USSR and its allies or the coup that put down the Solidarnosc movement. He only applied economic sanctions. And of course he wasn't crazy enough to give long-range missiles with satellite data to the Afghan victims of the Soviet aggression to strike deep inside the USSR. The most lethal weapon he gave them was Stingers. We wouldn't even be discussing any of this here if there hadn't been several generations of Western leaders with cool enough heads to forge a realistic strategy for the nuclear era that is now totally being abandoned for no reason that anyone has been able to formulate cogently at all.

    PS- Re "disgusting", please stay civil and don't descend to where you often have in the past. I'm honestly annoyed by the fact that you demand so much from the rest of us, including that we abandon any concern for the consequences to our families of the policies you defend, while my relative is doing in Europe the job that we both know you could be doing. I don't really know how she's coping. They are professionals and they have team gatherings where they support each other but, as a father of a young boy, if I had to face the stuff she has described to me, I'd be seriously affected.

    Replies: @AP, @John Johnson

    As the US Secretary of State himself implied, it’s ridiculous to think that making the Russians place their air and munition bases further back will have any strategic effect

    Well then I disagree with the Secretary of State. It’s actually possible for a US government official to be wrong.

    The Russian glide bomb has a 65km range and is one of their most effective weapons:
    https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/06/how-ukraine-can-defeat-russian-glide-bombs.html

    If you push their air bases back even 25% that’s a massive increase in jet fuel that has to be used. It also gives the Ukrainians more time to prepare.

    You did much worse during Kiev’s aggression against Donbas. You not only supported a government bombing its own cities and killing scores of innocent civilians, you were also outraged at the idea of the Russians defending the victims of that aggression.

    Oh stop already, that isn’t going to work in an open forum. It only works on pro-Putin websites where they censor dissenting views.

    We have gone over this a thousand times.

    I’ve asked every Putin defender here to cite the worst attack against Donbas civilians by the Ukrainian government.

    Most common response:

    (crickets)

    Feel free to break the pattern or just be another Putin defender that can’t back his own bullshit.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Sean
    @John Johnson


    If you push their air bases back even 25% that’s a massive increase in jet fuel that has to be used. It also gives the Ukrainians more time to prepare
     
    No, although the UKRAINIANS thought that it has been explained to them (US surveillance and intel are omniscient) the aircraft with the glide bombs are coming from airfields too far away to be hit by ATACMS. So it will be back to blowing up supply dumps and generals.

    As the US Secretary of State himself implied, it’s ridiculous to think that making the Russians place their air and munition bases further back will have any strategic effect

    Well then I disagree with the Secretary of State
     
    The intel is America and the targeting data 100% is. Washington. The last thing Washington wants is to do anything that might result in Russia being trounced in Ukraine. The srikes with be kept to a level Russia can nore of less cope with.

    Were it to look like Russia is begining to actually lose then China will step up trade and aid to Russia. So although it seems that there are a lot of things America could do they are actually close to the limits of what can be done safely ' The economic and technological disengagement between Russia and the West would be permanent were Russia to be defeated in Ukraine. A victory for Zelensky would cost the West plenty; making Russia an enemy and driving it into the arms of China.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Philip Owen
    @John Johnson

    The location of the civilian dead divides 50/50 between Ukrainian and Russian territory up to 2022. Most of the civilian dead died during the Russian Northwind invasion. It was Russian territory post Northwind but Ukrainian territory when they were killed. The Russian 14,000 dead campaign (3500 civilians) started to obscure this atrocity.

    , @Mikel
    @John Johnson


    I’ve asked every Putin defender here to cite the worst attack against Donbas civilians by the Ukrainian government.

    Most common response:

    (crickets)

    Feel free to break the pattern or just be another Putin defender that can’t back his own bullshit.
     
    I don't know what the "worst attack" against Donbas civilians by the Ukraine government was. I remember some pretty horrible ones in Lugansk, Mariupol, Donetsk, Horlivka,... but I don't have enough information to know what the worst one was in the most violent months of 2014 and 2015. The Western media didn't inform about these attacks during the time or afterwards and the information that I was getting from Russian sources was not very reliable. It included obvious propaganda stuff.

    What I do know is that, once independent sources like HRW and, especially, the UN OHCHR published their reports, I was surprised at the scale of the atrocity. They could document the violent deaths of more than 3,000 non-combatants, most of them located in rebel-controlled territory at the time of their deaths, but they couldn't be sure that their list was exhaustive. So that is the minimum figure we can be reasonably certain about. I was born in a place plagued by decades of political violence so I have a good sense of how much violence it takes to kill so many innocent people and this clearly wasn't a string of isolated incidents where people had died as collateral damage. 3,000+ dead civilians, most of them in a few months, is a conscious and deliberate policy of using maximum force against populated areas with a remarkable disregard for loss of innocent life.

    Based on what we did see in the footage that appeared online at the start of the clashes and the location of most of the officially documented victims, we can say with a high degree of confidence that Ukraine killed thousands of its own civilians.

    Regardless of whether one person living thousands of miles away is capable of saying what the "worst attack" of this massacre was, Europe has not seen anything like this since 1945, outside of Yugoslavia (and Chechnya, if that counts as Europe). Are you really so retarded that you are unable to understand this simple fact or are you just pretending to have this unreal level of retardation? It's like asking someone if they are able to tell you what "the worst" Nazi atrocity was as a way of defending the idea that the Nazis didn't commit any atrocity.

    And more importantly, now that you can't deny that at least one person has had the huge patience to give a comprehensive answer to your moronic question, are you finally going to stop repeating it like a clinical half-wit?

    Replies: @John Johnson, @AP

  • @Torna atrás
    @A123

    Islam is, in theory, racially agnostic, with all believers being equal regardless of race or origin. Theory and practice don’t always align, of course. Malaysia is a great example of Islam being very tied into racial identity, and the Saudis casually treat people from poorer Islamic countries poorly, even if they are there as engineers rather than day laborers.

    Nevertheless, the implicit “non-white” racialization of Islam by leftists as in a tool against MAGA-hat wearers or guys with statues of Sulla on their Twitter profile tends not to resonate with actual, believing lay Muslims, whom affluent Globalists are unlikely to ever interact with on any non-trivial level. They are raised from childhood to believe that their religion represents the final, correct form of monotheism which will eventually be embraced by all mankind. That’s not compatible with “woke” theories on morality being intrinsically tied to race.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Malaysian Islamicization is only decades old. School girls never used to wear headscarves far less chadors.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the ongoing Israel/Gaza conflict and the second on China's rise and the resulting confrontation with the...
  • @Beckow
    @sudden death


    ...material lend lease shipments from USA to USSR started in 1941 winter
     
    "Started"? What does that mean? The shipments were minimal until late 1943 after Kursk defeat of Germans. This is very well documented - shipments of meaningful quantities started in late 1943 through the northern sea route and through Iran. Until then they amounted to very little.

    2nd and 3rd front? No kidding, why not invent 4th and 5th - how about those 6k British soldiers who fought in Egypt. Look numbers matter and the east front had for the duration of war 85 to 90% of German resources and slightly higher share of losses (check Encyclopedia Britannica for the precise numbers). So if 90% of Germans and their allies (most of Europe) died fighting the Russians why do you hallucinate about 'fronts' and a much smaller numbers of Anglos in the West mostly in 1943-5 when the war was already lost by Germany?

    UA people perfectly know they aren’t fighting for the NATO membership
     
    Yes, they are - without NATO membership there would be no war because all the other issues were solvable. Ukraine in NATO was not.

    Let me get the logic you present: so NATO was just pretending all along for 10 years when they each year reaffirmed that Ukraine was joining NATO? And Russians only pretended to believe it in order to be able to start a war? Nothing there, all just pretense and make-believe - do you really believe that or is it the way you cope with the disaster that NATO move into Ukraine has caused? Primarily to Ukies.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @AP, @sudden death

    The first convoy included 40 Hurricane fighters, with pilots and ground crew, sent to secure Murmansk. After conducting combat operations these aircraft were transferred to the Soviet Air force, once pilots and ground crew had been trained.

    These early supplies were timely. In the critical Battle of Moscow in December 1941, roughly half of the Russian tanks, and the majority of the heavier types, were British Matilda and Valentine models. Later, significant numbers of Churchill tanks were provided. These vehicles remained in service throughout the war. The strategic value of the supplies was reinforced by the potent symbolism of an old enemy becoming an ally against a mutual foe. However, the Soviets were careful to minimise the presence of British hardware in post-war publications.

    By December 1941 aircraft deliveries had reached 669 mostly Hurricane fighters.

    The Germans had destroyed most of the Soviet airforce and most tanks (the survivors scattered acros Belarus and Ukraine). British weapons were crucial between November 1941 and January 1942 to stop the Germans taking Moscow, the Soviet railway hub. Later the Soviets made most of the weapons and the Americans supplied most of the food, logistics equipment, non lethals, machine tools and metals but in 1941 when the Soviet Union was on a knife edge, it was British equipment and training. First of course we needed to win the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic in 1940 while the SU was suppling Germany.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Philip Owen

    The discussion is about US supplies, not British. It started with the impact Germany's declaration of war on US had on the war, US supplies didn't come in large quantities until late 1943. So they by definition couldn't be that important. By then Russia defeated Germany.

    I have no idea where your 'quote' comes from about British supplies - you didn't supply a reference. But it is at best only the British view - it even says so. Why should one believe your self-serving UK drivel? You guys lie a lot...

    UK sat on its hands for 3 years - 1941-44 - doing almost nothing while Russia defeated Germany (and most of Europe that was allied w Germany). Then you did a minor invasion of France and declared that 'won the war'...can there be a lie more dishonest?

  • @sudden death
    @Beckow


    For 2 1/2 years after Germany declared war on US almost nothing happened – minimal skirmishing in N Africa-Sicily. US was already fully supplying Britain and didn’t start supplies to Russia until late 1943
     
    Finally checked it up to be sure - material lend lease shipments from USA to USSR started in 1941 winter, not in 1943, and all that skirmishing during invasion of Italy was so "unimportant" that Hitler decided to stop developing 1943 summer Kursk offensive when he heard the news and ordered to transfer part of his troops back to Europe. So it was nothing, but 2nd european front in fact then, while 3rd front was opened year later in France.

    organization that says stuff just to say it
     
    You had written here thousands of posts claiming that it's all nothing but the lies from the NATO, but in this instance suddenly start believing everything they said;)

    On a more serious note, never it's been claimed some official timetable/date for joining, official invitation never was done and even official preparation process of MAP was not allowed due to veto of
    France/Germany, so it was exactly just declarative goal of an open possibility like EU membership goal for Turkey was.

    UA people perfectly know they aren't fighting for the NATO membership as it is defence from predatory attack and official traditional territorial expansionism with the de facto goal of stealing mineral resources along eradicating UA population, culture and language from those conquered places.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …material lend lease shipments from USA to USSR started in 1941 winter

    “Started”? What does that mean? The shipments were minimal until late 1943 after Kursk defeat of Germans. This is very well documented – shipments of meaningful quantities started in late 1943 through the northern sea route and through Iran. Until then they amounted to very little.

    2nd and 3rd front? No kidding, why not invent 4th and 5th – how about those 6k British soldiers who fought in Egypt. Look numbers matter and the east front had for the duration of war 85 to 90% of German resources and slightly higher share of losses (check Encyclopedia Britannica for the precise numbers). So if 90% of Germans and their allies (most of Europe) died fighting the Russians why do you hallucinate about ‘fronts’ and a much smaller numbers of Anglos in the West mostly in 1943-5 when the war was already lost by Germany?

    UA people perfectly know they aren’t fighting for the NATO membership

    Yes, they are – without NATO membership there would be no war because all the other issues were solvable. Ukraine in NATO was not.

    Let me get the logic you present: so NATO was just pretending all along for 10 years when they each year reaffirmed that Ukraine was joining NATO? And Russians only pretended to believe it in order to be able to start a war? Nothing there, all just pretense and make-believe – do you really believe that or is it the way you cope with the disaster that NATO move into Ukraine has caused? Primarily to Ukies.

    • Disagree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Beckow


    The first convoy included 40 Hurricane fighters, with pilots and ground crew, sent to secure Murmansk. After conducting combat operations these aircraft were transferred to the Soviet Air force, once pilots and ground crew had been trained.

    These early supplies were timely. In the critical Battle of Moscow in December 1941, roughly half of the Russian tanks, and the majority of the heavier types, were British Matilda and Valentine models. Later, significant numbers of Churchill tanks were provided. These vehicles remained in service throughout the war. The strategic value of the supplies was reinforced by the potent symbolism of an old enemy becoming an ally against a mutual foe. However, the Soviets were careful to minimise the presence of British hardware in post-war publications.
     
    By December 1941 aircraft deliveries had reached 669 mostly Hurricane fighters.

    The Germans had destroyed most of the Soviet airforce and most tanks (the survivors scattered acros Belarus and Ukraine). British weapons were crucial between November 1941 and January 1942 to stop the Germans taking Moscow, the Soviet railway hub. Later the Soviets made most of the weapons and the Americans supplied most of the food, logistics equipment, non lethals, machine tools and metals but in 1941 when the Soviet Union was on a knife edge, it was British equipment and training. First of course we needed to win the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic in 1940 while the SU was suppling Germany.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @AP
    @Beckow


    material lend lease shipments from USA to USSR started in 1941 winter

    “Started”? What does that mean? The shipments were minimal until late 1943
     
    Back to lying as usual.

    Or maybe you are just regurgitating what your Socialist teachers taught you, and as expected given your midwit capabilities, are capable of having learned your lessons well but of of nothing else.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease#U.S._deliveries_to_the_Soviet_Union

    While the amount delivered in 1941 was small (the Soviets did stop the Germans in Moscow mostly on their own), in 1942 the USSR received about 2.5 million tons in aid. This was certainly not "minimal."

    Here is what the Russians themselves wrote:

    https://www.rbth.com/history/335471-how-lend-lease-helped-ussr

    By July 1942, the imported tanks in the Red Army accounted for 16 percent (2,200 out of 13,500).

    How would the Red Army have done in 1942 with 16% fewer tanks?

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @sudden death
    @Beckow


    meaningful quantities started in late 1943 through the northern sea route and through Iran
     
    What an amazing accidental coincidence - as soon as lend-lease picked up the full steam USSR started to advance at the speeds not seen before in the war when shipments were not large yet;) Of course not some coincidence when you know that railway locomotives and transport trucks used in USSR (i.e. whole war logistics) were overwhelmingly made in USA.

    1943 mid-October frontline after defeat of Nazis, according to Beckow when silly Soviets wasted millions of lives for the rest half of the war after victory which has been alredy achieved at that point:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5b/1943-10-15GerWW2BattlefrontAtlas.jpg


    pretense and make-believe
     
    ...are the neverending desperate attemps to masquarade into and sell the pretext of UA in NATO as the main cause of the war from you side - it's like seriously arguing that Sudetenland was the main cause for Nazi capture of Prague;)

    Replies: @Beckow

  • @Beckow
    @sudden death


    ...some sobriety could be expected without the need to take on another war with super huge country directly
     
    What are you talking about? For 2 1/2 years after Germany declared war on US almost nothing happened - minimal skirmishing in N Africa-Sicily. US was already fully supplying Britain and didn't start supplies to Russia until late 1943 - 2 years later. By then the war was over and Germany was basically defeated.

    Germany's fatal strategic error was attacking Russia. But then the war on Russia and Slavs in general was the main purpose of Nazism - lebensraum was not in France or Belgium, it was in the east. Hitler didn't really have much of a choice, did he?


    NATO in UA goal was just as declarative and had the same perspective as EU membership eternal goal for Turkey
     
    A good one...:) So NATO is a clown organization that says stuff just to say it? Who knew? And we thought that an organization that has waged 3 or 4 aggressive wars in the last generation was run by serious people. Never mind - we see it was all a joke...I am sure the dead Ukies can't stop laughing...

    Replies: @sudden death

    For 2 1/2 years after Germany declared war on US almost nothing happened – minimal skirmishing in N Africa-Sicily. US was already fully supplying Britain and didn’t start supplies to Russia until late 1943

    Finally checked it up to be sure – material lend lease shipments from USA to USSR started in 1941 winter, not in 1943, and all that skirmishing during invasion of Italy was so “unimportant” that Hitler decided to stop developing 1943 summer Kursk offensive when he heard the news and ordered to transfer part of his troops back to Europe. So it was nothing, but 2nd european front in fact then, while 3rd front was opened year later in France.

    organization that says stuff just to say it

    You had written here thousands of posts claiming that it’s all nothing but the lies from the NATO, but in this instance suddenly start believing everything they said;)

    On a more serious note, never it’s been claimed some official timetable/date for joining, official invitation never was done and even official preparation process of MAP was not allowed due to veto of
    France/Germany, so it was exactly just declarative goal of an open possibility like EU membership goal for Turkey was.

    UA people perfectly know they aren’t fighting for the NATO membership as it is defence from predatory attack and official traditional territorial expansionism with the de facto goal of stealing mineral resources along eradicating UA population, culture and language from those conquered places.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @sudden death


    ...material lend lease shipments from USA to USSR started in 1941 winter
     
    "Started"? What does that mean? The shipments were minimal until late 1943 after Kursk defeat of Germans. This is very well documented - shipments of meaningful quantities started in late 1943 through the northern sea route and through Iran. Until then they amounted to very little.

    2nd and 3rd front? No kidding, why not invent 4th and 5th - how about those 6k British soldiers who fought in Egypt. Look numbers matter and the east front had for the duration of war 85 to 90% of German resources and slightly higher share of losses (check Encyclopedia Britannica for the precise numbers). So if 90% of Germans and their allies (most of Europe) died fighting the Russians why do you hallucinate about 'fronts' and a much smaller numbers of Anglos in the West mostly in 1943-5 when the war was already lost by Germany?

    UA people perfectly know they aren’t fighting for the NATO membership
     
    Yes, they are - without NATO membership there would be no war because all the other issues were solvable. Ukraine in NATO was not.

    Let me get the logic you present: so NATO was just pretending all along for 10 years when they each year reaffirmed that Ukraine was joining NATO? And Russians only pretended to believe it in order to be able to start a war? Nothing there, all just pretense and make-believe - do you really believe that or is it the way you cope with the disaster that NATO move into Ukraine has caused? Primarily to Ukies.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @AP, @sudden death

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my who most recent pieces, closely-related articles on the climate of censorship on YouTube and other important Internet platforms, and the strange exception to...
  • @Torna atrás
    @A123

    You haven't done it properly, I can still see your comment.

    The Riyadh-Tehran-Ankara triad

    Iran made known its interest to join BRICS even before Saudi Arabia. According to Persian Gulf diplomatic sources. Turkey will soon follow, certainly on BRICS and possibly the SCO, where Ankara currently carries the status of extremely interested observer.

    Now imagine this triad – Riyadh, Tehran, Ankara – closely joined with Russia, India, China (the actual core of the BRICS), and eventually in the SCO, where Iran is as yet the only West Asian nation to be inducted as a full member.

    The strategic blow to the Globalist will go off the charts. The discussions leading to BRICS+ are focusing on the challenging path towards a commodity-backed global currency capable of bypassing Globalist primacy.

    Several interconnected steps point towards increasing symbiosis between BRICS+ and SCO.

    I accept your surrender 😇

    As long as you keep reading my comments like you do with Mr. Hacks.

    Deal?

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Turkey and Iran are as likely to cooperate as India and China. They are there to keep an eye on each other. Saudi hangs around to protect OPEC.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Philip Owen

    Cooperation on one issue does not mean that differences do not exist. For example: (1)


    Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Thursday rebuffed efforts by China to bully Malaysia away from oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea. Anwar’s government is investigating a leaked Chinese diplomatic note that accused Malaysia of violating Chinese sovereignty by working near the oil-rich Luconia Shoals.

    “Of course, we will have to operate in our waters and secure economic advantage, including drilling for oil, in our territory,” Anwar said during an official trip to Russia.
     
    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2024/09/05/malaysia-resists-chinas-bullying-to-continue-oil-and-gas-exploration-in-south-china-sea/

    Replies: @Torna atrás, @Torna atrás

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the ongoing Israel/Gaza conflict and the second on China's rise and the resulting confrontation with the...
  • @songbird
    @A123


    I do not think testing is the issue. The flaw is in their current culture, or lack thereof.
     
    Well, Norway is a small country. Their direct scale is limited.

    It is not unreasonable for them to organize some subsidy to promote culture in film or video games. But there is only a social logic to it, if it helps the bioculture. This point would prevent them from funding multicult projects starring blacks. Ideally, it would also lead to natalism being promoted.

    The language itself would not be difficult to get right, but I suppose the words matter little compared to how the bureaucracy is actually staffed.

    Replies: @LatW

    Want some authentic Norwegian culture, dear?

    Please. But be careful, the Lord of the Nazgul might get jealous.

    [MORE]

    Far above the ravengate
    The spread wings of Blashyrkh await,
    Above the roaring depths
    Sits the oath of frost
    On the elder raventhrone
    Older mountains sleeping in my sight
    By chilling woods I stand
    A grimly sound of naked winds
    Is all that shall ever be heard from here
    ohhhh Blashyrkh
    Cometh the rightful kings of highest halls
    Cry of tavens lurk the realm
    Eternally through the noctambulant grimness
    Demons stride at the gates of Blashyrkh…
    Blashyrkh… mighty ravendark…

    (written probably between the age of 17 -22)

    • Thanks: songbird, Philip Owen
  • @Torna atrás
    @A123

    Right now, as we all know, Globalist ships are being forced to travel around Africa rather than through the Suez Canal. Anyone who really understands the situation knows that the military options will not work, at least on any reasonable time horizon. The trip around Africa adds around 40% on to the journey time.

    Now, here's why this isn't just a question of having to tolerate higher costs. We know that the Houthis are letting Russian tankers through. What this signals is that it is only Globalist ships that are being targeted. This means that Globalist shipping now has an enormous cost premium relative to ships from the BRICS+. This in turn means that, as time goes on, Globalist shipping becomes a dud from a pure business point-of-view.

    We have seen something similiar with BRICS airlines undercutting Globalist carriers for certain trips as they have access to Russian airspace. But of course shipping is much more important than shaving some flight time off for a commercial carrier. If the Globalist shipping industry is rendered structurally uncompetitive then the BRICS countries will take over shipping. Obviously this is something that Globalist simply cannot tolerate.

    Replies: @A123, @Philip Owen

    The Chinese are taking the biggest hit from the Yemeni blockade. The Gulf Arabs and thier Indian refiners feel the pain too. The US will be very happy to sell more fracked oil at higher prices. Europe will be bearing the costs. I guess the UK may reconsider the decision to open a group of small fields found in North Sea.

    • Agree: A123
  • Tucker Carlson has been stirring the Churchill pot. Here’s another take. It might run better with Steve Sailer but he hasn’t flagged it yet.

    Churchill might have been too Germanophobe. In May 1940 when he was appointed, Britain was on the ropes. By May 1941 things were different.

    The UK had

    won the Battle of Britain
    won the Battle of the Atlantic (at least part 1. The Bismark was just sunk).
    the UK was outproducing Germany without counting Canadian & Indian production
    the UK mostly had matching or better technology (DE C&C for tanks was outstanding though)
    the Empire was starting to come together in terms of practical support
    had an A bomb project due to deliver in 1947. DE was on the wrong track.

    In May 1941 the SU was still apparently a worse violator of human rights than Germany. Persecution of the Jews was well known but not their extermination. Mein Kampf was a book written by an angry prisonerin reaction to the atrocities of the Civil War following the breakdown of the Russian Empire – not to be taken seriously? Both parties were treacherous.

    Churchill had a practical and moral case to let Germany and the SU destroy each other and mop up afterwards. He could have had a ceasefire with Germany in exchange for a promise to stay away from the Atlantic and the Channel and suspend ship building. Germany would be allowed to buy oil from Venuzuela. Against this, was the apparent close cooperation between the Soviet Union and Germany. Germany could buy not only everything the SU had to offer but smuggled Asian rubber too. Was Churchill too rash in supporting the Soviet Union in June 1941? A war without the US and Japan might have left his beloved Empire intact (although India would have been independent anyway the Depression just slowed it). Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union breaking each other would have created many opportunities for peaceful reconstruction of a prosperous Europe. The US would not be around.

    Was Churchill too Germanophobic to do this? Was the risk of Germany winning in a one on one duel with the SU too high? Would the SU have offered terms to Germany and both turned back on the British Empire together? They nearly did. Were Churchill and Roosevelt closest socialists? No one much regretted the Tsar’s passing.

  • @Dmitry
    @Beckow


    US is slightly better off than Europe

     

    There are countries in Europe with higher median wealth than the USA.

    The USA has a higher mean wealth than even Norway, but the distribution is relatively more unequal there, so most Americans have less wealth than even most British, French and Dutch people.

    https://i.imgur.com/DvTH0gg.jpeg


    That is not the case in Russia – they track everyone and fewer people reside there permanently than the official numbers
     
    In Russia, they don't track or know. They don't even seem to know who attains citizenship for other countries, let alone residency.

    I haven't lived in Russia for so many years, I even forget the country exists most of time. I don't do anything in Russia except occasional visiting like vacations inside Russia, but the government don't even seem to think I've been on a vacation outside Russia.

    Replies: @AP, @Philip Owen

    Wealth is tricky. A lot depends on house prices. Income is a better guide to living standards.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Philip Owen

    Also teleological: a retiree Briton can in many cases retire in luxury to a sunnier but poorer area. Even if all they had during the working life was a three bedroom beefnsemi in the exurbs of London.

    , @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    Wealth is tricky.
     
    No, it's not. It's a very objective thing. You have it or you don't have it. And when you have it, you know you do.

    Most people's main asset is their residence so yes, people who own their homes are usually richer than those who rent or have a low equity. Their net worth is higher. As long as real estate is calculated at convertible market prices, people in countries with high rates of home ownership are on average richer than those with low rates. Trump is obviously not less rich because most of his wealth comes from real estate.

    You're probably right that income has a stronger correlation with living standards but wealth per person is a useful metric too. In fact, I think most people would prefer to increase their wealth (eg become owners of their homes or win the lottery) rather than their income (eg get a salary raise). Wealth can be converted into income after all. Even illiquid assets like residences can be sold and converted into an investment portfolio, which is how some people retire.

    Replies: @AP

  • @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    Get real. I was obviously saying that is a best case for Russia. If it avoids nuclear war, it might be a best case for everyone.

    The best case for the US would be to drop this entire dangerous, illegal project like a hot potato and tell Ukraine to make nice with Russia. I don't think Russia is likely to accept that at face value, but it is worth a try.

    Most of you Ukie backers are intentionally blinding yourselves to the risk of WW3 and nuclear conflict. You are like bloodthirsty little children playing a game or watching Saturday morning cartoons. Grow up, this is serious adult business. The West intentionally created this conflict to break Russia. The Ukrainians are willing pawns in a proxy war started by the West. There is a risk of nuclear war from both sides. If the puppet masters behind this thing run out of ideas, they might do something really stupid with nuclear weapons. If the Russians are cornered they might resort to nuclear weapons. The best case for humanity is for the West to drop this project today and rat out all of their disposable co-conspirators to Moscow. The whole thing is very ugly.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @John Johnson, @Philip Owen

    The best case for the US would be to drop this entire dangerous, illegal project like a hot potato and tell Ukraine to make nice with Russia.

    What does that mean exactly? Ask nicely if they can have their land back?

    Most of you Ukie backers are intentionally blinding yourselves to the risk of WW3 and nuclear conflict. You are like bloodthirsty little children playing a game or watching Saturday morning cartoons.

    Putin could de-escalate and return to his borders. That would save the most lives and reduce the risk of nuclear war.

    Grow up, this is serious adult business.

    It isn’t a business. Putin is an ego driven dwarf who launched this war largely on feels. He is on record stating that he could take Kiev in 2 weeks.

    A business minded person would have given Ukraine an ultimatum over NATO instead of trying to take the entire country through a decapitation strike.

    If Putin had followed my plan of offering citizenship to Donbas ethnic Russians then hundreds of thousands of people would be alive and Russia wouldn’t be viewed as having a third world military that is still fighting an infantry that is 1/8 their size.

    So don’t lecture me on foolish ideas when I was against this stupid war from the beginning while you continue to defend what was supposed to be a 2.5 week operation. The Russian military has been humiliated and the Russian people are back to being viewed as Europe’s losers.

    If the puppet masters behind this thing run out of ideas, they might do something really stupid with nuclear weapons.

    Why would they risk blowing up the planet instead of sending troops and conventional weapons?

    You’re being hysterical and not making sense.

    NATO has at least 2000 conventional cruise missiles that could be used against Russia. This is not a war against NATO. Ukraine is fighting with NATO donated weapons and most are second/third gen. Putin even said that they wouldn’t be able to defeat NATO with conventional weapons.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    Russia doesn't want anything Ukraine has except her role as a somewhat neutral buffer zone. If Ukraine cuts military and espionage ties with the West Russia might leave them alone after a fashion. Russia doesn't want the land, they want NATO and NeoNazi trouble out of Ukraine since it is only there to cause serious problems for Russia.

    This entire Western project in Ukraine is a pressure campaign against Russia. If Russia backs up there is every reason to believe the West will keep pushing at the border. They will ratchet up regime change efforts in Belarus, Georgia and Kazakhstan. The pattern has already been established. The West has dropped and scoffed at important treaties so there is no reason for Russia to trust any agreements involving the West. That means Ukraine must either cut geopolitical ties with the West or Russia will drive them out.

    The West gradually made this war inevitable, starting three decades ago. You are starting the clock in 2022. That is ridiculous.

    The West would use a nuke against Russia in a way that responsibility was unclear so that retribution would be delayed and possibly bluffed away. On the other hand, maybe in the chaos a dumb Ukie agent on the Belgorod will accidentally launch a Poseidon torpedo at New York. I've heard Brooklyn needs a fresh start anyway.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Philip Owen

  • @Torna atrás
    @A123

    There will be no new BRICS joint currency for trade like some theorized. Everyone will trade in their local currencies and settle excess balances in gold instead (now the entire gold market is shifting East and rising btw).

    Thanks to the rise of CBDCs, this won't be much difference in terms of efficiency than the current USD system over time - you won't need a global trade currency like that anymore.

    Also, thanks to the rise of digital currencies, it will be much easier to trade and bypass the G7 financial architecture and surveillance, the possibility of sanctions.

    Previously it was much harder and costlier to build a financial architecture and ecosystems needed to trade in some currency outside of the USD, but now thanks to CBDCs it will be much easier.

    Less reliance on intermediaries obviously means greater transaction speed, and you don't need to use US banks to convert everything into dollars in between so no geopolitical risk there as well.

    What I think that the BRICS is doing, not creating a new trade currency (that's a smoking gun), but exploring technical aspects of this new CBDC blockchain system.

    Also, if you follow gold markets, and some dates, it is obvious that they coordinated the current re-emergence of physical gold as a neutral reserve asset as well. Those are the main plays in terms of de-dollarization.

    This is similar to the China-led mBridge project, with digital yuan, that Saudi Arabia joined in the BIS recently. It is called the BRICS Bridge multisided payment platform.

    A bunch of other smaller local projects as well in the UAE and elsewhere, but this is still in its beginning stages. I think that this will eventually become the main global financial model going forward.

    That's the thing, you just need to narrow the spread of difficulty of trading in the USD vs not trading it and many would jump ship over time, no matter if the G7 also bets fully on digital currencies (although China is leading currently in this field).

    You just need to blunt their advantage in terms of existing traditional banking ecosystems. They are a fully financially dominated economy after all, and have a huge tradition of global dollar use.

    However, with the rise of pretty innovative and breakthrough technology now, those kinds of advantages won't matter, as with fewer banking employees, you could still do great local, secure, cross-border trading, thanks to local CBDCs of countries, of the same or even better quality.

    Replies: @A123, @Philip Owen

    There are few trusted depositaries of gold in the world. Fort Knox, the Bank of England, Bank de France and a few others. Germany has only recently repatriated some of its gold. Most contenders cannot guarantee that the gold is actually there and ownership and transfers of ownership are registered securely. There is a reason gold from Mali is in France.

  • @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    I think Russia's general response to the Western provocations in Ukraine was shaped by the situation more than it was shaped by some guy named Putin. It still seems that he is holding out for a less traumatic outcome for Ukraine. I assume there are a great many Russian military hawks who want this thing to go harder faster.

    You pretend to be stung and shocked (as in: 'shocked I tell you, shocked') by public statements by the Russian government which turned out not to be exactly correct in a war context that started in 2014. There is no way you are that naive, so please find something more substantial to discuss.

    Both NATO and Ukraine were obviously on a course to add Ukraine to the anti-Russia military alliance. This was stated publicly by all involved many times and is completely consistent with the very aggressive NATO expansion. It was also completely predictable that Russia would use force of arms to prevent it. You know this, so stop playing stupid. The exact timetable is not so important because rules and laws can always be amended to make things happen, even if these things are ostensibly against the rules.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    The original excuse for war was nothing to do with NATO. It was the EU.

    When Russia laughed at Yanukovich for asking for better terms for the gas deal (after all they had bought and paid for him), Y turned to the EU, if only as leverage. A reluctant EU and an uncomitted Ukraine put together an Agreement. Russian nationalists at the Dontskoy monastry and elsewhere saw this coming and prepared for the invasion of Ukraine by infiltration as described in the novelised scenario plan written by Mikhail Yuriev in 2006, The Third Empire. They asked me for 30,000 pairs of boots. The plan called for an atrocity in Ky’iv to destablise the government.

    The Russian government responded to the announcement of the details of the proposed EU Agreement with a customs blockade, which is generally regarded as an act of war (UN support for sanctions has weakened that) on 12 August 2013. Protests and counterprotests led to the Maidan and an atrocity tailor made for The Third Empire. Malofeev sent in Girkin and Borodai initially expecting an uprising of support. This didn’t materialise until pay reached $300 a month. Other nationalist groups joined in. Someone paid 2000 Cossacks for example. By the time the Lugansk Mafia was on the payroll the GRU/FSB seems to have been involved.

    Nothing to do with NATO.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    I believe the USA voiding the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty in 2002 is the most essential step in creating the now terrible relationship between Russia and the West. I believe the NATO expansion in 1999 was the most iconic step, in the sense that at that point many people recognized the Cold War was still on, now between the West and Russia. The West had the upper hand and was pressing the long-standing Cold War campaign against Russia on myriad fronts, large and small.

    One important context for dropping the ABM treaty is that many technocrats in the USA believed that the Reagan-era "Star Wars" antiballistic missile program was an essential cause of the collapse of the USSR. I don't agree with this perspective, but it was widely held and is probably still used as a justification for policy. At the time, these people hated the Soviets for being "Godless Communists." After 1991, they seamlessly transmogrified their hate, which is now directed against the "Nasty Russians" (not communist, less godless than the West, etc.).

    Recognizing the West had already made it clear the war was still on by 1999 gives context to all of the maneuvering since then on all sides. Russia was greatly weakened by the breakup of the USSR, but kept enough nuclear weapons to hold the West militarily at bay, at least partially. Russia benefited from the linkages with the world economy, but struggled with all of the external meddling and internal corruption which have marked the past 35 years.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @S1
    @Philip Owen


    Russian nationalists at the Dontskoy monastry and elsewhere saw this coming and prepared for the invasion of Ukraine by infiltration as described in the novelised scenario plan written by Mikhail Yuriev in 2006, The Third Empire.
     
    People in Anglosphere countries would be wise to 'first take the beam out of their own eyes'..

    The United States has it's own now effectively blacklisted 'Third Empire' like book called 'The New Rome' which at the time of it's publication in 1853 was widely distributed and reviewed.

    However, unlike the 'novelised' Russian book, the 'New Rome' book presents it's blueprint for US/UK global conquest [ie (1) future rapprochement between America and Britain (2) the newly formed future US/UK united front conquers Germany, continental Europe's center of power, in the process unleashing a 'world's war' upon the Earth (3) the end of history war between the United States and Russia, where according to this book the US prevails] as a declaration of fact in it's opening pages before the events have even occurred. (See excerpt and link below.)

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/109/mode/1up

    'Thus the lines are drawn. The choirs are marshalled on each wing of the world's stage, Russia leading the one, the United States the other. Yet the world is too small for both, and the contest must end in the downfall of the one and the victory of the other.'

    All the ingredients are there for a hubristic Anglosphere empire in an impending WWIII to experience what the Russian Empire experienced in WWI, and which is ably described in the book linked below, 'Imperial Apocalypse'...ie Communist subversion of their war effort culminating in a Communist revolution, defeat in a world war, economic collapse, plague, and a Russian style 'civil war', really an anti-identity war, raging across the whole of the Anglosphere, with 'warlord' led ethnic/political armies characterized by their committing of mass executions, sometimes fighting each other but most fighting the Communists, it having been rigged beforehand that the latter [Communists] will win.

    It may now sound far fetched, but there's a certain logic in that where this manufactured Capitalist vs Communist dialectic began with the 1776 American Capitalist revolution, some two hundred plus years later things would go full circle and it would conclude in an American Communist revolution.

    https://academic.oup.com/book/12205?login=false

    Will it be American boys and their officers in WWIII fighting in trenches and on battlefields located not far away from those Russian boys and their officers were once fighting in in WWI?


    https://youtu.be/k7B-nlmdX0g?si=KQhBUqfl78o4KZWo


    https://youtu.be/P4kQvkvGi9M?si=1CGa9TUXee8aPQwj


    And will the British royal family experience the same terrible fate that Czar Nicholas and his family experienced in 1918?

    https://youtu.be/e3rUcRyQ32I?si=Avmo86pDGPkGFK2s

  • @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    Get real. I was obviously saying that is a best case for Russia. If it avoids nuclear war, it might be a best case for everyone.

    The best case for the US would be to drop this entire dangerous, illegal project like a hot potato and tell Ukraine to make nice with Russia. I don't think Russia is likely to accept that at face value, but it is worth a try.

    Most of you Ukie backers are intentionally blinding yourselves to the risk of WW3 and nuclear conflict. You are like bloodthirsty little children playing a game or watching Saturday morning cartoons. Grow up, this is serious adult business. The West intentionally created this conflict to break Russia. The Ukrainians are willing pawns in a proxy war started by the West. There is a risk of nuclear war from both sides. If the puppet masters behind this thing run out of ideas, they might do something really stupid with nuclear weapons. If the Russians are cornered they might resort to nuclear weapons. The best case for humanity is for the West to drop this project today and rat out all of their disposable co-conspirators to Moscow. The whole thing is very ugly.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @John Johnson, @Philip Owen

    Putin’s declaration of war was in Munich in 2007. Even in 2004 he told Bush that Ukraine wasn’t a real country. Like Hitler before him, he wants to restore his native Empire to its natural borders. These are of course the borders at the Empire’s natural extent. The Sudetenland was Chamberlain’s trip wire for Hitler. Bush ignored Georgia and Obama ignored 2014.The least that could have been done was rearm. Britian did train and (lightly) arm the Ukrainians. The US did nothing. Putin’s remarks about NATO are fabrications for domestic consumption.

    • LOL: Mikhail
  • @YetAnotherAnon
    @QCIC

    My understanding is that the US evacuated the Kiev embassy when it all started, they expected it all to go pearshaped. Maybe if Russia had gone in harder - their "full scale invasion" was what - 180k against probably 4x ?

    Still, Russia seems to make a habit of losing at first and winning at last.

    Replies: @AP, @QCIC

    It seems Russia did not have the resources to go in harder. Over-committing could have been worse than the costly feint. It still looks like they went in to break up a NATO plan and buy time. The quick repatriation of Crimea in 2014 seems like a similar move. The Russians moved aggressively for a short time and then very slowly for a long time after the initial action. Mariupol seems like the most important Russian victory of the SMO so far. Full details are still unknown, but Azovstal appeared to be a NATO stronghold very close to the Russian border.

    • LOL: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @QCIC


    Ukies failed the Darwin test. It’s that simple – the evolution requires a basic self-preservation instinct.
     
    You've really got things ass backwards here, comrade. When any organism (Ukraine) is attacked by outside forces (Russia), it tries to fend these malignant forces away from itself in order to survive. Don't tell me you can't understand something so basic and simple?

    Replies: @QCIC

  • @A123
    @Torna atrás

    That was incredibly long winded and insubstantial. You did not answer the question:

    What tangible gains does a nation obtain when they become a BRICS member?

    You are proving me correct. However, for some reason you do not see it. BRICS is much like G7 or G20. It does not actually *do* anything. All three are talking shops and PR exercises. None have any tangible power or enforceable obligations.

    You have yet to list a single concrete & enforceable rule that applies when a nation joins BRICS. It is not a trade grouping. BRICS has no explicit obligations about market access, tariffs, currencies, cross border banking, business dispute resolution, etc.

    To the extent there has been a change of economic relations it is bilateral (not BRICS) between Iran and China. And, they had a solid arrangement long before Iran joined BRICS.

    Here is a suggestion that might help -- Try answering the question without becoming highly emotional over indigenous Palestinian Jews living in the Jewish homeland of Judea. There is no reason to believe that Israel is instrumental to BRICS rulemaking.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Torna atrás, @Philip Owen

    BRICS+ has one institution, a Development Bank with very small funding proided by China. It is run by Brits and has no projects. The Commonwealth DB (India, South Africe, Hong Kong/China, World Bank and even China’s own BRI are ahead in the queue for good quality projects.

    The alternative to SWIFt wasn’t popular inside Russia when first introduced even though it was mostly a direct copy. Private banks stayed with SWIFT. Indeed Russia took its turn to chair SWIFT. There is not yet a specific institiutional framework for it. China still wants its CIPS system to be the core.

    China has the strength to support the Yuan/RMB as a trading currency. It was accepted into the club a few years ago. It is winning a fight with the Yen for 4th place. However, becoming a reserve currency would require a degree of openess and loss of control that an authoritarian regime would be unlikely to concede.

    Other than China, no BRICS member has the strength to push any of Putin’s projects. They are Putin’s international political popularity projects not China’s so the will to do it will be weak. Let Russia overpromise and underdeliver. This will suit China and India.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Philip Owen


    BRICS+ has one institution, a Development Bank with very small funding proided by China. It is run by Brits and has no projects
     
    I agree.

    BRICS and G20 are both talking shops with exceedingly few or no tangible benefits from membership. The BRICS development bank is, at best, small and does not even function properly.

    Tornas keeps shouting about things done by BRICS. Except none them are actually done by BRICS. Individual countries (who happen to be BRICS members) take actions. For example, there are various strong Russia/China bilateral deals that have nothing to do with BRICS.

    Adding Iran to BRICS actually limits its growth potential. There are many countries who simply do not care about the Middle East and do not want the entanglement.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Torna atrás

  • As you might guess from their difference in massiveness, George Soros's heir Alex's reference to Edi Rama, the prime minister of Albania, as his "brother" is intended metaphorically. Rama is another giant from the Dinaric Alps. At 6'7", he a former player on the Albanian national basketball team. Jerry Pournelle told me the tallest man...
  • @epebble
    @Daniel H

    I don't know what that "Product manager" does but where I work (a famous company producing advanced technology physical products), a product manager is a very important position. Usually he/she is the only person who knows all the product requirements, knows how to use the product both like a simple user as well as an expert user. Without that person, different subgroups (mechanical design, electronics, software, user interface, reliability, manufacturability ....) will do their own things well but the product will be a disaster. A camel is a horse designed by a committee.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Well, when I product managed disk drives, tapes drives and electronic materials, the R&D, manufacturing, marketing and sales people reported to me. I talked to potential buyers and device developers, VCs supporting value added partners and so on. Thus I specified what the product should perform like and cost. I never felt we had enough design input. I also scanned the horizon for new stuff someday. New product managers generally were blooded on the one year out cost reduction redesign. Almost nobody outside a small circle in large leading corporations firms knows what product managers do. In the UK, HR people thought it should be some kind of sales position. In mid size firms, board level managers fulfill the same function. The R&D engineers and chemists were usually too arrogant to address actual user needs by themselves.

    The division general manager is there with his function managers to make sure there are enough products under development to assure the division’s future and to find us resources.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the ongoing Israel/Gaza conflict and the second on China's rise and the resulting confrontation with the...
  • @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    Russia doesn't want anything Ukraine has except her role as a somewhat neutral buffer zone. If Ukraine cuts military and espionage ties with the West Russia might leave them alone after a fashion. Russia doesn't want the land, they want NATO and NeoNazi trouble out of Ukraine since it is only there to cause serious problems for Russia.

    This entire Western project in Ukraine is a pressure campaign against Russia. If Russia backs up there is every reason to believe the West will keep pushing at the border. They will ratchet up regime change efforts in Belarus, Georgia and Kazakhstan. The pattern has already been established. The West has dropped and scoffed at important treaties so there is no reason for Russia to trust any agreements involving the West. That means Ukraine must either cut geopolitical ties with the West or Russia will drive them out.

    The West gradually made this war inevitable, starting three decades ago. You are starting the clock in 2022. That is ridiculous.

    The West would use a nuke against Russia in a way that responsibility was unclear so that retribution would be delayed and possibly bluffed away. On the other hand, maybe in the chaos a dumb Ukie agent on the Belgorod will accidentally launch a Poseidon torpedo at New York. I've heard Brooklyn needs a fresh start anyway.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Philip Owen

    The Ukraine war is an unforced error by Russian fascists.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Actions have consequences.

    The USA directly threatened Russia by dropping out of the ABM Treaty, expanding NATO to the Russian border and placing missiles in Romania. Stirring up regime change and performing coups in Russian border countries is already a low grade war started by the West. Everyone knew that Russia would respond militarily at some point. Why lie about it?

    Replies: @John Johnson

  • @A123
    @Torna atrás



    BRICS is a very weak grouping, more for discussion rather than action. What tangible gains does a nation obtain when they become a member?
     
    the aspirations of BRICS in the sphere of transforming the world
    ...
    but as an element of Beijing’s policy
     
    Thanks for confirming that BRICS offers aspirations, not tangible benefits to members.

    And, it risks making a country an "element of Beijing's policy".

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Torna atrás, @Philip Owen

    BRICS is a Russian initiative currently trying to be a parallel OPEC but controlled by Russia. It has no institutions apart from a development bank without money run by Brits. The members don’t even take each currency reliably any more. Russia won’t take Rupees, China is too concerned about controlling the Yuan for it to become a reserve currency although it/RMB could still be a trading currency.

  • @Torna atrás
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    There are no real "Japanese" people in the America and most Westerners will never know the cultural baseline for someone “Japanese”. This is much more the case for Japanese than for Chinese or Koreans.

    Whenever a hot button issue regarding China comes up (ex. Hong Kong), there is at least an appreciable however marginalized, group of mainland-educated English-speaking Chinese willing to provide a second opinion and anchor the discourse. They ultimately have no voice in public opinion, but you can at least talk to them in private. But there is no such Japanese equivalent. It is simply impossible to find something that resembles an authentic Japanese in America because those types simply wouldn’t come to America right now and the rest have faded away.

    To observe this phenomenon, try eating Japanese food in the United States (you can’t). Most supposedly Japanese restaurants are owned by Koreans intentionally catering to an audience that can't differentiate between yellow people.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    In the late 1980s, Yuki Sushi near the Valley Mall in Santa Clara was definitely Japanese. Saw Steve Jobs there once.

    • Thanks: Torna atrás
  • @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Philip Owen

    You should watch chad wright's video about training African soldiers when he was in the service. They are f'n retards on average. The title of his video is something like the worst place I have ever been.

    Replies: @Torna atrás, @QCIC, @Wokechoke

    This one never gets old:

    [MORE]

    • LOL: Philip Owen
  • @Torna atrás
    @Philip Owen

    What kind?

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/President_Obama_Chats_With_Mozambique%27s_President_Guebuza_and_Zambia%27s_Vice_President_Scott.jpg/962px-President_Obama_Chats_With_Mozambique%27s_President_Guebuza_and_Zambia%27s_Vice_President_Scott.jpg

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    That particular guy, the former Vice President, has a PhD in Robotics from Cambridge University. The previous government had him as VP to reassure the voters that corruption was minimized. Did wonders to keep the white farmers too. He was offered the job of President when Sata died but declined on the grounds of his race. No one else was objecting. The opposition won the election and Zambia had a difficult time due to massive corruption. The new President is already so rich that no one thinks that he will steal much, at least by way of straight cash.

    • Thanks: Torna atrás
    • Replies: @Torna atrás
    @Philip Owen

    That kind?

  • @Philip Owen
    @Derer

    Meanwhile, unacknowledged by anyone, the European Space Agency led on launching instrumentation probes.

    Replies: @Derer, @QCIC

    The ESA Hipparcos and Gaia missions are outstanding. They have launched plenty of other cool missions as well. I don’t think anything comes close to JWST.

    The Russians had the lead in human orbital flight forever. A case can be made that ISS would not exist without the canceled Mir-2 program.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
  • @Derer
    @QCIC


    I don’t think any country has (space) technology remotely comparable to the US
     
    Perhaps the best promoted technology only. The average American would hardly answer the pertinent questioned, whose technology enabled the first human to journey into outer space, or whose technology delivered the first earth object to Mars. It was not the US, therefore we do not care.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Philip Owen

    Meanwhile, unacknowledged by anyone, the European Space Agency led on launching instrumentation probes.

    • Replies: @Derer
    @Philip Owen


    Meanwhile, unacknowledged by anyone, the European Space Agency led on launching instrumentation probes.
     
    Waste of EU taxpayers money.

    Exclusive: Russia attempting to develop nuclear space weapon to destroy satellites with massive energy wave, sources familiar with intel say.
    , @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    The ESA Hipparcos and Gaia missions are outstanding. They have launched plenty of other cool missions as well. I don't think anything comes close to JWST.

    The Russians had the lead in human orbital flight forever. A case can be made that ISS would not exist without the canceled Mir-2 program.

  • @YetAnotherAnon
    @John Johnson

    "The UN voted that Crimea belongs to Ukraine and Putin agreed in 2008"

    But that was before the Nuland Coup of 2014. Russia did what any responsible nation would have done.

    I'm sure Biden's handlers agree that Mexico is a sovereign nation - right up until a Chinese-organised coup replaces their government. Still, that's a few years away yet.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    What coup? Did you actually listen to the Nuland phone call. She didn’t have a clue what was happening or who to support. You are rewriting history to correspnd to Silovki fascist narratives.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @Philip Owen

    It's amazing that more than a hundred people were apparently killed by snipers in Kiev, but still no one knows who did it. Some police were prosecuted and acquitted.

    You know that neck of the woods pretty well, any update on the perps? If the facts change I'll change my mind.

    Or will they forever remain unknown, like the people who blew up NS2?

  • @Beckow
    @John Johnson


    ...Zelensky did not initiate the referendum required to join NATO and in fact at that time both Germany and France were opposed.
     
    NATO membership was put in Ukie Constitution in 2019 - after Zelko was elected. Do you know what a Constitution is? No 'referendum' is required, it is in their f...ing Constitution! Don't play dumb.

    Germany and France only said 'not yet', they are vassals. It was a cheap charade - at any point when it was desirable they would simply be told by Washington to agree. That answers your question why Russia attacked Ukraine - NATO-in-Ukraine is a red line for them and rightly so.

    But you will repeat your desperate lying points that only display the desperation of the losing side. At least have the balls to admit that NATO tried to get into Ukraine, Russia started the war to block it and is winning - and we can all move on...It would be more honorable, if you still know what that means...

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Philip Owen

    The USA does not have the power to tell France and Germany what to do about Ukrainian NATO membership. This is the lunatic Russian faxcist conspiracy thinking that led to these wars. Completely demented. t”s an illness inheritied from Soviet times when an all powerful government pretended it controlled everything and things were always decided behind closed doors. Bad decisions all the way. There is no one intellignet enough who understands the levers to control these things. You are demented.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Philip Owen

    I hope that kremlinstoogeA123 reads your comment here. He seems to be laboring under the assumption that "IslamoSoros" is running all of Europe right now and is giving orders to all of Europe's leaders to encourage more Muslims to come and stay, in order to wreck Europe and to become some sort of a staging ground against Israel. Personally, I think that it's all a part of his retarded imagination, fueled by too much airplane glue...

    , @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    The USA does not have the power to tell France and Germany what to do about Ukrainian NATO membership. This is the lunatic Russian faxcist conspiracy thinking that led to these wars.
     
    LOL.

    Right now it would probably be more like France trying to persuade the US to let Ukraine in (although Macron has lost parliamentary support for his bellicose initiatives) and Germany agreeing with whatever the bosses decide but you never fail to come up with the most hilarious remarks in every thread. Thanks!

    Just a few months ago the world witnessed how Washington/Brussels even convinced Fico, Orban and Erdogan to shut up and let Sweden and Finland in NATO or else... but it's all a Kremlin fascist plot. All nations, big and small, have equal weight in NATO and can show the middle finger to the US whenever they like lol
  • @Philip Owen
    @songbird

    I've just sponsored to join the British Army. The terminal bonus is enough to but a decent small business when service is over. There are over 50 countries in The Commonwealth whose citizens may legally join the British Army. Only the Gurkhas get residence.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    a Zambian

    • LOL: Torna atrás
    • Replies: @Torna atrás
    @Philip Owen

    What kind?

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8c/President_Obama_Chats_With_Mozambique%27s_President_Guebuza_and_Zambia%27s_Vice_President_Scott.jpg/962px-President_Obama_Chats_With_Mozambique%27s_President_Guebuza_and_Zambia%27s_Vice_President_Scott.jpg

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Philip Owen

    You should watch chad wright's video about training African soldiers when he was in the service. They are f'n retards on average. The title of his video is something like the worst place I have ever been.

    Replies: @Torna atrás, @QCIC, @Wokechoke

  • @songbird
    @German_reader


    isn’t likely to be rectified anytime soon (e.g. Britain’s army is somewhere around 70 000 in strength now iirc).
     
    British army is using Pidgin to recruit Nigerians.
    https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/articles/c1k3zz27jjro

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @German_reader, @Philip Owen, @Sean

    I’ve just sponsored to join the British Army. The terminal bonus is enough to but a decent small business when service is over. There are over 50 countries in The Commonwealth whose citizens may legally join the British Army. Only the Gurkhas get residence.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Philip Owen

    a Zambian

    Replies: @Torna atrás, @Emil Nikola Richard

  • @Emil Nikola Richard
    Today I learned about brain eating amoeba which I never heard about before. The Roman baths in Bath have been closed since 1978 because of them.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/08/Roman_Baths_in_Bath_Spa%2C_England_-_July_2006.jpg/1177px-Roman_Baths_in_Bath_Spa%2C_England_-_July_2006.jpg

    I don't know man. I don't think I need a government G9 officer to tell me not to go into that water.

    Replies: @songbird, @Philip Owen

    They drain it and clean it regulalry to reduce the concentrations but they’ve not been able to eliminate the infection.

  • @A123
    Useful information on RFKjr's endorsement of Trump. Here is an except from his speech: (1)

    We talked not about the things that separate us—because we don’t agree on everything—but about the values and the issues that bind us together. One of the issues he talked about was having safe food and ending the chronic disease epidemic.

    Our children are now the unhealthiest, sickest children in the world. Don’t you want healthy children? Don’t you want the chemicals out of our food? Don’t you want the regulatory agencies to be free from corporate corruption?

    That’s what President Trump told me he wanted. He also told me that he wanted to end the grip of the neocons on U.S. foreign policy.

    He said he didn’t want any more $200 billion wars in Ukraine—that we could use that money back here in the United States. The best way to build a safe America is to rebuild our industrial base and the middle class in this country.

    Don’t you want a President who’s going to get us out of wars and rebuild the middle class in this country?
     
    MAGA Reindustrialization is a cornerstone of bringing back the middle class.

    It will be interesting to see what (if any) concrete proposals come forth related to farming. BigAg like BigPharma is an entrenched foe that will be hard to dislodge. A serious effort would have to separate one or two firms from the herd.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/08/25/deeper-thoughts-on-rfk-jr-endorsement-of-president-donald-trump/

     
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/RFK-Jr-and-Trump-2.jpg

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Beckow

    MAGA Reindustrialization is a cornerstone of bringing back the middle class.

    I hate to rain on your parade but most of the middle class doesn’t want to come back. They either want to be rich or (f…k it!) do an amoeba lifestyle away from hard work and a spotlight. They had it for a few generations and sucked life out of it. They sold their progeny, talked a lot, brought in cheap servants who don’t really like to serve… It was easier that way. When in doubt they answer everything by pointing to their ‘houses‘ like well-trained monkeys – see Mr. Hacks for a good example.

    Trump and RFK are better, they say right things and have a sense of introspection and responsibility. Can they change anything? The problem are the white-middle class-lazy beta males who will sell anything to be left in minimal comfort, it’s the same in Europe. People with no balls paralyzed with sugar and fast-converting carbos. The truth is they are scared. You can’t change a society with fearful people. But good luck anyway.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Beckow

    RFKj may claim that a majority of beta males in the USA are the product of ubiquitous bad food and mandatory bad shots which directly lead to an array of health problems including obesity and low T. There may be some important truth to his perspective. The powers that be chemically castrate the young bulls to turn them into compliant steers and fatten them up for slaughter. I don't know if Kennedy goes as far as suggesting all of this is intentional or accepts it is simply a side effect of callous greed by big Ag and big Pharma, aided and abetted by a controlled government.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    When in doubt they answer everything by pointing to their ‘houses‘ like well-trained monkeys – see Mr. Hacks for a good example.
     
    And what do you point to when trying to garner a new contract to remodel somebody's castle or home?

    No wonder that your remodeling business is running on fumes right now. Your sovok upbringing never allowed you to learn about the wonderful world of marketing (brochures). :-(

    Replies: @Beckow

  • @Dmitry
    @Mr. Hack

    Do you still play those CDs in the old fashioned way or are those just ripped to a hard disk?

    I have a feeling few people even like to play their CDs directly nowadays.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    My car still has a 6 disc CD player which I use from time to time to hear tracks in the intended order but mostly its Spotify to bluetooth speakers (sometimes using a bluetooth adapter into the audio jack). Noise cancelling headphones can be comforting too.

  • @Mikel
    @Beckow


    To be fair, it is Russia that has been holding its fire and keeping it contained.
     
    I wouldn't give them too much credit for that. On the one hand, it just shows that they are not suicidal yet. On the other hand, they seem to maintain their hopes that they can achieve some kind of victory against Ukraine plus the collective West through limited conventional means. Let's see how that works out and what they do if it doesn't work out at all and the prospects of defeat destabilize the situation again (barely a year ago we were on the verge of a coup). Besides, let's not forget that what they are keeping "contained" is the most egregious land grab in Europe since the 40s, with sham referendums and all.

    I do appreciate that all of this was fueled by a gang of primates on our side who didn't have the wisdom of convincing the Russians that we are not planning to surround them militarily and that we didn't really need to further expand to Ukraine if that helped avert a war. A bunch of utter morons. But I equally have zero confidence in people capable of launching such a devastating war with hundreds of thousands of deaths, many of them civilians. That's why I am so pessimistic.

    To make matters worse, in the discussion I am having with Dmitry in the other thread I am reaching the conclusion that people from the former USSR, even the younger ones, seem to operate with totally different mental schemes. I should have probably realized this earlier because he's not exactly the first EE to show this disconnect.

    For many years I wondered why Russian media with a certain outreach in the West (up until recently you could tune in to Russia Today TV at any American hotel) didn't use those means to uncover the atrocities of the Ukrainians in Donbas to the Western audience. Westerners tend to be sensitive to stories of innocent people being slaughtered, especially by their own government, and they weren't getting that information from their media. But RT looked more interested in talking about Western social issues or questionable conspiracy stuff. Perhaps it wasn't incompetence but it's just a problem of different perspectives and visions of life. I'm sure they didn't want to do it but when they had to conquer Mariupol, the Russians killed an awful lot of their own kin inside the city. Same thing with their Ukrainian cousins when they tried to recover Donbas. Just the normal stuff for both of them. As a Central European, perhaps you have a better perspective than me of how much of a cultural disconnect persists between East and West these days.

    At any rate, trying to export the Western system to all corners of the world definitely looks like an insane strategy. It is not at all a good fit for everybody and far from preventing wars, it's proved to actually foment them. As a matter of fact, I'd say that we already have enough differences among us in the West (Germanics/Latins, Americans (much more accepting of violence)/all the rest) to even think that we have "a system" that we can export anywhere. Not to mention our own big social conflicts.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen, @Beckow

    There wern’t any atrocities to cover. That’s why they weren;t covered on Russian TV in Russia either. There were from time to time teams of crisis actors on internet channels and a vast multitude of reused imags from feature films and other wars. When Google Image was uncanny, I looked at 30 Donbas atrocity images and found 28 fakes immediately. The other 2 took slightly longer. Even without IT support, things like clothing, season, building style betrayed many of them, even quality of image (stills from some feature films).

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Philip Owen


    ...There wern’t any atrocities to cover.
     
    Kiev killed 2.6k civilians in Donbas based on UN official numbers. All "made up"? There was also the Odessa burning of 49 Russian-Ukies to death for daring to demonstrate. Nothing there?

    I noticed that about half of the blue-collar men in an English town were charged after they tried to burn a hotel-with-migrants - and failed, nobody was hurt. So in UK it is a horrible atrocity, but in Odessa it is nothing? You are one piece of work...

    Welshman strikes again: killing Russian civilians can't be an atrocity, they are Russians so it can't be wrong to kill them, right? Do we understand you correctly?

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    There wern’t any atrocities to cover.
     
    You sometimes come up with truly puzzling statements. I'm not even sure how to respond to this. Do you not know that Ukraine killed thousands of its own civilians when it tried to recover Donbas, as documented by several human rights organizations and the UN itself, or do you think that a government using the army to kill the very people that army is responsible for protecting does not amount to an atrocity?

    Here is the Protection of Civilians Military Reference Guide published by the United States Army War College for you:

    https://www.armywarcollege.edu/wps/resources/PoC%20MilRefGd%202nd%20edition.pdf
  • From a YouGov poll: Dr. Rachael Gunn, the hilariously inept Australian academic who somehow got a free trip to Paris to compete in Olympic breakdancing, embodies the Anglo spirit of childish egomania. Obviously, I could never at any age have qualified for any Olympic sport, not since the abolition of the Plunge for Distance. While...
  • @Anonymous
    @Anonymous


    German/Italian/Japanese pact was defensive. Since Germany started the war with Russia and Japan started the war with USA neither Axis power was required to assist the other in its struggle.
     
    The USA was the aggressor against Japan. Pearl Harbor was retaliatory.

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @Philip Owen

    Ah! The Vladimir Putin school of political analysis.

    I do thend to think that Hitler’s attack on USSR was, as he himself said in a speech a couple of days before Pearl Harbour, a premptive strike against an invasion of Germany that Stalin was prepaing. Hitler had no sane reason to invade the USSR. All the available supplies including smuggled rubber were being sent to Germany in abundance. He had Lebensraum in Poland for the actual Generalplan OSt as written. It was more than enough land for the population available, so even insane reasons were not pressing.

    • Replies: @Patrick McNally
    @Philip Owen

    The immediate rationale which Hitler gave for an attack on the USSR when he declared that as the goal on July 31, 1940, was to knock out Britain's last hope. He said nothing about fearing an imminent Soviet attack, but instead argued that Britain would cling to the possibility until the USSR was knocked out. That is recorded in Halder's diary entry for July 31, 1940.

    But the aim of living space immediately became part of the discussion once an invasion of the USSR had been proposed. Hitler firmly believed that he was a great leader of Germany, that such great leaders only come along occasionally, and that it is the task of a great leader to accomplish as much as can be done within his time. Poland was not adequate for German living space. He had repeatedly specified Russia as the vast territory for this. He was consciously aware that none of the leaders who succeeded him were likely to appreciate all of this. Hence, it had to be done in his lifetime.

    Hitler's mentality is very different from the way that the British Empire trained successive generations to slowly expand the realm. He sensed that he was the only one who could do the necessary things now, and this had to be accomplished before he passed on.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the ongoing Israel/Gaza conflict and the second on China's rise and the resulting confrontation with the...
  • @sudden death
    @Torna atrás

    Not specifically related to this particular video, which is not exception, but most peculiar thing that AK somehow manages to speak with the soft(?) accent in both of his used languages. When speaking in English, it sounds like Russian one and in his Russian speech English accent could be noticed. Wonder if it's common linguistical thing in RF diaspora communities of his generation or just personal trademark quirk?

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Torna atrás

    I’ve met him in person. I was suprised at the strength of his Russian accent. This was before he went to live in Russia. Very little American. I expected him to be more British by accent as the meeting was in London. Most people’s accents switch around. I think exile is tough, especially on the children. Where’s home really?

  • Probably, fat people get depressed just from not eating. So if you give them drugs to make them not eat, of course they’re going to be more likely to kill themselves. I would also wager that fat people have much lower suicide rates generally, and so if people lose weight for any reason, they become...
  • I was an early trial for Ozempic on the NHS as a compliant T2 diabetes patient who did a lot of self monitoring. I was overweight, not obese. I took the drug for 15 months.

    The side effects were debilitating including those affecting mood and contcentration. Diabetes control was no better than my previous regime other than when I had an infection such as a cold when ozempic gave me better control. However, the side effects for 5 months to get better control over one month were not worth it for me.

    I was losing weight anyway. I lost 8 kg on ozempic and regained 6 kg in 3 weeks without a surge in eating! The 2kg net loss was consistent with my previous regime. It might help people eating with their families where portion size or food content is not under their control. It will give them a stimulus to just say no. Otherwise I didn’t find it useful but people with less opportunity to structure their life might. It is not a long term solution. I found the side effects very destructive.

    • Replies: @Dumbo
    @Philip Owen

    Those pills don't work, you always need another pill to combat the bad side effects of the first pill.

    Many of those people on Ozempic are fat because of the SSRI pills they take which increases obesity.

    There was a funny cartoon about that but unfortunately I can't find it now.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the ongoing Israel/Gaza conflict and the second on China's rise and the resulting confrontation with the...
  • @Not Raul
    Karlin isn’t coming back; maybe we should stop making new threads.

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Philip Owen, @Wokechoke

    It’s still the only pplace where there is a half intelligent reasonably infomred debate about Russia that I’ve found. It’s never reached the standards of Anatoly’s original blog but it is still head and shoulders above anything else. Most of the rest of the site is a cesspit.

    • Thanks: Not Raul
    • Replies: @Torna atrás
    @Philip Owen

    https://i0.wp.com/paulogala.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/england.jpg


    never reached the standards of Anatoly’s original blog
     
  • For many people, the nation-state is no longer the primary identity, but international relations are still based on Westphalian norm of theoretically sovereign states. And yet, today’s political orthodoxy requires that Western states be for everyone. Anyone of any race can be American, European, Australian, or Canadian. However, many people, even liberals or multiculturalists, are...
  • @Miville
    @True Blue

    The abolition of slavery was a great thing for the few souls who really worked at it, like the inventions of so many tinkers that happened about the same time, alas, like these technical inventions made by a few which did not prevent anglo-saxons to despise culture and the quest for truth as a general rule, it happened once England had wreaked more havoc in that domain than any other world power to the point of emptying that source of revenue worldwide. It is no use accusing the elephants in the living room no one dare mention, nor the Barbary pirate Arabs, because for all practical purposes nearly ALL Barbary pirate operations were commandeered by Southern Italian entrepreneurs and by English ones in a proportion of about half and half, so as to catch the Latin catholic nations into a kind of pair of scissors.

    The Arabs and Turks proper were not very good at sea warfare (in particular they panicked when they were forced to navigate beyond the visibility of the coasts they knew) without allying with better navigators than themselves such as the Vikings and Normans and then the English when coastal England became a Norman country. Cities such as Algiers were operated by Whites from more Northern latitudes that were called Turks of Profession because of the purely perfunctory conversion to Islamic rituals they performed before embarking in their devastation campaigns (anyway the Church of England approved such fake conversions as long as it helped more money to accrue to the oligarchy of England : the Southern Italian Catholic Church also knew how to make like excuses in a typically Jesuitic fashion) : the proof of it was that these Barbary pirate dens did not speak Arabic nor Turkish but a kind of syntactically English Italian-sounding pidgin called sabir or lingua franca, though the language of military orders in the legal part of their army was Southern Italian even in Constantinople. In brief these Barbary havens were already like the expat-peopled Emirati : most slaves captured there worked for European entrepreneurs (banked by Jews) who especially enjoyed having no Christian Church intervening in their business in some way by the customs of their country.

    They ravaged the coasts of Ireland, Cornwall, Wales and Scotland because they knew them in great detail as inferior peoples to keep down by all means. Another main reason that drove towards the abolition of slavery was that in the British Empire of that time salaries were falling lower than the keeping costs of a slave. That abolitionist movement also failed to address the enslavement of Irish people being literally sold to the United States. Slavery was not abolished at home but only as regards people other competitor powers in Europe were still deriving profits from. Slavery had been far more effectively abolished throughout the Kingdom of France in Europe (though not in their overseas dependencies the government of which was outside the Royal domain proper but only in diplomatic alliance : Saint Domingue (future Haiti) for instance was not a French catholic colony but a Jewish-masonic one). Even under the French Ancien regime any slave from any country that touched continental French ground was freed on the spot with no compensation for his former owner (American revolutionists such as Franklin or Jefferson who came with their closest slaves to do business in France knew they were about to lose them unless they knew how to keep them as friends), contrary to England where despite the abolition going on the slave to be liberated had to wait for his owner to be compensated : in general what he lost in slave labour in the West Indies he gained in free labour in East India.

    The biggest slave trading port of the Mediterranean that harboured nearly all the headquarters of the multinational companies that operated from the nominally Turkish cities of Barbary and Levant was definitely Venice. Its final capture by Napoleonic France sounded the utter disorganization of Barbary piracy, even though Napoleon himself was moved by no sentimental argument and had legalized slavery again in his overseas possession.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Slavery for Christians was abolished in England in 1068. For people of all religions it was abolished in 1102. The Irish slave traders who called at Britol in 1103 had their eyes gouged out, ending 600 years of Irish slave trading. It was never reinstated. Barbados was not England. The status of indentured labourers of various races was ambigious. The Barbados slave code was introduced to clarify the law. Elsewhere, in territories won via war in Europe such as Jamaica or Trinidad, Spanish, Dutch or French law was followed. This obviously didn’t stop England becoming very involved in the slave trade and Britain in trading plantation products.

    The Irish and other criminals were never slaves. They were indentured labourers with significant rights and a limited sentence at the end of which they sometimes received the same benefits as voluntary indentured labourers.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the dramatic developments in the American presidential race and the second on striking revelations produced by...
  • @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    Non Russian media largely covers Russia in response to Russian provocations.
     
    What Russian provocation caused 4 years of the "Russia collusion" clown show in all Western media? Do you think that Trump won the 2016 elections with Russian help? Were the Russians behind Brexit too?



    IF Russia got on with the job of building prosperity for itself, nobody outside the business press would have anything to say.
     
    Russia should stay within its borders and concentrate on building prosperity for its citizens in any case. But you cannot blame them for believing that NATO's expansion eastwards, including in the Caucasus, has the objective of encroaching them militarily. What other possible reason could there be for the expansion of a military alliance to all countries surrounding Russia while rejecting Russia's request to join that alliance?

    Do you think that NATO has done a good job at keeping you secure? Do you feel more secure now than 10 years ago, when there was no new cold war, zero threats of nuclear attacks on Britain and no major war going on in Europe?

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Dmitry

    Putin’s 2007 rant in Munich left no one secure.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Philip Owen


    ...Putin’s 2007 rant in Munich left no one secure.
     
    He said "don't try to surround us, we have a red line". West should have listened. Security is a mutual thing.

    What is a "rant"? How does it differ from a "speech"? Is every Biden's, Trump's, Starmer's, Bibi's speech also a "rant". Your hatred shows...it makes you irrelevant.

  • @Derer
    @AP


    I’ll remind you that America went all the way to the other side of the world and captured all of Iraq in 5 weeks.
     
    I'll remind you that Iraq was alone and the US military bases were not on the other side of the world. On the other hand Ukraine is supported by the world professional terrorist organization NATO consisting of 30 countries. Grenada invasion example would have been better.

    I know that you in your pea-sized brain will come up defending your idiocy as usual.

    Replies: @AP, @John Johnson

    On the other hand Ukraine is supported by the world professional terrorist organization NATO consisting of 30 countries.

    The UN vote on the Russian invasion was 143-5
    https://press.un.org/en/2022/ga12458.doc.htm

    That 5 includes Russia and Belarus.

    Putin’s supporters in the UN are dictators that rule by force.

    Ukraine has NATO and also the world minus a few loser countries with dictators.

    I know that you in your pea-sized brain will come up defending your idiocy as usual.

    Truly amazing that you are calling people idiots while defending the 2.5 week special military operation that is on year 2.5 and Ukraine is in Russia.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Gerard1234
    @John Johnson


    The UN vote on the Russian invasion was 143-5

    Putins supporters in the UN are dictators that rule by force
     
    Afghanistan under the Taliban voted against Russia you dumb POS.

    NATO/EU plus de facto NATO as Australia/New Zealand,Japan,South Korea, Switzerland is about 40 countries you dickhead. Then you have Macedonia,Kosovo, Gruzian scum and 404. So that is effectively 45 countries voting for themselves you thick POS. 44 countries who can't take a piss without American permission.

    Nearly all South America is in permanant fear of America performing another coup or instigating another civil war there . So that explains their "vote".
    Mexico either votes against Russia, with zero consequences ( except benefits to their oil industry) or it votes for Russia, with serious blackmail consequences from its key investment and trade partner, the US. An obvious decision you moron.

    Then you have Gulf states who don't sanction us in any way, but are full of western capital , western projects and similar to our oligarchs- their elites/their royal family have properties, kids educated, yachts, sports clubs etc that they own in the west...and have just seen their Russian equivalents have much of their assets confiscated. Again, its the sane thing to do

    Singapore- one of the financial centres of the planet. Different to the Gulf they have made serious sanction moves against us. They either vote against Russia....or have Pindostan commit financial terrorism to destroy their entire banking sector.

    Then you have a load of British and French colonial ( and still now partially owned) Caribbean and Pacific Island states you demented thick retard. They are obviously good to be no more than puppets and are forced to block vote like this all the time.

    Then there are those African countries who had the bad luck to be colonised by the useless French imbeciles. They are all in a disastrous state- but forced or in some Stockholm syndrome bilateral with the French- except those who have now rebelled as in Niger. But again its a forced vote.

    So you dumb prick , about 40% of those voting against Russia....are voting for themselves.
    30% are just colonial puppet micro states/ islands forced to vote like that by their historical colonial masters who still control much and keep the tourism strong.....

    Then the other 30% are mostly those who can't be bothered to be blackmailed.

    The only ones that are truly relevamt for not voting for or neutral for us are Egypt, Indonesia and Malaysia.

    Abstention is effectively implicit support for Russia you mindless freakshow. So its about 140- 60 against Russia, but that 60 having the most populated countries and over 50% of world population.

    While defending the 2.5 week special military operation that is on year 2.5
     
    2.5 weeks is a fictitious invention from nutjob NATO psyops centre, propagated further by millions of semi-automated troll dogshit as yourself. Of course no Russian official or soldier has ever said this. Although it does have some truth in that we annihilated and achieved key objectives in the SMO in actually far less than 2.5 weeks.
    The objective has changed, elongating the SMO, simply because their NATO masters have decided we have to kill 2 million,3 million,4 million ukronazis you deranged scumbag.

    and Ukraine is in Russia
     
    Well its NATO in Russia, 0.0001% of Russia, mostly hiding in forest and getting incinerated in open space and the forest you dipshit. They have got there by being filthy , deceitful parasites - as with Donetsk Airport as these vermin willfully violated the first Minsk Agreement , or the Nazi coup after Yanukovich signed a deal for early elections. Sumy was nearly as safe as some of the western regions you idiot. These parasites , knowing after some lower scale attempts that trying the same in Belgorod would go nowhere...have simply taken advantage of the relatively peaceful nature of the Kursk/ Sumy border for the suicide mission and paying significantly for this stupidity.

    Replies: @Jazman

    , @Derer
    @John Johnson

    Until no serious actions will be taken on Ami-srael numerous overwhelming resolutions, you can stick these anti-Russian resolutions you know where. It is the time to move UN headquarters to a quasi neutral Geneva.

    Russia rightly wants to take their historical land back from the Ukro-Zog (a 1% minority occupy 40% of government - a US model). It was not done during the divorce because the Clinton's communist puppet Yeltsin was too dumb to envision the consequences. How long was BREXIT negotiated in comparison?

    Replies: @A123, @John Johnson

  • @Beckow
    @QCIC


    ...most people probably wonder why Kiev was not leveled a long time ago.
     
    Russia can do it so there must be a rational reason they don't do it. Initially "SMO" was meant as a punitive expedition to force Kiev to fulfill the Minsk. It almost worked but NATO told Kiev to instead fight.

    When the war went full steam Russia wanted to be the 'good guys' and not antagonize Ukies too much - so they held back the firepower. In the long run too much destruction would be a huge headache and an emotional black spot NATO would exploit.

    NATO desperately wants a no-holds-barred war with lots of dead Ukies and Russians. That's the way West fights its wars, it shows us that the lives of Iraqis, Libyans, Palis, or even Serbs and Albanians are of zero interest to them. The problem with Russia's caution is that in an all out war the more desperate side sets the rules. NATO wants an unlimited war and a destroyed Ukraine if they can't have it. It will not be too hard to slowly walk Russia to a total war.

    Or Russians are waiting for winter when it will have most impact - the West will be internally transitioning...among the G7 June leaders three are gone, Macron emasculated and Scholz irrelevant. Maybe Kiev will be lucky and not too damaged, it's a beautiful city...

    Replies: @A123, @John Johnson, @Philip Owen

    Russia was thrashed at Kyiv and destroyed Mariupol. Neither of those fit your narrative nor the failures at Odesa and Mikolaeyev.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Philip Owen

    Mariupol is considered essential by Russia - without it they couldn't control Azov Sea. They withdrew from Kiev on their own once it was clear that it will be an all-out war, there were too few of them there. They never tried to take Odessa.

    I understand that we will have conflicting narratives, wars are messy. But there is more evidence supporting my narrative. The key point is that Russia has not massively bombed Kharkiv, Kiev, Lviv...And they could do it.

    Do you remember how NATO (=West) fights its wars? Shock-and-awe, hundreds of thousands civilians killed, we will take you to Middle Ages!, massacred Palis....Look at your own side, maybe it will temper your Russia-hatred.

    , @Mikhail
    @Philip Owen

    Nothing of the sort in happened in or near Kiev. Kiev regime thugs used civilians and civilian infrastructure in Mariupol as human shields. No failures yet in the two other places you mention.

  • @Derer
    @Philip Owen


    I’m Welsh nobody thinks we are important.
     
    I am relieved...you are important in making little England even smaller. Was Lord David Owen - sent to Bosnia in the 90's to create Vance-Owen Plan - any Welsh relation? He boldly stated to EU morons faces: "Now it is clear that Milosevic really wants peace"

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Grandparents I believe.

  • An extremely serious debate is already raging among selected circles of power/intelligence in Moscow – and the heart of the matter could not be more incandescent. To cut to the chase: what really happened in Kursk? Was the Russian Ministry of Defense caught napping? Or did they see it coming and profited to set up...
  • @Wokechoke
    @Philip Owen

    No one could have anticipated a German strike into the Kursk Salient…right. Luckily the Russians dug in there and flooded the area with antitank guns.


    The normal pro western argument is that the Allied amphibious landings in Italy required Hitler to redirect the elite SS divisions to Italy, thus decisively shutting down the German push on Prokorovka.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    The first use of Tigers was indeed in Italy.

    • Replies: @Lurker
    @Philip Owen

    Tunisia.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the dramatic developments in the American presidential race and the second on striking revelations produced by...
  • @Derer
    @Philip Owen

    You are suffering from little England (do not count with Scots or N.Ireland) losing any importance. You better move from that island, it is on Russian target list.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @LondonBob

    I’m Welsh nobody thinks we are important.

    • Replies: @Derer
    @Philip Owen


    I’m Welsh nobody thinks we are important.
     
    I am relieved...you are important in making little England even smaller. Was Lord David Owen - sent to Bosnia in the 90's to create Vance-Owen Plan - any Welsh relation? He boldly stated to EU morons faces: "Now it is clear that Milosevic really wants peace"

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  • @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    Russia doesn’t matter much unless you are Russian.
     
    You are right. I don't remember having read or heard the word 'Russia' in the American media since 2016 one single time. Also, it's pretty clear that the eastward expansion of NATO after the Cold War ended was just a protection measure against the Iranian and North Korean threats.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Non Russian media largely covers Russia in response to Russian provocations. IF Russia got on with the job of building prosperity for itself, nobody outside the business press would have anything to say.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    Non Russian media largely covers Russia in response to Russian provocations.
     
    What Russian provocation caused 4 years of the "Russia collusion" clown show in all Western media? Do you think that Trump won the 2016 elections with Russian help? Were the Russians behind Brexit too?



    IF Russia got on with the job of building prosperity for itself, nobody outside the business press would have anything to say.
     
    Russia should stay within its borders and concentrate on building prosperity for its citizens in any case. But you cannot blame them for believing that NATO's expansion eastwards, including in the Caucasus, has the objective of encroaching them militarily. What other possible reason could there be for the expansion of a military alliance to all countries surrounding Russia while rejecting Russia's request to join that alliance?

    Do you think that NATO has done a good job at keeping you secure? Do you feel more secure now than 10 years ago, when there was no new cold war, zero threats of nuclear attacks on Britain and no major war going on in Europe?

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Dmitry

  • @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Philip Owen

    I like this.

    NATo can just go home and nobody will care!

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    In case you haven’t noticed, NATO isn’t there.

    It is more comforting for Putin and the Stavka to pretend to be deceived and beaten by NATO than admit they were wrong about the tripartite Russian nation. When they weren’t welcomed, it wasn’t a mistake. They were deceived, probably by the British, that Ukrainians loved them. The Great Game (always lost by weak defenceless Russia) and all that.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Philip Owen


    In case you haven’t noticed, NATO isn’t there.

    It is more comforting for Putin and the Stavka to pretend to be deceived and beaten by NATO than admit they were wrong about the tripartite Russian nation. When they weren’t welcomed, it wasn’t a mistake. They were deceived, probably by the British, that Ukrainians loved them. The Great Game (always lost by weak defenceless Russia) and all that.
     
    More like idiot Brit establishment still thinks it's major world power which it clearly isn't to the degree it once was.

    Russia, Belarus and Ukraine acknowledge links to Rus in a way that Poland doesn't. Russia is perfectly aware of the odious Banderite influence within Kiev regime controlled Ukraine, while knowing this isn't indicative of all Ukrainians.

    The more well informed among us see how the EU/NATO Kool-Aid isn't so popular in Georgia as it was under Saakashvili who is in a Georgian jail.
  • @John Johnson
    @songbird

    Some of the people in Congress honestly do seem pretty stupid. But I am not too sure it would improve things very much.

    Lawyers are often thought of as being smart, (and a lot of Congress is lawyers.). But lawyers generally don’t have a great reputation for honesty.

    Congress is filled with intelligent lawyers that lie to themselves.

    Then there are all the nihilists that only pretend to have conservative or liberal beliefs. Giving them an intelligence boost would make them worse.

    I've spent time around both liberals and conservatives. It's unnerving as to how many in a city like DC will privately admit that their side lies to the public. I have had both liberals and conservatives get annoyed over questions about race. I've gotten both to admit that their side has to lie to stop the other side. Both sides view rural Whites as children that need to be told tall tales for their own good.

    It's also surprising as to how much intelligent people will flock to a group for social/identity reasons even when they know that it has major logic problems. If you want a career in politics then you have to keep your skepticism to yourself. You're not going to move up the ladder by pointing out how your side isn't being honest.

    Democrats/Republicans in general are full of shit but the far-left is on another level. I've had multiple leftists admit that free speech can't exist until race is gone and that skeptics need to be imprisoned for the sake of equality. I had one tell me that racial equality will never exist but we need to lie anyways and make it a crime to talk about racial differences.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Believing the impossible and lying to the public is a test of loyalty to the party. One reason I didn’t chose to become a professional politican.

    To change the topic, tests of faith have beome in issue in most science that is not solidly experimental. IT’s the same in corporatelife too. Large organizations have totem poles.

  • @Derer
    @John Johnson


    Unbelievable that you and others don’t have the sense to stop defending this stupid war.
     
    I will not stop defending this war against NATO until NATO evaporates into a thin air. And it will! In the long run the Russian resources will become dominating power.

    Imagine in 2014 when civil war erupted in Ukraine targeting ethnic Russians in their historical Donbas land. All encouraged with a glee by the despicable US and EU warmongers and Russia pathological haters that had no business to interfere in a civil war against the minority. A repeat of the Bosnia civil war interference while there siding with the Ottoman remnants against Serbs.

    The US Wall Street will function few more years until the collapse that will resemble the 1929 misery and the third world status will set in. Decaying urban centres and infrastructure is already in full progress. I have no pleasure from this prognosis since younger generation including my sons will face the bleak future.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Your connection with past realities is weak.

  • @QCIC
    @AP

    What if the death toll really is 900,000 Ukrainians killed? Next year, when it is 2 million lost souls will you regret your cheerleading for this pointless war? Will you feel remorse for the part you played in leading good young men to their deaths?

    This Western anti-Russia project in Ukraine goes back a long time. The people have been manipulated by 30 years of skillful propaganda, supercharged for decades in an unprecedented way through the use of smart phone communications. You seem articulate, maybe you will eventually see through the lies. Perhaps you are too emotionally vested because of your own personal culpability in spreading the subtle lies. Or are you simply more arrogant and prideful than anything else?

    Remember that most of the dying so far comes from the left side of the bell curve. These men are counting on their wiser, older brothers for help keeping them out of harm's way in these dangerous complex situations. You and your ilk are making things worse and cheerleading for more carnage. Of course the deaths may soon be people from the chosen class who you actually care about. What will you do then? Will you double down and continue working to get everyone killed or can you admit that you were previously blinded by your pride and begin working to stop this horrible war?

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @AP

    Reality check. Russia took the wilful initiative to invade Ukraine twice. It was not spontaneous. It was over ten years in the planning. It owes everything to Nicholas I and Official Nationality and about nothing to NATO which was disbanding until Yeltsin shelled the White House.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    As you know, I think the USA dropping out of the nuclear arms control agreements with Russia is the most important and dangerous post-Cold War action by the West against Russia. This is simply because the nuclear standoff was the iconic and most dangerous issue of the Cold War after about 1950. This nuclear standoff has no precedent in human history. Sure there were probably times when terrible wars killed off entire populations. But this historical brutality did not have the rapidity or completeness of a nuclear war. Also, the planet was not interwoven in a complex web with keeps 8 billion people alive. This web is resilient, but probably not so much if a nuclear war happens. I think you are better off grappling with these facts and less time worrying about dead politicians playing in an earlier time. Sure the people are about the same, but the risks and stakes are much higher.

    This big picture has little to do with Russian and Ukrainian politicians and crooks. The conflict is about what the West WANTS to do to Russia as a country, even as an idea, and may be completely independent of the Slavic personages.

  • An extremely serious debate is already raging among selected circles of power/intelligence in Moscow – and the heart of the matter could not be more incandescent. To cut to the chase: what really happened in Kursk? Was the Russian Ministry of Defense caught napping? Or did they see it coming and profited to set up...
  • @Wokechoke
    @James of Africa

    Apparently according to the Guardian the Russians only won Kursk, 1943 because the British intercepts of Ultra warned them. Lol.

    Replies: @James of Africa, @Philip Owen, @awakening observer

    This is about right. Even with many weeks of precise forewarning (due to German delays) the Soviet Union still lost 5 tanks to 1 Axis tank. It wasn’t exactly an easy victory. Using LOL is stupid.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Philip Owen

    No one could have anticipated a German strike into the Kursk Salient…right. Luckily the Russians dug in there and flooded the area with antitank guns.


    The normal pro western argument is that the Allied amphibious landings in Italy required Hitler to redirect the elite SS divisions to Italy, thus decisively shutting down the German push on Prokorovka.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  • More sense than usual for an Escobar column until the mention of Stalingrad. After that simply copium.

    • Replies: @Che Guava
    @Philip Owen

    I agree. It's far better than his 'BRICS dah dah dah Axis of Resistance lah lah lah New Non-Aligned Movement doo doo doo Belt and Road Initiative rah rah rah SCO moo moo moo Global South blah blah blah' etc. fairy tales, like in the current front-page article.

    If he had allowed Mr. Unz to set up a Pepe chatbot, the above is exactly what it would produce.

    Not that two or three of those are not important and worthwhile phenomena, but I don't usually even read Pepe's articles because he is so trapped in an ancient (early '70s?) leftist Cold War mindset.

    Replies: @JR Foley

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the dramatic developments in the American presidential race and the second on striking revelations produced by...
  • @QCIC
    The Kursk incursion makes little sense as any kind of conventional military mission. Standard purposes such as military gain, political disruption, precipitating a Kremlin palace coup or general-purpose psyop are all dead ends.

    I am wondering if the raid was a bold and insane suicide mission? The official purpose would be capture of the Kursk nuclear power plant. This capture would be followed by an ultimatum to the Kremlin with a very short deadline. Fighting would ensue and the plant would be intentionally caused to have a meltdown and a dual Chernobyl-style catastrophe. Russian strikes would be blamed and the giant brouhaha would be used as an excuse to draw in NATO and others as military quasi-peacekeeper/humanitarian aid on a large and rapid scale.

    This might actually be a pretty workable long-shot plan as long as Russia does not know who really instigated it. Even with a nuke meltdown the Kremlin still does not really want to nuke Kiev.

    I suspect Russia really needs to grow a pair and nuke Dnipro. It seems to be a (((Ukrainian))) power center and such a strike might shake a few people out of their murderous delusions. Some suspect that Chabad is either behind this entire Ukraine mess or if not, surely they know who is and must be forced to end it immediately.

    Replies: @AP, @Philip Owen

    It is not necessary to capture the NPP to shut it down. It has shut down. There are transmission lines just about in fire control distance even now.

    The area is full of useful secondary targets. None war winning but all disruptive. The gas compressor/monitoring station is one. Not destroying is better leverage over Hungary than actually destroying it. A railway to Belgorod has been shut down.

    The transmission lines, another railway, road junctions around Kursk, airfields are all within or potentially within fire control if not occupation. Meanwhile, Russia has to guard them all.

    None of this is decisive but could be, at least in the battle for Kharkiv, if neglected.

    There is of course the political advantage of occupying Russian land.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    I understand all this but I don't think it outweighs the downside of likely punishing Russian strikes on military sites in Ukrainian cities. I believe some Ukrainian commanders and leaders recognize that Russia has been sparing Ukraine.

    I have been expecting this sort of attack and have been puzzled that Russia did not declare martial law a long time ago. I guess if they declare martial law and bad things happen anyway they look worse. The situation reminds me a bit of this sci-fi clip, starting at 2:23. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ9_zBs3Z-A

  • @QCIC
    @sudden death

    I am against a global nuclear war and never claimed to be a pacifist. AP is in a delusional nationalist mental bubble with a "Russia bad" mindset. He cannot realize that this conflict is the West against Russia and is only peripherally about Ukraine. The West against Russia is a nuclear conflict for many reasons which are recognized by sensible and non-brainwashed adults. Ukraine is just a pawn. Its master is playing a very dangerous game with Russia and China and eventually someone flinches or does something drastic. The raid into Kursk is a hint of more drastic possibilities. My role is to foreshadow important catastrophes before it is too late.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123

    It is not The West against Russia. It is Russia against The West. Russia doesn’t matter much unless you are Russian.

    • Troll: Mikhail, S1
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Philip Owen

    I like this.

    NATo can just go home and nobody will care!

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Mikel
    @Philip Owen


    Russia doesn’t matter much unless you are Russian.
     
    You are right. I don't remember having read or heard the word 'Russia' in the American media since 2016 one single time. Also, it's pretty clear that the eastward expansion of NATO after the Cold War ended was just a protection measure against the Iranian and North Korean threats.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Derer
    @Philip Owen

    You are suffering from little England (do not count with Scots or N.Ireland) losing any importance. You better move from that island, it is on Russian target list.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @LondonBob

  • @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Philip Owen

    It is obvious it was meaningful to the Russians. Unlike the Americans and the British they put their lives on it.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Which illustrates how well the FSB selected and trained xenophobic paranoids. The Stavka too. It is sensible to see capability as a threat. It is not sensible to see capability as intent without actual evidence.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Construction of the US missile intercepter site in Romania started in 2013, so the intentions of the West were crystal clear by 2013 at the latest. Emplacing advanced intercepter missiles at a former Warsaw pact base over the objections of Russia has no other interpretation. It demonstrated intent to pressure and ultimately attack Russia. We can argue about all the more subtle aspects but this basic fact is not controversial. The excuse about defending Europe from Iranian attack is just a childish fig leaf. There were also many hostile actions against Russia before 2013.

  • @Mikhail
    @Philip Owen


    You are factually wrong. NATO explicitly rejected Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008.

    I was able to ask the former security planner for the UK, in the company of two Russian colleagues, in 2003 about the potential for cooperation with Russia over terrorism and NATO membership (we were applying for NATO Science for Peace money at the time). She was quite clear that there were concerns about Russia’s commitment to democracy even then. At the time I thought she was wrong and Putin was a positive influence. How wrong I was. Even when Putin’s mask came off in February 2004, it took me years to come round. Not until the 2012 presidential election in Russia was I wholly convinced Russia was becoming irreconcilably fascist.

     

    Russia isn't the county honoring Bandera. Regarding your NATO projection:

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_8443.htm

    NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Without Membership Action Plans until they qualified so meaningless propaganda.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Philip Owen

    It is obvious it was meaningful to the Russians. Unlike the Americans and the British they put their lives on it.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Mikhail
    @Philip Owen

    You're oh so full of shit. Words have meaning. Russia was omitted.

  • @Mikhail
    @Mr. XYZ


    I don’t think that it’s purely this factor. After all, Russia-Western relations were much better in the early 1990s, and yet Transnistria was still unrecognized. Heck, Russia-Western relations were OK until 2014, and yet the West never seriously considered recognizing Transnistria’s independence.

    The same also goes for Nagorno-Karabakh, Somaliland, et cetera, none of which have as close of an association with Russia.
     
    Post-Soviet Armenia has never recognized Nagorno-Karabakh's independence or it being part of Armenia. We know about Kosovo.

    Russia-West relations weren't so okay in 2014 c/o neocon/neolib influences. Under Yeltsin and Putin, post-Soviet Russia sought NATO membership. Russia was the first country to console the US upon the 9/11 tragedy.

    NATO has been dominated by anti-Russian elements. In 2008, NATO pledged to get Georgia and Ukraine in NATO with Russia left out.

    The US military industrial complex benefits from having a bogeyman to draw more money. Russia is a convenient target because it doesn't have significant lobbying clout in the US to the degree of those harboring anti-Russian views.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    You are factually wrong. NATO explicitly rejected Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008.

    I was able to ask the former security planner for the UK, in the company of two Russian colleagues, in 2003 about the potential for cooperation with Russia over terrorism and NATO membership (we were applying for NATO Science for Peace money at the time). She was quite clear that there were concerns about Russia’s commitment to democracy even then. At the time I thought she was wrong and Putin was a positive influence. How wrong I was. Even when Putin’s mask came off in February 2004, it took me years to come round. Not until the 2012 presidential election in Russia was I wholly convinced Russia was becoming irreconcilably fascist.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Philip Owen


    You are factually wrong. NATO explicitly rejected Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008.

    I was able to ask the former security planner for the UK, in the company of two Russian colleagues, in 2003 about the potential for cooperation with Russia over terrorism and NATO membership (we were applying for NATO Science for Peace money at the time). She was quite clear that there were concerns about Russia’s commitment to democracy even then. At the time I thought she was wrong and Putin was a positive influence. How wrong I was. Even when Putin’s mask came off in February 2004, it took me years to come round. Not until the 2012 presidential election in Russia was I wholly convinced Russia was becoming irreconcilably fascist.

     

    Russia isn't the county honoring Bandera. Regarding your NATO projection:

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_8443.htm

    NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  • @A123
    @Derer



    DC got nothing. The Veggie-In-Chief’s administration is against hydrocarbon expansion. To the extent the LNG sector benefited, that was a blow to the White House occupant’s regime.
     
    liquefied gas (LNG) imports: the United States have increased its slice of the EU gas market
     
    It helps if you read what I wrote. I kindly refer the gentleman to the answer I gave some moments ago.

    Everyone knows that the current regime is a foe of the hydrocarbon industry. U.S. LNG winning = DC losing. Stop being silly with your "DC got something" fabrication.

    If it was not an industrial accident, the perpetrators were European. The most obvious winners were German Greens and Ukraine, followed closely by Poland. Thus, they are the most likely criminals if sabotage was the cause.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen

    Russia was so certain it was the British at the begining.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Philip Owen


    Russia was so certain it was the British at the beginning.
     
    Powers capable of deploying military assets (e.g. U.S., Russia, UK) would have easily achieved 100% success. They can be excluded as the NordStream events were far short of that:

    • 50 miles of geographic separation
    • 17 hours apart
    • Only 3 of 4 tubes destroyed

    As it was not a major military, that leaves:

    -- Industrial accident
    -- Smaller nation, such as Ukraine
    -- Non-state, such as German greens

    No one has been able to pull definitive evidence off the sea floor. If there was a failed attack on the 4th tube, the unexploded device or non-critical damage would have been found by now. Any sabotage plan should have targeted all 4 as they run in adjacent pairs. Why leave 1 out?

    This strongly suggests an industrial accident. However, there is no way to definitively exclude a small action team (e.g. Ukrainian irregulars, German greens) that ran out of resources and/or time. We will probably never know for sure, unless someone involved comes forth with details.

    PEACE 😇
  • @songbird
    @A123


    I have been reading older books of late.
     
    It is not just that newer books are woke. There has been a decline in writing. And Mr. Hack hasn't updated us on whether he read any more Heinlein, or any other scifi classics. Or seen any scifi movies.

    Was reading more Bujold and gosh it was a slog. She introduced a love interest that was a married woman with a kid, and it seemed very feminist and like she was partly writing herself into the story.

    You don't have any more old scifi books you'd recommend, do you? I enjoyed reading that Berserker one, but I think the series declines after that.

    The last scifi series I completed was Pournelle's Janissaries, but the last book was semiposthumous and the story doesn't end. And I consider one of the cowriters or the editor Weber to be woke.

    Will George RR Martin ever finish A Song of Ice and Fire?
     
    Not unless he takes up a ghostwriting partner or AK's plans for radical life extension come to fruition early.

    I think that's the peril of reading one of these series with an overarching plot, before it is completed. Better when the books are at least semi-independent. I.e., each one is a story in itself, even if they are connected or the character has a progression.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    I haven’t seen much discussion of Brunner’s work on this site. Stand On Zanzibar was his most popular work but he had a lot of others. They were well researched in terms of the science. Brunner’s family owned Brunner-Mond, a salt works, one of the founding companies of Imperial Chemical Industries for long the UK’s leading industrial company. He was a researcher for the BBC science program Horizon. He was of course a trust fund leftie but his books go beyond that.

    • Thanks: songbird
  • @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You are obsessed with a non-existent timeline...:)

    Why don't you post any official Russian statement where they say '2.5 weeks'? You are making it up because the coming loss is so painful. This is an infamous technique in the Western propaganda: say something you claim the other side is doing and then quote yourself endlessly...a sad collapse in rationality and honor.


    even gotten to the city limits of Kharkiv
     
    Another stupid one (you and Mr.Hacks). Why would they take Kharkov? A big city that would get destroyed in the fighting where a large part of the population is pro-Russian. What would be the point?

    The point in a war is to destroy the enemy - all else is secondary and follows from that. Ask yourself: is Russia destroying the Ukie army? How long can they last? Russia destroyed Germans and their allies in Stalingrad, Kursk, Belarus in summer 1944... - that left too little to defend Germany. That's how you win wars. Russia did the same to Napoleon Frenchies in 1812, and Sweden, Poland, Ottomans. So how long can Kiev last?

    Replies: @Mikhail, @John Johnson

    You are obsessed with a non-existent timeline…:)

    I’m not obsessed with someone else’s failed timeline.

    I mention the 2.5 week timeline as it makes a mockery of this war.

    In youtube video comments it is common to see jokes about the 2.5 week war. Only on Unz and a few other websites does Putin have any sort of following that seems to not get the joke.

    Why don’t you post any official Russian statement where they say ‘2.5 weeks‘?

    It’s based on leaked plans and I already posted the source a dozen times.

    The plan was a decapitation attack. Similar to a coup whereby they remove the government and get the military to stand down. That is where the 2.5 week plan comes from.

    You are free to believe that the leaked plans were a conspiracy or fake and they just tried to take an airport near Kiev using Spetsnaz and over 200 attack helicopters as a negotiating tactic.

    When this war is over I guarantee there will be books from Russians on how Putin and his corrupt generals were idiots for thinking the Ukrainians wouldn’t fight back.

    Another stupid one (you and Mr.Hacks). Why would they take Kharkov?

    Because Putin considers it a Russian city just like Odessa even though it is majority ethnic Ukrainian and backed Zelensky. It’s on his wish list. For someone that defends Putin you miss a lot of his comments.

    But if you think the Russians can’t take a city that is less than an hour from their border then that is a fine position. I don’t have a problem with it. MacGregor/Whitney/Ritter/Pepe all however believe that Putin will be taking most of the country with Ritter even claiming that a massive secret army is about to attack….any day now.

    The point in a war is to destroy the enemy – all else is secondary and follows from that.

    I would describe that as an oversimplification that can be false. There have been wars where the goal was to take territory or remove a government and killing the enemy was a secondary priority.

    Ask yourself: is Russia destroying the Ukie army? How long can they last? Russia destroyed Germans and their allies in Stalingrad, Kursk, Belarus in summer 1944… – that left too little to defend Germany.

    Yes we all know about WW2. Sometimes Russia wins, sometimes they grossly underestimate the enemy (Crimean war, Russo-Japanese war, WW1, Polish-Soviet war, Winter war, Afghan invasion).

    Anyone who thinks Russia always wins on manpower isn’t paying attention. That is in fact their historical weakness. They assume that they will win on numbers and don’t even bother to study the enemy. For example in the battle of Tsushima they didn’t know the Japanese had an advanced type of shell until they were hit by them. The British were fully aware of them and had observers on board. The Russians have a habit of thinking they can just show up and win. Then they learn about the enemy’s tactics and either adjust (WW2) or not (WW1).

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    I asked for any official Russian statement where they say ‘2.5 weeks‘...you responded with 'you can read it in YouTube comments' and about some unverifiable 'leaked plans'.

    Seriously? Can you imagine the other side using similar 'evidence'? I am skeptical of leaks. Nothing like that is published unless it serves the purpose to fight Russia to the last Ukie who can hold a gun. You got nothing, the "2.5 weeks" is a made-up bulls..t.

    NS2 'private act' is not credible without NATO knowing and approving on some level. Nobody would believe it about Russian or Chinese 'private' citizens engaging in war acts - it is automatically assigned to the governments. It may occasionally be true that it happens, but not in NS2 case - it had too high a visibility.

    I already explained to you that it makes no military sense to attack Kharkov. If Kiev loses the war Kharkov will not be sustainable. To destroy it and kill a lot of Russian-sympathetic civilians serves no purpose. You are mixing up long-term objectives with tactics.


    The point in a war is to destroy the enemy – all else is secondary and follows from that.

    an oversimplification...where the goal was to take territory or remove a government and killing the enemy was a secondary priority.
     
    In an 'existential war' without destroying the enemy you can't achieve the other goals. This is an existential war for both sides - but not for NATO. If you missed that, do some reading. Same goes for the NS2 - it is not credible that anyone would blow it up without NATO agencies not knowing and approving. Nobody would believe

    Russia has always won existential wars. One exception was WW1 (partially) - unique situation with Bolshies, civil war, Western invasions...it hardly applies unless you think Russia will have a revolution. It won't.

    The forces used in the latest attack on Russia - that's what trying to move NATO to Ukraine was - are inferior to the previous Western attempts. NATO will not risk its own people and that only leaves the Ukies. Russia is also internally stable and has the manufacturing might of China. This is not a hard to call: NATO overreached and the Ukies are being sacrificed. But if you enjoy the boom-boom show I can't help you.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Mikhail

  • @Mikhail
    https://www.rt.com/russia/602602-georgia-saakashvili-ossetia-treason/

    Georgia lays blame for 2008 war with Russia

    Tbilisi instigated the conflict with Moscow “on instructions from the outside,” the country’s ruling party has said

    Former Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili was responsible for the country’s conflict with Russia in 2008, and acted on instructions from external forces, the ruling party in the former Soviet state has said.

    The five-day war erupted on the night of August 8, 2008, when US-backed Saakashvili sent troops into Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia, shelling a base used by Russian peacekeepers who had been in the republic since the 1990s.

    Then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a “peace enforcement” operation in response, which led to the defeat of Tbilisi’s forces. On August 26, Moscow recognized the independence of South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia.

    The political council of the ruling Georgian Dream party said in a statement on Tuesday that a public legal process was necessary to establish “who committed a treacherous crime against our country and people [in 2008].” This was required in the interests of long-term peace and stability, the party stated.

    "The majority of Georgian society rightly doubts Saakashvili’s adequacy. However, the fact is that Saakashvili’s reckless actions in August 2008 were not a result of his mental instability, but a result of the instructions from the outside and a well-planned betrayal,” the statement read.

    Georgian Dream did not identify the external forces that it claims directed the actions of the Georgian president 16 years ago.

    Last week, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said the government would address the Prosecutor’s Office, the Constitutional Court, or set up a parliamentary commission to look into the events of 2008. According to Kobakhidze, Saakashvili, who is serving a six-year prison sentence, could face additional charges of treason over his role in the conflict with Russia. Such an offense carries a maximum punishment of life in prison.

    Saakashvili was voted out of office in 2013 and fled to the US. He also has a Ukrainian passport, which he obtained during a brief stint as governor of the country’s Odessa Region in 2015-16.

    The former president was detained in October 2021 after secretly returning to Georgia during an election in the country. The authorities in Tbilisi accused Saakashvili of abuse of power, organizing attacks on political opponents, embezzlement, and other offenses during his time in office between 2004 and 2013.

    The 56-year-old has remained in hospital in the Georgian capital since March 2022 due to deteriorating health. Saakashvili insists that the prosecution is politically motivated. His lawyers claim that the politician, who has lost a significant amount of weight in custody, is not receiving adequate medical care.
     

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    No one disputes that Saakashvili ordered Georgian troops to pursue South Ossetians raiders burning Georgian farmsteads across the border at night. During the day, Russian “peacekeepers” protected them. I have never had an adequate explanation why the first person the South Ossetians assassinated was the head of the Russia “peacekeeping” mission. Smuggling seems to have been involved.

  • From a YouGov poll: Dr. Rachael Gunn, the hilariously inept Australian academic who somehow got a free trip to Paris to compete in Olympic breakdancing, embodies the Anglo spirit of childish egomania. Obviously, I could never at any age have qualified for any Olympic sport, not since the abolition of the Plunge for Distance. While...
  • @Bardon Kaldian
    @AnotherDad

    You are so completely wrong it would take too much time to address everything.

    Britain was the empire superior to Germany in air & naval force & undefeated, it would have been squeezing continental Germany's dominance until it collapsed, one way or another. Even without the German-Soviet war. Even if it took 20-40 years.

    Essentially, the type of society Hitler envisioned was doomed from the beginning- especially with Britain as the lodestar for-imperfect- freedom.

    Hitler could have won only if he first developed nukes & bombed everyone from Ireland to Urals into submission- and even that victory would have been temporary.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    As you say, Britiain had the technical edge. Britain/Canada had its own bomb under development before the Manhattan project. They handed over 40kg of partially enriched uranium. Without the US it would have been ready by 1947. The Hiroshima bomb was loosely the British design. The Lancaster bomber was capable of delivering it.

    By 1941 the British alone outproduced Germany in weapons. There was also Canada and India.

    5m Indians volunteered for the army. 3.5m were chosen. The British 14th Army with 1.2m Indians and other Imperial troops conducted the largest, longest continuous action of the war (of history so far) sweeping the Japanes out of S E Asia. They might otherwise have ended up in Europe.

    • Disagree: Colin Wright
    • Replies: @Torna atrás
    @Philip Owen

    Living in Japan I was often aghast at the basic scientific illiteracy of even the most educated people. Not in the sense of pseudoscience (though it’s definitely there in spades), but just in “Where the hell did you come up with that notion?”. Note that these weren’t farmers or office salarimen, but automotive engineers and designers who had an ostensible technical education and went to high schools with a strong core curriculum.

    Then I started to realize it had a cultural component as well. It seemed weird because one rather takes for granted the wrong-headed crap of their own culture like water off a duck’s back (like not swimming an hour after eating, or not going out into the cold after showering).

    It’s all basic human principles that only seem really different because of cultural priors (i.e. we’re all not very scientifically minded as a species, but how our rationalization processes work are colored differently).

  • @AnotherDad
    @Peter Akuleyev


    Great Britain actually is the right answer. They could have easily negotiated peace with Germany after Dunkirk, in which case Nazi Germany would have sat prettily in Europe and then pursued a one front war against the USSR at a time of their choosing, very likely winning.
     
    I've got other stuff to do today, but c'mon.

    "Britain" is only the answer in this "let's not have a war" sense. The Brits could never have issued guarantees to Poland and just stayed out. Or--as you refer to--Halifax could have prevailed in the May 1940 crisis** and negotiated a peace treaty with Hitler. With Britain out, the US would likely not come in--barring Germany backing Japan and declaring war.

    Of course, the reason Churchill was opposed to Halifax's peace offer was because Britain was being supplied by the United States and Churchill expected--correctly--that he and Roosevelt would eventually bring the United States fully into the War. Churchill wasn't in it to lose it. Though the effort ended up being very costly to the UK and effectively finished off his beloved British Empire.

    **Here's the wiki on the May 1940 crisis for folks here who haven't read anything about it:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_British_war_cabinet_crisis

    Moderns tend to forget how powerful the British Empire still was in 1939. It was not the cuckolded UK we know today. They had the combined industrial strength of the British Isles, Canada, Australia and South Africa at their disposal plus the manpower and resources of the British Raj and the African colonies.
     
    We're living in the 19th century now?

    Obviously, the Brits were powerful but their industrial economy and war making capability was inferior to Germany's.

    Heck, they were stalemated in the Great War
    -- with the French on their side
    -- with the Germans fighting the Russian Empire on the eastern front, until 1916
    -- without the Japanese tearing through their Asian possessions
    -- with a starvation blockade on Germany
    -- with the US supplying them and the Germans unable to commit to unrestricted submarine warfare only because of worry about bringing the Americans into the war
    and it still required the American Army to show up to fully collapse the German side.

    The Brits--and everyone else, but the Finns--had already defaulted on their Great War debts to the United States.

    The British Empire contained 25% of the world’s population.
     
    You mean India. 70% of that 25% is India. India has had a huge population and economy for a long time--basically since agriculture took off there. But it was a subsistence economy. Almost all of it is feeding and clothing and housing 100s of millions of Indians. India had no surplus capability to supply the ships and planes and tanks required to defeat the Germans and Japanese. (In fact the War--and crappy British policy--brought on India's last great famine in Bengal and killed a few million Indians.)

    Or do you mean the 80 million British Empire Africans? LOL. At least the Indians can produce something and fight.

    Because this "alignment of forces" question is interesting, there's actually a wikipedia page aimed right at it:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_in_1939

    Brass tacks, the Brits have 70 millionish white people (UK48, C12, A7, NZ1.5), the US has 133 million in the 1940 census, so figure 120m whites. And the Americans are considerably richer, higher living standards, more advanced industry and a much, much greater industrial surplus--to build the ships and planes that were decisive in the War.

    The US supplied the Brits on a cash basis early on, which was quickly exhausting the British Empire's gold reserves. The Americans then switched to lend-lease--effectively both supplying and financing British war effort.

    And Japan quickly defeated the British fleet in the Pacific and gobbled up its East Asian possessions and without the US entrance was a credible threat to Australia and--speculating but likely--absent the US with a different "political atmosphere", would likely have seen the defection and independence of India.

    ~~

    In physics we make models and look at boundary conditions. Obviously all three of the great powers where necessary for the relatively quick--though quite bloody--victory. But you can mentally try taking each one out in turn and model what happens:

    -- Remove UK--only US and Soviet Union
    This really ugly but doable. The US keeps the Japanese occupied--as it did. It can supply the Soviet Union--as it did. And it can defeat the German Navy U-boats and impose a starvation blockade on Germany--which it eventually did. What is lacking is the UK as a platform to bomb German industry and launch an invasion. It would be a quite tedious process for the US--likely starting in Africa. This scenario would probably have ended with the US nuking German cities. (The biggest issue with removing the UK is the political one. The US likely doesn't enter a German-Soviet war without the UK, unless Germany declares war upon us after a Japanese attack. Not sure that happens if the US wasn't already supplying the Brits and sinking German U-boats.)

    -- Remove the Soviet Union--only the US and the UK.
    This is also really ugly but doable. Basically, the US and UK would have to bomb Germany into submission and the war would likely end only with a coup in Germany or the US nuking German cities.

    -- Remove the US--on the UK and Soviet Union.
    This looks untenable. The UK sits impotent on their island, they can blockade Germany but they can not get the supplies they themselves need, through the German U-boats. Even if they can get enough food through from Canada, they can't actually prosecute the war against Germany. They certainly can't help supply the Soviets with anything. Meanwhile Japan runs absolutely riot, though Asia, perhaps invades Australia. They'll likely be an Indian uprising for independence. (Not that Indian production matters much.) Japan free of attack from the United States--if they really seek a new world order--attacks the Soviets from the East and that would likely be the end of it. The only hope here is that Japan does nothing and the Soviets are able to slowly grind down Germany without the UK able to do much. Or one or the other develops nukes before the Germans.

    The bottom line: It is US war production--especially it's ability to crank out incredible numbers of ships and planes--that is the critical element in the War. Without that Germany and Japan eventually triumph.

    There is a reason it was called "the American Century".

    Sadly, post-War Americans allowed this minoritarian infection to fester, grow, metastasize to the rest of the West and it is degrading and destroying Western civilization from within and waving in invaders from without. The victory in the War now looks hollow--a fool's errand. And the 21st century looks most likely to be a Chinese one.

    Replies: @Bardon Kaldian, @Reg Cæsar, @Mr. XYZ, @Peter Akuleyev

    You are so completely wrong it would take too much time to address everything.

    Britain was the empire superior to Germany in air & naval force & undefeated, it would have been squeezing continental Germany’s dominance until it collapsed, one way or another. Even without the German-Soviet war. Even if it took 20-40 years.

    Essentially, the type of society Hitler envisioned was doomed from the beginning- especially with Britain as the lodestar for-imperfect- freedom.

    Hitler could have won only if he first developed nukes & bombed everyone from Ireland to Urals into submission- and even that victory would have been temporary.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Bardon Kaldian

    As you say, Britiain had the technical edge. Britain/Canada had its own bomb under development before the Manhattan project. They handed over 40kg of partially enriched uranium. Without the US it would have been ready by 1947. The Hiroshima bomb was loosely the British design. The Lancaster bomber was capable of delivering it.

    By 1941 the British alone outproduced Germany in weapons. There was also Canada and India.

    5m Indians volunteered for the army. 3.5m were chosen. The British 14th Army with 1.2m Indians and other Imperial troops conducted the largest, longest continuous action of the war (of history so far) sweeping the Japanes out of S E Asia. They might otherwise have ended up in Europe.

    Replies: @Torna atrás

  • My niece did qualify for the British Olympic training squad as a floor gymnast. However, girls tend to develop a rebellious phase at thirteen and a half. She lost her enthusiasm for turning up in the gym at 6 am 5 days a week. As a mother of two now, she can still do double somersaults. I reached home international in rowing strokein a four (let’s say interstate in the US) even that took huge effort.

    Most of the sports listed require hand-eye-object coordination that I for one could never deliver. Hence rowing. The heights are only available to a talented subgroup.

  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here are my two most recent articles, the first on the dramatic developments in the American presidential race and the second on striking revelations produced by...
  • @songbird
    @Torna atrás

    Don't know if this is really the right idea, but I get the feeling that part of the reason that Malaysia is so diverse is because Malay is kind of a late-formed ethnic identity.

    It is a pretty crazy-looking country (400 mile gap) or would have been if it had existed before modern times. And in the land itself, jungle can be difficult to travel through or conquer. The Malays themselves were only latterly moving into some of these areas and Malayizing the people, when the Portuguese, Dutch, and British showed up.

    Probably, many parts were not densely-populated or had a strong identity and so seemed very open to settlement.

    Burma is probably somewhat similar, and might be in civil war now.

    Replies: @Torna atrás, @Philip Owen

    In preindustiral times, water transport mattered. The countries around the North Sea all speak Germanic dialects (The East of England might have done so in places pre Roman). The Slavs came into place along rivers.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Philip Owen

    In preindustrial times water transport was safer without big crocodiles in the water.

    Water transport is still dominant. The road part of Belt and Road is a pie in the sky.

    There is a fellow on this site who posts this gif of maximum crocodile habitat and loves to repeat his slogan that Nile crocodiles kept negroes away from civilized people and made civilization possible to begin with.

  • @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Yes, Russian space capabilities have decayed enormously since 1991 and are weak over Ukraine, but I wasn't referring to their tactical satellites in that comment. My understanding is they still have additional satellites monitoring other parts of the globe and watching for launches and communicating with Russian military assets. They also still have the Glonass constellation. More satellites over Ukraine would help Russia, but the game changer would be to take key Western satellites out of the picture as I mentioned in another post. Hopefully it will not get to that point.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Yesterday, Mishtustin announced a plan to create a satellite building industry. They plan to build and launch 250 satellites a year at competitive prices by 2030. No specific kinds of satellite mentioned. Clearly a lost industry.

    Satellite building is not the same as launch capacity. The UK has satellite capability next only to the US (France is comparable). The UK does not have a launch vehicle.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Interesting, this doesn't make sense to me. Russia should continue rebuilding their own satellite manufacturing capability, but I doubt it is a good international market for them. Perhaps they have an indigenous advantage in radiation-hardened electronics and want to capitalize on it. Maybe they want to sell satellites to African countries. They can sell launch and satellite services together.

  • @LondonBob
    @Dmitry

    You can't concentrate forces as they will be seen and destroyed. The Ukrainians attacked with as many as could be deployed there without being spotted. Of course Russia is specifically avoiding mass mobilisation as they understand the economic element of the war with the West is even more important than the military.

    I think a return to a more traditional form of warfare, rather than mass conscript armies, is a positive.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Dmitry

    The Ukrainians went in light and have been stopped on most axes of advance. No one knows their original objectives but my guess is that their maximum objectives might have included the E38 and the road out of Martynov to the edge of Kursk. This triangle would give them fire control over enough roads, railways and transmission lines to make a difference to the war especially at Belgorod without taking any heavily defended point by storm and siege. They haven’t done it and I guess that it is too late now. The threat though should draw a lot of Russian resources there.

    Gerasimov may have been right about no more than 1000 troops on the first day.

    If the army take charge, it’s an invasion and legally a war. If the FSB border guard are in control, it is a border skirmish and a state of war with all the legal ramifications (and maybe deals with the US/UK/DE) does not exist.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Philip Owen

    The Ukrainians went in light and have been stopped on most axes of advance. No one knows their original objectives but my guess is that their maximum objectives might have included the E38 and the road out of Martynov to the edge of Kursk.

    That's similar to what I was thinking. Take down some of the interchanges and fill the roads with cars. Tank crews are trained in such tactics.

    Scorched earth tactics can really slow the enemy if they have limited roads. You can tie up a highway for months if done properly. In theory they can go around but once the rains return it will be a mess.

    Going in that deep only makes sense if you are there to destroy something. A purely psychological campaign could have been done without going all the way to Kursk.

    They could have a plan to lock up an entire area with a combination of this attack and HIMARs. Something is definitely up and this is not a "battle of the bulge" type desperate attack as Putin's fans want to believe.

    , @LondonBob
    @Philip Owen

    The first wave was NATO, or rather 'The International Legion', using NATO equipment only they know how to use. Second wave Ukrainians. They hoped to reach the Kursk NPP, they failed. Second objective was to seed long range demolition teams, maybe they have been capture and killed, or maybe they are still hiding, anyway the Sudzha gas pumping station is still intact.

    Typical US tactics to use 'cavalry' when there isn't air support. Anyway they have no means to supply. Once they stopped, they are dead. Russians should have guarded the border with more than just conscripts though.

  • @Philip Owen
    @songbird

    The Commonwealth won 53 gold medals out of a total of 175 so I guess King Charles wins.

    Replies: @songbird, @AP, @Torna atrás

    If you include the rebellious American colonies it is total Anglo domination.

    • Agree: Mr. XYZ
    • LOL: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Gerard1234
    @AP

    Lance Armstrong - typical American scumbag drug cheat

    Marion Jones ( and her husband)- typical American scumbag drug cheat

    Mark Macguire, baseball home run record - typical American scumbag drug cheat

    Florence Joyner - something - typical American drug cheat ( not proven but died of blatantly steroid connected reasons very young)

    Simone Biles - " I have ADHD so I take tonnes of steroids so American retards can claim I am great"......openly American scumbag drug cheat.

    These are the Pindostanis who "reached the top" gained hundreds of millions in advertising money from typical American nauseating "backstory" ....but were filthy cheats the entire time.

    No sane person should believe the American medal tally. China won.


    Anyway, the Soviet Union defeated America, America plus the Commonwealth all time you thick dickhead.

    The difference now is that openly cheating is allowed because of Olympics coming to America....and of course American scum control the entire doping agency and Olympics.

    Replies: @LondonBob

  • @songbird
    How accurate is this purported Chinese tweet on the Africa end? (I realize they must have made it before the final event)
    https://twitter.com/DrewPavlou/status/1822801207439905074

    Should Ash Sarkar use this cream?
    https://twitter.com/historyinmemes/status/1823137388467773575

    Why did these refugees apparently fleeing from Ukraine not leave their backlavas there?
    https://twitter.com/BGatesIsaPyscho/status/1823124745363005472

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen

    The Commonwealth won 53 gold medals out of a total of 175 so I guess King Charles wins.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Philip Owen

    It is curious how medal wins don't seem to scale with population very well, hence Australia, NZ, and Canada vastly outperforming on a per capita basis.

    , @AP
    @Philip Owen

    If you include the rebellious American colonies it is total Anglo domination.

    Replies: @Gerard1234

    , @Torna atrás
    @Philip Owen

    It all began with The Commonwealth Immigration Act of 1948.

    British Nationality Act 1948 set a precedent.

    The beginning and the end.

    Replies: @Torna atrás

  • @QCIC
    @Dmitry

    I agree with your description of the combat in Ukraine and the question is why is it happening this way? My answer is this is the first superpower war and is extremely dangerous due to possible nuclear escalation. Russia knows this and is being cautious while the West has forgotten about the searing danger.

    For a long time superpower meant military power which means countries with a full nuclear weapons capability and therefore has little precedent compared to anything before 1945. The requirements are an excessive number of nuclear warheads, a full nuclear triad of delivery systems and extensive space surveillance capability. This means the superpowers are the USA, China and Russia. Arguably Russia has the strongest nuclear triad but is also the most vulnerable. They are vulnerable in the sense that so much of their cultural, civilizational and historical energy is concentrated in Moscow and Saint Petersburg and therefore at risk from a saturation attack. There is nothing comparable in the USA. The USA could be destroyed as a functioning country and the central cultural idea might survive. I'm not sure where China stands in this framework.

    The Western project in Ukraine crossed all Cold War red lines long ago. By crossing these lines the West made it clear they are not worried about nuclear weapons use, implying they are prepared to use these weapons against Russia in a first strike. Russia mentions nuclear weapons publicly because the West is playing a dishonest game by not mentioning them. NATO in Ukraine is fundamentally an issue of nuclear war. I think this is a very tough problem for the Russians since the West has abdicated reason.

    This Western project against Russia seems very satanic and I think some people involved actually want to use nuclear weapons. As the saying goes, "If you can't use them, why have them?"

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    Russia’s space surveillance capability had collapsed. At the begining of the war it had only three satellites in position all using the visible spectrum. So at best they were getting images half a day apary. (This was stated in the Duma). So, for example, they couldn’t see Ukraine supply trucks at night. Military communication satellites and Glonass were in similar states of decay due to cheaper and better commercial competition in all three cases. Remember pilots with US GPS in the cabin. There have been launches to correct this but electronics, optics, guidance systems and launch vehicles don’t appear instantly. Russia was not at the superpower level in the practical use of space. The French did better. Russia has improved.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Yes, Russian space capabilities have decayed enormously since 1991 and are weak over Ukraine, but I wasn't referring to their tactical satellites in that comment. My understanding is they still have additional satellites monitoring other parts of the globe and watching for launches and communicating with Russian military assets. They also still have the Glonass constellation. More satellites over Ukraine would help Russia, but the game changer would be to take key Western satellites out of the picture as I mentioned in another post. Hopefully it will not get to that point.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  • Russian ammunition production was preserved relative to the rest of the military due to the need for ammunition during the Chechen wars, 2014 and Syria. Even so, in 2019, Rostec was in 5th place in Europe for ammunition production. Shoigu claimed a 7x increase in 2023 and there are now claims of a 17.5x increase.

    The European manufacturers are BAe Systems, General Dynamics, Rheinmetall and NAMMO. All are expanding mightily. Near me BAe Systems is moving from one shift to 4 as fast as people can be trained and adding 50% to the shell filling area. So a 6x increase. NAMMO shared a power line with a data centre and couldn’t expand. Rheinmetall and NAMMO are building completely new factories and all three are promising factories in Ukraine. So far as Soviet calibres are concenrned, Bulgaria has reopened an old factory with assistance from BAe Systems. Yugoimport in Serbia is selling shells on the market. French production is low but they plan new factories.

    It is likely that in 2023, Russia’s production exceeded European deliveries to Ukraine because there were more idle production lines and recently skilled staff. By the end of the year this was not true. It will not be true now as US shells also arrive. Ukraine had too few shells to field its whole army. Now it can send in new freshly equipped brigades not restricted by munitions supply. This changes the salient towards Pokrovsk from the Russian advance being proclaimed last week to a self built cauldron for the Russian army, Anyone seen F16s in action against glide bombers yet?

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Why does any sane person want to give more ammunition to Ukraine? There is no upside in this for the people of Ukraine. If somehow this new ammo magically puts Russia on the ropes, then she can simply escalate from the current practice of largely avoiding key military targets in the interest of protecting civilians, to a more drastic position of attacking the most critical targets ASAP and simply ignoring collateral damage in the interest of self-preservation. If the AFU has no fuel, food, command structure, intel and what not, having a bunch more shells buys them nothing but tears.

  • @Mikhail
    @Philip Owen

    Like much if not all of the mainland US with a whataboutism regarding Israel as well.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    I don’t entirely disagree. Siberia and South China come into such a category too.

    How long counts. The Church counts 3rd cousins as relatives, so great, great grandparents? The Iriquois said 7 generations. The Irish are still killing each other over the 1640s. The Ostseidllung was in the 14th C and Russia and Poland still ethnically cleansed the German population.

  • @Mikhail
    @John Johnson

    Many armed conflicts don't go as planned. The overall gist of his piece masks the extreme problems the Kiev regime is having when compared to Russia. Russia got hit in Kursk. Russia is adjusting and will prevail.

    From a friend -

    Just talked to my Russian friends in different cities. There is no panic. Only a frustration with the Collective West propaganda and support of the Kiev regime. Russian TV shows Kiev regime vehicles and captured soldiers.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    All of 50 people turned out for VDV day in Saratov on 2nd August this year. Usually there are hundreds. During the Z frenzy before the Ukrainian counterattackes in September 2023, thousands. Draw your own conclusions.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Philip Owen

    That you faultily cherry pick in a Brit establishment favoring way on Russia-Ukraine matters. Keep dreaming an impossible dream into reality.

  • @QCIC
    @Mr. Hack

    This is not complicated, try to stay with me.

    Russia does not want to destroy Ukraine. Russia wants NATO out of Ukraine both militarily and in terms of political meddling.

    Russia does not have a large enough military to overwhelm Ukraine and take it with low civilian casualties. It is not just the AFU, but also the size of the country and the sheer number of people. Probably Russia has the ability to destroy Ukraine as a functioning country by a shock and awe style campaign, but this is not on the menu...since Russia does not want to destroy Ukraine. Such a strategy is also the most likely to prompt greater NATO involvement.

    The Russian military is gradually chipping away at Ukrainian targets. Ukraine has already attacked the Kremlin, Ingels Air Base and strategic radars. They also shot down a Russian plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners and also attacked a civilian concert. Russian authorities may not like the Kursk incursion, but I doubt they are surprised. All of this is expected in a conflict with hundreds of thousands of deaths. In the meantime Russia is strengthening her economy and building up her ground forces. To me the plan seems to very gradually do the following: grind through AFU forces, make Ukraine tire of the project and recognize their role as a pawn, make NATO weary of the project and slowly build up Russian strength.

    I don't think NATO will drop this project and even Trump may not be able to call it off. In that case it may continue until either the Ukrainians get mad at their puppeteers or Russia gets strong enough to defeat the AFU (including NATO help) more decisively or maybe some of both. I think the current play is to let Ukrainians stew knowing the Winter of 24-25 will be tough due to reduced availability of electric power and natural gas. Russia may hit more of these targets, but that requires a tricky balance since they want Ukraine to capitulate, but also do not want a massive humanitarian crisis in the event of a cold winter.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @A123, @Mr. Hack

    NATO wasn’t there. Russian incompetence from 2004 (yenot 14) onwards invited NATO in but still it didn’t enter. Ukraine was refused an action plan for membership in 2008. That decision still stands. NATO Was never there. The UK was there after 2014 fulfilling its Budapest Treaty obligations very modestly. UK is not NATO.

  • @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    No. I don't think the DPR/LPR "deserve" anything, except maybe that the West not have meddled in their country and performed a coup which intentionally caused a bloody civil war.

    Your original question is ridiculous, since you seem to frame the issue as a choice the republics made between two competing offers with the implication that Putin did a bait and switch and came back with a weaker offer after the republics committed. In reality they see themselves as Russian and were looking for brotherly help from Moscow when people in Kiev began violently repressing them with the apparent goal of driving them out, genocide or something else along those lines.

    I don't think they want independence from Moscow, probably they want support. The steel and coal and other heavy industries have mostly been supplanted by China and India while the Ukies were cavorting with the West and will never return.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @A123, @Philip Owen

    40% of the 7m in the Donbas were ethnic Russian settlers all arrived since 1879 so hardly a traditional Russian territory. The Wild Lands were too dry outside river valleys for settled agriculture until pumping technology of the 19th C, often imported by (now geonocided) German settlers from the US.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    There is a lot of history in the region which knowledgeable people like to argue. Nothing I have seen gives the West the prerogative to intentionally stir up trouble between Russia and Ukraine, risking a nuclear WW3 in the process. This project is about the West wanting to crush Russia. This near-primal urge was held in abeyance during the Cold War. After 1991 some Western leaders felt they had the upper hand and their blood began to boil with anticipation. They are eager for all hell to break loose.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Derer

    , @Mikhail
    @Philip Owen

    Like much if not all of the mainland US with a whataboutism regarding Israel as well.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Gerard1234
    @Philip Owen


    40% of the 7m in the Donbas were ethnic Russian settlers all arrived since 1879 so hardly a traditional Russian territory
     
    From expedition setup by Peter the Great, salt was discovered by Russians in the Donbass in early 1700s you dumbfuck. That is a long time before 1879 .

    WTF are you going to claim New York is by the same timeframe you malignant freakshow?
    Salt was arguably as important in 1600s/1700s as coal was in the late 1800s. Pugachev's rebellion was tangentially connected to the salt issue you moron.

    Don Cossacks, and regular Russians have lived there for centuries more you retarded sack of shit. All regarding themselves as Russians, Russian authorities regarding them as Russians, and the whole world regarding them as Russians living on Russian land you idiot. Its amusing the schizophreniaat a time when no thing as "Ukraine" or "Ukrainians" exist to claim the Zaporizhian Cossack as "Ukraine" ( nearly all their descendants in Russia now).........but braindead claim Don Cossacks are "not Russian", LMAO!!!

    agriculture until pumping technology of the 19th C, often imported by (now geonocided) German settlers from the US.
     
    The last part is simply not true you shameful, 70 year old incel freak. Don't know where to start from the issue. Will say something else - Baron Haussman and Paris.

    40% of the 7m in the Donbas were ethnic Russian settlers all arrived since 1879 so hardly a traditional Russian territory

     

    I know human dogshit as yourself married your own mother......but are you too thick to recognise that practically 100% of Donbass population have some Russian blood in them?
  • @Beckow
    @Philip Owen

    Orthodox Brotherhoods and Putin have nothing to do with your wildly hateful and lying WW2 post - that was all about Russia. Don't hide it, it is transparent that you hate them with every fiber in your body. Did you by any chance lose money in Russia? Or are you too thick to understand WW2?

    I will remind you: WW2 started with British-French Peace Treaty with Nazi Germany in Munich 1938. It preceded M-R by one year. Then when Germany attacked Poland and proceeded to murder about 20% of Polish population, Britain stood back because the goal was to get Germany to attack Russia and Poland had to be moved out of the way.

    Britain sat on its hands for 3 years 1941-44 and only when it was obvious that Russia defeated Germany, the Anglos staged the 'Normandy landing', about 1/10th of the size of the simultaneous Russian Bagration offensive in the east.

    You can't admit to the two-faced British WW2 policy so you instead created a myth. That is a form of a mental disease...I suspect the root cause in your case is either thick-headed stupidity or pure hatred of Russia. Probably both.

    Replies: @AP, @Dmitry, @sudden death

    Philip Owen is a friendly businessman who supported investment in Russia and was employing Russian workers. He was probably helping the local region.

    There were some articles about him in Russia, as he was supporting the opening of a Western hotel chain.

    You currently see his old employees are advertising on the Saratov job website, as I guess they are becoming unemployed because of the reduction of his business.

    • Thanks: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Dmitry


    ...friendly businessman who supported investment in Russia
     
    Investing is not about friendship, it is about making money. So don't give us the soft PR release about someone who wrote some bizarre hallucinations about WW2 Russia. It is not Saratov (who cares?) but about the lying version of the past that this 'Philip Owen' character concocted in his mind. Do you agree with it?

    Look it up, it is above. Some highlights:

    "Russia did not win WW2 as you seem to imply....The USSR started WW2..." And some completely incoherent nonsense about how it was Russia that 'broke a Treaty' and attacked Japan i. 1945...Right, all we need is this Owen guy posting a picture of Hitler and Tojo - as the poor victims of the Russian 'aggression'. If you agree with him, fine. But it is rather vile stuff.

    , @Gerard1234
    @Dmitry


    Philip Owen is a friendly businessman who supported investment in Russia and was employing Russian workers. He was probably helping the local region.

    There were some articles about him in Russia,
     
    WHAT is wrong with you? There are and were always articles in Russia about ANY western dickhead giving the appearance of trying to help improve business in Russia for the last 30 years. Post-soviet world was full of western failures and parasites as Phillip Owen. Same with any western cult, and western thing.....Just as Scientology and Jehovah's Witnesses were thought of innocently as positively western introductions, so too useless shithead businessmen from the west.

    What successful investments did this retard Owen have in Russia in all this time? Who is his Russian business "protege". He is like Browder and Khodorkovsky ( lowlifes but still far higher in the foodchain than the slug Phillip Owen)........after not being in favour with the top or important people in Russia and/or forced to go west - these scum haven't ONE business success in western world, which says everything about their true business "talent".

    The only question is if this anti-Russian dogshit Phillip Owen is from the parasitic British upper classes trying to exploit post-soviet Russia......or of faux-socialist background who also thought this connection would allow them to exploit post-soviet Russia.

    He is just your standard brit shithead scumbag failed businessman. Anything this weirdo 70 year old incel trashbucket touches turns to shit.

    The scale of the lies and incompetence from this anti-Russian vermin is astonishing. He said the Russian meat production market was going to collapse this year or last......LMFAO, abysmally wrong as the completely opposite has happened ( consumption also is up). Same this with the egg supply production ( where there were some issues a few months before)-LOL - WRONG again. Same with EVERY single item, this lying POS tries to say the same thing. It's simply abnormal to have such a tramp propagating this vile anti-Russian drivel.

    Clearly all these types of failed businessmen vermin were "directed" by their masters from the beginning when they came to Russia. Owen is a liar but it's incredible that there doesn't appear to be ONE of these western post-soviet "businessman" who were scammed doing business in Ukraine, or so frustrated at the business climate that they left.....who have directed this experience into saying stuff anti the Ukrainian state. Not one.
  • @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Can you expand on this: "..and the Orthodox Brotherhoods who run the FSB and their spin on Russian history."

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    The Orthodox Church has men’s groups, sometimes called Orthodox Brotherhoods, most of which are perfectly innocent ways for men to be attached to church social life.

    When the Soviet Union fell, the way for senior officials to retain their status by expressing loyalty to Russia while rejecting communism became Orthodoxy. Yeltsin always had a priest at arms length when he appeared in public. Senior offiicials gathered in particular Orthodox Brotherhoods, particularly connected to monastries. The Russian Orthodox Church is a breakaway from Constantinople on the Anglican/Catholic model, the original Metropolitan bishop having been in Kyiv. At times there were merger talks withthe Anglicans. Long buried from memory now. It has a very state centred Russian nationalist interpretation of history.

    One example of a Brotherhood is the Dontskoy monastry (Malofeev, Girkin, Dugin, Chaplin and others) another is associated with the Valamm Monastry in a lake on the old Finnish border near St Petersburg. Putin attends formal events there occassionaly. The Donstkoy Monastry Brotherhood is the group that pushed for and organized the 2014 incursion into the Donbas. One of Malofeev’s agents asked me for 30,000 pairs of army boots in 2012 (with hindsight for the incursion). This was two years before the Maidan protests.

    • Thanks: QCIC
    • LOL: Mikhail
  • @Philip Owen
    @Derer

    The Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic were won in 1940. Hitler wasn't going to win a duel with the British Empire after that. Germany was blockaded. Germany's only access to raw materials was Russia via Iran. The UK alone outproduced Germany with weapons in 1940. Canada was quite industrialised too as was India. 5m Indians volunteered for the army with little prompting. Without Japan they would have been useful in the West. After 1940 it was a matter of time (1947) to build the British-Canadian A bomb using gas diffusion for enrichment. The Manhattan Project had access to more urainium and used centrifuges so had a bomb earlier than the British could.

    Replies: @Greasy William

    Which goes to show that Hitler’s decision to invade the USSR was strategically correct. If Germany didn’t destroy the Soviets and gains access to its materials for itself, Germany was going to lose the war.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Greasy William

    Which goes to show that Hitler’s decision to invade the USSR was strategically correct.

    Not sure how you can describe a total disaster and loss of all gains to a war of two fronts as strategically correct.

    If Germany didn’t destroy the Soviets and gains access to its materials for itself, Germany was going to lose the war.

    You do realize they were buying those materials from the Soviets? And that Stalin was happy to sell it to them? Stalin wanted the Western powers to fight with each other as he profited from both sides.

    Trains from both sides were actually going across up until the day of the invasion.

    Hitler's chief economist opposed the invasion because he didn't believe the gains would outweigh the status quo of trading with them. He was concerned the USSR would be left in ruins and they wouldn't make up the difference by looting.

    There were other ways to get oil that didn't require attacking the USSR.

    But in all fairness it probably would have worked if they picked either Moscow or Stalingrad and stuck to the plan.

    Replies: @Greasy William

  • @Dmitry
    In Russia, there has been a lot of news about a disaster last week in Nizhny Tagil, when an apartment collapse, believed to be caused from domestic gas explosion, killed 10 residents.

    It's relevant to the general discussion two threads past (https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-254/#comment-6666898) about the solution of the housing crisis in the USSR and the prefabricated apartments, when I almost discussed the disaster in Magnitogorsk which killed 39 residents on New Year 2019.

    Soviet engineers have designed this housing with a 30 year life span, as the Soviet Union planned to replace the housing every 30 years. And in the postsoviet space, many buildings are now 60 years old, without replacement. Not just the gas safety, but probably the building itself should not be collapsing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FexqhS5yuFo

    The videos in Tagil remind of the collapse of the house in Astrakhan in 2012 which was caused by a gas explosion after one of the residents in an apartment was intentionally killing themselves, but they accidentally killed 11 of their neighbors as the nearby apartment collapses.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjKH6zzsqdg

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Whole towns were built with aparments designed for childless couples with a view to rebuilding again in a few years. Then they didn’t rebuild.

  • In Russia, there has been a lot of news about a disaster last week in Nizhny Tagil, when an apartment collapse, believed to be caused from domestic gas explosion, killed 10 residents.

    It’s relevant to the general discussion two threads past (https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-254/#comment-6666898) about the solution of the housing crisis in the USSR and the prefabricated apartments, when I almost discussed the disaster in Magnitogorsk which killed 39 residents on New Year 2019.

    Soviet engineers have designed this housing with a 30 year life span, as the Soviet Union planned to replace the housing every 30 years. And in the postsoviet space, many buildings are now 60 years old, without replacement. Not just the gas safety, but probably the building itself should not be collapsing.

    The videos in Tagil remind of the collapse of the house in Astrakhan in 2012 which was caused by a gas explosion after one of the residents in an apartment was intentionally killing themselves, but they accidentally killed 11 of their neighbors as the nearby apartment collapses.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Dmitry

    Whole towns were built with aparments designed for childless couples with a view to rebuilding again in a few years. Then they didn't rebuild.

  • @Beckow
    @Derer

    This Owen guy is a 'Welsh' piece of sh..t with a pathological level of Russia-hatred. It makes one wonder how common it is in UK, I haven't seen it that much among regular people. But among their homo-twits it is very widespread, something to do with envy.

    It is just sour grapes and helpless hatred, these latter-day 'we won WW2 on Normandy beaches' idiots are irrelevant. They only make their countries look bad.

    Wasn't the murderer who triggered the latest UK riots from Wales? I know he was a darkie, but then most Welshies are not exactly white-looking, with all that coal-mining-slavery in the past. Maybe he fit right in.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    I set up my business exporting from Russia, later advising on trade and investment with Russia in 1994. After 2014 I had to fire my employees from full time jobs but business did not end until the present war with Ukraine.

    I have no hatred of Russia or Russians. Quite the contrary. I am very disappointed not to continue my work. Most of my best friends are Russian. I am very hostile to Putin and the Orthodox Brotherhoods who run the FSB and their spin on Russian history.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Can you expand on this: "..and the Orthodox Brotherhoods who run the FSB and their spin on Russian history."

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Beckow
    @Philip Owen

    Orthodox Brotherhoods and Putin have nothing to do with your wildly hateful and lying WW2 post - that was all about Russia. Don't hide it, it is transparent that you hate them with every fiber in your body. Did you by any chance lose money in Russia? Or are you too thick to understand WW2?

    I will remind you: WW2 started with British-French Peace Treaty with Nazi Germany in Munich 1938. It preceded M-R by one year. Then when Germany attacked Poland and proceeded to murder about 20% of Polish population, Britain stood back because the goal was to get Germany to attack Russia and Poland had to be moved out of the way.

    Britain sat on its hands for 3 years 1941-44 and only when it was obvious that Russia defeated Germany, the Anglos staged the 'Normandy landing', about 1/10th of the size of the simultaneous Russian Bagration offensive in the east.

    You can't admit to the two-faced British WW2 policy so you instead created a myth. That is a form of a mental disease...I suspect the root cause in your case is either thick-headed stupidity or pure hatred of Russia. Probably both.

    Replies: @AP, @Dmitry, @sudden death

  • @Dmitry
    @Beckow


    Welshies are not exactly white-looking,
     
    I guess I am missing the surreal Prague humor?

    Of course, they appear not much different than English, Scottish and Irish people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmGLWMJpZLM

    Generally, after the romantic epoch in Europe, small nationalities often created a exotic identity, with the help of philology, lack of critical thinking, mythology and 19th century pseudosciences. These national identities are later helpful at least for the travel industry and writers of tourist brochures.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Northerners. They use Llefrith for milk for example not Llaeth as God intended .

    For those trying to map the English to the Welsh, it’s tricky. The verb, often a complex construction, comes first. Adjectives follow nouns French style and as she explains, spelling changes. Also, it’s not possible to answer with a Yes or No and sound literate.

    Wales was somewhat ahead of the Romantics. It was the first industrialised nation in the world (over 50% working in industry. It may also have been the most literate country in the 18th C but only in Welsh. So it already had what 1840s nationalist movements in Northern and Eastern Europe, also Ireland set out to build. Some used Wales as a model, even Catherine the Great. Wales used “Circulating Schools”, travelling schools, to make best use of scarce teaching resources. Catherine had this idea adopted in parts of Russia to boost peasant literacy.

    That said, much national “tradition” owes its origins to a laudunum (opium) addict called Iolo Morganwg in the late 18th C and two aristocratic ladies who between them moved the cultural level of the language to a stronger level by reviving classic literature and poetry beyond the gentry. In Wales it was the wealthy who had kept medieval traditions alive. The common people had turned protestant. In her spare time, Lady Charlotte Guest also ran the world’s biggest iron works including major innovations in steel making. So if the annual National Eisteddfod (Poetry/culture festival) which ends today after a week, seems a bit hallucinogenic in its clothing and rituals, there is a reason.

  • @Philip Owen
    @Beckow

    Russia did not win WW2 as you seem to imply.

    The USSR started WW2 in 1939 by invading 6 countries in collusion with Germany hich invaded one. The USSR ended up on the winning side throough no fault of its own. Russia is anyway only one of the 15 post USSR countries, only one of which, an unreconstructed dictatorship directly descended from USSR structures is any kind of ally. The western republics saw more fighting and higher losses than Russia.

    The USSR broke a non agression treaty with Japan in the closing days of the war, taking over half a million prisoners from an already exhausted army. This was done to create exremely favourable conditions for the Maoists to overthrow the Chinese government. The Japanese still regard this as betrayal.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Derer, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    There is no betrayal to speak off. Soviets were always Japan’s main hypothetical enemy to begin with.

    The Non-Aggression Pact was a detente and response to M-R Pact. Then Germans failed to give notification ahead of Barbarossa.

    But if Germans had sacked Moscow or Stalingrad then this would have went down.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kantokuen

    This was done to create exremely favourable conditions for the Maoists to overthrow the Chinese government.

    False. Soviets wanted profit from a stalemate between CCP and KMT.

    CCP victory was largely helped by turned over Japanese troops and American intervention.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Mission

    • Thanks: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Torna atrás
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    "He raided Pearl Harbor, is what he did! He was a brave Japanese admiral! And in this house Hideki Tojo is a hero! End of story!"


    https://youtu.be/jqj4PZKkBRo?si=Uok7s20hnnLMxpmr

  • @QCIC
    @AP

    From the fundamental nuclear weapons perspective, this is really the first serious war of the nuclear age. Comparisons to earlier conflicts may be completely misleading. Since the fate of humanity may rest upon how Russia plays her cards I am glad to see that the leaders in the Kremlin appear cautious.

    If the USA had used nukes in Korea or Viet Nam I think that would have been one-sided without any nuclear response from Russia or China. The situation in Ukraine is much more serious, since the West made this a nuclear conflict from the get go by terminating nuclear arms control treaties and placing missile sites in Eastern Europe.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    serious war of the nuclear age

    I’m not sure by which criteria it is can be called “the first serious war” since 1945.

    In terms of strategic importances? It’s a postsoviet border conflict, about borders of parts of the USSR which have already experienced multi-decades of decline.

    The quantity of equipment is very large, mainly because the postsoviet fragments are using wastefully the stocks of weapons created by the Soviet Union, a superpower and Ukraine also receives supplies from NATO.

    But the quantity of soldiers and their density is low. It’s a smaller density of soldiers than battles in the Iran-Iraq war, 1990 Iraq War, 2003 Iraq War, 1967 or 1973 Israel-Arab war, Vietnam War, Korea War.

    For example, this raid in the Kursk region’s border, is maybe using around 2000 Ukrainian soldiers so far? Originally estimated as less than a thousand.

    Russian army’s attacks on Ukrainian trenches, are usually using around 30-40 soldiers each time.

    After more than two years of war since 2022, the quantity of soldiers used in all the battles of the war is like a single battle during the Second World War, which could be compressed to a few weeks.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Dmitry

    It is the first serious war of the nuclear age because it is the first one which has a high risk of escalating to nuclear weapons use on both sides: Russia might use nuclear weapons to end the war and the West would use them as a foolish tit-for-tat response. An accidental escalation is more likely.

    I wrote:


    From the fundamental nuclear weapons perspective, this is really the first serious war of the nuclear age.
     
    I meant it was the first serious combat between Superpowers which could directly lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

    Russia got the bomb in 1949. After that the chance of mutual escalation was real. In the Korean and Vietnam wars the USA seriously discussed the use of nuclear weapons. Such a US first strike would have been a huge escalation but I doubt Russia or China would have retaliated with nukes. The Cuban missile crisis was tense, but was a mutual escalation without a serious war. Any use of nukes by Israel would most likely be one-sided as well. I don't think tensions between Pakistan and India (post-1998) have reached nearly the fever pitch as the West and Ukraine versus Russia.

    Nuclear weapons are powerful and are intended to prevent activities such as the West are doing in Ukraine. The USA is testing this entire theory of deterrence.
     
    Even a modest nuclear exchange could kill more people in a hour than died in WW2, with follow up starvation ten times that. We don't really know what or who is targeted or why. We have NO IDEA what minor mistake could lead to a chain of escalation which is too secret and too rapid to stop.

    This entire nightmare in Ukraine has been intentionally set in motion by the West, led by the USA. We need to stop it before it gets out of hand. Russia is not really in a position to stop it, since the West has clearly shown the will to continue and probably escalate the "dismantle Russia process" in other countries.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  • @Derer
    @Philip Owen

    I guess in your pathetic anti-Russian rage you believe that little England hiding in bunkers defeated the Hitler. Celebrated Normandy took place just few months before the war end; US opportunistically got the European spoils of the war and the seat at Yalta. Soviets offensive essentially defeated Germany by the time of Normandy. Historical events are documented by hundred self-serving lies.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Philip Owen

    The Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic were won in 1940. Hitler wasn’t going to win a duel with the British Empire after that. Germany was blockaded. Germany’s only access to raw materials was Russia via Iran. The UK alone outproduced Germany with weapons in 1940. Canada was quite industrialised too as was India. 5m Indians volunteered for the army with little prompting. Without Japan they would have been useful in the West. After 1940 it was a matter of time (1947) to build the British-Canadian A bomb using gas diffusion for enrichment. The Manhattan Project had access to more urainium and used centrifuges so had a bomb earlier than the British could.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @Philip Owen

    Which goes to show that Hitler's decision to invade the USSR was strategically correct. If Germany didn't destroy the Soviets and gains access to its materials for itself, Germany was going to lose the war.

    Replies: @John Johnson

  • @Beckow
    @Wokechoke

    These were Jap youngsters. Look it up, a survey done in 2016-17...

    You will not find any mention of US in any Jap official writing about the bombing. They don't mention who did it. The kids make assumptions, they are constantly told 'Russia was and is the enemy!'...Yes, bullshit...

    How many American young know that Russia liberated Poland and Auschwitz? How many know Russia won WW2?

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Philip Owen

    Russia did not win WW2 as you seem to imply.

    The USSR started WW2 in 1939 by invading 6 countries in collusion with Germany hich invaded one. The USSR ended up on the winning side throough no fault of its own. Russia is anyway only one of the 15 post USSR countries, only one of which, an unreconstructed dictatorship directly descended from USSR structures is any kind of ally. The western republics saw more fighting and higher losses than Russia.

    The USSR broke a non agression treaty with Japan in the closing days of the war, taking over half a million prisoners from an already exhausted army. This was done to create exremely favourable conditions for the Maoists to overthrow the Chinese government. The Japanese still regard this as betrayal.

    • Disagree: German_reader
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Philip Owen

    Beckow is full of shit about WW2, but you seem to be intent on outdoing him with this collection of stupid talking points. "The USSR ended up on the winning side throough no fault of its own." - lol, that could be said about Britain with infinitely more justice (not a moral judgement btw). Yes, present-day Russia is using the memory of WW2 for propagandistic purposes which can and should be rightfully criticized, but that shouldn't require resorting to such blatant distortions.
    And "Japanese still regard this as betrayal", when the hell did the feelings of whiny Japanese revanchists become something one is supposed to endorse? I don't think anybody from the war generation in Britain would ever have done that, given the Japanese record in treatment of pows.

    From your other comment:


    Turning on and off the tap will be more effective with Hungary and Slovakia.
     
    In other words, Ukraine (neither a EU nor a NATO member) could use it for blackmail against EU and NATO members that are insufficiently supportive. You've seriously lost the plot and succumbed to unhealthy war psychosis.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @Derer
    @Philip Owen

    I guess in your pathetic anti-Russian rage you believe that little England hiding in bunkers defeated the Hitler. Celebrated Normandy took place just few months before the war end; US opportunistically got the European spoils of the war and the seat at Yalta. Soviets offensive essentially defeated Germany by the time of Normandy. Historical events are documented by hundred self-serving lies.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Philip Owen

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Philip Owen

    There is no betrayal to speak off. Soviets were always Japan's main hypothetical enemy to begin with.

    The Non-Aggression Pact was a detente and response to M-R Pact. Then Germans failed to give notification ahead of Barbarossa.

    But if Germans had sacked Moscow or Stalingrad then this would have went down.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Hachi-Go_Concept_B%2C_1938-39.png

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kantokuen


    This was done to create exremely favourable conditions for the Maoists to overthrow the Chinese government.
     
    False. Soviets wanted profit from a stalemate between CCP and KMT.

    CCP victory was largely helped by turned over Japanese troops and American intervention.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Mission

    Replies: @Torna atrás

  • @AP
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    It’s the American Civil War analog.
     
    I said that long ago. Putin thought he would have a Czechoslovakia 1968 at best or a quick Iraq war 2003 at worst, but instead foolishly stumbled into the American Civil War.

    With two key differences that make the likely outcome much different:

    1. Ukraine (unlike the Confederacy) has a long land border with a generous supplier and ally (NATO) who provides it with better weapons than the enemy has, cancelling out much of Russia's advantage in weapons production.

    2. Ukraine's enemy (unlike the Union) can't bring its population advantage fully to bear because it can't mass mobilize. As a result, the two armies are of roughly comparable size on the ground.


    This is the Gettysburg project.
     
    It's an incursion into the North but not a reckless one. It seems to be done carefully, with fewer forces, and is not nearly as much of a gamble. So far it has yielded perhaps hundreds of prisoners, defensible lands, and the possibility of cutting a critical railroad at little cost.

    :::::::::::::::::

    As I've pointed out several times, never in the last 100 or so years has an invader succeeded if his invasion has lasted for more than a year. If the invader has failed to win within a year, he has either eventually lost the war (German invasion of France 1914; Russian invasion of Germany 1914; Germany invasion of USSR in World War II; USA invasion of Afghanistan; Soviets in Afghanistan) or has had to settle for some kind of draw (Korean War, Iran-Iraq War). I see no reason why this war would be different than every single other war in the last ~100 years. Most likely this one will result in some sort of a draw; much less likely, but possible, would be a Russian loss.

    Replies: @A123, @Philip Owen, @QCIC

    There are several useful objectives for Ukraine.

    The railway line, a supply route to Vovchansk.

    The gas compressor station. Blowing up a pipeline is something you can do just once. Turning on and off the tap will be more effective with Hungary and Slovakia.

    It is not necessary, even desirable to take the Nuclear Power Plant if it is even moderately defended. Russia will have to allocate resources to guard it. The transmission lines and transformers can be destroyed. According to Twitter, this compromises, 48% of Russian iron ore production, 18% of ferrous metal production and 19% of sugar beet processing, important in terms of food production and cost. Then there is power for the rail system.

    This is apparently a terrorist border incursion to be managed by the FSB rather than an invasion during war to be resisted by the army. This saves various faces. Sovereignty is not threatened so no rersort to nukes is possible, easing political pressure. It is not a war so conscripts are still out of danger of front line deployment.

    I saw a video of the VDV day parade in Saratov on 2nd August. There were barely 50 people there. I have seen many hundreds, perhaps low thousands. ‘Not celebrating may be a way of demonstrating opposition to the war. Using conscripts might be difficult, so terrorists not invaders.

    • Agree: AP, Mr. XYZ
  • Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag. For those interested, here’s my most recent article, a very long discussion of the very surprising political relationship between Presidents John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, as well as...
  • @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    I don't know if a throbbing Ukrainian internet porn industry really qualifies as tech. Kind of reminds me of the Turks raiding for pretty slavic sex slaves.

    The West killed off the ex-Soviet scientific and technical base in Ukraine for two obvious reasons, closely related to the general Western depredations in the country. The first is so that these economic sectors could not help Russia rebuild after 1991. The second is so they do not compete with Western companies. The worst case from a Western perspective is that Ukraine and Russia collaborate industrially and become a serious competitor in tech areas. While the West successfully fought this in the Russian-speaking world they were actively creating an even bigger competitor in China. Of course Russian people and technology were a huge boon to China after 1991.

    Many of the top Ukrainian S&T professionals left to the West so they contribute there but leave a huge intellectual vacuum. That leaves Ukraine open as a low cost production center, but not as cheap as China and India. What to do?

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    In the businesses of which I had direct involvement, mostly optoelectronics, the South Koreans extracted more people and technology than the EU or US. I don’t think it was deliberate goverrnment direction by anyome.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    Many individuals from the FSU went to places where they could make a new life and this process was organic. Nonetheless, I suspect some of the Western planners of the collapse of the Soviet Union expected that this would create an S&T diaspora which would weaken the new Russia. Moreover, governments in the West made a serious effort in the 1990's to recruit ex-USSR military scientists. At the time this was largely intended to keep them out of China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and other places. I don't think this goal was accomplished, but the recruiting did have a benefit for the USA. By the 1990's, the USA was already staring to show the lowered competence from reduced standards in public schools and Universities. The skilled ex-Soviet immigrants probably held that problem in check for about 20 years.

  • @Coconuts
    @Philip Owen

    I read somewhere that Britain was the most strike-ridden country in Europe in the 1900-1914 period, not sure if its true but a lot of those concessions were made in response to rising labour militancy. The national TUC was established in 1868, Fabian Society in 1884, the Social Democratic Federation in 1884 and the Labour Party in 1893. In the late 19th-early 20th century the labour movement still tended to side with the Liberals, they were probably introducing these reforms in response to the growing social pressure, similar to the situation in Germany in the same period.

    In that time I think all European societies had to reckon with the two rising forces of socialism and nationalism, because of industrialisation and the emergence of mass society.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Until 1914, many of the trade unions, for example the miners, were syndicalist (worker control) not socialist, certainly not Marxist. Even after the general strike of 1926 they were not predominantly Marxist.