“Expansionism may have been an expression of the extraordinary dynamism of European civilisation but it has turned out to have been a fatal flaw. ”

No. Colonialism has been a pattern of human civilization and Western civ in particular going back thousands of years. The Greeks planted colonies all around the Med; Massilia/Marseille being one of the most successful. What the Euros did was a natural continuation. The problem was that the North American policy – exterminationist race war coupled with massive settlement and population expansion, leaving fragments of foreign population that cannot possibly pose a threat – was not systematically applied everywhere. For example had that been applied in Africa, to all Bantu populations, you’d have another USA-scale economy south of the Congo. And of course the American slaves should never have been decreed to be identical with whites.

And of course China – excellent imitators, always – is applying the North American policy to their own internal foreigners. Remains to be seen if their demographics will hold up long enough to let them start applying it elsewhere, but signs point to “no”.

The problem is a failure of identity – a failure to correctly identify “the other”; a refusal to believe that such a thing can exist. The bubble of unprecedented security imposed by Pax Americana is part of the cause. Christianity and its “there is neither Jew nor Greek” is another part. But Pax Americana is falling to pieces and Christianity is dying.

These problems solve themselves.

“This is not what we would expect if support for political dissolution was predominantly racial in motivation.”

On the contrary. It’s exactly the pattern racialist blogs have seen over the past 20 years. The lower the proportion of whites, the more exposed people are to diversity, the more they realize they don’t like it and become radicalized. Low radicalization in non-diverse places is the norm. They haven’t seen the problem up close so aren’t reacting to it yet. But when they do, the cause and the motivation is always derived from race and its consequences, and wouldn’t have happened without the racial factor.

This is basic stuff.

This is a moronic argument. It’s not random counties that need to be checked. It’s specifically the results from Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Milwaukee. Those were the four cities that swung the election. Any fraud only needed to happen in those four cities, where the political establishment is solidly D. Any potential fraudster could have been fine leaving everything else totally alone.

That there is or may be evidence of fraud in localities beyond those four cities does not make it necessary for the fraudsters’ goal, nor does it make fraud required in a wide enough selection of places to be detectable in random spot checks.

Nobody can think anymore.

White men are not the issue. Fraud is the issue. Trump won, so they manufactured enough votes to overturn his victory. If white men had voted for him in higher proportions they would’ve just had to manufacture more votes. This is not hard to do.

White men didn’t decide anything this time around. He bet that if he increased his POC numbers he wouldn’t need so many whites, and he was right. It remains to be seen if the Democrat bet that they could fake numbers to obtain whatever they wanted is also correct.

“How do ZOGgers reconcile this?”

Globalist elites are hypocrites, and believe many things that are not true, and act on those beliefs.

This is really not very complicated.

It’s the demographics, stupid.

Or to borrow a line from Hero of the People, Brenton Tarrant:

It’s the birthrates. It’s the birthrates. It’s the birthrates.

China imposed the one-child policy on itself. When and where China has lifted the one-child policy, the birthrates did not go back up.

China has thrown itself headlong into the demographic transition associated with the agricultural-industrial shift, without the slightest understanding of what they were getting into or what the consequences would be. Assuming no meaningful changes to current trends – and right now, on a global scale, the only meaningful errors in demographic predictions are for birthrates to be LOWER than expected – China will lose half its population over the course of the next hundred years.

China does not have the wealth to handle this. Industrial complexes building ghost cities can’t fix this and can’t handle the ongoing burden of the elderly and an inverted demographic pyramid.

China also does not have the honesty to recognize the problem in time to do anything meaningful about it – because it will require pointing out facts needing changing, facts which are a direct consequence of Communist party policies and therefore make the Communist party look bad.

Also the treatment must be very deliberately and unavoidably anti-communist. It’s not possible to fix society-wide demographic trends of this nature without devolving power to patriarchal heads of households, which the Communist party will not and can not tolerate.

I haven’t even started on the topics of China being a net food importer, of every single one of its neighbors being fearful and suspicious of it, of their demonstrated total incapability at diplomacy in situations not involving them just bribing or forcing others to do what they want, or even the plain fact that – strategic stupidity notwithstanding – the US military has 20 years’ worth of rotating pretty much its entire military corps through active tactical experience and the Chinese military does not.

China has a window to invade Taiwan that will be pretty much closed by 2030; their internal contradictions will have started catching up to them by then. They could have invaded Taiwan, probably successfully, 20 years ago. They haven’t yet – they’re still “preparing”. There’s a fair chance they’ll keep on preparing right past the point of no return, because a Communist bureacracy supressing criticism of itself will not become aware of the problems until it’s too late.

This glorification of China and desperate willingness to believe in the superiority of the alien enemy is one of the alt-right’s biggest flaws, and a symptom of the basic character flaws that will prevent the alt-right from accomplishing much of any of what it wants, just as they have contributed to the alt-right’s self-destruction over the course of the past four years.

I’ve become convinced that when sanity returns, it will be counter-revolution from within the Left.

“A charismatic American Indian populist standing up for middle America”

He existed. His name was David Yeagley a.k.a. Bad Eagle. He verbally smacked Bill O’Reilly around on national TV. He’s dead.

Fascinating. Not a single response. At least one comment pre-emptively disproved. And yet it happened.

It’s like you guys can’t let yourselves process the truth.

@vinny
“Indeed thought provoking as in, where’s the evidence of this? And who was doing the raping allied soldiers?”

It’s very well documented. The Russians made mass rape a systematic policy as they advanced.

“1. Never had a family or any kids.”

False.

This came out around 2006 or so. There’s this farmer in northeastern France, the son of a man who was the son of a single mother. She – the grandmother – had never talked about the grandfather much, just that he was a German soldier in the first world war – while that part of France was under occupation – and that he’d always been very kind with her. So farmer grandson (who has several siblings) decides, hey, we’ve never known who our grandpa is, let’s try and find out with this genetic testing stuff. Might get some vague hints or something.

So he does the test, sends it in, gets results back. “Um, your relative is well known. VERY well known.”

I remember it was all over the Daily Mail for a couple days, until farmer guy requested that the media keep it quiet and protect his anonymity because he didn’t want his farm getting turned into a neo-Nazi shrine. The media, for once seeing a privacy cause in complete alignment with their ideological objectives, fully complied. All further reporting of the story stopped.

But yeah: the descendants of Adolf Hitler are alive and well today, with families of their own.

This also, incidentally, torpedoes a whole class of lies about Hitler being homosexual, impotent, or anything else along those lines. They HAD to shut it down, and fast. The fact that it even got out in the first place was an indication it hit too suddenly for them to think through the implications.

I will add:

Blood type A has been observed to have significantly higher risks from this virus. Blood type O has been observed to have significantly lower risks. (This is because COVID is in fact a blood infection whose most visible symptoms occur when the blood goes to the alveoli, not a respiratory ailment, contrary to all the flubros and “it’s just a chest cold” liars.) Blood type A makes up about 30-40% of the white population; type O is about 45%. Just based on this one risk factor and disregarding others that may be discovered, it is entirely possible to have blood type O people be the asymptomatic or low-severity reservoir for it, shrugging and saying “it’s no big deal”, while blood type A die in droves from it each year, and this continues until there are no more type A to die from it. Darwin in action.

Writing off 30%-40% of the population of the nation – which the “just live with it” types are effectively doing – is flat out psychopathic, and anybody advocating that needs to be locked up.

Continuing your track record of willful dishonesty and mischaracterization about all this, I see. Every single thing you’re picking on was comprehensible by a functional adult.

>It’s nothing, stop being racist against the Chinese. Hug them instead.

Obvious ideology-driven wishful thinking which functional adults disregarded immediately.

>Wash your hands and sanitize inorganic surfaces to stop the spread.

Still a good idea.

>Don’t wear masks, they don’t help.

Advice given at the exact same time as various authorities were admitting extreme shortages of masks for hospital staff and absolute necessity that hospital staff be equipped with them; a necessity which has remained in place the whole time. If masks didn’t help, hospital staff wouldn’t be using them. Functional adults were and are perfectly capable of understanding that they were being lied to with this statement and why: because the authorities did not and do not trust the judgement of the public.

An estimation of the public’s reasoning ability that you are attempting to validate.

>The virus is far more deadly than the flu. Not many people have it yet, but it spreads fast so if many get it, millions will die.

Still accurate. My estimate from the start has been 2 million dead in the USA within one to one-and-a-half years. Without taking into account long-term health effects on survivors. We’re still on track for that.

>Actually, the virus doesn’t hang out for days on inorganic surfaces, it spreads through the air.

First part varies based on the nature of the surface and exposure to sunlight. Second part has been known since very early on (the Seattle choral superspreader event being a definitive example). Second part does not invalidate the risk from surface transmission.

>So duh, wear masks, they help.

Admission made after the supply to hospitals was secured. Which any functional adult could have understood on their own.

>Stay inside. We’re grinding the economy to a halt so there’s no point in going out, anyway.

Autistic retards, which either you are or presume your audience is, would take this literally. Functional human beings understood that spending time in the back yard or going for a walk in a national forest was not a problem; the point was to not go places where lots of other people are. “Stay inside” was the simplest way of communicating that.

>Actually, the virus spreads inside. Go outside, but don’t be in large groups of close proximity.

Conclusion based on additional data that doesn’t invalidate most prior observations.

>Excepting the aged and immunocompromised, the virus actually isn’t very deadly but lots of people have it.

Mischaracterization and misleading interpretation of data. Disregards long-term health effects of non-fatal serious cases, which was known to be a problem from very early on; misleading conclusion based on highly selective case selection (people at the protests were a selected population, largely young with lower mortality – and engaged in ideology-driven wishful thinking); false conclusion based on imprecise tests, many of which have not been proven to test specifically for COVID but might give positives for any random coronavirus.

>Large groups in close proximity are actually okay if the cause is righteous.

Obvious ideology-driven wishful thinking which functional adults disregarded immediately.

>Actually actually, social distancing is crucial. No large groups.

Still a good idea.

>And the employees from other hemispheres are a lot cheaper.

Would be true regardless of virus or not.

To all of which can be added: antibody immunity of survivors is currently observed to fade after a few months. If that result holds, and if the long-term health effects on survivors prove as deleterious as currently observed, this thing is going to keep sloshing back and forth through the population for years or decades, crippling people far beyond what any seasonal disease does and shortening lifespans each time, and the worst part is that it won’t outright kill the majority of those who get it so it won’t burn itself out until local governments get serious one by one about controlling it – which they will, because the costs to society of letting it keep going will just keep mounting and become absolutely unbearable. Absolute mortality, although a clear headline number, has never been the most serious problem with this, and that was absolutely clear to functional adults from the start.

AE, you are a damned liar, engaging in ideology-driven wishful thinking fully as delusional any leftist ideologue.

For the “with/of” discussion, I’ll let this nurse from Los Angeles who’s treated his own share of COVID patients dispose of you properly:

http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/04/co-morbidity.html?m=1

The short version is, you’re an idiot.

But what annoys me more is this:

” the all cause American death rate has been 3% higher than expected relative to all cause deaths from the same time period ”

“By this all-in metric, then, coronavirus has led to about 27,000 excess deaths nationwide,”

This is astoundingly dishonest.

According to all the antibody tests that have been run in the past few weeks, somewhere between 3% to 5% of the population has been exposed to it, except for NYC where it might be as high as 20%. The metric is therefore not “nationwide” by any stretch of imagination or word-meaning, nor is it a 3% increase.

All-cause death rates have DROPPED everywhere (not just in the USA: in every country for which data is available) the virus is not prevalent – due to the lockdowns; due to people not going out driving and having car accidents and falling off rooftops while trying to fix something and electrocuting themselves and getting stupid drunk in bars and all the rest of it. All-cause deaths go UP in areas where the virus is prevalent. The virus-attributable deaths are therefore the difference between the average under-lockdown – which is LOWER than normal – and the measurable death rates in the virus hot spots – which are notably higher.

Measure the virus-attributable deaths this way, as a percentage of the population of the virus hot spots, and a very different picture emerges than the one you are attempting to present here. Guess what: people have done exactly that. For example, Luca Dellanna’s article on Substack indicating that deaths in Bergamo were 4.5 times the number of a normal year, or the newspaper Corriere Della Serra’s article indicating that across northern Italy the excess death rate was 40% higher than what had been officially counted by the virus, or New York City’s numbers on the same topic indicating official numbers were undercounting by 40%-50%.

I’ve seen you crunch numbers enough before that I don’t believe this is an innocent mistake. You know exactly what you are papering over when you present things this way. You know exactly why it is wrong. You are doing it anyway.

You’re a liar.

Diversity Heretic is correct. The line about exporting countries switching to domestic markets is total nonsense.

Germany can survive it because they’re rich and honest. China is neither. China depends absolutely on the export market. They’re also a net food importer, by a notable margin. The collapse of the export market is going to hurt them worse than anything short of nuclear bombardment.

AE – mocking? Well, maybe. Yes, now I think about it, people living paycheck to paycheck, running everything on credit cards, finding home schooling their own freaking children to be an intolerable burden, completely unable to stick a “GONE FISHING” sign on the front door for a couple months, and absolutely willing to tempt others into danger as compensation for their own utter inability to prepare for bad times, are definitely a topic I find worthy of mockery. And it’s not weird at all.

I realize the entire country has been operating like this for living memory. That’s a reason. It’s not an excuse. I heard enough from the old folks about the 1930s to know what I ought to be doing, even when I wasn’t doing it. When I was a part-time retail shelf stocker in rural nowhere, or when I was deep in Blue America living the rootless urbanite life, no matter what, I had a pantry with several months’ worth of canned goods and a certain amount of cash and other necessities. That took me just a couple pay periods to set up, each time. I’ve wasted a crapload of money on stupid stuff, but I always made sure the basics were taken care of first. Anybody paying for a smartphone and a cable subscription has absolutely zero grounds to claim they can’t do the same.

This disease has not only revealed the fecklessness and incompetence of the American government. It has also revealed the fecklessness, incompetence, and self-indulgence of the American people, across the political spectrum.

When I was, I think, 17 or 18, I went to a young writers’ summer camp type thing. I remember the guys in my suite talking amazedly about something one of the girls was telling them about. She got tons of credit card offers, and she used them, and she’d buy herself all sorts of hugely expensive things with them – stereos, TVs, huge quantites of music, vacation trips, whatever. She’d pair them off: put an expense on one credit card, then pay it off with a second card next month, then the following month pay the second card off with the first, repeat forever. “And whenever I want something new, I just get another pair of credit cards!” The guys in my suite knew there had to be a catch somewhere but they couldn’t figure out what.

All America has been living like that girl. It’s goddamned stupid and it’s high time it stopped.

Mockery? Yes, absolutely. If they’re in a bad spot, it is their own damn fault.

For some crazy reason I expected the right wing to be better prepared for a situation of this sort. There was even a song about it – “A Country Boy Can Survive.” Well, for most of these jokers, THAT was a goddamned lie.

Do I sound annoyed? I guess I am.

Almost Missouri –

“Have there been any serious COVID outbreaks in rural areas? ”

Depends on what you mean by serious. Where I’m at, a Trump-voting agricultural area where the county seat is a city of ~50K, we had our first case mid-March, passed 400 cases a week or so back, with 20 deaths so far. The graph is a perfect exponential. Just need to see how long it tracks that.

I’m convinced that rural areas haven’t seen major problems yet just because it spreads slower there, not because it spreads slow enough for the people there to be safe. Things will become clearer in 2-3 months, I think. I’ll be perfectly willing to admit error if it fizzles. In the meantime, I’m working on the garden.

The Dem/Rep split is very easy to explain. Democrats are largely urban. Republicans are largely rural. The virus spreads easier in cities, so Reps can pretend it out of existence more successfully.

Also, Dems think government oversight is good, Reps think it’s bad, and there’s a prisoner’s dilemma at work here – “I need money so my business is staying open and my sincere regrets for anybody who gets sick as a result BUT I NEED MONEY” is a motivation that is fairly compelling, and governmental mandates are the only way to force general cooperation as opposed to selfish defections (“selfish” in the sense of the prisoner’s dilemma, not as a value judgement). Dems will naturally be more favorable to that, and Reps less so.

It’s a perfect storm. Logic and evidence will not enter into it until after the fact.

“Blame it on Democrats” ignores the more fundamental point. You can re-open, but that won’t get you anywhere, because the general public is going to be extremely cautious for a while. We’ve surpassed deaths from a bad flu YEAR in just six weeks, with only a fraction of the country exposed. “Resolved cases” in all countries with a major outbreak has been converging toward 20% dead – this neglects asymptomatic and minor/never-tested cases, of course, but that still leaves a very noticeable fraction. We’re guaranteed at this point to hit 100K deaths in the USA, with 200K fairly probable and 2M still very much in play. Until there’s some indication this thing is getting under control and/or has reliable treatment available, people will continue to be cautious.

Sailer has a story up about an axe-throwing place that reopened and got 2 customers for the whole weekend.

You can reopen the beaches and parks (and should) but that won’t fix the “but muh conomy” problem. Beaches and parks don’t drive the velocity of money up noticeably. Having somebody else prepare your food for you is a huge luxury. Running everything on debt works as long as you never stop running. Theme parks and cruise ships are pure disposable income. “Normal” life involves a huge amount of luxuries that, as a matter of plain fact, people don’t NEED to get by. The muhconomy is going to stay devastated until this gets taken into account.

Adjustments will have to be made and the sooner they get made the better. To borrow a line from H. Beam Piper, it is easier to banish a habit of thought than a piece of knowledge.

“Does anyone think that, three months out from the general election, anyone from either party is going to oppose extending them through the end of the year, or of even making them permanent?”

This is fairly likely, however, it’s also going to 1) massively inflate prices, 2) kill the bond market.

Depending on how long #2 takes (it’s been predicted for decades and hasn’t happened yet), we might live in wheelbarrow-wallet land for a while. But eventualy we can presumably expect 3) a banking collapse, 4) massive deflation.

Followed by a new currency designed from scratch. I propose copper dollar coins, for the anti-microbial properties, alloyed with just a little bit of gold for the magical voodoo homeopathic effect. Increase the gold proportion for the 5-dollar, 20-dollar, 50-dollar, and 100-dollar coins.

Thinking about it – we can put off killing the bond market for a while. Just announce that all Treasury bonds within certain specified ranges, WHICH BY A COMPLETE COINCIDENCE just so happen to be those currently held by China, are having their interest payments “temporarily” suspended “for the duration of the crisis” and that we’re sure everybody and most particularly our good Chinese friends will understand. (Oh, they’ll understand, all right.) Just make sure to do that AFTER pharmaceutical manufacture and rare earth processing has gotten going again somewhere in the continental USA.

Please, be more specific. What’s unrealistic? What is inaccurate in the characterization of present-day office work? What is impossible about the possibilities Clarey outlines? When I say physical presence is required only due to micromanagement, that’s based entirely on in-person observations over the past 20 years – observations of the behavior of the people setting policies, and of the productivity of team members working remotely, and of my own. And remote-working tech has gotten significantly better over that time.

As for the power fantasy – it’s only a fantasy if you can’t pull it off. It’s completely doable when you get around to negotiating salary and the like; the trick is always to get them to name a number first. That’s when they’re psychologically committed; they’ve decided they really want you. You can do a lot with that. And I’m not the only person I’ve seen getting serious about this sort of thing.

Everything I wrote is based on direct personal experience in corporate America.

On the topic of econoclysm, Captain Capitalism has a few thoughts.

http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-coronavirus-economic-revolution.html

TLDR: Most education is now functionally free for those with the motivation to go find it (who are the ones you want educated anyway). All office work should now be done remotely. All unused office buildings converted to housing. Price of housing drops, everybody saves time and money from no more commuting, everybody has more spare money to spend from not wasting it on college indoctrination, economy is turbocharged and we zoom forward into a glorious future.

He is absolutely correct that the commuter bullshit needs to stop, and should have stopped long ago. The only reason it hasn’t is management types (middle and upper) who are stuck on micromanagement and don’t know how to make sure things get done otherwise.

If I was in the job market right now – or at any time in the next few years – I’d be doing as many interviews as possible and then once they make me an offer explain that “oh, by the way, I’ll be working remotely, and if you’re not on board with that you can bump the salary you’re offering me by 50%”.

For at least a week in January, the number of daily deaths the Chinese were reporting was a precise 3.1% of the total new infections each day.

The following week, the number of deaths reported daily was 2.1% of the number of infetions each day. Not 2.2%. Not 1.9%. 2.1%. Every single day.

If the Chinese numbers are accurate, this virus – while in China – was capable of keeping track of its own new infections and calibrating its kills to match. Strangely, it lost that ability once it departed Chinese territory.

When they recently released updated numbers of dead in Wuhan, the new total was a mathematically precise 50% increase. Not 48%. Not 55%. 50.0%, rounded to the nearest whole number.

This entire article is premised on the idea that the Chinese are not lying and are not making up numbers out of thin air, which is demonstrably false.

The difference between East Asian and Euro-white society responses to this is due entirely to contact tracing and catching it quick, in non-liberal societies.

As for the bioweapon theory: nobody builds a bioweapon out of a coronavirus, because the one factor common to all coronaviruses is that nobody’s ever successfully made a permanent vaccine for one. So it would inevitably get out of control. If you release a bioweapon, you make damn sure you have an inoculation for yourself first. The one overwhelmingly clear fact right now is that the US and its military are totally unprepared for dealing with this.

There you go. I just demolished your whole piece in 1% of the verbiage.

As for the Tiananmen discussion – I see a lot of assertions along the lines of “nothing happened”, and no precise description of what, precisely, is alleged that DID happen. It’s been a long time since Tiananmen but I remember following the news closely at the time and there was zero doubt in my mind, based on the evidence available, that the Chinese had systematically killed off a bunch of troublemaking students. Like Kent State, but a few thousand times more so.

As for the embassy bombing, if all the facts alleged are correct, bombing it inentionally and then blandly lying about it sounds like a perfectly reasonable and justifiable thing to have done.

“Almost every relationship starts with casual sex. Like you hook up, then hook up again, then decide you like each other so it gets serious.”

This is raving lunacy.

It may well be that this is how a plurality or even a majority of young adults today believe it should or does happen. It may well be that this is how they are trying to make it happen. But belief is not reality, and such attempts are foredoomed. This type of behavior does not produce long-lasting and stable pair bonds and families.

The people who do NOT follow this path are the ones who end up with stable families.

You mention Florida. You don’t mention New Orleans. You don’t mention all the Florida spring breakers who’ve been proven to be a major vector spreading it all over the place. Etc.

More generally:

How to internet argue

You’re done.

@DannHessinMD

“things are very climate-dependent. Mexico and points south are hardly impacted. […] Globally the climatic contours are sharp.”

Uh, no.

Ecuador, with bodies piling up in the streets in a coastal city:

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-01/coronavirus-in-guayaquil-ecuador-bodies-in-the-streets

Philippines – tropical heat and humidity – with the hospitals already at capacity and refusing patients, and famine threatening:

http://comeandmakeit.blogspot.com/2020/03/manila-corona-virus-april-1-fools.html

Just as examples. There are more stories if you bother to look, even though the US media is not covering any of it. But if you choose to close your eyes to data you don’t want to see, of course you’re going to see the pattern you want.

These countries are reporting low numbers of cases because they have been doing low numbers of tests. It is just that simple.

The humidity theory has been disproven. It has provided essentially zero meaningful protection.

Disasters happen. Pandemics happen. The measures being implemented to couner this one are largely identical with the ones used in 1918, the primary difference being that they are being implemeted earlier and in a more widespread and coordinated fashion.

If the economy in general and/or certain types of small businesses in particular are not capable of surviving events like this, are they really that strong? Are they really worth preserving?

Is it really worth worrying about hothouse plants that only survive when times are good?

“The American Dream”, once upon a time, referred to a very specific concept: it was the idea of having your own house and land and being largely self-sufficient on it. That’s what Thomas Jefferson had in mind – a nation of small farmers. That’s what the Homestead Act was all about. That’s what “40 acres and a mule” was all about. That’s why people flooded across the Atlantic: to carve out their own piece of a largely-virgin continent and be INDEPENDENT.

There is no natural right to derive one’s existence from prosperity and safety, and attempting to depend on such circumstances is foolish. People who make their livings from restaurants and similar luxury goods (and make no mistake, having someone else prepare your food for you is absolutely a luxury) – if it works, while it works, good for them; but if they fail to make contingency plans for failure modes, that’s their own damn fault.

Be antifragile.

This is a very moving piece.

I’m a little late, but all the same, my condolences. You’ve done her proud.

Digital Samizdat – I speak French fluently, I have a fair number of relatives in France with whom I am in regular contact, I’ve been following local news and online discussions on this, and based on the information available to me I am satisfied that your characterization of the situation is not remotely accurate.

I keep seeing people saying variations on “the Democrats are panicmongering”.

Not one of them has ever addressed why practically every government in Europe is panicking too, including the right-wing ones. This insistence on “whatever the Democrats say, go with the opposite” is a fatal trap when it eventually runs up against the case when they’re telling the truth.

What motivated the comment is that I do not believe it is possible to make any statements with any accuracy whatsoever about the current prevalence of COVID-19 in, for example, equatorial Africa.

Ebola is highly visible and shocking and people notice it and talk about it. This is pretty nearly exactly the opposite, until it’s widely spread and everyone’s getting pneumonia at once.

As for the specific humidity issue, I did read your link, and the definition of R2, and I get it now. It certainly will not be clearly visible or intuitively obvious to most people. And “it depends 28% on [specific] humidity” is still a fairly moderate effect.

Regarding the humidity discussion:

Growth Rate Plotted Against Temperature and Humidity by Country | Sources/Methodology in Comments
byu/Gibybo inCOVID19

Some additional data. The theory remains unproven.

“the lack of cases south of 30 N ”

If you never test anybody for Kung Flu, nobody’s GOT Kung Flu.

That’s big brain thinking, see!

EliteCommInc –

“But there is nothing prudent about the fear mongering that is taking place.”

Why did the Italians shut down their whole country?

20 days ago they had 20 cases. Now they have 9000 specifically identified ones and their hospitals are swamped, all with cases of the exact same type of pneumonia. I don’t know how many of the “pneumonia” cases are included in the official C19 numbers, it wouldn’t surprise me if many haven’t been explicitly tested, but the hospital staff all know what’s what. So the ~9000 number may or may not be accurate.

In the meantime the entire country is shut down with criminal penalties for travel.

Please point out the NeverTrump fear mongering on Italy’s part?

I just talked this over with certain elders of my family. They were universally contemptuous of the idea, particularly noting that dry air is always and consistently better for respiratory ailments, and that this was the reason people were sent to the mountains or the Southwest for health reasons. These are people who very rarely find reasons to visit hospitals or doctors and are in excellent health for their ages, so I find their judgement trustworthy.

I’ll still remember the prediction and look for confirmation or disproof, but I don’t really expect the first.

This is a nice-sounding prediction. What were climate conditions in 1918? From what I understand it hit (humid) India hardest.

I’ll keep this prediction in mind, but I’ll also keep washing my hands, avoiding touching my face, and staying away from crowds. For at least the next two months. By then matters should be clearer.

Of course my father has been saying all along that he expects the virus to come roaring back in the fall, much worse than it is now.

The most interesting book I’ve ever read on religion is James George Frazer’s “The Golden Bough” – specifically, the 1994 Oxford Classics edition compiled by Robert Fraser from Frazer-with-a-Z’s original second and third editions. (The edition matters because Frazer-with-a-Z released four different editions in his lifetime, which varied wildly in organization, content, and presentation of the underlying ideas.)

Frazer’s fundamental thesis – which he supports via colossal amounts of evidence – is that human religion across nearly ALL cultural backgrounds and ethnicities follows certain very specific common patterns and shares certain very specific traits, and that these commonalities are a side effect of the impact of agriculture and the cycle of the seasons on human daily life.

He also speculates that the arrival of industrial society and its consequent decoupling of human society from agricultural cycles will produce a massive disruption in social and religious patterns, and makes some predictions. He was writing in the early 1900s, and comparing his predictions to the events observed since – at every level from small-town customs to world-historical cataclysms – reveals a fascinating prescience.

If Frazer is correct – if you haven’t guessed, I’m totally convinced he is – all attempts to reverse the collapse of the Old Religion must inevitably fail. Something new will take its place.

This has been said already but I want to reiterate.

“What’s done is done: even if immigration is fully halted tomorrow, demographics are what they are, with tens of millions of new citizens. ”

Not on your life.

A third of modern-day Poland was German, a hundred fifty years ago. Kosovo was Serbian. The Anatolian littoral was populated nearly entirely by Greeks. What is now South Africa was equally divided between a black Zulu kingdom and white republics. Another half-century earlier, the Great Plains from the Texas panhandle to Wyoming were the unquestioned domain of the Comanches, as had been the case for the preceding three centuries. Three hundred years ago, Nova Scotia was French and Louisiana far less so. Six centuries back, North America was entirely inhabited by a very different people than one finds now.

It is entirely possible to change demographics. You just need to be willing to do it.

You need to value the existence of your people more than you are bothered by harm to those who are not yours.

It’s not a very high bar to clear, and the fact that it hasn’t been passed yet is testament to how tremendously easy life still is even in the days of fracturing empire.

“The dogs, not the children. What the hell is wrong with you?”

Don’t you know? Republicans eat babbies.

…

Innocent: GOODPERSON, WHY REPUBLICANS EAT BABBIES?

Goodperson: REPUBLICANS BAD.

Innocent: AWW! REPUBLICANS SO BAD!

“she lacks the combination of charisma and salience to combat the corporate media smear machine”

Where’s this claim coming from?

The smears of her I’ve seen are entirely from grassroots-level wokesters who think she’s some sort of right-wing infiltrator. I’m not going to extrapolate to the general voting public from that.

VP Gabbard.

She offers something to the feminists, and stokes the Bernie enthusiasm as a great big bird-flip to Hillary.

And where are the Hillary voters going to go, anyway? They’re the most demented anti-Trump people around. They’ll vote Sanders if they have to.

Except that whites will also, increasingly, be treating Jews badly.

Emmanuel Cellar has a lot to answer for.

Talha’s posts here are fairly interesting. It’s important to remember, however:

A mosque is not “just like a church, except for Allah instead of Jesus”. There is this basic assumption built into white people because it’s the framework within which we’ve existed all our lives. A mosque is not a religious center. It is a religious/political/social center. It is the center of ALL aspects of Islamic life. It is the center of worship, and it is also the place where social networking and inter-family relationships happen, and it is also the place where policy is decided. It is church and City Hall and the park rec center all combined into one. It is totalitarian.

White guys who convert to Islam get told: “sure, we’ll set you up with a wife, you’ll be one of us, you’ll fit in!” And then they do. And they find themselves at the absolute bottom of an extremely strict hierarchy, and being given orders, and damn well expected to follow through on those orders. More than a few ended up in Syria to prove themselves to their new coreligionists. Others performed other actions, perhaps not as dramatic or explicitly criminal or necessitating overseas travel, but still meaningful and serious steps to separate themselves from their own race and culture and leave them utterly dependent on the adopted one. It’s all straight out of cult procedures everywhere. Because that’s what it is, especially for white converts: a cultist brainwashing.

Islam is not race-blind. It is an absolutist and totaliarian ideology of global conquest. It wants you to convert, yes, but the Arabs will always at the top of the Islamic pyramid, and white converts will always be expendable tools to be viewed with extreme suspicion. Read up on Janissaries and Mamelukes; it’s nothing new. Islam does not want whites to convert for the benefit of whites; it wants whites to convert for the benefit of Islam, and it will use those whites up and then throw them away.

Talha’s posts are interesting. Always remember when reading them, though: he has his own perspective and his own motivations and perhaps may not even be consciously aware of some of the objectives he is furthering.

@75

“However, credit where credit is due! The WN 1.0 guys who are tatted up and hang swastikas in their houses know eachother IRL and meet regularly. They have an actual command hierarchy. If the balloon went up, they could be a credible contender to take over local government operations in their area.”

You’re not from this universe, are you?

@79

“The WN types with power are either prison gangs, or biker gangs. ”

And in neither case would they be functional replacement governments. There’s far more to maintaining a functional society than being the toughest and nastiest alpha SOB around. Civilization is the product of comparatively weak beta males discovering that their ability to cooperate effectively in peace and war makes them more than a match for any combination of raging thugs. MS-13 and Mexican drug gangs and so on exist only at the sufferance of the governments involved: if and when a government decides to eradicate them – and I mean eradicate as a matter of war, not going through the motions of innocent-until-proven-guilty and treating them as misunderstood fellow citizens and all the rest of it – they will by god be eradicated and right quick, too.

Prison gangs have power because the law enforcement authorities permit them to do so, and prevent citizen militias from forming and/or taking action. Remove law enforcement, you don’t have prison gangs move into the vacuum; instead you have citizen militias and death squads going on a bloody rampage for a few months, during which time most of the criminals (complete with tattoos and huge biceps) and more than a few innocents end up dead. Afterwards, you don’t have any criminals, and the smarter leaders in the citizen militias will make like Queen Elizabeth I and talk about how shocked, shocked they are at these stories of innocents being killed mistakenly and make one of the mid-level commanders into a convenient scapegoat. Everybody feels good about it, the virtue signalling is complete, and the targeted class is conveniently dead. And meanwhile the plumbing works and there’s food for sale at the market.

Prison gangsters can’t do that. If they could, they wouldn’t have ended up in prison in the first place.

We have, as a society and a civilization, lost our innocence. On multiple levels. Try rewatching the original Mary Poppins, for example. I can’t imagine today’s kids tolerating the corniness for more than a few minutes at a time.

Tolkien didn’t so much “make his own” as rip the skin off Nordic myth and drape it over Christianity.

He did it well, but the more one reads the more one realizes how much he DIDN’T invent.

In the Voluspa, for example, there’s a section listing out names of various heroes. Those names will be totally familiar, since Tolkien stole the name list outright, word for word, no spelling changes, and stuck them on his 13 dwarves headed to the Lonely Mountain. “Earendel” is a name from a pre-Christian British myth. Etc.

The most interesting thing to me about Tolkien’s mythology as compared to modern interpretations of fantasy – dwarves (even with that Tolkienesque spelling), in modern fantasy, are ALWAYS Scots. They’re penny-pinching hard-drinking hard-fighting mechanically-apt assholes organized around clans. Whereas Tolkien explicitly stated at one point that he intended his dwarves to be allegorical parallels of the Jews.

The difference, of course, is that even when they’re being assholes, people LIKE Scots.

But yeah, Boromir.

The problem with China is that they have a very inverted demographic pyramid, and no meaningful indication that it’s able to turn around anytime soon. That’s going to lead to social issues no society on the planet has dealt with yet. Japan is the closest analogue but Japan got plenty rich and robotized before entering demographic winter.

American whites aren’t in great shape demographically either but that’s at least in part due to external pressures – family courts and the Duluth model, the ridiculous price of health care, government micromanagement of everything, the fed-supported immivasion jacking up housing costs and price of family formation. Knock those things off the table – which an extended period of societal disorder would do – and the recovery period would be strong.

@John Burns

“The Collapse of British Power” by Corelli Barnett is one of the best books I’ve ever read on the circumstances leading up to WW2. The TLDR is that the Brits were rabidly ideologically leftist fools – direct parallels of the worst woke-Progressivism circulating today – and blundered straight into it, completely blindly, and made it far worse than it needed to be.

It gets to the point that when Barnett recounts the final declaration of war over Poland and Hitler’s utter amazement and disbelief that, of all things, THIS should be the particular point on which the Brits would choose to make trouble, you totally sympathize with Mr. Adolf.

The polls were absolutely spot on in 2018. They were spot on in 2012 too, no matter how much Romney and his high-paid consultants wanted to believe otherwise. Their divergence from the actual results in 2016 was within a very small margin of error – a few tens of thousands of voters spread across multiple states.

Translation: polls are generally accurate, Vox Day hardest hit.

Next question: is this good or bad for whites? Given the multiple indicators trending toward some sort of societal/economic blowup somewhere around 2024, it would be convenient to have somebody from the opposite side in charge just before and during any such event. Especially as Mr. Trump has completely passed on doing anything concrete to defuse or mitigate the circumstances leading toward such a blowup.

OT: I request Kamala Harris commentary!

When you predicted she’d be the nominee, I could not fault your reasoning. America owes Tulsi Gabbard a debt of gratitude. And Kamala also, for managing to fumble what could have been a sure thing.

“But for tens of millions of normies? No. You’re going to have fight.”

Correct.

The only way to avoid what is coming is to be on a different continent. Not Western Europe, either; things are getting spicier by the day there. Meanwhile the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis has NEVER been recognized: all that bad debt it still on the books and un-defaulted, because recognizing it means bankers would lose money, power, and influence. The economy is not good; it’s just being goosed to look good and keep the headlines positive until the election. It’s all smoke and mirrors and a dedicated refusal to address the underlying problems.

Trump knows what the problems are, starting with the unsustainable ongoing rise in health care costs resulting from local monopoly extortion. He talked about these things in his campaign. He tweets about Amazon and big tech and deplatforming and the unacceptable and illegal and prosecutable things they do. And he has not lifted a single finger to actually stop any of it. Whether his heart is in the right place or not is beside the point; he’s refusing to fix it, therefore his only use is to accelerate the crisis.

Our host keeps saying America hasn’t had its Sulla yet. I disagree: Lincoln qualifies, with FDR in the role of Augustus. The empire replaced the republic, although the zombified forms of the republic persist. Overall the pattern of history is much accelerated from Roman times; once the shooting starts, there is no way Appalachia and the Midwest will put up being ruled from California and NYC again, short of a Holodomor.

Every single family I know that forswears corporal punishment of any sort has been a complete clusterfuck.

I have one particular close relative, of a similar age to me, whose parents made a point of applying these sorts of philosophical arguments to their child-rearing. The result is the single most messed up human being I have ever known. You can sort of see that somewhere inside there’s a very nice person who just wants to be liked and doesn’t know how to accomplish it, but is so wrapped up in a lifetime’s worth of all the wrong habits and lessons and training that within half an hour of meeting this person, even complete strangers get very leery and realize they cannot possibly trust a single thing this individual says or predict with any accuracy what they will do.

That’s what privileging theory over experience accomplishes.

You have to have authority, and you have to have the means to enforce it. You don’t need to maintain it indefinitely but you do need it during the formative years. If you don’t do that, you might get along without it for a while, but that’s merely a matter of luck. Sooner or later luck runs out. And in a case like this, where the evidence and experience of uncounted prior generations is clear, “luck running out” means “you got what you goddamned well deserve”.

@EliteCommInc

“The issue of mass murder of whites on farms is highly exaggerated. […] Even I did not know how vast the land theft of black properties was until this year. ”

All right, you’re just here to propagandize bullshit. You’re the enemy, and you’re incompetent. Carry on.

Oblivionrecurs’ post at #72 is excellent.

EliteComm – occasional exceptions don’t disprove the rule. Blacks vote Democrat in a 90% monolithic bloc on a national basis. In local/regional elections they’re absolutely dependable when it comes to voting for the candidate of their race; that’s how you get Detroit and Baltimore.

It’s a matter of plain fact that, with 48 hours to go before the deadline, Gabbard wasn’t going to make it. Then Anglin put up his article and banner, and about 36 hours later she made the cutoff.

If you have a different interpretation for that series of verifiable facts than “Andrew Anglin got Tulsi Gabbard into the debates”, I’d like to see it.

Not liking him is not a good reason for pretending to yourself that reality doesn’t exist. Loyalty to one’s feelings is what has gotten us into this situation in the first place; don’t contribute to it.

AE, do you have a good book to refer regarding Sulla? I’ve heard references to him for a while now but the likes of wikipedia aren’t great for painting a coherent picture.

My own expectation is that, with corporate CEOs massively overreaching all over the place (the activity 8chan has engaged in is PUBLISHING SPEECH which is EXPLICITLY LEGAL and yet Cloudflare’s CEO takes it upon himself to unilaterally declare that Constitutionally protected activity to be illegal and to punish them, and nobody does anything about it … yet) we are going to see a reaction, of which anti-corporatism and nationalism are going to be very strong elements, and that adds up to a national socialist government – and not only that, but a POPULAR one.

Also:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

Tulsi Gabbard appears to have delivered a knockout blow to Kamala Harris, who is now polling at 1% among blacks. Gabbard was present at the debates in large part due to Andrew Anglin and the Daily Stormer, who went all-out in getting his audience to make individual donations to her to get her to qualify for the debates when it appeared she wasn’t going to. I have to admit she’s the one person on that stage regularly saying things I agree with.

“It’s ridiculous to claim that women are “encouraged to cheat on their husbands.””

It’s ridiculous to claim it’s ridiculous to claim that women are encouraged to cheat on their husbands.

See how that works?

Come back with evidence, or shut up.

“Shame on you. I would never discourage a woman from forming a family just because it’s not risk-free. You’re part of the problem.”

No, YOU are the problem. You are shaming and browbeating men in an attempt to push them into a behavior that has been rendered extremely dangerous by the present day legal system. You are certainly not providing any evidence or facts whatsoever regarding the objective reality of that behavior. As such, you are dangerous and the next thing to a radical feminist.

If you are honest – which I’m pretty sure you’re not, but I’m always open to being proven wrong – but if you are honest, the correct method of approaching this topic, the one with intellectual integrity, is to go looking for answers to WHY a certain fraction of men are making claims you disagree with. Find what their evidence is. Find what their reasons are. (I could give quite a few but I’m not going to do your work for you.) Be able to recite their points as well as they can. And THEN, come up with your counterarguments, so you can spin them off by reflex. THEN come back here and bring up your counterarguments and specifics.

But you’re not doing that.

You’re not doing that, because you don’t have counterarguments, because you’re wrong, because your basic position on this specific topic is utterly and catastrophically harmful.

It doesn’t matter that you disagree – what matters is why THEY believe what they do. You cannot and will not get anywhere in a discussion with people until you understand where they’re coming from. But that’s not what you’re trying for; you just want to browbeat. It won’t work.

@Dr. Robert Morgan

It is easier to banish a habit of thought than a piece of knowledge.

@MikeatMikedotMike

” I mean should they have known that an entire city government was conspiring to see them physically harmed?”

Yes. They absolutely totally should have fucking known that and not knowing it was criminal incompetence and stupidity bordering on treason. They should have checked Kessler’s background. They should have checked the makeup of the C’ville city council and its political leanings, as well as background info on the police department and police chief. They should have checked the voting patterns for the city and county to see if they could get support from the locals. They should have gotten solid and reliable information from local people (not me anymore, but I did live a few years in C’ville, and I was TOTALLY UNSURPRISED) about how such an operation would be received and handled, and if there was any reason to think it might not go well, they should have fucking well called it off without a moment’s hesitation.

When you organize an operation like that you check the basics. You do not go cruising in blindly confident that the old rules apply to you. That is a major part of why we are upset with this current society: the rules do not apply, to anything. Nobody on our side is allowed to just go in with total confidence that God’s supernatural protection applies to whatever madcap notion happens to pop into their heads.

The second most regrettable thing about C’ville (the first being that it happened at all) is that the people prosecuted were grunts, not the flaming retards who organized it.

That said:

I disagree with our host’s assertion that it was an unmitigated disaster. It was NECESSARY. The alt-right was feeling its oats and had an absolutely disproportionate idea of its popularity and power. C’ville put an end to that, served as a dash of cold water in the face, and made it clear just how much real work there is to do.

James Fields should never have gone to prison, but this is becoming a war, and in a war there are casualties.

“Antifa’s end will come about in the same way.”

You’re excessively optimistic. Antifa has the support of too many people in too many positions of power. The alt-right was a revolt against the people in power.

I hope you’re right, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Sample comment.

I don’t comment often but when I do I generally think it’s because it really needs saying.

The French countryside is almost pure ethnic French. The cities are where the replacement has been happening. Those ethnic French who still live in the cities nearly all have strong ties to specific rural communities.

If the war does finally break out, it will totally be winnable; the cities can be starved. Not one of the browns has the skills, knowledge, or inclination to produce their own food.

This “grand bargain” is out. An immigration moratorium would require enforcing existing immigration law to stop illegals, and that needs to be in place BEFORE engaging in any further discussion. Otherwise you’re just gently asking permission for something that shouldn’t even be negotiated in the first place.

Re: the moon landing, the thing to note here is that (((lies))) always are targeted at breaking down white/western culture and achievements and making whites feel bad about themselves. They are NEVER designed to make whites feel proud of themselves or to inspire them with achievements to emulate or surpass. Take a look at the moon landing “debate” and ask yourself which side achieves one result, and which side achieves the other.

The key to winning elections is turnout, not positioning. Stacy Abrams realized this, that’s how she nearly won Georgia.

But no, TINVOWOOT.

Rage rage rage votekick

I have noticed an increasing tendency on all sides of politics to simply deny truth that the speaker doesn’t want to deal with. You can throw any number of police statistics and hatefacts at the left and they will either deny it outright or announce that saying such things is “shitty” and leave it at that, as though that’s enough to invalidate the facts. You can point out to rightwingers that they are ignoring plain facts and making claims that sound good but are quite simply lies, and you will be ignored as though you never said a word. “True Speech” is a nonstarter in terms of effective tactics while this is going on.

That’s not to say the truth should be ignored. It’s valuable. But (from a tactical perspective) it’s valuable because it is easier to fashion it into effective propaganda than when one starts with lies. The focus needs to be on the objectives and the results, not the principles underlying the methods.

This is an excellent documentary on the Spanish Civil War. There are tons of parallels with the situation in the USA today:

This article is marvelously good, but the conniptions into which it drives certain commenters are priceless.

“A sitting Congresswoman, Pramila Jayapal, has alleged that the Trump Administration intends to physically remove all non-whites from the country.”

What’s wrong with that?

At 01/23/19 8:30 AM EST, unz.com/anepigone/ is giving “We’re sorry. That page could not be found.”

The Palin effect lasted more than 3 days. McCain was ahead in the polls from the day of the Palin announcement until the day he said he was “suspending” his campaign to go back to DC to help pass the TARP aka the 600 billion dollar bankster bailout.

Which 80% of the country was vehemently opposed to, and told their congresspeople so, and Congress loudly ignored them.

The cause of the 2008 crisis was, in a word, fraud; and not one banker has ever been prosecuted for it. The bad debt is still on the books, too.

Come the revolution, decisions like that need to be retroactively prosecuted as corruption and treason, and all financial gains vaguely related to such decisions be clawed back and confiscated. Same way the current world order’s governments still go looking for Nazi camp guards.

Mr Rational:

I also want to thank you for your posts here. You have answered (in very simple and clear terms) several doubts I’ve had about the theory.

I can’t say I’ve seen notable warming in my part of the world. But the change in CO2 levels is very worth taking note of. I wonder if that has anything to do with the apparent large decrease in insect populations that has been noted in recent years.

I was there at the time too. Global warming was a major, major theme being pushed in elementary schools by the mid-80s – and I don’t mean in specific teacher attitudes, but in classroom materials like the Weekly Reader that would tend to get spread around all over the place. “After the Warming” was the great pseudo-documentary that came out in ’89 (all my school’s science teachers showed it); Balance of the Planet was the game that came out in ’90 – these were not out of the blue, they were building on at least a decade of ideological and theoretical work, with absolutely no mention of cooling even as a possibility. He’s not that much older than me, so claiming that cooling was being pushed just as hard just a few years earlier … just isn’t true. There may well have been a steady low-level current of speculation about the possibility in scientific journals and occasional newspaper columns, but it didn’t remotely compare to how much the CO2 theory got pushed when it came along.

“wildly hyperbolic” is typical Vox Day, and it isn’t an accident. Nor is the fact that, if he needs to, he can argue that he didn’t actually say what you’re characterizing him as saying. Like his current series of posts about the moon landing being hoaxed. It’s very carefully written. Most readers will scan it and conclude “Vox Day thinks it’s likely the moon landing was a hoax”, while the wording is such that he can resort to nitpicky details to claim he said no such thing. If one repeatedly writes things such that readers conclude “the author is arguing XYZ” while the author insists “I said no such thing”, either the author is very bad at communicating, or he is good at communicating but systematically dishonest.

Most notably, he doesn’t respond to the very valid point that the Russians would have had every motivation in the world to debunk the landing if it was a hoax (this was less than a decade after Gary Powers!), certainly had the technical ability to detect it, as did at least half a dozen other nations and who knows how many university observatories, all with their own motives to speak up if they had seen anything questionable going on. The unavoidable consequence is that any conspiracy to produce a hoax would have been so big it can hardly be called a conspiracy anymore; it would have been common knowledge. Therefore the one thing that can be said about the moon landing is that a hoax is the least likely of all possible options. But that gets away from his being able to nitpick the details of what words he did or did not use, and distract his audience from the simple and evident overall meaning, and (deniably) leading them into believing things that just aren’t so.

Why he thinks it necessary to lead his audience into these realms of improbability is best left as an exercise in speculation.

James Fields’ first choice for defense lawyer was also one of a group of lawyers suing Charlottesville over a closely related issue. The judge decided that this was a conflict of interest (when in actuality it was a convergence of interests, the exact opposite thing) and removed that lawyer, appointing instead a former chief prosecutor for Charlottesville. Who of course has tons of friends in the current prosecutor’s office and is closely tied in to all the local social networking. And who of course then totally sabotaged the defense case she was entrusted with.

Again I recommend Identity Dixie’s podcast on all this.

This trial outcome is easily one of the most horrifying things I’ve ever seen. More than the Channon/Newsom murders – at least they died. Fields is going to be alive watching his life get crushed out of existence for years. And all he wanted to do was to get out of the trouble zone and get home.

Identity Dixie’s podcast on the verdict was very informative and level-headed.

Sid –
"Anvil of the Heart" by Bruce T. Holmes (ISBN 0-812-54063-8) is about exactly the situation you mention in your final line.

It starts with this:

"The right of a child to be born to its full potential shall take precedence over all other considerations. It is the state's responsibility to safeguard the legal rights of an intended embryo. — Thirty Ninth Amendment to the Constitution"

"The general consensus on the HBD-realist right is that the left will never accept biological realities about genetic differences. I disagree. When they realize it serves their ideological interests to do so, they'll turn on a dime. "

There's this NPC forum I read. Yesterday, the following discussion took place.

First, someone linked an article including the following text:

"Last week, the Ohio state house passed a bill that would ban abortions at six weeks. […] Republican state Rep. Christina Hagan brought her infant twins onto the floor to shame women who aren't mothers about their alleged selfishness."

A child-free female responds:

"Yeah, using one's own kids as a political prop, totally selfless."

"oh god I just read her reasoning for no rape-or-incest exceptions
fuck you forever"

To which a child-free male chimes in:

"Let's not forget how she made sure that it would be her own DNA propagating through the next generation, instead of adopting children in need. But obviously becoming pregnant is the ultimate, selfless sacrifice…"

AE, I think you are overlooking the very critical fact that to the left, ideology trumps reality. It even trumps existence. The left does not believe in heritable traits. The left believes the mind is entirely supernatural and unconnected in any way to physical substrate – that's why heredity cannot possibly have any effect on behavior, and any inclination to the contrary is Hitlerracist. The left doesn't worry at all about creating new little leftists, they take it for granted that everybody's children will turn leftward if they just get Educated. So they have absolutely no qualms about not propagating their own DNA or worrying about the quality thereof.

(Tangential note: Rep. Hagan's views on no-rape-or-incest exception is precisely the sort of thing that WILL make China dominant. Abortion in cases of rape or incest not only should be allowed, it is a moral and eugenic requirement.)

Snorlax is absolutely correct. The left has very strong advantages in any internal American conflict: they are very motivated, they KNOW their enemies are dangerous evil retards who would be better off dead, and they are concentrated rather than dispersed.

The water/electricity argument is, tactically, not a bad one, but politically unreliable – think about it: how many of your local county officials will be willing to shut down all water and power to the city and demand unconditional surrender? How many, instead, will muddle along and hope things will just work themselves out somehow, and thus let the city-based fanatics do whatever they want without repercussions?

All right, if I misunderstood your original meaning I apologize. I see little to disagree with in your latest comments except for the geographical certainties. Borders have been built on less in the past.

But we will see what happens.

4:24

" I can't wait to work on American soil."

Same way you've worked Afghanistan and the sandbox for the past 20 years? Maybe you'll understand if that's not a particularly impressive threat. Maybe you'll also understand if it gets pointed out that threatening your countrymen isn't a great way to persuade them. Treating you with the respect due your occupation isn't remotely the same thing as being afraid of you.

AE:
"God is dead just about everywhere in America except for the South now."

What I'm seeing complained about in the explicitly Christian blogosphere is that the South is just as godless as everywhere else, it just takes the trouble to put on the act, still.

Regarding geography: the county-by-county voting patterns are the interesting ones. They result in maps that look just like Bosnia. Hard blue cities, hard red rural. That pattern holds across much of the country, and is particularly pronounced when you look at just the white vote. (Bracken's CW2 cube is spot on.) When you look at what the two sides are doing on a local level – or at least, what I've seen – blue is loudly proclaiming that of course their values and objectives are natural and good, and red is keeping its mouth tightly shut and focusing on the day job. The conclusion to draw is that blue doesn't understand or believe in the extent of opposition, nor of the very real personal danger to them, while red has already decided that talking gets nowhere and to keep the powder dry until the moment it's needed – being certain it will be needed.

I would love a peaceful devolution/secession instead of the alternative. I don't see it happening.

Why not?

It's an old story: the people pass a law preserving this or that societal standard, the commanding heights of culture and judiciary overrule it by fiat. Been going on my whole life.

I find that a tremendously encouraging graph. I don't want to have to live through continental Yugoslavia, but if it happens, Stalin did say that quantity has a quality all its own.

(continued)

It is not too hard to extrapolate medical costs in the USA and see that there comes a point in the not-too-distant future where they surpass the total budget – federal, state, and private households all put together – of the entire country. The only way to stop this is to start enforcing the laws against monopolistic and anticompetitive practices, and put all the highly-paid hospital administrators in jail where they belong. Also the bankers, but that's another topic.

Now like I said: Trump explicitly talked about this during the campaign. Explicitly talked about it on his website. And explicitly deleted every single word once he won. I like what he's been doing, but what he's been doing is not what he should have been doing, which is 1) prosecute the monopolists and enforce openly-posted prices for all patients in health care, 2) build the Wall. Those two things would have saved the USA for another 50 years at least. Instead, we're going to reach a point where the economics simply don't work anymore and very possibly a bond market collapse (at which point you'll see a REAL governmental crisis), and consequently an Argentine or Venezuela style economic crisis, and from there to continental Yugoslavia is a very easy step.

So for the Democrats maybe winning Florida in 2020 is both not a terribly important problem in the grand scheme of things, and, tactically, possibly very useful as they may end up holding the bag when everything goes up in flames.

Trump can still avoid it. He just needs to do those two things. I don't think he's going to.

@Philippe

J'ai de la famille en France. Et j'ai un t-shirt de fdesouche.com!

Vox's prediction was wildly overconfident and typically Voxian in that it left no room for contrary data to exert any influence over his thinking. Much like his Roy Moore prediction. Or his "Scott Adams is wrong" statement, mere hours before Sayoc was arrested. As a red-meat political commentator and hardline ideologue he's not bad; but if you try scoring his predictions over an extended period of time you'll find they're unreliable.

As for 2020 and later, it's not that disastrous. One way or another the health care cost issue in the USA has not been addressed and continues to not be addressed even though Trump specifically stated during his election campaign he was going to address it and then deleted all references to it from his campaign website the night of the victory. The basic problem, as Angry Karl Denninger has been going on about for the past 10 years, is that 1) health care in the USA is administered by local monopolies engaging in blatantly anticompetitive practices, 2) these "businesses" charge patients based on their ability to pay, rather than charging the same prices to everyone for the same service, 3) this results in services in the USA costing tens of thousands of dollars where it might cost $100 in Japan or Thailand or some other civilized country (or for that matter the Surgery Center of Oklahoma which accepts cash only, no Medicare or other insurance, and has prices on the order of 1% of what you'd get charged anywhere else), 4) the only way to avoid such crippling bills is to get insurance to pay for it for you, and pay the insurers each year, 5) the net result is that the insurance companies and hospitals are systematically extracting ever-increasing amounts of money from the American middle class each year, 6) this behavior is explicitly illegal and has been confirmed as such in two separate Supreme Court cases, 7) the insurance companies and hospitals have simply ignored said cases, continued their behavior, and not one local prosecutor or state attorney general has bothered to bring charges against them (presumably because they're all getting heavily bribed).

The observable effect is that the health care budget in the USA has been increasing by something like 8% per year for the past 30 years. As Angry Karl points out, that's a classic exponential curve, with a doubling time, and any such curve must necessarily outpace any linear increase in productivity and GDP. When the pond has lily pads whose coverage doubles each day, and a quarter of the pond is covered in lily pads, that means you have 2 days left.

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He put in a series of precision headshots on a moving target at long distance

You should visit Dealey Plaza in person. It's not long distance. It's actually fairly cramped by modern architectural standards.

As for conspiracy theories, remember, we KNOW what an FBI conspiracy looks like. It looks like James Comey and Peter Strzok and Lisa Page; it has near-absolute situational advantages, a wealth of assistance in information and sympathetic personnel, high morale, plausible deniability, laudable dedication and motivation – and to cap it all off, total and complete incompetence resulting in total ineffectiveness and failure.

That's why I look at this latest stuff and conclude that, yeah, weird things do happen, and the surface story is in fact the real story.

Stop lying. (Even if it's by force of habit and custom.)

Words have gender. People have sex.

Gender is an entirely imaginary property arbitrarily applied to certain words. It exists only by convention; it has no independent reality. Sex is inherently tied to specific physical structure and function.

This is precisely WHY the left pushed the use of the word "gender" in the first place – to obfuscate what specifically they were talking about.

Gender doesn't matter at all.

Sex does.

Anon @5:49

A female relative of mine was in a situation rather similar to yours. Then she took up ballroom and swing dancing. That did several things for her: it taught her the specifics of how to move in an attractive fashion, it gave her confidence in her own ability to be attractive, and it put her in an environment where there's always guys looking for girls (and vice versa). Totally changed her dating life.

I can recommend it for guys too but it's definitely easier for women to capitalize on it.

So the guys who say there is "no problem" with white women need a reality check

Passerby, that gap largely disappears as soon as the women get married.

There's a pretty solid argument to be made that feminism and female acting out in general is Jackie Coakley-style "PAY ATTENTION TO MEEEE" and would/will disappear in a society where marriage becomes the norm once more.

Regarding white male/asian female, that was a possibility for me a while back. Then I came across http://www.reddit.com/r/hapas/ and decided, better not.

It's a self-selected population of course but it was an eye-opener all the same.

Now think about the political implications of this: what happens when large numbers of young men are excluded from the sexual market?

War.

If the wall is not visible by 2020 Trump will have a very difficult time with reelection. At best he'll be the default – only if the Democrats fail to come up with anybody remotely convincing as an alternative. That the wall by itself wouldn't solve anything won't matter – the people who turned out for him last time will just stay home.

He went into this seriously naive. He did NOT have staff ready to replace all the political animals infesting everything. He tried to let the goverment keep running by retaining most of the personnel and just changing a few figureheads. As we've seen that doesn't work.

On the plus side this is all standing as a very illustrative lesson to everybody watching. I have no idea who the next right-winger to approach power will be, but the next COMPETENT right-winger will show up on inauguration day with a plan to systematically shuffle out the entire top third of the bureaucracy over the course of about three months, replacing them all with people who've proven their loyalty as election staff or local party officials. Also a carefully devised plan to use the DOJ as a tool and extension of the President's will, not as an uncontrolled sparking cable flopping around electrocuting things it shouldn't. Things like antitrust actions against the tech behemoths and the medical monopolies, for example. (Trump's campaign website EXPLICITLY talked about the medical monopolies. That text was all removed the night he won. He hasn't mentioned it since. This problem alone is capable of collapsing the entire economy within 10 years.)

Also being prepared to nominate cabinet members and to simply ignore the Senate's failure to confirm them if that happens. Also, about six months into the term, being prepared to declare martial law (and incarceration of ALL statewide elected officials) in any state that doesn't immediately start full enforcement of immigration law.

In other words, go into it fully aware that you're in the modern day game of thrones and you cannot afford to not be cutthroat. Trump seems to have been not fully prepared for the #resistance. His successor, whoever it might be, had better not share that flaw.

And this all might be wishful thinking. We might get into a Venezuela/Argentine style collapse leading to a Yugoslav style shooting war before then.

the Church could

If the Church had some ham, it could make some ham and eggs, if it had some eggs.

The problem is, the Catholic Church has been entirely captured by homosexuals. It has become a homosexual institution, with the historic role and identity as mere camouflage and protective coloration. For it to get set back on its traditional path would require Crusade-level effort, and I see very little indication of such a thing happening. Far likelier is the churches continue to empty.

Regarding religiosity: there's the underlying type of behavior, and there's the form it takes. Christianity is in rapid decline, yes. Religious-type thinking is arguably not. I see a LOT of parallels between white nationalism and the early history of various religious movements, for example; and it's been noted often enough that progressivism is basically religion.

More generally, I am a big fan of Frazer's "The Golden Bough" as an overarching description of patterns of human thought, and that book makes one particularly key argument from which it draws one particularly key implication. The argument is that Christianity is merely the culmination, the most refined form, of thousands of other religious customs and beliefs all drawing on the same basic sources: the cycle of the seasons and the impact of agricultural cycles on everyday human life. The implication is that the industrial revolution irreparably shattered the connection between the cycles of nature and everyday human life, and therefore also caused irretrievably disruptive consequences for patterns of human thought such as religion, and we have no way to predict what will replace the old patterns.

It doesn't mean religion itself is gone from human affairs; it does mean that the patterns of religion as they've been practiced for the past few millennia suddenly lose control over people, especially the more technological an environment they're in. What he was predicting when he wrote about this a century ago is exactly what we've seen happen.

I've been thinking for a while there's VERY strong selection effects at play in our era.

Sluts: used to be, they were socially pressured into pretending non-slutness. Now they're told it's fine. So they slut it up, don't have kids, and their proportion of the gene pool shrinks, rapidly. The women who DO have kids tend to be the sober, quiet, loyal ones, producing sober, quiet, loyal daughters.

Homos: same thing. Used to be, there was very strong social pressure to pretend hetero behavior and keep same-sex behavior quiet and just for fun. Now, out and proud. No incentive to pass the genes on to a new generation. Whatever genetic component there is to homosexuality is editing itself out of the gene pool, fast.

Trannies: anybody with the slightest imbalance gets pushed the opposite way from what they used to be. Often encouraged into permanent self-mutilation. Trannies have an extremely high suicide rate.

Abortion: disproportionately used by blacks and lower-class. Abortion is basically a statement that "I don't think the world needs more people like me". Who in this world can judge them better? This is why I'm in favor of abortion staying legal, all while being horrified if anybody in my extended family had ever used it.

Etc.

Basically, the next few generations – outside the migratory mob – are going to be increasingly composed of people who WANT to be moral and WANT to be married and WANT to be loyal to their own kind and WANT kids and WANT to think and prepare long-term, with all the marginal cases stripped away. I'm not religious so can't come up with a proper reference but I'm sure there's biblical lines about chaff and wheat that could be applied. That's what's going on, but genetically. A few thousand years' worth of accumulated cruft is being sifted out.

That just leaves us the problem of dealing with said migratory underclass. It's doable. It just needs a disciplined core that isn't constantly being sold out by its own leaders.

If they win in this environment, the country really is moving very far to the left and our chances in a hot civil war aren't look very good.

Elections and shooting wars don't motivate the same types of people. It's entirely possible that rural white America will just roll over and show papers whenever asked; but the more I look at demographic maps of the Southeast, the more they remind me of Bosnia, with nonwhites in the Bosnian Muslim role, and without any big external power willing and able to step in and prevent the problem from being solved.

Clearance rate on murders in Chicago is 17%. Think about that: you kill someone in Chicago, you have a 4 out of 5 chance of getting away with it scot free. Now apply that awareness to the entire rest of the country. That's the step that hasn't happened yet; whites are generally law-abiding and therefore voluntarily keep crime uncommon enough that white-district police departments are capable of handling it. That's entirely based on illusion and inertia, which it would take just one extended crisis to dispel.

Not that this would be a good thing.

As for taking flak for predictions, it is always tremendously instructive to see who goes back and honestly revisits their own past predictions, and who deliberately avoids talking about them.

"There's a gaping chasm between white Democrats and their non-white political allies when it comes to political self-determination."

That's completely consistent with Moldbug's thesis that we are living in the Empire of Massachussetts. White Democrats rule the empire. Nonwhites are their gofers.

The most interesting thing about this thread is all the people jumping in to say “VOX DAY HAS SAID JORDAN PETERSON IS EVIL” and contributing absolutely nothing else.

Now look into what correlation there is with income and class.

All the information I've seen on this topic in the past has indicated that marriages are stronger the higher up the income and IQ scale you go, with religious background having essentially no visible consequence, and that religious people are (within the statistical margins of error) just as likely to divorce as non-religious. (And, anecdotally, that "good church girls" often are among the worst when it comes to moral transgressions and self-justifications.) If there's evidence disproving that it would be interesting to see.

Also I find Jig Bohnson's skepticism about self-reporting to be well warranted. This is interesting data but demonstrating that it is provably accurate and reliable data would take some further work.