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Showing posts with label Mathshammer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mathshammer. Show all posts

Thursday, 14 April 2011

Killing Grey Knights with Daemons - Part 3 (c): Troops.

HQ and Elites have been covered so now we're onto Troops,

Lets start with the more 'offensive' of our choices,

Bloodletters of Khorne.




Lacking some of the speed we need to get into combat reliably but are going to do considerable damage when they do...

WS 5, with Furious Charge upping them to S and I 5 combined with inbuilt Power Weapons (Hellblades) puts them most definitely in the 'Assault' category. T4, 1 wound and a 5+ inv. save doesn't help with their survivability particularly but that's an inherent problem Daemons have rather than an issue with this unit in particular.

Lets look at that survivability Vs. killing potential when were up against Grey Knights.

Grey Knight with Storm Bolter (standard ammo)
2 shots, 1.33 hit, 0.67 wound, 0.45 dead Bloodletters after 5+ inv. saves.

Grey Knight with Storm Bolter (Psybolt Ammo)
2 shots, 1.33 hit, 0.89 wound, 0.59 dead Bloodletters after 5+ inv. saves.

Grey Knight with Psycannon (Assault mode)
2 shots, 1.33 hit, 1.1 wound, 0.73 dead Bloodletters after 5+ inv. saves.

Grey Knight with Psycannon (Heavy mode)
4 shots, 2.67 hit, 2.23 wound, 1.49 dead Bloodletters after 5+ inv. saves.

Your most likely to be facing either 4 Storm Bolters and a Psycannon from a Combat Squad or double that from a full unit. Which means a Combat squad is going to kill between 2.53 and 3.85 Bloodletters depending on upgrades and a full 10 man unit is going to kill between 5.06 and 7.7. In addition, the combat squad has probably jumped out of a Razorback with Psybolt ammo and will most likely kill another 1 or 2.

I never take Bloodletters in less than 10's and I wouldn't recommend it to anybody else either.

Lets see how the Bloodletters do if they survive long enough to charge.

Bloodletter vs. Grey Knight.
Against a Grey Knight without a Halberd you'll be going first if you charged and last if you didn't due to Psyk-out grenades.
3 attacks on the charge, hitting on 3's equals 2 hits, resulting in 1.33 dead Grey Knights or less if they happen to be Terminators, lol.
As a basic rule of thumb one Bloodletter kills one Grey Knight or half a Terminator. 

So Bloodletters have the killing potential, but are somewhat lacking in speed. If we take them then they'll need a decent sized unit and something in front to give them a cover save would be nice as well.

Daemonettes of Slaanesh.


Faster than Bloodletters but somewhat squishier and weaker in combat as well due to the fact that they need the Rending rolls to do the damage. They're 2 points cheaper each though as well as having both defensive and assault grenades which the Bloodletters obviously do not.

They have Fleet so they have a 'threat' range of between 13" and 18" (the turn after they've landed obviously). However their Toughness of 3 is going to have them sliced to pieces by torrents of small arms fire.

Grey Knight with Storm Bolter (standard ammo)
2 shots, 1.33 hit, 0.89 wound, 0.59 dead Daemonettes after 5+ inv. saves.

Grey Knight with Storm Bolter (Psybolt Ammo)
2 shots, 1.33 hit, 1.11 wound, 0.74 dead Daemonettes after 5+ inv. saves.

Grey Knight with Psycannon (Assault mode)
2 shots, 1.33 hit, 1.1 wound, 0.73 dead Daemonettes after 5+ inv. saves.

Grey Knight with Psycannon (Heavy mode)
4 shots, 2.67 hit, 2.23 wound, 1.49 dead Daemonettes after 5+ inv. saves.

Which means a Combat squad is going to kill between 3.09 and 4.45 Daemonettes depending on upgrades and a full 10 man unit is going to kill between 6.18 and 8.9.

So we need a few more Daemonettes in the unit to make it viable. Lets see how it does in assault,

Standard guidelines about charging apply. We'll presume we do...

4 attacks on the charge, 2 hit, 0.67 wound, 0.23 dead Grey Knights after 3+ saves and there's a 0.33 chance of rending. So we need to outnumber the Knights at least three to one to defeat them in combat and even more if they happen to be Terminators.....

The Story So Far.
So those are our two 'offensive' choices for troops. Daemonettes need to be taken in much larger squads than Bloodletters due to their relative toughness's and the Daemonettes lower damage output in combat. If you want to use your troops to kill stuff then you'll need to pick one of these, if however your planning on killing things with your other unit choices then we can use our troops more defensively,

Pink Horrors of Tzeentch.



Horrors are there to give some anti-infantry firepower as well as to give you access to a cheap Bolt of Change. They don't do combat.....at all.....If they get assaulted then they're dead.

As they've been selected presumable for their shooting abilities lets see what they are.

Warpfire, which they get as standard has the following profile :  Range 18", S 4, AP 4, Assault 3. Unfortunately Horrors are only BS3 which is a bit of a let down. Also the more observant of you will have noticed that they're out-ranged by the average Grey Knight by 6".

3 shots at BS 3 equals 1.5 hits, vs. T4 that's 0.75 Wounds of which 0.5 will be stopped by a 3+ Power Armour save. That means it takes 4 Horrors worth of shooting to kill a single Marine. Of course we might have a single Bolt of Change to fire as well...

0.5 chance to hit, 0.42 chance to kill a Marine or 0.28 to kill a Terminator. Now I know this is designed to kill vehicles but your still allowed to fire it at infantry if you like ;-)

Of course it's not brilliant against vehicles either due to the Horrors low BS (3).

Vs. Armour 10
0.5 chance to hit, 0.33 chance to pen, 0.165 chance to wreck/explode. A glance followed by a 6 can still wreck but it's not very likely. You can work out the odds of that yourself.....Or e-mail Purgatus as his mathshammer is usually more thorough than mine.

So we have a shooty unit that's not very good at shooting.....

Plaguebearers of Nurgle.


These hold objectives really well and.....they hold objectives really well.....

For 75 points you get 5, T 5 models with Feel no Pain and a 5+ inv. save. They're pretty survivable against small arms fire and can hold up a moderately proficient unit in combat*. Of course their Feel no Pain is negated by Power Weapons but T 5 is some measure of defence against those, though Hammerhand somewhat negates that in turn.

* That's hold up as in 'tarpit' don't expect them to be winning any combats.....well maybe against Fire warriors.....

There's not much else to say about this unit really. You drop them on an objective (hopefully one that's in or near cover) late game and go to ground as soon as anything shoots at you.

Nurglings.


Are Nurgly.....

That conclusion section again.
Take at least 2 units of Plaguebearers to hold and/or contest objectives and then decide whether your Elites are killing things or your troops are (or a combination of the two). If your attempting to kill things with your troops then Bloodletters are generally better at killing Marines than Daemonettes.
Your going to need at least 2 units moving forward and if you want to reach combat they'll need to be at least 10 strong. The following is (imo) a decent starting point for your troops selections in both an all comers and anti-Grey Knight list..


Troops: Plaguebearers of Nurgle (5#, 75 pts)
   5 Plaguebearers of Nurgle @ 75 pts

Troops: Plaguebearers of Nurgle (5#, 75 pts)
   5 Plaguebearers of Nurgle @ 75 pts

Troops: Bloodletters of Khorne (10#, 160 pts)
   10 Bloodletters of Khorne @ 160 pts

Troops: Bloodletters of Khorne (10#, 160 pts)
   10 Bloodletters of Khorne @ 160 pts

That's 470 points total for that section and we can expand on that 'core' at higher points values.

Next time we'll cover Fast Attack and possibly Heavy Support as well depending on how long each entry ends up.

Thoughts and Comments are (as usual) most welcome.

Saturday, 11 December 2010

Thunderhammer Vs. Lightning Claw - Part 3

So it's been theorised by Mike that the Lightning Claw Terminators are actually the best unit for killing Thunderhammer Terminators.

Lets see if he's right.

We'll take 5 man Terminator units. Each unit fully equipped with their weapon of preference. We'll also see if Furious Charge makes much of a difference.

We'll let the Lightning Claw guys have the charge first time around but no Furious Charge bonuses and we'll round off the dead to the nearest whole number.

Round 1
Lightning Claws charging.

Lightning Claw Terminators get 4 attacks each on the Charge.
20 attacks, 10 Hit, 5 Wound + 2.5 with re-rolls so 7.5 in total. After 3+ invulnerable saves that's 2.5 dead Terminators. We'll call that 3 dead then.
The two remaining Thunderhammer Terminators get 2 attacks each.
4 attacks, 2 Hit, 1.67 wound, 1.11 dead Lightning Claw guys after 5+ invulnerable saves. well have to call that 1 dead then.
An average roll will see them pass a Leadership test even at -2 so we'll presume they do.
Round 2
Lightning Claw Terminators going first, 4 guys left, 3 attacks each.
12 attacks, 6 hit, 3 wound + 1.5 from re-rolls is a total of 4.5. That's another 1.5 Dead Thunderhammers. Rounding up that's one dead unit of TH/SS with only 1 casualty in return.

I suppose we should see how much difference Furious Charge makes...

Round 1
Lightning Claws 'Furious' charging, so they'll be Initiative 5 and Strength 5 this time.
Lightning Claw Terminators get 4 attacks each on the Charge. The extra initiative is somewhat irrelevant as they were going first anyway.
20 attacks, 10 Hit, 6.67 Wound + 2.2 more with re-rolls so 8.87 in total. After 3+ invulnerable saves that's 2.96 dead Terminators. We'll call that 3 dead then.
The two remaining Thunderhammer Terminators get 2 attacks each.
4 attacks, 2 Hit, 1.67 wound, 1.11 dead Lightning Claw guys after 5+ invulnerable saves. well have to call that 1 dead then.
An average roll will see them pass a Leadership test even at -2 so we'll presume (like last time) they do.
Round 2
Round 2 is going to be the same as last time so we'll skip that. So it still takes 2 turns to do the job and the Lightning Claw casualties are exactly the same. Note though that first time round the 3 dead could easily have been 2 as we rounded up from dead in the middle (2.5) whereas with the benefit of Furious Charge it was a far more conclusive 2.96.

Lets rob the Lightning Claws of a few attacks and let the Thunderhammers have the charge.


Round 1
Thunderhammers charging.
Lightning Claw Terminators get 3 attacks (2 base, 1 for the 2nd Claw).
15 attacks, 7.5 Hit, 3.75 Wound + 1.88 with re-rolls so 5.63 in total. After 3+ invulnerable saves that's 1.88 dead Terminators. We'll call that 2 dead then.
The three remaining Thunderhammer Terminators get 3 attacks each.
9 attacks, 4.5 Hit, 3.75 wound, 2.5 dead Lightning Claw guys after 5+ invulnerable saves. we'll call that 3 dead then.
We'll presume Leadership tests are passed.
Round 2
Lightning Claw Terminators going first, 2 guys left, 3 attacks each.
6 attacks, 3 hit, 1.5 wound + 0.75 from re-rolls is a total of 2.25. That's another 0.75 Dead Thunderhammers. Rounding up that's one dead.
The two remaining Thunderhammer Terminators get 2 attacks each.
4 attacks, 2 Hit, 1.67 wound, 1.11 dead Lightning Claw guys after 5+ invulnerable saves.

Not going quite so well for the Wolverines this time is it?

Round 3
Lightning Claw Terminators going first, 1 guy left with 3 attacks.
3 attacks, 1.5 hit, 0.75 wound + 0.38 from re-rolls is a total of 1.13. That's another 0.38 Dead Thunderhammers after 3+ invulnerables which to the nearest whole number is I'm afraid...none.
The two remaining Thunderhammer Terminators get 2 attacks each.
4 attacks, 2 Hit, 1.67 wound, 1.11 dead Lightning Claw guys after 5+ invulnerable saves.

A win for the Thunderhammers!!!

In Conclusion.
So I'm afraid Mike was both right.....and wrong, lol.

Charging Lightning Claw Terminators either with or without Furious Charge beat the crap out of Thunderhammer Terminators in 2 rounds but don't exactly come out unscathed.
On the other hand if they don't get the charge then they're not going to have a fun day at all.

5th edition 40K, where the guy who goes first usually wins....

Thoughts, Comments and other mathematical input is (as usual) most welcome.

Friday, 10 December 2010

Thunderhammer Vs. Lightning Claw - Part 2

Carrying on from this article

So except in a few circumstances we had decided that Thunderhammer + Stormshield was better than a pair of Lightning Claws on Assault Terminators.

However somebody asked in the comments section whether that applied to Blood Angels with their whole Furious Charge/Feel no Pain Sanguinary Priest Gimmick.



To be honest I'm not sure.

To the Maths Cave.....

We'll pick on some Tactical Marines like last time or the results won't really tell us anything now will they ;-)

We'll just do the Maths for units charging as that's the only time that Furious Charge will make a difference.

Lightning Claw Terminators Vs. Tactical Squad.
Terminators 'Furious' Charging (+1 I, +1 S)
20 Attacks, 10 Hit, 6.67 Wound + 2.22 from re-rolls means 9 dead Marines.
1 Marine attacks back (presumably this is the Sergeant whom we gave a Power Weapon)
3 Attacks, 1.5 Hit, 0.75 Wound, 0.5 dead terminators after 5+ inv save.
That's 1.5 more than the non Furious Charge version and 4 more than the Thunderhammer guys in case your too lazy to check the last post ;-)

That would also be 9 dead Orks or 12 and a bit dead Guardsmen...

I suppose we might as well see how they do against our other test opponents the Rhino and the Tervigon.

Now there's a vague chance that they might penetrate the Rhino rather than attempting to glance it to death.

Lightning Claw Terminators vs. Armour 10
Vehicle Stationary.
20 attacks, Auto-hit, 3.33 hits penetrate of which 1.11 causes the desired wrecked/exploded result.
Vehicle moved up to 6"
20 attacks, 10 hit, 1.67 penetrate of which 0.56 result in wreck/explode results.
Vehicle moved over 6"
20 attacks, 3.33 hit, 0.56 penetrate of which 0.19 result in wreck/explode results

So we do a lot better Vs. Rear Armour 10 but still are nowhere near the damage output of the Thunderhammers.

Lightning Claw Terminators vs. Tervigon (WS 3, T 6, W 6)
Terminators 'Furious' Charging (+1 I, +1 S)
20 attacks, 13.33 hit, 4.44 Wound + 2.97 from rerolls
So that's one very dead Tervigon.

So they did 4 more wounds than the non BA lot which was enough to kill the Tervigon outright. This would however leave them out in the open during the Tyranid Players turn but as 90% of Tyranid guns are AP 4 or above that shouldn't worry them a great deal unless there's a lot of stuff pointing at them.

In conclusion.
So the Tactical squad is still dead, The Rhino is relatively unscathed and the Tervigon is dead in a single round of combat (which might not necessarily be a good thing as I stated above). Also any extra benefits we get will only be available if were doing the charging...

I'd still give the Blood Angels Thunderhammers even with the extra 5 point tax they have to pay because of the extra difference that 3+ inv. makes. Also those Thunderhammers would become S9 on the charge ;-)

Thoughts and Comments are (as usual) most welcome.

Thursday, 9 December 2010

Thunderhammer Vs. Lightning Claw.

I got involved in a debate.....It started with a simple question.....

Thunderhammer and Storm Shield,

or Pair of Lightning Claws?

It seemed obvious to me that the TH/SS combo was better in pretty much every way given it's greater utility and the extra defensive benefits of the Storm Shield but apparently my word isn't as definitive as I would like, lol.

So I've got my shovel out of the shed and unearthed our old friend Mathshammer to help with my argument.

First the important Stats...

The Terminators wielding our weapons are WS 4, I 4, S 4 and have 2 attacks base, plus we'll assume a 5 'man' unit.

Our Weapons are therefore either S4 Power weapons with a re-roll to wound striking at initiative (Lightning Claws) or S8 Power Weapons striking at Initiative 1 with a stunning effect thrown in for good measure (Thunderhammers).

We'll start off going after a generic Marine Squad (10 man) as they're a nice 'average' encounter for most players and we'll give their Sergeant a Power weapon just to even things out a little ;-
We'll also round our dead to the nearest whole number.

We'll let the Lightning Claw Terminators have first attempt.

5x Terminators with Lightning Claws Vs. 10 Tactical Marines.
Terminators charging
Terminators get 20 attacks, 10 hit, 5 wound + 2.5 more from re-rolls.
So 8 dead Marines.
But as we're the same initiative the Marines might take a terminator or 2 with them...
9 attacks, 4.5 hit, 2.25 wound, 0.375 dead Terminators after 2+ Saves.
3 Power Weapon attacks, 1.5 Hit, 0.75 wound, 0.5 dead Terminators after 5+ inv. saves.
So 1 dead Terminators.

A solid win for the LC Terminators with the Marines needing 'Snake Eyes' to pass their Leadership.

Lets try that again with the Marines getting the charge.

Tactical Marines Charging.
Terminators get 15 attacks, 7.5 hit, 3.75 wound + 1.875 more from rerolls.
So 6 dead Marines rounding up.
But we're still the same initiative so the Marines might yet again take a Terminator with them...
18 attacks, 9 hit, 4.5 wound, 0.75 dead Terminators after 2+ Saves.
4 Power Weapon attacks, 2 Hit, 1 wound, 0.67 dead Terminators after 5+ inv. saves.
So 1.42 dead Terminators. Rounding down that's just the one, however it's close enough to Rounding up to 2 and that's worth remembering...

Still a victory for the Terminators but a somewhat less conclusive one.

Let's try that same scenario with Thunderhammer Terminators...

5x Terminators with Thunderhammers Vs. 10 Tactical Marines.
Terminators charging
Marines get to strike first this time.
9 attacks, 4.5 hit, 2.25 wound, 0.375 dead Terminators after 2+ Saves.
3 Power Weapon attacks, 1.5 Hit, 0.75 wound, 0.25 dead Terminators after 3+ inv. saves.
Rounding up that kills a Terminator so we'll only be attacking with the 4. However before you get too hopeful remember that in an actual game using whole numbers that could easily be none...
Terminators get 12 Attacks, 6 Hit, 5 wound and kill.
Terminators win by 4 meaning on an average Leadership roll those Marines will be running away.

Tactical Marines charging
Marines get to strike first this time.
18 attacks, 9 hit, 4.5 wound, 0.75 dead Terminators after 2+ Saves.
4 Power Weapon attacks, 2 Hit, 1 wound, 0.33 dead Terminators after 3+ inv. saves.
Rounding up that kills a Terminator so we'll only be attacking with the 4. This time it was a whole Terminator at least rather than a fraction of one like last time, lol.
Terminators get 8 Attacks, 4 Hit, 3.33 wound and kill.
Terminators win by 2 or 3 meaning on an average Leadership roll could still send those Marines running away.

Preliminary Conclusions.
So the Lightning Claw guys did slightly better against normal Marines than the TH/SS variety. However, in the world of 5th. Edition those Marines were most likely in a transport of some kind...

The best they can really hope for is an immobilisation of that vehicle, Lets see how that goes shall we,

Lightning Claw Terminators Vs. Vehicle (Armour 10).
Stationary vehicle.
20 attacks, Auto-hit, 3.33 Glancing hits, 0.55 chance of immobilisation.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
20 attacks, 10 hit, 1.67 Glancing hits, 0.27 chance of immobilisation.
Vehicle moved over 6".
20 attacks, 3.33 hit, 0.56 Glancing hits, 0.093 chance of immobilisation.

Well they sucked at that didn't they?

Thunder Hammer Terminators Vs. Vehicle (Armour 10).
Stationary vehicle.
15 attacks, Auto-hit, 10 Penetrating hits, 3.33 chance of wrecked or exploded.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
15 attacks, 7.5 hit, 5 Penetrating hits, 1.67 chance of wrecked or exploded.
Vehicle moved over 6".
15 attacks, 2.5 hit, 1.67 Penetrating hits, 0.56 chance of wrecked or exploded.

That was much better.

More conclusions.
The Lightning Claw Terminators were quite frankly useless against a vehicle and wouldn't have been able to hurt one with rear armour 11 at all. The Thunderhammers did a much better job, even having a good chance of destroying a vehicle that had moved flat out. Had this been a mixed unit then the odds would have dropped substantially for each Terminator that had Lightning Claws instead of Thunderhammers which is why I'm personally not in favour of mixed units.

Of course not everybody has Vehicles...Some have fucking great T6, 6 wound Monstrous Creatures instead...

We'll use a Tervigon in this example as they're fairly common in competitive Tyranid Lists,

Lightning Claw Terminators Vs. T6 MC's
Terminators Charging
20 attacks, 13.33 hit, 2.22 wound + 1.11 with re-rolls.
so 3 wounds caused.
Tervigon gets 3 Attacks, 1.5 Hit, 1 Wound, 0.67 dead terminators.

Terminators Charged
15 attacks, 10 hit, 1.67 wound + 0.84 with re-rolls.
so 2.51 wounds caused.
Tervigon gets 4 Attacks, 2 Hit, 1.33 Wound, 0.87 dead Terminators.

Thunderhammer Terminators Vs. T6 MC's
Terminators Charging
15 attacks, 10 hit, 8.33 wound.
Tervigon Dead.

Terminators Charged
12 attacks, 8 hit, 6.66 wound.
Tervigon Dead.

An actual conclusion.
In any normal 40K playing environment your going to face off against a large variety of different units and you need to be able to take on any of them. Thunderhammers scare everything, Lightning Claws scare some things and anything that's shooting at you with the kind of things that kill Terminators won't be that bothered about that 5+ invulnerable save anywhere near as much as they will a 3+ invulnerable save...

Thoughts, Comments and 'but they look like Wolverine and he's cool' counter arguments are (as usual) most welcome.

Sunday, 5 September 2010

Mathshammer - Destroying Vehicles in Assault - Part 1

After my article on Ranged Tyranid anti-tank options was re-posted on Messanger of Deaths blog I realised I'd promised to talk about destroying vehicles in assault but had never got around to it.

As Weapon skill is irrelevant when it comes to hitting vehicles I thought it would be easier to simply do a generic article on chance to damage based on Strength...

Of course there are lots of units with 'rending' attacks or that get extra damage dice (for being a monstrous creature for example) so that would also need to be taken into account....


Then it occurred to me that many units can only glance a target vehicle so we'd need to calculate how many 'Immobilised' and 'Weapon Destroyed' results it would take to glance a vehicle to death and also vehicles inconsiderately have different numbers of weapons on them as well.....


So to cut a long story short it became a more time consuming process than I thought so I didn't bother.....


Which seems like a lame excuse so I have got off my arse and done some of it. This article won't be particularly biased towards Tyranids as the principles are the same for every army.

As every vehicle is at least armour 10, we need to be at least S4 to do any damage so we'll start there.

We'll start off by talking about the chance of destroying a vehicle that you can only glance.

A brief note on Glancing hits.
The fact that a glancing hit reduces the result on the damage table by 2 means that only 5's and 6's give us a particularly useful result.Taking into account that if a vehicle is immobilised then the result becomes weapon destroyed and if a vehicle suffers weapon destroyed then the result becomes immobilised, even a vehicle with no weapons will need 2 lots of this type of damage to destroy it. Regardless of what order they occur in this effectively gives even the most basic of vehicles 2 'wounds' vs. glancing hits.

I can't think of any 2 'wound' vehicles but I'm sure there are some.

A Rhino would be a 3 'wound' vehicle as we need to immobilise it, destroy it's mighty Storm Bolter and then do one of those damage types again as well. A sponson-less Predator or Leman Russ would be the same.
A Chimera would have 4, A Predator with Sponsons would effectively have 5 'wounds' and so on.

As you can see 'Glancing' a vehicle to death takes a bloody long time as the vehicle damage table is to all intents and purposes an additional 'save' for the vehicle.

Well that's my basic premise, onto the maths...

S4 Vs. Stationary or Immobilised Armour 10 Vehicle.
Auto hit, Needing 6's to glance (glance is -2 to damage)

1 Attack at S4 gives us a 0.167 chance of a glance, 0.056 chance of an immobilised/Weapon destroyed.
We need 35.71 S4 attacks to destroy a 2 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 53.57 S4 attacks to destroy a 3 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 71.43 S4 attacks to destroy a 4 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 89.29 S4 attacks to destroy a 5 wound Armour 10 vehicle.

If the vehicle's moved up to 6" the odds become stupidly low.
We need 71.42 S4 attacks to destroy a 2 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 107.14 S4 attacks to destroy a 3 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 142.86 S4 attacks to destroy a 4 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 178.58 S4 attacks to destroy a 5 wound Armour 10 vehicle.

If the vehicle's moved over 6" the odds reach the ridiculous.
We need 222.22 S4 attacks to destroy a 2 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 333.33 S4 attacks to destroy a 3 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 444.44 S4 attacks to destroy a 4 wound Armour 10 vehicle.
We need 555.55 S4 attacks to destroy a 5 wound Armour 10 vehicle.

The moral of this story appears to be that glancing a vehicle to death is highly unlikely at best* and next to impossible if it's inclined to move about at all, lol.

* A charging unit of Orks still stands a good chance of doing it (up to and including the moved less than 6" point at least) as they can in ideal conditions get 116 S4 attacks before the Power Klaw Nob even gets a look in. Not sure much else can generate anywhere near that volume of attacks though.

This is where shooting gets a big advantage as the speed that the vehicle has moved is largely irrelevant. However, if the vehicle has a cover save for some reason then assaulting obviously isn't effected by it.

Either way I think this is a good indication of why transports are such a good buy in 5th. ed ;-)

However not everything has a wimpy S4 attack. Furious Charging Marines are at S5 and Marines also come equipped with the always handy 'Krak' Grenade which is S6. Even some units that are only S3 or S4 get Rending attacks which can make all the difference.

So, Lets forget about glancing and deal with the fact that only penetration** really counts for anything.

** Insert your own dirty joke here if you like.

As there are so many possible variables - Strength, rending, extra damage dice, speed vehicle moved, vehicle armour value, etc. I'm going to limit this particular post to damaging vehicles that are armour 10 or have a rear amour of 10 (which is the bit the rules say were going to be assaulting). I'll cover killing Walkers and the few higher armour vehicles in another post.

For comparison we'll also look at an equivalent strength ranged weapons chance of damage against the same armour value. We'll also work out the number of attacks to 'guarantee' a kill from a 'Mathshammer' prospective.

S3 rending vs. Armour 10.
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, 0.167 chance of Rending hit, 0.111 chance of pen, 0.037 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
27.02 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.083 chance of Rending hit, 0.055 chance of pen, 0.018 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
55.55 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.028 chance of Rending hit, 0.019 chance of pen, 0.006 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
166.67 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

A S3 weapon couldn't harm the vehicle at all unless it also had rending.
Marine Sniper Scout (BS3), Sniper Rifle (S3, Heavy, Rending). 0.5 chance to hit, 0.083 chance to rend, 0.055 chance to pen, 0.018 chance of wreck/destroyed.

S4 rending vs. Armour 10.
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, 0.167 chance of Rending hit, 0.167 chance of pen, 0.056 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
17.86 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.083 chance of Rending hit, 0.083 chance of pen, 0.028 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
35.71 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.028 chance of Rending hit, 0.028 chance of pen, 0.009 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
111.11 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

I can't think of any S4 ranged weapons with Rending except Tellion's Bolter and he's a bit to 'individual' to use as a comparison.

We can start ignoring Rending now as any roll of a 6 will result in a penetrating hit anyway once we reach S5.

S5 vs. Armour 10.
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, 0.167 chance of pen, 0.056 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
17.86 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.083 chance of pen, 0.028 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
35.71 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.028 chance of pen, 0.009 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
111.11 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

A Marine (BS4) Heavy Bolter (S5, AP4, Heavy 3) would have a 0.11 chance of wreck/destroyed on the same target.

S6 vs. Armour 10.
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, 0.334 chance of pen, 0.111 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
9.01 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.167 chance of pen, 0.056 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
17.86 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.056 chance of pen, 0.019 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
52.63 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

A Guard (BS3) Multi-Laser (S6, AP6, Heavy 3) would have a 0.167 chance of wreck/destroyed on the same target.

Obviously at S6 we've reached the strength most likely to be associated with monstrous creatures*** so we'll concentrate on them from this point on with a brief stop for Power Fists at the S8 mark ;-)

*** yes there are some S5 monstrous creatures and I'm sure there is the odd character here and there that can hit at high strength but isn't a Monstrous Creature but I don't want people slipping into coma's before I finish this bloody article...

S6 Monstrous Creature vs. Armour 10.
Monstrous Creature Status gives us Strength + 2 Dice to attempt to penetrate the target vehicle with rather than the usual Strength + 1 Die.
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, 0.833 chance of pen, 0.278 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
3.6 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.417 chance of pen, 0.139 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
7.19 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.139 chance of pen, 0.046 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
21.74 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

S7 Monstrous Creature vs. Armour 10.
Monstrous Creature Status gives us Strength + 2 Dice to attempt to penetrate the target vehicle with rather than the usual Strength + 1 Die.
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, 0.917 chance of pen, 0.306 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
3.27 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.456 chance of pen, 0.152 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
6.58 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.153 chance of pen, 0.051 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
19.6 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

A Guard Hydra (BS3, Twin Linked, S7, AP4, Heavy 4) would have a 0.50 chance of wreck/destroyed on the same target.

S8 Power Fist/Klaw vs. Armour 10.
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, 0.667 chance of pen, 0.222 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
4.50 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.333 chance of pen, 0.111 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
9.01 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.111 chance of pen, 0.037 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
27.03 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

S8 Monstrous Creature or S8 Chainfist vs. Armour 10.
Monstrous Creature Status gives us Strength + 2 Dice to attempt to penetrate the target vehicle with rather than the usual Strength + 1 Die (as would using a Chainfist).
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, 0.972 chance of pen, 0.324 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
3.07 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.486 chance of pen, 0.162 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
6.17 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.162 chance of pen, 0.054 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
18.52 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

A Marine or Guard Veteran (BS4) Meltagun (S8, AP1, Assault 1, Melta) would have a 0.343 chance of wreck/destroyed on the same target at short range or 0.222 at long range.

S9 Monstrous Creature or S9 Chainfist vs. Armour 10.
Monstrous Creature Status gives us Strength + 2 Dice to attempt to penetrate the target vehicle with rather than the usual Strength + 1 Die (as would using a Chainfist).
Vehicle stationary.
Auto-hit, Auto-pen, 0.333 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
3.00 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved up to 6".
0.5 hit, 0.5 chance of pen, 0.167 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
5.99 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.
Vehicle moved over 6".
0.167 hit, 0.167 chance of pen, 0.056 chance of wrecked/destroyed.
17.86 attacks required to 'kill' vehicle.

A Marine (BS4) Lascannon (S9, AP2, Heavy 1) would have a 0.185 chance of wreck/destroyed on the same target.

Conclusions.
Well that's a lot of information I've thrown your way and thanks for bearing with it till the end.
As you can plainly see, transport vehicles have much more to fear from being shot at than from being assaulted.

Look at it this way...

Consider the armour value to be like toughness since you need a decent die roll to penetrate that armour with, its basically the equivalent of a T6 or T7 creature, Call the number of hits required to 'guarantee' a kill it's wounds and you find most vehicles have the equivalent of far more wounds than any character or monstrous creature. Carrying that principle on the vehicle damage table roll is to all intents and purposes a 3+ invulnerable save and any instance of cover we'll call 'Feel no Pain'.
Would you honestly want to try and kill 10 of those creatures in assault...no?...I thought not.

Like it or not 5th. ed. has made vehicles very difficult to destroy and Maths shows us that shooting them to death is more efficient than assaulting them in virtually all cases.

It's no wonder that MSU (Multiple Small Unit) vehicle gun-lines are so popular...

Maybe I should have worked this out before I decided to have all my Guardsmen on foot?

Still I've got plenty of guns so it isn't a complete loss....

Editors Note : It's getting late and I'm yet to double-check the Maths so I'll post it as is and check the sums tomorrow.

Friday, 27 August 2010

Mathshammer Week - Part 4 - Guardsmen 'Blob' Squads.


Well apparently 'Mathshammer Week' didn't have nearly as much Mathshammer in it as I thought it was going to as I got distracted by a large pile of Imperial Guardsmen.

I'm sure you're all terribly disappointed.

So to make it up to you all...Mathshammer.....Featuring Imperial Guardsmen.....

Sometimes I'm just too good to you all...

I've decided to go with the 'Blob' of Imperial Guardsmen as the bit of my army that moves forward. It's going to be set up like this,

9 Infantry Squad (Vox Caster; Meltagun x1; Commissar)
1 Commissar (Power Weapon)
1 Sergeant (Melta Bombs; Power Weapon)
9 Infantry Squad (Meltagun x1)
1 Sergeant (Melta Bombs; Power Weapon)
9 Infantry Squad (Meltagun x1)
1 Sergeant (Melta Bombs; Power Weapon)

: Ministorum Priest (1#)
1 Ministorum Priest (Eviscerator)

So that gives me,

23 Standard Guardsmen,
3 Guardsmen with Meltaguns,
1 Guardsmen with a Voxcaster,
3 Sergeants with Power Weapon and Meltabombs,
1 Commissar with Power Weapon,
1 Priest with Eviscerator.

Creed is going to be hiding at the back ready to yell 'For the Honour of Cadia!'* and make those units Fearless and give them Furious Charge.

* Since my Guardsmen are meant to be renegade cannon fodder for my renegade Space Marines who have (as far as I'm aware) never actually been to Cadia I'm not sure why they care so much about it. Maybe they just like the way it sounds...

A Brief Interlude.
It has been suggested to me that I should take Straken instead of Creed. The reasons why I believe Creed will work better for me are listed below,

1) 24" range for orders means I can give 2 'blob' units in opposite directions from one another 'Furious Charge' whereas units need to be within 12" of Straken to get the same effect.
2) I also need Creeds remaining 2 orders to help make my Heavy Weapons twin-linked using orders. Straken will be too far away from my Weapon Teams to use those same orders very early on if he's supporting the 'blob'. Creed can help both, Straken helps one or the other.
3) I have a Creed model, I don't have a Straken one ;-)

Back to the original ramble then...

The Priest also gives the unit re rolls to hit on a turn they charge so that's pretty cool too. He has an Eviscerator to help up the number of armour ignoring attacks the unit generates and also as an extra safeguard if I end up in combat with a Dreadnought of some description.

The Sergeants all have Power Weapons so that's 3 armour ignoring attacks each which isn't bad for a Guardsmen. Their Meltabombs are another anti-Dreadnought precaution though they obviously work against any vehicle (The Priests 're-rolls to hit after charging' ability is a big help here).

Guardsmen with Meltaguns aren't particularly reliable at BS3 but I need some ranged anti-tank and they'll just have to do. One guy gets a Vox to help increase the likely-hood of Creeds order going off by quite a lot (Ld 8 with a re-roll gives pretty good odds).

The Commissar adds a 4th (well 5th if you count the Priests Eviscerator) Power Weapon but more importantly makes the unit Stubborn with a re-roll (unfortunately that re-roll results in a dead Sergeant but that's better than a dead squad).

So well be using our 'Default' testing enemy the Space Marine Tactical Squad and presuming that both the Guard and the Marines are at full strength when the fight begins. We'll start with worse case for the Guardsmen and gradually weight the odds in their favour as we go. At the end we'll have a look at their shooting a bit as well.

Guardsmen Charged.

Round 1.
Marines go first,
21 attacks, 14 hit, 9.33 wounds, 6.22 dead Guardsmen after 5+ saves.
Remaining Guardsmen have a go,
21 normal attacks, 10.5 hit, 3.5 wound, 1.17 dead Marines after 3+ saves.
12 Power Weapon attacks, 6 hit, 2 wound and kill, 2 more dead Marines.
2 Eviscerator attacks, 1 Hits. 0.83 wound and kill, 0.83 dead Marines.
4 dead Marines in total. we lose combat by 2 which is pretty much irrelevant as the Commissar makes us Stubborn at his Leadership of 9. That gives us an 83.33% chance of passing.

Round 2.
Marines go first,
7 attacks, 4.67 hit, 3.11 wounds, 2.07 dead Guardsmen after 5+ saves.
Remaining Guardsmen have a go,
19 normal attacks, 9.5 hit, 3.17 wound, 1.06 dead Marines after 3+ saves.
12 Power Weapon attacks, 6 hit, 2 wound and kill, 2 more dead Marines.
2 Eviscerator attacks, 1 Hits. 0.83 wound and kill, 0.83 dead Marines.
4 dead Marines in total. We win combat by 2 and if the Marines don't get away we'll kill them next turn (in their Assault phase incidentally, leaving us free to stroll off and annoy something else next turn).

The same scenario against a 30 man Ork unit with the obligatory 'Nob' with Power Klaw would have resulted in the Guardsmen Squad killing 6 or 7 Orks and losing 28 or 29 guys in return in the first round of combat...

Lets give the Guardsmen the charge vs. the Marines this time but without Creed helping out just yet.

Guardsmen Charging.
The Priest will therefore be giving them re-rolls to hit...

Round 1.
Marines go first,
11 attacks, 7.33 hit, 4.89 wounds, 3.26 dead Guardsmen after 5+ saves.
Remaining Guardsmen have a go,
48 normal attacks, 36 hit (with re-rolls), 12 wound, 4 dead Marines after 3+ saves.
16 Power Weapon attacks, 12 hit (with re-rolls), 4 wound and kill, 4 more dead Marines.
3 Eviscerator attacks, 2.25 hit (with re-rolls), 1.88 wound and kill, 1.88 dead Marines.
Nearly 10 dead Marines in total. Even rounding down we win combat by 9 so the Marines are testing for Morale needing double 1 to stay giving them only a 2.778% chance of passing.

If the Marines escape we can most likely consolidate into a position that will allow us to make them run again. Either way the Marines (sorry, Marine) are (I mean is) Fucked...

Again, running the same scenario against a 30 man Ork unit with the obligatory 'Nob' with Power Klaw would have resulted in the Guardsmen Squad killing 11 Orks and losing 12 guys in return. Not as bad but still quite bad...

This time Creed will give them Furious Charge as well.

As were pretty much certain that Marine Squad is doomed and the Guardsmen are getting a bit cocky now we'll give them a bit more of a challenge soon.

But first let's make sure of those Marines...

Guardsmen Charging with 'For the Honour of Cadia!'

First we'll have a go at those poor Marines again, just to be sure ;-)

Round 1.
Marines go at the same Initiative as us this time so we get all our attacks back regardless of what the Marines kill,
11 attacks, 7.33 hit, 4.89 wounds, 3.26 dead Guardsmen after 5+ saves.
Remaining Guardsmen have a go,
54 normal attacks, 40.5 hit (with re-rolls), 20.5 wound, 6.83 dead Marines after 3+ saves.
16 Power Weapon attacks, 12 hit (with re-rolls), 6 wound and kill, 6 more dead Marines.
3 Eviscerator attacks, 2.25 hit (with re-rolls), 1.88 wound and kill, 1.88 dead Marines.
Yep, their dead.

Again, running the same scenario against a 30 man Ork unit with the obligatory 'Nob' with Power Klaw would have resulted in the Guardsmen Squad killing 25 Orks and losing 2 guys in return. Which isn't bad for a bunch of puny 'oomans ;-)

So now we need a real test. Who or what to choose?

Lets pick every-bodies favourite under-pointed assault unit the Thunder Hammer/Storm Shield armed Assault Terminator.

5 seems to be the common quantity so we'll have a go against them using all the advantages we have...

What do you mean that's not a good enough test?

Okay we'll put Lysander with them as well...Happy now???

Guardsmen Charging Assault Terminators + Lysander.

Well at least we're going first.

Round 1.
Guardsmen first,
54 normal attacks, 40.5 hit (with re-rolls), 20.5 wound, 3.42 dead Terminators after 2+ saves.
16 Power Weapon attacks, 12 hit (with re-rolls), 6 wound, 2 more dead Terminators after 3+ inv..
3 Eviscerator attacks, 2.25 hit (with re-rolls), 1.88 wound, 0.63 dead Terminators.
so that's 6.05 wounds worth of Assault Terminators deceased.
So the units dead and Lysanders lost a wound.

I suppose we best let him have a go back now...

3 attacks, 2 hit, 2.5 with the reroll for Master Crafted, 2.08 dead guardsmen.
We win by 4, the stubborn bastard has a 94.44% chance of passing his Leadership test so we'll presume he does.

Round 2.
Guardsmen first (again),
24 normal attacks, 12 hit, 4 wound, 0.67 wounds generated after 2+ saves.
12 Power Weapon attacks, 6 hit, 2 wound,
0.67 wounds generated
after 3+ inv.
2 Eviscerator attacks, 1 hit, 0.83 wound, 0.28
wounds generated
after 3+ inv.
So that's 1.62 wounds generated, leaving Lysander on a wound.

Lysander kills another 2 Guardsmen then dies during round 3 before he gets a chance to hurt any more Guardsmen...

Conclusion 1.
So if our blob squad doesn't get to charge it still makes a decent 'tar-pit' unless its against a 'torrent of attacks' style unit. If it does get the charge it can do considerable damage to most units. However if Creed gets in on the act as well then there isn't much it can't kill.

Bored yet?

lets quickly do shooting then.

3x S8, AP1 Meltaguns at BS 3, 1.5 Hit.
Vs. Armour 10, 1.46 chance of pen, 0.73 chance of wreck/explosion.
Vs. Armour 11, 1.38 chance of pen, 0.69 chance of wreck/explosion.
Vs. Armour 12, 1.13 chance of pen, 0.62 chance of wreck/explosion.
Vs. Armour 13, 1.08 chance of pen, 0.54 chance of wreck/explosion.
Vs. Armour 14, 0.87 chance of pen, 0.44 chance of wreck/explosion.

Conclusion 2.
3x BS 3 Meltaguns are pretty good at killing vehicles and Blob squads that charge with Creeds order active are fucking awesome.

I'm tired now so I'll post it as is and then check the Maths in the morning...

Wednesday, 25 August 2010

Mathshammer Week - Part 3 - Thorax Swarm.


Since this particular weapon is only available on the Tyrannofex for free* all of you people who still think that the Tyrannofex is rubbish can go an sit in the corner till I've finished.

* A Hive Tyrant can take the same upgrade for 25 points if you really want.

Just the Tyrannofex fan-boys (and girls) here?

Good, off we go then ;-)

The Thorax Swarm comes as part of the Tyrannofex's standard wargear and has the wonderful ability to be fired in addition to the 2 weapons normally allowed by Monstrous Creatures. The 'default' option is 'Electroshock Grubs' but as changing to the other options is free that doesn't really make a difference to the analysis (points cost being a non-issue). In the unlikely event that your taking this as an upgrade for a Hive Tyrant the cost is also identical regardless of the 'insect ammo' you select.

As this is a Template weapon Maths becomes a bit tricky as there is no way to calculate average number of hits, so were going to go with 'chance to kill' as this...


...is unlikely to be your opponents deployment unless your very, very lucky or all your opponents suffer from mental disorders ;-)

So our template options are,

a) Electroshock Grubs : S 5, AP 5, Assault 1.
b) Sheddershard Beetles : S 3, AP -, Assault 1, Rending.
c) Desiccator Larvae : S1, AP -, Assault 1, Wounds on 2's Vs. non-vehicle units.

So lets see which is best then,


Electroshock Grubs.
Range - Template, S 5, AP 5, Assault 1.

Vs. Marine Terminator - 0.67 chance to wound, 0.11 chance of death after 2+ save.
Vs. Marine - 0.67 chance to wound, 0.22 chance of death after 3+ saves.
Vs. Ork - 0.67 chance to wound, 0.67 dead.
Vs. Guardsmen - 0.83 chance to wound, 0.83 dead.

It also has a small chance to penetrate Armour 10,

Vs. Armour 10, 0.167 chance of a pen, 0.056 chance of wreck/explosion.

So it does nicely against Orks and Humans but barely tickles anything with a decent armour save or actual armour (much like most Flamer weapons if were honest).

Sheddershard Beetles.
Range - Template, S 3, AP -, Assault 1, Rending.

Vs. Marine Terminator - 0.33 chance to wound (0.11 chance of death to Rending after 5+ inv. save), 0.05 chance of death after 2+ save.
Vs. Assault Terminator - 0.33 chance to wound (0.06 chance of death to Rending after 3+ inv. save), 0.05 chance of death after 2+ save.
Vs. Marine - 0.33 chance to wound (0.17 chance of death to Rending) 0.11 chance of death after 3+ saves.
Vs. Ork - 0.33 chance to wound (0.17 chance of death to Rending) 0.28 chance of death after 6+ saves.
Vs. Guardsmen - Vs. Ork - 0.33 chance to wound (0.17 chance of death to Rending) 0.22 chance of death after 5+ saves.

It also can in theory hurt Armour 10,

Vs. Armour 10, 0.17 chance of a Rending hit, 0.057 chance of pen, 0.01 chance of wreck.

So it's worse against everything, lol.

Desiccator Larvae.
S1, AP -, Assault 1, Wounds on 2's Vs. non-vehicle units.

As we're wounding everything on 2's anyway we'll look at effectiveness based on target save.

0.83 chance of wounding,

No Save, 0.83 dead (Is there anything with 1 wound and no save?).
6+ Save, 0.69 dead (Orks).
5+ Save, 0.55 dead (Guardsmen, Guardians, Rangers, etc.).
4+ Save, 0.42 dead (Ard Boyz, Dire Avengers, Fire warriors, Marine Scouts, etc.).
3+ Save, 0.28 dead (Blue Marines, Grey Marines, Red Marines, Spiky Marines, etc.).
2+ Save, 0.14 dead (Terminators).
1+ Save, sorry wrong game system...still 0.14 dead though...

So the Larvae work better against everything except Guardsmen who are slightly more vulnerable to Beetles and can do nothing to vehicles.

Conclusion.
Desiccator Larvae is the best overall despite it's inability to hurt vehicles. I'm sure the fucking great MC it's attached to can sort out the vehicles, especially if it's got a S10, Assault 2 gun of some description ;-)

Mathshammer Week - Part 2 - Crushing Claws.


So I got slightly distracted by my new Imperial Guard list idea, but I suppose I better finish off posting some of the Tyranid Mathshammer I threatened you with earlier in the week ;-)

So Crushing Claws cost 25 points and grant you an extra D3 attacks from your Carnifex at an Initiative of 1.

As a Carnifex is cursed with WS 3 it can occasionally have issues doing enough damage to a unit to avoid being tarpitted. With 4 attacks base that's only an average of 2 hits per assault phase which isn't going to chew through even a small unit particularly quickly. If that target unit has an invulnerable save of some description then the problem is exaggerated even more.

This problem is somewhat mitigated by it's 2 sets of Scything Talons which grant it a re-roll to hit in assault. However, this bonus is reduced to re-rolling 1's to hit if we only have a single set.

So the question is...do the extra D3 attacks granted by Crushing Claws make up for the reduced re-rolls to hit?

Often averages don't tell us the whole story. The average number of extra attacks is going to be 2, however there is always the potential of either 1 or 3 so we better look at the numbers for all the possibilities.

Lets take a completely un-upgraded Carnifex. The Characteristics we're interested in are WS 3, S9 and 2 sets of Scything Talons.

We'll take the worst case first and let it be charged and presume the charging unit doesn't kill it before it gets a chance to hit back * and that the target unit has no invulnerable saves.

* It's death is a very real possibility by the way...A WS3, T6, 4W and a 3+ armour save MC can be killed by a number of dedicated Assault units.

Charged Carnifex c/w 2 sets of Scything Talons.
4 attacks, 2 hits (+1 from the reroll) so 3 hits in total, 2.5 Dead whatevers.

Charged Carnifex c/w 1 set of Scything Talons + Crushing Claws.
A re-roll on 1's gives us a 0.167 chance of getting a re-roll per attack reduced by 50% to 0.084 (we've still got to hit with it the second time around and for the most part that will be on 4's)

+1 Attacks : 5 attacks, 2.5 hit (+0.42 from re-rolls), 2.92 hits, 2.43 dead.
+2 Attacks : 6 attacks, 3 Hit (+0.5 from re-rolls), 3.5 Hits, 2.92 dead.
+3 Attacks : 7 attacks, 3.5 Hit (+0.58 from re-rolls), 4.08 Hits, 3.4 dead.

So rounding to the nearest whole number our Crushing Claws made Fuck all difference. Even taking the fractions into account the best case scenario of 3 extra attacks didn't account for a whole extra model dead.

Maybe charging will turn out better?

Charging Carnifex c/w 2 sets of Scything Talons.
5 attacks, 2.5 hits (+1.25 from the reroll) so 3.75 hits in total, 3.125 Dead whatevers.

Charging Carnifex c/w 1 set of Scything Talons + Crushing Claws.
A re-roll on 1's gives us a 0.167 chance of getting a re-roll per attack reduced by 50% to 0.084 (we've still got to hit with it the second time around and for the most part that will be on 4's)

+1 Attacks : 6 attacks, 3 Hit (+0.5 from re-rolls), 3.5 Hits, 2.92 dead.
+2 Attacks : 7 attacks, 3.5 Hit (+0.58 from re-rolls), 4.08 Hits, 3.4 dead.
+3 Attacks : 8 attacks, 4 Hit (+0.67 from re-rolls), 4.67 Hits, 3.89 dead.

So rounding to the nearest whole number only our best case scenario (+3 attacks) gives us any benefit and when taking the fractions into account still doesn't add up to a whole extra model dead.

As one of the most expensive upgrades for the Carnifex (only a Heavy Venom Cannon or Regeneration clock-in at the same points) I'd really expect a more significant advantage from this biomorph.

Another factor that needs to be noted is that even with the 'Living Battering Ram' rule making you I3 on the charge, Crushing Claw attacks are still at an initiative of 1 so there's a chance that your 'extra' attacks will be useless if your opponent can kill you before that initiative step.

Some of you may still be under the impression that the Carnifex is unlikely to die in assault before it gets a chance to attack. However think about it this way, If someone is actually attacking your Carnifex there is always the possibility that they're either tying it up because they have the numbers (Orks, Imperial Guard) and don't care if they kill it or they have a unit that they think can take it out...


Oh and in case you missed my conclusion when I wandered of the point a little...Crushing claws aren't worth taking, but unfortunately (imo) neither is the Carnifex that can take them...that subject however needs a blog post all of it's own...

Sunday, 22 August 2010

Mathshammer Week - Part 1 - Termagant Upgrades.


Seems like as good a place to start as any.

Termagants are cheap, scoring and can have access to a number of upgrades some of which are fairly cheap, others which well... aren't...

So lets see what we have...

Adrenal Glands - 1 point each.
Gives 'Furious Charge' to unit.
Pretty much essential if you want your Termagants to be of any use against vehicles, allows you to hit Marines before they hit you and allows you to wound those same Marines on 4's rather than 5's.
Obviously you need to get the charge but that applies to any unit that has Furious Charge...

There is an alternative however.....Tervigons...If your Tervigon has 'Adrenal Glands' then any Termagants within 6" get them for free and as spawned Termagants don't get any upgrades it's pretty much a no-brainer upgrade for the Tervigon.

So Termagants need this upgrade but personally I run Tervigons with Adrenal Glands so I get it for free*, if I didn't I'd pay the one point per guy ;-)

* Well not exactly free as it costs 10 points to give the Tervigon the upgrade.

Toxin Sacs - 1 point each.
Gives 'Poison' to unit.
Another essential upgrade which allows you to wound anything (that isn't a vehicle) on 4's whether you've charged or not.

Also, as the Poison rule says 'If the strength of the wielder is the same as or higher than the toughness of the victim, the wielder must re-roll failed rolls to wound in close combat' if you are Strength 4 at the time that the poison rule comes into effect (due to 'Furious Charge' from whatever source) then imo you get the re-roll to wound as there's no mention of 'base' strength in the poison entry anywhere, only strength. Some people have disagreed with that interpretation but as far as I'm concerned it's 'Rules As Written' so that's the way I play it.

So, take everything I said about Adrenal Glands in the last 2 paragraphs of their entry and replace the words 'Adrenal Glands' with 'Toxin Sacs' as the same things apply ;-)

So that's the 'special rules' upgrades out of the way...onto the weapon upgrades...and the Mathshammer...

First as a baseline, this is the weapon that the Termagants get for free

Fleshborer - Range 12", S 4, AP 5, Assault 1...Yes, It's a Bolt Pistol, lol.

We'll take a squad of 10 Termagants armed with the above and shoot at some Marines and then just for a change of pace we'll shoot at some Guardsmen as well.

Vs. Marines - 10 shots, 5 hit, 2.5 wound, 0.83 Marines dead after their 3+ saves
Vs. Guardsmen - 10 shots, 5 hit, 3.3 wound and kill as standard Guardsmen only have a 5+ save

Okay that was fairly indifferent (unless your one of those 3 Guardsmen I suppose) but what did you expect for free?

Okay then, onto the stuff we have to pay for.

Spinefists - 1 point per model
Range 12", S 3, AP 5, Twin-Linked, Assault 1.

Vs. Marines - 10 shots, 7.5 hit (with re-rolls), 2.5 wound, 0.83 Marines dead after their 3+ saves
Vs. Guardsmen - 10 shots, 7.5 hit (with re-rolls), 3.75 wound and kill as standard Guardsmen only have a 5+ save

So we've done exactly the same damage to the Marines with a negligible increase in damage to the Guardsmen. for the 10 points we've spent we could get another 2 Termagants which would make the following difference using the free Fleshborer.

Vs. Marines - 12 shots, 6 hit, 3 wound, 1 Marine dead after their 3+ saves.
Vs. Guardsmen - 12 shots, 6 hit, 4 wound and kill as standard Guardsmen only have a 5+ save.

So for the same points as the Spinefists we get 2 extra Termagants which actually give us better results and that's before we even take into account the extra attacks in assault or the extra 2 ablative wounds the unit gets.

It's also useless against vehicles**

** Not that the Fleshborer is much better, but at least it can glance armour 10 and if your charging the vehicle anyway you might as well take any shots your allowed...every little helps after all ;-)

Spike Rifle - 1 point per model
Range 18", S 3, AP -, Assault 1.

Vs. Marines - 10 shots, 5 hit, 1.67 wound, 0.56 Marines dead after their 3+ saves
Vs. Guardsmen - 10 shots, 5 hit, 2.5 wound, 0.83 Guardsmen dead after their 5+ saves.

6" extra range is of negligible benefit, worse than either the Fleshborer or the Spinefists at actually hurting stuff. Useless against vehicles.

Not worth it at all if you ask me...

Devourer - 5 point per model.
Range 18", S 4, AP -, Assault 3.

Vs. Marines - 30 shots, 15 hit, 7.5 wound, 2.5 Marines dead after their 3+ saves
Vs. Guardsmen - 30 shots, 15 hit, 10 wound, 6.67 Guardsmen d
ead after their 5+ saves

Any wounds caused reduces any subsequent morale check by the unit which is of only minor concern to the Marines but may worry the Guardsmen if one of the guys who died happened to be the Sarge.

So a fair increase in damage output for double the cost. Lets see how the unit would do if we spent those points on more Termagants...

Vs. Marines - 20 shots, 10 hit, 5 wound, 1.66 Marines dead after their 3+ saves
Vs. Guardsmen - 20 shots, 10 hit, 6.67 wound and kill as standard Guardsmen only have a 5+ save.

So we've killed 1 less Marine or the same amount of Guardsmen but have an extra 20 attacks on the charge and an extra 10 ablative wounds.

I'd rather have an extra 10 scoring bodies than an (almost) extra dead Marine and a slight increase in chance of the unit running away as I probably wanted to charge it anyway.

And finally the Strangleweb, which is a Strength 2?!?!?! Flamer Template.

Strangleweb - 10 points, 1 per 10 Termagants.
Range - Template, S 2, AP -, Wounds Vs. Strength rather than Toughness, Pinning.

They're shit.

Edit - Okay that seems a bit lazy now I've read my own post...sorry

They're really shit.

Still not detailed enough?

If you insist then...

Vs. Marines, 0.167 chance to wound, 0.056 chance of killing each Marine caught under the Template after their 3+ save.
Vs. Guardsmen, 0.333 chance to wound, 0.222 chance of killing each Guardsmen caught under the Template after their 5+ save.

Editors note - I used them in a dozen or so games and it failed to do anything of note in any of them. I replaced them with an extra 2 Termagants and I've been much happier that way...

So to summarise...
If you don't have Tervigons, give the Termagants Adrenal Glands and Toxin Sacs.
If you do have Tervigons, give the Tervigons Adrenal Glands and Toxin Sacs.

So that's episode one of Mathshammer week done.

Any comments are (as usual) most welcome...
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