The open question is whether or not the oil companies will play along. To some degree, it's in their interest to leave Venezuelan oil in the ground and keep the market prices higher.
Also, it's up to the people of Venezuela if they want to play along. Venezuela is twice the size of Iraq and has several million more people. The Chimperor had 170,000 troops in Iraq during his surge, plus a significant number of troops and the Kurds controlled their area. I doubt very much if there are more than a few nations who would be willing to send more than a token few soldiers to Venezuela.
People seem to forget that Bush's Surge damn near broke the Army. Soldiers were "stop-lossed' to keep them in. Deployments were extended by months. Sailors were sent to be prison guards and work as secondary security. Airmen were sent to be truck drivers. A lot of security was turned over to armed goons like Blackwater, who then sparked major incidents (Nisour Sq. Massacre, Battle of Fallujah) because of their arrogance and incompetence. To repeat, Verezuala's twice as large as Iraq.
This was one soldier's view, nineteen years ago:
"I think about how the Army is taking it's big green cock and sticking it in our ass. Someone please explain to me the sense in stop loss? 160,000 soldiers in Iraq and 10,000-some are stop lossed? Seven fucking percent. What. The. Fuck. Let me tell you something, America; I don't owe you SHIT. I've shed blood, sweat and tears for this country. And I'll continue to do so until the fucking idiot in charge decides to let me go on my merry way... but let's get one thing straight: I'm gunna be on expired time for thirteen months. I have friends who are already on expired time; they were supposed to be out of the Army a month ago, they're still here and we haven't even left yet. After I watch the day I'm supposed to get out pass me by on a calendar and go out on patrol the next day... I don't owe anybody anything. Nothing. I've paid my debt to king and country. Fuck you.
"I think about whether my twelve month deployment that already got extended to fifteen months will get extended to eighteen months once they realize the US Army is BROKEN. You heard it here first, folks, from the horses mouth. We're fucking broken. And don't let anyone tell you different."
If the Venezuelans decide that they don't like seeing American soldiers on their streets and American mercenaries abusing them, then things are going to go sideways in a hurry. And if they do, they'll get help from some other countries that will be more than happy to see Trump tied up in South America.
Also, let's not forget that Trump and MAGA were very dismissive of the idea of nation-building. Yet, here we are.
