Information Processing

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system. 

Steve and Glenn discuss: 

(00:00) - Introduction 

(01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China 

(07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy 

(14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital 

(23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures 

(26:35) - China's Development and Economic Policies 

(41:17) - Comparing US and China's Economies and Cultures 

(47:12) - Demographics and Consumer Behavior in China 

(49:09) - China's Economy: Beyond GDP 

(56:34) - High Speed Rail: huge success, or white elephant? 

(01:17:26) - Future of China's Economy 

References: 

Glenn Luk on Twitter: 

https://twitter.com/GlennLuk 

Glenn on High Speed Rail: 

https://www.readwriteinvest.com/p/is-high-speed-rail-in-china-a-gray 

Munger and Ricardo: 

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/03/charlie-munger-ricardo-and-finance.html 

Audio-only and transcript: 

Recent interview with Razib Khan. We've known each other IRL for about 20 years now, so this conversation has a slightly different character than other interviews I've done. 

I highly recommend his substack and podcast, particularly if you are interested in ancient DNA, human evolution, deep history.

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/ 

Steve and Russell discuss: 

0:00 Introduction 

0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan 

13:25 Hong Kong and finance 

31:53 China property bubble 

48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency 

56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective 

1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observations 

Recent podcast interview with AppliedAI. 

We discuss SuperFocus.ai Enterprise GPT. 

Good intro to how customer-defined AI/LLM memory eliminates hallucinations.

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. 

Steve and Stephen discuss: 

0:00 Introduction 

0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 

5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 

11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 

20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration 

23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement 

27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions 

30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets 

31:47 Dating markets 

32:53 The Art of PR 

38:32 Global reach and community engagement 

39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions 

43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff 

Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/

I've been listening to Hidden Forces with Demetri Kofinas for years now. He's an excellent interviewer with interests in finance, geopolitics, technology and more.

Audio-only version.
 

In Episode 351 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Stephen Hsu, a Professor of Theoretical Physics and Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Stephen is also the co-founder of multiple companies, including Genomic Prediction, which provides preimplantation genetic screening services for human embryos, and SuperFocus.ai, which builds large language models for narrow enterprise use cases. 

This is a conversation about some of the most important advancements and trends in genomic science and artificial intelligence, including the social and ethical dilemmas arising from implementing these technologies at scale. Stephen and I discuss the competitive landscapes in both industries, how America’s geostrategic competition with China is driving tradeoffs between innovation and safety, the risks and opportunities that these revolutionary technologies pose, and how the world’s largest companies, economies, and military powers can work together to reap the benefits of this revolution while averting some of their most disastrous potential consequences.

Sean Reyes is Utah Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” 

Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement. 

More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes 

NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4 

00:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history 

14:21 Sean's personal journey and career 

21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG 

24:08 The movie Sound of Freedom 

28:45 The reality of human trafficking 

31:40 Technology and law enforcement 

44:00 The horror of human trafficking: victims, aftercare, and the media 

01:05:23 Future plans and aspirations

Great conversation with Erik, a well-known SV Founder and investor. 

TIMESTAMPS: 

(00:00) Intro 

(02:01) Political polarization in academia 

(05:27) The decline of meritocracy in academia 

(09:40) Why can't academia change? 

(13:07) Truth-seeking in startups 

(20:16) Sponsors | Shopify | Givewell 

(23:16) The fertility crisis 

(31:51) AI and labor 

(40:46) What industries are safe from AI automation? 

(43:45) AI Safety vs accelerationism 

(47:31) Understanding the rise of China 

(58:26) The future of the US/China relationship 

(01:00:21) How does Steve allocate his time? 

(01:04:21) Steve's suggestions for underexplored opportunities 

Audio-only version on Spotify: 

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss US-China strategic competition and military technology. 

Audio-Only version and Transcript: 

Previous episodes with TP include: 

China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48:

Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: 

Steve and TP discuss: 

(00:00) - Introduction 

(02:23) - Hypersonic weapons and A2AD 

(08:15) - The evolution of China’s military technology 

(13:30) - Hypersonic missiles: targeting and interception 

(29:52) - Surprise attack on Hawaii or Seattle? 

(33:36) - Japan's role in a U.S.-China military conflict 

(36:15) - Chinese invasion of Taiwan 

(42:44) - Amphibious landing, boots on the ground 

(45:20) - Red lines and Taiwan independence 

(48:38) - PRC nuclear weapons buildup 

(51:17) - PRC-Russia alliance: natural resources, technology; Ukraine strategy disaster 

(59:37) - Future developments of military technology in China 

(01:11:44) - Predictions regarding US-PRC balance of power

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies. 

Steve and Louis discuss: 

(00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer 

(14:42) - Founding Gavekal 

(23:50) - Understanding China economic growth 

(32:57) - China real estate market 

(42:48) - The impact of China’s economic growth 

(48:19) - Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies 

(01:07:09) - China’s trade surplus and U.S. debt 

(01:18:11) - Will there be a U.S. debt crisis?

Audio-only version and transcript.

Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry. 

Lynk - https://lynk.world/ 

0:00 Introduction and guest background 

1:27 Miller's early passion for space 

3:54 Evolution of commercial space 

6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX 

8:01 The challenges of early stage startups 

11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs 

33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity 

35:20 The plan for Lynk satellites 

36:41 Competition with Starlink 

39:25 Investment opportunities in Lynk 

47:04 Satellite technology and global competition 

50:21 Impact of Huawei’s satellite phone features 

59:01 Advice for entrepreneurs 

Audio-only and Transcript: 

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. 

He posts often on X: https://x.com/tphuang. 

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction 

2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles 

6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market 

9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market 

14:41 Buying a car in China 27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries 

30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China 

40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving 

50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving 

59:08 BYD, China’s energy independence, and power grid 

1:14:04 The downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehicles

Audio-only version and transcript: 

See earlier episodes:

TP on the US-China chip war

Taylor Ogan of Snow Bull Capital (Shenzhen) on EVs, LIDAR, manufacturing in China

Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. 

Steve and Yasheng discuss: 

0:00 Introduction 

1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s 

15:29 Civil service exams and Huang's new book, "The Rise and Fall of the EAST" 

37:14 Two goals: Developing human capital and indoctrination 

48:33 Impact of the exam system 

57:04 China's innovation peak and decline 

1:12:23 Collaboration and relationship with the West 

1:21:31 How will the U.S.-China relationship evolve? 

Audio-only version, and transcript: 

Yasheng Huang at MIT 

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/yasheng-huang 

Web site: 

Alex Murshak is a Michigan State grad working as an AI engineer in Austin TX. This conversation is Episode 13 of his podcast Hacking State.

Steve and I speak about polygenic risk scoring and embryo selection, using AI to predict phenotype from genotype, in-vitro fertilization (IVF), egg freezing, eugenic public policy, addressing Christians' and right-wing traditionalists' concerns over reproductive technology, Superfocus AI's plan to eliminate hallucination in large language models (LLMs) by separating memory from inference, introspection for LLM error correction, and surviving the failed cancellation attempt at MSU.

I really enjoyed this long conversation with Dan Schulz, an MSU engineering grad who works in tech. Dan did his homework and we covered a lot of important topics.

Apple: https://apple.co/44eTSrJ 

Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3P03SzN 

Timestamps

 

(0:00:00) - Intro 

(0:00:33) -  Genomic Prediction 

(0:05:54) - IVF 

(0:12:34) - Phenotypic data 

(0:15:42) - Predicting height 

(0:28:27) - Pleiotropy 

(0:39:14) - Optimism 

(0:45:03) - Gene editing 

(0:48:27) - Super intelligent humans 

(1:01:27) - Regulation 

(1:06:36) - Human values 

(1:17:38) - Should you do IVF? 

(1:26:06) - 23andMe 

(1:29:03) - Jeff Bezos 

(1:34:29) - Richard Feynman 

(1:43:43) - Where are the superstar physicists? 

(1:45:37) - Is physics a good field to get into?

Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist. 

Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl 

Interviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas) 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo 

An earlier Aella interview with Reason: 

https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/ 

Audio-only and Transcript:

Steve and Aella discuss: 

(00:00) - Introduction 

(01:22) - Aella's background and upbringing 

(12:45) - Aella's experiences as a sex worker and escorting 

(29:52) - Pimp culture 

(38:01) - Seeking Arrangement 

(43:50) - Cheating 

(46:50) - OnlyFans, farming simps 

(51:49) - Incels and sex work 

(56:24) - Porn and Gen-Z 

(01:12:43) - Embryo screening 

(01:21:43) - How far off is IVG?

David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000. 

Steve and David discuss: 

0:00 Introduction 

2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia 

16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis 

23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy 

29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power 

36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles market 

38:06 Why David thinks European countries like Germany will become closer with China 

45:29 U.S. manufacturing is falling behind 

52:08 Potential for war and ongoing U.S.-China competition 

1:04:07 Predictions for Taiwan 

Audio-only and transcript 

Links: 

David Goldman in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._Goldman 

 

Spengler column: https://asiatimes.com/author/spengler/ 

You Will Be Assimilated: China's Plan to Sino-form the World https://www.amazon.com/You-Will-Be-Assimilated-Sino-form/dp/1642935409 

Prisoner’s Dilemma: Avoiding war with China is the most urgent task of our lifetime https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/prisoners-dilemma/ 

David Goldman articles in Claremont Review: https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/author/david-p-goldman/

In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate (CollinsInstitute.org), pronatalism activist (Pronatalist.org), and business operator (Travelmax.com). 

Steve and Simone discuss: 

0:00 Introduction 

1:49 Simone's IVF journey, and embryo screening 

40:02 Dating; girl autists 

55:41 Finding a husband, systematized 

1:09:57 Pronatalism 

Audio only version and transcript.

In this podcast we discuss AI, Large Language Models like GPT, LLM Hallucination, and my new startup SuperFocus.ai

Related:

 

https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/12/towards-geometry-of-thought.html

Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian. 

Steve and Katherine discuss: 

0:00 Introduction 

1:15 Katherine’s early life and background 

21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels 

59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights 

1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter 

1:33:00 TikTok 

1:41:41 Adderall 

1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos 

1:49:30 Gen-X generation gap: are the kids alright? 

Audio and Transcript: 

https://defaultfriend.substack.com/ 

“Mass Shootings and the World Liberalism Made”