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Too many movies waste time convincing their own characters that the supernatural is real. But in XYZ Films’ striking horror gem “Falling Stars,” the people of San Bernardino County already know that witches exist. They’ve spent years coping with their neighbors’ instantaneous abductions, as spelled out in a cold open that shows a young woman running along a winding road. One moment, she’s bouncing to the beat of her footsteps, enjoying the desert air, and surveying the sprawling landscape; the next, she’s just gone.

That scene and many others in this haunting poem of a film are shot partly overhead. Although “Watch the skies!” is advice typically reserved for alien outings, that bird’s eye view proves essential to co-directors Gabriel Biencyzycki and Richard Karpala’s stirring reflection on community, survival, and the unforeseeable acts of God. Caught somewhere between 1996’s “Twister” and HBO’s “The Leftovers,...

Best Picture

Frontrunners

“J. Edgar” (Warner Brothers, 11/11, ?, ?)

“War Horse” (Disney, 12/28, ?, teaser)

“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Paramount/Warner Brothers, 12/25, ?, ?)

“The Ides of March” (Sony, 10/14, ?, trailer)

“The Descendants” (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)

“Carnage” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/18, ?, trailer)

“Midnight in Paris” (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (Sony, 12/21, ?, trailer)

“Like Crazy” (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, PG-13, trailer)

“The Iron Lady” (The Weinstein Company, 12/6, ?, teaser)

Major Threats

“The Artist” (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, ?, trailer)

“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (Focus Features, 11/18, ?, trailer)

“A Dangerous Method” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, ?, trailer)

“The Help” (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)

“Moneyball” (Columbia, 9/23, ?, trailer)

“We Bought a Zoo” (20th Century Fox, 12/23, ?, ?)

“Hugo” (Paramount, 11/23, ?, trailer)

“50/50” (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)

“The Tree of Life” (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2” (Warner Brothers, 7/15, PG-13, trailer) New

“Albert Nobbs” (Liddell Entertainment/Roadside Attractions, ?/?, ?, ?)

“The Way” (Icon Entertainment, 10/7, ?, ?)

“Contagion” (Warner Brothers, 9/9, ?, trailer)

Possibilities

“Coriolanus” (The Weinstein Company, 12/2, ?, trailer)

“The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount,...

Best Picture

Frontrunners

“J. Edgar” (Warner Brothers, 11/11, ?, ?)

“War Horse” (Disney, 12/28, ?, teaser)

“The Ides of March” (Sony, 10/14, ?, trailer)

“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Paramount/Warner Brothers, 12/25, ?, ?)

“The Descendants” (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)

“Carnage” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/18, ?, ?)

“Midnight in Paris” (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)

“Like Crazy” (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, PG-13, trailer)

“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (Focus Features, 11/18, ?, trailer)

“The Iron Lady” (The Weinstein Company, 12/6, ?, teaser)

Major Threats

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (Sony, 12/21, ?, trailer)

“Hugo” (Paramount, 11/23, ?, trailer)

“The Artist” (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, ?, trailer)

“We Bought a Zoo” (20th Century Fox, 12/23, ?, ?)

“A Dangerous Method” (Sony Pictures Classics, ?/?, ?, trailer)

“Moneyball” (Columbia, 9/23, ?, trailer)

“50/50” (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)

“The Help” (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)

“Albert Nobbs” (Liddell Entertainment/Roadside Attractions, ?/?, ?, ?)

“The Way” (Icon Entertainment, 10/7, ?, ?)

“Contagion” (Warner Brothers, 9/9, ?, trailer)

“Coriolanus” (The Weinstein Company, 12/2, ?, ?)

“The Tree of Life” (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)

Possibilities

“The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)

“Martha Marcy May Marlene” (Fox Searchlight, 10/7, ?, trailer)

“Take Shelter” (Sony Pictures Classics,...

The following forecast reflects my best sense — at roughly the mid-point of 2011 — of the Oscar landscape that awaits us. (These are my first projections to factor in the Academy’s recently-announced changes to its voting process.) Needless to say, I will be posting many updates/revisions over the coming months, but, for now, I see it as a fun discussion-starter. Your thoughts?

Best Picture

Frontrunners

“J. Edgar” (Warner Brothers, 12/14, ?, ?)

“War Horse” (Disney, 12/28, ?, teaser)

“The Ides of March” (Sony, 10/14, ?, ?)

“The Descendants” (Fox Searchlight, 12/16, R, trailer)

“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Paramount/Warner Brothers, ?/?, ?, ?)

“Carnage” (Sony Pictures Classics, ?/?, ?, ?)

“Young Adult” (Paramount, ?/?, ?, ?)

“Like Crazy” (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, ?, ?)

“Midnight in Paris” (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)

“The Iron Lady” (The Weinstein Company, 12/6, ?, teaser)

Major Threats

“The Artist” (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, ?, trailer)

“A Dangerous Method” (Sony Pictures Classics, ?/?, ?, trailer)

“Hugo” (Paramount, 11/23, ?, ?)

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (Sony, 12/21, ?, ?)

“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (Universal, ?/?, ?, trailer)

“Moneyball” (Columbia,...

I know, I know… it’s not yet even June, and the 84th Academy Awards ceremony is still nine months (and one day) away, but I can’t help myself… my thoughts are already turning to the coming Oscar race! Indeed, I have spent the last several weeks pouring through mountains of material and pestering dozens of knowledgable sources to try to get a sense of the the landscape that awaits us. Now, in order to provide myself and my readers with something fun to think and debate about, I have decided to share my first projections of the 2011 awards season. Needless to say, they are based on limited information and will be amended regularly over the months to come… but, if my initial projections of last year’s Oscar race (which I posted on June 23rd) are any indication, they may not prove to be all that far off,...