Very Tiny Wars

The military exercise that had been held in late May and early June of 1980, called "Spring 80", had been the largest the Warsaw Pact had ever held, until the Fall, when it was repeated on a yet larger scale, "Soyuz 80". Intended to intimidate the Polish government and people, they appeared to have had little or no effect. So, the Soviets scheduled a second and even larger exercise, "Soyuz 81", for the 17th-22nd of March, to be taken part in by all WarPac countries, save Romania, which had refused to actively participate in the Warsaw Pact since 1968 as a protest at the invasion of Czechoslovakia. 

As January arrived, it was not lost on Soviet planners that some of NATO's key members were at less than the pinnacle of military readiness. The United States was in the midst of a handover of power to the incoming new President. The old national security staff would be leaving and the new staff would need time before they were comfortable and efficient with their tasks. The West Germans had just begun a major restructuring of their army, some units having already received new equipment and training while other units still retained the old organization. The French continued to refuse to participate in NATO, being a member in name only, as they had been since 1966. The Greek military, after withdrawing from NATO in 1974, during the crisis in Cyprus, had returned to full cooperation only a few months previously. Very soon, the US forces in West Germany would begin to swell in preparation for the year's NATO military exercise, REFORGER 81 in September. If the Soviet Union was to upend the balance of power in Europe and, in the process, come to grips with their own growing problems, the time would never be better. 

The upcoming Soyuz 81 exercise was only some two months away. The Soviets had already given notice of them to NATO headquarters in Belgium, as was customary, to forestall any misinterpretation of the necessary buildup and movement of troops and matériel. It would be the perfect cover. It need only be extended for an extra eight days. 

In the most secure recesses of the Kremlin, a plan began to take shape. Would it be possible to put all things into motion in so little time? Directives were urgently sent to all KGB and GRU operatives in the United States; recruit a very particular sort of asset. 

By the beginning of March, Reagan had taken office and the American hostages in Iran had been freed. The Soviet plan was almost ready. Everything would have to be timed precisely. There would be no margin of error. The Romanian leader, Nicolae Ceaușescu was summoned to Moscow and told bluntly that in what was to come, he could be an ally or an enemy. There would be no middle ground. Ceaușescu blanched at the implication and chose to be an ally. He immediately rushed back to Bucharest to reintegrate his military into the WarPac command structure. Similarly, Cvijetin Mijatović of Yugoslavia was told that while his participation was not expected, transiting Yugoslav territory or airspace might be necessary and his quiet acceptance was required. Like Ceaușescu, Mijatović chose survival. 

Plans began to fall into place....

Forgive me if I give a bit of a history lesson, but it's unavoidable in order to set up the situation in which my campaign will take place. It's the history professor in me. I can't help myself. This blog entry deals strictly with real historical facts.

From the Soviet prospective, the most immediately threatening of the three issues was the Solidarity movement in Poland, which seemed to defy all efforts by the Polish government to quell the unrest. In 1976, rising food prices and wage freezes had led to demonstrations in several Polish cities. By the late summer of 1980, the clandestine Solidarity labor union had burst out into the open at the giant Gdansk Shipyard and by the end of the year, it would have a membership of almost 10 million. What began as a protest against high prices and low wages soon began to turn into a general anti-Communist opposition movement. By the end of the summer, at Soviet "urging", the Polish government of Edward Gierek had been replaced (for being too "soft") by that of Stanisław Kania, who would also soon prove to be far too conciliatory for Soviet tastes. In the fall of 1980, at the Soviet Union's insistance, the Warsaw Pact held the largest military exercise in its history, called Soyuz 80, in an effort to show the Polish people and government that the growing dissent would not be tolerated for long, just as had been done with East Germany in 1953, Hungary in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968. However, the end of the year saw not a resolution of this issue, but rather a continuing escalation of it, due in no small part to the United States, which was secretly funding the Solidarity movement to the tune of about $50 million. 

And lastly, 1980 was an American Presidential election year. By the late spring, it was clear that the Republican candidate would be Ronald Reagan, who was a staunch conservative and widely perceived as a "hawk" and not a "dove". America in the late 1970's and into 1980 was in the midst of what incumbent President Jimmy Carter called a "crisis of confidence". The loss of the Vietnam War, a strong economic downturn, increasing petroleum prices (which drove up the price of everything else), giving back the Panama Canal, and the seizure of the US Embassy and its staff in Tehran, along with the botched rescue effort, had all combined to give America the perception that it was losing its primacy in the world. New blood was wanted. A leader who would take charge, take no crap on the world stage, and lead America back to greatness. The Soviet leadership preferred dealing with Carter, whom they perceived to be weak and easily buffaloed. Reagan had already made it unmistakably clear that if he won, there would be no more Mr. Nice Guy in Washington. Reagan left no doubt that the Soviet Union would be actively thwarted in every way possible. Brezhnev felt that a Reagan win would be an open threat to the Soviet Union. When Reagan won by an overwhelming landslide on November 4th, the Politburo's worst nightmare seemed to be coming true. 

Over the course of a few upcoming posts, I'll lay the situational groundwork for the campaign. I'll adhere as closely to historical reality as is feasible, while adding in fictional bits that are historically plausible. Being a history professor means that I just can't bring myself to stray too far from what really happened (or too easily could have happened). 

I've chosen a starting point of March 30, 1981. Specifically, about 2130 hours, local West German time. This is for a couple of good reasons. Firstly, this is near the date when I arrived for my first posting in West Germany (Würzburg), so this is a timeframe that I'm familiar with. More importantly, this was a date that could easily have been a real WWIII, had things gone just slightly differently. 

Most writers of 1980's Cold War scenarios choose either November 1983, when Able Archer 83 nearly turned the world into a cinder, or 1988-89, with the anti-Communist unrest in Eastern Europe which would ultimately end up sweeping the Soviet Union into history. So let me begin telling my partially true and partially fictional story....

I don't know about other wargamers, but I'm more of a campaigner than an impromptu, off-the-cuff battle sort of guy. For me, it's the back story that makes the game. I'm very much a detail-oriented person (German, a Virgo, and an academic - could it be any worse?) and this is reflected in my gaming. To me, it's much less entertaining if you just dump two forces on opposite sides of a bridge or a valley and say "fight it out". I love the contextual stuff. How did these two forces happen to meet here? What is the story of the wider conflict and where does this battle fit into it? How does this battle serve each side's strategic objectives?

So, I've begun to think about the mechanics of my 1981 LANDJUT campaign, Not only from a wargaming perspective, but also as a strategic operation in reality. The first thing that occurs to me is that if I wargame WWIII adhering strictly to what reality would have been, had it really happened, the game will be about 5 mins long. There'll be LOADS of:

and Western Europe will be a glowing, molten, slag heap by the end of the second turn. Game over. Not much fun there. So I have to find a historically plausible way for there to be no nukes. 

The following premises seem reasonable to me:

1. NATO is highly unlikely to initiate the conflict.

2. The Soviets wouldn't initiate a war they felt they had zero chance of winning. 

3. IF they were the victors, the Soviets would've wanted to be able to make use of any territory won. 

4. The Soviets knew full well that even a limited nuclear exchange would render Europe unlivable and thus worthless to them. 

5. The Soviets were keenly aware that any nuclear exchange was extremely unlikely to be or remain "limited". 

Whatever else the Soviets were, they were pragmatists. Limiting a WarPac v. NATO conflict to conventional weapons was in their best interest. Provided NATO didn't go nuclear as a first strike, I doubt the Soviets would've either, at least in my world. WarPac forces had an approximately 3:1 numerical superiority in armored vehicles over NATO and they set great store by that. Rightly or wrongly, the Eastern Bloc planners felt that quantity would win out over quality. Luckily we will never know if they were right.

Likewise, NATO felt that their qualitative superiority more than made up for their lack of numbers. Western Europe was NATO's home (overlooking the US and Canada), so a nuclear first strike by them in the midst of their own countries seems highly unlikely. Again, I feel that provided the Soviets didn't go nuke first, NATO would've fought it out conventionally and relied on their superior technology to win. I feel this same "I won't if you won't" principle would also apply equally to strategic bombing by either side. 

So this will be the foundation of my campaign. Neither side gains by obliterating Europe, nor does either side want to risk a limited nuclear exchange escalating very rapidly into a global thermonuclear war. 

Next time, thoughts on how the two sides line up. 

My iPhone's crappy camera doesn't do justice to the weathering job (or anything else), but you get the idea. Now I need to order some stone walls to enclose the adjoining cemetary. 

In other news, I've finished some 1/285 self-propelled artillery for Vietnam. Two each of CinC's excellent M110's (foreground) and M107's (background):

No crews as yet, but I'll get there. 

I've also painted a few US Army vehicles for early 80's NATO v WarPac. I've used MERDC Europe summer verdant pattern, as that's what everything was painted when I was there:

Two M577's, one an ambulance version:

An M578 and an M88:

And finally, an M548 and an M163 Vulcan:

Only the ambulance has decals, as I don't remember a single vehicle with stars when I was stationed in Germany. Just small white vehicle I.D. numbers in the following pattern:

US ARMY

That's another weekend shot. See you next time!!