ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tier 1 - Predictions

Stats reflect Screenplay categories only!
* = nominated or won in other categories

Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
(never nominated)
MARTY SUPREME

NYFCC win, CCA nom,  Globes nom,

Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
(1 nomination*) 
SENTIMENTAL VALUE

EFA Nominee, CCA nom,  Globes nom, San Francisco,

Ryan Coogler
(never nominated*)
SINNERS

Atlanta, NBR, CCA nom,   Globes nom, AAFCA, Indiana, SEFCA, Toronto,

Jafar Panahi
(never nominated)
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT

EFA Nominee, Gotham win, LAFCA win , Chicago, 
NYFCO, San Diego,
 Globes nom,

Noah Baumbach
(3 noms*) & Emily Mortimer (never nominated)
JAY KELLY

CCA nom,

Robert Kapownever
(never nominated)
BLUE MOON

Boston win,

Eva Victor
(never nominated)
SORRY, BABY

Spirit nomination, CCA nom, 

Kleber Mendoça Filho
(never nominated)
THE SECRET AGENT

Mary Bronstein
(never nominated)
IF I HAD LEGS, I'D KICK YOU

Holly Gent & Vincent Palmo (never nominated)
NOUVELLE VAGUE

Other original screenplays this year (including all that have been honored in some way at festivals or with critics groups

• House of Dynamite - Noah Oppenheim
• Is This Thing On? Cooper (2 noms*) & Arnett (never nominated)
• La Grazia - Paolo Sorrentino EFA NOMINEE
• Lurker -Alex Russell Spirit nomination,
• The Phoenician Scheme - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
• Roofman - Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn
• Sirat - Santiago Fillol, Oliver Laxe EFA NOMINEE
• Sound of Falling - Mascha Schilinski, Louise Peter EFA NOMINEE
• Splitsville Covino & Marvin Spirit nomination,
• The Testament of Ann Lee -Mona Fastvold
• Twinless - James Sweeney Spirit nomination,

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tier 1 - Predictions as of November 11

Stats reflect Screenplay categories only!
* = nominated or won in other categories

P.T. Anderson
(5 noms*)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Loosely based on Tomas Pynchon's novel "Vineland"

noms: CCA ,  Globes
wins: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Indiana, PCC, San Francisco, SEFCA, Toronto,

Chloe Zhao
(1 nom* ) & Maggie O'Farrell (never nominated)
HAMNET
(Focus)

Based on the novel of the same name by Maggie O'Farrell

noms: CCA,  Globes,
wins: --

Guillermo Del Toro

(2 noms*)
FRANKENSTEIN

 Based on the novel "Frankenstein; or, The Modern Prometheus" by Mary Shelley

noms: CCA, 
wins: --

Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar (1 nom each)

TRAIN DREAMS

Based on the novella of the same name by Denis Johnson

noms: CCA
wins: NBR, 

Will Tracy
(never nom'ed)

BUGONIA

Based on Jang Joon-hwan's film & screenplay Save the Green Planet!

noms: CCA
wins: San Diego,

Rian Johnson
(2 noms)
WAKE UP DEAD MAN

Based on characters from the  Knives Out franchise by Rian Johnson

noms: --
wins: --

Park Chan Wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jayhe Lee, Don McKellar
NO OTHER CHOICE

Based on the novel "The Ax" by Donald E Westlake

noms:
CCA, 
wins: --

Nia DaCosta
(never nominated)
HEDDA

 Based on the iconic play "Hedda Gabbler" by Henrik Ibsen

noms: --
wins: --

Harry Lighton
PILLION

Based on "Box Kill" by Adam Mars-Jones

noms: Gotham
wins: Gotham

Winnie Holzman & Dana Fox
WICKED FOR GOOD

Based on the novel by Gregory Maguire and the Broadway musical with music and lyrics by Stephen Schwartz

noms: --
wins: --

Other "Adapted" options this season that are still in awards season conversation

• Avatar Fire and Ash  - James Cameron, Amanda Silver, and based on the characters created by James Cameron
• Ballad of a Small Player - Rowan Joffe based on the novel by Lawrence Osborne
• Deliver Me From Nowhere - Scott Cooper  Based on the nonfiction book "Deliver Me From Nowhere: The Making of Bruce Springsteen's Nebraska" by Warren Zanes
• Highest 2 Lowest -  Spike Lee based on the Akira Kurosawa film High & Low
• Kiss of the Spider Woman - Bill Condon based on the stage musical by Kander & Ebb & Terence McNally and the book by Manuel Puig.
• Song Sung Blue. - Craig Brewer based on the documentary of the same name about a Neil DIamond Tribute Band.