Oscar Predictions
for the 98th Academy Awards
2025 FILM YEAR / 2026 OSCAR CEREMONY
CURRENT DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THIS RACE

PICTURE

BUGONIA
•
FRANKENSTEIN
•
HAMNET
•
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
•
MARTY SUPREME
•
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
•
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
•
SINNERS
•
TRAIN DREAMS
•
WICKED FOR GOOD

ACTRESS

BUCKLEY
Hamnet
•
BYRNE
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
•
HUDSON
Song Sung Blue
•
REINSVE
Sentimental Value
•
STONE
Bugonia

ACTOR

CHALAMET
Marty Supreme
•
DICAPRIO
One Battle After Another
•
EDGERTON
Train Dreams
•
HAWKE
Blue Moon
•
MOURA
Secret Agent

DIRECTOR 

ANDERSON
One Battle After Another
•
COOGLER
Sinners
•
PANAHI
It Was Just An Accident
•
SAFDIE
Marty Supreme
•
TRIER
Sentimental Value

CASTING

MARTY SUPREME
Venditti
•
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Kulukundis
•
SINNERS
Maisler
•
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Kaufman & Haga
•
WEAPONS
Jones

SUPPORTING
ACTRESS

FANNING
Sentimental Value
•
INFINITI
One Battle After Another
•
LILLEAAS
Sentimental Value
•
MADIGAN
Weapons
•
TAYLOR
One Battle After Another

SUPPORTING
ACTOR 

DEL TORO
One Battle After Another
•
ELORDI
Frankenstein
•
MESCAL
Hamnet
•
PENN
One Battle After Another
•
SKARSGÅRD
Sentimental Value

ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY

Panahi
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
•
Baumbach & Mortimer
JAY KELLY
•
Bronstein & Safdie
MARTY SUPREME
•
Trier
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
•
Coogler
SINNERS

ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY

Tracy
BUGONIA
•
Del Toro
FRANKENSTEIN
•
O'Farrell & Zhao
HAMNET
•
Anderson
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
•
Bentley & Kwedar
TRAIN DREAMS

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Laustsen
FRANKENSTEIN
•
Zal
HAMNET
•
Bauman
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
•
Arkapaw
SINNERS
•
Veloso
TRAIN DREAMS

COSTUME DESIGN

Hawley
FRANKENSTEI
•
Turzanska
HAMNET
•
Ogawa
KOKUHO
•
Carter
SINNERS
•
Tazewell
WICKED FOR GOOD

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Deverell
FRANKENSTEIN
•
Crombie
HAMNET
•
Fisk
MARTY SUPREME
•
Beachler
SINNERS
•
Crowley
WICKED FOR GOOD

FILM EDITING

Mirrione
F1: THE MOVIE
•
Goncalves & Zhao
HAMNET
•
Bronstein
MARTY SUPREME
•
Jurgensen
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
•
Shawyer
SINNERS

MAKEUP & HAIR

Hill, Samuel, Newburn
FRANKENSTEIN
•
KOKUHO
•
Hiro
THE SMASHING MACHINE
•
Diaz, Richards, Fontaine
SINNERS
•
Coulier
WICKED FOR GOOD

VISUAL EFFECTS

AVATAR FIRE AND ASH
•
F1
•
FRANKENSTEIN
•
JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH
•
TRON ARES

ORIGINAL SCORE

Desplat
FRANKENSTEIN
•
Richter
HAMNET
•
Greenwood
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
•
Goransson
SINNERS
•
Dressner
TRAIN DREAMS

ORIGINAL SONG 

"Dear Me"
DIANE WARREN: RELENTLESS
•
"Golden"
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
•
"I Lied To You"
SINNERS
•
"Train Dreams"
TRAIN DREAMS
•
"Girl in the Bubble"
WICKED FOR GOOD

SOUND

INTERNATIONAL FILM 

Argentina
BELEN
•
France
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
•
Brazil
THE SECRET AGENT
•
Norway
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
•
Tunisia
THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB

ANIMATED FILM

Neon
ARCO
•
Netflix
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
•
GKids
LITTLE AMELIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN
•
Sony Pictures Classics
MAGNIFICENT LIFE
•
Disney
ZOOTOPIA 2

DOCUMENTARY

Chernov
2000 METERS TO ANDRIIVKA
•
Costa
APOCALYPSE IN THE TROPICS
•
Poitras & Obenhaus
COVER-UP
•
Borenstein & Talankin
MR NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN
•
Ganbdhir
THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR

SHORTS, DOCUMENTARY

ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS
•
ALL THE WALLS CAME DOWN
•
CHILDREN NO MORE: WERE AND ARE GONE
•
CLASSROOM 4
•
ROVINA'S CHOICE

SHORTS,
LIVE ACTION

ADO
•
THE BOY WITH WHITE SKIN
•
JANE AUSTEN'S PERIOD DRAMA
•
ROCK PAPER SCISSORS
•
THE SINGERS

SHORTS,
ANIMATED

FOREVER GREEN
•
THE GIRL WHO CRIED PEARLS
•
THE NIGHT BOOTS
•
PLAYING GOD
•
THE SHYNESS OF TREES

sound off on the Oscar race

PREDICTED TALLIES
International Wildcards: Kokuho & Sirat.. They both might make International but could also surprise in craft categories ...or not. Coin toss! If there's a third under/over performer subtitled feature it's The Secret Agent though that one has far less of a chance of a complete shut-out. It's widely predicted to hit both Actor & International but it could theoretically overperform in a major way (possibilities include: Editing, Screenplay, Casting, Director).

American Wildcards: Wicked For Good and Train Dreams both feel up in the air as to how they might do. Wicked is losing ground while Train Dreams is gaining. Could be anywhere from 3-8 nominations from either.

I've currently predicted One Battle and Sinners to hoover up nominations -- and both could well tie the all time record of 14 nods though I haven't quite predicted that. I fear Frankenstein might join them in the double digit nominations though it's far less deserving than those two.

13 noms
One Battle After Another (+1 since November update)

12 noms
Sinners (+4 since November update)

9 noms
Frankenstein (+2)
Hamnet (-1)

8 noms
Sentimental Value (+2)

7 noms
Marty Supreme (-3)

6 noms
Train Dreams (+2)

5 noms
Wicked For Good (=)

4 noms
It Was Just An Accident (+2)

3 noms
Bugonia (+1) Best Picture with Least Nominations Prediction
F1: The Movie (+1) Most Nominations without Best Picture Citation Prediction

2 noms
Avatar: Fire and Ash (-1)
Kokuho (+2)
KPop Demon Hunters (=)
The Secret Agent (-3)
Weapons (=)

1 nom
2000 Meters to Andriivka (=)
Belen (+1)
Blue Moon (-2)
Cover-Up (=)
Diane Warren: Relentless (=)
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (=)
Jay Kelly (-3)
Jurassic World Rebirth (=)
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (=)
Magnificent Life (=)
Sirat (+1)
The Smashing Machine (=)
Tron Ares (=)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (=)
Zootopia 2 (=)

Shut Out Entirely - though I sincerely hope I'm wrong in a couple of these cases
Dead Man's Wire, Die My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps , Hedda, House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, Is This Thing On?, Kiss of the Spider-Woman, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man