WO2008017200A1 - A method for predicting sales opportunity and account potential and the computer system thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

A sale prediction method and system which main characters are: using the past sales opportunity item of one customer as main data analysis source; classifying these important data to grip the corresponding pattern of each past sales opportunity item of the customer, and thereby estimating sale opportunity successful chance rate of the customer up to a certain sale scope even the whole entertainment.

Description

 Sales opportunity and account potential prediction method and computer system thereof

 The present invention is a complete sales forecasting system and method, and in particular, in a business environment in which external economic and industrial environmental factors are constantly changing, the company's sales forecast can still maintain a very high degree of accuracy. Background technique

 Accurate sales forecasts are very important for any company or business. In the past, in the process of sales forecasting, the heads of business departments of the enterprise often used the specific forecasting procedures to predict future sales results and sales based on the past sales results of the products. These traditional methods include the Moving Average Technique, the Exponential Smoothing Model, or the Regression Model.

 In addition, there are suppliers that provide more advanced data analysis systems and methods in order to achieve better prediction results. The method and system for comparing the results are the Demand Forecasting Method, Demand Forecasting System, and recording medium (US Patent No. 6032125) invented by Fujitsu Limited and Method and Apparatus suitable for Demand Forecasting (invented by International Business Machines Corporation) US Patent No. 6976001).

The method and device invented by Fujitsu Limited is characterized by collecting the sales results of a product for several weeks as the main analysis data, plus the analysis of the sales results of the same period in different years to assist, and then through some specific analysis methods. , using three groups ( "a few weeks", "months" and "years") related to sales data to identify the other ^one is calculated) the sales model (sales pattern), and then to predict future sales of the product according to the sales model Happening.

 Similarly, IBM Corporation's invention method and system is based on product data analysis. The main feature is to select a certain product (product A) as the first group of product data, and then divide the sales result of the product data into Different "variety categories", "sizes, and "sales locations" are analyzed to identify (calculate) the sales model (Sales Pattem).

At the same time, choose another product similar to "Product A" (Product B) as the second group of data (and Product A and Product B need to be sold at the same place), identify and calculate through continuous comparison and analysis. ) Sales model (Sales Pattem). And since Product A and Product B are sold at the same location, Outside the sales factors (such as the seasonal sales model, the speed sales model brought by the price reduction), so by analyzing the sales patterns of the first group and the second group of data, the external factors can be effectively found, and the future is predicted. The degree of interference in the sales situation, thus adjusting the forecast of future sales.

 Based on the above points, the existing sales forecasting design and methods mainly use the past sales orders of a certain product for analysis, and rely on the relevant data (time, location, item and category, etc.) of the order to carry out the pattern. analysis. This approach is basically static, which assumes that a product in the past has a repetitive inertia under certain circumstances (including time).

 However, due to the fierce market competition, the market is constantly open, product information circulation continues to increase and the unique advantages of individual products continue to be shorter and shorter, so buyers can more easily find similar products than live. Or service), therefore, the amount of customer loss can be large, and there is not necessarily a fixed sales model to trace.

 This is equivalent to saying that last year's buyers did not necessarily repeat the order, and the size of the order may not be the same as last year. The key point is that this dynamic status requires the sales party to constantly understand the customer's needs, including the customer's (buyer) related data pattern (Pattern) in order to achieve the highest performance sales analysis and forecast. result. Summary of the invention

 The main purpose of the present invention is to provide a customer-oriented sales forecasting method and system, so that the company can better understand the customer's past trading patterns in a highly competitive environment, and can more easily grasp and estimate the customer's future. Give sales opportunities to the company.

The high-sales performance sales forecasting method proposed by the present invention mainly includes selecting a customer account as a forecast account and a time period as a sales forecast period; and reading the past all sales opportunity items corresponding to the customer account (Sales Opportunity Item, Referred to as SOI) related data; after a defined sales opportunity project classification process, each sales opportunity project uses the customer-related data of the sales opportunity project to calculate a corresponding classification level of the corresponding sales opportunity item at the time; meanwhile, according to each sales The business opportunity project and the relevant data of the customer at that time calculate a corresponding customer classification level at that time; the data of each sales opportunity project, including the calculated sales opportunity project classification level and customer classification level, analyzes the account potential, and outputs the results; From the proposal of multiple analysis results, select at least one account offer; then, according to the selected account proposal, to formulate each future sales opportunity project in the previous specified time period, the success chance rate in the subsequent period and its predicted sales ; The forecast of sales opportunities every chance of success calculated rate specified period of project sales add up, that is, the account total forecast sales in the specified time period. After the completion of an account forecast, the next customer account is repeatedly selected and predicted, repeated until all the accounts within the jurisdictional sales range have been completed, and then each calculated success rate under the jurisdictional sales range is calculated. The predicted sales of the sales opportunity project are added together, which is the total forecasted sales of the jurisdictional sales range for the specified time period.

 Another feature of the present invention is a sales forecasting method implemented by using a computer system, which mainly includes the following steps: inputting a customer account as a forecast account and a time period as a sales forecast period; reading the customer database and the sales opportunity project database The customer account corresponds to all previous sales opportunity data related to the business opportunity; After a defined sales opportunity project classification process, each sales opportunity project uses the customer related data of the sales opportunity project to calculate a corresponding sales at the time through the central processor Business item! ] classification level; at the same time, according to each sales opportunity project and the relevant data of the customer at the time, the central processor calculates a corresponding customer classification level at that time, and the data of each sales opportunity item, including the calculated sales opportunity item classification level and The customer classification level is used to analyze the account potential, and the analysis results are output and displayed; from the plurality of analysis results, 4 are selected, at least one account proposal is selected; and according to the selected account proposal, each future sales opportunity project in the specified time period is determined. The chance of success in the subsequent period and its predicted sales; the predicted sales of each of the sales opportunity items that have calculated the chance of success in the specified time period are the total forecast sales of the account during the specified time period. amount.

 After the completion of an account forecast, the next customer account is repeatedly selected and predicted, repeated until all the accounts within the jurisdictional sales range have been completed, and then each calculated success rate under the jurisdictional sales range is calculated. The predicted sales of the sales opportunity project are added together, which is the total forecasted sales of the jurisdictional sales range for the specified time period.

A further improvement of the present invention is to provide a sales forecasting computer system, which mainly comprises: a customer database, the stored data includes basic data of the customer; a sales opportunity project database, and the stored data includes data related to the customer sales opportunity item; The processor can accept the program to perform the following functions: input a customer account from the customer database as a forecast account and a time period as a sales forecast period; read from the sales opportunity project database, read the previous all sales opportunity items corresponding to the customer account Data; After a defined sales opportunity project classification process, each sales opportunity project uses the customer-related data of the sales opportunity project to calculate a corresponding classification level of the corresponding sales opportunity item through the central processor; meanwhile, according to each sales The business opportunity project and related data of the customer at that time are calculated by the central processor at a corresponding customer classification level at that time, and the data of each sales opportunity project, including the calculated sales opportunity classification level and customer classification level. Perform account potential analysis and the results to be output display; results from multiple analysis of the proposal In the middle, select at least one account offer; according to the selected account proposal, to formulate each future sales opportunity item in the specified time period, the success rate of the subsequent period and its predicted sales amount; each of the specified time periods has been The predicted sales of the sales opportunity items that calculate the chance of success are added together, which is the total forecasted sales of the account for the specified time period.

 After the completion of an account forecast, the next customer account is repeatedly selected and predicted, repeated until all the accounts within the jurisdictional sales range have been completed, and then each calculated success rate under the jurisdictional sales range is calculated. The predicted sales of the sales opportunity project are added together, which is the total forecasted sales of the jurisdictional sales range for the specified time period. DRAWINGS

 Figure 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;

 Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the relationship, the low degree of mutual trust communication mode in the coefficient;

 Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the medium-degree mutual trust communication mode in the "relationship" coefficient;

 Figure 4 is a schematic diagram of a high degree of mutual trust communication mode in the "relationship" coefficient;

 Figure 5 is a schematic diagram of a very high degree of mutual trust communication mode in the "relationship" coefficient;

 Figure 6 is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive analysis chart of the sales opportunity project at the customer account level;

 Figure Ί is a data plot of the relevant data for the hypothetical 10 sales opportunity projects;

 Figure 8 is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive analysis chart of the sales opportunity project at the customer account level after the sales opportunity project is filled in.

 Figure 9 is a schematic diagram of highlighting all sales opportunity items by line and color;

 10 is a schematic diagram of a proposal for displaying a plurality of different account development trends by segmentation lines; FIG. 11 is a schematic diagram showing a proposal for achieving a maximum opportunity in the future by a common line; FIG. 12 is a plan for filling in future sales opportunities and Schematic diagram of the comprehensive analysis chart of the sales opportunity project at the customer account level after the relevant data;

 Figure 13 is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive analysis of product (service) line sales at the customer account level; Figure 14 is a schematic diagram of eight different levels governing the sales range;

 Figure 15 is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive analysis chart of a high-level sales opportunity project;

 Figure 16 is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive analysis chart of product (service) line sales at a higher level;

 Figure 17 is a schematic diagram of a sales forecasting computer system.

 Implementation

The following is an example of a specific embodiment of the present invention, in which the steps and data involved are appropriately modified in different implementations. The main operational steps of the method of the invention (Fig. 1) include:

 Step 01: Select one (or more) customer accounts to become the target forecast account, and select a future time period to become the "sales forecast period." The sales forecast period can be set to short-term, medium-term or long-term. In general, short-term sales The forecast period is about one month to three months, the medium-term sales forecast period is about three months to one year, and the long-term sales forecast period is about one to five years.

 Step 02: Collect data about one (or more) “Target Forecast Account” for all successful transactions, unsuccessful transactions, and ongoing Sales Opportunity Item (SOI). Including the name of the sales opportunity project, the name of the customer account to which the sales opportunity item belongs, the start date of the opportunity, the category of the product (or service) line to which the product (or service) belongs, the category of the product (or service), the product (or service) Quantity, product (or service) sales (or target sales), buyer (customer) and seller (supplier) trust relationship, buyer's demand differentiation, use of the product (or service) purchased by the buyer Long distance, sales opportunity item, end date and the sales stage at the end, the result of the end of the sales opportunity item, the reason of the result of the end of the sales opportunity item, the source of the sales opportunity item, the number of days of the sales opportunity item, and the sales process schedule.

 Step 03: Collect the four core sales opportunity attributes (Core Sales Opportunity Attribute, CSOA for all sales opportunity items in the target forecast account, including the sales of the product (or service), the buyer (customer) and the seller (supplier) The degree of mutual trust, the degree of differentiation of buyer demand, and the long distance of use of the product (or service) purchased by the buyer. Then through the quantitative methods and procedures, the content of the core sales opportunity project attributes becomes the core sales opportunity item attribute coefficient. The detailed steps of the quantification method and procedure are as follows

 The sales method (hereinafter referred to as the "sales" factor) of the product (or service) is quantified and the procedure is as follows:

 "Sales, the level of the coefficient depends on the sales (or target sales) involved in the sales opportunity project. In general, the "sales," coefficient classification mechanism in the sales opportunity classification process will be specific During the period (for example, the period of the fiscal year), all successful sales of business opportunity items are ranked in terms of turnover from large to small, and then the minimum turnover of the 1% of the sales opportunity items with the largest turnover is set to The standard for the "sales" factor of the four-level sales opportunity project.

 In the top 2%-5% of the sales opportunity projects with the largest turnover, the minimum turnover is set as the third-level sales opportunity item "sales" coefficient.

In the first 6%-20% of the sales opportunity projects with the largest turnover, the minimum turnover is set as the second-level sales opportunity item "Sales, the coefficient of the standard. Finally, in the first 21-100% of the sales opportunity projects with the largest turnover, the minimum turnover is set as the first-level sales opportunity item "Sales, the coefficient of the standard. (In general, this coefficient The standard will be set to "0".)

 The method of quantification of the coefficient of mutual trust between the buyer (customer) and the seller (supplier) (hereinafter referred to as the "relationship" coefficient) is as follows:

 The level of the "relationship" factor depends on the level of mutual trust between the purchasing team members involved in the sales opportunity project and the supplier sales team members. Under normal circumstances, the "relationship" coefficient grading mechanism in the process of categorizing sales opportunity items is a representative of the supplier sales team member (referred to as the seller representative), and the representative of the purchasing team member (referred to as the buyer representative) is judged by objective conditions. The degree of mutual trust in the supplier's overall (enterprise, product, support services, and sales teams).

 If the communication model between the seller and the buyer is a low-level mutual trust communication model (Figure 2), and has a low degree of mutual trust communication characteristics (such as peer-to-peer as the main business communication mode, business communication with low mutual trust mode, only willing to arrange low-level Employees negotiate business with suppliers, are only willing to provide suppliers with a small amount of internal information, are only willing to provide suppliers with a small amount of future purchase plans and are only willing to cooperate with suppliers in the process.) Can be judged as the first level of sales opportunity project "purchase the relationship between the team and the supplier, the coefficient of the standard.

 If the communication model of the representatives of both buyers and sellers belongs to the medium-level mutual trust communication mode (Figure 2), and has the characteristics of medium-level mutual trust communication (such as group-to-group as the main business communication mode, business communication with mode of moderate mutual trust, willingness Arrange for middle-level employees to conduct business negotiations with suppliers, be willing to provide relevant internal information to suppliers and be willing to provide suppliers with relevant future (short-term) purchase plans and willing to cooperate with suppliers on the process to a limited extent) It can be judged as the standard of the coefficient of "purchasing team and supplier mutual trust relationship" of the second-level sales opportunity project.

 If the communication model of the representatives of the seller and the buyer is a high-level mutual trust communication mode (Figure 3), and has a high degree of mutual trust communication characteristics (such as a formal team to the formal team as the main business communication mode, business communication with a high degree of mutual trust, Willing to arrange high-level employees to negotiate business with suppliers, are willing to provide suppliers with a large amount of information within the company, are willing to provide suppliers with relevant future (interim) purchase plans and are willing to make greater cooperation with suppliers in the process) It can be judged as the standard of the third-level sales opportunity project "purchasing team and supplier mutual trust relationship" coefficient.

If the communication model between the seller and the buyer is a very high level of mutual trust communication mode (Figure 4), and has a high degree of mutual trust communication characteristics (such as the full-time consultative group type as the main business communication mode, business communication with a high degree of mutual trust) Willing to arrange high-level employees to negotiate business with suppliers, be willing to provide suppliers with a large amount of internal information and are willing to provide relevant future (long-term) purchases to suppliers. The purchase plan is willing to cooperate with the supplier in the process to determine the coefficient of the fourth-level sales opportunity project "buy the relationship between the team and the supplier".

 The method of quantify the degree of differentiation of the buyer's demand (hereinafter referred to as "differentiation, coefficient") and the procedure are as follows:

 "Differentiation, the level of the coefficient depends on the degree of differentiation of the customer needs (or products and services) involved in the sales opportunity project. In general, the "differentiation, coefficient grading mechanism" in the sales opportunity classification process It is necessary for the seller's representative to judge the buyer's representative by objective conditions and the degree of demand for differentiation.

 If the buyer represents a higher standard of demand, is more price sensitive, has lower requirements for business personnel, and has lower requirements for supplier support, it can be judged as the difference in customer demand for the first level of sales opportunity project. The degree of "coefficient of the standard.

 If the buyer represents a demanding product or standard product plus additional services, the price sensitivity is medium to high, the requirements for business personnel are low to medium, and the supplier's enterprise support requirements are judged from low to medium. The standard for the degree of differentiation of customer demand for the second-level sales opportunity project.

 If the buyer represents a product with a special feature or a standard product with a larger characteristic additional service, the sensitivity of the price is low to medium, the requirements for the business personnel are medium to high, and the enterprise support requirements for the supplier are medium to high. It can be judged as the standard of the "degree of differentiation of customer demand" coefficient of the third-level sales opportunity project.

 If the buyer represents a very distinctive product or standard product with very distinctive additional services, low price sensitivity, high demand for business personnel, and high demand for supplier support, It is judged as the standard of the fourth-level sales opportunity project "degree of differentiation of customer demand".

 The method and procedure for quantifying the long-distance coefficient (hereinafter referred to as the "use period" factor) of the product (or service) purchased by the buyer is as follows:

 The level of the "use time" factor depends on the length of the "use period" involved in the "sales opportunity project". In general, the “use time period” coefficient grading mechanism in the sales opportunity project classification process requires the seller's representative to judge the length of the use period of the product (or service) purchased by the buyer by objective conditions.

If the buyer purchases the product (or service) for the purpose of "solving the short-term (incidental) demand", it can be judged as the standard of the first-level sales opportunity item "product use period" coefficient. If the buyer purchases the product (or service) for the purpose of "solving the long-term demand, it can be judged as the second-level sales opportunity project "product time period" coefficient standard.

 If the buyer purchases the product (or service) for the purpose of “solving the long-term needs of the business operation level, it can be judged as the third-level sales opportunity project “product time period” coefficient standard.

 If the buyer purchases the product (or service) for the purpose of “solving the long-term needs of the functional level of the enterprise value chain, it can be judged as the standard period of use of the four-level sales opportunity product, the standard of the coefficient.

 Finally, the level of each sales opportunity item is determined by the sales opportunity project classification process. The first level (level value equal to 1) belongs to the "low level, commercial value of the sales opportunity project, which is defined as the four factors of the sales opportunity item, and the level of one (or more) of the coefficients belongs to the "first level".

 The second level (level value equal to 2) belongs to the "medium degree, commercial value of the sales opportunity project, which is defined as the four factors of the sales opportunity item, one of the coefficient(s) of the coefficient belongs to the "second level", At the same time, the level without one (or more) of the coefficients belongs to the "first level".

 The third level (level value equal to 3) belongs to the "high degree, commercial value of the sales opportunity project, which is defined as the four factors of the sales opportunity item, one of which (the number of factors) belongs to the "third level," , while no one (or more) of the coefficients belong to or below the "second level,".

 The fourth level (level value equals 4) is a sales opportunity project of "very high degree" commercial value, which is defined as four factors of the sales opportunity D, three of which must include "sales,, coefficient" "The fourth level,,, and the following coefficients belong to the third level,.

 Step 04: Calculate the "accumulated sales opportunity item level" coefficient according to the "sales opportunity item level" of each sales opportunity item and calculate the "cumulative sales total amount" based on the "sales total amount" of each sales opportunity item, The coefficient, then through the customer classification level process, determines the "customer classification level" for each sales opportunity item.

 The calculation method and procedure of the "level of cumulative sales opportunity" factor are as follows:

 "The level of cumulative sales opportunity items, the level of the coefficient depends on the "customer account number," the average of the groups of all sales opportunity items for a specific period of time involved. The calculation procedure for its coefficients is as follows:

D = {∑ x ^) }÷ C

A=Group value of each sales opportunity item

B = sales for each sales opportunity project C = total sales of all sales opportunities

 D = level factor for cumulative sales opportunity items

 "Accumulative total sales, the calculation method and procedure of the coefficient are as follows:

 The level of the "cumulative sales total" factor depends on the "accumulated total sales," in the customer account. In general, the cumulative sales total in the customer classification level process, the coefficient grouping mechanism, will be within a specific period of time. All customer accounts with at least one successful transaction record are ranked in terms of cumulative total sales.

 Then, among the top 1% of the customer accounts with the largest accumulated sales amount, the minimum cumulative sales amount is set as the standard of the fourth-level customer account "cumulative sales total" coefficient.

 Then, among the top 2%-5% of the customer accounts with the largest cumulative sales amount, the minimum cumulative sales amount is set as the third-level customer account "cumulative sales total, the coefficient standard."

 The minimum cumulative total sales amount of the first 6%-20% of the customer accounts with the largest accumulated sales amount is set as the standard of the second-level customer account "cumulative sales total" coefficient.

 Finally, the minimum cumulative sales total of the first 21-100% of the customer accounts with the largest accumulated sales amount is set as the standard of the first-level customer account "cumulative sales total" coefficient. (In general, the standard for this coefficient will not be set to "0".)

 Finally, the customer classification level process is determined by the customer classification level process. In the customer classification process, all customer accounts are divided into seven levels according to the coefficient group of their two core attributes (Primaiy Attributes). The two core attributes are the "accumulated sales opportunity project level" coefficient. Total sales "coefficient.

 In the customer classification level mechanism, the seventh level (level value, etc. 7) is an existing customer with a very high commercial value, which is defined as the cumulative sales total factor of the customer account belongs to the fourth level, and the level factor of the cumulative sales opportunity item is Between 3.26 and 4.00.

 The sixth level (level value, etc. 6) is an existing customer with a high degree of commercial value, which is defined as the cumulative total sales factor of the customer account belongs to the third level, and the level of the cumulative sales opportunity item is between 2.50 and 3.25.

 The fifth level (level value 5) is an existing customer of medium-level commercial value, which is defined as the cumulative sales total factor of the customer account belongs to the second level, and the level factor of the cumulative sales opportunity item is between 1.75 and 2.49.

The fourth level (level value, etc. 4) is an existing customer with a low degree of commercial value, which is defined as the cumulative sales total factor of the customer account belongs to the "first level", and the level factor of the cumulative sales opportunity item is between 1.00 and 1.74. . The third level (level value, etc. 3) is a non-existing customer with a high degree of commercial value, which is defined as the sales opportunity item of the customer account without any successful transaction within a certain period of time, but at least one successful transaction before a certain period of time Sales opportunity project.

 The second level (level value equals 2) is a non-existing customer of medium-level commercial value, defined as a sales opportunity item that the customer account has failed to close at least once in a certain period of time.

 The first level (level value equals 1) is a non-existing customer with a low level of commercial value, defined as that the customer account has no sales opportunity at all for a certain period of time. However, the supplier estimates that the product or service it provides can satisfy the purchase requirements of that customer account.

 Step 05: Put all the sales target opportunities of the "Target Forecast Account" (successfully completed, unsuccessful transactions and in progress) according to their "sales opportunity classification level, "customer classification level" and start date Secondly, according to the principle of bottom-up, right-to-left, fill in the "customer account level of the comprehensive analysis of the sales opportunity project, the correct position.

 The analysis consists of seven "rows" and four "columns" (Column). The seven "row" positions are arranged from bottom to top, and the relevant assets of the sales opportunity items of different customer classification levels are recorded separately. The first line records the relevant assets of the sales opportunity item of the first customer classification level, the second line records the relevant assets of the sales opportunity item of the second customer classification level, and the third line records the sales of the third customer classification level. The relevant assets of the business opportunity project, the fourth line is to record the relevant assets of the fourth customer classification sales business opportunity project, the fifth line is to record the relevant assets of the fifth customer classification sales business opportunity project, the sixth line is the record number The relevant assets of the six customer classification sales business opportunity projects, the seventh line is to record the relevant assets of the seventh customer classification sales business opportunity project. The four "column" positions are arranged from right to left, and the relevant assets of the sales opportunity items of different sales opportunity item classification levels are recorded separately. The first column records the relevant assets of the sales opportunity project at the first sales opportunity item level, the second column records the relevant assets of the sales opportunity item at the second sales opportunity item level, and the third column records the third sales opportunity item. The relevant assets of the level sales opportunity project, the fourth column is the relevant assets of the sales opportunity project at the fourth sales opportunity item level, so there are a total of 28 large grids.

The naming scheme of the large grid is interpreted by two unit numbers. The unit number on the left represents the "row" position, and the unit number on the right represents the "column," bits, which are arranged according to the principle of bottom-up and right-left. At the same time, there are six more fifteen small cells in each large grid (Figure 6). The main function of the small grid is to record the relevant assets of each sales opportunity project, including the priority of the sales opportunity project, and the business opportunity begins. The date, the end date of the business opportunity and the end of the business opportunity. (We assume that there are ten sales opportunity projects in the target forecast account in a certain period of time (Figure 7). At the same time, we also put the ten sellers according to the above guidelines. The machine project and related assets are filled in the "Comprehensive position of the sales opportunity project at the customer account level," (Figure 8).

 Step 06: On the "Comprehensive Analysis Chart of Sales Opportunity Projects at the Customer Account Level", clearly display all the successfully sold sales opportunity items with "color" highlighting; "Red, highlights to show clearly; put all the ongoing sales opportunities, "Pink,, highlights, clearly displayed. At the same time, through the "straight line, all the sales opportunity projects are connected to clearly show the "target forecast account," the transaction characteristics and trends. The end point of the line is marked with a pointed end, the starting point of the line is marked by the circle as the mark of the successfully sold sales opportunity item, the prism is used as the mark of the sales opportunity item that has not been successfully sold, and the straight line is used as the ongoing sales. Mark of the opportunity project (Figure 9).

 Based on the analysis of the relevant assets, location distribution patterns and repetitive patterns of the sales opportunity projects on the "Customer Account Level Comprehensive Analysis Chart of Customer Account Levels", it is estimated that a number of different account development trends are proposed, and The "segment line" (straight segment line, curved segment line or loop segment line) is shown on the analysis chart (Figure 10).

 Then, analyze the future account strategy that the customer account is implementing, the future sales strategy that the sales territory to which the customer account belongs, the future sales strategy that the customer account belongs to (or the market segment), the future sales strategy being implemented, and the future. In the economic environment factors and future industry environmental factors, to predict a maximum opportunity to achieve the hukou development trend in the future, and through a set of "ordinary lines" (straight ordinary lines, curved ordinary lines or circular ordinary lines) are shown in the analysis On the map (Figure 11).

 Step 07: Estimate future sales opportunities based on the selection of a maximum opportunity to achieve the future development trend of the account, and according to the selected forecast period, based on the sales opportunity record of the same period of the previous year (or the previous quarter). The number of items of the project, and the "sales opportunity class classification level," and "customer classification level" of each future sales opportunity project, and the priority of the start date, in accordance with the principle of bottom-up, right-to-left, In the correct position on the "Comprehensive Analysis of Sales Opportunity Projects at the Customer Account Level", and clearly highlight all future sales opportunity projects with "gray" highlighting (Figure 12). Also calculate each future sales opportunity project. The target sales are calculated as follows:

To be a customer account, all successful sales and sales opportunities in a specific period of time, ranked in large to small, and then the top 1% of the sales opportunity project with the largest turnover as the core, calculate each sales The "average sales" of the business opportunity project becomes the fourth-level sales opportunity project "average sales", which is the fourth-level sales opportunity project "target turnover". Then, taking the top 2%-5% of the sales opportunity projects with the largest turnover as the core, calculate the "average sales of each sales opportunity project, and become the third-level sales opportunity project "average sales", that is, become The third level of sales opportunity project "target turnover,,.

 Then, taking the top 6%-20% of the sales opportunity projects with the largest turnover as the core, calculate the "average sales" of each sales opportunity project, and become the second-level sales opportunity project "average sales," The second level of sales opportunity project "target turnover,,.

 Then, taking the top 21%-100% of the sales opportunity projects with the largest turnover as the core, calculate the "average sales of each sales opportunity project, and become the first-level sales opportunity project "average sales", that is, become The first level of sales opportunity project "target turnover,,.

 Step 08: According to the "target turnover" of all future sales opportunity projects on the "Comprehensive Analysis Chart of Sales Opportunity at Customer Account Level", and in conjunction with "Sales Opportunity Success Rate", to predict the actual value of each future sales opportunity project. Target turnover amount."

 Calculate the success rate of the sales opportunity when the sales opportunity is different from the sales level (first to fourth level).

 A1 = B1 ÷ C1

 A1 = the success rate of the sales opportunity project at this level

 B1 = number of sold sales opportunity items at this level

 C1 = total number of sales opportunity items at this level

 Calculate the success rate of the sales opportunity when the sales opportunity is at different customer account levels (second to seventh levels).

 D1 = E1 ÷ F1

 D1 = Transaction success rate when the sales opportunity item is at this level of customer account

 E1 = number of sold sales opportunity items for the customer account at this level

 F1 = the total number of sold sales opportunity items for the customer account at this level

 Add up the "actual target turnover" of all future sales opportunity projects to become the future total sales of the "target forecast account", and fill in the total sales amount in the "customer account level comprehensive analysis of sales opportunity projects" In the upper part of the "gray" long square.

Then, based on the "target turnover amount, and then the "transaction success rate" of all ongoing sales business opportunities on the "customer account level sales opportunity project comprehensive analysis chart", to predict each ongoing sales opportunity project. "The actual target turnover,,. Add up the "actual target turnover" of all ongoing sales opportunities to become an ongoing sales opportunity for the "target forecast account" The total sales of the project, and the total sales amount is filled in the "pink" long square in the upper part of the "Comprehensive Analysis Chart of Sales Opportunity Items at the Customer Account Level".

 Then calculate the total sales of the "target forecast account" for all the sales opportunity items that cannot be successfully sold within a certain period of time (that is, the total sales of the unsuccessful sales opportunity items that become the "target forecast account"), and The total sales amount is included in the "red" long square in the upper part of the "Comprehensive Analysis Chart of Sales Opportunity Items at the Customer Account Level".

 Then calculate the total sales of all the successfully sold sales opportunity items in the "target forecast account" for a certain period of time (ie, the total sales of the successfully sold sales opportunity items that become the "target forecast account"), And the total sales amount is filled in the "brown" long square in the upper part of the "Comprehensive Analysis Chart of Sales Opportunity Items at the Customer Account Level".

 In addition, if you need to use the product (service) line as the axis, analyze the characteristics and trends of the completed, unsuccessful, current, and future sales opportunity projects of the “Target Forecast Account”. Each "customer classification level," all of the "sales opportunity items classified into another" sales opportunity project, the product (service) line can be newly divided, and then the sales opportunity of the business opportunity project (completed, can not be sold) , the percentage of current and future sales opportunity projects in each product (service) line category), according to the "customer classification level, and" product (service) line category, (in the example, assume that the company has five products (Service line category), filled in the large grid of "Comprehensive analysis of product (service) line sales at the customer account level". In the four small squares in each large grid, "Brown, the function of the small grid is to record the percentage of the sold sales opportunity items in each product (service) line category, the function of the "red" small square Is to record the percentage of the sales opportunity items that cannot be sold in each product (service) line category. The function of the "pink" small grid is to record the percentage of the current sales opportunity items in each product (service) line category, " The function of the gray "small grid" is to record the percentage of the current sales opportunity item in each product (service) line category (Figure 13).

 Step 09: After a "target forecast account" completes the forecast, it will repeatedly select the next customer account and make a forecast, repeat until ^ has established all the "target forecast accounts within the scope of sales, complete, and then put the jurisdiction sales scope The following total sales of the "target forecasting account", the incomplete transaction, the current in-progress and the future sales opportunity of the sales opportunity project are added together, that is, the jurisdictional sales range has been completed, cannot be sold, and now Total sales of ongoing and future sales opportunities.

After that, the data of the above-mentioned sales opportunity project is based on the "customer classification level, and the "sales business opportunity item classification level", the sales sales scope of the "sales business project comprehensive analysis map" and "product (service) line sales integration Analyze the graph, in the four small squares in the big grid, "Brown, small grid function It is to record the data of the sold sales opportunity items. The function of the "red" small square is to record the data of the sales opportunity items that cannot be sold. "Pink, the function of the small square is to record the current sales opportunity items. Data, the function of the "grey" small grid is to record the data of the current sales opportunity project.

 In general, the jurisdictional sales scope will be divided into eight different levels according to industry characteristics or enterprise characteristics (Figure M). For example, the first level (the most basic level) belongs to the sales level of the Sales Opportunity Item; The second level belongs to the sales level of the customer account (Account).

 The third level belongs to the sales level of the Field Salesperson, the fourth level belongs to the sales level of the Sales Territory, and the fifth level belongs to the sales level of the market segment, which is the sales opportunity project of this level. Data, the sixth level belongs to the sales level of the single market, the seventh level belongs to the sales level of the regional market, and the eighth level belongs to the sales forecast level of the global market.

 The information from the third level to the eighth level can be effectively displayed through the high-level sales opportunity project comprehensive analysis chart (Fig. 15) and the high-level sales opportunity project comprehensive analysis chart (Fig. 16).

 In addition, the above invention can be performed using a computer, and the operational steps thereof include:

 Step 01: Select one (or more) customer accounts in the customer database to become the "target forecast account", and select a future time period to become the "sales forecast period".

 Step 02: Read all relevant data of one (or more) "Target Forecast Account" in the sales opportunity project database for successful transactions, unsuccessful transactions and ongoing sales opportunity projects.

 Step 03: The sales opportunity project classification computer program is executed by the central processing unit, and all sales opportunity items are divided into four sales opportunity items.

 Step 04: The customer classification computer program is executed by the central processing unit, and all sales opportunity items are divided into seven customer classification levels.

 Step 05: Perform a comprehensive analysis of the computer program by the central processor to execute the sales opportunity project at the customer account level, and divide all the sales opportunity items into twenty-eight categories. At the same time, through the color display (color printer), all the sales opportunity items are clearly displayed (expressed) at the position and related assets on the "customer account level sales opportunity project comprehensive analysis chart".

Step 06: Perform a sales opportunity project comprehensive analysis computer program through the central processing unit to calculate a plurality of development trends of the target forecasting account, and clearly display all the trend proposals through a color display (color printer) )come out. Then, through the central processor, the external economic environment factors, future industry environmental factors and internal sales strategy analysis computer programs are used to predict the target development trend of the target forecasting account in the future, and through the color display. (Color printer) Clearly display (express) the proposal for this trend.

 Step 07: Perform a analysis of the sales model of the sales opportunity project in the same period of the previous year (or the previous quarter) through the central processing unit, and calculate the future sales opportunity with the predicted account development trend proposal. The number of items, and the clear display (expression) of all trend proposals through a color display (color printer). At the same time, through the central processor to execute the "average sales," and calculation of computer programs for the sales opportunity project, the target turnover of each future sales opportunity project is calculated.

 Step 08: Execute the sales opportunity calculation computer program through the central processing unit to predict the success rate of each future sales opportunity project under different circumstances, and then calculate the target transaction amount of each future sales opportunity project to calculate The total sales of the future (and past) of the "target forecast account". At the same time, through the color display (color printer), all the sales opportunity items are clearly displayed (expressed) at the position and related assets on the "customer account level sales opportunity project comprehensive analysis chart".

 Step 09: Select the next customer account through the central processor to continue all the above procedures, repeat until all the sales customer accounts within the scope of the sales have been completed, and then predict the sales of the project opportunities below the sales area. In addition, it is the total forecasted sales within the specified time period within the jurisdictional sales range.

 Further, the present invention includes a computer system for "sales opportunity" and "hukou potential" prediction: a sales forecasting computer system (Fig. 17), which can be used by different levels of management to predict different levels of jurisdictional sales range. The future sales opportunity project and related assets are characterized by:

 ■ One computer server (Figure 17, object 1)

 骟 A customer database, the stored data includes the customer's basic data (Figure 17, object 3)

■ A sales opportunity project database, the stored data includes data related to the customer's sales opportunity project (Figure 17, object 4)

谰 A central processor that can accept and execute computer programs (Figure 17, object ² )

 ■ A set of input devices (Figure 17, object 5), for example, and a mouse

 骟 A set of output devices (Figure 17, object 6), such as color displays and color printers

Claims

Claim A sales forecasting method for improving sales efficiency, in which a sales team or a different level of management can obtain a more accurate sales forecast, wherein the above method mainly comprises the following steps:  a. Select a customer account as a forecast account and a time period as a sales forecast period;  b. Read the relevant data of all previous sales opportunity items corresponding to the customer account;  c After a defined sales opportunity project classification process, each sales opportunity project uses the customer-related data of the sales opportunity project to calculate a classification level of the corresponding sales opportunity item at that time;  d. At the same time, calculate the corresponding customer classification level at the time according to each sales opportunity project and relevant data of the customer at that time;  e. Analyze the data of each sales opportunity project, including the calculated sales opportunity item classification level and customer classification level, and analyze the results for output display;  f. selecting at least one proposal from a plurality of proposals for analyzing results;  g. Based on the selected proposal, to determine the chance of success of each project opportunity in the previous specified time period and its predicted sales volume in the subsequent period;  h. Add the projected sales for each project opportunity for the specified time period, which is the total forecasted sales for that account for that specified time period.  2. The sales forecasting method according to claim 1, wherein after step h. is completed, repeating step a. selecting a customer account and performing steps b. to h., repeating until a jurisdiction has been established The sales account is completed within the sales account, and then the predicted sales of the project opportunities below the sales area are added together, which is the total forecasted sales within the specified sales period within the jurisdictional sales range.  3. The sales forecasting method according to claim 2, wherein the jurisdictional sales range is a business/salesperson.  The sales prediction method according to claim 2, wherein the jurisdiction sales area is a sales area.  The sales forecasting method according to claim 2, wherein the jurisdiction sales range is a market partition. 6. The sales forecasting method according to claim 2, wherein said jurisdiction sales range It is a single market.  The sales prediction method according to claim 2, wherein the jurisdiction sales range is a regional market.  8. The sales forecasting method according to claim 2, wherein the jurisdictional sales range is a global market.  9. The sales prediction method according to claim 1, wherein after the step h. is completed, the step a. repeats the next customer account and performs the steps b. to h., repeating until the entire company is completed. The sales customer account number is completed, and then the predicted sales of the project opportunities below the sales area are added together, which is the total predicted sales of the company during the specified time period.  10. The sales forecasting method according to claim 1, wherein the factor c. The factors considered in the calculating process include a customer relationship, a salesperson's quota, a usage period, and a differentiation in the sales opportunity item.  11. The sales forecasting method according to claim 10, wherein the step d. the factor considered in the calculating process includes the accumulated related data of the customer before the selling opportunity item.  12. The sales forecasting method according to claim 11, wherein in step e., in the household account strategy analysis, each sales opportunity item is filled in the sales opportunity comprehensive analysis chart according to the priority of the start date.  13. The sales forecasting method according to claim 12, wherein the step £ is based on the sales opportunity comprehensive analysis map when selecting the account strategy, and observing the past direction of the account, and selecting one account future in the map. Direction of development.  14. The sales forecasting method according to claim 13, wherein the step g. selecting the account policy is based on the future development direction of the account selected on the map.  15. A method of implementing a sales forecasting method according to claim 1 using a computer system, wherein a salesperson or a different level of management layer can obtain a more accurate sales forecast by using the method, wherein the method is It mainly includes the following steps:  a. Enter a customer account as a forecast account and a time period as a sales forecast period;  b. Read the relevant data of all previous sales opportunity items corresponding to the customer account;  c After a defined sales opportunity project classification process, each sales opportunity project uses the customer-related data of the sales opportunity project to calculate a corresponding classification level of the corresponding sales opportunity item through the central processor; d. At the same time, according to each sales opportunity project and relevant data of the customer at that time, the central processor is used to calculate a corresponding customer classification level at that time; e. Perform the account strategy analysis on the data of each sales opportunity project, including the calculated sales opportunity item classification level and customer classification level, and analyze the results to display and display;  f. selecting at least one proposal from a plurality of proposals for analyzing results;  g. Based on the selected proposal, to determine the chance of success of each project opportunity in the previous specified time period and its predicted sales volume in the subsequent period;  h. Add the projected sales for each project opportunity for the specified time period, which is the total forecasted sales for that account for that specified time period.  16. The sales forecasting method according to claim 15, wherein, after the step h. is completed, the step a. repeats the step of selecting a customer account and performing steps b. to h., repeating until a jurisdiction has been established. The total sales customer account is completed within the sales scope, and then the predicted sales of the project opportunities below the sales area of 4 bar are added together, which is the total predicted sales within the specified sales period within the jurisdictional sales range.  17. The sales prediction method implemented by using a computer system according to claim 15, wherein: step c. factors considered in the calculation process include customer relationship in the sales opportunity item, vendor volume, usage period, and Differentiation.  18. The sales prediction method implemented using a computer system according to claim 17, wherein the step d. factors considered in the calculation process include accumulated related data of the customer before the sales opportunity item.  The sales forecasting method implemented by using a computer system according to claim 18, wherein, in step e., the account strategy analysis is performed, and each sales opportunity item is filled in the sales opportunity comprehensive analysis according to the priority of the start date. On the map.  20. The sales prediction method implemented by using a computer system according to claim 19, wherein step f., when selecting the account strategy, comprehensively analyzing the map according to the sales opportunity, and observing the trend of the past account direction, on the map Select a future direction for the account.  21. The sales forecasting method implemented by using a computer system according to claim 20, wherein the step g. selecting the account policy is based on the future development direction of the account selected on the map.  22. A sales forecasting computer system implementing the sales forecasting method according to claim 1, wherein a salesperson or a different level of management can use this method to predict each sales item such that each sales team or the entire region The sales opportunity and its turnover are characterized by: a.—a customer database, and the stored data includes basic data of the customer; b. A sales opportunity project database, the stored data includes the number of customer sales opportunity items According to;  c. A central processing unit that can accept programs for the following functions:  i. Enter a customer account as a forecast account and a time period as a sales forecast period from the customer database;  Ii. From the sales opportunity project database, read the relevant data of all previous sales opportunity items corresponding to the customer account;  Iii. After a defined sales opportunity project classification process, each sales opportunity project uses the customer-related data of the sales opportunity project to calculate a corresponding classification level of the corresponding sales opportunity item at that time;  Iv. Calculate a corresponding customer classification level at the time according to each sales opportunity project and relevant data of the customer at that time;  v. The data of each sales opportunity project, including the calculated sales opportunity item classification level and customer classification level, is analyzed by the account strategy, and the analysis result is output and displayed;  Vi. From the proposal of multiple analysis results, at least one account policy is allowed to be input;  Vii. Based on the selected account strategy, the success rate and the predicted sales amount of each project opportunity in the previous specified time period will be determined.  Viii. Adding the projected sales for each project opportunity for a given time period is the total forecasted sales for that account for that specified time period.