[go: up one dir, main page]

WO2004055621A3 - Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading - Google Patents

Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading Download PDF

Info

Publication number
WO2004055621A3
WO2004055621A3 PCT/US2003/037553 US0337553W WO2004055621A3 WO 2004055621 A3 WO2004055621 A3 WO 2004055621A3 US 0337553 W US0337553 W US 0337553W WO 2004055621 A3 WO2004055621 A3 WO 2004055621A3
Authority
WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
risk
sharing
trading
value
variates
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Ceased
Application number
PCT/US2003/037553
Other languages
French (fr)
Other versions
WO2004055621A2 (en
Inventor
Joel Jameson
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
Individual
Original Assignee
Individual
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Priority claimed from US10/696,100 external-priority patent/US20040103013A1/en
Application filed by Individual filed Critical Individual
Priority to EP03789987A priority Critical patent/EP1576514A2/en
Priority to CA002507489A priority patent/CA2507489A1/en
Priority to AU2003294502A priority patent/AU2003294502A1/en
Publication of WO2004055621A2 publication Critical patent/WO2004055621A2/en
Publication of WO2004055621A3 publication Critical patent/WO2004055621A3/en
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical
Ceased legal-status Critical Current

Links

Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/08—Insurance

Landscapes

  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Accounting & Taxation (AREA)
  • Finance (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Technology Law (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
  • Financial Or Insurance-Related Operations Such As Payment And Settlement (AREA)

Abstract

An integrated and unified method of statistical-like analysis, scenario forecasting, risking sharing, and risk trading is presented. Variates explanatory of response variates are identified in terms of the 'value of the knowing.' Such a value can be direct economic value. Probabilistic scenarios are generated by multi-dimensionally weighting a dataset. Weights are specified using Exogenous-Forecasted Distributions (EFDs). Weighting is done by a highly improved Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure (IPFP) that exponentially reduces computer storage and calculations requirements. A probabilistic nearest neighbor procedure is provided to yield fine-grain pinpoint scenarios. A method to evaluate forecasters is presented; this method addresses game-theory issues. All of this leads to the final component: a new method of sharing and trading risk, which both directly integrates with the above and yields contingent risk-contracts that better serve all parties.
PCT/US2003/037553 2002-11-25 2003-11-24 Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading Ceased WO2004055621A2 (en)

Priority Applications (3)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
EP03789987A EP1576514A2 (en) 2002-11-25 2003-11-24 Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading
CA002507489A CA2507489A1 (en) 2002-11-25 2003-11-24 Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading
AU2003294502A AU2003294502A1 (en) 2002-11-25 2003-11-24 Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading

Applications Claiming Priority (6)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
US42917502P 2002-11-25 2002-11-25
US60/429,175 2002-11-25
US51463703P 2003-10-27 2003-10-27
US60/514,637 2003-10-27
US10/696,100 US20040103013A1 (en) 2002-11-25 2003-10-29 Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading
US10/696,100 2003-10-29

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
WO2004055621A2 WO2004055621A2 (en) 2004-07-01
WO2004055621A3 true WO2004055621A3 (en) 2004-12-16

Family

ID=32600906

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
PCT/US2003/037553 Ceased WO2004055621A2 (en) 2002-11-25 2003-11-24 Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading

Country Status (4)

Country Link
EP (1) EP1576514A2 (en)
AU (1) AU2003294502A1 (en)
CA (1) CA2507489A1 (en)
WO (1) WO2004055621A2 (en)

Families Citing this family (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN107437198A (en) 2017-05-26 2017-12-05 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 Determine method, information recommendation method and the device of consumer's risk preference

Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US5148365A (en) * 1989-08-15 1992-09-15 Dembo Ron S Scenario optimization
US20020147670A1 (en) * 1999-07-21 2002-10-10 Jeffrey Lange Digital options having demand-based, adjustable returns, and trading exchange therefor
US6493682B1 (en) * 1998-09-15 2002-12-10 Pendelton Trading Systems, Inc. Optimal order choice: evaluating uncertain discounted trading alternatives

Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US5148365A (en) * 1989-08-15 1992-09-15 Dembo Ron S Scenario optimization
US6493682B1 (en) * 1998-09-15 2002-12-10 Pendelton Trading Systems, Inc. Optimal order choice: evaluating uncertain discounted trading alternatives
US20020147670A1 (en) * 1999-07-21 2002-10-10 Jeffrey Lange Digital options having demand-based, adjustable returns, and trading exchange therefor

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
CA2507489A1 (en) 2004-07-01
EP1576514A2 (en) 2005-09-21
AU2003294502A1 (en) 2004-07-09
WO2004055621A2 (en) 2004-07-01
AU2003294502A8 (en) 2004-07-09

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
Bekaert et al. Emerging markets finance
ATE557354T1 (en) EXPERT DATABASE FORWARD BACKLINK WEIGHTING ASSOCIATION RULES
WO2002073465A3 (en) System and method for maintaining large-grained database concurrency with a log monitor incorporating dynamically redefinable business logic
WO2003069364A3 (en) Presence tracking and name space interconnection techniques
Wang et al. Performance of contemporary surgical risk scores for mitral valve surgery
WO2004055621A3 (en) Optimal scenario forecasting, risk sharing, and risk trading
Bryant et al. Isothermal extrusion
Ku Socio-economic characteristics of the poor and poverty transition in Korea: since the recent economic crisis
Knott The debate about women in the hare krishna movement
Lin Is Taiwan's First Exchange Traded Fund Efficient?
Reich Use of spreadsheets in thermal analysis. Part 2
Hill et al. A simple method for estimating incidence from prevalence
Liao A New Method of Measuring Knowledge Spillover
Lee et al. City Shrinking Simulation followed by a Decrease of Population Trend in Small and Medium-Sized Local Cities
Xie PROSPECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL FINANCING THROUGH GREEN BONDS
CA2415306A1 (en) Accessibility correction factors for electronic models of cytochrome p450 metabolism
Kovacs et al. Mitochondrial proteomic adaptations to daily torpor in the Djungarian hamster (Phodopus sungorus)
Iwamoto-Stohl Cell Fate Decisions in the Early Mammalian Embryo
Dominic EXPERIENCE OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN INDIAN
Yuxin The Sino-US Trade War and Other Necessary Factors Affecting Interest Rate Bonds in 2019 and Investment Suggestions for this Situation
Webbe Fans R us:(Almost) All you ever wanted to know about sport fans and spectators.
葉家瑜 et al. The Optimal Location, Price and Scale Strategies for the Hotel Industry
Choper et al. Report of the Western Center Executive Council
HAN Incompatible or reciprocal
Barrell UK savings and pensions

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
AK Designated states

Kind code of ref document: A2

Designated state(s): AE AG AL AM AT AU AZ BA BB BG BR BY BZ CA CH CN CO CR CU CZ DE DK DM DZ EC EE EG ES FI GB GD GE GH GM HR HU ID IL IN IS JP KE KG KP KR KZ LC LK LR LS LT LU LV MA MD MG MK MN MW MX MZ NI NO NZ OM PG PH PL PT RO RU SC SD SE SG SK SL SY TJ TM TN TR TT TZ UA UG UZ VC VN YU ZA ZM ZW

AL Designated countries for regional patents

Kind code of ref document: A2

Designated state(s): BW GH GM KE LS MW MZ SD SL SZ TZ UG ZM ZW AM AZ BY KG KZ MD RU TJ TM AT BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HU IE IT LU MC NL PT RO SE SI SK TR BF BJ CF CG CI CM GA GN GQ GW ML MR NE SN TD TG

121 Ep: the epo has been informed by wipo that ep was designated in this application
WWE Wipo information: entry into national phase

Ref document number: 2507489

Country of ref document: CA

WWE Wipo information: entry into national phase

Ref document number: 2003789987

Country of ref document: EP

WWP Wipo information: published in national office

Ref document number: 2003789987

Country of ref document: EP

WWW Wipo information: withdrawn in national office

Ref document number: 2003789987

Country of ref document: EP

NENP Non-entry into the national phase

Ref country code: JP

WWW Wipo information: withdrawn in national office

Country of ref document: JP