TW201920988A - Method for generating and displaying a nowcast in selectable time increments - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
所揭示之標的大體上係關於用於產生氣象預報之方法。更具體言之,該標的係關於用於產生氣象預報之軟體應用。The disclosed subject matter is generally related to methods for generating weather forecasts. More specifically, the subject matter relates to software applications for generating weather forecasts.
習知氣象預報系統提供相距當前時間達12小時至幾天的氣象預測。若需要一短期預報或具有一精細時間標度之一預報,則可用的最佳資訊通常係每天按小時進行預報。
習知氣象預報係產生其等之區域之平均預報。因此,對於此區域內之一精確位置的一預報可能不準確,且甚至針對一區域顯示之當前氣象可不同於此區域內之一精確位置之實際氣象。
此外,習知氣象預報係依時間標度顯示,其以太粗略而不容許一使用者知道何時發生一氣象事件之精確位置及時間。甚至對於每小時的習知氣象預報,使用者不可能知道經預報之氣象事件是否持續一小時或一分鐘,且對於後者,使用者不可能知道預報之事件發生於該一小時內的確切時間。
市場上需要以不同時間標度產生並顯示短期氣象預報。The conventional weather forecasting system provides weather forecasts from the current time of 12 hours to several days. If a short-term forecast or a forecast with a fine time scale is required, the best information available is usually forecasted on an hourly basis.
The conventional weather forecasting system produces an average forecast of the areas in which it is equal. Therefore, a forecast for a precise location within this region may be inaccurate, and even the current weather displayed for a region may differ from the actual weather at one of the precise locations within the region.
In addition, conventional weather forecasts are shown on a time scale that is too coarse to allow a user to know when the exact location and time of a weather event occurred. Even for hourly weather forecasting, it is not possible for the user to know whether the predicted meteorological event lasts for one hour or one minute, and for the latter, it is impossible for the user to know the exact time at which the predicted event occurred within that one hour.
The market needs to generate and display short-term weather forecasts on different time scales.
本實施例描述此一方法。
根據一實施例,提供一種用於輸出一給定週期內及一給定地帶之開始於一給定時間之按時間排列的一系列氣象預報之電腦實施方法,該方法包括:接收由一氣象值預報器備製之預報氣象值,該等預報氣象值開始於該給定時間且持續由一預設時間增量分離之後續時間;自一使用者接收一時間增量之一選擇,該選擇時間增量定義開始於該給定時間且持續由該選擇時間增量分離之後續時間之一系列特定時間,該選擇時間增量小於1小時;對於一時間增量之各選擇,按該預設時間增量使用該等預報氣象值以產生在介於該等特定時間之間之時間間隔內的一系列新氣象預報;及輸出介於該等特定時間之間之該等時間間隔內之該系列氣象預報。
根據一實施例,接收該等預報氣象值包括接收包括以下至少一者之預報氣象值:一降雨速率、一降雨類型、一降雨機率、一溫度、一壓力、一相對濕度、一風速、一風向、相對於閃電之一值、相對於冰雹之一值及相對於一微暴流之一值。
根據一實施例,產生該系列氣象預報包括除了使用該等預報氣象值以外亦使用以下至少一者:一降雨速率、一降雨類型、一降雨機率、一溫度、一壓力、一相對濕度、一風速、一風向、相對於閃電之一值、相對於冰雹之一值及相對於一微暴流之一值。
根據一實施例,產生在該等特定時間之間之該等時間間隔內的該系列氣象預報包括:在按該預設時間增量備製之該等預報氣象值之間選擇針對各特定時間備製之該等預報氣象值之至少一者。
根據另一實施例,產生在該等特定時間之間之該等時間間隔內的該系列氣象預報包括:平均化在包含各特定時間之一時間範圍內之時間內備製且在按該預設時間增量備製之該等預報氣象值之間選擇之氣象值。
根據一實施例,輸出該系列氣象預報包括:向該使用者呈現該系列氣象預報。
根據一實施例,輸出該系列氣象預報包括:輸出小於6小時之一給定週期內之該系列氣象預報。
根據一實施例,接收一時間增量之一選擇包括:接收自一先前使用保存之一時間增量。
根據一實施例,按該選擇時間增量產生該系列氣象預報包括:按1分鐘、5分鐘、15分鐘或30分鐘之一選擇時間增量產生該系列氣象預報。
根據一實施例,接收一時間增量之一選擇包括:接收在該給定週期內可變之一時間增量之一選擇。
根據一實施例,產生開始於該給定時間之該系列氣象預報包括:產生開始於一當前時間之該系列氣象預報。
根據一實施例,輸出一給定地帶之一系列氣象預報包括:輸出被定義為具有範圍介於5米與1,000米之間之一解析度之一極小區域之一系列氣象預報。
根據一實施例,輸出一極小區域之一系列氣象預報包括:輸出該使用者之一當前位置之一系列氣象預報。
根據一實施例,輸出該使用者之一當前位置之一系列氣象預報包括:輸出透過經啟用以由一通信網路定位之一運算裝置或透過一GPS導航裝置判定之一當前位置之一系列氣象預報。
根據一實施例,自一使用者接收一時間增量之一選擇包括:接收由該使用者指定之任何實數。
根據一實施例,自一使用者接收一時間增量之一選擇包括:接收大於或等於該預設時間增量之該選擇時間增量。
在另一態樣中,提供一種用於輸出一給定週期內及一給定地帶之開始於一給定時間之按時間排列的一系列氣象預報之系統,該系統包括:用於接收由一氣象值預報器備製之預報氣象值之一輸入,該等預報氣象值開始於該給定時間且持續由一預設時間增量分離之後續時間;用於自一使用者接收一時間增量之一選擇之一輸入,該選擇時間增量定義開始於該給定時間且持續由該選擇時間增量分離之後續時間之一系列特定時間,該選擇時間增量小於1小時;一氣象預報產生器,其用於對於一時間增量之各選擇,使用該等預報氣象值產生在介於該等特定時間之間之時間間隔內的一系列新氣象預報;及一輸出,其用於輸出在介於該等特定時間之間之該等時間間隔內之該系列氣象預報。
定義
在本說明書中,以下術語意謂如下文指示定義:
臨近預報:術語臨近預報係「現在」及「預報」之一縮寫;其係指經設想以作短期預報(通常在0至12小時範圍中)之技術集合。
用於備製臨近預報之一臨近預報器或系統係備製地球上之一極小區域(5米、10米、50米、100米、500米、1,000米等等之解析度)之極短期(例如,1分鐘、5分鐘、15分鐘、30分鐘等等)預報之一氣象預報裝置。臨近預報器包括用於備製預報氣象值之一氣象值預報器及用於藉由在已備製之預報氣象值之間選擇預報氣象值產生氣象預報之一氣象預報產生器。
一氣象值係任何類別之一氣象相關數量或屬性,諸如一降雨速率、一降雨類型、一降雨機率、一溫度、一壓力、一相對濕度、一風速、一風向、相對於閃電之一值、相對於冰雹之一值、相對於一微暴流之一值、一積冰量、一雲量等等。
一預報氣象值係由臨近預報器預測之一氣象值。預報氣象值係關於一時間或一時間間隔。
一氣象預報係可向使用者顯示之一或多個預報氣象值之一集合。氣象預報係關於一時間或一時間間隔。
一使用者係轉發一氣象預報之一人或一機器。
一氣象相關事件係(例如)冰雹、一陣風、閃電、一溫度變化等等之至少一者。
降雨類型(PType):指示降雨類型。降雨類型之實例包含(但不限於)雨、雪、冰雹、凍雨、冰珠、冰晶。
降雨速率(PRate):指示降雨強度。降雨速率之實例包含(但不限於)無(即,沒有)、小、中、大、極大。在一實施例中,降雨速率亦可被表達為諸如以下值之一範圍:無至小、小至中、中至大或上述之任何組合。
降雨機率:指示可能發生降雨之機率。降雨機率之實例包含(但不限於)無、不太可能、可能性小、有可能、可能、極有可能、一定。
在一實施例中,降雨機率亦可被表達為諸如以下值之一範圍:無至小、小至中、中至大。亦可根據百分比表達降雨機率:例如0%、25%、50%、75%、100%;或百分比範圍:例如0%至25%、25%至50%、50%至75%、75%至100%。在一實施例中,降雨機率可取自一機率分佈。
降雨類型及降雨速率類別(PTypeRate):一PTypeRate類別係與一給定週期之一發生機率相關聯以指示接收在某一速率下之某一類型的降雨之可能性之降雨類型及降雨速率之組合。
遍及說明書及申請專利範圍,除非上下文另有明確指示,否則以下術語採用本文明確相關聯之意義。如本文使用之措詞「在一實施例中」不一定係指相同實施例,但是其可為相同實施例。此外,如本文使用之措詞「在另一實施例中」不一定係指一不同實施例,但是其可為一不同實施例。因此,如下文描述,在不脫離本發明之範疇或精神之情況下,可容易組合本發明之各項實施例。術語「包括」及「包含」應被解譯為意謂:包含但不限於。
此外,如本文使用,除非上下文另有明確指示,否則術語「或」係一包含「或」運算符,且等效於術語「及/或」。除非上下文另有明確指示,否則術語「基於」並非排斥且容許基於未描述之額外因數。
根據如隨附圖式中繪示之選定實施例之以下詳細描述將明白此處標的之特徵及優點。如將認識到,所揭示且主張之標的能夠修改各個態樣,各個態樣全部皆未脫離申請專利範圍之範疇。因此,圖式及描述被視為本質上繪示性,且並無限制且標的之全範疇在申請專利範圍中加以陳述。This embodiment describes this method.
According to an embodiment, a computer implemented method for outputting a series of weather forecasts for a given period of time and for a given time starting at a given time is provided, the method comprising: receiving a weather value a predicted weather value for the forecaster, the forecast weather value starting at the given time and continuing for a subsequent time separated by a predetermined time increment; receiving a time increment from a user, the selection time The incremental definition begins at the given time and continues for a series of specific times of the subsequent time separated by the selected time increment, the selected time increment being less than 1 hour; for each selection of a time increment, pressing the preset time Incrementally using the forecasted meteorological values to generate a series of new weather forecasts within a time interval between the particular times; and outputting the series of meteorology within the time intervals between the specific times forecast.
According to an embodiment, receiving the predicted weather values comprises receiving a predicted weather value comprising at least one of: a rainfall rate, a rainfall type, a rainfall probability, a temperature, a pressure, a relative humidity, a wind speed, a wind direction One value relative to lightning, one value relative to hail, and one value relative to a micro storm.
According to an embodiment, generating the series of weather forecasts includes using at least one of: in addition to using the predicted weather values: a rainfall rate, a rainfall type, a rainfall probability, a temperature, a pressure, a relative humidity, a wind speed , a wind direction, a value relative to lightning, a value relative to the hail and a value relative to a micro storm.
According to an embodiment, generating the series of weather forecasts within the time intervals between the specific times comprises: selecting between the predicted weather values prepared in the preset time increments for each specific time At least one of the forecasted meteorological values.
According to another embodiment, generating the series of weather forecasts within the time intervals between the specific times comprises: averaging preparing for a time within a time range of one of the specific times and pressing the preset The meteorological value selected between the forecasted meteorological values prepared by the time increment.
According to an embodiment, outputting the series of weather forecasts includes presenting the series of weather forecasts to the user.
According to an embodiment, outputting the series of weather forecasts includes outputting the series of weather forecasts within a given period of less than 6 hours.
According to an embodiment, receiving one of the time increments comprises selecting to receive one of the time increments from a previous usage save.
According to an embodiment, generating the series of weather forecasts in the selected time increment comprises generating the series of weather forecasts by one of a time increment of one minute, five minutes, fifteen minutes, or thirty minutes.
According to an embodiment, receiving one of the time increments comprises selecting to select one of the variable ones of the time increments within the given period.
According to an embodiment, generating the series of weather forecasts beginning at the given time comprises generating the series of weather forecasts beginning at a current time.
According to an embodiment, outputting a series of weather forecasts for a given zone includes: outputting a series of weather forecasts defined as one of a minimum range of resolutions between 5 meters and 1,000 meters.
According to an embodiment, outputting a series of weather forecasts for a very small area comprises: outputting a series of weather forecasts for one of the current positions of the user.
According to an embodiment, outputting a series of weather forecasts of one of the current positions of the user comprises: outputting a series of meteorological conditions through one of the current positions enabled by a communication network or by a GPS navigation device forecast.
According to an embodiment, receiving one of the time increments from a user comprises receiving any real number specified by the user.
According to an embodiment, receiving one of the time increments from a user comprises receiving the selected time increment greater than or equal to the preset time increment.
In another aspect, a system for outputting a series of weather forecasts for a given period of time and for a given time beginning at a given time is provided, the system comprising: for receiving by a Entering one of the forecast meteorological values prepared by the meteorological value predictor, the predicted weather value starting at the given time and continuing for a subsequent time separated by a predetermined time increment; for receiving a time increment from a user One of the selections is input, the selection time increment defines a series of specific times starting at the given time and continuing for the subsequent time separated by the selection time increment, the selection time increment being less than 1 hour; a weather forecast generation Means for generating, for each selection of a time increment, a series of new weather forecasts within a time interval between the specific times using the predicted weather values; and an output for outputting The series of weather forecasts within such time intervals between the specific times.
Definitions In this specification, the following terms mean the following definitions:
Nowcast: The term nowcast is an abbreviation of “now” and “forecast”; it refers to a collection of technologies envisioned for short-term forecasting (usually in the range of 0 to 12 hours).
One of the short-term areas (5, 10, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, etc.) of the Earth's very small area (the resolution of 5 meters, 10 meters, 50 meters, 100 meters, 500 meters, 1,000 meters, etc.) For example, 1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, etc.) one of the weather forecasting devices. The proximity predictor includes a weather value predictor for preparing a forecast meteorological value and a weather forecast generator for generating a weather forecast by selecting a forecast meteorological value between the prepared forecast meteorological values.
A meteorological value is a meteorologically relevant quantity or attribute of any class, such as a rainfall rate, a rainfall type, a rainfall probability, a temperature, a pressure, a relative humidity, a wind speed, a wind direction, a value relative to lightning, Relative to the value of hail, relative to a value of a micro-storm, an amount of ice, a cloud, and so on.
A forecast meteorological value is predicted by the proximity forecaster. The forecast meteorological value is for a time or an interval.
A weather forecast system may display to the user a set of one or more forecast weather values. The weather forecast is about a time or an interval.
A user forwards a weather forecast to a person or a machine.
A weather related event is, for example, at least one of hail, a gust of wind, lightning, a temperature change, and the like.
Rain Type (PType): Indicates the type of rainfall. Examples of rainfall types include, but are not limited to, rain, snow, hail, freezing rain, ice beads, ice crystals.
Rain rate (PRate): Indicates the intensity of the rain. Examples of rainfall rates include, but are not limited to, none (ie, no), small, medium, large, and very large. In an embodiment, the rain rate may also be expressed as a range such as one of: no to small, small to medium, medium to large, or any combination of the above.
Rainfall probability: Indicates the probability of rain. Examples of rainfall chances include, but are not limited to, none, unlikely, unlikely, possible, possible, highly probable, and certain.
In an embodiment, the rainfall probability may also be expressed as a range such as one of: no to small, small to medium, medium to large. The probability of rain can also be expressed as a percentage: for example 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%; or a percentage range: for example 0% to 25%, 25% to 50%, 50% to 75%, 75% to 100%. In an embodiment, the rainfall probability may be taken from a probability distribution.
Rainfall Type and Rain Rate Category (PTypeRate): A PTypeRate category is a combination of rainfall type and rainfall rate associated with the probability of occurrence of one of a given period to indicate the likelihood of receiving a certain type of rainfall at a certain rate. .
Throughout the specification and claims, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the following terms are used in the meaning of the context. The phrase "in one embodiment" as used herein does not necessarily mean the same embodiment, but may be the same embodiment. In addition, the phrase "in another embodiment" as used herein does not necessarily mean a different embodiment, but it can be a different embodiment. Therefore, the embodiments of the present invention can be easily combined without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention. The terms "including" and "comprising" shall be interpreted to mean: include but not limited to.
Further, as used herein, the <RTI ID=0.0>"or"</RTI> includes an "or" operator and is equivalent to the term "and/or" unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. The term "based on" is not exclusive and is admitted to be based on additional factors not described, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
The features and advantages of the subject matter will be apparent from the following detailed description of the embodiments. As will be realized, the subject matter disclosed and claimed can be modified in various aspects, all of which are not in the scope of the claims. Accordingly, the drawings and description are to be regarded as illustrative in nature
相關申請案交叉參考
本申請案主張以下共同擁有且共同發明之專利申請案之優先權:2013年4月4日申請之美國專利申請案第13/856,923號;2013年6月20日申請之美國專利申請案第13/922,800號;2013年7月22日申請之美國專利申請案第13/947,331號;2013年6月16日申請之美國臨時申請案第61/839,675號、美國臨時專利申請案第61/835,626號;及2013年6月19日申請、2013年6月26日申請之美國臨時申請案第61/836,713號,該等案之全部內容係以引用之方式併入。
現在下文參考隨附圖式將更完整地描述實施例,該等隨附圖式形成該等實施例之一部分且藉由繪示方式展示可實踐該等實施例之特定實施例。亦描述該等實施例使得揭示內容向熟習此項技術者傳達本發明之範疇。然而,該等實施例可以許多不同形式具體實施且不應被解釋為限於本文陳述之實施例。
除了其他事物以外,本實施例可具體實施為方法或裝置。因此,實施例可採用一全硬體實施例、一全軟體實施例、組合軟體及硬體態樣之一實施例(等等)之形式。此外,雖然實施例已參考一攜帶型或手持式裝置加以描述,但是其等亦可實施於桌上型電腦、膝上型電腦、平板裝置或具有實施實施例之足夠多的運算資源之任何運算裝置上。
簡單地說,本實施例描述一種用於按可選擇時間增量產生並顯示一臨近預報之電腦實施方法。該方法之使用者選擇一時間增量且輸出遵循選定時間增量之氣象預報。由稱為用於備製臨近預報之系統一短期氣象預報器或下文更徹底描述之臨近預報器產生氣象預報。
圖1A係根據一實施例之用於按可選擇時間增量產生並顯示一臨近預報之一方法之一方塊圖。於臨近預報器200內實施圖1中所示之方法。在臨近預報器200內備製預報氣象值120。針對給定地帶於一給定時間開始備製在一給定週期內按預設時間增量之預報氣象值120。在一實施例中,給定時間係一當前時間。在一實施例中,預設時間增量係最精細時間增量,例如一分鐘。在另一實施例中,可具有一所選擇時間增量100,其小於預設時間增量,在此情況下需要一內插。
根據實施例,可在該方法內備製預報氣象值,但是亦可由並非該方法之一部分之一氣象值預報器備製預報氣象值,在此情況下,本文描述之方法包括接收預報氣象值。
圖1A進一步繪示使用者選擇一時間增量100。該選擇係透過一使用者介面而進行。所選擇時間增量100通常而言(但不一定)等於或大於特徵化預報氣象值120之預設。
根據一實施例,可記憶化時間增量以隨後擷取記憶化時間增量,而非提示使用者進行選擇,因此容許使用自該方法之一先前使用保存之一時間增量。
根據一實施例,該所選擇時間增量100可包含複數個選擇時間增量,從而容許按跨產生氣象預報之給定週期期間可變之一時間增量產生110氣象預報。例如,在前面的5分鐘內可按1分鐘之一時間增量、接著在前面的一個小時期間變為5分鐘之一時間增量、接著在接下來的幾個小時內變為30分鐘之一時間增量產生並輸出氣象預報。
一旦預報氣象值120及所選擇時間增量100皆已知,該方法準備好按選擇時間增量產生110氣象預報。根據一實施例,產生110氣象預報可包括如由圖1A繪示之兩個步驟。因為對於一使用者而言預報氣象值並非全部相關,所以執行氣象值之一選擇125以僅保留最終由該方法輸出之氣象預報的相關值。接著可發生彙總130。
彙總130係該方法之部分,其將得自於選擇125而針對預設時間增量產生之相關預報氣象值清單變換為按所選擇時間增量100之一預報氣象值120之清單,該所選擇時間增量100比預設時間增量更粗略;即,該所選擇時間增量100大於或等於預設時間增量。
根據一實施例,彙總130為降雨導向,意謂當發生彙總130時,驗證在所選擇時間增量100內是否有可能發生一降雨,且若答案為肯定,則將輸出所選擇時間增量100期間可能發生的降雨類型及速率。例如,在此實施例中,若預報氣象值120之預設時間增量係一分鐘且若使用者選擇五分鐘時間增量100,則彙總130將核對已產生於該時段內之五個預報氣象值120且核對一預報降雨。若四個預報氣象值120係(例如)「不降雨」且一個係「有可能小雨」,則彙總130將容許輸出140小雨之一可能性。
換言之,所選擇時間增量定義稱為特定時間之一系列時間,其等開始於給定時間(可為或並非當前時間)且持續由所選擇時間增量100分離之後續時間。該系列特定時間可用以分離期間產生該系列氣象預報之時間間隔。該方法包括在按預設時間增量備製之預報氣象值之間選擇針對各特定時間備製之預報氣象值之至少一者。
根據另一實施例,彙總130可包括平均化所選擇時間增量100內之預報氣象值120。例如,在此實施例中,若預報氣象值120之預設時間增量係一分鐘,且若使用者選擇五分鐘時間增量100,則彙總130將包括平均化產生於該時段內之相同類型之五個預報氣象值120 (例如,五個溫度值或五個壓力值或五個PTypeRate值等等),且該平均值將用來顯示按時間排列的該系列氣象預報。平均化氣象值可包括輸出一算數平均值或一幾何平均值。將可避免使用所有氣象值來進行平均化。
換言之,此實施例仍可使用特定時間及由特定時間分離且如上文描述之先前實施例定義之時間間隔。針對介於此等特定時間之間之時間間隔產生該系列氣象預報。在此實施例中,對於各特定時間,該方法包括按預設時間增量且在包含各特定時間之一時間範圍內之時間備製之預報氣象值之間進行選擇,且接著平均化此等氣象值以產生在此時間間隔內的一氣象預報。在顯示期間,為方便使用者,此氣象預報可與最接近的特定時間相關聯,而非與該時間間隔相關聯。
在其他實施例中,彙總130可包括其他演算法或選擇規則以判定如何將針對精細預設時間增量產生之預報氣象值120彙總為更粗略所選擇時間增量100。
輸出140可包括顯示相對於一給定週期之該系列氣象預報。根據一實施例,此給定週期可根據所選擇時間增量100而變化。
可按一給定頻率更新輸出140以容許使用者獲知最近的系列氣象預報。
根據其他實施例,輸出140可包括保存該系列氣象預報或將該系列氣象預報發送至另一電腦。
根據一實施例,所選擇時間增量100可跨期間輸出該系列氣象預報之給定週期而改變。
圖1B繪示上面嵌入該方法之一不同實施例。與圖1A中呈現之實施例的不同之處在於以下事實:一時間增量100之選擇並非在該方法開始時進行。在本實施例中,一旦已知預報氣象值120,考慮氣象值之預設時間增量以用於按預設時間增量產生110氣象預報。發生該系列氣象預報之輸出140以向使用者呈現150。接著使用者可選擇時間增量100。此選擇使該方法返回至按實際時間增量產生110氣象預報,後續接著按實際時間增量輸出140並呈現150該系列氣象預報,直至使用者選擇一新的時間增量100。
臨近預報器
圖2A及圖2B係諸如2013年4月4日申請之共同擁有且共同發明之美國專利申請案第13/856923號中描述之一合適的臨近預報器200之方塊圖。
如圖2A及圖2B中所示,臨近預報器200自不同源201 (諸如氣象觀測源)接收氣象觀測,氣象觀測源包含(但不限於):點觀測201-2 (例如,由使用者及自動站提供之回饋)、氣象雷達201-3、衛星201-4及其他類型的氣象觀測201-1以及氣象預報源,諸如數值氣象預測(NWP)模型輸出201-5及氣象預報與諮詢201-6。
臨近預報器200包括一記憶體220及一處理器210。記憶體220包括用於該方法之指令且亦儲存來自氣象源201之資料、中間結果及氣象預報。處理器210容許臨近預報器200執行計算。
臨近預報器200可透過一通信網路254自一使用者接收資訊230。根據一實施例,此資訊230可為所選擇時間增量100。
臨近預報器200輸出一氣象預報或一系列氣象預報。
在一實施例中,臨近預報器200包括一PType分佈預報器202及一PRate分佈預報器204。PType預報器202自不同源201接收氣象觀測並輸出一給定緯度及經度(及/或位置)在一時間間隔內之降雨類型之一機率分佈。例如:
a.雪:10%
b.雨:30%
c.凍雨:60%
d.冰雹:0%
e.冰珠:0%
類似地,PRate預報器204自不同源201接收一給定緯度及經度之氣象觀測,並以表達不確定性之一表示輸出一降雨速率(PRate)之一機率分佈預報。例如,PRate可在輸出為一給定緯度及經度在一時間間隔內之降雨速率或一速率範圍之一機率分佈。例如:
f.不降雨:30%
g.小雨:40%
h.中雨:20%
i.大雨:10%
由PRate預報器204及PType預報器202輸出之PRate值及PType值被發送至一預報組合器206,以將此等值組合為表示降雨結果之一單一值PTypeRate。例如,若PType之值係「雪」且PRate之值為大,則PTypeRate之組合值可為「大雪」。
對於一給定緯度及經度,系統輸出預定義時間間隔(固定(例如:1分鐘)或可變(例如:1分鐘,接著5分鐘,接著10分鐘等等))之經預報之PTypeRate分佈。系統可在一序列時間間隔中預計算並儲存經預報之PTypeRate分佈或即時計算PTypeRate分佈。對於各時間間隔,一PTypeRate分佈表示將會發生一PTypeRate之確定性或不確定性。
參考圖2B,預報組合器206自PType預報器202接收最終PRate分佈且自PRate預報器204接收最終PRate分佈,以將其等組合為PTypeRate分佈值之一群組,各PTypeRate分佈值表示接收某一速率下之某一類型的降雨之機率。下文提供一實例。
假定PType分佈如下:雪50%,雨0%,凍雨30%,冰雹0%,冰珠20%,且PRate分佈如下:無0%,小10%,中20%,大30%,極大40%,PTypeRate分佈可如下:
因此,預報組合器206使各類型的降雨之機率乘以各速率的降雨之機率,以獲得接收某一速率下之某一類型的降雨之一機率(例如,20%的可能性係大雪,或12%的可能性係極大凍雨)。在一實施例中,可使機率範圍與文字資訊相關聯以向使用者顯示文字資訊而非以數字顯示機率。例如,介於5%與15%之間之機率可與文字「可能性小」相關聯,而介於40%與70%之間之機率可與文字「可能性大」或「極可能」相關聯等等,藉此可顯示「很大可能性係大雪」而非顯示:60%可能性係大雪。
在另一實施例中,可沿一或多個維度組合兩個或多個不同PTypeRate (該等維度包含:速率、類型或機率)。例如,此組合之結果可包含:有可能小到中雨,有可能小到中雨或大雪;有可能中雨或中雪;有可能下雨或下雪;可能小到中雨或大雪或小冰雹;可能中雨、下雪或冰雹;可能下雨、下雪或冰雹等等。
因此,臨近預報器200接收需要臨近預報之位置及需要臨近預報之時間及/或時間間隔,並輸出給定位置及特定時間之PTypeRate分佈。
可存在臨近預報器200之另一實施例。在此實施例中,臨近預報器包括一PType選擇器/接收器及一PRate分佈預報器。類似於圖2B中所示之實施例,PRate分佈預報器自不同源接收一給定緯度及經度之氣象觀測,並以表達不確定性之一表示輸出一降雨速率(PRate)之一機率分佈預報。例如,PRate可輸出為一給定緯度及經度在一時間間隔內之降雨速率或一速率範圍之一機率分佈。在一非限制實例中,降雨速率之機率分佈可為:
1)不降雨:30%
2)小雨:40%
3)中雨:20%
4)大雨:10%
一般技術者應明白,除上文提供之實例以外可存在各種其他類型及數目的類別。
然而,PType選擇器/接收器並未輸出與不同類型的降雨相關聯之一機率分佈。而是,PType選擇器/接收器自不同源接收一給定緯度及經度之氣象觀測,以自一不同降雨類型清單選擇一降雨類型。例如,基於接收自該等源之輸入,PType選擇器/接收器自以下降雨類型清單選擇給定緯度及經度(及/或位置)中最可能發生之一單一降雨類型:
1)雪
2)雨
3)凍雨
4)冰雹
5)冰珠
6)混合(例如a+c、a+d、b+c、a+e、c+e、d+e等等)
自該降雨類型清單(諸如上文之一者),針對一給定位置僅選擇一降雨類型。例如,可選擇雪與凍雨之一混合作為一給定位置在一給定時間最可能的降雨類型。降雨類型並未與一機率值相關聯。事實上,因為針對任何給定位置及對應於該位置之時間僅選擇一降雨類型,所以選定降雨類型將具有100%之有效機率值。
可用於選擇一類型之該降雨類型清單可包含表示兩種不同降雨類型之一混合之一混合類型(例如,雪及凍雨、冰雹及冰珠等等)。一混合類型被視為可用於選擇之一相異降雨類型,且如上文該清單之類型(6)中所示,可存在表示不同對各種降雨類型之混合之許多不同混合類型。
在另一實施例中,並非由PType選擇器/接收器選擇降雨類型,反而係自臨近預報器外部之一源接收降雨類型。換言之,臨近預報器200可向一遠端源(例如,一第三方氣象服務)請求識別一給定位置在一給定時間最可能發生之降雨類型並自該源接收識別最可能降雨類型之一回應。在此情況下,並非由臨近預報器執行降雨類型之選擇。臨近預報器僅僅被輸入已選定的降雨類型且藉此可節省執行選擇需要的臨近預報器之運算能力。
組合分別由PType選擇器/接收器及PRate分佈預報器輸出之選定降雨類型及PRate值。例如,若選定降雨類型係雪且PRate值如上文所述,則組合資訊將指示:
1)不下雪:30%
2)小雪:40%
3)中雪:20%
4)大雪:10%。
由於僅關注一種降雨類型,執行組合以輸出最終氣象預報資料僅需要最少量的運算能力。因為PType選擇器/接收器將輸出一給定位置及時間之一種(1)降雨類型,所以若PRate分佈預報器輸出m個機率分佈,則最終氣象預報資料將僅包括m (m*1)個氣象預報分佈。
類似於圖2中所示之實施例,在輸出最終氣象預報資料時,可使機率範圍與文字資訊相關聯以向使用者顯示文字資訊而非以數字顯示機率。例如,介於5%與15%之間之機率可與文字「可能性小」相關聯,而介於40%與70%之間之機率可與文字「可能性大」或「極可能」相關聯等等,藉此可顯示「極大可能性係大雪」而非顯示:60%的可能性係大雪。一般技術者應明白,除上文提供之實例以外可存在許多其他變動。
因此,臨近預報器接收需要臨近預報之位置及需要臨近預報之時間及/或時間間隔,並輸出給定位置及特定時間之選定PType及PRate分佈。
在其中希望有效率之某些境況下,根據臨近預報器之此另一實施例之臨近預報器可優於圖2B中所示之實施例。可使用遠小於圖2B之實施例之處理能力實施此另一實施例。然而,在提供任何給定位置及時間之氣象預報資料之更詳細且準確快照方面,圖2B之實施例可能比上文描述之此另一實施例更穩定。
圖3係其中可實踐實施例之一網路環境之一實例。臨近預報器200可實施於可由複數個用戶端電腦252經由一通信網路254存取之一伺服器250上。用戶端電腦252可包含(但不限於):膝上型電腦、桌上型電腦、攜帶型運算裝置、平板電腦等等。使用一用戶端電腦252,各使用者可選擇該所選擇時間增量100並檢視所顯示的預報氣象值。如結合圖2B論述,伺服器經由一電信網路存取氣象源201。伺服器250可在上面儲存地圖資料。
根據一實施例,用戶端電腦252可用於定位以提供一適當給定地帶之氣象預報,該地帶可為使用者之當前位置。此定位可透過經啟用用於定位之一運算裝置或透過一GPS導航裝置而發生。
用戶端電腦252應包括一使用者介面,諸如一螢幕,以容許輸出140氣象預報。在使用者介面上,使用者能夠選擇一時間增量100。
圖5係繪示根據一實施例之呈現150按一預設一分鐘時間增量顯示之一系列氣象預報之一使用者介面之螢幕擷取畫面。反白顯示數字繪示已由使用者選擇之時間增量100。因為數字1反白顯示,所以圖5中顯示之氣象預報(在此實例中「不下雨」)係按一分鐘時間增量顯示。該系列氣象預報與位置500及時間550有關。
圖6係繪示根據一實施例之輸出140按一預設五分鐘時間增量顯示之一系列氣象預報之一使用者介面之螢幕擷取畫面。如圖5中,反白顯示數字繪示已由使用者選擇之時間增量100。因為數字5反白顯示,所以圖6中顯示之氣象預報(在此實例中「不下雨」)係按五分鐘時間增量顯示。該系列氣象預報與位置500及時間550有關。
硬體及操作環境
圖4繪示其中可實踐本發明之實施例之一合適的運算操作環境之一例示性圖。以下描述與圖4相關聯且旨在提供可結合來實施該等實施例之合適電腦硬體及一合適運算環境之一簡短一般描述。實踐該等實施例並非需要所有組件,且在不脫離該等實施例之精神或範疇之情況下可對組件之配置及類型作出變動。
雖然並非必需,但是該等實施例係在電腦可執行指令之一般背景下加以描述,電腦可執行指令(諸如程式模組)係由一電腦(諸如一個人電腦、一手持式或掌上電腦、智慧型電話)或一嵌入式系統(諸如一消費者裝置或專用工業控制器中之一電腦)來執行。一般而言,程式模組包含執行特定任務或實施特定抽象資料類型之常式、程式、物件、組件、資料結構等等。
此外,熟習此項技術者應明白,可使用其他電腦系統組態實踐該等實施例,電腦系統組態包含手持式裝置、微處理器系統、基於微處理器或可程式化消費者電子器件、網路PCS、小型電腦、大型電腦、蜂巢式電話、智慧型電話、顯示傳呼機、射頻(RF)裝置、紅外線(IR)裝置、個人數位助理(PDA)、膝上型電腦、穿戴式電腦、平板電腦、由蘋果電腦(Apple Computer)製造之一IPOD裝置或IPAD裝置族、組合前述裝置之一或多者之積體裝置或能夠執行本文描述之方法及系統之任何其他運算裝置。亦可在其中由透過一通信網路連結之遠端處理裝置執行任務之分散式運算環境中實踐該等實施例。在一分散式運算環境中,程式模組可位於本端及遠端記憶體儲存裝置中。
圖4之例示性硬體及操作環境包含呈一電腦720之形式之一通用運算裝置,電腦720包含一處理器單元721、一系統記憶體722及一系統匯流排723,系統匯流排723將包含系統記憶體之各個系統組件操作地耦合至處理單元721。可存在僅一處理單元721或可存在一個以上處理單元721,使得電腦720之處理器包括一單一中央處理單元(CPU)或統稱為一平行處理環境之複數個處理單元。電腦720可為一習知電腦、一分散式電腦或任何其他類型的電腦;該等實施例並無此限制。
系統匯流排723可為若干類型的匯流排結構之任一者,包含一記憶體匯流排或記憶體控制器、一周邊匯流排及使用多種匯流排架構之任一者之一本端匯流排。系統記憶體亦可簡稱為記憶體,且包含唯讀記憶體(ROM) 724及隨機存取記憶體(RAM) 725。含有諸如在啟動期間有助於傳送電腦720內之元件之間的資訊之基本常式之一基本輸入/輸出系統(BIOS) 726儲存在ROM 724中。在本發明之一實施例中,電腦720進一步包含用於自一硬碟(未展示)讀取或寫入至硬碟之一硬碟機727、用於自一可抽換式磁碟729讀取或寫入至可抽換式磁碟729之一磁碟機728及用於自一可抽換式光碟731 (諸如一CD ROM或其他光學媒體)讀取或寫入至可抽換式光碟731之一光碟機730。在本發明之替代性實施例中,使用揮發性或非揮發性RAM模擬由硬碟機727、磁碟729及光碟機730提供之功能以省電並減小系統之大小。在此等替代性實施例中,RAM可固定在電腦系統中,或其可為一可抽換式RAM裝置,諸如一精巧快閃記憶體卡。
在本發明之一實施例中,硬碟機727、磁碟機728及光碟機730分別由一硬碟機介面732、一磁碟機介面733及一光碟機介面734連接至系統匯流排723。該等碟機及其等相關聯之電腦可讀媒體提供電腦可讀指令、資料結構、程式模組及電腦720之其他資料之非揮發性儲存。熟習此項技術者應明白,可儲存可由一電腦存取之資料之任何類型的電腦可讀媒體(諸如磁匣、快閃記憶體卡、數位視訊光碟、伯努利卡式盒、隨機存取記憶體(RAM)、唯讀記憶體(ROM)等等)可用於例示性操作環境。
可在硬碟、磁碟729、光碟731、ROM 724或RAM 725上儲存多個程式模組,程式模組包含作業系統735、一或多個應用程式736、其他程式模組737及程式資料738。一使用者可透過諸如一鍵盤740及指標裝置742將命令及資訊輸入至個人電腦720中。其他輸入裝置(未展示)可包含一麥克風、搖桿、遊戲板、碟型衛星天線、掃描儀、觸敏板等等。此等及其他輸入裝置通常透過耦合至系統匯流排之一串列埠介面746連接至處理單元721,但是可由其他介面(諸如一並列埠、遊戲埠或一通用串列匯流排(USB))連接。此外,可由一麥克風提供系統之輸入以接收音訊輸入。
一監視器747或其他類型的顯示裝置亦經由一介面(諸如一視訊配接器748)連接至系統匯流排723。在本發明之一實施例中,監視器包括一液晶顯示器(LCD)。除監視器以外,電腦通常包含其他周邊輸出裝置(未展示),諸如揚聲器及印表機。監視器可包含一觸敏表面,其容許使用者藉由按壓或觸碰表面來介接電腦。
電腦720可使用邏輯連接至一或多個遠端電腦(諸如一遠端電腦749)而在一網路環境中操作。此等邏輯連接係由耦合至電腦720之一部分之一通信裝置或電腦720之一部分達成;實施例不限於一特定類型的通信裝置。遠端電腦749可為另一電腦、一伺服器、一路由器、一網路PC、一用戶端、一同級裝置或其他共同網路節點,且雖然通常包含上文相對於電腦720描述之許多或所有元件,但是圖6中僅繪示一記憶體儲存裝置750。圖6中描繪之邏輯連接包含一區域網路(LAN) 751及一廣域網路(WAN) 752。此等網路環境在辦公室、企業範圍電腦網路、內部網路及網際網路中係常見的。
當在一LAN網路環境中使用時,電腦720透過一網路介面或配接器753 (其係一種類型的通信裝置)連接至區域網路751。當在一WAN網路環境中時,電腦720通常包含一數據機754、一種類型的通信裝置或用於經由廣域網路752 (諸如網際網路)建立通信之任何其他類型的通信裝置。可在內部或外部之數據機754經由串列埠介面746連接至系統匯流排723。在一網路環境中,相對於個人電腦720或其部分描述之程式模組可儲存在遠端記憶體儲存裝置中。應明白,所示之網路連接係例示性的,且可使用用於在電腦之間建立一通信鏈路之其他構件及通信裝置。
已描述可結合來實踐本發明之實施例之硬體及操作環境。可結合來實踐本發明之實施例之電腦可為一習知電腦、手持式或掌上型電腦、一嵌入式系統中之一電腦、一分散式電腦或任何其他類型的電腦;本發明並無此限制。此一電腦通常包含一或多個處理單元作為其處理器及諸如一記憶體之一電腦可讀媒體。電腦亦可包含諸如一網路配接器或一數據機之一通信裝置,使得其能夠通信地耦合其他電腦。
雖然上文描述且隨附圖式中繪示較佳實施例,但是熟習此項技術者應明白,在不脫離本揭示內容之情況下可作出修改。此等修改被視為包括在本公開內容之範疇中之可能變體。CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS RELATED APPLICATIONS STATEMENT OF RELATED APPLICATIONS RELATED APPLICATIONS RELATED APPLICATIONS Patent Application Serial No. 13/922,800; U.S. Patent Application Serial No. 13/947,331, filed on Jul. 22, 2013; U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/839,675, filed on Jun. 16, 2013, U.S. Provisional Patent Application U.S. Provisional Application Serial No. 61/836,713, filed on Jun.
The present invention will now be described more fully hereinafter with reference to the accompanying drawings. The embodiments are also described so that the disclosure conveys the scope of the invention to those skilled in the art. However, the embodiments may be embodied in many different forms and should not be construed as being limited to the embodiments set forth herein.
This embodiment can be embodied as a method or apparatus, among other things. Thus, embodiments may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, a full software embodiment, a combination of software and a hardware embodiment (and the like). Moreover, although the embodiments have been described with reference to a portable or handheld device, they can be implemented in a desktop computer, laptop computer, tablet device, or any computing operation with sufficient computing resources in the embodiments. On the device.
Briefly, this embodiment describes a computer implementation method for generating and displaying a proximity prediction in selectable time increments. The user of the method selects a time increment and outputs a weather forecast that follows the selected time increment. A weather forecast is generated by a system known as a short-term weather forecaster for preparing forward-looking forecasts or a proximity predictor described more fully below.
1A is a block diagram of one method for generating and displaying a proximity prediction in selectable time increments, in accordance with an embodiment. The method shown in Figure 1 is implemented within the proximity predictor 200. A forecast weather value of 120 is prepared in the proximity predictor 200. The predicted weather value 120 is preset for a given period of time in a given time increment for a given zone. In an embodiment, the given time is a current time. In an embodiment, the preset time increment is the finest time increment, such as one minute. In another embodiment, there may be a selected time increment 100 that is less than a preset time increment, in which case an interpolation is required.
According to an embodiment, the predicted weather value may be prepared within the method, but the weather value may also be prepared by a weather value predictor that is not part of the method. In this case, the method described herein includes receiving the predicted weather value.
FIG. 1A further illustrates that the user selects a time increment of 100. This selection is made through a user interface. The selected time increment 100 is generally (but not necessarily) equal to or greater than the preset of the characterization weather forecast value 120.
According to an embodiment, the time increment can be memorized to subsequently retrieve the memory time increment instead of prompting the user to make a selection, thus allowing one of the time increments to be saved from one of the methods previously used.
According to an embodiment, the selected time increment 100 can include a plurality of selection time increments to allow for the generation of 110 weather forecasts by a variable time increment during a given period of time during which a weather forecast is generated. For example, in the first 5 minutes, it can be incremented by one minute, then one hour in the previous hour, and then become one of 30 minutes in the next few hours. Time increments generate and output weather forecasts.
Once the forecast meteorological value 120 and the selected time increment 100 are known, the method is ready to generate 110 weather forecasts in selected time increments. According to an embodiment, generating 110 weather forecasts may include two steps as illustrated by FIG. 1A. Since the predicted weather values are not all relevant for a user, one of the meteorological values is selected 125 to retain only the relevant values of the weather forecasts ultimately output by the method. A summary 130 can then occur.
Summary 130 is a portion of the method that converts the list of related forecast meteorological values generated for the preset time increments from selection 125 to a list of predicted weather values 120 for one of the selected time increments 100, the selected The time increment 100 is coarser than the preset time increment; that is, the selected time increment 100 is greater than or equal to the preset time increment.
According to an embodiment, the summary 130 is a rainfall guide, meaning that when a summary 130 occurs, it is verified whether a rain is likely to occur within the selected time increment 100, and if the answer is affirmative, the selected time increment 100 will be output. The type and rate of rainfall that may occur during the period. For example, in this embodiment, if the preset time increment of the forecast meteorological value 120 is one minute and if the user selects a five minute time increment of 100, the summary 130 will check the five forecasted weather that has occurred during the time period. A value of 120 and a check for a forecast of rainfall. If the four forecast meteorological values are 120 (for example) "no rain" and one is "possibly light rain", the summary 130 will allow for the possibility of outputting 140 light rain.
In other words, the selected time increment definition is referred to as a series of times of a particular time, which begins at a given time (which may or may not be the current time) and continues for a subsequent time separated by the selected time increment 100. The specific time of the series can be used to generate the time interval for the series of weather forecasts during the separation. The method includes selecting at least one of predicted weather values prepared for each particular time between predicted weather values prepared in preset time increments.
According to another embodiment, the summary 130 may include averaging the forecasted weather values 120 within the selected time increment 100. For example, in this embodiment, if the preset time increment of the forecast meteorological value 120 is one minute, and if the user selects a five minute time increment of 100, the summary 130 will include averaging the same type generated during the time period. The five forecast weather values 120 (eg, five temperature values or five pressure values or five PTypeRate values, etc.), and this average value will be used to display the series of weather forecasts for the time series. Averaging the weather value may include outputting an arithmetic mean or a geometric mean. All weather values will be avoided for averaging.
In other words, this embodiment can still use a specific time and a time interval separated by a particular time and defined by the previous embodiments described above. The series of weather forecasts are generated for time intervals between these specific times. In this embodiment, for each particular time, the method includes selecting between preset weather increments in a predetermined time increment and at a time ranging from one of the specific time periods, and then averaging such The weather value is used to generate a weather forecast within this time interval. During display, this weather forecast can be associated with the closest specific time for the convenience of the user, rather than being associated with the time interval.
In other embodiments, the summary 130 may include other algorithms or selection rules to determine how to aggregate the forecast weather values 120 generated for the fine preset time increments into a more coarse selected time increment 100.
Output 140 can include displaying the series of weather forecasts relative to a given period. According to an embodiment, this given period may vary depending on the selected time increment 100.
The output 140 can be updated at a given frequency to allow the user to learn the most recent series of weather forecasts.
According to other embodiments, the output 140 may include saving the series of weather forecasts or transmitting the series of weather forecasts to another computer.
According to an embodiment, the selected time increment 100 may vary over a given period of time during which the series of weather forecasts are output.
Figure 1B illustrates a different embodiment of the method of embedding the above. The difference from the embodiment presented in Figure 1A is the fact that the selection of a time increment 100 is not made at the beginning of the method. In the present embodiment, once the forecast meteorological value 120 is known, a preset time increment of the meteorological value is considered for generating a weather forecast of 110 in a predetermined time increment. The output 140 of the series of weather forecasts occurs to present 150 to the user. The user can then select a time increment of 100. This selection returns the method to generate a weather forecast of 110 in real time increments, followed by an output 140 in actual time increments and presenting 150 a series of weather forecasts until the user selects a new time increment of 100.
The present invention is a block diagram of a suitable proximity predictor 200, such as described in co-owned and co-invented U.S. Patent Application Serial No. 13/856, 923, filed on Apr. 4, 2013. .
As shown in Figures 2A and 2B, the proximity predictor 200 receives meteorological observations from different sources 201 (such as meteorological observation sources) including, but not limited to, point observations 201-2 (e.g., by the user and Feedback provided by the automatic station), weather radar 201-3, satellite 201-4 and other types of meteorological observations 201-1 and weather forecast sources, such as numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output 201-5 and weather forecast and consultation 201- 6.
The proximity predictor 200 includes a memory 220 and a processor 210. The memory 220 includes instructions for the method and also stores data from the weather source 201, intermediate results, and weather forecasts. The processor 210 allows the proximity predictor 200 to perform calculations.
The proximity predictor 200 can receive information 230 from a user via a communication network 254. According to an embodiment, this information 230 can be a selected time increment of 100.
The proximity predictor 200 outputs a weather forecast or a series of weather forecasts.
In an embodiment, the proximity predictor 200 includes a PType distribution predictor 202 and a PRate distribution predictor 204. The PType predictor 202 receives meteorological observations from different sources 201 and outputs a probability distribution of a given latitude and longitude (and/or position) of the type of rainfall over a time interval. E.g:
a. Snow: 10%
b. Rain: 30%
c. Freezing rain: 60%
d. Hail: 0%
e. Ice beads: 0%
Similarly, the PRate predictor 204 receives meteorological observations of a given latitude and longitude from different sources 201 and indicates one of the probability distributions of the output one rainfall rate (PRate) as one of the expression uncertainties. For example, PRate can be distributed at a given rate of latitude and longitude in a time interval or a rate range. E.g:
f. No rainfall: 30%
g. Light rain: 40%
h. moderate rain: 20%
i. Heavy rain: 10%
The PRate value and the PType value output by the PRate predictor 204 and the PType predictor 202 are sent to a forecast combiner 206 to combine the equal values into a single value PTypeRate representing a rain result. For example, if the value of PType is "snow" and the value of PRate is large, the combined value of PTypeRate can be "grand snow".
For a given latitude and longitude, the system outputs a predicted PTypeRate distribution for a predefined time interval (fixed (eg, 1 minute) or variable (eg, 1 minute, then 5 minutes, then 10 minutes, etc.)). The system can pre-calculate and store the predicted PTypeRate distribution or calculate the PTypeRate distribution in real time over a sequence of time intervals. For each time interval, a PTypeRate distribution indicates that a certainty or uncertainty of a PTypeRate will occur.
Referring to FIG. 2B, the forecast combiner 206 receives the final PRate distribution from the PType predictor 202 and receives the final PRate distribution from the PRate predictor 204 to combine them into one of the PTypeRate distribution values, each PTypeRate distribution value indicating receipt of a certain The probability of a certain type of rainfall at a rate. An example is provided below.
Assume that the PType distribution is as follows: snow 50%, rain 0%, freezing rain 30%, hail 0%, ice beads 20%, and PRate distribution as follows: no 0%, small 10%, medium 20%, large 30%, maximum 40% The PTypeRate distribution can be as follows:
Thus, the forecast combiner 206 multiplies the probability of each type of rainfall by the probability of rainfall at each rate to obtain a probability of receiving a certain type of rainfall at a certain rate (eg, 20% likelihood of heavy snow, or The 12% probability is extremely freezing rain). In one embodiment, the probability range can be associated with textual information to display textual information to the user rather than digitally displaying the probability. For example, a chance between 5% and 15% can be associated with the word "small likelihood", and a chance between 40% and 70% can be related to the word "probability" or "very likely" Union, etc., can show "very likely heavy snow" instead of display: 60% possibility is heavy snow.
In another embodiment, two or more different PTypeRates may be combined along one or more dimensions (the dimensions include: rate, type, or probability). For example, the result of this combination may include: it may be as small as moderate rain, it may be as small as moderate rain or heavy snow; it may rain or snow; it may rain or snow; it may be small to moderate rain or heavy snow or small Hail; may be rainy, snowy, or hail; it may rain, snow, or hail.
Thus, the proximity predictor 200 receives the location requiring the nearcast and the time and/or time interval required for the nearcast, and outputs the PTypeRate distribution for the given location and the particular time.
There may be another embodiment of the proximity predictor 200. In this embodiment, the proximity predictor includes a PType selector/receiver and a PRate distribution predictor. Similar to the embodiment shown in FIG. 2B, the PRate distribution predictor receives meteorological observations of a given latitude and longitude from different sources, and expresses one probability distribution of the output one rainfall rate (PRate) with one of the expression uncertainties. . For example, PRate can output a probability rate of a given rate of latitude and longitude over a time interval or a range of rates. In a non-limiting example, the probability distribution of the rain rate can be:
1) No rainfall: 30%
2) Light rain: 40%
3) Moderate rain: 20%
4) Heavy rain: 10%
One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that various other types and numbers of categories exist in addition to the examples provided above.
However, the PType selector/receiver does not output a probability distribution associated with different types of rainfall. Instead, the PType selector/receiver receives meteorological observations of a given latitude and longitude from different sources to select a type of rainfall from a different list of rainfall types. For example, based on inputs received from the sources, the PType selector/receiver selects one of the most likely occurrences of a given latitude and longitude (and/or location) from the following list of rainfall types:
1) Snow
2) Rain
3) Freezing rain
4) Hail
5) Ice beads
6) Mixing (eg a+c, a+d, b+c, a+e, c+e, d+e, etc.)
From the list of rainfall types (such as one of the above), only one type of rainfall is selected for a given location. For example, one of the most likely types of rainfall at a given time can be selected by mixing one of the snow and the freezing rain. The type of rainfall is not associated with a probability value. In fact, because only one rainfall type is selected for any given location and time corresponding to that location, the selected rainfall type will have a 100% effective probability value.
The list of rainfall types that can be used to select a type can include one of a mixture type that represents one of two different rainfall types (eg, snow and freezing rain, hail, ice, etc.). A hybrid type is considered to be useful for selecting one of the distinct rainfall types, and as shown in type (6) of the listing above, there may be many different hybrid types representing different combinations of various rainfall types.
In another embodiment, instead of selecting the type of rainfall by the PType selector/receiver, the rainfall type is received from one of the sources external to the neighboring predictor. In other words, the proximity predictor 200 can request a remote source (eg, a third party weather service) to identify the type of rainfall most likely to occur at a given location at a given time and receive one of the most likely types of rainfall from the source. Respond. In this case, the selection of the type of rainfall is not performed by the proximity predictor. The proximity predictor is only input to the selected type of rainfall and thereby saves the computing power of the proximity predictor required to perform the selection.
The selected rainfall type and PRate value output by the PType selector/receiver and the PRate distribution predictor are combined. For example, if the selected rainfall type is snow and the PRate value is as described above, the combined information will indicate:
1) No snow: 30%
2) Xiaoxue: 40%
3) Zhongxue: 20%
4) Heavy snow: 10%.
Since only one type of rainfall is concerned, performing a combination to output the final weather forecast data requires only a minimal amount of computing power. Since the PType selector/receiver will output a type of rainfall (1) of a given position and time, if the PRate distribution predictor outputs m probability distributions, the final weather forecast data will only include m (m*1) Distribution of weather forecasts.
Similar to the embodiment shown in FIG. 2, when outputting the final weather forecast data, the probability range can be associated with the text information to display the text information to the user instead of displaying the probability in digital. For example, a chance between 5% and 15% can be associated with the word "small likelihood", and a chance between 40% and 70% can be related to the word "probability" or "very likely" In addition, this can show "great possibility is heavy snow" instead of showing: 60% of the possibility is heavy snow. One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that many other variations are possible in addition to the examples provided above.
Thus, the proximity predictor receives the location requiring the nearcast and the time and/or time interval required for the nearcast, and outputs the selected PType and PRate distribution for the given location and time.
In some situations where efficiency is desired, the proximity predictor according to this alternative embodiment of the proximity predictor can be superior to the embodiment shown in Figure 2B. This other embodiment can be implemented using processing capabilities that are much smaller than the embodiment of Figure 2B. However, the embodiment of Figure 2B may be more stable than the other embodiment described above in providing a more detailed and accurate snapshot of weather forecast data for any given location and time.
3 is an example of one of the network environments in which embodiments may be practiced. The proximity predictor 200 can be implemented on a server 250 that can be accessed by a plurality of client computers 252 via a communication network 254. Client computer 252 can include, but is not limited to, a laptop, a desktop computer, a portable computing device, a tablet, and the like. Using a client computer 252, each user can select the selected time increment 100 and view the displayed forecast weather value. As discussed in connection with FIG. 2B, the server accesses the weather source 201 via a telecommunications network. The server 250 can store map data on it.
According to an embodiment, the client computer 252 can be used to locate a weather forecast for a given zone, which can be the current location of the user. This positioning can occur through activation of one of the computing devices or through a GPS navigation device.
The client computer 252 should include a user interface, such as a screen, to allow for the output of 140 weather forecasts. At the user interface, the user can select a time increment of 100.
FIG. 5 illustrates a screen capture screen of a user interface of one of a series of weather forecasts displayed by a presentation 150 in a predetermined one-minute increment of time, in accordance with an embodiment. The highlighted white display shows the time increment 100 that has been selected by the user. Since the number 1 is displayed in reverse, the weather forecast shown in Figure 5 ("no rain" in this example) is displayed in increments of one minute. This series of weather forecasts is related to location 500 and time 550.
6 is a screen capture screen of a user interface of one of a series of weather forecasts displayed by the output 140 in a preset five minute time increment according to an embodiment. As shown in Figure 5, the highlighted white display shows the time increment 100 that has been selected by the user. Since the number 5 is displayed in reverse, the weather forecast shown in Figure 6 ("no rain" in this example) is displayed in increments of five minutes. This series of weather forecasts is related to location 500 and time 550.
HARDWARE AND OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT FIG. 4 illustrates an exemplary diagram of a suitable computing operating environment in which one embodiment of the present invention may be practiced. The following description is associated with FIG. 4 and is intended to provide a brief general description of one suitable computer hardware and a suitable computing environment that can be combined to implement the embodiments. The implementation of the embodiments is not required to all of the components, and variations in the configuration and type of components may be made without departing from the spirit or scope of the embodiments.
Although not required, the embodiments are described in the general context of computer-executable instructions, such as a computer (such as a personal computer, a handheld or handheld computer, intelligent). Telephone) or an embedded system (such as a consumer device or a computer in a dedicated industrial controller) to perform. In general, program modules contain routines, programs, objects, components, data structures, etc. that perform specific tasks or implement specific abstract data types.
Moreover, those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments can be practiced using other computer system configurations including handheld devices, microprocessor systems, microprocessor-based or programmable consumer electronics, Internet PCS, small computers, large computers, cellular phones, smart phones, display pagers, radio frequency (RF) devices, infrared (IR) devices, personal digital assistants (PDAs), laptops, wearable computers, A tablet, an IPOD device or an IPAD device family manufactured by Apple Computer, an integrated device that combines one or more of the foregoing devices, or any other computing device capable of performing the methods and systems described herein. The embodiments may also be practiced in a decentralized computing environment in which tasks are performed by remote processing devices that are coupled through a communications network. In a distributed computing environment, the program modules can be located in the local and remote memory storage devices.
The exemplary hardware and operating environment of FIG. 4 includes a general purpose computing device in the form of a computer 720. The computer 720 includes a processor unit 721, a system memory 722, and a system bus 723. The system bus 723 will include Various system components of system memory are operatively coupled to processing unit 721. There may be only one processing unit 721 or more than one processing unit 721 such that the processor of computer 720 includes a single central processing unit (CPU) or a plurality of processing units collectively referred to as a parallel processing environment. The computer 720 can be a conventional computer, a decentralized computer, or any other type of computer; these embodiments are not so limited.
System bus 723 can be any of several types of bus bars, including a memory bus or memory controller, a peripheral bus, and a local bus using any of a variety of bus architectures. The system memory may also be referred to simply as a memory, and includes a read only memory (ROM) 724 and a random access memory (RAM) 725. A basic input/output system (BIOS) 726, which contains one of the basic routines, such as facilitating the transfer of information between components within computer 720 during startup, is stored in ROM 724. In an embodiment of the invention, the computer 720 further includes a hard disk drive 727 for reading from or writing to a hard disk (not shown) for reading from a removable disk 729. Read or write to a disk drive 728 of the removable disk 729 and for reading or writing to a removable optical disk from a removable optical disk 731 (such as a CD ROM or other optical medium) One of the 731 disc players 730. In an alternative embodiment of the invention, volatile or non-volatile RAM is used to simulate the functions provided by hard disk drive 727, magnetic disk 729, and optical disk drive 730 to save power and reduce the size of the system. In such alternative embodiments, the RAM can be fixed in a computer system, or it can be a removable RAM device such as a compact flash memory card.
In one embodiment of the present invention, the hard disk drive 727, the magnetic disk drive 728, and the optical disk drive 730 are respectively connected to the system bus 723 by a hard disk drive interface 732, a disk drive interface 733, and a disk drive interface 734. The disk drives and their associated computer readable media provide non-volatile storage of computer readable instructions, data structures, program modules and other data of the computer 720. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that any type of computer readable medium (such as magnetic cymbals, flash memory cards, digital video discs, Bernoulli cassettes, random access) that can store data that can be accessed by a computer. Memory (RAM), read only memory (ROM), etc. can be used in an exemplary operating environment.
A plurality of program modules can be stored on the hard disk, the magnetic disk 729, the optical disk 731, the ROM 724 or the RAM 725. The programming module includes an operating system 735, one or more application programs 736, other program modules 737, and program data 738. . A user can input commands and information into the personal computer 720 through, for example, a keyboard 740 and an indicator device 742. Other input devices (not shown) may include a microphone, joystick, game board, satellite dish, scanner, touch sensitive panel, and the like. These and other input devices are typically coupled to processing unit 721 via a serial port 746 coupled to the system bus, but may be connected by other interfaces such as a parallel port, game cartridge, or a universal serial bus (USB). . Additionally, the input of the system can be provided by a microphone to receive the audio input.
A monitor 747 or other type of display device is also coupled to system bus 723 via an interface, such as a video adapter 748. In one embodiment of the invention, the monitor includes a liquid crystal display (LCD). In addition to monitors, computers typically include other peripheral output devices (not shown), such as speakers and printers. The monitor can include a touch-sensitive surface that allows the user to interface with the computer by pressing or touching the surface.
Computer 720 can operate in a network environment using logical connections to one or more remote computers, such as a remote computer 749. These logical connections are made up of a portion of a communication device or computer 720 coupled to one of the portions of computer 720; embodiments are not limited to a particular type of communication device. The remote computer 749 can be another computer, a server, a router, a network PC, a client, a peer device, or other common network node, and although typically includes many of the above described with respect to the computer 720 or All components, but only one memory storage device 750 is shown in FIG. The logical connection depicted in FIG. 6 includes a local area network (LAN) 751 and a wide area network (WAN) 752. These network environments are commonplace in offices, enterprise-wide computer networks, intranets, and the Internet.
When used in a LAN network environment, computer 720 is coupled to regional network 751 via a network interface or adapter 753, which is a type of communication device. When in a WAN network environment, computer 720 typically includes a data machine 754, a type of communication device, or any other type of communication device for establishing communications over a wide area network 752, such as the Internet. Data machine 754, internal or external, can be coupled to system bus 723 via serial port 746. In a networked environment, the program modules described with respect to the personal computer 720 or portions thereof can be stored in the remote memory storage device. It will be appreciated that the network connections shown are exemplary and other components and communication means for establishing a communication link between computers can be used.
The hardware and operating environment in which the embodiments of the present invention may be practiced are described. A computer that can be combined to practice embodiments of the present invention can be a conventional computer, a handheld or palmtop computer, a computer in an embedded system, a distributed computer, or any other type of computer; limit. Such a computer typically includes one or more processing units as its processor and a computer readable medium such as a memory. The computer may also include a communication device such as a network adapter or a data modem such that it can communicatively couple to other computers.
While the preferred embodiment has been described and illustrated in the drawings, it will be understood by those skilled in the art Such modifications are considered to include possible variations in the scope of the present disclosure.
100‧‧‧所選擇時間增量100‧‧‧Selected time increment
110‧‧‧產生 110‧‧‧generated
120‧‧‧預報氣象值 120‧‧‧ forecast weather values
125‧‧‧選擇 125‧‧‧Select
130‧‧‧彙總 Summary of 130‧‧
140‧‧‧輸出 140‧‧‧ Output
150‧‧‧呈現 150‧‧‧present
200‧‧‧臨近預報器 200‧‧‧ Proximity forecaster
201‧‧‧氣象源 201‧‧‧Weather source
201-1‧‧‧氣象觀測 201-1‧‧‧Weather observation
201-2‧‧‧點觀測 201-2‧‧ ‧ observation
201-3‧‧‧氣象雷達 201-3‧‧‧Weather radar
201-4‧‧‧衛星 201-4‧‧‧ Satellite
201-5‧‧‧數值氣象預測模型輸出 201-5‧‧‧ Numerical weather prediction model output
201-6‧‧‧氣象預報與諮詢 201-6‧‧‧Weather Forecasting and Consulting
202‧‧‧降雨類型(PType)分佈預報器 202‧‧‧Rain type (PType) distribution forecaster
204‧‧‧降雨速率(PRate)分佈預報器 204‧‧‧Rain rate (PRate) distribution predictor
206‧‧‧預報組合器 206‧‧‧ Forecast combiner
210‧‧‧處理器 210‧‧‧ processor
220‧‧‧記憶體 220‧‧‧ memory
230‧‧‧資訊 230‧‧‧Information
240‧‧‧氣象預報 240‧‧‧Weather forecast
250‧‧‧伺服器 250‧‧‧Server
252-1‧‧‧用戶端電腦 252-1‧‧‧Customer Computer
252-2‧‧‧用戶端電腦 252-2‧‧‧User computer
252-3‧‧‧用戶端電腦 252-3‧‧‧User computer
254‧‧‧通信網路 254‧‧‧Communication network
500‧‧‧位置 500‧‧‧ position
550‧‧‧時間 550‧‧ hours
720‧‧‧電腦 720‧‧‧ computer
721‧‧‧處理器單元 721‧‧‧ processor unit
722‧‧‧系統記憶體 722‧‧‧ system memory
723‧‧‧系統匯流排 723‧‧‧System Bus
724‧‧‧唯讀記憶體(ROM) 724‧‧‧Reading Memory (ROM)
725‧‧‧隨機存取記憶體(RAM) 725‧‧‧ Random Access Memory (RAM)
726‧‧‧基本輸入/輸出系統(BIOS) 726‧‧‧Basic Input/Output System (BIOS)
727‧‧‧硬碟機 727‧‧‧ hard disk drive
728‧‧‧磁碟機 728‧‧‧Disk machine
729‧‧‧可抽換式磁碟 729‧‧‧Removable Disk
730‧‧‧光碟機 730‧‧‧CD player
731‧‧‧可抽換式光碟 731‧‧‧Removable CD
732‧‧‧硬碟機介面 732‧‧‧hard drive interface
733‧‧‧磁碟機介面 733‧‧‧Disk interface
734‧‧‧光碟機介面 734‧‧‧CD player interface
735‧‧‧作業系統 735‧‧‧ operating system
736‧‧‧應用程式 736‧‧‧Application
737‧‧‧程式模組 737‧‧‧Program Module
738‧‧‧程式資料 738‧‧‧Program data
740‧‧‧鍵盤 740‧‧‧ keyboard
742‧‧‧指標裝置 742‧‧‧ indicator device
746‧‧‧串列埠介面 746‧‧‧Serial interface
747‧‧‧監視器 747‧‧‧Monitor
748‧‧‧視訊配接器 748‧‧‧Video Adapter
749‧‧‧遠端電腦 749‧‧‧ remote computer
750‧‧‧記憶體儲存裝置 750‧‧‧Memory storage device
751‧‧‧區域網路(LAN) 751‧‧‧Local Network (LAN)
752‧‧‧廣域網路(WAN) 752‧‧‧ Wide Area Network (WAN)
753‧‧‧配接器 753‧‧‧ Adapter
754‧‧‧數據機 754‧‧‧Data machine
結合隨附圖式根據以下詳細描述將明白本發明之進一步特徵及優點,其中:Further features and advantages of the present invention will become apparent from the Detailed Description of the Drawing.
圖1A係根據一實施例之用於按可選擇時間增量產生並顯示一臨近預報之一方法之一方塊圖; 1A is a block diagram of one method for generating and displaying a proximity prediction in selectable time increments, in accordance with an embodiment;
圖1B係根據另一實施例之用於按可選擇時間增量產生並顯示一臨近預報之一方法之一方塊圖; 1B is a block diagram of one method for generating and displaying a proximity prediction in selectable time increments in accordance with another embodiment;
圖2A係用於實施該等實施例之一合適的臨近預報器之一方塊圖; Figure 2A is a block diagram of one of the suitable proximity predictors for implementing one of the embodiments;
圖2B係用於實施該等實施例之一合適的臨近預報器之一更詳細方塊圖; Figure 2B is a more detailed block diagram of one of the suitable proximity predictors for implementing one of the embodiments;
圖3係其中可實踐實施例之一網路環境之一實例; Figure 3 is an example of one of the network environments in which embodiments may be practiced;
圖4係繪示其中可實踐本發明之實施例之一合適的運算操作環境之一例示性圖; 4 is a diagram showing an example of a suitable operational operating environment in which one embodiment of the present invention may be practiced;
圖5係上面可實踐方法實施例之一使用者介面之一螢幕擷取畫面,繪示按一分鐘時間增量顯示之一氣象預報; FIG. 5 is a screen capture screen of a user interface of one of the above practical method embodiments, showing a weather forecast displayed in one minute increments;
圖6係上面可實踐方法實施例之一使用者介面之一螢幕擷取畫面,繪示按五分鐘時間增量顯示之一氣象預報。 FIG. 6 is a screen capture screen of a user interface of one of the above practical method embodiments, showing a weather forecast displayed in increments of five minutes.
應注意,遍及隨附圖式,由相似參考數字識別相似特徵。 It should be noted that similar features are identified by like reference numerals throughout the drawings.
Claims (15)
Applications Claiming Priority (4)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| US13/856,923 US20140303893A1 (en) | 2013-04-04 | 2013-04-04 | Method and system for nowcasting precipitation based on probability distributions |
| US13/856,923 | 2013-04-04 | ||
| US13/947,331 | 2013-07-22 | ||
| US13/947,331 US20140372038A1 (en) | 2013-04-04 | 2013-07-22 | Method for generating and displaying a nowcast in selectable time increments |
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| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| TW201920988A true TW201920988A (en) | 2019-06-01 |
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| TW108102365A TW201920988A (en) | 2013-04-04 | 2014-04-07 | Method for generating and displaying a nowcast in selectable time increments |
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