RU2010266C1 - Method of long-term prediction of duration of solar activity period - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: metrology. SUBSTANCE: method of long-term prediction of duration of solar activity period includes determination of longitudes of planets of solar system for duration of prediction, determination of value of amplitude of variable component of speed of oscillations of the Sun under action of gravitational attraction of planets for each predicted value of longitudes of planets. Duration of solar activity period is found by timed when amplitude of variable component of speed reduces to zero. EFFECT: improved accuracy of prediction. 1 dwg

Description

 The invention relates to meteorology, and more specifically to methods for predicting extreme weather conditions (typhoons, hurricanes, droughts, rainy seasons, etc.) on Earth, the occurrence of which depends on changes in the level of solar activity and can be most effectively used in agriculture to predict yield in medicine - to assess the likelihood of outbreaks of various epidemics, as well as in other areas of human activity, which are noticeably influenced by disturbances in the atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere of the Earth, repenting under the influence of variations in solar activity.

 There are a large number of publications on the study of the peculiarities of time-varying levels of solar activity and possible mechanisms of such variability [1, 2].

 It was found that the period of even the most significant (approximately 11-year) cycle of solar activity is not constant, but is subject to significant fluctuations in the interval from about 7-9 to 14-17 years. Considering that the causes of such fluctuations are not yet known and there is no theory that can accurately predict the duration of the current cycle of solar activity, the development of methods for their prediction is based on various approaches.

 There is a method for long-term forecasting the duration of the solar activity cycle, which consists in conducting a long (100 years or more) series of measurements of index values (Wolf numbers, total spot area, etc.) of solar activity and their mathematical representation in the form of a superposition of cycles with different periods, according to which predict the possible duration of the current cycle [2].

 Despite the fact that this method allows one to mathematically satisfactorily describe the already measured values of the solar activity indices and their frequency, it does not provide a reliable forecast of the duration of the current cycle, since the error of any (even the most accurate) mathematical approximation of specific data rapidly increases outside the analyzed series of measured particles.

 A known method for long-term forecasting the duration of the solar activity cycle, based on an empirically identified relationship between the brightness of the eclipsing moon and the phase of an approximately 11-year cycle of sunspots [2].

 The disadvantage of this method is its low reliability, arising due to the static (regression) nature of the established relationship, as a result of which, with each specific forecast, significant errors in determining the duration of the cycle are possible.

 The best-known analogue is the method for long-term forecasting the duration of the solar activity cycle, based on the determination of the longitudes of the planets of the solar system for the forecast period [2]. At the same time, the longitudes of the planets are distinguished at the moments of the “quadratures” of Jupiter and Saturn, using them, using some arbitrary and non-obvious assumptions, a complex mathematical function is constructed, based on which the possible duration of the corresponding cycles is calculated.

 Known disadvantages of this method are its complexity and low reliability resulting from the arbitrariness of some of the assumptions used.

 The aim of the invention is to simplify and increase the reliability of the forecast.

 The goal is achieved by the fact that in the method for long-term forecasting the duration of the solar activity cycle, based on determining the values of the longitudes of the planets of the solar system for the forecast period, for each predicted value of the longitudes of the planets, the amplitude of the variable component of the solar oscillation velocity is determined under the influence of the resulting time-dependent gravitational attraction of the planets, and the duration of the solar activity cycle is determined by the dates at which the amplitude of the variable velocity component turns into ol.

 According to the analysis of the model of the gravitational effects of the planets on the Sun, it was found that the average level of solar activity, which varies with the average (over a long time) period of about 11 years, is uniquely related to the value of the speed of the slow mechanical vibrations of the Sun under the influence of the complexly changing resulting gravitational attraction of the planets. Moreover, solar activity minima are observed at time intervals corresponding to a change in the signs of the amplitude of the variable component of the oscillation velocity and its second derivative in time. Moreover, the error of a particularly long-term forecast (and epignosis) of the periods of minimum solar activity depends not only on the gravitational effects of Jupiter, Venus, Earth, and Saturn, which make the main contribution to the magnitude of the mechanical vibrations of the Sun, but also on all other planets, including Neptune and Pluto.

 Identified patterns are fully taken into account in the invention. Moreover, the determination of the speed of mechanical oscillations of the Sun is much simpler and physically justified than the compilation of weakly substantiated mathematical functions of the longitudes of the planets at the moments of "quadratures". In turn, physically justified in the invention, taking into account the influence of all the planets increases the reliability of forecasting the timing of each minimum solar activity.

 As a result of the implementation of the proposed method, it is possible to increase the reliability of determining not only the terms of the minimum solar activity, and therefore the duration of the entire cycle, but also the timing of the maximum, as well as the most significant changes in solar activity associated with faster (than the 11-year period) changes in the speed of the Sun under the influence of beats between periods of gravitational influence of various planets (for example, Jupiter and Venus, Earth and Venus, Jupiter and Earth, etc.).

 A necessary and sufficient condition for the implementation of the proposed method is the availability of data on the parameters of the planets and their orbits, which are published annually, for example, in astronomical yearbooks.

 The method is illustrated in the drawing, which shows the results of determining the values of the amplitude of the variable velocity component Δ V of the slow oscillations of the Sun under the influence of gravitational attraction of the planets and the corresponding values of the average annual indices (Wolf numbers) of solar activity W for the period from 1950 to 1990.

 The method is implemented as follows.

 First, for example, at ground-based observatories, current measurements of the coordinates of each planet of the solar system and (for monitoring) the values of the solar activity indices corresponding to the current position of the planets are carried out. Moreover, according to the results of the current measurement of the coordinates of the planets, the accuracy of determining their position, predicted from previous measurements, is checked. Based on the results of the verification, a forecast is made of the values of longitudes (for example, in the heliocentric coordinate system) of the planets for a period of up to 15-20 years in advance with respect to the current moment in time.

/t =

/t·γ·M_п/R $\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{\text{2}}{\text{п}}$ _с(t), (1) где

- единичный вектор направления от центра массы Солнца к центру массы планеты (т. е. зависящий от долготы и широты планеты в гелиоцентрической системе координат); γ - постоянная тяготения; М_п- масса планеты; R_пс - расстояние от Солнца до планеты.Under the influence of gravitational attraction from each planet, the mass of the Sun at each moment of time t experiences an acceleration of magnitude:

/ t =

/ t · γ · M _p / R $\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{\text{2}}{\text{P}}$ _c (t), (1) where

is the unit direction vector from the center of mass of the sun to the center of mass of the planet (i.e., depending on the longitude and latitude of the planet in the heliocentric coordinate system); γ is the constant of gravity; M _p - the mass of the planet; R _ps - the distance from the Sun to the planet.

(t) =

(t) (2)
Воздействующее на Солнце результирующее ускорение

приводит к тому, что Солнце в каждый момент времени t будет дополнительно перемещаться со скоростью

(t) =

(t)dt (3)
При этом среднее за некоторый интервал времени Т (например, за месяц, год и т. д. ) значение скорости составляет

= (t_i)=

(t)dt. (4)
Поскольку изменения модуля скорости Солнца определяются только ее переменной компонентной, то значение амплитуды переменной компоненты (как мгновенной, так и средней за интервал Т скорости) можно определить следующим образом:
ΔV =

-

, (5) где

- среднее за длительное время (не меньше нескольких оборотов планет вокруг Солнца) значение модуля скорости перемещения Солнца под влиянием гравитационного притяжения планет.Using (1), for the resulting acceleration of the Sun under the influence of the gravitational attraction of all planets, we can write the following relation:

(t) =

(t) (2)
Resulting Acceleration Affecting the Sun

leads to the fact that the Sun at each moment in time t will additionally move with speed

(t) =

(t) dt (3)
Moreover, the average value over a certain time interval T (for example, for a month, a year, etc.) is

= (t _i ) =

(t) dt. (4)
Since changes in the solar velocity modulus are determined only by its variable component, the amplitude value of the variable component (both instantaneous and average velocity over the interval T) can be determined as follows:
ΔV =

-

, (5) where

- the average over a long time (not less than a few revolutions of the planets around the Sun) the value of the module of the speed of movement of the Sun under the influence of gravitational attraction of the planets.

 Using expression (5) and relations (1) - (4), for each moment of time or any interval, it is possible without any assumptions (used in the prototype [2]) to explicitly determine the amplitudes of the variable component of the speed of oscillation of the Sun under the influence of the resulting gravitational attraction of the planets.

A specific example of determining the change over time of the annual average values of the amplitude of the variable component of the speed of movement of the Sun under the influence of gravitational attraction of the planets for the period from 1950 to 2000 is presented in FIG. 1a. A comparison of the times when Δ V vanishes with the periods of the minima of the measured values of the Wolf numbers W in FIG. 1b shows their good agreement. Moreover, a more detailed analysis of the change in the monthly average values of W showed that the time interval during which each minimum of solar activity is stably observed is completely consistent with the values of t _i at which Δ V and its second time derivative become zero.

 The obtained full correspondence between the observed dates of solar activity minima and the results of their determination by the proposed method not only indicates its high reliability, but also proves the validity of the model of the gravitational influence of planets on solar activity, which was used to develop the proposed method.

 As the analysis of relations (1) - (5) and a specific example of the implementation of the proposed method showed, the more accurately the values of the planet longitudes are determined in time intervals near Δ V≈ 0, the smaller the absolute value of the error in determining the duration of the solar activity cycle. The main reason for this is that the dates of the minimum solar activity turn out to depend not on the average (over the period of revolution), but on the instantaneous values of the angular velocity of the planets around the Sun, which (due to the eccentricity of the orbits) change with time.

 Thus, the proposed method allows not only physically sound and reliable to predict the duration of the cycles of solar activity, but also the results obtained with its help made it possible for the first time to explain the previously unknown cause of the observed changes in the duration of such cycles. (56). 1. Chizhevsky A. L. Earth echo of solar storms. M.: Thought, 1976, p. 367.

 2. Vtinsky Yu. I. Cyclicity and forecasts of solar activity. L.: Science, 1973, p. 257.

Claims (1)

 METHOD FOR LONG-TERM FORECAST OF DURATION OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLE, based on the determination of the values of the longitudes of the planets of the solar system for the forecast period, characterized in that for each predicted value of the longitudes of the planets, the amplitude of the variable speed component of the growth rate of rotation is determined the solar activity cycle is determined according to the time period for which the amplitude of the variable velocity component vanishes.

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