JPH0816914B2 - Equipment renewal time evaluation advice device - Google Patents

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION [Industrial field of use] The present invention relates to an equipment renewal time evaluation advice device that advises the evaluation of equipment renewal time.

[Conventional technology]

Various facilities are installed in facilities such as high-rise buildings, housing complexes, hospitals, and factories. For example, the equipment includes air conditioning equipment, elevator equipment, lighting equipment, disaster prevention / crime prevention equipment, medical equipment, heat source plant equipment, transportation equipment, etc. These equipment are various equipment as equipment, various control devices, various sensors, etc. It has. For example, air conditioning equipment is equipped with a large number of equipment such as compressors, pumps, and fan coil units.

When a failure or abnormality occurs in these facilities, the equipment is repaired or replaced as appropriate, but some of the functions of the facility stop until the repair or replacement is completed.

For this reason, a maintenance plan is usually made, and the equipment is regularly inspected based on this maintenance plan. This maintenance plan is established for each piece of equipment using a cycle estimated from past experience or a cycle recommended by the manufacturer of the manufacturing, and generally shortens the cycle when the life of the equipment approaches. That is, if the life of a facility approaches its end and deterioration and wear of its component equipment progresses, inspection costs will increase, but the frequency of breakdowns will also increase and maintenance personnel will have to increase to maintain the operating capacity of the facility. Inevitably, the running cost will increase. In this case, the running cost of equipment is the sum of energy cost and operating cost, and the operating cost includes regular inspection cost, personnel cost for securing maintenance personnel, and various expenses required for repair / replacement. Costs are included.

Against the rise in running costs of such equipment,
The so-called owner is required to evaluate and judge when to update the owned equipment.

[Problems to be Solved by the Invention]

However, in order to evaluate and judge the time to renew the equipment in consideration of various circumstances, it is necessary for the owner to arrange a huge amount of data on the desk and manually arrange the data, and to consider the data obtained from them. It takes a great deal of effort.

For this reason, the owner often decides the renewal time mainly by directly following the advice of the maintenance staff or the equipment manufacturer.

However, following the advice in this way may result in missing the optimal renewal time for the owner in view of various circumstances such as problems with financing.
In addition, sometimes it is economical to repair and use it, but the equipment is renewed early, or conversely, it is cheaper to renew while using it while repairing, but it is not renewed. This may result in inconvenience, which may result in expensive expenses for the owner without knowing it.

[Means for solving the problem]

The present invention has been made to solve such a problem, and a failure interval estimating means for estimating a failure interval of existing equipment based on provided failure data, and a running cost prediction curve of the existing equipment are stored. Storage means, correction means for correcting the running cost prediction curve stored in the first storage means based on the estimated failure interval, second storage means for storing the running cost prediction curve of newly introduced equipment, and It is provided with a display means for displaying the running cost forecast curve of the facility and the running cost forecast curve of the newly introduced facility in an overlapping manner.

[Action]

Therefore, according to the present invention, the running cost forecast curve of the existing facility is appropriately corrected according to the actual situation and is displayed so as to overlap the running cost forecast curve of the newly introduced facility.

〔Example〕

Hereinafter, the equipment renewal time evaluation advice device according to the present invention will be described in detail. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a building supervisory control system including an embodiment of this equipment renewal time evaluation advice device.

This system monitors and controls various facilities such as the environment, hygiene, and disaster prevention of the building, and is arranged in the building with a central control unit 1 that comprehensively manages the facility equipment 10. It comprises a plurality of distributed control devices 2-1 to 2-n which are connected so as to control each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n as a group of a plurality of facility devices 10. Here, the decentralized control device 2-1 is connected, for example, as a device for controlling the air conditioning equipment 7-1, and the air conditioning equipment 7-1 is composed of a compressor, a pump, a fan coil unit, etc. as its equipment device 10. There is.

The central control unit 1 has a keyboard 3 for operation, a screen display
A CRT 4 and a printer 5 for printing out display contents are provided, and the keyboard 3, CRT 4 and printer 5 are distributed and arranged in the owner's room as well as in the central monitoring room.
The central control unit 1 processes and stores management data, manages and distributes system common data, and controls the distributed control units 2-1 to 2-n and system processing. It also has a function as an equipment renewal time evaluation advice device according to the present invention.

On the other hand, the distributed control devices 2-1 to 2-n are the facilities 7-1 to 7
-Performs alarm detection for each n, power recovery / restoration control, various energy saving controls, etc. Further, the equipment device 10 connected to the distributed control devices 2-1 to 2-n has a failure detector for detecting a failure of the equipment.
11 are provided. That is, the failure data for each equipment 10 detected by the failure detector 11 is converted into the distributed control device 2-
It is given to the central control unit 1 via the transmission line 6 via 1 to 2-n. It should be noted that the failure detector 11 does not necessarily have to be provided for each facility device 10, and failure data for each corresponding facility device 10 can be manually controlled centrally by the maintenance personnel via the keyboard 3 arranged in the central monitoring room. It may be provided to the device 1. Further, the provision of the fault data via the fault detector 11 and the provision of the fault data via the keyboard 3 may be used together.

FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing the equipment renewal time evaluation advice operation by the central controller 1.

That is, in the central controller 1, the failure data for each equipment 10 detected by the failure detector 11 is stored in the distributed controller 2
It is input via the transmission line 6 via -1- to 2-n (step 201). The central control unit 1 checks the number of times of failure occurrence for each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n from the inputted failure data (step 202). Then, for each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n, it is judged whether or not the number of occurrences of faults examined is a predetermined number N or more (step 203). The calculation is performed every 7-1 to 7-n (step 204). If it is N or more, the failure interval based on the Weibull distribution is calculated for each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n (step 205). In this embodiment, the mean time between failures MTBF (Mean Time Between Fai
lure) is calculated (estimated). Then, based on the MTBF of each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n, the running cost forecast curve of each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n provided / stored in advance for the facility is corrected (step 20).
6).

Here, the correction of the running cost prediction curve will be described. That is, in the equipment, the relationship between the failure rate and the usage period is represented by a bathtub curve as shown in FIG. Therefore, the MTBF of the equipment is small at the beginning of the installation, and the MTBF increases as it is used.
It will reach a stable period. The MTBF of the equipment gradually decreases as the life approaches. This means that the running cost of the equipment changes in a manner similar to the bathtub curve shown in Fig. 4. Therefore,
When introducing equipment, the running cost of the equipment is
It can be expected to be a transition curve that is almost similar to the bathtub curve shown in FIG. This running cost forecast curve can be created as a unique bathtub curve from the results of reliability tests when the equipment that composes the equipment is shipped, as well as from past failure data of the same equipment delivered to another building. It is possible to create. Since this running cost prediction curve is based on estimation, it is slightly different from the actual running cost transition curve. The point where this running prediction curve is corrected is step 206, and by correcting the running cost prediction curve based on the MTBF calculated in step 204 or step 205, while feeding back the failure data in the actual use environment. ,
The running cost forecast curve for each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n will be modified. For example, in the stable period after introducing the equipment, if the MTBF is obtained as something different from the MTBF for the running cost forecast curve at the time of introduction,
The actual running cost shifts up or down from the initial value expected at the time of introduction, and the running cost forecast curve at the time of initial introduction is corrected by the amount of shift up or down. Also, if the MTBF differs from the MTBF with respect to the running cost forecast curve at the beginning of the installation in the life period after the installation of the equipment, the slope of the running cost curve that actually changes will change, and the change In order to correct the above, the running cost forecast curve at the initial introduction will be corrected.

In this way, the running cost forecast curve for each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n is corrected in step 206, and then in step 207 following this, the inspection cycle of each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n is changed. Check the need for correction. This step 207
The term "inspection cycle" refers to a period T in which the MTBF has a predetermined reliability R. If the period T is corrected according to the change in MTBF, a reasonable periodic inspection without excess or deficiency can be performed. It will be possible. Therefore, in step 207, it is checked whether or not the MTBF of each of the facilities 7-1 to 7-n has changed with respect to the MTBF up to that time, and if it is confirmed that the MTBF has changed, that is confirmed. The inspection cycle is corrected for the equipment (step 208). This inspection cycle is displayed on the CRT 4 or is output to the printer 5 in response to a request from a maintenance worker.

Next, a case where the owner receives the advice of the equipment renewal time evaluation will be described based on the flow from step 209. In other words, when the owner wants to receive advice on equipment renewal evaluation, the owner can use the keyboard 3 in his room.
And gives a command to the central control unit 1 to receive advice. This directive also gives specific information on which equipment to receive advice on renewal evaluation. Based on this command, the central controller 1
In step 210 after step 209, set I = 1 and
The data of the newly introduced equipment I (I = 1) that has been provided and stored in advance as an update plan is read (step 211). This read data is various data such as a running cost forecast curve for the newly introduced facility I and the initial investment amount X. Based on the read data, the central controller 1 calculates the running cost forecast curve of the existing facility and the new cost. The difference between the running cost forecast curve of the installed facility I and the running cost in the stable period of MTBF is calculated as the reduction cost α (step 212). That is, when the equipment I is newly introduced, it is considered that the equipment I has undergone significant technical innovation compared to the time when the existing equipment was introduced, and the energy cost and operation cost of the equipment I during the stable period of MTBF are It is expected that the price will be considerably reduced compared to that of the existing equipment. That is, the operating cost is reduced by α1, the energy cost is reduced by α2, and a value obtained by adding the operating cost reduction α1 and the energy cost reduction α2 is obtained as the reduction cost α. Then, the initial investment amount X is divided by the calculated reduction cost α to calculate the recovery period Y (step 213), and the calculated reduction cost α (including details of the reduction amounts α1 and α2) and the recovery period Y and The running cost forecast curve of the existing facility and the running cost forecast curve of the newly introduced facility I are displayed on the CRT 4 (step 214).

Fig. 1 (a) shows a display example on the CRT4. The running cost forecast curve C1 of the existing equipment after this point is drawn starting from the y axis, and it is newly introduced by overlapping this running cost forecast curve C1. A running cost prediction curve C2 of the equipment I is drawn starting from the y axis. Then, the reduction cost α, the reduction amount α1 of the operating cost, the reduction amount α2 of the energy cost, the recovery period Y and the initial investment amount X are displayed together with the running cost forecast curves C1 and C2. That is, the owner
Reduced cost α, reduced operating cost α1, reduced energy cost α
2, based on the displayed values of the payback period Y and the initial investment amount X, in addition to receiving the advice of necessary information when updating to the newly introduced equipment I at this time, the running cost forecast curve C1 and the running cost forecast curve C2 Due to the crossing relationship, it is possible to visually receive advice when updating to the newly introduced facility I at the present time. That is, the reduction cost α can be visually recognized as the bottom difference d between the running cost prediction curves C1 and C2, and “at what time the running cost reduction effect is compared to when the existing facility is used as it is due to the introduction of the new facility I? You can get detailed advice such as "What happens in?" Moreover, at this time, the running cost prediction curve C1 is corrected in accordance with the actual situation at step 206 shown in FIG. 3, so that highly accurate advice can be received. If the time axis of the running cost prediction curve C2 is shifted by accessing it via the keyboard 3, it becomes possible to easily find the optimum update time as the owner in consideration of various circumstances.

Further, when receiving advice on the update timing evaluation on the display on the CRT 4 in step 214, the running cost forecast curve C1 can be shifted (step 21) assuming that the existing equipment is to be repaired (step 215).
6). In this case, if the existing equipment is refurbished at t1 in Fig. 1 (a), the running cost forecast curve C1 will be deviated as shown by the dotted line in the figure, and the life of the existing equipment whose life is extended will be extended. Running cost forecast curve C1 ′
And the running cost forecast curve C2 of the newly introduced facility I can be visually grasped, and the viewpoint can be changed to receive the advice of the renewal time evaluation.

Further, when it is desired to replace the newly installed equipment I with another one, access is made through the keyboard 3 and YES in "Do you want to change newly installed equipment?" In step 217 so that I = I + 1 in step 218. Then, in step 211, as a renewal plan, the next newly introduced equipment I (I =
The data of 2) will be read out. Then, based on the read data regarding this newly introduced facility I,
The display as the update plan as shown in FIG. 1B is displayed on the CRT 4 in the same manner as the update plan. In this way, by replacing the newly introduced equipment I one after another, it becomes possible to receive a wide range of advice regarding the evaluation of the renewal period.

In the present embodiment, the facilities 7-1 to 7-n installed in the building have been described as receiving the advice of the evaluation of the update timing, but the facilities 7-1 to 7-n in the building are collectively described. May be regarded as one piece of equipment, and may be given advice on evaluation of renewal timing regarding this, or individual equipment 10 may be regarded as equipment and may be given advice on evaluation of renewal timing on this. . That is, the concept of "equipment" in the present invention is extremely broad.

〔The invention's effect〕

As is clear from the above description, according to the equipment renewal time evaluation advice device of the present invention, the running cost forecast curve of the existing facility and the running cost forecast curve of the newly introduced facility are displayed in an overlapping manner, so that these running The owner can receive the advice of the optimum equipment renewal time evaluation very easily by referring to the relative position of the cost forecast curve, and the running cost forecast curve of the existing facility is appropriately corrected according to the actual situation. Therefore, it is possible to accurately give advice on equipment renewal time evaluation.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an overlapping state between a running cost forecast curve of existing equipment and a running cost forecast curve of newly introduced equipment displayed on the CRT shown in FIG. 2, and FIG. 2 is a facility according to the present invention. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a building supervisory control system including an embodiment of an update timing evaluation advice device, FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing facility update timing evaluation advice operation by the central control device shown in FIG. 2, and FIG. It is a figure which shows the bathtub curve showing the relationship between a failure rate and a use period. 1 ... Central control unit, 3 ... keyboard, 4 ... CRT,
7-1 to 7-n ... Equipment, 10 ... Equipment, 11 ... Failure detector, C1 ... Running cost forecast curve of existing equipment,
C2 …… A running cost forecast curve for newly installed equipment.

 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continuation of the front page (72) Inventor Kazuyuki Kamimura 2-12-19 Shibuya, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo Yamatake Honeywell Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Fusaka Chika 2-12-19 Shibuya, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo No. Yamatake Honeywell Co., Ltd. (72) Inventor Yasushi Hasegawa 4-28-1, Nishirokugo, Ota-ku, Tokyo Yamatake Honeywell Co., Ltd. Kamata Factory (56) Reference Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 64-88893 (JP, A) Kai 54-84448 (JP, A) JP 63-154251 (JP, A)

Claims (1)

[Claims] 1. A failure interval estimation means for estimating a failure interval of existing equipment based on provided failure data, a first storage means for storing a running cost forecast curve of the existing equipment, and the first storage means. Correction means for correcting the running cost forecast curve stored by the above based on the estimated failure interval, the second storage means for storing the running cost forecast curve of the newly installed facility, the running cost forecast curve of the existing facility and the new An equipment renewal time evaluation and advice device comprising a display means for displaying the running cost forecast curve of the installed equipment in an overlapping manner.