JP2018169674A - Order control device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an ordering control technique for reducing a delivery delay regardless of a factor without increasing a burden on a user. SOLUTION: The order control device 106 of the present invention uses a order information 120 and master information 121 to generate a production load information 124, and a delivery time when a delivery delay cause information 125 is generated. Deviation cause analysis unit 115, future prediction unit 116 that generates future prediction information 126, change plan creation unit 117 that creates at least one order modification plan that reduces predicted delivery time gaps, and at least created For the simulation unit 118 in which the evaluation information 129 of each of the one change plan is created, and for each of the created plurality of change plans, the information specifying the change plan and the evaluation information 129 of the change plan are associated and selected and accepted. A change plan output unit 119 for generating and outputting the screen 140 is provided. [Selection diagram] Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to an order control technology. In particular, the present invention relates to ordering control technology when placing orders for various parts from various suppliers.

  There is an order control technology that suppresses the delivery delay in parts procurement from suppliers. For example, Patent Document 1 states that “production capacity monitoring for a plurality of suppliers receives at least one actual data of a plurality of suppliers, receives forecast data of a manufacturer, and received actual data. And an order planning technique that is performed by generating a capacity risk assessment based on the received forecast data (summary excerpt).

  Patent Document 2 also states that "means for calculating a cumulative requirement value for each management bucket based on the requirement amount by component of the requirement-by-part development data by component, and the average requirement amount of the management bucket based on the cumulative requirement value. As a virtual requirement for each management bucket, a means for calculating a virtual requirement accumulated value for each management bucket based on the virtual requirement, and a requirement accumulated value and a virtual requirement accumulated value for each management bucket. Compared with, the means for selecting the larger value as the accumulated leveling requirement value for the corresponding management bucket and the difference between the leveling requirement accumulated value management buckets is sequentially calculated as the leveling requirement for each management bucket. And a means for outputting this leveling requirement as introductory information for ordering (summary excerpt). "

JP 2008-47117 A JP 2006-53600 A

  In the technique described in Patent Document 1, it is estimated based on the past results whether a future ordering plan may become a production capacity bottleneck, and a warning alert is output when it is determined that countermeasures are necessary. After that, the orderer must review the ordering plan that avoids exceeding the production capacity, and the burden on the orderer (user) is large.

  In the technique described in Patent Document 2, the future required amount of the company is leveled by the average work amount. When the delivery deadline occurs due to the excess of the production capacity of the supplier, the production capacity excess can be avoided, leading to reduction of the delivery deadline. However, if the cause of the delivery time deviation is other factors such as the order interval or the number of undelivered items, this method cannot reduce the delivery time deviation. Therefore, in all cases, it is not always possible to reduce the delivery time deviation.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object of the present invention is to provide an order control technology that reduces a delivery time deviation regardless of factors without increasing a user's burden.

  The present invention uses the order information including a past order, a current order and a future order to the supplier, master information including manufacturing line information related to the manufacturing line of the supplier, the order information and the master information. The production load is estimated for each production line and production load information is generated, a delivery date deviation that is a deviation between the specified delivery date and the actual arrival date in the past order, and the production load. The due date deviation cause analysis unit for analyzing the relationship and generating the due date deviation cause information, the production load information and the due date deviation cause information are used, and the estimated arrival date of each of the current order and the future order is estimated and the future The difference between the future forecasting unit in which forecast information is generated, the specified current delivery date and the forecasted arrival date for each of the current order and the future order. An order change proposal that reduces the estimated delivery time deviation is created according to a change policy that is determined in advance according to the delivery error cause information, and a change proposal creation unit that creates each of the created at least one change proposal. Estimated arrival date, simulation unit for creating evaluation information of the estimated delivery time deviation of each of the proposed changes, information for specifying the proposed change for each of the created at least one of the proposed changes, and There is provided an order control apparatus including a change plan output unit that generates and outputs a selection reception screen in association with the evaluation information of a change plan.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, order control which suppresses a delivery date shift can be performed regardless of a factor, without increasing a user's burden. Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will be clarified by the following description of embodiments.

It is a figure which shows an example of the functional block of an order control system. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of order information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of master information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of calendar information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of supplier sales information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of workload information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of delivery date difference cause information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of future prediction information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of change plan information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of change plan future prediction information. It is a figure which shows an example of the data structure of evaluation result information. It is a figure which shows the hardware structural example of an order control apparatus. It is a flowchart which shows an example of a change proposal creation assistance process. It is a figure for demonstrating an example of a workload estimation process. It is a figure which shows an example of a selection reception screen.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The scope of the present invention is not limited to the following embodiments.

  In the present embodiment, at least one order plan plan with changed ordering conditions is created so that the parts of the target article are delivered according to the procurement plan, and a selection from the user is accepted. Examples of target articles include electrical products, mechanical products, automobiles, trains, airplanes, transport devices such as conveyors and escalators, generators, control devices, control panels, storage devices, network storage such as NAS (Network Attached Storage), A server, a water treatment apparatus, etc. can be mentioned. Hereinafter, the parts of the target article may be referred to as “items”.

<< First Embodiment >>
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of functional blocks of the order control system 100 according to the present embodiment. The order control system 100 of this embodiment includes a user terminal 107, a database 108, and an order control device 106.

  The user terminal 107 is an information processing apparatus such as a PC (Personal Computer), and is operated by a user (user) of an order control service provided by the order control apparatus 106. The database 108 is, for example, a system such as ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) or the like, or a database in which data based on the system is stored, or a storage device.

  The network 109 connects the user terminal 107, the database 108, and the order control device 106 so that they can communicate with each other. The network 109 is any one of communication networks using a general public line, such as a LAN (Local Area Network), a WAN (Wide Area Network), a VPN (Virtual Private Network), and the Internet, for example.

  The order control apparatus 106 is an information processing apparatus such as a PC or a server computer that makes an order plan in accordance with a user instruction. The order control apparatus 106 includes a control unit 101, a storage unit 102, a communication unit 103, an input unit 104, and an output unit 105.

  The control unit 101 comprehensively controls the entire order control device 106. In addition, order control is performed to create an order plan. The storage unit 102 stores information necessary for order control. The communication unit 103 transmits or receives information to and from other devices connected via the network 109. The input unit 104 receives input of information to the order control device 106 through an input device such as a keyboard or a touch panel. The output unit 105 outputs information to an output device such as a display.

  The control unit 101 of the present embodiment includes an order information reception unit 110, a master information reception unit 111, a calendar information reception unit 112, a supplier sales information reception unit 113, a production load estimation unit 114, and a delivery date deviation cause analysis unit. 115, a future prediction unit 116, a change plan creation unit 117, a simulation unit 118, a change plan output unit 119, and an order information registration unit 132.

  In addition, the storage unit 102 includes order information 120, master information 121, calendar information 122, supplier sales information 123, production load information 124, delivery date shift cause information 125, future prediction information 126, and proposed change information. 127, change plan future prediction information 128, evaluation information 129, and change policy information 131 are stored.

  The order information receiving unit 110 acquires the order information 120 from the database 108 via the communication unit 103 and stores it in the storage unit 102.

  The order information 120 is information related to orders placed by the company from all suppliers. For orders, orders that have already been placed and delivered (received) (hereinafter referred to as past orders), orders that have already been ordered but not delivered (not yet received) (hereinafter referred to as current orders), There are three types of orders (future orders) scheduled to be placed in the future. If there is no need to distinguish between them, it is called ordering.

  An example of the data structure of the order information 120 is shown in FIG. As shown in the figure, the order information 120 includes, for example, an order number 1201, a supplier 1202, an item 1203, a quantity 1204, an order date 1205, a delivery date 1206, and an arrival date 1207.

  The order number 1201 is an identification number that identifies each order, and is uniquely assigned to each order. The supplier 1202 is information for specifying the supplier, and for example, the supplier name is registered. The item 1203 is information indicating the item of the part handled by the orderer (in-house). For example, the part name is registered. The quantity 1204 is an order quantity in the order. The order date 1205, the delivery date 1206, and the arrival date 1207 are the date of order placement, the delivery date specified at the time of order placement, and the date of actual delivery, respectively.

  For example, if the order information 120 is created at the end of November, the order numbers A01 and A02 are past orders, the order numbers A11 and A12 are current orders, and the order numbers A21 and A22 are future orders. is there. Note that the order date 1205 for future orders is unconfirmed and can be changed, and is shown in italics and underlined in FIG. In addition, since the arrival date 1207 of the current order and the delivery date and arrival date of the future order are undecided, they are indicated by “-”.

  In addition, as for each information stored in the storage unit 102, basically the same information is stored in the same name unless otherwise specified. For this reason, in the description of each information, the description of the same name is omitted.

  The master information receiving unit 111 acquires the master information 121 from the database 108 via the communication unit 103 and stores it in the storage unit 102.

  The master information 121 includes information relating to the manufacture of the supplier (handling item name and production line name), information relating to procurement between the supplier and the company (procurement lead time and transportation cost), and information relating to the inventory of the factory of the company ( Safety stock) is registered. In the master information 121, the above information is registered for each item of each production line of the supplier.

  An example of the data structure of the master information 121 is shown in FIG. As shown in the figure, the master information 121 includes, for example, a supplier 1211, a production line 1212, an item 1213, a shipping procurement lead time 1214, an airmail procurement lead time 1215, a shipping transportation cost 1216, and an airmail. Transportation costs 1217 and safety stock 1218 are included.

  Information relating to procurement included in the master information 121 is set upon agreement with the supplier at the start of processing.

  The production line 1212 is information for specifying a production line for producing the item 1213 in the supplier 1211. The sea mail procurement lead time 1214 and the air mail procurement lead time 1215 are the lead times by the respective means of the item 1213, and the sea mail transportation cost 1216 and the air mail transportation cost are the transportation costs (transportation) by the respective means of the item 1213. Cost). The safety stock 1218 is a safety stock amount that should be owned by the company at the present time.

  The calendar information receiving unit 112 acquires the calendar information 122 from the database 108 via the communication unit 103 and stores it in the storage unit 102.

  The calendar information 122 is information representing the number of working days from a predetermined reference date for each date.

  An example of the data structure of the calendar information 122 is shown in FIG. As shown in the figure, the calendar information 122 includes a date 1221, a day of the week 1222, and a number of days 1223. The number of days 1223 is a cumulative value (serial value) of the number of working days (business days) from the reference date (here, October 1, 2010).

  The supplier sales information reception unit 113 acquires the supplier sales information 123 from the database 108 via the communication unit 103 and stores it in the storage unit 102.

  The supplier sales information 123 is information regarding the ratio of the order amount of the company to the sales of each supplier according to the period.

  An example of the data structure of the supplier sales information 123 is shown in FIG. As shown in the figure, the supplier sales information 123 includes a supplier 1231, a period 1232, sales 1233, a company order amount 1234, and a share rate 1235.

  The period 1232 is information indicating a unit (period) for totaling sales, and uses month, quarter, period, year, or the like. The sales amount 1233 is the sales amount of the supplier 1231 that is aggregated in the period specified in the period 1232. The company order amount 1234 is the total order amount from the company to the supplier 1231 in the period specified in the period 1232. The share ratio 1235 is the ratio of the company's order with respect to the supplier 1231 and is calculated by (company order 1234) / (sales amount 1233) × 100.

  The order information receiving unit 110, the master information receiving unit 111, the calendar information receiving unit 112, and the supplier sales information receiving unit 113 may receive the above information via the input unit 104.

  The production load estimation unit 114 estimates the daily production load for each production line of the supplier, and stores it in the storage unit 102 as production load information 124. For estimating the production load, order information 120 and share rate 1235 included in supplier sales information 123 are used.

  The production load estimation unit 114 estimates the production load for each date for each supplier production line. The estimated items as the production load are, for example, workload, work delay, order interval, and number of orders.

  An example of the data structure of the obtained production load information 124 is shown in FIG. The production load information 124 includes a supplier 1241, a production line 1242, a date 1243, and items for estimating the production load: a work load 1244, a work delay 1245, an order interval 1246, an order interval 1246, and an order quantity 1247. And including.

  The work load 1244 is the work load [pieces / day] per day on the date 1243 of the production line 1242 of the supplier 1241. The work delay 1245 is the work delay amount [number / day] at the time of the date 1243. The ordering interval 1246 is a period between the previous ordering and the current ordering on the date 1243 of the parts manufactured on the manufacturing line 1242. The number of orders 1247 is the total number of parts ordered on the date 1243 manufactured by the production line 1242.

  The workload 1244 of the production load information 124, the work delay 1245, and the number of orders 1247 are items that are calculated for each order number 1201 of the order information 120 and are manufactured on the same manufacturing line of the same supplier. It is obtained by summing up every time. The production line and the item are associated with each other in the master information 121.

  The order interval 1246 is obtained by extracting the order numbers 1201 of items manufactured on the same production line of the same supplier in the order information 120 and rearranging them in the order of the order date, and how many days have passed since the previous order date. It is obtained by calculating whether it is. Details of the production load information 124 creation method will be described later.

  The due date deviation cause analysis unit 115 analyzes the relationship between the due date deviation and the production load. The delivery date deviation is the number of days of deviation between the specified delivery date (delivery date 1206) of the past order and the actual arrival date 1207. In the present embodiment, using the order information 120 and the production load information 124, for each item estimated as the production load information 124, a correlation coefficient with a delivery date deviation is calculated, and the delivery date deviation cause information 125 is stored as a storage unit. 102.

  The resulting delivery date shift cause information 125 includes the delivery date shift obtained from the difference between the delivery date 1206 and the arrival date 1207 included in the ordering information 120, the daily workload 1244 obtained from the production load information 124, the work delay 1245, , Information indicating the relationship with items such as the order interval 1246 and the number of orders 1247. A correlation coefficient etc. are mentioned as a parameter | index showing a relationship.

  An example of the data structure of the delivery date shift cause information 125 is shown in FIG. The delivery date shift cause information 125 includes a supplier 1251, a production line 1252, an item 1253, and a delivery date shift correlation coefficient 1254.

  An item 1253 is each item of the production load information 124. Here, as an example, workload, work delay, and order interval are shown. The delivery date deviation correlation coefficient 1254 is a correlation coefficient between the delivery date deviation and the item 1253.

  The delivery date deviation correlation coefficient 1254 is calculated using the order information 120, the master information 121, and the production load information 124. The calculation is performed for each supplier 1211 and production line 1212 using the master information 121.

  For example, when the item 1253 is “work load”, first, for each order number 1201 of the order information 120, a delivery date deviation is calculated as a difference between the delivery date 1206 and the arrival date 1207. Then, the delivery date deviations of orders placed on the same date are totaled, and the total delivery date deviations on that date are calculated. Then, for each date, for example, the value of “work load” of the production load information 124 is plotted on the horizontal axis and the total value of the delivery date deviation calculated on the vertical axis, and the correlation coefficient between them is calculated.

  When the item 1253 is “work delay” and “order interval”, the correlation coefficient is calculated in the same manner as the “work load”.

  The resulting delivery date deviation cause information 125 is information necessary for deriving the cause causing the delivery date deviation. An item having a higher correlation (correlation coefficient closer to 1) is more likely to cause a delay in delivery. In the present embodiment, due to such an analysis by the delivery date shift cause analysis unit 115, the policy of the change plan is determined, and the change plan creation unit 117 can create an appropriate change plan.

  Here, the estimated item as the production load, that is, the item to be analyzed for the cause of the deviation of the delivery date (here, work load, work delay, order interval, etc.) may be registered in advance, It may be configured to receive from the user via 104.

  Instead of the correlation coefficient, another index representing the relationship between the delivery date deviation and the item may be used.

  The future prediction unit 116 estimates the predicted arrival date of the current order and the future order in the order information 120 using the production load information 124 and the cause information 125 of the delivery time difference. The estimation result is stored in the storage unit 102 as future prediction information 126. At this time, the future prediction unit 116 also calculates evaluation items described later.

  The obtained future prediction information 126 is information related to a delivery date shift that predicts the current order and the arrival date of the future order. An example of the data structure of the future prediction information 126 is shown in FIG.

  The future prediction information 126 includes an order number 1261, a supplier 1262, an item 1263, a quantity 1264, an order date 1265, a delivery date 1266, and a predicted arrival date 1267. The order number 1261, the supplier 1262, the item 1263, the quantity 1264, and the order date 1265 respectively correspond to items of the same name in the order information 120.

  First, the future prediction unit 116 sets the delivery date of the future order in the order information 120 using the procurement lead times 1214 and 1215 in the master information 121. Then, in consideration of the set delivery date, the production load (work load, work delay, order interval, number of orders) of each supplier production line is estimated again by the same method as the production load estimation unit 114. Thereafter, from the order information 120, the master information 121, the reestimated production load information 124, and the cause-of-delivery-cause information 125, the current order of the order-information 120 and the delivery delay (arrival date) of the future order are estimated.

  Here, a multiple regression analysis is performed using the delivery date deviation correlation coefficient 1254 of each item (work load 1244, work delay 1245, order interval 1246, order quantity 1247) of the production load information 124, and the delivery date deviation is determined. The estimated value is calculated and the arrival date is estimated.

  An order with a predicted arrival date 1267 later than the due date 1266 is an order that causes a delay in the due date.

  The change plan creation unit 117 creates at least one change plan for the future order using the delivery date shift cause information 125 and the change policy information 131. The change proposal to be created differs from the original order by at least one order item such as quantity and order date. The created at least one change plan is stored in the storage unit 102 as change plan information 127. In addition, it is good also as a change plan which changed the delivery date by changing a transportation means or safety stock.

  The change plan creation unit 117 creates a change plan that eliminates / avoids (reduces) the cause of the delivery time deviation. As the change policy information 131 used for the creation, a change policy proposal is registered for each item 1253 of the cause-of-delivery cause information 125.

  For example, when the correlation coefficient of the order interval is high in the cause-of-delivery cause information 125, a process of narrowing the order interval so as to reduce the risk of occurrence of the delivery delay is registered as the change policy. In addition, when the correlation coefficient of the high workload is high, a process for transferring an order when the workload is high to a timing when the workload is low is registered. At this time, the change step number (step size) is also registered for each change item. The step size may be configured to accept designation from the user.

  For example, the change proposal creation unit 117 increases the value of the delivery time deviation as the workload increases (that is, when the delivery date deviation correlation coefficient 1254 of the item 1253 is “work load” is close to “1.00”), In addition, when the value of the delivery date deviation becomes larger as the order interval becomes wider (that is, when the delivery date deviation correlation coefficient 1254 of the item 1253 is “order interval” is close to “1.00”), a large number of orders are placed at a time. Instead of doing it, it is possible to suppress the delivery time deviation by ordering a small amount regularly. Further, when the relationship between the size of the ordering interval and the size of the delivery date deviation is low (that is, when the delivery date deviation correlation coefficient 1254 of the item 1253 is “ordering interval” is close to “0.00”), the ordering interval is set. There is no need to be conscious. The change policy information 131 stores a change policy corresponding to such a factor.

  The change plan creation unit 117 changes the original ordering plan according to the change policy plan in the order of items with the highest correlation coefficient specified by the delivery date shift cause analysis unit 115, and creates a change plan.

  Note that the change width may be limited to a specific range when creating the order plan change proposal. That is, the maximum value and the minimum value of the change may be set. In this case, the change plan creation unit 117 receives the specification of the specific range via the input unit 104. In this case, the change plan creation unit 117 may prompt the input of a candidate range of change items for each part included in the item 1203 of the ordering information 120, or candidate change items common to each part. It may prompt the input of a range.

  In the proposed change, the quantity is different means that the order is paid in installments, and the order is placed so as to satisfy the initial order quantity in a plurality of times.

  The change plan information 127 obtained is information obtained by changing the quantity and date of an order scheduled in the future. An example of the data structure of the change plan information 127 is shown in FIG. The change plan information 127 includes a change plan number 1271, an order number 1272, a supplier 1273, an item 1274, a quantity 1275, and an order date 1276.

  The change plan number 1271 is an identification number that identifies each change plan. In the present embodiment, one change plan number 1271 is assigned to a set of all future order change plans. The quantity 1275 and the order date 1276 are the order quantity and the order date of the proposed change.

  In the example of FIG. 9, the proposed change number 1271 is “1”, and the order date 1276 for the order number 1272 is A21 is changed from “17/1/10” to “17/1/17”. It has been done. Further, the change plan with the change plan number 1271 of “2” is the order with the order number 1272 of A21, the order date 1276 of “'17 / 10” with the quantity 1275 of “50”, and the order date 1276 of The “'17 / 1/17” quantity 1275 is changed to be distributed in the order of “50”.

  The simulation unit 118 simulates a delivery date deviation (predicted delivery date deviation) for each change proposal of the future order created as the change proposal information 127 and the current order. The simulation method is the same as the delivery date deviation calculation method by the future prediction unit 116. That is, the estimated arrival date is estimated for each proposal for changing the current order and the future order, and the evaluation information is created. In addition, in estimating the estimated arrival date, the production load information of each change plan is also estimated.

  The simulation result is stored in the storage unit 102 as change plan future prediction information 128 and evaluation information 129. The simulation is executed using the production load information 124, the delivery date shift cause information 125, and the change plan information 127.

  The change plan future prediction information 128 obtained is information regarding a delivery date shift that predicts the delivery date and arrival date of the future order of each order plan change guide.

  An example of the data structure of the change plan future prediction information 128 is shown in FIG. The change plan future prediction information 128 includes a change plan number 1281, an order number 1282, a supplier 1283, an item 1284, a quantity 1285, an order date 1286, a delivery date 1287, and a predicted arrival date 1288.

  The change plan number 1281 is identification information that identifies an order plan change plan for which a future prediction has been made, and corresponds to the change plan number 1271 of the change plan information 127. The order number 1282, the supplier 1283, the item 1284, and the order date 1286 correspond to items of the same name in the change plan information 127, respectively. The delivery date 1287 and the predicted arrival date 1288 store values predicted by simulation for future orders. On the other hand, for the current order, a delivery date 1266 and a predicted arrival date 1267 of the future prediction information 126 are stored. In the delivery date 1287 and the estimated arrival date 1288, the italic and underlined date is information obtained by simulation.

  The evaluation information 129 is information including the result of each evaluation index for each order plan change proposal. An example of the data structure of the evaluation information 129 is shown in FIG. The evaluation information 129 includes a change proposal number 1291, a supplier 1292, an item 1293, a delivery date deviation occurrence count 1294, a delivery date deviation average number of days 1295, and a transportation cost 1296.

  The delivery date deviation occurrence count 1294 is the number of orders in which a delivery date deviation (predicted delivery date deviation) occurs in the change plan specified by the change plan number 1291. The delivery date deviation average number of days 1295 is the average number of days of delivery date deviation (predicted delivery date deviation) that occurs. The transportation cost 1296 is the transportation cost in the proposed change.

  By indicating the delivery time deviation as the number of occurrences 1294 and the average number of days 1295, it becomes easier to understand intuitively. In addition, transportation costs are also affected by partial payments and changing transportation means. By including the transportation cost 1296 in the evaluation information 129, more useful evaluation information can be provided.

  The change plan output unit 119 generates a selection acceptance screen that can accept selection of the created change plan by the user. On each selection proposal screen, evaluation information 129 for the change proposal and production load information are displayed together with information for identifying the change proposal for each created change proposal. The selection acceptance screen may further display evaluation information and production load information of the current ordering plan (ordering information 120). In addition, the ordering plan and the change plan itself may be displayed together.

  The change plan output unit 119 of the present embodiment may visualize and display each of the information to be displayed with a graph or the like.

  The generated selection reception screen is transmitted to the user terminal 107 via the communication unit 103 and displayed on the display unit of the user terminal 107. The selection acceptance screen may be displayed on the output device of the order control device 106 via the output unit 105.

  The order information registration unit 132 receives a user's selection from at least one change proposal via the selection reception screen. Then, the accepted change proposal is set as the latest ordering information, for example, in the database 108 or the like.

  In this embodiment, the user terminal 107 and the database 108 are provided outside the order control apparatus 106, but the configuration of the order control system 100 is not limited to this. For example, information stored in the storage unit 102 may be stored in the database 108, and the control unit 101 may acquire the information from the database 108 as necessary. The apparatus configuration of the order control system 100 can be changed as appropriate as long as the object of the present embodiment is not impaired.

  FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration example of the order control apparatus 106. The order control device 106 includes an input device 161, an output device 162, an external storage device 163, an arithmetic device 164, a main storage device 165, and a communication device 166, and each component is connected by a bus 167. The

  The input device 161 is a device in which the input unit 104 receives an input operation from a user, and is, for example, a touch panel, a keyboard, a mouse, a microphone, or the like. The output device 162 is a device from which the output unit 105 outputs data stored in the order control device 106, and is a display device such as an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), a printer, or the like.

  The external storage device 163 is a writable and readable storage medium such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive). The main storage device 165 is a storage device such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) or a flash memory, and the RAM functions as a storage area from which programs and data are temporarily read. The arithmetic device 164 is a central arithmetic device, and executes processing according to a program recorded in the main storage device 165 or the external storage device 163.

  The communication device 166 is a device for the communication unit 103 to connect the order control device 106 to the network 109. The communication device 166 is a communication device such as a NIC (Network Interface Card).

  Each processing unit constituting the control unit 101 is realized by the arithmetic device 164 expanding and executing a program stored in the external storage device 163 or the main storage device 165 in the RAM. The storage unit 102 is constructed in the external storage device 163 or the main storage device 165. The storage unit 102 may be built on a storage device on the network 109 or may be built on the database 108 as described above.

  Note that the order control apparatus 106 may be executed by a single piece of hardware or a plurality of pieces of hardware. In addition, each function of the order control device 106 may be realized by one program or a plurality of programs. Note that the user terminal 107 and the database 108 also have the same hardware configuration as that of the order control apparatus 106, and thus description thereof is omitted. Note that the database 108 may be a NAS.

  Next, a description will be given of the flow of change plan creation support processing by the order control apparatus 106 of the present embodiment that creates and presents at least one change plan to the user. FIG. 13 is a flowchart of an example of the change plan creation support process. This process is started, for example, when the order control apparatus 106 receives an instruction to start the change plan creation support process output from the user terminal 107. Note that this processing may be performed periodically, for example, in the order control apparatus 106.

  First, the order information receiving unit 110, the master information receiving unit 111, the calendar information receiving unit 112, and the supplier sales information receiving unit 113 each read input information (step S1). The input information is the latest order information 120, the latest master information 121, the latest calendar information 122, and the latest supplier sales information 123 at the time of this processing.

  Next, the control unit 101 repeatedly executes the processing from step S3 to step S10 for each manufacturing line of the supplier (steps S2 to S11). The production line information of the supplier is acquired from the supplier 1211 and the production line 1212 of the master information 121.

  First, the production load estimation unit 114 estimates the production load for each production line of the supplier from the order information 120, the master information 121, the calendar information 122, and the supplier sales information 123 (Step S3). Information 124 is obtained. Here, since each information to be used is the latest information at the time of this processing, the current production load situation is estimated.

  Next, the due date deviation cause analysis unit 115 analyzes the relationship between the production load and the due date deviation from the order information 120, the master information 121, and the production load information 124 (step S4), and the due date deviation cause information 125. Create Thereby, the magnitude | size of the influence on the delivery date shift of the item which becomes each cause is grasped | ascertained.

  Next, the future prediction unit 116 estimates the production load for each supplier production line including the future order from the order information 120, the master information 121, the calendar information 122, and the supplier sales information 123 (step S5). ).

  Further, the future prediction unit 116 estimates the delivery delay (arrival date) of the current order and the future purchase order from the order information 120, the master information 121, the production load information 124, and the delivery time deviation cause information 125 (Step S6). ).

  Then, the future prediction unit 116 determines whether or not a delivery date deviation (delivery date delay) occurs (step S7). When the future prediction unit 116 determines that the delivery date delay does not occur (step S7; NO), the future prediction unit 116 advances the processing to step S11.

  On the other hand, when the future prediction unit 116 determines that a delivery delay will occur (step S7; YES), the change plan creation unit 117 creates the change plan information 127 by the above method (step S8). Thus, at least one order plan change plan in which each item is changed is created for each order plan.

  Next, the simulation unit 118 performs an order plan change simulation using the order information 120, the master information 121, the calendar information 122, the supplier sales information 123, and the change plan information 127 (step S9).

  Here, the production load information 124 of the change plan in the change plan number 1271 is estimated. By this simulation, the arrival prediction date 1288 of the change plan future prediction information 128 is estimated using the delivery date deviation cause information 125. The delivery date is set using the procurement lead time 1214 of the master information 121 as in step S5.

  Then, the simulation unit 118 determines whether or not a delivery time difference occurs, calculates transportation costs, and the like, and creates evaluation information 129 (step S10). At this time, using the demand plan information and inventory information of parts, whether or not the demand plan could be satisfied due to the occurrence of delivery delay (demand fulfillment rate), how much safety stock was used, or the average stock quantity It may be added to the evaluation result.

  The processes from S3 to S10 are repeated for the supplier's production line (step S11).

  After the repetitive processing of step S3 to step S10, the change plan output unit 119 generates and outputs screen information of the selection reception screen (step S12). Here, the change plan output unit 119 presents the change plan and the evaluation of each change plan to the user by generating screen information of the selection reception screen and transmitting it to the user terminal 107. Then, the control unit 101 ends the change plan creation support process.

  Next, details of the production load estimation process performed by the production load estimation unit 114 in step S3 will be described. Here, the production load estimation unit 114 generates production load information 124.

  The production load estimation unit 114 creates information for each item for each order number 1201 of the order information 120 regarding all parts of the production line of the supplier to be created. Here, the ordering information 120 will be described by taking an example where the order number 1201 is A01.

  The production load estimation unit 114 aggregates each piece of information created for each order number when estimating the production load for each supplier production line, and further multiplies the share rate 1235 of the supplier sales information 123 to calculate the total quantity. Make corrections. By using the share rate, the production load can be estimated with higher accuracy.

  FIG. 14A is a diagram illustrating an example of the structure of each data obtained when the production load estimation unit 114 estimates the production load of a specific production line of a specific supplier, and FIG. It is the graph (load graph) which shows the transition by the date of the information.

  First, the production load estimation unit 114 creates a work load (plan) 1141. The work load (planned) 1141 is data representing the work load when the work is completed according to the delivery date. This is created using order information 120, master information 121, and calendar information 122.

  As shown in FIG. 14A, the workload (planned) 1141 includes a supplier 11411, a production line 11412, an item 11413, an order number 11414, and a workload 11415 on each date. Here, the work load 11415 on each date is the average number of items manufactured per day when the parts of the item 1203 are manufactured with the number specified by the quantity 1204 and the number of days from the order date 1205 to the delivery date 1206.

  The production load estimation unit 114 calculates the work load 11415 for each order number of the order information 120 for all parts of the production line of the supplier to be created and stores it in the work load (planned) 1141.

  FIG. 14A shows an example in which the order number 1201 of the order information 120 is A01. In this case, the order date 1205 is “'16 / 4/4” and the delivery date 1206 is “′16 / 6/30”. From the calendar information 122, the order date is converted to “1477” and the delivery date is converted to “1535”. Therefore, the number of days from the order date to the delivery date is 59 days.

  Here, since the quantity 1204 is “100” and this is manufactured in 59 days, the work load 11415 is 100/59 days = 1.69 [pieces / day]. That is, the value of the work load 11415 from '16 / 4/4 to '16 / 6/30 is 1.69.

  The production load estimation unit 114 calculates the work load 11415 for each date of all parts manufactured in the line 1 of Company X in the order information 120 and stores the work load 11415 in the work load (planned) 1141.

  Next, the production load estimation unit 114 creates a work load (result) 1141. The work load (actual result) 1142 is information representing the work load based on the arrival date. This is created from order information 120, master information 121, and calendar information 122.

  The work load (actual result) 1142 includes a supplier 11421, a production line 11422, an item 11423, an order number 11424, and a work load 11425 on each date. The workload 11425 on each date is an average production quantity per day when the parts of the item 1203 are produced with the number specified by the quantity 1204 and the number of days from the order date 1205 to the arrival date 1207.

  The production load estimation unit 114 calculates the work load 11425 for each order number 1201 of the order information 120 and stores it in the work load (planned) 1141 regarding the past ordering of all the parts of the production line of the supplier to be created.

  In the example in which the order number 1201 in FIG. 14A is A01, since the arrival date 1207 is “'16 / 7/29”, the arrival date can be converted to “1555” from the calendar information 122, and the arrival date from the order date. The number of days until is 79 days.

  Since the quantity 1204 is “100”, the workload (actual result) is 100/79 days = 1.27 [pieces / day]. That is, the value of the work load 11425 from '16 / 4/4 to '16 / 7/29 is 1.27.

  FIG. 14B shows a graph 11406 of the transition between the work load (planned) 1141 and the work load (actual result) 1142. In a graph 11406, the horizontal axis represents the date [day], and the vertical axis represents the workload [number / day] of each date.

  Next, the production load estimation unit 114 creates a work delay 1143. The work delay 1143 represents the cumulative amount of work delay, and is created from the work load (planned) 1141 and the work load (actual result) 1142.

  The work delay 1143 includes a supplier 11431, a production line 11432, an item 11433, an order number 11434, and a work delay accumulated amount 11435 for each date. The work delay accumulated amount 11435 on each date is a cumulative value of a difference (work load 11415-work load 11425) between the work load 11415 and the work load 11425 on each date.

  In the example in which the order number 1201 in FIG. 14A is A01, the difference is 1.69-1.27 = 0.42 [pieces / day]. Therefore, cumulative values of 0.42 [pieces / day] are stored from '16 / 4/4 to '16 / 6/30, respectively. This indicates that the work is delayed by 0.42 [pieces / day] from the schedule. On the other hand, the difference between ‘16 / 7/1 to ‘16 / 7/29 ’is −1.27 [pieces / day]. Accordingly, during this period, a cumulative value of −1.27 [pieces / day] is stored. This indicates that the delay is eliminated by 1.27 [pieces / day].

  A graph 11407 of the transition of the work delay 1143 is shown in FIG. In a graph 11407, the horizontal axis represents the date [day], and the vertical axis represents the work delay [number / day] of each date.

  Next, the production load estimation unit 114 creates an order quantity 1144. The order quantity 1144 represents the order quantity of each order of the production line of the supplier to be created, and is created from the order information 120 and the master information 121.

  The order quantity 1144 includes a supplier 11441, a production line 11442, an item 11443, an order number 11444, and an order quantity 11445 by order date.

  In the example in which the order number 1201 in FIG. 14A is A01, since the order date 1205 is “'16 / 4/4” and the quantity 1204 is “100”, the order number 11445 of “16/4/4” is “ 100 "is stored.

  Next, the production load estimation unit 114 creates a delivery date delay 1145. The delivery date delay 1145 represents the delivery date delay days of each order, and is created from the order information 120 and the master information 121.

  The delivery date delay 1145 includes a supplier 11451, a production line 11452, an item 11453, an order number 11454, and a delivery date delay number 11455 by order date. The delivery date delay days 11455 by order date is the difference in days between the delivery date and the arrival date in each order.

  In the example in which the order number 1201 in FIG. 14A is A01, the delivery date 1206 is “'16 / 6/30”, and the arrival date 1207 is “′16 / 7/29”. The difference between the two days is “20” when the calendar information 122 is used. Therefore, “20” is stored in the delivery delay days 11455 of “16/4/4”.

  FIG. 14B shows a graph 11408 of the transition between the order quantity 1144 and the delivery date delay 1145. In the graph 11408, the horizontal axis represents the date [day], and the vertical axis represents the order quantity [number] and the delivery date delay [day] for each date.

  The production load estimation unit 114 repeats the calculation of the workload (actual result), the work delay, and the number of orders for every part of the production line of the production target supplier for every order number 1201 to create the production load information 124 and add them up. To do. At this time, each graph shown in FIG. 14B is also created by adding up all the parts of the production line of the supplier to be created.

  Note that the workload (planned) 1141 and the workload (result) 1142 may be created first. Further, the order of creation of the work delay 1143, the order quantity 1144, and the delivery delay 1145 does not matter.

  Next, the selection reception screen generated by the change plan output unit 119 will be described.

FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating an example of the selection reception screen 140. The selection reception screen 140 includes a supplier selection button 1401, a production line selection tab 1402, a change plan selection button 1403, a current value display area 1404, and a change value display area 1405. The current value display area 1404 and the changed value display area 1405 each include an evaluation information display area 1407, a production load display area 1406, and a determination button 1408.
including.

  The supplier selection button 1401 is a button for receiving selection of a supplier to be displayed, and is set so that all suppliers 1211 included in the master information 121 can be selected.

  The production line selection tab 1402 is a tab for receiving selection of a production line to be displayed. Here, all the production lines 1212 related to the ordering of the supplier 1211 selected by the supplier selection button 1401 are set to be selectable.

  The change plan selection button 1403 is a button for receiving selection of a change plan to be displayed. All the created change proposals related to the selected production line 1212 are set to be selectable. Here, for example, the change plan number 1291 of the created change plan is displayed as the change plan selection button 1403.

  In the evaluation information display area 1407 of the current value display area 1404, the evaluation information of the current ordering plan is displayed. That is, evaluation information (here, the number of occurrences of delivery date deviation, the average number of days of delivery date deviation, and transportation costs) calculated based on the future prediction information 126 is displayed.

  In the production load display area 1406 of the current value display area 1404, the production load according to the current ordering plan is displayed. Here, the production load information 124 calculated based on the order information 120 is displayed.

  Note that the change plan output unit 119 visualizes and displays the production load information using a graph or the like, as described with reference to FIG. Specifically, a workload graph 14061, a work delay graph 14062, an order quantity graph 14063, and a delivery delay graph 14064 are displayed. The workload graph 14061 displays graphs of a workload (planned) 1141 and a workload (actual) 1142.

  Evaluation information 129 of the selected change plan is displayed in the evaluation information display area 1407 of the change value display area 1405, and the production load of the selected change plan is displayed in the production load display area 1406 of the change value display area 1405. Is displayed. The displayed item is the same as the area having the same name in the current value display area 1404.

  By displaying the production load together with the evaluation information, it becomes easier for the user to grasp the characteristics of each change plan. Furthermore, it becomes easier to intuitively grasp the production load in a graph.

  The decision button 1408 accepts the user's intention to select a change plan. When the order information registration unit 132 accepts pressing of the enter button 1408, it accepts that the change plan displayed in the change value display area 1405 at that time is selected.

  In addition, the graph which shows a supplier workload condition is not restricted to the aspect shown in FIG.

  As described above, according to the present embodiment, the order information 120 including past orders to the supplier, the current order and the future order, the master information 121 including the production line information regarding the supplier's production line, the order information 120, The production load estimation unit 114 that estimates the production load for each production line of the supplier using the master information 121 and generates the production load information 124, and the delivery date that is a difference between the designated delivery date and the actual arrival date in the past ordering The delivery schedule cause analysis unit 115 that analyzes the relationship between the deviation and the production load and generates the delivery date deviation cause information 125, the production load information 124, and the delivery date deviation cause information 125 are used to schedule the arrival of each of the current order and the future order. The future prediction unit 116 that estimates the day and generates the future prediction information 126, the current order and the future order are determined in advance. A change plan creation unit 117 that creates at least one order change plan that reduces a predicted delivery date deviation, which is a difference between the designated delivery date and the predicted arrival date, according to the change policy information 131 determined in advance according to the delivery date cause information 125; , Estimating the arrival forecast date of each of the created at least one change plan, and creating the evaluation information of the estimated delivery date deviation of each of the change plans, and the change for each of the created at least one change plan A change proposal output unit 119 that generates and outputs a selection reception screen 140 by associating information for specifying a plan and evaluation information of the change plan.

  Thus, according to the present embodiment, the current production load of the supplier is estimated using past ordering record information and external information. Then, the relationship between the supplier's production load and the delivery time gap is analyzed. In addition, the future production load of the supplier is estimated in consideration of the future order, and the delivery date deviation of the future order is predicted accordingly. Then, using the analysis results, create a change plan (order plan that changes the order timing, order quantity, transportation means, safety stock, etc.) to reduce the delivery deadline, and evaluate the evaluation information of each change plan into the simulation Create. Then, the evaluation information for each proposed change is presented to the user. In addition, at least one change proposal is automatically created according to a change policy that is determined in advance so as to reduce the cause of the delivery delay using the analysis result.

  The user who is presented with the evaluation information of these change plans can compare and evaluate at least one index according to the situation at each time, and can adopt the best proposal for the situation.

  That is, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to support the creation of an ordering plan that reduces a delivery time deviation regardless of factors without increasing the burden on the user.

  Furthermore, according to this embodiment, selection from the user with respect to the proposed change proposal is received and used as new ordering information.

  Therefore, according to the present embodiment, even if the person in charge who has little knowledge and experience considers the change plan of the ordering plan, it is only necessary to select from the change proposals presented as candidates from the viewpoint of risk and cost. It is possible to set an appropriate order plan change plan.

  In the manufacturing industry, decision making (when and how much to order) to suppliers in parts procurement is performed by drafting a part ordering plan based on demand information and procurement lead time. For example, maintenance parts for construction machines are required to have a high delivery time compliance rate, but have a long procurement lead time and a large variation. For this reason, it is not delivered as planned, and inventory increases due to early delivery and missing parts due to delivery delays are problematic.

  However, according to the present embodiment, even in such a situation, it is possible to devise an ordering plan that can suppress the occurrence of a delivery deadline without increasing the burden on the user, effectively reducing inventory and missing parts. Can be suppressed.

  In particular, in the case of a construction machine, the number of parts is large, the conditions to be considered are various, and the conditions that are important for each user are greatly different. For this reason, when changing the procurement plan of parts, it is difficult to create one best change plan. It is also difficult to create at least one change proposal candidate and select the best change proposal from among them. However, according to the present embodiment, the cause of the delivery delay is analyzed, at least one change plan is created according to a predetermined rule according to the analysis result, each evaluation is performed, and the evaluation information is presented to the user To do. For this reason, even in such a situation, a person in charge with little knowledge and experience can easily select a change plan optimal for the environment.

  For example, in the case of construction machines, the necessity of parts is greatly affected by the operating status (operating time, operating environment, etc.) of the machine. By setting evaluation items that can take these into consideration in the evaluation information, the user can easily select a change plan that takes into consideration transportation costs, such as operating hours and operating environments. Therefore, even in special cases such as parts procurement for construction machinery, an optimal procurement plan can be formulated efficiently.

  In addition, this invention is not limited to embodiment mentioned above, Various modifications are included. The above-described embodiment is a description of the present invention in an easy-to-understand manner, and is not necessarily limited to one having all the configurations described.

100: Order control system 101: Control unit 102: Storage unit 103: Communication unit 104: Input unit 105: Output unit 106: Order control device 107: User terminal 108: Database 109: Network
110: Order information reception unit, 111: Master information reception unit, 112: Calendar information reception unit, 113: Supplier sales information reception unit, 114: Production load estimation unit, 115: Delivery time difference cause analysis unit, 116: Future prediction unit, 117: Change plan creation unit, 118: Simulation unit, 119: Change plan output unit, 120: Order information, 121: Master information, 122: Calendar information, 123: Supplier sales information, 124: Production load information, 125: Delivery time deviation Cause information, 126: Future prediction information, 127: Change plan information, 128: Change plan future prediction information, 129: Evaluation information, 131: Change policy information, 132: Order information registration unit, 140: Selection acceptance screen,
161: input device, 162: output device, 163: external storage device, 164: arithmetic device, 165: main storage device, 166: communication device, 167: bus,
1141: Work load (planned), 142: Work load (actual), 1143: Work delay, 1144: Number of orders, 1145: Delay in delivery date,
1201: Order number 1202: Supplier 1203: Item 1204: Quantity 1205: Order date 1206: Delivery date 1207: Arrival date
1211: Supplier, 1212: Production line, 1213: Item, 1214: Ship procurement lead time, 1215: Air flight procurement lead time, 1216: Ship transport cost, 1217: Air transport cost, 1218: Safety stock,
1221: Date, 1222: Day of the week, 1223: Number of days,
1231: Supplier, 1232: Period, 1233: Sales, 1234: In-house order, 1235: Share rate,
1241: supplier, 1242: production line, 1243: date, 1244: workload, 1245: work delay, 1246: order interval, 1247: number of orders
1251: Supplier, 1252: Production line, 1253: Item, 1254: Correlation coefficient for delivery error,
1261: Order number, 1262: Supplier, 1263: Item, 1264: Quantity, 1265: Order date, 1266: Delivery date, 1267: Expected arrival date,
1271: Proposed change number, 1272: Order number, 1273: Supplier, 1274: Item, 1275: Quantity, 1276: Order date
1281: Change proposal number, 1282: Order number, 1283: Supplier, 1284: Item, 1285: Quantity, 1286: Order date, 1287: Delivery date, 1288: Expected arrival date,
1291: Proposed change number, 1292: Supplier, 1293: Item, 1294: Number of occurrences of delivery date deviation, 1295: Average days of delivery date deviation, 1296: Transportation cost,
1401: Supplier selection button, 1402: Production line selection tab, 1403: Change plan selection button, 1404: Current value display area, 1405: Change value display area, 1406: Production load display area, 1407: Evaluation information display area, 1408: Decision button, 11406: Workload graph, 11407: Work delay graph, 11408: Order quantity and delivery delay graph,
11411: Supplier, 11412: Production Line, 11413: Item, 11414: Order Number, 11415: Workload, 11421: Supplier, 11422: Production Line, 11423: Item, 11424: Order Number, 11425: Workload, 11431: Supplier, 11432: Production line, 11433: Item, 11434: Order number, 11435: Cumulative work delay, 11441: Supplier, 11442: Production line, 11443: Item, 11444: Order number, 11445: Number of orders, 11451: Supplier, 11452: Production line, 11453: item, 11454: order number, 11455: days for delivery delay,
14061: Workload graph, 14062: Work delay graph, 14063: Order quantity graph, 14064: Delivery delay graph

Claims (7)

Ordering information, including past orders to suppliers, current orders and future orders;
Master information including production line information regarding the supplier's production line;
Using the order information and the master information, a production load for each of the manufacturing lines of the supplier is estimated, and a production load estimation unit that generates production load information;
A delivery date deviation analysis unit that analyzes a relationship between a delivery date deviation that is a deviation between a designated delivery date and an actual arrival date in the past order and a production load, and generates a delivery date deviation cause information;
A future prediction unit that uses the production load information and the cause of deviation in delivery date, estimates a predicted arrival date of each of the current order and the future order, and generates future prediction information;
For each of the current order and the future order, a proposed order change that reduces the estimated delivery date deviation that is the difference between the predetermined delivery date and the predicted arrival date is determined in accordance with a change policy that is determined in advance according to the delivery date cause information. At least one change proposal creation section,
A simulation unit in which the estimated arrival date of each of the created at least one of the proposed changes is estimated, and evaluation information for the estimated delivery date deviation of each of the proposed changes is created;
A change proposal output unit that generates and outputs a selection acceptance screen for each of the created at least one change proposal, by associating information for identifying the change proposal and the evaluation information of the change proposal. An order control device characterized by. The order control device according to claim 1,
By receiving designation of information for specifying the change plan via the selection reception screen, the user's selection is received from at least one of the change plans, and the received change plan is the latest ordering information. An order control apparatus further comprising an order information registration unit. The order control device according to claim 1,
The delivery date deviation evaluation information includes the number of occurrences of the delivery deadline and the average number of days. The order control device according to claim 1,
The master information further includes a transportation cost of each item manufactured in the manufacturing line,
In the simulation unit, the master information is used, and the transportation cost of each of the change plans is calculated and added to the evaluation information. The order control device according to claim 1,
The company further includes order ratio information of the company with respect to the supplier calculated from the ordering record of the company in a predetermined period in the past and the sales of the supplier in the predetermined period.
The production load estimation unit uses the order ratio information when estimating the production load. The order control device according to claim 1,
In the simulation unit, the production load information for each of the change plans is created and the predicted arrival date is calculated,
The order control apparatus, wherein the production load information of each proposed change is further displayed on the selection reception screen. The order control device according to claim 6,
The change plan output unit displays the production load information in a graph on the selection reception screen.