JP2018067155A - Power generation plan formulation device, power generation plan formulation method, and power generation plan formulation program - Google Patents

Abstract

A power generation plan formulation device capable of formulating a power generation plan in consideration of the performance and group of power generation facilities is provided. According to one embodiment, the power generation plan formulation device predicts the performance based on data on a natural environment when processing information on the performance or group of the power generation facility, or As a group definition, a power generation information processing unit that registers data on the power generation equipment belonging to the group and data on constraints on the group, and a power generation plan for the power generation equipment based on the performance or the definition A power generation plan creation unit for creating The power generation plan creation unit creates a first power generation plan and a third power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the first and second data about the natural environment, respectively, or 1. Select at least one of load distributions for the first and second groups to which the power generation facility having the second performance belongs, and create the power generation plan based on the selected one. [Selection] Figure 1

Description

  Embodiments described herein relate generally to a power generation plan formulation device, a power generation plan formulation method, and a power generation plan formulation program.

  Some power generation units have different performance depending on the natural environment such as the weather and others.

  For example, power generation units of steam power generation and nuclear power generation can perform stable power generation without being affected by the natural environment so much, and the maximum output hardly changes depending on the natural environment.

  On the other hand, in a combined cycle power generation unit that combines a gas turbine and a steam turbine, the maximum output varies depending on the temperature. Specifically, as the temperature rises, the density of the air decreases, and the amount of oxygen taken into the gas turbine combustor decreases. The maximum output of the generator is reduced. Generally, when the temperature rises from 5 ° C. to 40 ° C., the maximum output of the generator for the gas turbine is reduced by about 20 to 30%. The steam turbine is equipped with a condenser to return the steam to the water, but the efficiency of the steam turbine changes depending on the temperature of the seawater because the performance of the condenser changes depending on the temperature of the seawater for cooling the steam. To do.

  Moreover, in the power generation unit of solar power generation, the amount of generated power changes as the incident energy of sunlight changes according to the sky cloud concentration and solar radiation intensity. Furthermore, in the power generation unit of wind power generation, the amount of generated power varies depending on the strength of the wind. The stronger the wind power, the greater the amount of power generated by wind power generation. However, if the wind power exceeds the specified value, power generation is stopped for safety. Moreover, in the hydroelectric power generation unit, the amount of generated power varies depending on the amount of water in the river.

  Thus, depending on the type of power generation, the performance (power generation capacity) of the power generation unit varies depending on the natural environment such as the weather.

  Further, there are various power generation units from one having a large capacity power generation capability to one having only a small capacity power generation capability. With respect to a power generation unit having a small capacity, a plurality of power generation units may be collected and controlled as a group of power generation units. Controlling a plurality of power generation units as a group in this way is called GLC (Group Load Control). Depending on the scale of the power generation unit, the power generation amount, power generation command, and power generation plan may be determined in units of groups.

  For example, for power generation units that use seawater to cool condensers, the total amount of warm seawater discharged between the power plant and the fisherman is taken into account, taking into account the impact of warm seawater discharged into the sea on the fishing grounds. Contracts may be signed that limit the upper limit. In this case, since the discharge amount of warm seawater is proportional to the power generation output, in addition to the instantaneous total output of the power generation units in this power plant, the daily total output and the monthly total output are limited. become. Therefore, the power generation unit in this power plant is handled as a warm drainage restriction unit group.

  Further, in the early combined cycle power generation, a control device (GLC) that groups a plurality of power generation units and distributes one load command to the plurality of power generation units is provided. The reason is that in early combined cycle power generation, the power generation capacity of one power generation unit was small, so if a load command was issued directly from the central power station to each power generation unit, processing at the central power station increased. It is because it has stopped. On the other hand, there is a case where a load command is issued directly from the central power station to each power generation unit due to the capacity increase (up rate) of the power generation unit controlled by the control device (GLC). Therefore, the situation where the number of members of the group increases or decreases from a certain point occurs.

  As described above, the power generation unit has a problem that its performance changes depending on the natural environment and a problem related to the group. Here, the power generation amount of each power generation unit needs to be a power generation amount according to demand. If the amount of power generation is greater than demand, the frequency will increase or the voltage will increase. On the other hand, when the amount of power generation is less than the demand, the wind wave number decreases or the voltage decreases. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately estimate the power generation amount of each power generation unit in order to realize the power generation amount according to demand. Matching the predicted demand with the actual power generation amount is called the actual simultaneous amount.

  In addition, in recent years, the split between power generation companies and retailers, power generation companies are required to generate the amount of power generation committed to generate electricity, and retailers are required to sell to consumers It is required to consume only the amount of power generation. This is called the same amount of planned values. Power producers must pay a penalty called imbalance when the amount of power generation is less than the committed amount of power generation or too much.

  Therefore, for power generation companies, it is necessary to understand how the power generation amount of their power generation units changes due to changes in the natural environment and reflect this in the power generation plan. It is necessary to realize.

  In the power generation plan, power generation for a certain period (for example, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month) is planned with a certain time mesh (for example, intervals of 1 hour, 30 minutes, 5 minutes, etc.). For example, in order to satisfy the demand and the committed power generation amount, start timing and power generation output are planned for each of a plurality of power generation units of one or a plurality of power generation formats. In that case, it is also required to formulate a plan that takes into account an economical combination with low power generation costs.

JP 2009-22137 A

  Various methods are known for formulating a power generation plan. For example, a method of distributing a generator output by linking a plurality of generators is known. Also known is a method for flexible dynamic load distribution by dividing a plurality of generators into groups (groups) and increasing the output of one group in a certain demand phase and decreasing the output of the other group. ing. However, a method for reflecting the performance of each power generation unit in these distributions is not considered.

  Thus, with the conventional method, it is impossible to perform load distribution reflecting the performance of individual power generation units, for example, performance that varies depending on the natural environment. Furthermore, when grouping power generation units and performing load distribution, load distribution reflecting the performance and grouping of individual power generation units cannot be performed.

  Conventionally, there are a transmission / distribution company, a power generation company, and a retail company in one company, and when determining the load distribution of the power generation unit to the demand, even if a slight difference occurs, reserve power is provided. There was no big problem by expecting more. However, if the transmission / distribution company is separated from other companies in the future, the above-described imbalance penalty will occur.

  In order to minimize this imbalance, it is necessary to accurately reflect the performance of each power generation unit in the power generation plan. In addition, when a plurality of power generation units are controlled as a group, it is required to formulate a power generation plan that can cope with changes in group member configuration and performance of each member of the group from a certain point in time.

  Therefore, an object of an embodiment of the present invention is to provide a power generation plan formulation device, a power generation plan formulation method, and a power generation plan formulation program that can formulate a power generation plan in consideration of the performance and group of power generation facilities.

  According to one embodiment, the power generation plan formulation device is a power generation information processing unit that processes information about the performance or group of the power generation facility, and predicts the performance of the power generation facility based on data on the natural environment. Alternatively, as a definition of the group of power generation facilities, a power generation information processing unit is provided that registers data about the power generation facilities belonging to the group and data about restrictions on the group. Further, the apparatus generates power generation plans for the power generation facilities based on the performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processing unit or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processing unit. A planning section is provided. The power generation plan creation unit creates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the first data about the natural environment, and generates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the second data about the natural environment. Create a second power generation plan and create a third power generation plan based on the first and second power generation plans, or load distribution for the first group to which the power generation facility having the first performance belongs, and the second performance And selecting at least one of the load distributions for the second group to which the power generation facility belongs, and creating the power generation plan based on the selected load distributions.

It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the electric power generation plan formulation apparatus of 1st Embodiment. It is the figure which showed the example of the performance matrix map of 1st Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the electric power generation plan formulation apparatus of 1st Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the electric power generation plan formulation apparatus of 2nd Embodiment. It is a graph for demonstrating operation | movement of the electric power generation plan formulation apparatus of 2nd Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the electric power generation plan formulation apparatus of 2nd Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the electric power generation plan formulation apparatus of 3rd Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of 3rd Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the electric power generation plan formulation apparatus of 4th Embodiment. It is the figure which showed the example of the group definition data of 4th Embodiment. It is the schematic diagram which showed the example of the group structure of 4th Embodiment. It is the schematic diagram which showed the example of the group structure of 4th Embodiment. It is the graph which showed the example of the load distribution of 4th Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the electric power generation plan formulation apparatus of 5th Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of 6th Embodiment.

  Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. In FIG. 1 to FIG. 15, the same reference numerals are given to the same or similar configurations, and duplicate descriptions are omitted.

(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the power generation plan formulation device of the first embodiment. The power generation plan formulation apparatus in FIG. 1 formulates a power generation plan for when the power generation unit is activated and how much power is generated for the demand and the committed power generation amount. The power generation unit is, for example, a generator of various power generation formats. The power generation unit is an example of a power generation facility.

  1 includes a predicted demand data input unit 1, a power generation facility data input unit 2, a predicted weather data input unit 3, a power generation facility performance prediction unit 4, a power generation plan creation unit 5, and a predicted demand. Data storage unit 11, power generation facility data storage unit 12, predicted weather data storage unit 13, power generation facility performance data storage unit 14, power generation plan data storage unit 15, prediction error input unit 21, prediction error calculation unit 22 and a standby facility selection unit 23. The power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 of this embodiment is an example of a power generation information processing unit. Further, the prediction error calculation unit 22 of this embodiment is an example of an error rate calculation unit and a reserve rate calculation unit.

  The predicted demand data input unit 1 inputs predicted demand data, which is time-series data related to power demand prediction, to the power generation plan formulation device. The demand power predicted from this data is also the supply power that should be satisfied by the power generation unit for which the power generation plan is formulated. The predicted demand data storage unit 11 stores the predicted demand data input from the predicted demand data input unit 1 in a table in chronological order.

  The power generation facility data input unit 2 inputs power generation facility data, which is data on characteristics and operation of the power generation unit (power generation facility), to the power generation plan formulation device. Examples of power generation facility data include a power generation unit code name, basic conditions such as the rated MW and minimum MW of the power generation unit, information on constraints imposed on the power generation unit (type of constraint conditions and constraint period), and the like. The power generation facility data storage unit 12 stores the power generation facility data input from the power generation facility data input unit 2 in a table. The power generation facility data storage unit 12 further stores a calculation range necessary when the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan.

  The predicted weather data input unit 3 inputs predicted weather data, which is time-series data relating to weather prediction in the vicinity of the power generation unit at the power generation scheduled date and time, to the power generation plan formulation device. The predicted weather data is an example of data on the natural environment. The predicted weather data of this embodiment is predicted data of the temperature (atmospheric temperature) and seawater temperature (seawater temperature) in the vicinity of the power generation unit. The predicted weather data storage unit 13 stores the predicted weather data input from the predicted weather data input unit 3 in a table. Predicted weather data is stored in a table for each time mesh.

  The power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the predicted weather data acquired from the predicted weather data storage unit 13 and the power generation facility data acquired from the power generation facility data storage unit 12. Specifically, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 calculates the prediction data of the performance of the power generation unit that changes depending on the weather for each time mesh. An example of such performance is the maximum output of the power generation unit that varies with temperature or seawater temperature. The performance prediction result by the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 is stored in the performance matrix map of the power generation facility performance data storage unit 14 as power generation facility performance data.

For example, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 uses, as the power generation facility data, the reference thermal efficiency η [%], the correction coefficient α [%] due to seawater temperature, the correction coefficient β [%] due to temperature, and the temperature of the combined cycle power generation maximum thermal power Correction coefficient k ₁ [MW / ° C. ³ ], k ₂ [MW / ° C. ² ], k ₃ [MW / ° C.], k ₄ [MW], calorific value Fv [yen / MJ], power generation output P [MW] The combustion cost Y [yen / h] is taken out from the power generation facility data storage unit 12. Further, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 takes out the temperature Ta [° C.] and the seawater temperature Tw [° C.] from the power generation facility data storage unit 12 as predicted weather data. Then, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 substitutes the power generation facility data and the predicted weather data into the formulas (1) to (8).

  Formula (1) represents the maximum output Px [MW] after temperature correction of combined cycle power generation. Equation (2) represents the thermal efficiency η ′ [%] after temperature correction of combined cycle power generation. Equation (3) represents the thermal efficiency η ′ [%] after temperature correction of steam power generation.

Equation (4) represents the relationship between the seawater temperature Tw [° C.] and the degree of vacuum V [hPa] (a _{1 to} a ₄ are seawater temperature correction coefficients). Equation (5) represents the relationship between the degree of vacuum V [hPa] and the correction coefficient α [%] (b _{1 to} b ₄ are correction coefficients for the degree of vacuum). Equation (6) represents the relationship between the temperature Ta [° C.] and the correction coefficient β [%] (c _{1 to} c ₄ are correction coefficients for the temperature).

  Expression (7) represents the relationship between the power generation output P [MW] and the fuel cost Y [yen / h] (where Kf [J / Wh] is a calorific value conversion coefficient). Expression (8) represents an approximate expression by the least square method of the relationship between the power generation output P [MW] and the fuel cost Y [yen / h].

  Note that the symbol i is used to distinguish between the power generation units. For example, P (1) = 500 MW, P (2) = 375 MW, P (3) = 250 MW, P (4) = 125 MW. In addition, the symbols a, b, and c in Equation (8) are referred to as the second-order coefficient, first-order coefficient, and constant term of the fuel cost function, respectively. It can be said that as the values of a, b, and c are smaller, the power generation unit can operate at a lower fuel cost and the economic performance is higher.

  When handling the combined cycle power generation unit, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 calculates the maximum output Px from the equation (1), and the calculation results of the equations (2) and (4) to (7) are calculated by the equation (8). To calculate the secondary coefficient a, the primary coefficient b, and the constant term c of the fuel cost function (see FIG. 2).

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a performance matrix map according to the first embodiment.

  FIG. 2 shows the temperature Ta and the seawater temperature Tw given for each time mesh. The power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 calculates the maximum output Px, the second order coefficient a, the first order coefficient b, and the constant term c of each power generation unit based on the temperature Ta and the seawater temperature Tw, and displays them in the performance matrix map. Store every time mesh. FIG. 2 shows an example of time series data of Px, a, b, and c of the power generation units 1, 2,..., N.

  FIG. 2 shows changes in the temperature Ta and the seawater temperature Tw from 00:00 to 14:00 on a sunny day. As understood from FIG. 2, the temperature Ta rises from midnight to noon on a clear day. On the other hand, the maximum output Px of the combined cycle power generation unit decreases as the temperature Ta increases (see the maximum output Px of the power generation units 1 to n in FIG. 2). Therefore, the combined cycle power generation unit may not be able to increase its output to the rating when the temperature Ta increases from midnight to noon.

  Therefore, when creating a power generation plan in this embodiment, for example, the power generation plan is created taking into account the maximum output Px of the performance matrix map. Thereby, it is possible to realize power generation with a small difference between the power generation amount of the power generation plan and the actual power generation amount.

  In combined cycle power generation and steam power generation, the power generation efficiency of the power generation unit changes due to the influence of the temperature Ta and the seawater temperature Tw. Therefore, when it is desired to distribute the output of a plurality of power generation units so that the fuel cost is lower, the relationship between the total output of these power generation units and the temperature Ta and seawater temperature Tw is calculated, and based on this calculation result By determining the output distribution, the combustion cost can be reduced.

  Therefore, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 of the present embodiment calculates the second order coefficient a, the first order coefficient b, and the constant term c of the approximate expression (fuel cost function) of the relationship between the power generation output P and the fuel cost Y, These calculation results are stored in the performance matrix map. Thereby, the power generation plan creation unit 5 can grasp the relationship between the power generation output P of each power generation unit and the fuel cost Y, and distributes the output so that the total fuel cost of the plurality of power generation units is reduced. It is possible to create a power generation plan.

  Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 1 again, the configuration and operation of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the present embodiment will be described.

  The power generation plan creation unit 5 acquires data on the performance of the power generation unit (power generation facility performance data) from the performance matrix map in the power generation facility performance data storage unit 14 and acquires predicted demand data from the predicted demand data storage unit 11. . Then, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan for the power generation unit based on the acquired power generation facility performance data and predicted demand data. This makes it possible to create a power generation plan that takes into account the prediction of power demand and suitable output distribution. The power generation plan created by the power generation plan creation unit 5 is stored for each time mesh in the power generation plan data storage unit 15 as power generation plan data.

  For example, the power generation plan creation unit 5 acquires the maximum output Px of a plurality of power generation units from the performance matrix map, and distributes the output of these power generation units so that the difference between the power generation amount of the power generation plan and the actual power generation amount becomes small. To create a power generation plan. This makes it possible to create a power generation plan that satisfies the demand and committed power generation amount.

  Further, the power generation plan creation unit 5 acquires the secondary coefficient a, the first coefficient b, and the constant term c of the fuel cost function of the plurality of power generation units from the performance matrix map, and the total fuel cost of these power generation units is low. A power generation plan is created by allocating output so that This makes it possible to create an economical power generation plan with low power generation costs.

  Next, functions of the prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculation unit 22, and the standby facility selection unit 23 will be described.

  If a long period of time is available from the time the power generation plan is created to the time of submission, there may be a large difference between the atmospheric temperature (expected temperature) of the power generation plan and the actual atmospheric temperature (actual temperature). This difference varies depending on the season.For example, if the atmospheric temperature of the power generation plan corresponds to the temperature of a sunny summer day and the actual atmospheric temperature corresponds to the temperature of a summer rainy day, the former expected temperature and the latter In some cases, a difference from the actual temperature of 10 ° C. may occur. The same applies to the seawater temperature.

  In fact, if the power generation calculation is created in consideration of the actual temperature of the day instead of the expected temperature, the power demand may not be met. In that case, it is difficult to instantaneously determine how much the demand is not satisfied and which power generation unit can be activated. Therefore, the prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculation unit 22, and the standby facility selection unit 23 deal with this problem by operating as follows.

  The prediction error input unit 21 switches whether the prediction error calculation is turned on or off according to a switching operation from the user of the power generation plan formulation device. The predicted weather data input unit 3 inputs the current predicted weather data to the power generation plan formulation device, whereas the prediction error input unit 21 inputs predicted weather data predicted in the past to the power generation plan formulation device. . The former forecast weather data is an example of the first data, and the latter forecast weather data is an example of the second data. The predicted weather data of this embodiment is predicted data of the temperature (atmospheric temperature) and seawater temperature (seawater temperature) in the vicinity of the power generation unit.

  As described above, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 acquires the current predicted weather data from the predicted weather data input unit 3 (predicted weather data storage unit 13), predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on this data, The prediction result is stored in the power generation facility performance data storage unit 14 as power generation facility performance data. Then, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan based on the power generation facility performance data. Hereinafter, this power generation plan is referred to as a “first power generation plan”.

  Similarly, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 acquires past predicted weather data from the prediction error input unit 21, predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on this data, and uses this prediction result as power generation facility performance data. Stored in the performance data storage unit 14. Then, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan based on the power generation facility performance data. Hereinafter, this power generation plan is referred to as a “second power generation plan”.

  The prediction error calculation unit 22 calculates an error rate related to the power supply of the first power generation plan and an error rate related to the power supply of the second power generation plan. The error rate of the present embodiment is the ratio between the demand power and the supply power at the same time, and is given by dividing the supply power by the demand power. The error rate of the first power generation plan is calculated using the first power generation plan and the predicted demand data, and the error rate of the second power generation plan is calculated using the second power generation plan and the predicted demand data.

  Further, the prediction error calculation unit 22 recalculates the standby rate for the standby of the power generation unit when the error rate of the second power generation plan is larger or smaller than the error rate of the first power generation plan. Specifically, the reserve rate is recalculated so that these error rates match. The reserve ratio of this embodiment is an index for operating the power generation unit at an output less than the maximum output. For example, when the reserve ratio is 20%, at least one of the power generation units for which the power generation plan is formulated is operated with an output of 80% of the maximum output and is made to stand by with an output of less than the maximum output. A reserve rate having a value different from the reserve rate calculated by the power generation plan creation unit 5 is recalculated by the prediction error calculation unit 22.

  At this time, the standby facility selection unit 23 determines whether or not the recalculated reserve ratio is a value that requires additional activation or additional stop of the power generation unit. The standby equipment selection unit 23 selects a power generation unit that can be immediately started or stopped in consideration of the efficiency of each power generation unit when additional start or stop of the power generation unit is required. The result is notified to the power generation plan creation unit 5. The power generation unit selected as the activation target is operated with an output less than the maximum output.

  The power generation plan creation unit 5 corrects the first power generation plan based on the notification from the standby facility selection unit 23. For example, if there is no additional start or stop of the power generation unit, the lineup of the power generation unit that is being started is not changed, and the load of the power generation unit that is being started is changed, so that the recalculation result of the reserve ratio is supported The first power generation plan is corrected. On the other hand, when there is an additional activation of the power generation unit, there is a problem that conditions such as the timing at which the power generation unit can be activated and the time required to reach a predetermined output after the power generation unit is activated differ for each power generation unit. . For this reason, the power generation plan creation unit 5 in this case corrects the first power generation plan in accordance with the result of the reserve ratio recalculation in consideration of these conditions.

  In this way, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a third power generation plan that satisfies the reserve ratio by correcting the first power generation plan, and stores the third power generation plan in the power generation plan data storage unit 15 as power generation plan data. To do.

  The power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 may acquire past predicted weather data from the predicted weather data storage unit 13 instead of acquiring past predicted weather data from the prediction error input unit 21. In this case, for example, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 converts the predicted weather data that is close to the current predicted weather data and the temperature and seawater temperature from the predicted weather data about one year before the current predicted weather data to the past predicted weather data. It may be acquired as data.

  FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the first embodiment.

  When the prediction error calculation is on (step S11), the prediction error calculation unit 22 calculates an error rate based on the first power generation plan (current prediction weather data) (step S12) and the second power generation plan. An error rate is calculated based on (predicted weather data) (step S13). Note that the predicted weather data in step S12 may not necessarily be the current weather prediction data as long as it is past data than the predicted weather data in step S13.

  Next, the prediction error calculation unit 22 recalculates a reserve rate related to standby of the power generation unit so that these error rates match (step S14). Next, the standby facility selection unit 23 determines whether or not the recalculated reserve ratio is a value that requires additional activation or additional stop of the power generation unit (step S15).

  If additional activation or additional stop of the power generation unit is required, a power generation unit that can be immediately activated or stopped is selected, and the power generation unit selected as the activation target is activated with an output less than the maximum output (step S16). Thereafter, the third power generation plan that satisfies the reserve ratio is created by correcting the first power generation plan (step S17). On the other hand, when it is not necessary to additionally start or stop the power generation unit, step S17 is executed without going through step S16.

  As described above, the power generation plan formulation apparatus according to the present embodiment predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on data on the natural environment such as the temperature and the seawater temperature, and creates a power generation plan based on the predicted performance. Therefore, according to this embodiment, it is possible to formulate a suitable power generation plan that takes into account changes in the performance of the power generation unit due to the natural environment, and formulate a power generation plan that is excellent in predicting power generation and generating power economically. It becomes possible to do.

  Further, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to formulate a power generation plan that can easily cope with a change in weather. For example, when the weather changes from cloudy to clear weather when using the power generation plan, it is possible to respond to changes in the weather by immediately starting or stopping the power generation unit. Therefore, according to the present embodiment, a highly feasible power generation plan can be formulated.

(Second Embodiment)
FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the second embodiment.

  The power generation plan formulation device of FIG. 4 includes a load distribution calculation unit 24 instead of the standby facility selection unit 23 of FIG.

  As described above, if the power generation calculation is created in consideration of the actual temperature of the day instead of the predicted temperature, the power demand may not be satisfied. In that case, it is difficult to instantaneously determine how much the demand is not satisfied and which power generation unit can be activated. In some cases, even if an attempt is made to start the power generation unit when the temperature of the day is known, the start-up may not be in time. In this case, demand will not be achieved. Therefore, in this embodiment, instead of using the standby facility selection unit 23, the load distribution calculation unit 24 is used, and instead of allowing a certain error rate, the power generation unit is additionally started or stopped as in the first embodiment. To avoid.

  Hereinafter, operations of the prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculation unit 22, and the load distribution calculation unit 24 of the present embodiment will be described.

  Similar to the first embodiment, the prediction error input unit 21 switches whether the prediction error calculation is turned on or off. The predicted weather data input unit 3 inputs the current predicted weather data to the power generation plan formulation device, whereas the prediction error input unit 21 inputs predicted weather data predicted in the past to the power generation plan formulation device. .

  The power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the current predicted weather data, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan (first power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. . Similarly, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on past predicted weather data, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 generates a power generation plan (second power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. Create

  The prediction error calculation unit 22 calculates an error rate related to the power supply of the first power generation plan and an error rate related to the power supply of the second power generation plan. Further, the prediction error calculation unit 22 recalculates the standby rate for the standby of the power generation unit when the error rate of the second power generation plan is larger or smaller than the error rate of the first power generation plan.

  At this time, the load distribution calculation unit 24 determines whether or not the first power generation plan can satisfy the reserve rate only by the load fluctuation of the power generation unit over the entire period. The load distribution calculation unit 24 realizes a desired reserve ratio by starting and stopping the power generation unit if it is necessary to start and stop, but only changing the load distribution of the power generation unit if starting and stopping is unnecessary. Realize the reserve rate with. In the latter case, the load distribution calculation unit 24 creates a unit lineup that can respond immediately even if the load distribution needs to be changed according to the change in the reserve ratio. The information on the start / stop of the power generation unit and the load distribution is notified from the load distribution calculation unit 24 to the power generation plan creation unit 5.

  The power generation plan creation unit 5 corrects the first power generation plan based on the notification from the load distribution calculation unit 24. Specifically, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a third power generation plan that satisfies the reserve ratio by correcting the first power generation plan, and uses the third power generation plan as power generation plan data to generate the power generation plan data storage unit 15. Store in. Note that the reserve ratio of the present embodiment does not have to be set so that the error rates of the first and second power generation plans match, and may be set so that the difference between these error rates falls within a certain range. .

  FIG. 5 is a graph for explaining the operation of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the second embodiment.

  FIG. 5 shows the time change of the load (MW) of a certain power generation unit. The load of each power generation unit has restrictions on the load change rate and the keep time. The load change rate is a load change amount per minute. For example, the upper limit and the lower limit of the load change amount change according to the magnitude of the load. The load keep time is a time during which the value of the same load lasts. For example, when the load becomes X or more, the load keep time is restricted to Y or less (X and Y are predetermined real numbers).

  Therefore, the load distribution calculation unit 24 creates a unit lineup that can immediately respond to changes in load distribution according to changes in the reserve ratio while simultaneously satisfying these constraints and other constraints from the power generation facility data storage unit 12. To do.

  FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the second embodiment.

  When the prediction error calculation is on (step S21), the prediction error calculation unit 22 calculates an error rate based on the first power generation plan (current prediction weather data) (step S22) and the second power generation plan. An error rate is calculated based on (past predicted weather data) (step S23).

  Next, the prediction error calculation unit 22 recalculates the reserve rate for standby of the power generation unit so that the difference between these error rates falls within a certain range (step S24). Next, the load distribution calculation unit 24 determines whether or not the first power generation plan can satisfy the reserve rate only by the load fluctuation of the power generation unit over the entire period (step S25).

  If it is not possible to cope with only the load fluctuation, the output of the power generation unit being started is appropriately reduced, or if the demand is not satisfied at this time, the power generation unit being stopped is appropriately started (step S26). Thereafter, the third power generation plan that satisfies the reserve ratio is created by correcting the first power generation plan (step S27). On the other hand, when it can respond only by load fluctuation, step S27 is performed without going through step S26.

  According to the present embodiment, it is possible to formulate a power generation plan that can easily cope with changes in weather. For example, when the weather changes from cloudy to clear weather when using the power generation plan, it is possible to respond to changes in the weather by changing the load distribution without starting and stopping the power generation unit. Therefore, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to formulate a power generation plan with a high degree of freedom that can cope with a sudden change in weather only by changing the load distribution.

(Third embodiment)
FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the third embodiment.

  7 includes a supply capacity margin adding unit 25 and a supply capacity notifying unit 26 instead of the prediction error calculating unit 22 and the standby facility selecting unit 23 of FIG. The supply capability margin adding unit 25 of the present embodiment is an example of a margin calculating unit.

  As described above, if the power generation calculation is created in consideration of the actual temperature of the day instead of the predicted temperature, the power demand may not be satisfied. In that case, after committing the power generation plan and sending it to the retailer, if the power cannot be supplied as expected due to sudden weather changes, a penalty called imbalance must be paid if the power generation amount of the power generation plan cannot be satisfied. Don't be. Therefore, in this embodiment, when the retailer is first notified of the supply capability (supply capability), the temperature (or seawater temperature; the same applies hereinafter) is predicted to be higher and the maximum output is calculated to formulate a power generation plan. To do.

  Hereinafter, operations of the prediction error input unit 21, the supply capability margin addition unit 25, and the supply capability notification unit 26 of the present embodiment will be described.

  The prediction error input unit 21 switches whether the supply capacity calculation is turned on or off according to the switching operation from the user of the power generation plan formulation device. Further, the prediction error input unit 21 inputs a differential temperature (temperature margin) for allowing a change in temperature to the power generation plan formulation device in accordance with an input operation from the user. When the differential temperature is T ° C., the actual temperature variation with respect to the predicted temperature is allowed to ± T ° C. Further, the predicted weather data input unit 3 inputs the current predicted weather data to the power generation plan formulation device, whereas the prediction error input unit 21 inputs the predicted weather data predicted in the past to the power generation plan formulation device. .

  The power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the current predicted weather data, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan (first power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. . On the other hand, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the past predicted weather data and the differential temperature, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 generates the power generation plan (second operation based on the power generation facility performance data). Power generation plan). As a result, the second power generation result reflects the differential temperature.

  The supply capacity margin adding unit 25 calculates a margin (remaining power demand) related to the power supply of the power generation unit based on the first and second power generation plans. This margin is created for each time mesh in the all time mesh and provided to the power generation plan creation unit 5. The power generation plan creation unit 5 corrects the first power generation plan by adding a margin to the predicted demand and recreating the first power generation plan. In this way, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a third power generation plan that satisfies the margin by modifying the first power generation plan, and stores the third power generation plan in the power generation plan data storage unit 15 as power generation plan data. .

  The supply capability notification unit 26 refers to the power generation plan data in the power generation plan data storage unit 15 and notifies the retailer of the third power generation plan instead of the first power generation plan. As a result, it is possible to send to the retailer a power generation plan that can satisfy the power demand even if the supply capacity of the power generation unit for which the power generation plan is formulated decreases by a margin due to a change in weather. The margin value of the present embodiment is calculated, for example, by using a second power generation plan created by changing the predicted temperature within a range of ± T ° C. (fluctuation width). The supply capacity notification unit 26 may notify the retailer of the information on the supply capacity of the power generation unit together with the information on the third power generation plan.

  FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the third embodiment.

  When the supply capacity calculation is on (step S31), the supply capacity margin adding unit 25 calculates the supply capacity of the power generation unit based on the first power generation plan (current forecast weather data) (step S32). Based on the second power generation plan (past predicted weather data), the supply capacity of the power generation unit is calculated (step S33).

  Here, the 1st power generation plan of this embodiment is created using the forecast weather data with high temperature as current forecast weather data. (See step S32). On the other hand, the second power generation plan of the present embodiment is created by changing the temperature in the past predicted weather data within the fluctuation range (see step S33).

  In step S33, instead of acquiring past predicted weather data from the prediction error input unit 21, the past predicted weather data may be acquired from the predicted weather data storage unit 13 to create the second power generation plan. . In this case, for example, it is desirable that the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 acquires, as the past predicted weather data, predicted weather data having a higher temperature among the predicted weather data about one year before the current predicted weather data.

  Next, the supply capacity margin adding unit 25 calculates a margin related to the power supply of the power generation unit based on the first and second power generation plans, and adds a margin to the supply capacity of the power generation unit (step S34). Specifically, a margin is added by adding a margin to the predicted demand. For example, the margin value of the present embodiment is set so that the power demand is satisfied even if the temperature fluctuates within the fluctuation range in step S33.

  Next, the supply capacity margin adding unit 25 determines whether or not the power generation unit needs to be additionally started or stopped in order to realize the supply capacity to which the margin is added (step S35). If additional start or stop of the power generation unit is necessary, the output of the power generation unit being started is appropriately reduced, or if the demand is not met at this time, the power generation unit being stopped is started as appropriate (step S36). ). Thereafter, the third power generation plan that satisfies the margin is created by correcting the first power generation plan (step S37). On the other hand, when it is not necessary to additionally start or stop the power generation unit, step S37 is executed without going through step S36.

  According to the present embodiment, it is possible to formulate a power generation plan that can easily cope with changes in weather. For example, a power generation plan that can avoid paying a penalty called imbalance when the weather changes from cloudy to clear weather when using the power generation plan can be formulated.

(Fourth embodiment)
FIG. 9 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the power generation plan formulation device of the fourth embodiment.

  The power generation plan formulation apparatus in FIG. 9 includes a predicted weather data input unit 3, a power generation facility performance prediction unit 4, a predicted weather data storage unit 13, a power generation facility performance data storage unit 14, a prediction error input unit 21, and a prediction error calculation in FIG. Instead of the unit 22 and the standby equipment selection unit 23, the group definition data input unit 6, the group constraint change unit 7, the group definition change unit 8, the virtual GLC group load distribution unit 9, and the GLC group load distribution unit 10 And a group definition data storage unit 16 and a group constraint data storage unit 17. The group definition data input unit 6, the group constraint change unit 7, and the group definition change unit 8 of this embodiment are examples of a power generation information processing unit. The group definition data input unit 6 and the group definition data storage unit 16 of this embodiment are examples of an input unit and a storage unit, respectively.

  The group definition data input unit 6 inputs and registers group definition data, which is data relating to the definition of the group of power generation units, to the power generation plan formulation device. The group definition data includes data on power generation units belonging to the group and data on restrictions on the group. The former data indicates which power generation unit belongs to which group. The latter data shows what constraints are imposed on which groups. The group definition data storage unit 16 stores (registers) the group definition data input from the group definition data input unit 6 in a table.

  A part of the group definition data in the group definition data storage unit 16 is created using the power generation facility data in the power generation facility data storage unit 12. Examples of such group definition data are code names, basic conditions, constraint information, etc. of power generation units belonging to the group. The group restrictions may be input from the power generation facility data input unit 2 instead of the group definition data input unit 6, or may be input from both the group definition data input unit 6 and the power generation facility data input unit 2. You may do it. In this case, the power generation facility data input unit 2 is an example of a power generation information processing unit or an input unit.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of group definition data according to the fourth embodiment.

  FIG. 10 shows groups A to C which are the same middle control group, groups D and E which are the removal suspension utilization rate groups, groups F and G which are the output restriction groups, and groups H to J which are the GLC groups. Show. For example, the power generation units 1 and 2 belong to the group A, and the power generation units 3 and 4 belong to the group B.

  The same middle operation group is a group of power generation units belonging to the same power plant operation. The removal stop utilization rate group is a group for restricting the removal stop utilization rate of the power generation units belonging to the group. The output restriction group is a group for restricting the output of the power generation units belonging to the group. The GLC group is a group for allocating one load command to the power generation units belonging to the group. Other examples include a simultaneous activation restriction group that restricts simultaneous activation of power generation units that belong to a group, and a power plant group that includes power generation units that belong to the same power plant.

  For example, in order to comply with the fishery agreement A, a restriction (restriction) that sets the total output of the group F to 1000 MW or less is imposed on the group F that is an output restriction group. In this case, the total output of the power generation units 1 to 4 belonging to the group F is limited to 1000 MW or less within the period in which the group F is valid.

  Further, in order to comply with the environmental emission standard B, a restriction (restriction) that sets the total output of the group G to 600 MW or less is imposed on the group G that is an output restriction group. In many cases, the restriction of 600 MW is a restriction imposed on one power generation unit. Therefore, in a period during which the group G is valid, in many cases, only one power generation unit belonging to the group G operates, but when the output of each power generation unit is small, 2 belonging to the group G More than one power generation unit can operate simultaneously.

  In addition, a restriction (restriction) is imposed on the simultaneous activation restriction group so that the number of power generation units that can be activated simultaneously is, for example, one. In this case, two or more power generation units belonging to this group cannot be activated at the same time during a period in which this group is valid.

  As described above, restrictions on groups include restrictions on conditions such as 1000 MW, 600 MW, and simultaneous activation restrictions, and restrictions on periods such as the effective period and invalid period of groups. The group definition data storage unit 16 stores data on restrictions on such conditions and periods as group definition data.

  There are two types of constraints on the group of this embodiment. One is a case where constraints on a group are determined first, and then a power generation unit that is a member of the group is determined. In this case, when a certain power generation unit is determined to be a member of a group, constraints imposed on the power generation unit are automatically determined. The other is when the group members are determined first and then the constraints for the group are determined. In this case, the restrictions imposed on the power generation units belonging to a certain group are determined after the power generation unit becomes a member of the group.

  FIG. 11 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a group configuration according to the fourth embodiment.

  11 belongs to the output restriction group with the power generation units 1 to 3, belongs to the same middle operation group with the power generation units 2 to 4, belongs to the simultaneous start restriction group with the power generation units 3 to 6, and the power generation units 5, 6 It shows that it belongs to a certain fisheries agreement A target group.

  Here, the power generation unit 2 belongs to the same middle control group as the output restriction group, and the power generation unit 5 belongs to the simultaneous activation restriction group and the fishery agreement A target group. Thus, the group of this embodiment is defined so that it is permitted that one power generation unit belongs to a plurality of groups.

  FIG. 12 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a group configuration according to the fourth embodiment. FIG. 12 corresponds to an abstraction of FIG.

In FIG. 12, the power generation units U _{1 to} U ₄ belong to the group G ₁ , the power generation units U ₄ and U ₅ belong to the group G ₂ , the power generation units U _{5 to} U ₉ belong to the group G ₃ , and the power generation unit U ₈ , U ₉ belongs to group G ₄ . The groups G _{1 to} G ₄ are defined so that one power generation unit is allowed to belong to a plurality of groups.

  In this case, since each power generation unit can belong to a plurality of groups, it is possible to change the constraints imposed on the power generation units in various forms and perform free load distribution. On the other hand, if there are many types of constraints imposed on the power generation unit, it may be difficult to operate the power generation unit flexibly because the constraints compete with each other.

  Therefore, in the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the present embodiment, data relating to various groups is provided to the power generation plan creation unit 5, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan so that the restrictions of these groups are compatible as much as possible. . That is, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan in a form that seeks a solution of information processing in which a plurality of constraints are imposed. This makes it possible to formulate a suitable power generation plan while handling various groups.

  Hereinafter, the configuration and operation of the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 9 again.

  The group constraint changing unit 7 and the group definition changing unit 8 are blocks for changing (updating) the group definition data in the group definition data storage unit 16. In the present embodiment, the group definition data input unit 6 can continuously change the group definition data, and the group definition change unit 8 can temporarily change the group definition data. The user of the power generation plan formulation device can change the group definition data by performing an operation for changing the group definition data continuously or temporarily on the UI (User Interface) of the power generation plan formulation device.

  The group constraint changing unit 7 inputs group constraint data for temporarily changing the group constraint included in the group definition data to the power generation plan formulation device. The group constraint data input from the group definition changing unit 7 is stored in the group constraint data storage unit 17. This group constraint data is an example of change data.

  The group definition changing unit 8 temporarily changes the group definition data in the group definition data storage unit 16 based on the group constraint data in the group constraint data storage unit 17. For example, when group constraint data of a certain group is read from the group constraint data storage unit 17, the group definition data in the group definition data storage unit 16 is rewritten so that the definition (constraint) of the group is changed.

  The group constraint data includes, for example, data related to a change period and change contents of constraints imposed on the group. The group definition changing unit 8 changes the group definition data in the group definition data storage unit 16 according to the change contents during the change period. After this change period has elapsed, the group definition data in the group definition data storage unit 16 returns to its original contents.

  The power generation plan creation unit 5 acquires data (group definition data) related to the definition of the group of power generation units from the group definition data storage unit 16 and acquires predicted demand data from the predicted demand data storage unit 11. Then, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan for the power generation unit based on the acquired group definition data and predicted demand data. As a result, it is possible to create a power generation plan that takes into account the prediction of power demand and the constraints of each group, and it is possible to generate power according to the power demand while satisfying the constraints of each group. . The power generation plan created by the power generation plan creation unit 5 is stored for each time mesh in the power generation plan data storage unit 15 as power generation plan data.

  If the group definition data in the group definition data storage unit 16 is temporarily changed by the group definition change unit 8, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan based on the changed group definition data. To do. On the other hand, when the group definition data in the group definition data storage unit 16 has not been changed by the group definition change unit 8, the power generation plan creation unit 5 uses the group definition data input unit 6 (or the power generation facility data input unit 2). A power generation plan is created based on the group definition data input by.

  Moreover, the power generation plan creation unit 5 acquires the processing result obtained by the virtual GLC group load distribution unit 9 and the GLC group load distribution unit 10 processing the group definition data instead of acquiring the group definition data itself. Also good. Hereinafter, operations of the virtual GLC group load distribution unit 9 and the GLC group load distribution unit 10, and the virtual GLC group and the GLC group will be described. The virtual GLC group is an example of the first group, and the GLC group is an example of the second group.

  In the power generation unit that is subject to GLC control, the GLC control device provided in the power generation unit receives a command from the central power station, and the GLC control device is in a state in which the power supply command is ready after completion of activation. An evenly divided command value is given.

  In this case, regarding the power generation units belonging to the GLC group, characteristics such as the maximum output, the start curve, and the stop curve can be processed without problems for each power generation unit, but a problem occurs in load distribution of the power generation units. The reason is that load distribution is performed using the equal λ method, so load distribution of power generation units having the same incremental unit price can be performed simultaneously, but load distribution of power generation units having different incremental unit prices cannot be performed simultaneously. Load distribution of power generation units with different incremental unit prices can only be performed in order.

  However, the incremental unit price between the power generation units is not often the same and is generally different. In general, there are only examples of power generation units having the same increment unit price, such as a combined cycle power generation coaxial power generation unit.

  Here, depending on the characteristics of the power generation unit, if the unit price (yen) per unit MW of units A and B is compared with the lowest output, even if unit A is cheaper, the unit A and B per unit MW When the unit price (yen) is compared at the maximum output, the cost of unit B may be lower. Further, the cost for increasing the output of units A and B by 100 MW is lower for unit A, but the cost after the increase may be lower for unit B. Therefore, a general GLC load distribution process has a problem that it can be applied only to power generation units having the same increment unit price.

  On the other hand, in the present embodiment, power generation units having the same incremental unit price are grouped as a GLC group, and power generation units having a similar incremental unit price are grouped as a virtual GLC group. Power generation units having the same incremental unit price may belong to the virtual GLC group, or power generation units having different incremental unit prices may belong to the virtual GLC group. The virtual GLC group of the present embodiment includes power generation units having the same approximate unit price. In other words, the power generation units having the same increment unit price within the error range belong to the same virtual GLC group.

  Therefore, in the present embodiment, when there are a plurality of power generation units having the same increment unit price within the error range, these are grouped as a virtual GLC group. The load distribution of these power generation units is performed on the assumption that the increment unit price of these power generation units is the same value. As a result, it is possible to simultaneously perform load distribution of power generation units having different incremental unit prices. Moreover, since the increment unit price of these power generation units approximately coincides, it is possible to suppress inconvenience and calculation error due to simultaneous allocation. The approximation accuracy that the incremental unit price is approximately the same can be set to a low accuracy when inconvenience and calculation error due to simultaneous allocation are not considered as a serious problem, and it is possible to group many power generation units. Become.

  The power generation plan formulation apparatus of the present embodiment includes both the virtual GLC group load distribution unit 9 and the GLC group load distribution unit 10 in order to use both the virtual GLC group and the GLG group. As will be described later, the power generation plan creation unit 5 may create a power generation plan using either the load distribution of the virtual GLC group or the load distribution of the GLG group, or the load distribution of the virtual GLC group and the GLG group. A power generation plan may be created using both group load distributions.

  Further, the GLC group and the virtual GLC group may be set based on performance other than the incremental unit price. In this case, power generation units having the same performance are grouped as a GLC group, and power generation units having close performance are grouped as a virtual GLC group.

  Next, details of the virtual GLC group load distribution unit 9 and the GLC group load distribution unit 10 will be described.

  The GLC group load distribution unit 10 is a block that determines load distribution for the GLC group. The GLC group is a group for allocating one load command to the power generation units belonging to the group. The GLC group load distribution unit 10 determines the load distribution of the power generation units belonging to the GLC group based on the group definition data acquired from the group definition data storage unit 16.

  On the other hand, the virtual GLC group load distribution unit 9 is a block that determines load distribution for the virtual GLC group. Similar to the GLC group, the virtual GLC group is a group for allocating one load command to the power generation units belonging to the group. The virtual GLC group load distribution unit 9 determines the load distribution of the power generation units belonging to the virtual GLC group based on the group definition data acquired from the group definition data storage unit 16.

  The power generation plan creation unit 5 obtains the load distribution determination result (first load distribution data) of the power generation units belonging to the virtual GLC group from the virtual GLC group load distribution unit 9 and determines the load distribution of the power generation units belonging to the GLC group. The result (second load distribution data) is acquired from the GLC group load distribution unit 10 and the predicted demand data is acquired from the predicted demand data storage unit 11. Then, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan for the power generation unit based on the acquired first load distribution data, second load distribution data, and predicted demand data. This makes it possible to create a power generation plan that takes into account power demand prediction, GLC group load distribution, and virtual GLC group load distribution, and generates power according to the power demand while achieving the load command. It becomes possible. The power generation plan created by the power generation plan creation unit 5 is stored for each time mesh in the power generation plan data storage unit 15 as power generation plan data.

  The power generation plan creation unit 5 may create a power generation plan using either the load distribution of the virtual GLC group or the load distribution of the GLG group, or the load distribution of the virtual GLC group and the load of the GLG group. A power generation plan may be created using both of the distributions. For example, if there are power generation units that belong to both the virtual GLC group and the GLC group, or if you want to create a power generation plan that considers only one of the virtual GLC group and the GLG group, only load distribution of either one Can be considered. In this case, the power generation plan creation unit 5 selects the load distribution of the virtual GLC group or the load distribution of the GLG group, and creates a power generation plan based on the selected load distribution.

  Next, details of load distribution according to the present embodiment will be described. The following description is given for the GLC group, but can be applied to the virtual GLC group as appropriate.

  When the GLC group includes a plurality of power generation units having different fuel efficiency performances, the GLC group load distribution unit 10 determines the load distribution so that the power generation units with good fuel efficiency performance operate as much as possible. Specifically, when the power demand is small, the GLC group load distribution unit 10 determines the load distribution so that the power generation units with poor fuel performance in the GLC group are disconnected. On the other hand, when the power demand is large, the GLC group load distribution unit 10 determines the load distribution so that the power generation units having poor fuel performance in the GLC group are arranged in parallel.

  Furthermore, if the amount of change in the power demand is within a range that does not require parallel or parallel generation of the power generation units, the GLC group load distribution unit 10 can adjust the GLC group so that it can respond to subsequent increases and decreases in power demand. The load distribution is determined so that the outputs of the plurality of power generation units are equal to each other. In this case, when one of the power generation units reaches the maximum output, the GLC group load distribution unit 10 maintains the output of the power generation unit at the maximum output, and the outputs of the remaining power generation units are equal to each other. To determine the load distribution. Further, when the next power generation unit reaches the maximum output, the GLC group load distribution unit 10 maintains the outputs of these two power generation units at the maximum output, and the outputs of the remaining power generation units have the same value. The load distribution is determined so as to match. The GLC group load distribution unit 10 repeats such processing until the outputs of all the power generation units of the GLC group reach the maximum output.

  Conversely, when the power demand decreases when the output of all the power generation units of the GLC group is the maximum output, the output of the power generation unit having the largest maximum output is gradually decreased. Next, when the output of this power generation unit drops to the output of the power generation unit with the second largest output, gradually reduce the output of these two power generation units to the same value, or stop one power generation unit. Gradually reduce the output of the other power generation unit. At this time, the GLC group load distribution unit 10 determines whether the load distribution of the two power generation units is defined as the former or the latter, and the load distribution with the higher economy is determined. Decide to adopt. The GLC group load distribution unit 10 repeats such processing for all the power generation units of the GLC group.

  In the present embodiment, a plurality of GLC groups can be registered in the group definition data storage unit 16. Regarding these GLC groups, when the maximum output is improved by the up-rate of the power generation unit and the performance of the power generation unit is improved by the improvement of the combustor, the members and the effective period of the GLC group are changed each time. Thus, in this embodiment, it is possible to operate a plurality of GLC groups flexibly.

  For example, it is assumed that a certain GLC group includes five power generation units, and the output change rate of each power generation unit is 5 MW / min. In this case, the output of each power generation unit changes only 5 MW per minute, but if the outputs of the five power generation units are changed simultaneously, a maximum output change rate of 25 MW / min can be realized. This is, for example, an effective load distribution method for backing up the power generation amount when the power generation amount of large-scale solar power generation (mega solar) greatly changes due to a sudden change in weather.

  The power generation plan creation unit 5 acquires load distribution data that defines the relationship between power demand and load distribution from the GLC group load distribution unit 10 and acquires predicted demand data from the predicted demand data storage unit 11. Then, the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates load distribution time series data by applying the predicted demand data to the relationship between power demand and load distribution, and creates a power generation plan based on the time series data.

  FIG. 13 is a graph illustrating an example of load distribution according to the fourth embodiment.

  FIG. 13 shows the time change of the output of the single-shaft power generation unit, the two-axis power generation unit, and the three-axis power generation unit of the combined cycle power generation belonging to a certain GLC group, and the time change of the power demand. FIG. 13 further shows the maximum output of the one-axis power generation unit, the two-axis power generation unit, and the three-axis power generation unit at a certain temperature. The maximum output of the power generation unit of combined cycle power generation is given by the above formula (1).

Code K ₁ shows a case where output only three shaft generator unit poor performance is set low, the reference numeral K ₅ shows a case of stopping only the three-axis power unit poor performance. On the other hand, symbol K ₂ and symbol K ₄ indicate the case where the outputs of the three power generation units are set to the same value. Further, reference numeral K _3, the output of the three power generation units indicates the case reaches the maximum output. As described above, the GLC group load distribution unit 10 according to the present embodiment can change the load distribution in various forms according to the change in the power demand.

  As described above, the power generation plan formulation apparatus of the present embodiment registers data related to group definitions, such as group members and restrictions, in the group definition data registration unit 16 and creates a power generation plan based on the registered definitions. . Therefore, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to formulate a suitable power generation plan that takes into account individual group members and restrictions, and it is possible to formulate a power generation plan that is excellent in power generation economy and operational flexibility. It becomes possible.

  Further, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to change the output at the same time by grouping power generation units having a slight performance difference as a virtual GLC group. Thereby, it is possible to perform load distribution with a large apparent load change rate, and it is possible to create a power generation plan with a higher degree of freedom and good operability. This is, for example, an effective load distribution method for backing up the power generation amount when the power generation amount of large-scale solar power generation (mega solar) greatly changes due to a sudden change in weather. For example, this embodiment is effective when collectively creating a power generation plan for a plurality of power generation units such as hydropower, sunlight, and thermal power.

  The group constraint changing unit 7 inputs change data (group constraint data) for temporarily changing the group constraints, and inputs the change data for temporarily changing the group definition. It may be replaced with a changing unit. That is, the change target based on the change data is not limited to the group restriction, but may be extended to the group members. In this case, the group definition changing unit 8 can temporarily change not only the group restrictions included in the group definition data but also the group members included in the group definition data. For example, the number of power generation units belonging to a certain group is temporarily increased or decreased by changing the group definition data.

(Fifth embodiment)
FIG. 14 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a power generation plan formulation device according to the fifth embodiment.

  The power generation plan formulation apparatus in FIG. 14 is replaced with the prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculation unit 22, and the standby facility selection unit 23 in FIG. 1 by using a real-time data input unit 27, an error estimation unit 28, and a processing result notification unit. 29. The processing result notification unit 29 of the present embodiment is an example of a display unit.

  In the present embodiment, the predicted weather data input unit 3 inputs the current predicted weather data to the power generation plan formulation device, whereas the real-time data input unit 27 receives the current measured weather data from each power plant 30 in real time. Acquire and input to the power generation plan development device. The measured weather data of the present embodiment is measured data of the temperature (atmospheric temperature) and seawater temperature (seawater temperature) in the vicinity of the power generation unit. For example, by a measuring instrument installed near the power generation unit at each power plant 30 It is measured. The predicted weather data is an example of the first data, and the measured weather data is an example of the second data. The real-time data input unit 27 further acquires the current output value of the power generation unit and inputs it to the power generation plan formulation device.

  The power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the predicted weather data, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan (first power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. Similarly, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the measured weather data, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 creates a power generation plan (second power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. To do. The first and second power generation plans are stored in the power generation plan data storage unit 15 as power generation plan data.

  The processing result notifying unit 29 refers to the power generation plan data in the power generation plan data storage unit 15 and displays the first and second power generation plans described above on the same screen. For example, a graph indicating a change in the output value of the first power generation plan and a graph indicating a change in the output value of the second power generation plan are displayed on the same coordinates so that the user can compare them. The current output value input from the real-time data input unit 27 may also be displayed at this coordinate. In addition, a graph indicating the temperature change of the first power generation plan (that is, a change in predicted temperature) and a graph indicating the temperature change of the second power generation plan (that is, a change in measured temperature) may be displayed on the same coordinates.

  The error estimation unit 28 calculates a difference between the predicted temperature and the measured temperature, and displays the difference as a temperature error on the screen by the processing result notification unit 29. Thereby, the information on the error between the predicted temperature and the measured temperature can be provided to the user.

  Further, the error estimation unit 28 may have the same functions as the prediction error calculation unit 22 and the standby equipment selection unit 23 of the first embodiment. In this case, the error estimation unit 28 can calculate the error rate and the reserve rate, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 can create the third power generation plan from the first power generation plan based on the reserve rate. On the other hand, the error estimation unit 28 may have the same functions as the prediction error calculation unit 22 and the load distribution calculation unit 24 of the second embodiment. Also in this case, the error estimation unit 28 can calculate the error rate and the reserve rate, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 can create the third power generation plan from the first power generation plan based on the reserve rate.

  The error estimation unit 28 may calculate an error rate between the predicted temperature and the measured temperature, and provide this error rate to the power generation plan creation unit 5. In this case, the power generation plan creation unit 5 may create the third power generation plan by correcting the first power generation plan so that the error rate falls within a predetermined range.

  Moreover, the power generation plan formulation apparatus of this embodiment may correct the first power generation plan based on an input operation from the user who has seen the screen. For example, the user may be able to correct the temperature of the predicted weather data. In this case, the power generation facility performance prediction unit 4 re-predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the predicted weather data, and the power generation plan creation unit 5 re-creates the first power generation plan based on the power generation facility performance data. . Thereby, it becomes possible to create the 3rd power generation plan from the 1st power generation plan based on a user's intention.

  According to the present embodiment, the user can visually recognize the difference between the predicted value in the power generation plan and the real-time measurement value. In addition, if there is an inconvenient difference at this time, the user can quickly respond to this, and the operation of the power generation plan with high stability can be realized.

(Sixth embodiment)
FIG. 15 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a power generation plan formulation device according to the sixth embodiment.

  15 includes a processor 32 such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a main storage device 33 such as a RAM (Random Access Memory), an auxiliary storage device 34 such as an HDD (Hard Disc Drive), A network interface 35 such as a LAN (Local Area Network) board, a device interface 36 such as a memory slot and a memory port, and a bus 37 for connecting these devices to each other are provided. The power generation plan formulation device 31 is, for example, a computer such as a PC (Personal Computer), and includes an input device such as a keyboard and a mouse, and a display device such as an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) monitor.

  In the present embodiment, a power generation plan formulation program for causing a computer to execute information processing of the power generation plan formulation device of any of the first to fifth embodiments is installed in the auxiliary storage device 34. The power generation plan formulation device 31 expands this program in the main storage device 33 and executes it by the processor 32. Thereby, the function of each block shown in FIG. 1, FIG. 4, FIG. 7, FIG. 9 or FIG. 14 is realized in the power generation plan formulation device 31, and the power generation plan described in the first to fifth embodiments is created. It becomes possible. The data generated by this information processing is temporarily stored in the main storage device 33 or stored and saved in the auxiliary storage device 34.

  For example, the power generation plan formulation program can be installed by mounting the external device 38 in which the program is recorded on the device interface 36 and storing the program from the external device 38 into the auxiliary storage device 34. An example of the external device 38 is a computer-readable recording medium or a recording device incorporating such a recording medium. Examples of the recording medium are a CD-ROM and a DVD-ROM, and an example of the recording device is an HDD. Further, the power generation plan formulation program can be installed by downloading the program via the network interface 35, for example.

  According to this embodiment, it becomes possible to implement | achieve the function of the power generation plan formulation apparatus in any one of 1st-5th embodiment with software.

  Although several embodiments have been described above, these embodiments are presented as examples only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. The novel devices, methods, and programs described herein can be implemented in various other forms. In addition, various omissions, substitutions, and changes can be made to the forms of the apparatuses, methods, and programs described in the present specification without departing from the spirit of the invention. The appended claims and their equivalents are intended to include such forms and modifications as fall within the scope and spirit of the invention.

1: Forecast demand data input part, 2: Power generation equipment data input part,
3: Forecast weather data input unit, 4: Power generation facility performance prediction unit, 5: Power generation plan creation unit,
6: group definition data input unit, 7: group constraint change unit, 8: group definition change unit,
9: Virtual GLC group load distribution unit, 10: GLC group load distribution unit,
11: Predicted demand data storage unit, 12: Power generation facility data storage unit,
13: Predictive weather data storage unit, 14: Power generation facility performance data storage unit,
15: Power generation plan data storage unit, 16: Group definition data storage unit,
17: group constraint data storage unit, 21: prediction error input unit,
22: prediction error calculation unit, 23: standby facility selection unit,
24: load distribution calculation unit, 25: supply capability margin addition unit, 26: supply capability notification unit,
27: Real-time data input unit, 28: Error estimation unit, 29: Processing result notification unit,
30: Each power plant, 31: Power generation plan development device, 32: Processor,
33: main storage device, 34: auxiliary storage device, 35: network interface,
36: Device interface, 37: Bus, 38: External device

Claims (10)

A power generation information processing unit that processes information about the performance or group of the power generation facility, and predicts the performance of the power generation facility based on data on the natural environment, or as a definition of the group of the power generation facility, the group A power generation information processing unit for registering data on the power generation equipment belonging to and data on constraints on the group;
Based on the performance of the power generation facility predicted by the power generation information processing unit or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processing unit, a power generation plan creation unit that creates a power generation plan for the power generation facility,
With
The power generation plan creation unit creates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the first data about the natural environment, and generates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the second data about the natural environment. Create a second power generation plan and create a third power generation plan based on the first and second power generation plans, or load distribution for the first group to which the power generation facility having the first performance belongs, and the second performance Selecting at least one of the load distributions for the second group to which the power generation equipment having the above-mentioned power generation facilities, and creating the power generation plan based on the selected load distributions.
Power generation plan development device. An error rate calculation unit that calculates an error rate related to power supply of the first power generation plan and an error rate related to power supply of the second power generation plan;
A reserve rate calculation unit that calculates a reserve rate related to standby of the power generation facility based on the error rate of the first power generation plan and the error rate of the second power generation plan;
The power generation plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the power generation plan creation unit creates the third power generation plan by correcting the first power generation plan based on the reserve ratio.   The power generation plan creation device according to claim 2, wherein the power generation plan creation unit creates the third power generation plan by changing the power generation facility to be standby in the first power generation plan.   The power generation plan creation device according to claim 2, wherein the power generation plan creation unit creates the third power generation plan by changing a load distribution of the power generation facility in the first power generation plan. A margin calculation unit that calculates a margin related to power supply of the power generation facility based on the first and second power generation plans;
The power generation plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the power generation plan creation unit creates the third power generation plan by modifying the first power generation plan so as to satisfy the margin. The power generation information processing unit
A power generation facility performance prediction unit that predicts the performance of the power generation facility based on the data on the power generation facility and the data on the natural environment,
The power generation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the power generation plan creation unit creates the power generation plan based on the performance of the power generation facility predicted by the power generation facility performance prediction unit. .   The power generation plan according to claim 1, wherein the first group is a group to which the power generation equipment having the same or different incremental unit price belongs, and the second group is a group to which the power generation equipment having the same incremental unit price belongs. Formulating device. The power generation information processing unit
An input unit for inputting the definition of the group and registering in the storage unit;
A group constraint changing unit for inputting change data for changing the constraints of the group included in the definition of the group registered in the storage unit;
A group definition changing unit that changes the definition of the group registered in the storage unit based on the change data;
The said power generation plan preparation part is a power generation plan formulation apparatus of Claim 1 or 7 which produces the said power generation plan based on the definition of the said group registered into the said storage part. A power generation information processing unit that processes information about the performance or group of the power generation facility predicts the performance of the power generation facility based on data on the natural environment, or belongs to the group as the definition of the group of power generation facilities Register data about the power generation facility and data about constraints on the group,
The power generation plan creation unit creates a power generation plan for the power generation facility based on the performance of the power generation facility predicted by the power generation information processing unit or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processing unit.
Prepared
The power generation plan creation unit creates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the first data about the natural environment, and generates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the second data about the natural environment. Create a second power generation plan and create a third power generation plan based on the first and second power generation plans, or load distribution for the first group to which the power generation facility having the first performance belongs, and the second performance Selecting at least one of the load distributions for the second group to which the power generation equipment having the above-mentioned power generation facilities, and creating the power generation plan based on the selected load distributions.
Power generation plan formulation method. A power generation information processing unit that processes information about the performance or group of the power generation facility predicts the performance of the power generation facility based on data on the natural environment, or belongs to the group as the definition of the group of power generation facilities Register data about the power generation facility and data about constraints on the group,
The power generation plan creation unit creates a power generation plan for the power generation facility based on the performance of the power generation facility predicted by the power generation information processing unit or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processing unit.
A power generation plan formulation program for causing a computer to execute a power generation plan formulation method comprising:
The power generation plan creation unit creates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the first data about the natural environment, and generates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the second data about the natural environment. Create a second power generation plan and create a third power generation plan based on the first and second power generation plans, or load distribution for the first group to which the power generation facility having the first performance belongs, and the second performance Selecting at least one of the load distributions for the second group to which the power generation equipment having the above-mentioned power generation facilities, and creating the power generation plan based on the selected load distributions.
Power generation plan development program.

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