JP2012010508A - Power generation amount prediction device, power generation amount prediction system, power generation amount prediction method, and power generation amount prediction program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To obtain a power generation amount prediction device, a power generation amount prediction system, a power generation amount prediction method, and a power generation amount prediction program predicting the amount of power generation of a solar battery with high precision.SOLUTION: In a photovoltaic power system 10 making a load or an electrical apparatus operate by power supplied by a power system including power supply from a solar battery, a predicted power generation amount calculation part 40 calculates a predicted value of the power generation amount after prescribed time of the solar battery on the basis of a predicted value of the amount of solar radiation after the prescribed time in a location where the solar battery is installed, a predicted value of air temperature and a specification of the photovoltaic power system 10. Furthermore, the predicted power generation amount calculation part 40 corrects the calculated predicted value on the basis of: a calculated value of past power generation amount of the solar battery which is calculated in the same manner as the predicted value based on the actual value of the past amount of solar radiation and past air temperature and the specification of the photovoltaic power system 10; and an actual value of past power generation amount of the solar battery corresponding to the calculated value.

Description

  The present invention relates to a power generation amount prediction apparatus, a power generation amount prediction method, a power generation amount prediction system, and a power generation amount prediction program.

  In recent years, various systems have been developed that operate electric devices using electric power supplied from solar cells and commercial power systems. Therefore, in order to plan the power demand, it is necessary to accurately predict the power generation amount of the solar cell whose power generation amount varies depending on the temperature and the amount of solar radiation.

  Therefore, in Patent Document 1, the global solar radiation intensity obtained from the atmospheric transmittance, direct solar radiation intensity, and scattered solar radiation intensity measured in advance for each region and weather is obtained, and the global daily solar radiation intensity and the local daily minimum temperature by the weather station are determined. Describes a technique for obtaining a solar cell operating temperature from a solar cell and predicting a power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the solar cell operating temperature.

Japanese Patent No. 2972596

  However, although the technique described in Patent Document 1 predicts the power generation amount of the solar cell, when the predicted power generation amount is compared with the actual power generation amount, there is a difference between the predicted value of the power generation amount and the actual power generation amount. May occur.

  The present invention has been made in view of such circumstances, and provides a power generation amount prediction device, a power generation amount prediction system, a power generation amount prediction method, and a power generation amount prediction program for accurately predicting the power generation amount of a solar cell. The purpose is to do.

  In order to solve the above problems, the power generation amount prediction apparatus of the present invention employs the following means.

  That is, the power generation amount prediction device of the present invention is a power generation amount prediction device in a solar power generation system that operates a load that is an electrical device by power supplied from an electric power system including at least power supply from a solar cell, Based on the predicted value of solar radiation after a predetermined time at the point where the solar cell is installed, the temperature information, and the specifications of the solar power generation system, the predicted value of the power generation after the predetermined time of the solar battery is calculated. The prediction means and the prediction value calculated by the prediction means are similar to the prediction value of the power generation amount by the prediction means based on the past actual measurement value of solar radiation amount, the actual measurement value of temperature, and the specifications of the solar power generation system. A correction to be corrected based on the calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell calculated in the above and the actually measured value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculated value. It includes a stage, a.

  According to the present invention, after the predetermined time of the solar cell based on the predicted value of the solar radiation amount and the temperature information after the predetermined time at the point where the solar cell is installed, and the specification of the solar power generation system, by the prediction means. The predicted value of the power generation amount is calculated. In addition, calculation of the predicted value of the electric power generation amount by a solar cell is performed using the method (JIS C 8907) prescribed | regulated by Japanese Industrial Standard, for example. Moreover, the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation after a predetermined time is obtained from, for example, a comprehensive numerical prediction system SYNFOS (registered trademark) developed by the Japan Weather Association. In the present invention, the temperature information after a predetermined time may be obtained as a predicted temperature value from, for example, a comprehensive numerical prediction system SYNFOS (registered trademark) developed by the Japan Weather Association, You may read the actual measured value of the temperature at the past date and time corresponding to the predetermined time from the database that stores the actual measured value of the temperature as the temperature information.

However, the predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar cell does not necessarily match the actual power generation amount. Therefore, the prediction value calculated by the prediction unit is corrected by the correction unit based on the calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell and the actual measurement value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculated value. Is done. In addition, the calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell is based on the past measurement value of the solar radiation amount, the actual measurement value of the temperature, and the specification of the solar power generation system, as well as the predicted value of the power generation amount by the prediction unit, for example, It is calculated using a method (JIS C 8907) defined by Japanese Industrial Standards.

  That is, correcting the predicted value of the power generation amount based on the past calculation value of the power generation amount and the actual measurement value of the past power generation amount is, for example, the calculation of the power generation amount by the method using the method (JIS C 8907). This is to eliminate the error between the result and the actual measurement value of the power generation amount.

  From the above, the present invention can predict the power generation amount of the solar cell with high accuracy.

  Further, according to the present invention, the correction unit calculates the predicted value calculated by the prediction unit as a past calculation value of the power generation amount of the solar cell and a past power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculation value. You may correct | amend by the correction formula derived | led-out based on the measured value.

  According to the present invention, the predicted value calculated by the predicting unit by the correcting unit includes the calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell and the actual measured value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculated value. Therefore, the power generation amount of the solar cell can be easily predicted with high accuracy.

  Further, the present invention corrects the predicted value of the solar radiation amount after the predetermined time based on the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount and the actual measured value of the past solar radiation amount corresponding to the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount. A solar radiation amount correcting means for performing the prediction, the predicting means predicting the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar cell using the predicted value of the solar radiation amount corrected by the solar radiation amount correcting means. Good.

  According to the present invention, the predicted value of the solar radiation amount after a predetermined time is obtained by the solar radiation amount correcting means so that the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount and the measured value of the past solar radiation amount corresponding to the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount. It is corrected based on. Thereby, the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation after a predetermined time becomes a value closer to the actual measurement value. And a prediction means estimates the electric power generation amount after the predetermined time of a solar cell using the corrected predicted value of solar radiation.

  From the above, the present invention can predict the power generation amount of the solar cell with high accuracy.

  Further, the present invention uses the temperature information after the predetermined time as a predicted value of the temperature after the predetermined time, and the predicted value of the temperature corresponds to the predicted value of the past temperature and the predicted value of the past temperature. Temperature correction means for correcting the temperature based on the actual measured value of the past temperature, and the prediction means uses the predicted value of the temperature corrected by the temperature correction means, after the predetermined time of the solar cell. The amount of power generation may be predicted.

  According to the present invention, the temperature information after a predetermined time is set as the predicted temperature value after the predetermined time, and the predicted temperature value after the predetermined time is converted into the predicted value of the past temperature and the past temperature by the temperature correction means. Is corrected based on the actual measured value of the past temperature corresponding to the predicted value. Thereby, the predicted value of the temperature after a predetermined time becomes a value closer to the actually measured value. And a prediction means estimates the electric power generation amount after the predetermined time of a solar cell using the corrected predicted value of temperature.

  From the above, the present invention can predict the power generation amount of the solar cell with high accuracy.

  Further, according to the present invention, the solar radiation amount correcting means uses a different correction formula depending on the weather based on the actual measured value of the past solar radiation amount and the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount corresponding to the actual measured value, The predicted value of the solar radiation amount may be corrected.

  According to the present invention, the solar radiation amount correcting means uses a correction formula that differs depending on the weather based on the actual measurement value of the past solar radiation amount and the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount corresponding to the actual measurement value, and the solar radiation amount. The predicted value of is corrected. Thereby, since this invention can correct | amend this predicted value with the correction formula according to the weather corresponding to a predicted value, it can estimate the electric power generation amount of a solar cell more accurately.

  Further, according to the present invention, the temperature correction means uses a correction formula that is different depending on the weather based on the past measured value of the temperature and the predicted value of the temperature corresponding to the measured value. The predicted value may be corrected.

  According to the present invention, the predicted temperature value is calculated by the temperature correction means using a different correction formula according to the weather based on the measured value of the past temperature and the predicted value of the past temperature corresponding to the measured value. It is corrected. Thereby, since this invention can correct | amend this predicted value with the correction formula according to the weather corresponding to a predicted value, it can estimate the electric power generation amount of a solar cell more accurately.

  In addition, the present invention provides a power generation amount predicted value corrected by a power generation amount prediction device that calculates a power generation amount prediction value using an uncorrected predicted value of solar radiation amount and a predicted temperature value, and corrected solar radiation. Among the predicted power generation values corrected by the power generation amount prediction device that calculates the predicted power generation amount using the predicted value of the amount and the predicted value of the temperature, which predicted value is the actual measurement of the power generation amount of the solar cell. You may further provide the determination means which determines whether it is near a value.

  According to the present invention, the determination means calculates the predicted value of the power generation amount using the uncorrected predicted value of the solar radiation amount and the predicted value of the temperature, and corrects the predicted value of the generated power amount. The predicted value of the power generation amount is calculated using the predicted value of the solar radiation amount and the predicted value of the air temperature, and the predicted value of the power generation amount is corrected. It is determined whether a predicted value of a near power generation amount can be obtained.

  From the above, the present invention can predict the power generation amount of the solar cell with higher accuracy.

  On the other hand, in order to solve the above problems, the power generation amount prediction system of the present invention employs the following means.

  That is, in the power generation amount prediction system of the present invention, the power generation amount prediction device described above is provided at a remote location with respect to the solar power generation system, and the power generation amount prediction device and the solar power generation system are connected via a communication line. Power generation amount prediction system that can communicate with the solar power generation system, the solar power generation system to the power generation amount prediction device, the measured value of the amount of solar radiation at the point where the solar cell is installed via the communication line The measured value of the temperature and the measured value of the power generation amount of the solar cell are transmitted, and the power generation amount predicting device transmits the measured value of the solar radiation amount transmitted from the solar power generation system, the measured value of the temperature, and the solar power. The predicted value of the power generation amount corrected by the correction means using the measured value of the power generation amount of the battery is transmitted to the solar power generation system via the communication line.

  According to the present invention, the power generation amount prediction device described above is not included in the solar power generation system, and the power generation amount prediction device and the solar power generation system can communicate with each other via a communication line. Then, the photovoltaic power generation system transmits the measured amount of solar radiation, the measured value of the air temperature, and the measured value of the power generation amount of the solar cell to the power generation amount prediction device via the communication line. To do.

  On the other hand, the power generation amount prediction device is a predicted value of the power generation amount corrected by the correction means using the actual measurement value of the solar radiation amount, the actual measurement value of the air temperature, and the actual measurement value of the solar cell power generation amount transmitted from the solar power generation system. Is transmitted to the photovoltaic power generation system via a communication line.

  From the above, the present invention can predict with high accuracy the power generation amount of the solar cell of the photovoltaic power generation system in a remote place.

  Moreover, in order to solve the said subject, the power generation amount prediction method of this invention employ | adopts the following means.

  That is, the power generation amount prediction method of the present invention is a power generation amount prediction method in a solar power generation system that operates a load that is an electrical device by power supplied from an electric power system including at least power supply from a solar cell, Based on the predicted value of solar radiation after a predetermined time at the point where the solar cell is installed, the temperature information, and the specifications of the solar power generation system, the predicted value of the power generation after the predetermined time of the solar battery is calculated. Based on the first step and the predicted value calculated in the first step, the prediction of the power generation amount by the prediction unit based on the past actual measurement value of solar radiation amount, the actual measurement value of air temperature, and the specifications of the photovoltaic power generation system. The second correction is made based on the calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell calculated in the same manner as the value and the actual measured value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculated value. Including the extent, the.

  Thereby, this invention can estimate the electric power generation amount of a solar cell with high precision.

  Moreover, in order to solve the said subject, the power generation amount prediction program of this invention employ | adopts the following means.

  That is, the power generation amount prediction program of the present invention is a power generation amount prediction program in a solar power generation system that operates a load that is an electrical device by power supplied from an electric power system including at least power supply from a solar battery, In addition, based on the predicted value of solar radiation after a predetermined time and temperature information at the point where the solar cell is installed and the specifications of the solar power generation system, the predicted power generation amount of the solar cell after the predetermined time The prediction means calculated by the prediction means, the predicted value calculated by the prediction means, based on the actual measurement value of the past solar radiation amount and the actual measurement value of the temperature and the specifications of the photovoltaic power generation system, The calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell calculated in the same manner as the predicted value, and the actual power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculated value. And correcting means for correcting, based on the value, to the execution.

  Thereby, this invention can estimate the electric power generation amount of a solar cell with high precision.

  The present invention has an excellent effect of predicting the power generation amount of a solar cell with high accuracy.

It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the solar energy power generation system which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram for demonstrating the function of the energy management apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram for demonstrating the function of the prediction electric power generation amount calculation part which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure required for description of derivation | leading-out of each correction type | formula which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of a process of the electric power generation amount prediction program which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram for demonstrating the function of the prediction electric power generation amount calculation part which concerns on 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of a process of the electric power generation amount prediction program which concerns on 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram for demonstrating the function of the prediction electric power generation amount calculation part which concerns on 3rd Embodiment of this invention. It is a graph required for description which determines correction | amendment of the electric power generation amount predicted value which concerns on 3rd Embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram for demonstrating the function of the prediction electric power generation amount calculation part which concerns on 4th Embodiment of this invention.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of a power generation amount prediction apparatus, a power generation amount prediction system, a power generation amount prediction method, and a power generation amount prediction program according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[First Embodiment]
FIG. 1 shows a configuration of a photovoltaic power generation system 10 according to the first embodiment.

  The solar power generation system 10 is an electric device that is installed outdoors and includes solar cells 12 that convert sunlight into DC power and output the power, and that is operated by power supplied from the solar cells 12 and the commercial power system 14. A load 16 is provided. In the following description, the load 16 does not indicate each electric device that consumes power, but indicates a group of a plurality of electric devices. For example, the electrical devices are grouped by the same type or the same model as each lighting device or each air conditioning device, and are handled as the load 16. Moreover, although the photovoltaic power generation system 10 according to the first embodiment includes a plurality (n) of loads 16, the present invention is not limited thereto, and the load 16 may be one. In addition, the power system only needs to include power supply from at least a solar cell, and only power supply from the solar cell, or power supply from the solar cell and power from other commercial power systems such as nuclear power and wind power. It may be a combination with supply. In the first embodiment, the commercial power system 14 is used in addition to the solar battery 12 as an example of the power supply source to the solar power generation system 10.

  Further, the solar power generation system 10 includes a power conditioner 20, a watt hour meter 22, an energy management device 24, and a notification device 26.

  The power conditioner 20 measures the power generation amount of the solar cell 12 while converting the output of the solar cell 12 from DC power to AC power. The power conditioner 20 is connected to a solar radiation meter 30 that measures the amount of solar radiation outdoors where the solar cells 12 are installed, and a thermometer 32 that measures the outdoor temperature where the solar cells 12 are installed. .

  The amount of solar radiation measured by the solar radiation meter 30 (hereinafter referred to as “measurement value of solar radiation amount”) is transmitted to the energy management device 24 via the power conditioner 30 together with the measured date and time. Further, the temperature measured by the thermometer 32 (hereinafter referred to as “temperature measured value”), the measured date and time, and the power conditioner 30 are transmitted to the energy management device 24.

  The watt hour meter 22 is provided for each load 16 and measures the power consumed (used) by the load 16.

  In the solar power generation system 10 according to the first embodiment, each load 16 is connected to the solar cell 12 via the power conditioner 20 and the watt hour meter 22 and via the watt hour meter 22. It is connected to the commercial power system 14. For this reason, the watt-hour meter 22 adds and measures the electric power supplied from the solar cell 12 and the commercial power system 14 consumed by each load 16.

  The energy management device 24 executes monitoring of the amount of power generated by the solar cell 12 and the power consumption of the load 16 in the solar power generation system 10 and causes the notification device 26 to notify the monitoring result. Specifically, the energy management device 24 predicts and plans the amount of power generated by the solar battery 12 and monitors whether or not the power consumption of the load 16 exceeds a predetermined target power as an upper limit of the power consumption of the load 16. In addition, information indicating the power consumption of the load 16 is sequentially stored and managed to be output to the notification device 26. Moreover, the power consumption of the load 16 here means the total amount of power consumed by the plurality of loads 16 provided in the solar power generation system 10.

The notification device 26 records various information output from the energy management device 24 on an image display device (for example, LCD (Liquid Crystal Display)) as an image, and records the various information on a recording medium (for example, paper). A printer for outputting the information and a speaker for outputting the various information by voice or the like.
FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram relating to the prediction and planning of the power generation amount performed by the energy management device 24 according to the first embodiment.

  As shown in the figure, the energy management device 24 includes a predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 and a planned power generation amount calculation unit 42.

  The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 is a predicted value of solar radiation after a predetermined time (for example, after 1 to 33 hours) at a point where the solar cell 12 is installed (hereinafter, referred to as a “predicted solar radiation amount”) and the said. Based on the temperature information after a predetermined time and the specifications of the solar power generation system 10, the amount of power generated by the solar cell 12 after the predetermined time is predicted.

  In the present embodiment, a predicted value of temperature after a predetermined time (hereinafter referred to as “temperature predicted value”) is used as the temperature information after a predetermined time.

  The predicted solar radiation amount and the predicted temperature value after a predetermined time are input to the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 from the weather numerical prediction system 50 that predicts the weather by numerical calculation. Note that the photovoltaic power generation system 10 according to the first embodiment uses the comprehensive numerical prediction system SYNFOS (registered trademark) developed by the Japan Weather Association as an example of the weather numerical prediction system 50, but is not limited thereto. Instead, other weather numerical prediction systems may be used as the weather numerical prediction system 50.

  The specifications of the solar power generation system 10 include, for example, the installation location of the solar cell 12, the capacity of the solar cell 12, solar cell module data indicating the characteristics of each manufacturer of the solar cell 12, and the method of connecting the solar cells 12 ( A solar cell array configuration indicating a series or parallel), a mounting angle of the solar cell 12, a mounting azimuth angle of the solar cell 12, a power loss due to the power conditioner 20, a power loss as the solar power generation system 10, and the like, and magnetic storage It is memorize | stored in the specification memory | storage part 51 comprised with an apparatus or a semiconductor memory device.

  Then, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 uses, for example, a method (JIS C 8907) stipulated in Japanese Industrial Standards to predict the power generation amount of the solar cell 12 after a predetermined time (hereinafter, “predicted power generation amount”). ").

  On the other hand, the planned power generation amount calculation unit 42 is based on the past solar radiation amount and temperature at the point where the solar cell 12 is installed and the specifications of the solar power generation system 10 before the prediction by the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40. Thus, the amount of power generated by the solar battery 12 is planned.

  The past solar radiation amount and temperature are input from the past solar radiation amount and temperature database 52 to the planned power generation amount calculation unit 42. The photovoltaic power generation system 10 according to the first embodiment includes a standard weather database METPV based on research results of the Japan Weather Association and the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) as an example of the database 52. -3 is used, but the present invention is not limited to this, and another database may be used as the database 52. In addition, as the past solar radiation amount and temperature, an average value of actually measured values for several days up to the previous day may be used, or an average value of several days of solar radiation amount and temperature indicated by the database 52 may be used.

  And the plan electric power generation amount calculation part 42 uses the method (JIS C 8907) prescribed | regulated by Japanese Industrial Standard, for example, the plan electric power generation amount of the solar cell 12 (henceforth "the plan electric power generation amount"). Is calculated. Further, in the first embodiment, the past solar radiation amount and temperature in fine weather are used as the past solar radiation amount and temperature. That is, the planned power generation amount is an expected value of the power generation amount obtained from the solar cell 12 based on the past solar radiation amount and temperature.

  The calculated predicted power generation amount and the planned power generation amount are notified to the user by the notification device 26.

  FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram illustrating functions of the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the first embodiment.

  As shown in the figure, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 includes a data storage unit 60, a solar radiation amount correction formula derivation unit 62, an air temperature correction formula derivation unit 64, a power generation amount correction formula derivation unit 66, and a power generation amount prediction unit 68. I have.

  The data storage unit 60 is composed of a magnetic storage device, a semiconductor storage device, or the like, and a past solar radiation amount predicted value at a point where the solar cell 12 is installed, and a past solar radiation amount corresponding to the solar radiation amount predicted value. The actual measured value, the past temperature predicted value at the point where the solar cell 12 is installed, and the past temperature measured value corresponding to the temperature predicted value are stored. Further, the data storage unit 60 also stores a past actual power generation amount of the solar cell 12 (hereinafter referred to as “power generation actual value”).

  The weather numerical prediction system 50 transmits the solar radiation amount prediction value and the temperature prediction value at predetermined time intervals (every hour in the comprehensive numerical prediction system SYNFOS (registered trademark)). Therefore, the data storage unit 60 stores the predicted solar radiation amount and the predicted temperature value for each predetermined time. Moreover, the past solar radiation amount actual measurement value corresponding to the solar radiation amount predicted value means that the predicted date and time of the solar radiation amount predicted value and the actual solar radiation amount actual measurement date and time are the same or substantially the same. Similarly, the past measured temperature value corresponding to the predicted temperature value means that the predicted date and time of the predicted temperature value and the measured date and time of the measured temperature value are the same or substantially the same.

  In the first embodiment, the predicted solar radiation amount and the actually measured solar radiation value, and the predicted temperature value and the actually measured temperature value stored in the data storage unit 60 are data in a time zone from sunrise to sunset. Further, the predicted solar radiation amount and the actual solar radiation amount, and the predicted temperature value and the actual temperature value stored in the data storage unit 60 are divided into groups (for example, sunny, cloudy, rainy or snowy) (grouped). To be remembered). The weather is determined from, for example, the solar radiation time and precipitation every predetermined time (every hour).

  The solar radiation amount correction formula deriving unit 62 derives a correction formula based on the past predicted solar radiation amount stored in the data storage unit 60 and the past actual solar radiation amount measured value.

  FIG. 4A is a graph plotting the predicted amount of solar radiation and the measured value of the amount of solar radiation at the same date and time with the past predicted amount of solar radiation as the x-axis and the past measured amount of solar radiation as the y-axis. Here, if there is no difference between the predicted amount of solar radiation and the actual value of solar radiation, the plotted values have a relationship of y = x.

  However, since the predicted amount of solar radiation is a value predicted for each predetermined region (for example, every 1 km square), the estimated amount of solar radiation is the actual amount of solar radiation that is actually measured at the place where the solar cell 12 is installed. An error occurs between them. Therefore, the solar radiation amount correction formula deriving unit 62 derives a solar radiation amount correction formula for correcting the error.

  Specifically, the solar radiation amount correction formula deriving unit 62 derives an approximate formula from a plurality of plotted values shown in FIG. Then, the approximate expression is derived again by excluding a value (value indicated by ◯ in FIG. 4A) that is significantly different from the derived approximate expression, and the approximate expression is used as the solar radiation amount correction expression.

ａ，ｂは、定数であり、日射量予測値をｘに代入することで、補正された日射量予測値ｙが算出される。 An example of the solar radiation amount correction formula derived from the graph shown in FIG.

a and b are constants, and the corrected solar radiation amount predicted value y is calculated by substituting the solar radiation amount predicted value into x.

  The solar radiation amount correction formula deriving unit 62 derives a different solar radiation amount correction formula depending on the weather based on the predicted solar radiation amount and the actual solar radiation amount grouped for each weather.

  In the first embodiment, a linear function is used as an approximate expression. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and a multi-order function such as a quadratic function or a polynomial may be used. Also, any method such as a least square method may be used as a method for deriving the approximate expression.

  Furthermore, the value excluded in order to derive the approximate expression again is, for example, a value that deviates by more than a predetermined magnitude from the standard deviation of a plurality of plotted values. In addition, the solar radiation amount correction formula may be derived by repeating the derivation of the approximate expression excluding such a large deviation value a plurality of times, or a value having a large deviation from the group of a plurality of plotted values. You may derive | require the approximate expression used as a solar radiation amount correction | amendment formula after removing beforehand. Moreover, it is preferable not to consider in calculating | requiring an approximate expression about the solar radiation amount predicted value and the solar radiation amount actual value at night when the solar cell 12 cannot generate electric power.

  In addition, the solar radiation amount correction formula deriving unit 62 according to the first embodiment derives the solar radiation amount correction formula as an example once a day at a predetermined time (for example, sunrise time), and calculates the solar radiation amount correction derived last time. The formula is updated to the newly derived solar radiation amount correction formula. However, the formula is not limited to this. For example, the formula may be updated every predetermined time (for example, every three hours). If the difference between the constants a and b of the previously calculated solar radiation correction formula and the constants a ′ and b ′ of the newly derived solar radiation correction formula exceeds a predetermined upper limit value, a new solar radiation correction is performed. The upper limit value may be used as the constants a ′ and b ′ in the equation. In addition, when the number of predicted solar radiation amounts and the actual measured amount of solar radiation is small (when it is equal to or less than a predetermined number), initial values (for example, a = 1, b = 0) are set to the constants a and b of the solar radiation amount correction formula. It may be used.

  The temperature correction formula deriving unit 64 derives a correction formula based on past temperature predicted values and past temperature actual measurement values stored in the data storage unit 60.

  FIG. 4B is a graph plotting the predicted temperature value and the measured temperature value at the same date and time with the past predicted temperature value as the x-axis and the past measured temperature value as the y-axis. Here, if there is no difference between the predicted temperature value and the actually measured temperature value, the plotted values have a relationship of y = x.

  However, since the predicted temperature value is a value predicted for each predetermined region (for example, every 1 km square), the predicted temperature value is between the measured temperature value that is actually measured at the place where the solar cell 12 is actually installed. An error occurs. Therefore, the temperature correction formula deriving unit 64 derives a temperature correction formula for correcting the error.

  Specifically, the temperature correction formula deriving unit 64 derives an approximate formula from a plurality of plotted values shown in FIG. Then, the approximate expression is derived again by excluding a value (value indicated by ◯ in FIG. 4B) that is greatly deviated from the derived approximate expression, and the approximate expression is used as the temperature correction expression.

ａ，ｂは、定数であり、気温予測値をｘに代入することで、補正された気温予測値ｙが算出される。 An example of the temperature correction formula derived from the graph shown in FIG.

a and b are constants, and the corrected predicted temperature value y is calculated by substituting the predicted temperature value into x.

  The temperature correction formula deriving unit 64 derives different temperature correction formulas according to the weather based on the predicted temperature value and the actual temperature measurement value grouped for each weather.

  In the first embodiment, a linear function is used as an approximate expression. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and a multi-order function such as a quadratic function or a polynomial may be used. Also, any method such as a least square method may be used as a method for deriving the approximate expression.

  Furthermore, the value excluded in order to derive the approximate expression again is, for example, a value that deviates by more than a predetermined magnitude from the standard deviation of a plurality of plotted values. Further, the temperature correction formula may be derived by repeating the derivation of the approximate expression excluding such a large deviation value a plurality of times, or a value having a large deviation from the group of a plurality of plotted values in advance may be derived. After the exclusion, an approximate expression that is a temperature correction expression may be derived. In addition, it is preferable not to consider the estimated temperature value and the measured temperature value at night when the solar cell 12 cannot generate power in deriving the approximate expression.

  In addition, the temperature correction formula deriving unit 64 according to the first embodiment derives the temperature correction formula as an example once a day at a predetermined time (for example, sunrise time), and newly calculates the temperature correction formula derived last time. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and may be updated every predetermined time (for example, every 3 hours). In addition, when the difference between the constants c and d of the temperature correction formula derived previously and the constants c ′ and d ′ of the newly derived temperature correction formula exceeds a predetermined upper limit value, the constants of the new temperature correction formula The upper limit values may be used as c ′ and d ′. Further, when the number of predicted temperature values and measured temperature values is small (when the number is less than a predetermined number), initial values (for example, c = 1, d = 0) may be used as constants c and d of the temperature correction formula. Good.

  The power generation amount correction formula deriving unit 66 is a past power generation amount actual value stored in the data storage unit 60, and a power generation amount calculation value calculated from the past solar radiation amount actual measurement value and the past temperature actual measurement value (hereinafter, A correction formula based on “power generation amount calculation value”) is derived.

（３）式において、Ｅ_Ｐｍは発電量（ｋＷｈ）、Ｋ_（Ｔ）は係数、Ｐ_ＡＳは太陽電池１２の仕様（太陽電池１２パネルの特性及び枚数等）から決まる値、Ｈ_Ａｍは日射量（ｋＷ／ｍ^２）、Ｇ_ｓは標準日射強度（ｋＷ／ｍ^２）である。ここで、Ｋ_（Ｔ）は、気温の関数であるため、気温実測値から求められる。また、Ｐ_ＡＳは仕様記憶部５１に記憶されている太陽電池１２の仕様から求められる。そして、Ｈ_Ａｍに日射量実測値を代入することによって、発電量Ｅ_Ｐｍが算出される。 The power generation amount calculation value is calculated by, for example, equation (3) using a method (JIS C 8907) defined in Japanese Industrial Standards.

In Equation (3), E _Pm is the amount of power generation (kWh), K _(T) is a coefficient, P _AS is a value determined from the specifications of the solar cell 12 (such as the characteristics and number of panels of the solar cell 12 panel), and H _Am is the amount of solar radiation. (KW / m ² ), G _s is the standard solar radiation intensity (kW / m ² ). Here, since K _(T) is a function of the temperature, it is obtained from the measured temperature value. Further, P _AS is obtained from the specifications of the solar cell 12 stored in the specification storage unit 51. Then, by substituting the amount of solar radiation measured values in H _Am, generation amount E _Pm is calculated.

  FIG. 4C is a graph in which the past power generation amount calculated value is the x axis, the past power generation amount actual measurement value is the y axis, and the power generation amount calculated value and the power generation amount actual measurement value at the same date and time are plotted. Here, if there is no difference between the power generation amount calculation value and the power generation amount actual measurement value, the plotted values have a relationship of y = x.

  However, among the values used for calculating the power generation amount calculation value, the difference between the actual solar radiation amount to the solar cell 12 and the temperature of the solar cell 12 may occur in the actual solar radiation amount measurement value and the actual temperature measurement value. is there. Further, as for the values stored in the specification storage unit 51, the difference between the actual value of the solar cell module data indicating the capacity of the solar cell 12 and the characteristics of each manufacturer of the solar cell 12, and the mounting angle of the solar cell 12 In addition, there may be an error in azimuth and an error in each power loss. Further, the sunlight receiving surface of the solar cell 12 may be contaminated or deteriorated. Due to these reasons, an error may occur between the power generation amount calculated value and the power generation amount actual measurement value.

  For this reason, the predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar cell 12 (hereinafter referred to as “power generation predicted value”) does not necessarily match the actual power generation amount. Therefore, the power generation amount correction formula deriving unit 66 derives a power generation amount correction formula for correcting the error.

  Specifically, the power generation amount correction formula deriving unit 66 derives an approximate formula from a plurality of plotted values shown in FIG. Then, the approximate expression is derived again by excluding a value (value indicated by ◯ in FIG. 4C) that is greatly deviated from the derived approximate expression, and the approximate expression is used as a power generation amount correction expression.

ｅ，ｆは、定数であり、詳細を後述する発電量予測値をｘに代入することで、補正された発電量予測値ｙが算出される。 An example of the power generation amount correction formula derived from the graph shown in FIG.

e and f are constants, and a corrected power generation amount predicted value y is calculated by substituting a power generation amount prediction value, details of which will be described later, into x.

  In the first embodiment, a linear function is used as an approximate expression. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and a multi-order function such as a quadratic function or a polynomial may be used. Also, any method such as a least square method may be used as a method for deriving the approximate expression.

  Furthermore, the value excluded in order to derive the approximate expression again is, for example, a value that deviates by more than a predetermined magnitude from the standard deviation of a plurality of plotted values. Further, by repeating the derivation of the approximate expression excluding such a large deviation value a plurality of times, a power generation amount correction expression may be derived, or a value having a large deviation from a group of a plurality of plotted values may be obtained. After excluding in advance, an approximate expression that is a power generation amount correction expression may be derived. Further, as a value indicating a case where the power generation amount is instantaneously large, a moving average value may be used instead of the value.

  In addition, the power generation amount correction formula deriving unit 66 according to the first embodiment derives the power generation amount correction formula as an example once a day at a predetermined time (for example, sunrise time), and the power generation amount correction derived last time is derived. The formula is updated to a newly derived power generation amount correction formula. By the way, since the constant of the power generation amount correction formula is considered to change with the aging of the solar battery 12, the rate at which the constant changes is considered not to be large compared to the constants of the solar radiation correction formula and the temperature correction formula. Therefore, the power generation amount correction formula may be updated less frequently than the daily frequency correction formula and the temperature correction formula update frequency, for example, every month.

  When the difference between the constants e and f of the power generation amount correction equation derived previously and the constants e ′ and f ′ of the newly generated power generation correction equation exceeds a predetermined upper limit value, a new power generation amount correction is performed. The upper limit values may be used as the constants e ′ and f ′ in the equation. In addition, when the number of power generation amount calculation values and power generation amount actual measurement values is small (less than a predetermined number), initial values (for example, e = 1, f = 0) are set to constants e and f of the power generation amount correction formula. It may be used.

  Then, the power generation amount prediction unit 68 performs prediction of the power generation amount of the solar cell 12 (hereinafter referred to as “power generation amount prediction process”).

  With reference to FIG. 5, the power generation amount prediction process performed by the power generation amount prediction unit 68 according to the first embodiment will be described. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a process flow of the power generation amount prediction program executed when the power generation amount prediction process is performed, and the program is stored in advance in a predetermined area of a storage unit (not shown). In addition, this program is performed for every time (for example, every hour) predetermined as time for estimating the electric power generation amount of the solar cell 12 as an example.

  First, in step 100, the system waits until the solar radiation amount prediction value and the temperature prediction value after a predetermined time (for example, 24 hours later) at the point where the solar cell 12 is installed are received from the weather numerical prediction system 50. . Moreover, the information (henceforth "weather forecast information") which shows the weather forecast after the said predetermined time is acquired with reception of the solar radiation amount predicted value and temperature predicted value. In addition, the acquisition source of weather forecast information is not specifically limited, For example, you may acquire from the information which the Meteorological Agency distributes.

  In the next step 102, the received solar radiation amount predicted value and the predicted temperature value are stored in the data storage unit 60.

  In the next step 104, the solar radiation amount predicted value received in step 100 is corrected based on the past solar radiation amount actual measurement value and the past solar radiation amount predicted value corresponding to the solar radiation amount actual measurement value. That is, in this step, the solar radiation amount predicted value is substituted for x in the solar radiation amount correction formula shown in equation (1), and the obtained result y is acquired as the corrected solar radiation amount predicted value. Note that the solar radiation amount correction formula used in this step is a correction formula according to the weather forecast (sunny, cloudy, rainy, snow, etc.) indicated by the weather forecast information acquired in step 100 from among different correction formulas depending on the weather. Select an expression to use.

  In the next step 106, the predicted temperature value received in step 100 is corrected based on the past measured temperature value and the past predicted temperature value corresponding to the measured temperature value. In other words, in this step, the predicted temperature value is substituted for x in the temperature correction formula shown in Formula (1), and the obtained result y is acquired as the corrected temperature predicted value. Note that the temperature correction formula used in this step is a correction formula corresponding to the weather forecast (sunny, cloudy, rainy, snow, etc.) indicated by the weather forecast information acquired in step 100 from among different correction formulas depending on the weather. Select and use.

  In the flowchart shown in FIG. 5, the temperature predicted value is corrected after correcting the solar radiation predicted value, but after correcting the temperature predicted value, the solar radiation predicted value is corrected. Also good.

In the next step 108, the power generation amount of the solar cell 12 after the predetermined time is determined based on the predicted solar radiation amount corrected in step 104, the predicted temperature value corrected in step 106, and the specifications of the solar power generation system 10. Predict. In this step, the predicted power generation amount of the solar cell 12 is calculated using the calculation formula shown in the equation (3), similarly to the method of obtaining the past power generation amount calculation value. Specifically, in the process of step 108, the value of K _(T) is obtained from the corrected predicted temperature value, and the value of P _AS is obtained from the specification of the solar cell 12 stored in the specification storage unit 51 and corrected. by substituting the solar radiation amount prediction value H _Am, it predicts the amount of electric power generated by the solar battery 12 by calculating the amount of power generation E _Pm.

  The calculation formula for calculating the predicted power generation amount is the same as the calculation formula for calculating the power generation amount calculation value for deriving the power generation amount correction formula. The error from the actual measured value is eliminated.

  In the next step 110, the power generation amount predicted in step 108 is calculated from the solar radiation actual measurement value, the air temperature actual measurement value, the solar power generation system 10 power generation calculation value, and the power generation calculation value. It correct | amends based on the electric power generation actual value of the solar cell 12 corresponding to. That is, in this step, the power generation amount predicted value of the solar cell 12 acquired in step 108 is substituted for x in the power generation amount correction formula shown in the equation (4), and the obtained result y is corrected power generation amount predicted value after correction. Get as.

  In the next step 112, the corrected power generation amount predicted value obtained in step 110 is stored in the data storage unit 60, and this program ends. The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 may output the power generation amount predicted value after correction of the solar battery 12 to the notification device 26 so as to notify the notification device 26 of it.

  As described above, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the first embodiment is a solar radiation amount prediction value and a temperature prediction value after a predetermined time at the point where the solar cell 12 is installed, and the solar power generation system 10. Based on the specifications, the predicted power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar cell 12 is calculated. Then, the power generation amount prediction value is corrected by a correction formula derived based on the past power generation amount calculation value of the solar cell 12 and the past power generation amount actual measurement value of the solar cell 12 corresponding to the power generation amount calculation value. Is done. Note that the predicted power generation amount of the solar cell 12 and the past power generation amount calculation value are calculated using a similar method, for example, a method defined in Japanese Industrial Standards (JIS C 8907).

  That is, correcting the power generation prediction value with a correction formula derived based on the past power generation amount calculation value and the past power generation amount actual measurement value is, for example, power generation by a method using the above method (JIS C 8907). This is to eliminate the error between the amount calculation result and the actual power generation amount measurement value.

  From the above, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the first embodiment can predict the power generation amount of the solar cell 12 with high accuracy.

  The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the first embodiment is based on a predicted amount of solar radiation after a predetermined time based on a past predicted amount of solar radiation and a past measured amount of solar radiation corresponding to the predicted amount of solar radiation. To correct. Further, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 corrects the temperature predicted value after a predetermined time based on the past temperature predicted value and the past temperature actually measured value corresponding to the temperature predicted value.

  Thereby, the solar radiation amount predicted value and the temperature predicted value after a predetermined time become closer to the actually measured values. The power generation amount prediction value is calculated based on the corrected solar radiation amount prediction value, the corrected temperature prediction value, and the specifications of the solar power generation system 10.

  From the above, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the first embodiment can predict the power generation amount of the solar cell with high accuracy.

[Second Embodiment]
Hereinafter, a second embodiment of the present invention will be described.

  FIG. 6 shows a configuration of the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the second embodiment. In FIG. 6, the same components as those in FIG. 3 are denoted by the same reference numerals as those in FIG. Moreover, since the structure of the solar power generation system 10 and the energy management apparatus 24 which concerns on this 2nd Embodiment is the same as that of FIG. 1, 2, the description is abbreviate | omitted.

  Unlike the first embodiment described above, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the second embodiment does not include the solar radiation amount correction formula deriving unit 62 and the temperature correction formula deriving unit 64. This is because when the accuracy of the predicted solar radiation amount and the predicted temperature value transmitted from the numerical weather prediction system 50 is high, correction of the predicted solar radiation data and the predicted temperature value is not necessary.

  Next, a power generation amount prediction process performed by the power generation amount prediction unit 68 according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. In FIG. 7, the same processes as those in FIG. 5 are denoted by the same reference numerals as those in FIG.

  In step 102, the received predicted solar radiation amount and predicted temperature value are stored in the data storage unit 60, and thereafter, the process proceeds to step 108 '.

In step 108 ′, the power generation amount of the solar cell 12 after a predetermined time is predicted based on the solar radiation amount prediction value and temperature prediction data received in step 100 and the specifications of the solar power generation system 10. In this step, the power generation amount of the solar cell 12 is predicted using the calculation formula shown in the equation (3), similarly to the method of obtaining the past power generation amount calculation value. Specifically, in the process of step 108 ′, the value of K _(T) is obtained from the predicted temperature value, the value of P _AS is obtained from the specifications of the solar cell 12 stored in the specification storage unit 51, and the amount of solar radiation is predicted. by assigning a value to H _Am, it predicts the amount of electric power generated by the solar battery 12 by calculating the amount of power generation E _Pm.

  Then, after calculating the power generation amount predicted value of the solar cell 12 in step 108 ′, the process proceeds to step 110, and the power generation amount prediction value of the solar cell 12 acquired in step 108 ′ is corrected to the power generation amount shown in the equation (4). Substituting into x of the equation, the obtained result y is acquired as a corrected power generation amount predicted value, and the corrected power generation amount predicted value is stored in the data storage unit 60 in step 112, and this program is terminated.

[Third Embodiment]
Hereinafter, a third embodiment of the present invention will be described.

  FIG. 8 shows a configuration of the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the third embodiment. In FIG. 8, the same components as those in FIG. 3 are denoted by the same reference numerals as those in FIG. Moreover, since the structure of the solar power generation system 10 and the energy management apparatus 24 which concerns on this 3rd Embodiment is the same as that of FIG. 1, 2, the description is abbreviate | omitted.

  As described in the first embodiment, the power generation amount prediction unit 68 included in the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the third embodiment is the solar radiation corrected using the solar radiation amount correction formula shown in the equation (1). The predicted power generation amount of the solar cell 12 is calculated using the predicted amount of energy and the predicted temperature value corrected using the temperature correction formula shown in equation (2), and the predicted power generation value is expressed in equation (4). While performing the correction | amendment power generation amount prediction process correct | amended using the electric power generation amount correction | amendment formula shown, as demonstrated in 2nd Embodiment, it uses without correcting the solar radiation amount prediction value and the temperature prediction value of the solar cell 12. A power generation amount predicted value is calculated, and a corrected non-power generation amount prediction process is performed in which the power generation amount predicted value is corrected using a power generation amount correction formula shown in Equation (4). In the following description, the predicted power generation amount of the solar cell 12 obtained by the corrected power generation amount prediction process is referred to as a “corrected power generation amount prediction value”, while the solar cell obtained by the correction no power generation amount prediction process. The 12 power generation amount predicted values are referred to as “corrected no power generation amount predicted values”. The corrected power generation amount predicted value and the corrected non-power generation amount predicted value calculated by the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 are stored in the data storage unit 60 in association with the power generation amount actual measurement value on the same date and time.

  The determination unit 70 included in the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the third embodiment is that the predicted value among the corrected predicted power generation amount predicted value and the corrected non-power generation amount predicted value is the actual power generation amount actual value of the solar cell 12. Judgment processing is performed to determine whether it is close to.

  Next, a determination process performed by the determination unit 70 will be described with reference to FIG.

In FIG. 9A, the corrected generation amount predicted value and the corrected generation amount predicted value are set to the x-axis, the generation amount actual measurement value is set to the y-axis, FIG. 9 is a graph in which corresponding values are plotted (◯ in FIG. 9A) and values corresponding to the corrected no-power generation predicted value and the actual power generation actual value at the same date and time are plotted (● in FIG. 9A). . Then, an approximate expression is derived from a plurality of plotted values shown in FIG. The following equation (5) shows an approximate expression obtained from the corrected power generation amount predicted value, and the following equation (6) shows an approximate equation obtained from the corrected no power generation amount predicted value. In the following description, the approximate expression shown in the following expression (5) is referred to as an approximate expression with correction, and the approximate expression expressed in the following expression (6) is referred to as a correction non-approximation expression.

  Here, in the corrected approximate expression and the corrected non-approximate expression, y = x (hereinafter referred to as “ideal approximate expression”) as the difference between the corrected generated power generation predicted value, the corrected non-power generation predicted value, and the generated power generation actual value is smaller. ).

  Therefore, the determination process by the determination unit 70 compares the area enclosed by the corrected approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression with the size of the area surrounded by the corrected non-approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression, and the smaller one is smaller. It is determined that the power generation amount predicted value of the solar cell 12 represented by the approximate expression is close to the power generation amount actual measurement value of the solar cell 12. In the third embodiment, as an example, the determination process is performed once per day at a predetermined time (for example, sunrise time). However, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the determination process may be performed once every several days.

9B to 9D show specific examples of the determination process. In the determination process, first, a comparison range is set. In the third embodiment, as an example, the maximum value of the power generation of solar cell 12 (e.g., 200Wh / ^{m 2)} comparison range an area surrounded by the minimum amount of power generation of the solar cell 12 (0Wh / ^{m 2)} And

  The example in FIG. 9B shows a case where any of the corrected approximate expression, the corrected non-approximate expression, and the ideal approximate expression does not intersect. In the example of FIG. 9B, the area S1 surrounded by the corrected approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression is smaller than the area S2 surrounded by the corrected non-approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression. It is determined that the corrected power generation amount predicted value indicated by is closer to the actual power generation amount measured value of the solar cell 12.

  The example of FIG. 9C shows a case where the corrected approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression intersect, but the non-corrected approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression do not intersect. In the example of FIG. 9C, the area S1 surrounded by the corrected approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression is smaller than the area S2 surrounded by the corrected non-approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression. It is determined that the corrected power generation amount predicted value indicated by is closer to the actual power generation amount measured value of the solar cell 12.

  The example of FIG. 9D illustrates a case where the corrected approximate expression, the corrected non-approximate expression, and the ideal approximate expression all intersect. In the example of FIG. 9D, the area S1 surrounded by the corrected approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression is smaller than the area S2 surrounded by the corrected non-approximate expression and the ideal approximate expression. It is determined that the corrected power generation amount predicted value indicated by is closer to the actual power generation amount measured value of the solar cell 12.

  In addition, the determination unit 70 may delete, from the data storage unit 60, a predicted value different from the predicted value determined to be close to the actual power generation value of the solar cell 12 in the determination process. In addition, when the determination unit 70 determines that the corrected non-power generation amount predicted value is closer to the actual power generation amount measured value within a predetermined period (for example, January), Is larger than the case where it is determined that the power generation amount is close to the actual measurement value, the coefficients of the correction equations shown in the equations (1) and (2) are set to the initial values (a = 1, b = 0, c = 1, d = 0) may be restored.

  The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 may output the result obtained by the determination process to the notification device 26 so that the notification device 26 is notified.

As described above, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the third embodiment uses the determination unit 70 to calculate the power generation amount prediction value using the uncorrected solar radiation amount prediction value and the temperature prediction value, Either the case where the power generation amount predicted value is corrected, or the case where the power generation amount predicted value is calculated using the corrected solar radiation amount predicted value and the temperature predicted value and the power generation amount predicted value is corrected. It is determined whether a predicted power generation value closer to the actual power generation value of the battery 12 is obtained.
From the above, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to the third embodiment can predict the power generation amount of the solar cell with higher accuracy.

[Fourth Embodiment]
Hereinafter, the power generation amount prediction system according to the fourth embodiment of the present invention will be described.

  FIG. 10 shows a configuration of a power generation amount prediction system 80 according to the fourth embodiment. Note that the same components in FIG. 10 as those in FIG. 3 are denoted by the same reference numerals as those in FIG.

  The power generation amount prediction system 80 according to the fourth embodiment does not include the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 in the solar power generation system 10, and the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 is remote from the solar power generation system 10. The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 and the solar power generation system 10 can communicate with each other via the communication line 82.

  In the photovoltaic power generation system 10 according to the fourth embodiment, the estimated amount of solar radiation calculation, the temperature measurement value, and the solar cell at the point where the solar cell 12 is installed via the communication line 82 are sent to the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40. Twelve power generation actual measurement values are transmitted.

  The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 is connected to the communication line 82 via the external interface 84, and the actual solar radiation amount measurement value, the actual temperature measurement value, and the actual power generation amount measurement value of the solar battery 12 transmitted from the solar power generation system 10. (4) is derived based on the above, and the power generation amount predicted value corrected by the power generation amount prediction unit 68 using the equation (4) is transmitted to the photovoltaic power generation system 10 via the communication line 82. Various values transmitted from the solar power generation system 10 are stored in the data storage unit 60.

  Note that the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 and the solar power generation system 10 may transmit and receive various types of information via the server 86.

  From the above, the power generation amount prediction system 80 according to the fourth embodiment can predict the power generation amount of the solar battery of the solar power generation system 10 in a remote place with high accuracy.

  As mentioned above, although this invention was demonstrated using said each embodiment, the technical scope of this invention is not limited to the range as described in each said embodiment. Various changes or improvements can be added to the above-described embodiments without departing from the gist of the invention, and embodiments to which the changes or improvements are added are also included in the technical scope of the present invention.

  For example, in each of the above embodiments, the case where the predicted power generation amount after a predetermined time of the solar cell 12 is calculated using the predicted value of the temperature after the predetermined time as the temperature information after the predetermined time has been described. The invention is not limited to this, but as a temperature information after a predetermined time, a past corresponding to a predetermined time from a database (for example, the standard weather database METPV-3) that stores an actual measurement value of the past temperature is stored. The measured value of the temperature at the date and time may be read and used.

  Moreover, in each said embodiment except 2nd Embodiment, about the case where a solar radiation amount predicted value and a solar radiation amount actual measurement value, a temperature predicted value, and a temperature actual measurement value are grouped for every weather, and are memorize | stored in the data storage part 60. As described above, the present invention is not limited to this, and the predicted solar radiation amount and the actual solar radiation amount, and the predicted temperature value and the actual measured temperature value are measured every predetermined time range (for example, from 6 o'clock to 12 o'clock, Grouped from 12:00 to 16:00, 16:00 to 19:00, etc.) and stored in the data storage unit 60, and the solar radiation amount correction formula and the temperature correction formula may be derived for each predetermined time range.

  Moreover, in each said embodiment except 2nd Embodiment, although the case where a correction formula was derived | led-out in order to correct | amend a solar radiation amount predicted value was demonstrated, this invention is not limited to this, For example, past As a form of correcting by previously deriving a correction coefficient based on the predicted amount of solar radiation and a past actual amount of solar radiation corresponding to the predicted amount of solar radiation, and multiplying the predicted amount of solar radiation by the correction coefficient Good. Similarly, a correction coefficient based on a past temperature predicted value and a past temperature actual measurement value corresponding to the temperature predicted value may be derived in advance and corrected by multiplying the temperature predicted value by the correction coefficient. Good.

  Moreover, although each said embodiment demonstrated the case where the correction | amendment type | formula was derived | led-out in order to correct | amend the electric power generation amount prediction value of the solar cell 12, this invention is not limited to this, For example, it is the past electric power generation. A correction coefficient based on the amount calculation value and a past power generation amount actual measurement value corresponding to the power generation amount calculation value may be derived in advance and corrected by multiplying the power generation amount prediction value by the correction coefficient.

  Further, the function of the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 may be incorporated in the smart meter (smart grid), and the operation of the connected electrical device may be controlled according to the predicted power generation amount of the solar cell 12. Furthermore, you may incorporate the function of the prediction electric power generation amount calculation part 40 which concerns on each said embodiment in the power conditioner 20. FIG. Further, the function of the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 according to each of the above embodiments is incorporated into a solar power generation measurement display device (not shown) that displays the power generation amount of the solar battery 12 and the solar radiation amount measured by the solar meter 30. But you can.

  In addition, the predicted power generation amount of the solar battery 12 output from the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 40 is transmitted to the power supply company that supplies power using the commercial power system, and the power supply company is transmitted. Based on the predicted value, the amount of power supplied by the commercial power system may be adjusted.

  Further, the solar power generation system 10 uses a predicted power generation amount per unit area in the vicinity of the place where the solar cell 12 is installed, for example, a power supply company or the like, a business that wants to use the power generation predicted value, and You may transmit to the external server etc. which were connected via the communication line. And the solar power generation system 10 has the memory | storage means which memorize | stored beforehand the installation condition of the solar cell for every household and each factory for every predetermined area as information, and inputs the actual value of the power generation amount of a representative point. The power generation amount of the entire predetermined area may be predictable.

  Further, the solar power generation system 10 is configured to generate solar power when the predicted power generation amount after a predetermined time of the solar cell 12 and the actual power generation amount of the solar cell 12 after the predetermined time are different from each other by a predetermined value or more. You may provide the detection apparatus which detects that some abnormality has arisen in the system 10. FIG.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Solar power generation system 12 Solar cell 14 Commercial power system 16 Load 24 Energy management apparatus 26 Notification apparatus 40 Predicted electric power generation amount calculation part

Claims (10)

A power generation amount prediction device in a solar power generation system that operates a load that is an electric device by power supplied from an electric power system including at least power supply from a solar cell,
Based on the predicted value of the solar radiation amount after a predetermined time and the predicted value of the air temperature at the point where the solar cell is installed, and the predicted value of the power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar cell based on the specifications of the solar power generation system A prediction means for calculating
The predicted value calculated by the predicting unit is calculated in the same manner as the predicted value of the power generation amount by the predicting unit based on the past measured value of solar radiation amount, the actually measured value of temperature, and the specifications of the solar power generation system. Correction means for correcting based on a calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell and an actual measurement value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculated value;
A power generation amount prediction device equipped with   The correction unit is configured to calculate the predicted value calculated by the prediction unit based on a past calculation value of the solar cell power generation amount and an actual measurement value of the past solar cell power generation amount corresponding to the calculation value. The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the power generation amount prediction apparatus performs correction using a correction formula derived in the above. A solar radiation amount correcting means for correcting the predicted value of the solar radiation amount after the predetermined time based on the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount and the actual measured value of the past solar radiation amount corresponding to the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount,
Further comprising
3. The power generation amount prediction according to claim 1, wherein the prediction unit predicts a power generation amount after the predetermined time of the solar cell using the predicted value of the solar radiation amount corrected by the solar radiation amount correction unit. apparatus.   The solar radiation amount correcting means uses the correction formula that differs depending on the weather based on the actual measurement value of the past solar radiation amount and the predicted value of the past solar radiation amount corresponding to the actual measurement value, and the predicted value of the solar radiation amount The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the power generation amount is corrected. The temperature information after the predetermined time is the predicted value of the temperature after the predetermined time, and the predicted value of the temperature is the predicted value of the past temperature and the actual measured value of the past temperature corresponding to the predicted value of the past temperature. Temperature correction means for correcting based on
Further comprising
The said prediction means predicts the electric power generation amount after the said predetermined time of the said solar cell using the predicted value of the said air temperature corrected by the said air temperature correction means. Power generation prediction device.   The temperature correction means corrects the predicted value of the temperature by using a different correction formula according to the weather based on the measured value of the past temperature and the predicted value of the past temperature corresponding to the measured value. Item 6. The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to Item 5.   Of the predicted value of the power generation amount corrected by the power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1 and the predicted value of the power generation amount corrected by the power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 3 to 6, A power generation amount prediction apparatus further comprising determination means for determining which predicted value is closer to the actual measurement value of the power generation amount of the solar cell. The power generation amount prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is provided at a remote location with respect to the solar power generation system, and the power generation amount prediction device and the solar power generation system are connected via a communication line. Power generation amount prediction system that can be communicated with,
The photovoltaic power generation system is configured to measure the amount of solar radiation, the measured value of the air temperature, and the measured amount of power generated by the solar cell at the point where the solar cell is installed via the communication line. Send value,
The power generation amount prediction device uses the actual value of solar radiation transmitted from the solar power generation system, the actual measurement value of air temperature, and the actual power generation amount of the solar cell to correct the power generation amount corrected by the correction unit. A power generation amount prediction system that transmits a predicted value to the solar power generation system via the communication line. A method for predicting the amount of power generation in a solar power generation system that operates a load that is an electrical device by power supplied from an electric power system including at least power supply from a solar cell,
Based on the predicted value of solar radiation after a predetermined time and temperature information at the point where the solar cell is installed and the specifications of the solar power generation system, the predicted value of the power generation after the predetermined time of the solar battery is calculated. A first step of
The predicted value calculated in the first step is calculated in the same manner as the predicted value of the power generation amount by the prediction means based on the past actual measurement value of solar radiation amount, the actual measurement value of air temperature, and the specifications of the solar power generation system. A second step of correcting based on the calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell and the actual measurement value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculated value;
Power generation amount prediction method including A power generation amount prediction program in a solar power generation system that operates a load that is an electric device by power supplied from an electric power system including at least power supply from a solar cell,
On the computer,
Based on the predicted value of solar radiation after a predetermined time and temperature information at the point where the solar cell is installed and the specifications of the solar power generation system, the predicted value of the power generation after the predetermined time of the solar battery is calculated. Prediction means to
The predicted value calculated by the predicting unit is calculated in the same manner as the predicted value of the power generation amount by the predicting unit, based on the past actual measured value of solar radiation amount, the actually measured temperature value, and the specifications of the solar power generation system. Correction means for correcting based on a calculated value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell and an actual measurement value of the past power generation amount of the solar cell corresponding to the calculated value;
Power generation amount prediction program that executes

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