JP2009276260A - Abnormality determination device of ground displacement and method for determining abnormality - Google Patents

Abstract

[PROBLEMS] To accurately determine whether or not there is an abnormality in ground displacement by observing changes in measurement data of specific ions in groundwater over time, regardless of changes due to the measurement environment or the occurrence of instantaneous abnormal values. .
An alarm in which a short-term average value X and a long-term average value Y are calculated based on captured measurement data, and are changed by predetermined set ratios α and β with respect to the long-term average value Y, respectively. The judgment value A and the forecast judgment value B are calculated, and when the short-term average value X exceeds the warning judgment value A, a warning judgment is made, and when the forecast judgment value B is exceeded, a forecast judgment is made.
[Selection] Figure 2

Description

  The present invention belongs to a technical field of an abnormality determination device and an abnormality determination method for ground displacement caused by slope failure such as landslide, surface layer collapse, and landslide that may occur on unstable slope ground.

In general, there is a landslide disaster as one of the natural disasters, and as such a landslide disaster, there are disasters caused by landslide, surface layer collapse, landslide, debris flow, etc. that occur on unstable slopes. And such a sediment disaster on the sloped ground will cause the displacement of the ground due to the collapse of the slope ground, that is, the deformation and movement of the ground, and the method of measuring such ground displacement is highly accurate. Using an electronic ranging / angular measuring instrument, measure the ground displacement by measuring the change in distance and angle to the index placed in the area with the ground displacement using the arbitrary position deviated from the area with the ground displacement as a reference point. There is something like that (see Patent Document 1). On the other hand, a hole for measurement is dug in the ground at an arbitrary position where the ground displacement exists, a strained cable is inserted here, and the amount of strain caused by the ground displacement is measured to measure the ground displacement. There is a thing (refer patent document 2).
However, the conventional device requires expensive measuring equipment and measures the ground displacement during or after the slope failure actually occurs, and predicts the occurrence of the ground displacement. Not what you want. Moreover, such a landslide disaster caused by ground displacement can be dealt with as long as there is no damage even if it occurs after it has occurred. In many cases, it is a countermeasure after the occurrence of a disaster, and it is currently impossible to prevent landslide disasters.
Therefore, the inventor of the present invention continuously measures the concentration of specific ions contained in the groundwater in the area where the ground displacement may occur, and it is recognized that there is a sudden change in the measured value. The inventors have created an invention that predicts that this is a precursor to occurrence of ground displacement (see Patent Documents 3 and 4).
Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 5-118851 Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 10-82667 JP 2002-339373 A JP 2003-279561 A

  However, in the case of predicting that the ground displacement is a sign of occurrence, a specific change is defined as a sudden change when it is recognized that there is a sudden change. However, this sudden change is not uniform because it varies depending on the measurement environment such as the measurement area and the measurement season, and there is some trouble with the measurement device. When an abnormal value is generated, an abnormal determination may be made immediately based on the abnormal value. Therefore, there is a problem that it is actually difficult to determine an abnormality of the ground displacement, and there is a problem that the present invention does not solve here. is there.

The present invention was created with the object of solving these problems in view of the above circumstances, and the invention of claim 1 is based on ground displacement measurement data that is continuously input. The ground displacement abnormality determination device includes a short period of time based on measurement data from the present to a short period before and a long period before based on the input measurement data. An average value calculating means for calculating an average value and a long-term average value, respectively, and an abnormality determination value calculation for calculating an abnormality determination value that is changed by a preset abnormality determination ratio with respect to the calculated long-term average value And an abnormality determining means for determining whether or not the calculated short-term average value exceeds the calculated abnormality determination value, and determining that it is in an abnormal state when it is determined that the average value exceeds the calculated abnormality determination value. And configured with It is abnormality determination device of ground displacement, characterized in that.
The invention according to claim 2 is the ground displacement abnormality determination device according to claim 1, wherein at least an alarm determination value having a large abnormality determination ratio and a small forecast determination value are set as the abnormality determination value. .
The invention according to claim 3 is a method for determining abnormality of ground displacement based on continuously input measurement data of ground displacement, and the method of determining abnormality of ground displacement is based on the input measurement data. An average value calculating step for calculating a short-term average value and a long-term average value based on measurement data from a preset short period before and a long period before, respectively, and for the calculated long-term average value An abnormality determination value calculation step of calculating an abnormality determination value changed by a preset abnormality determination ratio, and determining whether or not the calculated short-term average value exceeds the calculated abnormality determination value. An abnormality determination method for ground displacement, characterized by comprising an abnormality determination step for determining that the current state is abnormal when it is determined that it is exceeded.

By making the invention of claim 1 or 3, it is easy and reliable to determine whether or not there is an abnormality in ground displacement, regardless of variations due to various measurement environments such as the measurement area or measurement season, or the occurrence of instantaneous abnormal values. Therefore, it is possible to make a highly reliable abnormality determination.
According to the invention of claim 2, the abnormality determination can be divided into a warning determination with a high degree of risk and a forecast determination with a low degree of risk, and a more accurate abnormality determination can be made.

  Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In the figure, reference numeral 1 denotes a concentration sensor that measures the concentration of specific ions (one type or plural types of ions) such as sodium ions contained in groundwater in an area where ground displacement is expected. A selective electrode can be used. The concentration sensor 1 is provided with a communication means 2 capable of communicating measurement data using a communication transmission medium such as a telephone line (including a mobile phone line).

  On the other hand, 3 is a management terminal, and the management terminal 3 is required to take necessary measures when an abnormal judgment of ground displacement due to slope failure such as landslide or surface failure is made. In such a case, it is necessary to manage at a large number of locations over a wide range, and therefore, these management terminals 3 may be individually provided at each measurement location and managed in each area, but it is also possible to manage them comprehensively. In such a case, the measured ion concentration is input to the management terminal of the headquarters via the local management terminal, and the ground displacement due to the slope failure such as landslide or surface layer collapse described above at the management terminal 3 of this headquarters Landslides, surface layer collapses, etc. by making anomaly judgments and outputting the results to the terminal of the branch (department, region) where the results of the anomaly judgment need to be known, such as branch management terminals Slope failure In this embodiment, measurement data is concentrated and input to the management terminal 3 of the headquarters, necessary abnormality determination is made, and the result is reported to the site. It is like that.

  The management terminal 3 is configured by using a keyboard 4 as an input means, a display 5 for displaying a screen, and a terminal main body 6 for performing necessary computer processing. The terminal main body 6 is measured by the concentration sensor 1. Measured data is input.

  As shown in FIG. 2, when the system is started, the management terminal 3 performs initial settings and takes in the input measurement data (S-1). The short-term average value X is based on the taken measurement data. And the long-term average value Y are calculated (S-2, 3). The short-term average value X is an average value of measurement data in a preset short period (for example, from 24 hours before or 48 hours before), and the long-term average value Y is a preset long-term value (for example, The average value of the measurement data from 168 hours (one week) or 336 hours (two weeks) before the present)

  Thus, when the average values X and Y for short and long periods are calculated, an abnormality determination is made as to whether or not there is an abnormality in the measurement data. It is set to make two abnormal judgments, such as forecast judgment, and this will be explained below. For example, only one abnormality judgment of alarm judgment or three or more abnormalities with two or more forecast judgments It can be set to make a decision.

Then, here, the alarm judgment value A for alarm judgment is calculated (S-4). The alarm judgment value A is preset with respect to the calculated long-term average value Y. It is obtained as a value changed by the alarm setting ratio α. That is, the alarm judgment value A is obtained as a change value (which may be both decrease and increase / decrease) increased by α% (for example, 30%) with respect to the long-term average value Y.
A = Y × (1 + α)

  When the alarm determination value A is calculated in this way, it is then determined whether or not the short-term average value X exceeds the alarm determination value A (S-5) and exceeds (X> A). If YES is determined, it is determined that the current state is abnormal, and an alarm is issued (S-6).

On the other hand, if NO is determined that the short-term average value X is equal to or less than the warning determination value A, the prediction determination value B for making the prediction determination is calculated (S-7). The forecast judgment value B is a value that has changed by a preset forecast setting ratio β with respect to the calculated long-term average value Y (here, β <α because the forecast has a higher safety factor than the alarm). Desired. That is, the forecast judgment value B is a change value (decrease or increase / decrease) that increases by β% (for example, 24% (for example, may be set as an amount obtained by subtracting 20% from the change amount of 30%) with respect to the long-term average value Y. Both may be required).
B = Y × (1 + β)

  When the forecast determination value B is calculated in this way, it is next determined whether or not the short-term average value X exceeds the alarm determination value B (S-8), and exceeds (X> B). If YES is determined, it is determined that it is currently in a forecast state, and control is performed so as to issue a forecast (S-9).

  In the embodiment of the present invention configured as described above, when determining the abnormality of the ground displacement, the short-term average value X and the long-term average value Y are calculated, and each predetermined value for the long-term average value Y is determined. The alarm judgment value A and the forecast judgment value B, which are changed by the set ratios α and β, are calculated. When the short-term average value X exceeds the warning judgment value A, the alarm judgment is made, and the forecast judgment value is calculated. When it exceeds, control for judging the forecast is executed. As a result, even if the measurement data varies due to various measurement environments such as the measurement area and measurement season and is not uniform, it is possible to carry out alarm judgments and forecast judgments corresponding to those environments. . In addition, since these determinations are made based on the short-term average value X, when a measurement device has some trouble or an instantaneous abnormal value occurs, it can be accurately determined without being affected by this. Can improve reliability.

  In addition, in this case, there is a high-risk alarm judgment in which the abnormality judgment is judged with a large change rate α with respect to the long-term average value Y, and a previous-stage forecast judgment that leads to an alarm judgment with a small change rate β. As a result, abnormality determination is staged, and abnormality determination with higher reliability can be performed.

It is a block circuit diagram of an abnormality judgment system. It is a flowchart figure of abnormality determination.

Explanation of symbols

1 Concentration sensor 3 Management terminal 3

Claims (3)

  An apparatus for determining abnormality of ground displacement based on continuously input measurement data of ground displacement, the ground displacement abnormality determining apparatus being a short-term preset from the present based on the input measurement data Mean value calculating means for calculating a short-term average value and a long-term average value based on measurement data before and a long time ago, and an abnormality determination preset for the calculated long-term average value An abnormality determination value calculating means for calculating an abnormality determination value changed by a ratio, and determining whether or not the calculated short-term average value exceeds the calculated abnormality determination value, and determining that it has exceeded An abnormality determination device for ground displacement, characterized by comprising an abnormality determination means for determining that the current state is abnormal when it is performed.   2. The ground displacement abnormality determination device according to claim 1, wherein at least an alarm determination value with a large abnormality determination ratio and a small forecast determination value are set as the abnormality determination value.   A ground displacement abnormality determination method based on continuously input ground displacement measurement data, wherein the ground displacement abnormality determination method is a short period preset from the present based on the input measurement data. An average value calculation step for calculating a short-term average value and a long-term average value based on measurement data before and for a long period of time respectively, and an abnormality determination ratio set in advance for the calculated long-term average value An abnormality determination value calculating step for calculating an abnormality determination value that is changed only by the amount, and determining whether or not the calculated short-term average value exceeds the calculated abnormality determination value. A ground displacement abnormality determination method, comprising: an abnormality determination step of determining that the current state is abnormal.

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