JP2007295683A - Electric energy calculation device and electric energy calculation method - Google Patents

Abstract

An object of the present invention is to provide a means for deciding a priority order for maximizing the profit of an operator in an electric power transaction between the electric company and a power plant.
Power usage total information 313 of an electric power company customer, electric power information 314 that can be supplied by the electric power company itself, command result information 315 storing a predicted command amount to a power plant, weather information 316, calendar information 317 and storage unit 304 storing power transaction contract fee information 318, a relational expression estimating unit 309 for estimating a relational expression representing the causal relationship between weather information, calendar information, and command result information from the storage unit, weather information and calendar By substituting the information into the relational expression, the power transmission / distribution command amount prediction unit 310 for calculating the predicted power transmission / distribution command amount for any date, the power transaction contract fee information 318, and the predicted power transmission / distribution command amount are used. A power amount calculation apparatus comprising: a priority order determination unit 311 that calculates expected profits and determines power transmission and distribution priorities so that the expected profits are maximized.
[Selection] Figure 3

Description

  The present invention relates to an electric energy calculation device and an electric energy calculation method.

  In Japan, the gradual liberalization of electric power enables new entry in the power generation business and the retail business among the power generation business, power transmission and distribution business, and retail business that have been conducted exclusively by electric power companies (general electric utilities). It was. A company that has entered the power generation business (hereinafter referred to as a power generation company) wholesales the power generated by the company to an electric power company (general electric power company), PPS (Power Producer & Supplier: specific scale electric power company), or the like. The PPS that entered the retail business retails power purchased from other companies such as power generation companies or power generated by the company to power customers who are customers. However, for power transmission / distribution from a power plant to a customer, it is more common to entrust payment of a consignment fee to a business operator (hereinafter referred to as a power transmission / distribution business) that carries out power transmission / distribution rather than owning equipment. Here, the power transmission / distribution company refers to the power transmission / distribution department of the power company in a situation where the power company performs the power transmission / distribution business exclusively.

A PPS that operates a retail business is obliged to achieve the same amount of supply and demand at the same time. However, if the supply is below demand, the transmission and distribution companies will supply the shortage. Therefore, the customer who contracts with PPS does not suffer a disadvantage.
However, PPS is obligated to pay for the power compensated by the power transmission and distribution companies, and the price is very high. Therefore, if supply shortages are repeated, PPS revenue will be reduced. In addition, even for power transmission and distribution companies, an unscheduled supply of PPS will cause a threat to stable supply to consumers. For this reason, when it is necessary to supply more power than planned, the PPS needs to increase the supply amount as soon as possible and ensure reserve capacity so as not to cause a shortage of supply. It has a power generation facility that waits without load operation or power generation.

  In order to alleviate the high cost due to partial load operation, there is a method (Patent Document 1) in which a plurality of customers and electric utilities jointly use power generation equipment. That is, in Patent Document 1, a power supply network is configured by a plurality of power consumers including a power consumer having a private power generation facility, and the power supply cost is based on the power generation capacity of each power generation facility and the planned demand of each customer. A method and system for formulating and executing a minimal power generation plan and transmission / distribution plan is disclosed.

JP 2004-248340 A (paragraph 0051 to paragraph 0055, FIG. 8)

However, when partial load operation or standby operation is performed, the power generation income obtained is small because retailing is not possible, and the ratio of costs such as fixed costs to income increases. Furthermore, the unit price of power generation is generally the lowest when the power generation facility is at full output, and the unit price of power generation increases as the load decreases.
That is, in order for PPS to avoid a decrease in profits due to a shortage of supply, it is necessary to secure reserve capacity. However, securing reserve capacity is also expensive.

  Here, in the current operation, when a power generation company and a plurality of electric power companies (including PPS) carry out a power transaction, the electric power company to the power transmission / distribution company by a predetermined date and time (for example, noon on the previous day). The transaction contents (delivery amount and priority for each unit time) are notified, and the power transmission / distribution company delivers power to each electric power company on the day based on the transaction contents. Even if a power generation plan and a power transmission / distribution plan are formulated based on the power generation capacity of the power plant and the power demand of the power company, and the power generation, power transmission / distribution plan is attempted based on the power generation plan, the power business As the demand amount of the consumer cannot be revised downward, if the electric utility notifies the delivery amount in a large amount or the demand forecast deviates too little, the electric power provider will not be able to supply enough power. Power will be supplied by paying the price of expensive power to the business. In addition, when the power plant cannot generate power as commanded, it cannot respond to the shortage of the supply capacity of the electric utility.

According to the claims in Patent Document 1, “supply to each consumer based on the power generation capacity of each private power generation facility per planned unit time and the power demand per planned unit time created by each consumer. `` Create a power generation plan and transmission / distribution plan that minimizes power costs, and thereby generate power, transmission and distribution '', and `` consumers may include electric power companies and other electric utilities '' However, under the above operation, since it is not based on the power generation capacity and power demand at the time of delivery, the consumer notifies the delivery amount between the private power generation company and the consumer, When the demand forecast deviates in a direction that is too small, there is a shortage of power to be supplied to the consumer, and the private power generation company pays the power transmission / distribution company for a higher price for power supply. In addition, when the private power plant cannot generate power according to the command, it cannot cope with the shortage of supply capacity for consumers.
Therefore, even if you make a power generation plan and a power transmission / distribution plan based on the power generation capacity and power demand and generate power as planned, depending on the notification content until the date and time (for example, noon the previous day) to the power transmission and distribution company, There may be a difference between the transmission and distribution of electricity to each electric utility and the power demand.

In the following, problems in the current operation will be described in detail.
Here, a case where a power plant G (including a power generation company) makes a power transaction with respect to an electric power company A and an electric power company B from 13:00 to 13:30 on a certain day is taken as an example. In addition, let the fixed date and time which is a time limit which notifies to a power transmission / distribution company from an electric power company be the noon the previous day.

First, it is assumed that the power plant and the electric power company confirm the following transaction contents by noon on the day before the power delivery and notify the power transmission and distribution business.
Electricity company A: Purchase 50 MWh from power station G with priority 1st Electricity company B: Purchase 50 MWh from power station G 2nd priority Priority is the power transmission / distribution company Is the order of preferential transmission / distribution of the electric power when transmitting / distributing power to / from customers of the electric power company. The power station is determined by the electric power company.
In this case, if the power plant generates 100 MWh from 13:00 to 13:30 on that day, the electric power company A and the electric power company B can receive 50 MWh at that time zone. However, if the power generation amount of the power plant on the day cannot be generated as commanded and is 80 MWh, the electric utility A can receive 50 MWh as contracted, but the electric utility B can only receive 30 MWh. . Furthermore, if the power generation amount on the day is 40 MWh, the electric utility A is 40 MWh and the electric operator B is 0 MWh. If the power supply is insufficient, the transmission / distribution company will supply the shortage, and the electric company will be obliged to pay the price.

  On the other hand, if the power plant generates 100 MWh from 13:00 to 13:30 on the same day, if the actual demand amount from 13 o'clock to 13:30 on that day is 30 MWh, 20 MWh is excessively purchased.

  In this way, the transmission / distribution company supplies the transmission / distribution service on the premise that the power plant and the electric company decide the transaction volume by the previous day. Therefore, we explain how power plants and electric utilities can make transactions in response to real-time demand fluctuations of each electric power company without changing the contents of the services of the power transmission and distribution companies, and details the problems associated with it. Give an explanation.

When the power plant and the electric power company confirm the same transaction contents as before by noon on the day before the power delivery and notify the power transmission and distribution business, the power station G and the electric power are generated in real time from 13 o'clock to 13:30 on that day. Suppose that the transaction volume has been revised downward with the business operator as follows.
Electricity company A: Purchase 50 MWh from power station G with priority 1st Electricity company B: Purchase 10 MWh from power station G with priority 2nd In this case, if power station G generates 60 MWh, 50 MWh, electric utility B can receive 10 MWh of power, and no surplus power is generated.

On the other hand, assume that the transaction volume is revised downward as follows.
Electricity company A: 30 MWh purchase from power station G at priority 1st Electricity company B: 10 MWh purchase from power station G at 2nd priority order In this case, if power station G generates 60 MWh, 30 MWh, electric utility B can receive 10 MWh of power. Here, there is a difference between the sum of the amount of power received by electric utility A and electric utility B (40 MWh) and the amount of power generation at power plant G (60 MWh). This is because 50 MWh was delivered to the business operator A, but the power business operator A took over 20 MWh of surplus power because the power business operator A only needs 30 MWh for balance of supply and demand. In this case, the power plant G actually needs to generate 60 MWh with respect to the demand amount of 40 MWh, and generates more power than the electric power demand of the electric power company. Therefore, if the priority order is mistaken in this way, the power plant G consumes a power generation cost that is higher than the power demand of the electric power company, and the power plant G has a reduced profit for the surplus power. .
Similarly, when the power plant G can generate only 40 MWh, the electric power company A receives 30 MWh and the electric power company B receives 0 MWh, and the surplus power 10 MWh of the electric power company A is taken over by the transmission and distribution company. . In this case, since the power transmission / distribution company is notified that 50 MWh is delivered to the electric power provider A having the highest priority on the previous day, if the power station G does not generate power of 50 MWh or more, the electric power having the second highest priority will be provided. Electricity cannot be delivered to the business operator, and electric power company B cannot receive power.

  Therefore, in order for a power plant and an electric power company to make a transaction in response to a real-time demand fluctuation of each electric power company, not only the power generation capacity of the power station and the electric power demand of the electric power company but also the power transmission and distribution business It is necessary to plan the power generation amount of the power plant in consideration of the notified priority order.

  Therefore, the present invention provides a means for calculating the amount of power generated by a power plant for real-time transactions between an electric power company and a power plant, and a means for determining a priority order that maximizes the profit of the business operator. With the goal.

The present invention predicts the contract transaction volume per unit time that the electric power company has notified the power transmission / distribution company in advance, the power transmission / distribution priority order, and the real-time power transmission / distribution command quantity for each electric power company. The power generation amount is determined.
Further, by estimating a relational expression representing a causal relationship between past weather results and calendar information and the power transmission / distribution command results, which is the power transmission / distribution command amount, and substituting future weather information and calendar information into the relational expression, A future power transmission / distribution command amount is predicted, and the priority order is determined so as to maximize the expected profit of the power plant.
Note that the electric utility may include PPS. The owner of the power plant may be an electric utility. Further, the consumer may include an electric utility.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the electric power generation amount of the power plant for the real-time transaction between an electric power company and a power plant can be calculated. It is also possible to determine priorities that maximize the profits of the operator.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of an electric energy calculating apparatus and an electric energy calculating method according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a power amount calculation system to which the power amount calculation device and the power amount calculation method of the present embodiment are applied.
As shown in FIG. 1, in the power amount calculation system 1, the power amount calculation server 103 installed in the operation room 102 of the power plant 101 includes an electric power company A server 106 and an electric power company managed by the electric power company A. It is connected to an electric power company B server 107 managed by B via a communication line. The electric power company A server 106 and the electric power company B server 107 are connected via a communication line to a power transmission / distribution company server 113 managed by the power transmission / distribution company.

  The generator G104 installed in the power plant 101 generates power according to a power generation command from a power generation command device (not shown) installed in the operation room 102, and the power generated by the generator G104 is managed by a transmission / distribution company. Power is transmitted to the consumers u1 to u4 via the power transmission and distribution network 108. Electricity meters 105, 109, 110, 111, and 112 are installed on each transmission and distribution line of the electric power transmission and distribution network 108, and the electric energy measured by these electric energy meters 105, 109, 110, 111, and 112 is a communication amount. Sent to each of the above servers via a line.

Here, the consumer u1 and the consumer u2 are customers of the electric utility A, and the electric power transmitted to the consumer u1 and the consumer u2 is measured by the electric energy meters 109 and 110, and the electric utility A server 106 And transmitted to the power transmission / distribution company server 113 and further transmitted to the electric energy calculation server 103 via the electric company A server 106. Further, the customer u3 and the customer u4 are customers of the electric utility B, and the electric power transmitted to the customer u3 and the customer u4 is measured by the electric energy meters 111 and 112, and the electric utility B server 107 and It is transmitted to the power transmission / distribution company server 113, and further transmitted to the electric energy calculation server 103 via the electric company B server 107. Here, the power amount calculation server 103 corresponds to the power amount calculation device described in the claims.
In addition, in FIG. 1, although the case of two electric power companies is shown as an example, the number of cases is not limited to this and may be three or more.

FIG. 2 is an example of a time schedule of a power plant, a power transmission / distribution company, and an electric power company of the power amount calculation system to which the power amount calculation device and the power amount calculation method of the present embodiment are applied. With reference to FIG. 1, it demonstrates along FIG.
First, the electric power company uses the electric power company servers 106 and 107 to use the electric power company servers 106 and 107 to arrange the power transmission / distribution amount (contract transaction amount), which is a power demand in units of 30 minutes, on the next day in the power plant 101. 103 is instructed (S201). Receiving this, the power amount calculation server 103 determines the power transmission / distribution priority (S202), and notifies the electric utility servers 106, 107 of the priority (S203). Upon receiving this priority order, the electric power company uses the electric power company servers 106 and 107 to transmit the priority order and the contract transaction amount, which are contract contents with the power plant 101, to the power transmission / distribution company related to the power transmission / distribution company. The server 113 is notified (S204). Here, the deadline for notifying the power transmission and distribution company server 113 of the contract details with the power plant 101 is set to be noon on the day before the power delivery.

Next, in the case where the electric power company performs a power transaction with the power generation company arranged at the power plant 101 for, for example, from 13:00 to 13:30 on the same day, the required power demand of the electric power company is If the amount less than the contracted contract amount is sufficient, the electric power provider servers 106 and 107 are used to notify the electric power demand calculation server 103 arranged in the power plant 101 of the electric power demand (S205).
The power amount calculation server 103 that has received this notification calculates the power generation amount from 13:00 to 13:30 on that day as described later (S206), adjusts the power generation output of the generator G104, and sends the calculated power generation amount. The power transmission / distribution company consigns it to the power distribution company via the power transmission / distribution line (S207), and the power transmission / distribution company consigns the electric power to the customers u1-u4 who are customers of the electric power company according to the power transmission / distribution command (S208).

Next, FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration example of the power amount calculation server 103 of FIG.
The power amount calculation server 103 includes a CPU 301, a memory 302, an input / output interface device 303, a storage device 304, and a communication device 305. The memory 302 includes a power amount totaling unit 306, a power transmission / distribution command amount determination unit 307, and a power generation amount calculation unit 308 as the processing unit 1, and a relational expression estimation unit 309, a power transmission / distribution command amount prediction unit 310, and a priority order as the processing unit 2. The determination unit 311 is loaded as a program and executed by the CPU 301. The operation of each functional unit will be described later. The storage device 304 stores a power transmission / distribution information storage table 312, a demand record table 313, a suppliable amount table 314, a power transmission / distribution command amount table 315, a weather information storage table 316, a calendar storage table 317, and a contract fee table 318. . Here, the storage device 304 corresponds to a storage unit described in the claims.
Each table may be managed by a database server connected by the communication device 305, and the power amount calculation server 103 may read and write via the communication device 305. Hereinafter, data stored in each table will be described.

FIG. 4 is a table configuration diagram showing a demand record table. As will be described later (see FIG. 12), the demand record table 313 stores a demand record obtained by collecting the amount of power used by each consumer for each measurement unit time for each electric power company. In this embodiment, the measurement unit time is 5 minutes.
The demand result table 313 includes the power usage date, the electric power company that is in power transactions with the power plant 101, the totaling start time, the totaling end time, and the amount of electric power for each electric power company used for each measurement unit time. It is managed as an associated record.
Note that the record stored in the demand record table 313 corresponds to the total data described in the claims.

FIG. 5 is a table configuration diagram showing a suppliable amount table. The supplyable amount table 314 stores the amount of power per unit time that can be supplied for each electric power company. Here, “amount of power that can be supplied” means the amount of power that an electric power company can procure from a power plant including its own power generation facilities other than the power plant 101.
The supplyable amount table 314 can be supplied between the supply date, the electric power company that is in the power transaction with the power plant 101, the start time and end time at which power can be supplied, and the start time and end time. Manage records with associated power. In this embodiment, the unit time is 30 minutes.
In addition, the electric power company transmits to the power plant 101 a value of the amount of power that can be supplied from the start time to the end time before the time when the power transmission / distribution command is issued (see FIG. 2). A program (not shown) loaded in the memory 302 (see FIG. 3) of the power amount calculation server 103 receives the data and registers it in the suppliable amount table 314.
The record stored in the suppliable amount table 314 corresponds to the power information described in the claims.

FIG. 6 is a table configuration diagram showing a power transmission / distribution command amount table. The power transmission / distribution command amount table 315 stores a power transmission / distribution command amount to be described later for each electric power company for each unit time.
The power transmission / distribution command amount table 315 manages a record in which the date of the power transmission / distribution command, the electric power company that performs power transactions with the power plant 101, and the power transmission / distribution command amount per unit time are associated with each other. The record stored in the power transmission / distribution command amount table 315 corresponds to the command record information described in the claims.

FIG. 7 is a table configuration diagram showing a transmission / distribution information storage table. The power transmission / distribution information storage table 312 includes the contents previously notified by the electric power company to the power transmission / distribution company (see FIG. 2), that is, the contract transaction amount per unit time between the power plant 101 and the electric power company, and the power transmission / distribution. Stores priorities.
The power transmission / distribution information storage table 312 associates the date of power transmission / reception, the start and end times of power supply, the electric power company that is engaged in power transactions with the power plant 101, the contract transaction volume, and the power transmission / distribution priority. Manage records.
The power transmission / distribution information storage table 312 includes a program (not shown) after the power generation company managing the power plant 101 determines the power transmission / distribution priority using the power amount calculation server 103 (see FIG. 2). Register.

FIG. 8 is a table configuration diagram showing a weather information storage table.
The weather information storage table 316 stores past weather information and predicted weather information for each day in each area.
The weather information storage table 316 corresponds to the date of the weather information, the location of the weather information, the actual value of the weather information (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, weather), and the forecast value of the weather information (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, weather). Manage the attached records. The record stored in the weather information storage table 316 corresponds to the weather information described in the claims.
In the weather information storage table 316, a program (not shown) registers the actual value of the current day at a predetermined time every day, and registers only the forecast value on the date after that day.

FIG. 9 is a table configuration diagram showing a calendar storage table. The calendar storage table 317 stores information on days of the week and holidays for the past, present, and future.
The calendar storage table 317 manages a record that associates a date, a day of the week for the date, and whether the date is a holiday.
The calendar storage table 317 is a table stored in advance. The records stored in the calendar table 317 correspond to the calendar information described in the claims.

FIG. 10 is a table configuration diagram showing a contract fee table.
The contract fee table 318 stores contract fee information for each electric power company between the power plant 101 and the electric power company.
The contract fee table 318 manages a record in which an electric power company that performs power transactions with the power plant 101, a metered fee, a fixed fee, and a purchase fee are associated with each other.
Here, the metered rate is the unit price when receiving power supply from the power plant, the fixed rate is the fixed rate when receiving power supply from the power plant, and the purchase rate is electricity This is the unit price for purchasing power from a power plant when a business receives a supply that exceeds demand.
Further, in the contract fee table 318, when a contract for a power transaction between the electric power company and the power plant 101 is determined, the power plant stores the data in the power amount calculation server 103. The record stored in the contract fee table 318 corresponds to the power transaction contract fee information described in the claims.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a flow of a procedure necessary for realizing a real-time power transaction between the power plant 101 and a plurality of electric utilities in the power amount calculation system 1 to which the present embodiment is applied. The procedure in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.

  In the power amount measurement procedure S1101, the power amount calculation server 103 receives the power usage amounts of the consumers u1, u2, u3, u4 measured by the power meters 109, 110, 111, 112 for each measurement unit time. To do.

  In the power amount totaling step S1102, as described later (see FIG. 12), the power amount calculation server 103 totals the power usage amount for each measurement unit time of each consumer for each electric power company. That is, the power consumption calculation server 103 uses the power consumption of the measurement unit time of the consumer u1 and the consumer u2 of the electric utility A and the power consumption of the measurement unit time of the consumer u3 and the consumer u4 of the electric utility B. Are collected for each electric power company A and electric power company B and registered in the demand record table 313 (see FIGS. 3 and 4).

In the power transmission / distribution command amount determination procedure S1103, as will be described later (see FIG. 13), the power amount calculation server 103 is based on the demand record table 313 registered in the power amount totalization step S1102 for each electric power company. A predicted demand per unit time is calculated, and the amount of power that can be supplied by the electric utility other than the power plant 101 in the same time zone is stored in advance as a supplyable amount table 314 (FIGS. 3 and 5). The power amount required for the day, that is, the power transmission / distribution command amount serving as the power transmission / distribution command from the electric power company to the power plant 101 is determined.
For example, in this embodiment, when the unit time is 30 minutes, when a power transmission / distribution command from 13:00 to 13:30 is executed at 13:10, the current demand record at 13:10 is changed from 13:00 to 13: 30 predicted demand amounts are calculated, and the power transmission / distribution command amount is determined.

  In the power generation amount calculation procedure S1104, as will be described later (see FIG. 14), the power amount calculation server 103 transmits the power transmission / distribution command amount and the power transmission / distribution registered in advance for each electric power company per unit time. The amount of power to be generated by the power plant 101 is calculated from the contract transaction amount with the power plant 101 read from the information storage table 312 (see FIGS. 3 and 7) and the power transmission and distribution priority. Then, in the operation room 102 of the power plant 101, a power generation command signal is transmitted from a power generation command device (not shown) to the generator G104 based on the calculated power generation amount to execute power generation.

  Next, FIG. 12 shows the electric energy calculation server 103 in the electric energy measurement procedure S1101 and the electric energy aggregation procedure S1102 shown in FIG. It is the figure which showed the example of the processing flow in the case of totaling. With reference to FIGS. 1 and 3, the power amount totaling process according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 12.

  First, the power amount totaling unit 306 of the power amount calculation server 103 transmits the power amount data for each measurement unit time of each consumer u1 to u4 to each demand via a communication line connected to the watthour meters 109 to 112. Received in units of house (S1201). The communication data received at this time may be accompanied by, for example, the identification number of the consumer who uses the power, the power usage amount of the consumer and the measurement time (eg, 13:00 to 13:05).

  Next, the power amount totaling unit 306 totalizes the received power amount for each measurement unit time of each consumer for each electric power company (S1202). At this time, for example, a storage table 304 of the electric energy calculation server 103 stores a correspondence table (not shown) between an electric power company and a customer who is the customer, and the electric power company is referred to by referring to the table. The amount of power can be aggregated for each.

  And the electric energy totaling part 306 registers the total value of the measurement unit time for every electric power company totaled by S1202 in the demand performance table 313 (S1203).

  Next, FIG. 13 shows that in the power transmission / distribution command amount determination procedure S1103 shown in FIG. 11, the electric energy calculation server 103 performs real-time 13:00 to 13:30 from the electric power company to the power plant 101 for 30 minutes. It is the figure which showed the example of the processing flow in the case of determining the power transmission / distribution command amount used as a power transmission / distribution command. With reference to FIGS. 1 and 3, the power transmission / distribution command amount determination process according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 13.

  First, the power transmission / distribution command amount determination unit 307 of the power amount calculation server 103 reads the power amount, which is a demand record for each electric power company, from the demand record table 313 (S1301). In FIG. 13, for example, when the power transmission / distribution command of the electric power company A to the power plant 101 at 13:00 to 13:30 is given at 13:10, the data at 13:10 is 13: 0 The demand result data (power amount) of 13:05 and 13:05 to 13:10 is read from the demand result table 313.

  Next, the power transmission / distribution command amount determination unit 307 predicts the nearest demand amount per unit time based on the actual demand data read in S1301 (S1302). In FIG. 13, for example, the sum of the demand amount for 10 minutes from 13:00 to 13:05 and 13:05 to 13:10 of the electric power company A is calculated, and the estimated demand amount for 30 minutes is multiplied by 3 times. And

  Next, the transmission / distribution command amount determination unit 307 reads supplyable amount data (power amount) for each electric power company from the supplyable amount table 314 (S1303). In FIG. 13, for example, the suppliable amount at 13:00 to 13:30 of the electric utility A is read from the suppliable amount table 314.

  Next, the power transmission / distribution command amount determination unit 307 determines the amount of power required on the day from the predicted demand amount calculated in S1302 and the supplyable amount read in S1303, that is, from the electric power company to the power plant 101. A power transmission / distribution command amount to be a power transmission / distribution command is calculated (S1304). Here, the transmission / distribution command amount is a value obtained by subtracting the supplyable amount from the predicted demand amount.

  Then, the power transmission / distribution command amount determination unit 307 registers, in the power transmission / distribution command amount table 315, the power transmission / distribution command amount per unit time closest to each electric power company calculated in S1304 (S1305).

  In addition, calculation of the said predicted demand amount can also obtain | require by multiplying the demand performance data for 5 minutes 6 times, or doubling the demand performance data for 15 minutes.

  Next, FIG. 14 illustrates the power transmission / distribution command amount per unit time for each electric power provider calculated by the power amount calculation server 103 in the power transmission / distribution command amount determination process in the power generation amount calculation procedure S1104 illustrated in FIG. It is the figure which showed the example of the processing flow in the case of calculating the electric power generation amount of the power plant 101 based on this. With reference to FIGS. 1 and 3, the power generation amount calculation process according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 14.

  First, the power generation amount calculation unit 308 of the power amount calculation server 103 reads, from the transmission / distribution information storage table 312, the contract transaction amount (see FIG. 2) and the transmission / distribution priority order that the electric power company has previously notified the power transmission / distribution company (see FIG. 2). S1401). In FIG. 14, the contract transaction amount and power transmission / distribution priority for each electric power company at 13:30 to 13:30, which is the nearest unit time, are read into the memory 302.

  Next, the power generation amount calculation unit 308 reads the power transmission / distribution command amount for each electric power company from the power transmission / distribution command amount table 315 stored in the procedure shown in FIG. 13 (S1402). In FIG. 14, the power transmission / distribution command amount for each electric power company from 13:30 to 13:30, which is the nearest unit time, is read into the memory 302.

Then, the power generation amount calculation unit 308 calculates the amount of power to be generated by the power plant 101 based on the contract transaction amount and transmission / distribution priority read in S1401 and the transmission / distribution command amount read in S1402 for each electric power company. (S1403). For example, in FIG. 14, MAX (2000, 1410) + MIN (1500, 900) = 2900 kWh indicates the power generation amount that the power plant 101 should generate at 13:00:00 to 13:30. Here, the first term MAX (2000, 1410) is a contract transaction amount of 2000 kWh notified by the electric power company A having the highest power transmission / distribution priority to the power transmission / distribution company by noon the previous day (see FIG. 2), This means that the maximum value is taken out of the real-time power transmission / distribution command amount 1410 kWh from the operator A to the power plant 101, and MAX (2000, 1410) = 2000 kWh. In addition, the second term MIN (1500, 900) includes the contract transaction amount 1500 kWh notified by the electric power company B with the second highest transmission / distribution priority to the power transmission / distribution company by noon the day before, and This means that the minimum value of the real-time power transmission / distribution command amount 900 kWh to 101 is taken, and MIN (1500, 900) = 900 kWh.
In addition, when there are three or more electric power companies, it can be calculated in the same manner by the following formula.

  As described above, by repeating the processes shown in FIGS. 13 and 14 every unit time, it is possible to calculate the optimal power generation amount in consideration of the priority order in real time, and to suppress the cost due to excessive power generation at the power plant. Can do.

  Next, an embodiment for determining power transmission and distribution priority between a power plant and a plurality of electric utilities will be described with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating an example of a processing flow in the case where the power amount calculation server 103 determines transmission / distribution priority. With reference to FIGS. 1 and 3, the transmission / distribution priority determination process according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 15.

First, the relational expression estimation unit 309 of the power amount calculation server 103 acquires the date of the day on which the power transmission / distribution priority order is determined (S1501). For example, an electric power company transmits a power transmission / distribution amount (contract transaction amount) that is a power demand per unit time to the power amount calculation server 103, and a program (not shown) of the power amount calculation server 103 transmits power transmission / distribution information. After registration in the storage table 312, the date of the current day is obtained using an API (Application Program Interface).
In this embodiment, the unit time is 30 minutes.

  Next, the relational expression estimator 309 determines, from the transmission / distribution command amount table 315, 48 points in 30-minute units for each electric power company, that is, 24 hours of transmission / distribution commands for the past dates from the date acquired in S1501. The amount is read from the weather information storage table 316, and the weather information is read from the weather information storage table 316, and the calendar information including the day of the week and public holidays is read from the calendar storage table 317 (S1502).

Next, the relational expression estimation unit 309 estimates relational expressions representing the causal relationship between the actual weather value and the calendar information and the power transmission / distribution command amount at the time point of 30 minutes 48 from the data read in S1502 (S1503). ).
Examples of the relational expressions include mathematical expressions derived using the following multiple regression model, in which the coefficients a, b, c,..., K are estimated by the least square method. For the method of specifying the multiple regression model and its coefficients, the procedures described in “Akira Nagata, Masahiko Munechika: Introduction to Multivariate Analysis, Science Inc. (2001.04.10)” can be used.
Command amount = a * highest temperature + b * lowest temperature + (c (Monday), d (Tuesday), e (Wednesday), f (Thursday), g (Saturday), h (holiday)) + (i (clear), j (rain)) + k

  Next, the power transmission / distribution command amount prediction unit 310 of the power amount calculation server 103 stores the weather forecast value (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, weather) from the weather information storage table 316 in a calendar for the date on which the power transmission / distribution command amount is predicted. From the table 317, the data of the calendar information including the day of the week and the holidays are read (S1504).

  Next, the power transmission / distribution command amount prediction unit 310 substitutes the data on the date for predicting the power transmission / distribution command amount read in S1504 into the relational equation for 48 time points estimated in S1503, thereby predicting A predicted power transmission / distribution command amount for 48 time points of 30 minutes per day is calculated (S1505).

  In the calculation of the predicted power transmission / distribution command amount, the weather forecast value and the calendar information after that day are substituted into the relational expression estimated in S1503, and the probability distribution using the statistical value of the past predicted power transmission / distribution command amount is obtained. The predicted power transmission / distribution command amount may be calculated. For example, 1701 in FIG. 17 is an example of the probability distribution of the electric power company A, and 1702 is an example of the probability distribution of the electric power company B.

  Then, the priority order determination unit 311 of the power amount calculation server 103 determines the power transmission / distribution priority for each electric power company from the power transmission / distribution command amounts for 48 time points calculated in S1505 (S1506).

  Here, FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating an example of a detailed flow of a process (S1506) in which the power amount calculation server 103 determines the power transmission / distribution priority from the predicted power transmission / distribution command amount. With reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 3, the process (S1506) for determining the power transmission and distribution priority according to the present embodiment will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

  First, the priority order determination unit 311 of the power amount calculation server 103 reads the contract transaction amount for 48 time points for each electric power company from the transmission / distribution information storage table 312 for the predicted date (S1601).

  The priority order determination unit 311 reads a contract fee (a metered fee, a fixed fee, and a purchase fee) for each electric power company from the contract fee table 318 (S1602).

Here, the effect when an electric power company makes a purchase contract with a power plant will be described. That is, in the following cases, an electric power company can make a purchase contract with a power plant, so that the power plant can increase profits and the electric power company can reduce costs.
For example, it is assumed that the power plant 101 and the electric power company confirm the following transaction contents by noon on the day before the power delivery and notify the power transmission and distribution business.
Electricity company A: 50 MWh purchase from power plant 101 with priority 1st place Electricity company B: 50 MWh purchase from power station 101 with priority 2nd place In this case, It is assumed that the transaction volume is revised downward with the electric utility as follows.
Electricity company A: 30 MWh purchase from power station 101 with 1st priority Electricity company B: 10 MWh purchase from power station 101 with 2nd priority order Power station 101 generates 60 MWh, and the transmission and distribution company is 13:00 on the day From 13:30, 50 MWh will be delivered to the electric utility A, but 10 MWh will be delivered to the electric utility B, as contracted. At this time, the surplus 20 MWh of the electric power company A is generally taken over by the power transmission / distribution company. However, if electric power company A lowers the output of its power plant by 20 MWh, 50 MWh is delivered to electric power company A, and the profit of power plant 101 increases by the amount of power sold by 20 MWh. Also, for the electric utility company A, if the unit price of power purchased more than planned is lower than its own power generation cost, the cost can be reduced. If there is no purchase contract, the purchase fee is calculated as 0 yen.

  Based on the cases as described above, the priority order determination unit 311 sets the contract transaction volume for 48 times of the forecast date read in S1601, the contract fee read in S1602, and the forecast date for each electric power company. Based on the predicted transmission / distribution command amount for 48 time points in units of 30 minutes, the transmission / distribution priority order that maximizes the expected profit of the power plant 101 is determined (S1603). For example, among the electric power company A and the electric power company B, when the electric power transmission / distribution priority of the electric power company A is first and when the electric power transmission / distribution priority of the electric power company B is first, 48 time points respectively. Calculate the expected return and select the larger one. The calculation formula has the following examples. The power transmission / distribution priority N in the formula is N, and the electric utility is abbreviated as the operator.

(1) When the predicted transmission / distribution command amount of an electric power provider with the second highest transmission / distribution priority is> 0,
Expected revenue =
[Pay-for-use charge for first-ranking operator] * [Predicted transmission / distribution command amount for first-ranking company]
+ [Secondary service charge] * [Second power supply forecast transmission / distribution command]
+ [Purchase fee for first-ranking business operator]
* ([Contracted transaction volume of the first operator]-[Predicted transmission and distribution command amount of the first operator])
-[Power generation cost]
* ([Contracted transaction volume of 1st operator] + [Predicted transmission / distribution command volume of 2nd operator])
(2) When the predicted transmission / distribution command amount of the electric power provider with the second highest transmission / distribution priority is 0,
Expected revenue =
([Pay-per-use charge of first-ranking operator]-[Power generation cost])
* [Predicted transmission / distribution command volume of the top operator]

  Therefore, in the case of three or more electric utilities (N> 2), the following formula is obtained.

（３）送配電優先順位１位以外の電気事業者の予測送配電指令量＝０の場合、
期待収益＝
（［１位の事業者の従量料金］−［発電コスト］）
＊［１位の事業者の予測送配電指令量］

(3) When the predicted power transmission / distribution command amount of an electric power company other than the first power transmission / distribution priority is 0,
Expected revenue =
([Pay-per-use charge of first-ranking operator]-[Power generation cost])
* [Predicted transmission / distribution command amount of the top operator]

Further, in the determination of the power transmission / distribution priority, the power transmission / distribution priority may be determined so that the total profit including not only the power plant 101 but also the electric utility is the highest. For example, when considering only the amount obtained by the electric utility when the purchase fee is lower than the electric company's own power generation cost and the cost generated in the power plant 101 according to the amount of power generation, the calculation formula has the following example: .
When there are two electric utilities, it is as follows.
(1) When the predicted transmission / distribution command amount of an electric power provider with the second highest transmission / distribution priority is> 0,
([1st unit power generation unit price]-[Purchase price of 1st operator])
* ([Contracted transaction volume of the first operator]-[Predicted transmission and distribution command amount of the first operator])
-[Power generation cost]
* ([Contracted transaction volume of 1st operator] + [Predicted transmission / distribution command volume of 2nd operator])
(2) When the predicted transmission / distribution command amount of the electric power provider with the second highest transmission / distribution priority is 0,
-[Power generation cost] * [Predicted power transmission / distribution command amount of the # 1 operator]
When there are three or more electric power companies, it is as follows.

（３）送配電優先順位１位以外の電気事業者の予測送配電指令量＝０の場合、
−［発電コスト］＊［1位の事業者の予測送配電指令量］

(3) When the predicted power transmission / distribution command amount of an electric power company other than the first power transmission / distribution priority is 0,
-[Power generation cost] * [Predicted power transmission / distribution command amount of the top operator]

  The priority order determination unit 311 updates the transmission / distribution priority for 48 time points for each electric power company determined in S1603 to the transmission / distribution information storage table 312 (S1604).

  As described above, when the processes shown in FIGS. 15 and 16 are performed, the expected profit of the power plant 101 and the overall profit of the power plant 101 and the electric power company can be maximized.

  The determination of the power transmission / distribution priority according to the present embodiment can also be used in the real-time transaction.

It is the figure which showed the example of the structure of the electric energy calculation system to which this embodiment is applied. It is the figure which showed the example of the time schedule of the electric power company, power transmission / distribution company, and power plant of the electric energy calculation system to which this embodiment is applied. It is the figure which showed the example of the function structure of the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is the figure which showed the example of the structure of the demand performance table with which the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention is provided. It is the figure which showed the example of the structure of the supply possible quantity table with which the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention is provided. It is the figure which showed the example of the structure of the power transmission / distribution command amount table with which the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention is provided. It is the figure which showed the example of the structure of the power transmission / distribution information storage table with which the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention is provided. It is the figure which showed the example of the structure of the weather information storage table with which the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention is provided. It is the figure which showed the example of the structure of the calendar storage table with which the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention is provided. It is the figure which showed the example of the structure of the contract fee table with which the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention is provided. It is the figure which showed the example of the flow of the procedure required in order to implement | achieve the real-time electric power transaction between a power station and a some electric utility in embodiment of this invention. It is the figure which showed the example of the processing flow of the electric energy totaling part of the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is the figure which showed the example of the processing flow of the power transmission / distribution command amount determination part of the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is the figure which showed the example of the processing flow of the electric power generation amount calculation part of the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is the figure which showed the example of the processing flow of the process part 2 for determining the power transmission and distribution priority of the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is the figure which showed the example of the processing flow of the priority determination part of the process part 2 of the electric energy calculation server which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is the figure which showed the example of probability distribution of the prediction power transmission / distribution command amount which concerns on embodiment of this invention.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 101 Power plant 103 Power amount calculation server 304 Storage device 306 Power amount totaling unit 307 Power transmission / distribution command amount determination unit 308 Power generation amount calculation unit 309 Relational expression estimation unit 310 Power transmission / distribution command amount prediction unit 311 Priority order determination unit 312 Power transmission / distribution information storage Table 313 Demand record table 314 Supplyable amount table 315 Power transmission / distribution command amount table 316 Weather information storage table 317 Calendar storage table 318 Contract fee table

Claims (11)

Based on the scheduled power demand of the power retailer, the power transmission / distribution priority that is the priority of power transmission / distribution to the retailer is determined, and the power is calculated using the determined priority. An electric energy calculation device,
The power amount calculation device includes:
Power transmission / distribution to the power plant calculated from aggregated data obtained by summing up the power consumption of power consumers who are customers of the retailer for each retailer and power information that can be supplied by the retailer itself Stores command results information having command results for each retailer, stores weather information having information on past weather results and future weather forecasts, stores calendar information having information on days of the week and holidays, Furthermore, a storage unit storing power transaction contract fee information determined in advance between the power plant and the retailer,
A relational expression estimating unit that reads the command result information, the weather information, and the calendar information from the storage unit and estimates a relational expression that represents a causal relationship between the weather information and the calendar information and the command result information; ,
Reading the meteorological information and the calendar information from the storage unit, and substituting it into the relational expression estimated by the relational expression estimation unit, thereby calculating a predicted power transmission / distribution command amount on an arbitrary date And
Using the power transaction contract fee information and the predicted transmission / distribution command amount, a priority determination unit that calculates the expected return of the power plant and determines the transmission / distribution priority so that the expected return is maximized; Providing
An electric energy calculation device characterized by the above. A power amount calculation device that calculates a power generation amount of a power plant based on a planned power demand amount of a power retailer,
An watt-hour meter that measures the amount of power used by a power consumer who is a customer of the retailer is connected to the power amount calculation device,
The power amount calculation device includes:
Information on the amount of power that can be supplied by the retailer itself is stored, and the retailer notifies the power transmission / distribution company that transmits and distributes power from the power plant to the power consumers. A storage unit that stores transmission / distribution priority in which the power transmission / distribution company transmits / distributes power from the power plant to the power consumer;
An electric energy totaling unit that aggregates the electric power consumption obtained from the electric energy meter for each retailer;
The retailer is required on the day by calculating the predicted demand amount of the retailer per unit time from the aggregated data collected by the power amount counting unit and subtracting the power amount information from the result. A power transmission / distribution command amount determination unit for calculating the power transmission / distribution command amount for each retailer;
A power generation amount calculation unit that calculates a power generation amount of the power plant using the contract transaction amount, the transmission / distribution priority order, and the transmission / distribution command amount for each retailer calculated by the transmission / distribution command amount determination unit; Preparing,
An electric energy calculation device characterized by the above. The power transmission / distribution command amount prediction unit
By reading the weather information and the calendar information from the storage unit and substituting it into the relational expression estimated by the relational expression estimation unit, a probability distribution of a predicted power transmission / distribution command amount at an arbitrary date is calculated,
The priority determining unit
Using the power transaction contract fee information and the calculated probability distribution, calculating the expected revenue of the power plant, determining the transmission and distribution priority so that the expected revenue is maximized,
The power amount calculation apparatus according to claim 1. The priority determining unit
Based on the power transaction contract fee information and the power transmission / distribution command amount calculated by the power transmission / distribution command amount prediction unit, the expected profit of the entire power plant and the retailer is calculated, and the expected profit is maximized. Determining transmission and distribution priorities,
The power amount calculation apparatus according to claim 1. The priority determining unit
Using the power transaction contract fee information and the calculated probability distribution, calculate the expected revenue for the entire power plant and retailer, and determine the transmission and distribution priority so that the expected revenue is maximized ,
The power amount calculation apparatus according to claim 3. Based on the scheduled power demand of the power retailer, the power transmission / distribution priority that is the priority of power transmission / distribution to the retailer is determined, and the power is calculated using the determined priority. An electric energy calculation method executed in an electric energy calculator,
The electric energy calculation device
Power transmission / distribution to the power plant calculated from aggregated data obtained by summing up the power consumption of power consumers who are customers of the retailer for each retailer and power information that can be supplied by the retailer itself Read command result information having a command result for each retailer, read weather information having information on past weather results and future weather forecasts, read calendar information having information on days of the week and holidays, and read the weather Estimating a relational expression representing the causal relationship between the information and the calendar information and the command record information,
By reading the weather information and the calendar information and substituting it into the estimated relational expression, the predicted power transmission / distribution command amount at an arbitrary date is calculated,
The expected revenue of the power plant is calculated using the power transaction contract fee information determined in advance between the power plant and the retailer and the predicted transmission / distribution command amount, and the expected revenue is maximized. Determining the power transmission and distribution priority as follows:
A characteristic electric energy calculation method. A power meter is connected to calculate the amount of power generated by the power plant based on the planned power demand of the power retailer and to measure the power consumption of the power consumer who is the customer of the retailer. An electric energy calculation method executed in an electric energy calculator,
The power amount calculation device includes:
The power usage acquired from the electricity meter is tabulated for each retailer,
By calculating the estimated demand amount of the retailer per unit time from the aggregated data, and subtracting the amount of power information that can be supplied by the retailer from the result, the retailer can Calculate the required amount of power transmission and distribution for each retailer,
Contract amount per unit time notified by the retailer to the power transmission / distribution company that transmits / distributes power from the power plant to the power consumer, the power transmission / distribution business operator from the power plant to the power consumer Calculating the power generation amount of the power plant using the power transmission / distribution priority order for power transmission / distribution and the power transmission / distribution command amount;
An electric energy calculation method characterized by the above. The power amount calculation device includes:
By reading the weather information and the calendar information and substituting it into the estimated relational expression, the probability distribution of the predicted power transmission / distribution command amount at an arbitrary date is calculated,
Using the power transaction contract fee information and the calculated probability distribution, calculating the expected revenue of the power plant, determining the transmission and distribution priority so that the expected revenue is maximized,
The power amount calculation method according to claim 6. The power amount calculation device includes:
Based on the power transaction contract fee information and the predicted transmission / distribution command amount, the expected profit of the entire power plant and the retailer is calculated, and the transmission / distribution priority order is determined so that the expected profit is maximized. ,
The power amount calculation method according to claim 6. The power amount calculation device includes:
Using the power transaction contract fee information and the calculated probability distribution, calculate the expected revenue for the entire power plant and retailer, and determine the transmission and distribution priority so that the expected revenue is maximized ,
The power amount calculation method according to claim 8.   An electric energy calculation program for causing a computer to execute the electric energy calculation method according to any one of claims 6 to 10.

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