JP2000293582A - Production management device, production management system, production planning method, and storage medium - Google Patents

Abstract

(57) [Summary] [PROBLEMS] To provide a production management system capable of accurately and efficiently drafting a production plan on the production side by a mathematical algorithm. SOLUTION: A first safety stock amount of a sales side 110 (j) is generated in a first fixed cycle (period of a period required from when an order for a product is made to when it can be actually sold). Forecasting taking into account the forecast error, the second
The safety stock quantity is calculated by taking into account the prediction error that occurs during the second fixed cycle (such as the cycle of the time required to procure materials for producing goods and actually deliver the goods). Forecasting is performed, and the forecasted production amount on the production side 130 is determined from these prediction results.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to, for example, a production management apparatus, a production management system, a production planning method, and a method for performing production and inventory management on the production side of a product by prediction in supply chain management (SCM). The present invention relates to a storage medium in which processing steps for performing the processing are stored in a computer-readable manner.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In recent years, a so-called supply chain management (SCM), which is a management form for producing and selling goods, has been widely adopted. In this system, a product produced at a factory side passes through a distribution channel (a store, a wholesale place, etc., which is hereinafter referred to as a “sale side”) and reaches the consumer's hand. Production and sales plans are made by prediction. Specifically, for example, in order to efficiently and efficiently distribute the products produced at the factory side, the sales side predicts the next sales volume based on the results (actual results) of past sales volume and the like. Make a sales plan. On the other hand, the factory side makes a production plan by predicting the next production volume based on the sales plan on the sales side, and instructs the production of products according to the production plan. At this time, a production plan is set up with a sufficient production amount in order to avoid an unexpected shortage. Various mathematical algorithms are currently used in such forecasts for sales planning and production planning.

[0003]

However, on the production side of a factory or the like, a production plan based on the sales plan of the sales side is made using various mathematical algorithms as described above. In many cases, experience or the like depends on the amount of margin (hereinafter, referred to as “safety stock amount”) for avoiding stockouts. As a result, there arises a problem that the stock amount on the production side inevitably increases, and accurate prediction cannot be made at present.

[0004] More specifically, as shown in FIG. 7, first, the production side sets up a production plan, and then procures materials for the target commodity in order to manufacture the target commodity in accordance with the production plan. At this time, a larger amount of material is procured in consideration of the safety stock amount as described above. Thus, the material of the product to be manufactured is obtained, and then the actual manufacturing stage is started. Here, the period from the planning of the production plan to the start of the production of the target product after the procurement of the material is referred to as the “procurement lead time”. The procurement lead time is a fixed production preparation period required to enter the manufacturing stage of the target product, and may be longer depending on the product to be manufactured. Also, when it is necessary to maintain the manufacturing machine or to secure employees (parts, etc.), the time is increased accordingly. Therefore, after the procurement lead time as described above has elapsed, the production of the product is started, and the product can be shipped to the sales side. Here, the period from the start of production until the product can be shipped is referred to as "production lead time".
Say

[0005] In comparison with the production side described above, the maintenance side of the sales side does not require much maintenance of the machine and the securing of personnel, and it is sufficient to consider only the period for packing the goods. A sales plan can be made with a cycle shorter than the lead time. That is, the sales side can change the sales plan in a cycle shorter than the cycle of the procurement / production lead time on the production side.

[0006] From the above, the cycle of making a production plan on the production side (the cycle of procurement / production lead time)
There is a difference between the sales planning cycle on the sales side and the production side, therefore, makes an accurate production plan based on the sales plan established on the sales side in a shorter cycle than the production planning cycle. That was very difficult. In particular, as for the safety stock amount and the like in order to avoid any shortage, it is necessary to rely on experience and the like, and as a result, there is a problem that the stock amount inevitably increases.

Therefore, the present invention has been made to eliminate the above-mentioned drawbacks. Even when the cycle of drafting a production plan on the production side is longer than the cycle of drafting a sales plan on the sales side, the present invention is directed to the present invention. A computer capable of reading a production management device, a production management system, a production planning method, and a processing step for executing the same, which can accurately and efficiently draft a production plan on the production side by using a mathematical algorithm. It is an object of the present invention to provide a storage medium stored in a storage medium.

[0008]

For such a purpose,
The first invention predicts a sales amount of a product according to a first prediction cycle, and uses a sales side that sells the product according to a first fixed cycle and a second side using prediction information on the sales side. A production management apparatus for the production side of a system including: a production side that predicts a production amount of a commodity according to a prediction cycle and produces a commodity according to a second fixed cycle that is larger than the first fixed cycle. A first safety stock amount of the goods held by the selling side is predicted in consideration of a prediction error generated during the first fixed cycle, and a second safety stock amount of the goods held by the production side is estimated.
And a prediction means for predicting the safety stock quantity of the production side in consideration of a prediction error occurring in the period of the second fixed cycle, and determining the predicted production quantity on the production side from the prediction results. .

[0009] The second invention is the above-mentioned first invention, wherein:
The prediction means predicts the first safety stock amount and the second safety stock amount by a predetermined calculation.

In a third aspect, in the second aspect,
The predetermined calculation includes a calculation using a standard deviation of a variance in the probability distribution.

In a fourth aspect based on the first aspect,
The forecasting means calculates a delivery amount to the selling side,

[0012]

(Equation 5)

[0013] The production amount on the production side is predicted by

[0014]

(Equation 6)

It is characterized in that it is predicted by the following calculation.

According to a fifth aspect based on the first aspect,
The prediction means is characterized in that a difference between the first safety stock amount and the second safety stock amount is determined as a predicted production amount on the production side.

In a sixth aspect based on the first aspect,
The prediction means predicts the first safety stock amount for each of the plurality of sales sides, and calculates the predicted production amount on the production side from the sum of the prediction results and the first safety stock amount. Is determined.

According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, the sales amount of a product is predicted in accordance with a first prediction cycle, and the sales side that sells the product in accordance with the first fixed period is used, and the prediction information on the sales side is used. A production side for predicting a production amount of the commodity according to a second prediction cycle and producing the commodity according to a second fixed cycle that is larger than the first fixed cycle; Has the function of the production management device according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, the sales amount of the product is predicted in accordance with the first prediction cycle, and the production information of the product is predicted in accordance with the second prediction cycle using the prediction information. A production planning method on a production side in which a product is produced in accordance with a second fixed cycle that is longer than a first fixed cycle in which a seller sells a product, wherein the first prediction cycle and the first fixed cycle. A first safety stock amount calculating step of obtaining a first safety stock amount held by the selling side in consideration of a prediction error generated during the first fixed cycle period by a predetermined calculation using A second calculation of the second safety stock amount held on the production side taking into account a prediction error occurring during the period of the second fixed cycle by a predetermined calculation using the second forecast cycle and the second fixed cycle. The safety stock amount calculation step of 2 and the above From each calculation result of the first safety stock amount calculation step and the second safety stock amount calculation step, characterized in that it comprises a determination step of determining the predicted production of the above production side.

According to a ninth invention, in the above-mentioned eighth invention,
The predetermined calculation includes a calculation using a standard deviation of a variance in the probability distribution.

In a tenth aspect based on the eighth aspect, the first safety stock amount calculating step comprises:

[0022]

(Equation 7)

Is executed as the above predetermined operation,
The second safety stock amount calculation step includes:

[0024]

(Equation 8)

The above-mentioned operation is executed as the above-mentioned predetermined operation.

In an eleventh aspect based on the eighth aspect, the determining step determines the difference between the first safety stock amount and the second safety stock amount as a predicted production amount on the production side. It is characterized by including the step of performing.

In a twelfth aspect based on the eighth aspect, the first safety stock amount calculating step includes a step of calculating the first safety stock amount for each of the plurality of sellers. The 2nd safety stock amount calculation step includes a step of calculating the second safety stock amount on the entire production side by using the sum total of the plurality of sales side prediction information.

According to a thirteenth aspect, the present invention is a storage medium in which the processing steps of the production planning method according to any one of claims 8 to 12 are stored so as to be readable by a computer.

[0029]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

The present invention is applied to, for example, a commodity distribution system 100 as shown in FIG. This merchandise distribution system 100 includes a plurality of sales points 110 (1), 110 (2),.
(J),... 110 (l), and a factory (production side) 130 that manufactures and ships a certain product,
0 can communicate with each other.

The production side 130 sells the sales points 110
(1), 110 (2), ..., 110 (j), ...
A main center 131 to which various data are given from 110 (l) via a network;
(For example, a warehouse that manages products) 132 and a manufacturing department (for example, a factory that actually manufactures products)
133. In addition, the main center 131
Selling points 110 (1), 110 (2), ..., 1
10 (j),... 110 (l), a prediction function 131a for predicting a production amount or the like by a mathematical algorithm using data from the data, and a production plan drafting for producing a production plan based on a prediction result by the prediction function 131a. And a function 131b, and these functions are realized by, for example, a CPU.

On the other hand, sales points 110 (1), 110
(2),..., 110 (j),... 110 (l) each transmit data (POS data) based on POS (Point Of Sales System) to the main center 131 of the production side. It has been made like that. Specifically, a predetermined cycle (here, as an example, a one-week cycle)
, The sales volume is predicted based on the results (actual results) of the past sales volume and the like, and a sales plan is made, and the sales plan is calculated based on the sales forecast data [n1 (X)], [n2 (X)],. nl (X)] to the main center 131, and sales performance data n1 (X), n2 (X),..., nl (X) to the main center 131.

The target product is not specified, but may be any product manufactured from materials (raw materials) and sold via a distribution channel.

In the above-described commodity distribution system 100, a production plan drafted on the production side 130 will be described first.

For example, as shown in FIG. 2, in week S (0) (this week), a production plan is made by predicting the production amount from the next week S (1) to week S (k). . Here, a cycle of making a production plan based on this prediction (hereinafter, referred to as a “production plan making cycle”) is an example of a one-week cycle. In addition, in order to predict the production amount at this time, the sales points 110
(1), 110 (2), ..., 110 (j), ...
Sales performance data n1 (-1), n2 (-1),..., Nl (-1) of the S (-1) week (last week) sent from 110 (l)
Or sales forecast data for each week [n1 (X)], [n2 (X)],
.., [nl (X)] (X: -1 to k) are used. Then, in the next S (1) week, a production plan is made by predicting the production amount from the next S (2) week to the S (k + 1) week. At this time, the production amount is predicted by selling points 110
(1), 110 (2), ..., 110 (j), ...
110 (l), sales performance data n1 (0), n2 (0),..., Nl (0) of the S (0) week (last week) and sales prediction data [n1 (X)], [n2 (X)], ...,
[Nl (X)] is used. Thereafter, in a similar manner, the production plan is established by predicting the production amount for k weeks every week in accordance with the production planning cycle (one week).

Here, a case where the production planning cycle and the sales planning cycle at the selling point are the same will be described. If the above periods are different from each other, the forecast period of the production amount and the total period of the actual sales amount are the same. For example, even if the planning is performed every month, the production forecast is performed on a weekly basis. And make it the same as one week of the total period of sales results. Further, when the production cycle prediction cycle differs from the sales performance aggregation cycle, at least one of a safety coefficient for each sales point and a safety coefficient on the production side, which will be described later, may be adjusted.

That is, as shown in FIG. 3, in week S (i) (this week), the sales points 110 (1), 110
(2),..., 110 (j),... 110 (l), sales result data n1 (i-1), n2 ( i-1),..., nl (i-1) and sales forecast data [n1 (X)], [n2 (X)],.
(X)] from the next S (i + 1) week (next week) to S (k)
A production plan is made by individually predicting the production amount for k weeks up to the week. Here, in the next S (i + 1) week (next week), the product is actually manufactured according to the production plan established in the S (i) week (this week). The production plan for the +1) week is finalized when the production plan for the S (i) week is established. The production plan for the subsequent weeks from the S (i + 2) week can be changed when the production plan is made in the next S (i + 1) week (can be changed according to the actual results of this week) Because
It is undecided when the production plan for the week S (i) is made.

Next, an explanation will be given of the estimation of the production amount on the production side 130.

For example, as shown in FIG. 4, in the week S (0) (this week), the sales point 110 (1) is shifted from the point S (-).
1) Sales forecast data for week (last week) [n1 (-1)] (forecast data in sales plan established in the past according to sales cycle)
And the sales result data n1 (-1) of the S (-1) week,
Sales forecast data [n1 (0)], [n1 (1)],..., [N1 (k)] from the (0) week (this week) to the S (k) week are sent. Similarly, from the sales point 110 (2), sales forecast data [n2 (-1)] for the S (-1) week (last week)
And the sales result data n2 (-1) of the S (-1) week,
Sales forecast data [n2 (0)], [n2 (1)],..., [N2 (k)] from the (0) week (this week) to the S (k) week are sent. Other selling points 110 (3), ..., 11
Similarly, from 0 (l), sales forecast data for the S (-1) week (last week), sales performance data for the S (-1) week,
Sales forecast data from week (0) (this week) to week S (k) is sent. Therefore, on the production side 130, the total production amount (total production amount) based on the forecast in the S (-1) week (last week) is based on the sales forecast data [n1 (-1)] from the sales point 110 (1). Sales forecast data [n2 (-1)] from point 110 (2),..., Sales point 110
(L) sum of sales forecast data [nl (-1)] "
[N (-1)] ", and the actual production amount in the S (-1) week (last week) is sales performance data n1 (-1) from sales point 110 (1), sales point 110 (2) , The sales performance data n2 (-1),..., The sales performance data nl (-1) from the sales point 110 (l) are summed up, and the result is "N (-1)". This week's forecast is based on sales forecast data [n1
(0)], the sales forecast data [n2 (0)] from the sales point 110 (2),..., The sales forecast data [nl (0)] from the sales point 110 (l). (0)] "
Similarly, for the total production amount based on the forecasts for the following weeks, the sales forecast data sent from each sales point for each week is summed up, and “[N (1)]”, “[N
(2)] ”,...,“ [N (k)] ”.

Therefore, the production side 130 sets the prediction function 131
a and the production planning function 131b, the respective production amounts from the S (1) week (next week) to the S (k) week in the S (0) week (this week) are predicted as follows. .

For example, when focusing on one sales point (j), as shown in FIG. 5, sales prediction data from the week S (1) to the week S (k) is obtained from the sales point (j). [nj (0)], [nj (1)],..., [nj (k)]. These sales forecast data [nj (0)], [nj
(1)],..., [Nj (k)], the delivery amount to the selling point (j) in each week from the S (1) week to the S (k) week is

[0042]

(Equation 9)

Are represented by the following equations (1′-1) to (2 ′).

That is, regarding the delivery amount for the selling point (j) in the S (1) week, the selling point (j)
From the sum of the sales forecast data [n1 (1)] for the S (1) week and the safety stock amount [mj (1)], the actual stock amount at the selling point (j) is subtracted. A result is obtained (see the above equation (1′-1)). For the delivery amount for the selling point (j) in the next S (2) week, the safety stock is calculated based on the sales forecast data [n1 (2)] for the S (2) week from the selling point (j). From the sum of the quantity [mj (2)], the stock quantity (safety stock quantity [mj (1)] in the above equation (1′-1)) predicted to be at the selling point (j) is calculated. The result is subtracted (see the above equation (1′-2)). Similarly, for the subsequent weeks, the delivery amount for the sales point (j) in the week S (X) is calculated based on the sales amount from the sales point (j).
(X) From the sum of the weekly sales forecast data [n1 (X)] and the safety stock amount [mj (X)], the stock amount predicted to be at the sales point (j) (the previous week's Safety stock [m
j (X-1)]).

Here, the above equations (1′-1) and (1 ′)
The safety stock amount [mj (X)] used in -2) uses the “standard deviation (mean square error)” of the variance in the probability distribution in statistics as shown in the above equation (2 ′). ing. The “mean square error” here is obtained from the sales forecast data of the last week from the sales point (j) and the sales performance data corresponding thereto, and is an error (prediction error) resulting from the reliability of the prediction at the sales point (j). ). Also, "a
“j” is a safety coefficient preset for the selling point (j). “Fixed period 1” is an order for a product at the selling point (j) to the production side 130 and the product is actually ordered. Is a cycle of a fixed period necessary until the stock is received and the sales are executed.The “forecast cycle 1” is a result (actual) of the past sales quantity and the like at the sales point (j).
Is a cycle (corresponding to the above-mentioned “predetermined cycle”, here a one-week cycle) in which the sales volume is predicted based on the sales amount.

Therefore, in the above equation (2 ′), the mean square error is multiplied by “fixed period 1 / prediction period 1”.
For example, at the sales point (j), the sales volume is predicted every week (prediction period 1), but after a product is actually ordered, a fixed period 1 of two weeks is required until sales can be performed.
Is required, the safety stock amount for the sales point (j) in which the prediction error up to two weeks ahead is added can be obtained.

As described above, by using the above equation (2 ′) as the safety stock amount in the above equations (1′-1) and (1′-2), the sales point (j) can be The delivery amount in each week from the S (1) th week to the S (k) th week can be predicted while covering the prediction error (blur) occurring during the fixed period 1. Similarly, for each of the other selling points, the delivery error of each week from the week S (1) to the week S (k) is covered while covering the prediction error (blur) occurring during the fixed period 1 in the same manner. The amount can be predicted. Note that the safety coefficient aj, the fixed period 1, and the predicted period 1 in the above equation (2 ′) may be unique to each sales point.

On the other hand, regarding the production amount on the production side 130,

[0049]

(Equation 10)

Are represented by the following equations (3′-1) to (4 ′).

That is, regarding the production amount in the S (1) week, the total production amount [N (1)] (= [n1 (1)] +
[N2 (1)] +... + [Nl (1)]) plus the total safe stock [M (1)] minus the stock that is actually on the production side 130 (The above formula (3′-1)
reference). Further, regarding the production amount in the next S (2) week, the total production amount [N (2)] (= [n1 (2)] + [n2
(2)] +... + [Nl (2)]) plus the total safety stock amount [M (2)], the stock amount expected to be on the production side 130 (see above). The result is obtained by subtracting the total safety stock amount [M (1)] in equation (3′-1) (see equation (3′-2) above). Similarly for the following weeks,
Regarding the production amount in the S (X) week, the total production amount [N (X)] (= [n1 (X)] + [n2 (X)] +... + [N
l (X)]) plus the total safety stock [M (X)], the inventory that is expected to be on the producer 130 (the previous week's total safety stock [M (X- 1) The result is obtained by subtracting]).

Here, the above equations (3'-1) and (3-
The total safety stock [M (X)] used in 2 ') is
Similarly to the safety stock amount [mj (X)] for the selling point represented by the above equation (2 '), the above-mentioned "standard deviation (mean square error)" is used as shown in the above equation (4'). ing. Here, the “mean square error” indicates an error (prediction error) which is obtained from the production amount predicted in the last week and the actual production amount (actual result) corresponding thereto, and arises from the reliability of the prediction on the production side 130. Also, “a” indicates the production side 130
Is a safety factor set in advance. The “fixed cycle 2” is a cycle of a fixed period necessary for the production side 130 to procure materials for manufacturing a product and start manufacturing, and then to be ready to actually ship the product (the above-described procurement / (Corresponding to the production lead time), which is generally longer than the fixed period 1 at each selling point described above. The “prediction cycle 2” is a cycle (a production planning cycle, here a week cycle) in which the production side is predicted on the production side 130 on the basis of data sent from each sales point and a production plan is created. is there.

Therefore, in the above equation (4 ′), the mean square error is multiplied by “fixed period 2 / predicted period 2”.
For example, on the production side 130, the production amount is predicted every week (prediction cycle 2), but the production is started after actually procuring the materials, and the production amount is fixed for three weeks until the product can be shipped. When the cycle 2 is necessary, it is possible to obtain the total safety stock amount in which the prediction error (blur) up to three weeks ahead is added.

As described above, by using the above equation (4 ′) as the safety stock amount in the above equations (3′-1) and (3′-2), the prediction error occurring during the fixed period 2 It is possible to predict the production amount of each week from the week S (1) to the week S (k) while covering (blur).

By the way, the safety stock amount of each selling point obtained by the above equation (2 ') takes into account the prediction error of one fixed cycle, and the production side 130 obtained by the above equation (4'). Is the total safety stock amount in consideration of the prediction error of the fixed cycle 2 including the fixed cycle 1. That is, the total safety stock amount on the production side 130 according to the above equation (4 ′) includes, in addition to the prediction error of the fixed cycle 1, the prediction error of the fixed cycle 2 longer than the fixed cycle 1. I have. In other words, it is a fairly broad estimate. Therefore, the above equation (4 ′)
When the production is performed with the total safety stock amount of the above, the stock amount of the difference between the fixed period 1 and the fixed period 2 is accumulated. Therefore, the inventory amount to be actually held on the production side 130 may be an inventory amount corresponding to the difference between the fixed period 1 and the fixed period 2, and here, the safety of each sales point according to the above equation (2 ′) is used. The difference between the total stock amount and the total safety stock amount according to the above equation (4 ′) is obtained, and the difference is set as the total safety stock amount actually held at the production side 130.

FIG. 6 shows a processing procedure for predicting the production amount on the production side 130 as described above. Here, it is assumed that the respective production amounts from the S (1) week (next week) to the S (k) week in the S (0) week (this week) are predicted. This prediction is realized by the prediction function 131a and the production planning function 131b of the production side 130 executing the processing according to the procedure of FIG.

Step S201: First, each sales point 110 (1), 110 (2),..., 110
(J),... 110 (l), the sales forecast data and sales result data for each week as shown in FIG. 4 are collected.

Step S202: Next, for each sales point, from the sales forecast data of the last week (S (-1) th week) from the target sales point obtained in step S201 and the sales performance data corresponding thereto, The mean square error used in the above equation (2 ′) is obtained. Similarly, for the production side 130, the mean square error used in the above equation (4 ′) is calculated based on the sales performance up to the last week (S (-1) th week).
It is determined from the predicted production volume and the sales performance for the last week.

Step S203: Then, as shown in FIG. 4, for each week from the S (1) week (next week) to the S (k) week, the sales forecast data from each sales point is summed up. Total production [N (1)], [N (2)],
.., [N (k)] are obtained.

Step S204: The processing from step S204 is executed for each week from the S (1) th week (next week) to the S (k) th week. Here, the target week is the S (X) week. First, for each selling point, the mean square error obtained in step S202, a preset safety coefficient aj, a fixed cycle 1, and a predicted cycle 1
, [M1 (X)], [m2 (X)],..., [Ml (X)].

Step S205: Next, for the production side 130, the mean square error obtained in step S202,
The total safety stock amount [M (X)] is obtained by performing the calculation of the above equation (4 ') using the preset safety coefficient a, fixed period 2, and prediction period 2.

Step S206: Next, step S20
Safety stock amount for each selling point obtained in 4 [m1
(X)], [m2 (X)],..., [Ml (X)] and the total safety stock [M (X)] of the production side 130 obtained in step S205. Take.

Step S207: Then, step S2
06 is determined as the actual total safety stock amount on the production side 130, and the difference is determined using the above equation (1 ′).
-1) and the calculation as shown in the above equation (1'-2) are performed to predict the actual production amount. This is the actual forecast production in week S (X).

Step S208: The processing of steps S204 to S207 as described above is executed for each week from the S (1) th week (next week) to the S (k) th week. When the processes for all the weeks have been completed, a production plan based on the predicted production amount from the S (1) th week (next week) to the S (k) th week is obtained, and according to this production plan,
It instructs the manufacturing unit 133 to manufacture a product and instructs the management unit 132 to perform inventory management.

As described above, in the present embodiment, the production side 130 estimates the production volume in the S (0) week (this week) from the S (1) week (next week) to the S (k) week. At this time, the amount of safety stock at each point of sale is calculated using a fixed cycle 1 (ordering a product after ordering the item) at each point of sale by using the calculation by the above equations (2 ′) and (4 ′). In addition to covering the prediction error (blurring) that occurs during the period required for the product to be ready for sale, the production side 1
The total safety stock at 30 is calculated from week S (1) to week S (k) while covering the prediction error (blur) occurring during fixed cycle 2 (procurement / production lead time) at production side 130.
You can predict the production of each week of the week. Therefore, the cycle (procurement / production lead time) required for the production side 130 to procure materials for manufacturing the product and actually ship the product is determined by the product at each sales point. Even if the period is longer than the period required from the time the order is placed until the product can be sold, the production side 130 can make an accurate production plan based on the sales plan at the sales point. In particular, in the present embodiment, the safety stock amount is obtained not by relying on experience or the like as in the conventional case but by a mathematical algorithm based on the above equation (2 ′) or the above equation (4 ′). A simple production plan can be made, and efficient inventory management without waste can be performed.

An object of the present invention is to supply a storage medium storing program codes of software for realizing the functions of the host and the terminal of the above-described embodiment to a system or an apparatus, and to provide a computer (a computer) of the system or the apparatus. It is needless to say that the present invention can also be achieved by a CPU or an MPU) reading and executing a program code stored in a storage medium. In this case, the program code itself read from the storage medium implements the functions of the present embodiment, and the storage medium storing the program code constitutes the present invention. ROM, as a storage medium for supplying the program code,
Floppy disk, hard disk, optical disk, magneto-optical disk, CD-ROM, CD-R, magnetic tape,
A non-volatile memory card or the like can be used. By executing the program code read out by the computer, not only the functions of the present embodiment are realized, but also the OS and the like running on the computer perform actual processing based on the instructions of the program code. It goes without saying that a part or all of the above is performed and the function of each embodiment is realized by the processing. Further, after the program code read from the storage medium is written to a memory provided in an extension function board inserted into the computer or a function extension unit connected to the computer, the function extension is performed based on the instruction of the program code. It goes without saying that a CPU or the like provided in the board or the function expansion unit performs part or all of the actual processing, and the processing realizes the functions of the present embodiment.

[0067]

As described above, according to the present invention, the first safety stock amount to be held at the sales side (a store, a wholesale store, or the like) is determined by the first fixed period (after the order of the goods is placed). Forecasts taking into account the prediction error that occurs during the period of the period required until the product can be actually sold, etc.), and the second safety stock amount to be held by the production side (such as a factory that manufactures products) is calculated. , Taking into account the prediction error that occurs during the second fixed cycle (such as the cycle of the time it takes to procure materials to produce a product, start manufacturing the product, and actually deliver the product). And a predicted production amount on the production side is determined from these prediction results. In addition, when there are a plurality of sales sides, the first safety stock amount of each sales side is predicted,
Estimate the total second safety stock on the production side (the amount of stock that can be handled by all sales sides), and calculate the first safety stock amount on each sales side and the second safety stock amount on the production side. From the safety stock amount, the total predicted production amount on the production side is determined.

More specifically, for example, the first safety stock amount to be held by a certain sales side is obtained by calculation according to equation (2). In this equation (2), since the standard deviation (mean square error) is multiplied by “fixed period 1 / prediction period 1”, for example, the sales side predicts the sales amount every week (see If a fixed period of two weeks (first fixed period) is required from the time when the product is actually ordered to the time when it can be sold, the prediction error up to two weeks ahead is added. It is possible to obtain the safety stock amount for the selling side. Further, the second safety stock amount to be held on the production side is obtained by calculation in accordance with equation (4). In the equation (4), since the mean square error is multiplied by “fixed period 2 / predicted period 2”, for example, on the production side, the production amount is predicted every week (second prediction period). If a fixed cycle of 3 weeks (a second fixed cycle) is required until the product can be shipped after starting the production after actually procuring the materials, the prediction error (3 weeks ahead) Shake)
Is added to the total safety stock amount. Accordingly, the first safety stock amount on the sales side covers the prediction error (blur) occurring during the first fixed cycle on the sales side, and the second safety stock amount on the production side is calculated as
The production amount on the production side can be predicted while covering the prediction error (blur) occurring during the second fixed cycle on the production side. As a result, the cycle (second fixed cycle) of the period required for the production side to procure the materials for manufacturing the product and actually ship the product is changed, and the order for the product is ordered on the sales side. The production side can make an accurate production plan based on the sales plan on the sales side even if the period is longer than the period (first fixed period) required until the product can be sold after the product is put into a state where it can be sold. it can. Particularly, in the present invention, the safety stock amount is determined not by relying on experience or the like as in the conventional case but by a mathematical algorithm according to equation (2) or equation (4), so that a more accurate production plan is established. And efficient inventory management without waste.

Therefore, according to the present invention, a production plan on the production side can be accurately and efficiently drafted by a mathematical algorithm, and more efficient and efficient product management can be performed.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a commodity distribution system to which the present invention has been applied.

FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a specific example of a production plan drafted on a production side in the commodity distribution system.

FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining a production plan drafted on the production side.

FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining sales prediction and actual data from each sales point given to the production side.

FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining the sales prediction and actual data when focusing on a certain sales point among the sales points.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating a process performed on the production side.

FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining a cycle for drafting a production plan on the production side and a cycle for drafting a sales plan on the sales side.

[Explanation of symbols]

100 Merchandise distribution system 110 Sales side 110 (1), 110 (2), ..., 110 (l)
Selling point 120 Network 130 Production side 131 Main center 131a Prediction function 131b Production planning function 132 Management section 133 Manufacturing section

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[Procedure amendment]

[Submission Date] January 11, 2000 (2000.1.1)
1)

[Procedure amendment 1]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] Claims

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

[Claims]

(Equation 1) The second prediction calculation means calculates the production amount on the production side by:

(Equation 2) The production management device according to claim 1, wherein the prediction is performed by an arithmetic operation.

(Equation 3) Performing the first safety stock amount prediction calculation by the calculation, and the second safety stock amount calculation step includes:

(Equation 4) 9. The production planning method according to claim 8, further comprising the step of executing the second calculation for predicting the amount of safety stock by the calculation.

[Procedure amendment 2]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0008

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

[0008]

For such a purpose,
According to a first aspect of the present invention, a sales side that sells a product according to a first fixed cycle required from ordering the product to receiving the product and selling the product, and predicting the sales amount of the product according to the first prediction cycle. The sales forecast data is used to predict the production amount of the product according to the second prediction cycle, and the second fixed period until the product can be manufactured and shipped for a period longer than the first fixed period. This is a production management device that performs management for producing goods on the production side by a computer according to a cycle, and is held on the sales side based on data sent from the terminal on the sales side via a network. First prediction calculating means for predicting a first safety stock amount of the commodity in consideration of a prediction error generated during the first fixed cycle with respect to the first prediction cycle, and held at the production side Second safety of goods The amount of storage is predicted in consideration of a prediction error generated in the period of the second fixed period with respect to the second prediction period, and based on the prediction result and the prediction result by the first prediction calculation means, A second prediction calculation means for determining a predicted production amount on the production side; a program for realizing the first prediction calculation means and the second prediction calculation means is stored in a memory of a computer; Executing the stored program.

[Procedure amendment 3]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0009

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

According to a second aspect of the present invention, a product is sold in accordance with a first fixed cycle required from the time an order is placed to the time the product is received and sold, and the sales volume of the product is predicted in accordance with the first prediction cycle. This is a production management device for performing computer-based management of product production by predicting the amount of product production based on data from the terminal on the selling side to be transmitted, and transmitted from the terminal on the selling side via a network. Receiving means for receiving the received data, based on sales prediction data from the terminal on the selling side received by the receiving means,
A first prediction for predicting a first safety stock amount of a product held by the selling side by performing a prediction calculation in consideration of a prediction error generated in a period of the first fixed cycle with respect to the first prediction cycle; The calculating means predicts the production amount of the product according to the second prediction cycle, and manufactures the product according to the second fixed cycle until the product can be manufactured and shipped for a period longer than the first fixed cycle. A second safety stock amount of a product held on the production side, which is calculated by performing a prediction calculation in consideration of a prediction error generated in a period of the second fixed cycle with respect to the second prediction cycle. Prediction calculation means, and a production amount determination means for determining the predicted production amount on the production side based on the prediction calculation result data in the first prediction calculation means and the second prediction calculation means, The first prediction calculation means, Serial second prediction computation unit, and stores a program for realizing the production determining means in the memory of the computer, and executes a program stored in the memory.

[Procedure amendment 4]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0010

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

In a third aspect based on the first or second aspect, the first prediction operation means or the second prediction operation means uses the standard deviation of variance in the probability distribution to generate the first prediction operation means. The present invention is characterized in that a prediction calculation of the safety stock amount and the second safety stock amount is performed.

[Procedure amendment 5]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0011

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

[0011] In a fourth aspect based on the first or second aspect, the first prediction calculation means calculates the delivery amount to the selling side.

[Procedure amendment 6]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0013

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

[0013] The second prediction calculation means calculates the production amount on the production side by

[Procedure amendment 7]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0015

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

It is characterized in that it is predicted by the following calculation.

[Procedure amendment 8]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0016

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

According to a fifth aspect based on the first aspect,
The computer further comprises a production amount determining means for determining a difference between the first safety stock amount and the second safety stock amount as a predicted production amount on the production side. The program is characterized by being stored in a memory and executing a program stored in the memory.

[Procedure amendment 9]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0017

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

In a sixth aspect based on the second aspect,
The first prediction calculation means predicts and calculates the first safety stock amount for each of the plurality of sellers, and the production amount determination means calculates a total sum of the prediction calculation results of the first prediction calculation means. And the second safety stock amount to determine the predicted production amount on the production side.

[Procedure amendment 10]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0018

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, a terminal device provided on the sales side is connected to the terminal device via a network,
A production management system having at least a host that transmits and receives data to and from the terminal device, wherein the host stores a program that implements each unit included in the production management device according to claim 1. And a computer that reads and executes the program from the computer.

[Procedure amendment 11]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0019

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, the sales forecast data on the sales side that predicts the sales volume of the product according to the first prediction cycle is used to predict the production quantity of the product according to the second prediction cycle. In a period longer than the first fixed cycle required from the ordering of the goods on the sales side to the arrival and sale of the goods, the production of the goods is performed according to the second fixed cycle until the goods can be manufactured and shipped. A production planning method in which a computer performs management for producing goods on a production side, wherein the first fixed cycle with respect to the first prediction cycle is based on data transmitted from a terminal on the sales side. A first safety stock amount calculating step of obtaining a first safety stock amount held by the selling side in consideration of a prediction error generated in the period of the above, and a safety stock amount calculation step occurring during the second fixed period with respect to the second prediction period. Forecast The second safety stock amount calculation step for obtaining the second safety stock amount held on the production side taking into account the error, the first safety stock amount calculation step and the second safety stock amount calculation step Based on the calculation result data, a program that implements a processing step including a production quantity determination step of determining the predicted production quantity on the production side is stored in a memory of a computer, and the program stored in the memory is stored in a computer. , And is executed.

[Procedure amendment 12]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0020

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

According to a ninth invention, in the above-mentioned eighth invention,
The first safety stock amount calculation step and the second safety stock amount calculation step use a standard deviation of variance in the probability distribution to calculate the first safety stock amount and the second safety stock amount. Is performed.

[Procedure amendment 13]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0021

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

In a tenth aspect based on the eighth aspect, the first safety stock amount calculating step comprises:

[Procedure amendment 14]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0023

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

The step of executing the first safety stock amount prediction calculation by the above calculation, the second safety stock amount calculation step includes:

[Procedure amendment 15]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0025

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

The present invention is characterized in that it includes a step of performing the above-mentioned second safety stock amount prediction calculation operation.

[Procedure amendment 16]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0026

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

In an eleventh aspect based on the eighth aspect, in the production quantity determination step, the difference between the first safety stock quantity and the second safety stock quantity is calculated by predicting the production quantity on the production side. Is characterized by including the step of determining as

[Procedure amendment 17]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0027

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

In a twelfth aspect based on the eighth aspect, the first safety stock amount calculating step includes a step of executing the first safety stock amount prediction calculation for each of the plurality of sellers. The production amount determination step includes a step of obtaining a predicted production amount on the production side from the total sum of the prediction operation result data in the first safety stock amount operation step and the second safety stock amount. It is characterized by including.

[Procedure amendment 18]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0028

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

A thirteenth invention is a storage medium storing a program for executing the processing steps of the production planning method according to any one of claims 8 to 12.

[Procedure amendment 19]

[Document name to be amended] Statement

[Correction target item name] 0067

[Correction method] Change

[Correction contents]

[0067]

As described above, according to the present invention, a computer (host computer) that transmits and receives data to and from a terminal device on the sales side via a network (computer network) executes a program stored in a memory of the computer. By reading and executing, the first safety stock amount to be held by the sales side (a store, a wholesale store, or the like) becomes a first fixed cycle (a state where the product can be actually sold after ordering the product). ), And a second safety stock amount to be held on the production side (such as a factory that manufactures a product) is added to the second fixed cycle ( Procurement of materials to produce the product, procurement of the product, commencement of production, and forecasting taking into account the prediction error that occurs during the period of time required for the product to be ready for delivery, etc.) From the prediction results of al, determining a predicted production of the production side. In addition, when there are a plurality of sales sides, the first safety stock amount of each sales side is predicted,
Estimate the total second safety stock on the production side (the amount of stock that can be handled by all sales sides), and calculate the first safety stock amount on each sales side and the second safety stock amount on the production side. From the safety stock amount, the total predicted production amount on the production side is determined.

Continuation of the front page F term (reference) 3C042 RJ05 RJ10 5B049 BB07 BB11 CC21 CC27 DD05 EE03 EE12 FF09 9A001 BB02 BB03 GG01 GG16 JJ44 JJ46 KK54

Claims (13)

[Claims] 1. A method for predicting the sales volume of a product according to a first prediction cycle, a sales side that sells a product according to a first fixed cycle, and a second prediction using prediction information on the sales side. A production management apparatus for the production side of a system including a production side for predicting a production amount of the commodity according to a cycle and producing the commodity according to a second fixed cycle larger than the first fixed cycle; The first safety stock amount of the goods held by the sales side is predicted in consideration of the prediction error generated during the first fixed period, and the second safety stock amount of the goods held by the production side is calculated. A production management apparatus comprising: a prediction unit that performs prediction in consideration of a prediction error generated in a period of the second fixed cycle and determines a predicted production amount on the production side based on the prediction result. 2. The production management apparatus according to claim 1, wherein said prediction means predicts said first safety stock amount and said second safety stock amount by a predetermined calculation. 3. The production management apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the predetermined calculation includes a calculation using a standard deviation of a variance in the probability distribution. 4. The predicting means calculates a delivery amount to the selling side by: And the production volume on the production side is calculated as follows: 2. The production management apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the prediction is performed by an arithmetic operation. 5. The production method according to claim 1, wherein the prediction means determines a difference between the first safety stock amount and the second safety stock amount as a predicted production amount on the production side. Production control equipment. 6. The predicting means predicts the first safety stock amount for each of the plurality of selling sides, and calculates the production side based on the sum of the prediction results and the first safety stock amount. 2. The production management device according to claim 1, wherein the predicted production amount is determined. 7. A method for predicting the sales amount of a product according to a first prediction cycle, a sales side that sells a product according to a first fixed cycle, and a second prediction using prediction information on the sales side. A production management system comprising: a production side that predicts a production amount of a commodity according to a cycle and produces a commodity according to a second fixed cycle that is larger than the first fixed cycle. 7. A production management system having the function of the production management device according to any one of 1 to 6. 8. Using the prediction information on the sales side for predicting the sales volume of the product according to the first prediction cycle, predicting the production amount of the product according to the second prediction cycle, A production planning method on the production side for producing goods according to a second fixed cycle larger than the first fixed cycle for selling, wherein a predetermined method using the first prediction cycle and the first fixed cycle is used. Calculating a first safety stock amount calculating a first safety stock amount held by the selling side in consideration of a prediction error generated during the first fixed cycle period; and the second prediction cycle. And a second calculation for obtaining a second safety stock amount held on the production side in consideration of a prediction error generated during the second fixed cycle by a predetermined calculation using the second fixed cycle. The quantity calculation step; A production planning method characterized by comprising: a determination step of determining a predicted production amount on the production side from each calculation result in the storage amount calculation step and the second safety stock amount calculation step. 9. The production planning method according to claim 8, wherein the predetermined calculation includes a calculation using a standard deviation of a variance in the probability distribution. 10. The first safety stock amount calculation step is as follows: Is performed as the predetermined calculation. The second safety stock amount calculation step is as follows: 9. The production planning method according to claim 8, wherein the following calculation is performed as the predetermined calculation. 11. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining step includes a step of determining a difference between the first safety stock amount and the second safety stock amount as a predicted production amount on the production side. 8. The production planning method according to item 8. 12. The first safety stock amount calculating step includes a step of calculating the first safety stock amount for each of the plurality of sellers, and the second safety stock amount calculating step includes: 9. The production planning method according to claim 8, further comprising the step of obtaining the second safety stock amount on the whole production side by using the sum total of the forecast information on the sales side. 13. A storage medium, wherein the processing steps of the production planning method according to claim 8 are stored so as to be readable by a computer.