GB2373979A

GB2373979A - Modelling effects of influences on system components and spatially displaying the results

Info

Publication number: GB2373979A
Application number: GB0202616A
Authority: GB
Inventors: Colin Edward Riley; Trevor Parrott
Original assignee: Lattice Intellectual Property Ltd
Current assignee: Lattice Intellectual Property Ltd
Priority date: 2001-02-06
Filing date: 2002-02-05
Publication date: 2002-10-02
Anticipated expiration: 2022-02-05
Also published as: GB0102920D0; GB0202616D0; GB2373979B; WO2002063505A1

Abstract

Assistance in decision making is provided by modelling the impact of influences on components within a system and spatially displaying the results in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the system components. The modelling and spatial display may be applied to maintenance prediction in a pipeline network. Modelling is used to establish a parameter, such as expected lifetime of a pipe. Rather than displaying the results in a table of values, a map is displayed showing which parts (<B>006, 008</B>) of the network require maintenance or replacement urgently. This assists decision making by clearly showing that other parts (<B>007</B>), requiring work but less urgently, may be maintained or replaced simultaneously to maximise efficiency and/or reduce disruption.

Description

Decision Support Tool The present invention relates to assisting decision

making, particularly by modelling the effect of influences on components within a system, for example to predict maintenance required for a pipeline network.

Background of the Invention

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) or Graphic Interface Systems that spatially display historical information are well known. These systems are known to support entering descriptive or historical information about objects into a database and displaying that information spatially. For example, using a conventional GIS system, an operator could enter information into a database indicating that a water main had broken. Using this new data in the database, the GIS would indicate that the water main was broken by, for example, changing the colour of that water main on the spatial display.

System dynamics packages are also known which allow an analyst to forecast or predict an impact of a system dynamic on an asset. For example, "ithink" and "powersim" can perform forecasting and predict results for a particular system and output those results as tabular data that can be further analysed.

Summary of the Invention

The inventors of the present invention recognised that currently no systems or methods exist that support proactive analyses based on system dynamics, where the results of such analyses are presented spatially. The present inventors recognised that by providing the results of modelling a system dynamic of an asset to a GIS, an analyst can look forward by predicting the future behaviour of the assets based on a spatial display of the predictive results. This forward-looking capability in the context of a spatial display would be helpful in planning, for example, spending profiles for maintaining the assets. Moreover, the present inventors have recognised that by displaying the results spatially, that a more insightful analysis can be performed. Accordingly, one object of the present invention is to provide a solution to this problem, as well as other problems and deficiencies with conventional system dynamics packages.

According to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided a computer-

implemented decision support tool, comprising: a database populated with asset entries, each entry corresponding to one of a plurality of assets and including: an asset identification indicator; and at least one asset attribute; a processor; and

a computer readable medium encoded with processor readable instructions that when executed by the processor implement: a system dynamic modelling mechanism configured to model a system dynamic and determine an impact of the system dynamic on at least one of the plurality of assets and to store an output in a memory, the output corresponding to the impact; and a spatial display mechanism configured to query the database and spatially display information related to the plurality of assets based on the at least one asset attribute, and access the memory and spatially display the impact of the system dynamic on the at least one of the plurality of assets based on the output.

The spatial display of the results provides an easily understood forecast of influences on the system. For example, when the effect of varying degrees of influences such as replacement, maintenance, growth, etc. on a pipeline network are displayed spatially then the effect of various influences on one particular pipe in the network can easily be seen as that pipe can be easily identified in the display.

The effect of the various influences on each component or pipe may be represented by each component or pipe being displayed differently, e.g. different colouring or shading depending upon the predicted longevity of the pipe resulting from the various influences having acted on it.

According to a second aspect of the present invention there is provided a method for rnodelling the effects of one or more influences on components within a system, and displaying the results of the modelling spatially in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the components within the system being modelled.

The method may be provided as a computer program. The method may be provided on a memory storage device or transmitted as an electromagnetic wave over the internet for example.

According to a further aspect of the present invention, there is provided a decision support tool for modelling the effects of influences on components within a system, the decision support tool being arranged to display the results of its modelling spatially in a manner corresponding to a spatial arrangement of the components within the system being modelled.

According to a still further aspect of the present invention there is provided a system dynamics package linked to a graphics interface system to provide a new asset management tool.

An example of the present invention will now be described with reference to the accompanying drawings in which:

! Figure 1 schematically shows a system incorporating the present invention; Figure 1A is a flow chart illustrating the nature of the analysis enabled by the present invention; Figure 2 shows the system architecture of an example of the invention; Figure 3 shows the results of a first pipeline network to be analysed by the invention; Figure 4 shows a second pipeline network to be analysed by the invention; Figure S shows the spatially displayed results of an analysis by an example of the invention on the network shown in Figure 4; Figure SA schematically shows a key for analysing the results shown in Figure S.; and Figure 6 shows a computer system through which the invention could be implemented. Figure 1 shows a system dynamics package 10 connected to a graphics interface system 20. Examples of suitable system dynamics packages include ithink or powersim. The system dynamics package 10 is arranged to receive data regarding the system to be modelled, generally as a database. In this example, the system to be modelled is a pipeline network. The system dynamics package 10 also receives information regarding the effects of various influences or constraints on the system to be modelled. These influences or constraints could be technical or business constraints or a combination of the two such as potential structural risk to particular pipes, rate of leakage from particular pipes, potential of growth of particular parts of

the pipeline network, and current and potential pressure levels under which the particular pipes could operate.

The system dynamics package 10 may then determine one or more relationships relating to the behaviour of discrete elements within the asset database, e.g. 1. pressure x material type x pipe age x soil type = "mains breaks" Pressure, material type and pipe age are influenced by pipe replacement and anticipated growth of the pipeline network. Pipe replacement is itself influenced by policy changes and growth is influenced by both micro and macro economic factors.

Hence, assuming a desired spend profile was required for a particular pipeline network, questions such as "how much pipe would need to be replaced to keep mains breaks under a certain threshold?" could be answered. Examples of other questions that could be answered using the system dynamics package 10 connected to the graphics interface system 20 include: 1. Which pipes would be replaced? 2. If replacement policy changed, which pipes would not be replaced? 3. If growth increased and pressure increased to meet growth, which additional pipes would need to be replaced to still meet targets? 4. What would the pipeline network profile look like spatially under a given policy after x years?

The data regarding the system to be modelled and the information regarding the effects of various influences or constraints on the system can be entered directly into the system dynamics package 10 for example from a database or via a graphics interface system 20 such as smallworld.

The results of analyses by the system dynamics package 10 are passed to the graphics interface system 20 which displays them spatially in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the components within the system being modelled. In the present example of a pipeline network, the graphics interface system will display a network of elements, each element corresponding to a particular pipe or section of pipe, and with the elements arranged spatially in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the pipes or pipe sections of the pipeline network being modelled. The parameter being modelled by the system dynamics package, in this case the need for replacement of a particular section of pipe, is displayed by appropriate selection of colour of the element. For example, black corresponds to no replacement required, yellow requires replacement soon and red requires replacement urgently. This spatial viewing of anticipated replacement provides a powerful asset management tool that may result in different investment decisions being taken from those that would have previously been taken.

The nature of the analysis enabled by the invention is illustrated in the flow chart of Figure 1A. The flow chart illustrates the modelling of a system dynamic on at least one of a plurality of assets, each asset having an entry in a populated database with each entry including an asset identification indicator and at least one attribute. The function of each step of the flow chart is explained below: 1. determine an impact of the system dynamic on at least one of the plurality of assets; 2. store in a memory an output corresponding to the impact of the system dynamic on the at least one of a plurality of assets; 3. query the database and spatially display information related to the plurality of assets based on the at least one attribute; and 4. access the memory and display on the spatial display the impact of the system dynamic on the at least one of the plurality of assets based on the output.

A more detailed description of the system dynamics package and the graphics

interface system and their use in an example is given below with reference to Figure 2. In this example, data regarding the pipeline network that has been modelled and the effects of various influences on that pipeline network are stored in database 90. The potential influences may include, for example, potential structural risk to particular

pipes, rate of leakage from particular pipes, potential of growth of particular parts of the pipeline network and current and potential pressure levels under which particular pipes could operate.

In this example, data is passed from database 90 to system dynamics package 100 via graphics interface system 200 which arranges the data spatially. A user is able to provide various inputs to the system dynamics package 100 such as various expenditure levels or lengths of pipe to be replaced in a given period. The system dynamics package 100 determines the confidence levels or suggested priority for particular pipes within the network to be replaced based on the available expenditure or length of pipe able to be replaced.

The results from system dynamics package 100 are passed back to graphics interface system 200 to be displayed spatially. The results are passed back to graphics interface system 200 as an output table possibly via a spreadsheet package.

A numerical example is given below: The graphics interface package 200, in this case smallworld' has the following data received from the database 90:

Asset No: Length (km) Risk 001 2 1

002 3 3

003 1 1

004 2 6

005 2 8

006 3 5

007 1 9

008 2 7

009 5 4

010 2 2

Total 23 Assets are particular pipe lengths with an associated risk factor from 1 to 9 with 9 being at most risk. The above data is transferred to the system dynamics package 100 where it is arranged in an aggregated table: Risk Length (km) A(1-3) 8

B (4 - 6) 10

C(7-9) 5

If a workload of 7km was set into the system dynamics package 100 replacing the most at risk pipes first, the new table would look like this: Risk Length (km) A(1-3) 8

B(4-6) 8

C(7-9) 0

Thus all assets in risk band C would be displayed as having a 100% confidence of being replaced, those in risk band A would be displayed as having zero confidence of being replaced and those in risk band B would be displayed with a 20% confidence of being replaced since 2km from a total of lOkm would be replaced. These results are displayed by the graphics interface system 200 as shown in Figure 3 with the modelled results arranged in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the components, in this case pipes, of the system being modelled. As can be seen from Figure 3, pipe lengths numbered 006 and 008 are indicated as having 100% confidence of being replaced. As the modelled results are displayed spatially in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the components within the pipeline system being modelled, it is clear that since pipe lengths numbered 006 and 008 are definitely being replaced, pipe length number 007 with a 20% confidence of

being replaced should also be replaced at the same time as pipe lengths numbered 006 and 008 to avoid disruption by replacing this pipe separately. If the results were not displayed spatially in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the pipe system being modelled, then the convenience of replacing pipe length numbered 007 at the same time as pipe lengths numbered 006 and 008 may have been missed.

Figure 4 shows another gas distribution network for a particular area as would be displayed by the graphics interface package 200. This is then analysed by the system dynamics package 100 as described above with various inputs entered by a user such as length of pipeline able to be replaced over a given period, say 10 years, and the results sent back to the graphics interface package 200 for display.

Figure 5 shows the results displayed on the graphics interface package 200 with various colours (not shown) on particular pipes indicating the recommendation for replacement of that particular pipeline as defined by an associated key shown schematically in Figure 5A.

This spatial viewing of anticipated replacement provides a powerful asset management tool that may result in different investment decisions taken to those that would have previously been taken. One example of this can be easily seen by looking at the circled section A of pipe in Figure 5 which would be displayed in a different

colour, e.g. red, from the connecting pipes on either side to indicate a different status.

This circled section of pipe would not have been selected for replacement without the spatial view of anticipated replacement over the ten year period. However, given the sections of pipe that would be nominated for definite replacement by the decision support tool either side (e.g. in black), it would be prudent to avoid traffic disruption and replace the entire section.

It is this combination of System Dynamics and spatial technology that is considered to provide a novel asset management tool/methodology.

The steps of the methods of the present invention may be performed through a logic circuit or other circuit including but not limited to an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a programmable array of logic (PAL), a field programmable gate array

of logic (FGGA), a one time programmable gate array of logic (OTPGA), or a generic array of logic (GAL). The inputs, outputs, and states of the methods may be maintained in one or more hardware devices such as a flipflop, a buffers, or other devices. Figure 6 illustrates a computer system 601 upon which an embodiment of the present invention may be implemented. The computer system 601 includes a bus 602 or other communication mechanism for communicating information, and a processor 603

coupled with the bus 602 for processing the information. The computer system 601 also includes a main memory 604, such as a random access memory (RAM) or other dynamic storage device (e.g. dynamic RAM (DRAM), static RAM (SRAM), and synchronous DRAM (SDRAM)), coupled to the bus 602 for storing information and instructions to be executed by processor 603. In addition, the main memory 604 may be used for storing temporary variables or other intermediate information during the execution of instructions by the processor 603. The computer system 601 further includes a read only memory (ROM) 605 or other static storage device (e.g. programmable ROM (PROM), erasable PROM (EPROM), and electrically erasable PROM (EEPROM) coupled to the bus 602 for storing static information and instructions for the processor 603.

The computer system 601 also includes a disk controller 606 coupled to the bus 602 to control one or more storage devices for storing information and instructions, such as a magnetic hard disk 607, and a removable media drive 608 (e.g. floppy disk drive, read-only compact disc drive, readlwrite compact disc drive, compact disc jukebox, tape drive, and removable magneto-optical drive). The storage devices may be added to the computer system 601 using an appropriate device interface (e.g. small computer system interface (SCSI), integrated device electronics (IDE), enhanced-IDE (E-IDE), direct memory access (DMA), or ultra-DMA).

The computer system 601 may also include special purpose logic devices (e. g. application specific integrated circuits (ASICs) or configurable logic devices (e.g. simple programmable logic devices (SPLDs), complex programmable logic devices (CPLDs), and field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs)).

The computer system 601 may also include a display controller 609 coupled to the bus 602 to control a display 610, such as a cathode ray tube (CRT), for displaying information to a computer user. The computer system includes input devices, such as a keyboard 611 and a pointing device 612, for interacting with a computer user and providing information to the processor 603. The pointing device 612, for example, may be a mouse, trackball, or a pointing stick for communicating direction information and command selections to the processor 603 and for controlling cursor movement on the display 610. In addition, a printer may provide printed listings or displays of data stored andlor generated by the computer system 601.

The computer system 601 performs a portion or all of the processing steps of the invention in response to the processor 603 executing one or more sequences of one or more instructions contained in a memory, such as a main memory 604. Such instructions may be read into the main memory 604 from another computer readable medium, such as a hard disk 607 or a removable media drive 608. One or more processors in a multi-processing arrangement may also be employed to execute the

sequences of instructions contained in main memory 604. In alternative embodiments, hard-wired circuitry may be used in place of or in combination with software instructions. Thus, embodiments are not limited to any specific combination of hardware circuitry and software.

As stated above, the computer system 601 includes at least one computer readable medium or memory for holding instructions programmed according to the teachings of the invention and for containing data structures, tables, records, or other data described herein. Examples of computer readable media are compact discs, hard discs, floppy disks, tape, magneto- optical disks, PROMs (EPROM, EEPROM, flash EPROM), DRAM, SRAM, SDRAM, or any other magnetic medium, compact discs (e.g CD-ROM), or any other optical medium, punch cards, paper tape, or other physical medium with patterns of holes, a carrier wave (described below), or any other medium from which a computer can read.

Stored on any one or on a combination of computer readable media, the present invention includes software for controlling the computer system 601, for driving a device or devices for implementing the invention, and for enabling the computer system 601 to interact with a human user (e.g. print production personnel). Such software may include, but is not limited to, device drivers, operating systems, development tools, and applications software. Such computer readable media further

includes the computer program product of the present invention for performing all or a portion (if processing is distributed) of the processing performed in implementing the invention.

The computer code devices of the present invention may be any interpretable or executable code mechanism, including but not limited to scripts, interpretable programs, dynamic link libraries (DLLs), Java classes, and complete executable programs. Moreover, parts of the processing of the present invention may be distributed for better performance, reliability, and/or cost.

The term "computer readable medium" as used herein refers to any medium that participates in providing instructions to the processor 603 for execution. A computer readable medium may take many forms, including but not limited to, non-volatile media, volatile media, and transmission media. Non-volatile media includes, for example, optical, magnetic disks, and magneto-optical disks, such as the hard disk 607 or the removable media drive 608. Volatile media includes dynamic memory, such as the main memory 604. Transmission media includes coaxial cables, copper wire and fore optics, including the wires that make up the bus 602. Transmission media may also take the form of acoustic or light waves, such as those generated during radio wave and infrared data communications.

Various forms of computer readable media may be involved in carrying out one or more sequences of one or more instructions to processor 603 for execution. For example, the instructions may initially be carried on a magnetic disk of a remote computer. The remote computer can load the instructions for implementing all or a portion of the present invention remotely into a dynamic memory and send the instructions over a telephone line using a modem. modem local to the computer system 601 may receive the data on the telephone line and use an infrared transmitter to convert the data to an infrared signal. An infrared detector coupled to the bus 602 can receive the data carried in the infrared signal and place the data on the bus 602.

The bus 602 carries the data to the main memory 604, from which the processor 603 retrieves and executes the instructions. The instructions received by the main memory 604 may optionally be stored on storage device 607 or 608 either before or after execution by processor 603.

The computer system 601 also includes a communication interface 613 coupled to the bus 602. The communication interface 613 provides a twoway data communication coupling to a network link 614 that is connected to, for example, a local area network (LAN) 61S, or to another communications network 616 such as the Internet. For example, the communication interface 613 may be a network interface card to attach to any packet switched LAN. As another example, the communication interface 613 may be an asymmetrical digital subscriber line (ADSL) card, an integrated services

digital network (ISDN) card or a modem to provide a data communication connection to a corresponding type of communications line. Wireless links may also be implemented. In any such implementation, the communication interface 613 sends and receives electrical, electromagnetic or optical signals that carry digital data streams representing various types of information.

The network link 614 typically provides data communication through one or more networks to other data devices. For example, the network link 614 may provide a connection to another computer through a local network 615 (e.g. a LAN) or through equipment operated by a service provider, which provides communication services through a communications network 616. The local network 614 and the communications network 616, use, for example, electrical, electromagnetic, or optical signals that carry digital data streams. The signals through the various networks and the signal on the network link 614 and through the communication interface 613, which carry the digital data to and from the computer system 601, are exemplary forms of carrier waves transporting the information. The computer system 601 can transmit and receive data, including program code, through the network(s) 615 and 616, the network link 614 and the communication interface 613. Moreover, the network link 614 may provide a connection through a LAN 615 to a mobile device 61-7 such as a personal digital assistant (PDA) laptop computer, or cellular telephone.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented decision support tool, comprising: a database populated with asset entries, each entry corresponding to one of a plurality of assets and including: an asset identification indicator; and at least one asset attribute; a processor; and a computer readable medium encoded with processor readable instructions that when executed by a processor implement: a system dynamic modelling mechanism configured to model a system dynamic and determine an impact of the system dynamic on at least one of the plurality of assets and to store an output in a memory, the output corresponding to the impact; and a spatial display mechanism configured to query the database and spatially display information related to the plurality of assets based on the at least one asset attribute, and access the memory and spatially display the impact of the system dynamic on the at least one of the plurality of assets based on the output.

2. A computer-implemented decision support tool according to Claim 1, wherein

the impact of the system dynamic on the at least one of the plurality of assets is displayed by providing a visual indication corresponding to the impact.

3. A computer-implemented decision support tool according to claim 27 wherein the visual indication is a colour.

4. A computer-implemented decision support tool according to claim 2, wherein the visual indication is a shade.

5. A decision support tool for modelling the effects of influences or constraints on components within a system, the decision support tool being arranged to display the results of its modelling spatially in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the components within the system being modelled.

6. A decision support tool according to claim 5, the decision support tool being arranged to determine one or more relationships relating to the behaviour of components within the system affected by the one or more influences or constraints.

7. A decision support tool according to claim 6, the decision support tool being arranged to receive an input from a user relating to an influence, constraint or possible operation that could be performed on the components within the system being modelled and the decision support tool being arranged to display the effect of this influence, constraint or possible operation on the spatially arranged display.

8. A decision support tool according to any of claims 5 to 7, wherein the results of an influence, constraint or possible operation on the components within the system to be modelled are indicated by each component displaying a visual indication corresponding to the modelled result for that component.

9. A decision support tool according to claim 8, wherein the visual indication displayed by each component of the system is a colour corresponding to the modelled result for that component.

10. A decision support tool according to claim 8, wherein the visual indication displayed by each component of the system is a type of shading corresponding to the modelled result for that component.

11. A decision support tool according to any of claims 8 to 10, wherein a key is displayed indicating the meaning of the visual indication displayed by each component.

12. A decision support tool according to any of the preceding claims, arranged to model the effects of influences on pipes in a pipeline network.

13. A decision support tool according to any of the preceding claims comprising a system dynamics package to perform the modelling linked to a graphics interface system to display the modelling results spatially.

14. A method of modelling a system dynamic on at least one of a plurality of assets, each asset having an entry in a populated database with each entry including an asset identification indicator and at least one attribute, the method comprising: determining an impact of a system dynamic on at least one of a plurality of assets; storing in a memory an output corresponding to the impact of the system dynamic on the at least one of a plurality of assets; querying the database and spatially displaying information related to the plurality of assets based on the at least one attribute; and accessing the memory and spatially displaying the impact of the system dynamic on the at least one of the plurality of assets based on the output.

15. A method according to claim 14, wherein the impact of the system dynamic on the at least one of the plurality of assets is displayed by providing a visual indication corresponding to the impact.

16. A method according to claim 15, wherein the visual indication is a colour.

17. A method according to claim 15, wherein the visual indication is a shade.

18. A method for modelling the effects of one or more influences or constraints on components within a system and displaying the results of the modelling spatially in a manner corresponding to the spatial arrangement of the components within the system being modelled.

19. A method according to claim 18, wherein the modelling involves determining one or more relationships relating to the behaviour of components within the system affected by the one or more influences or constraints.

20. A method according to claim 19, wherein a user inputs information regarding the one or more influences or constraints or a possible operation that could be performed on the components within the system being modelled and the effect of this influence, constraint or possible operation is displayed spatially.

21. A method according to any of claims 18 to 20, wherein a visual indication is displayed relating to each component of the system being modelled, the visual indication corresponding to the modelled result for that component.

at.

22. A method according to claim 21, wherein the visual indication is a colour.

23 A method according to claim 21, wherein the visual indication is a shade.

24. A method according to claim 18, used to model the effects of influences on pipes in a pipeline network.

25. A method according to claim 18 performed using a system dynamics package linked to a graphics interface package.

26. A computer program arranged to perform the method of claim 14 or claim 18.

27. A memory storage device which when provided on a suitable processing means is arranged to perform the method of claim 14 or claim 18.

28. An electromagnetic wave which when received and its inforTnation deciphered and provided on a suitable processing means performs the method of claim 14 or claim 18.

29. A computer program product which when provided to a suitable processing means is arranged to perform the method of claim 14 or claim 18.