GB2183038A - Process for the prediction and detection of earthquakes - Google Patents

Abstract

Seismological measurements are carried out at test sites and simultaneously the physical and/or geophysical and/or geochemical and/or geodetic, as well as biological and microbiological parameters are measured, at three levels, namely underground, at and above ground level. Additionally, the changes of these parameters in space and with time are also measured, the measured values are transmitted, recorded and evaluated so as to determine their amplitude, time- dependence, periodicity and frequency spectrum and the course and rate of the changes. Also, the measured and determined values are compared in space and time to themselves and/or to the value of one or more of the other parameter(s), the relative intensity and sequentiality or time-series of the individual parameters or groups of such parameters as well as their increments are determined; and, taking due account of the geological and rheological features of the site, the sequentiality or time-series is/are extrapolated and the danger of earthquake is signalled in all cases in which as a result of the extrapolation in respect of at least two independent parameters a critical value is obtained, the critical value having been previously determined empirically. <IMAGE>

Description

SPECIFICATION Process for the prediction and detection of seismicity The invention relates to a process for the prediction resp. observation of natural and/or artificially induced seismicity /falling in of mines /-so e.g. occuring as a consequence of exploitation of mines, building of water basins closed with a high dam -, as well as to the preventive protection of high-valuable and/or especially dangerous establishments, so e.g.

power plants, mines, chemical plants.

Up to now prediction of seismicity has been restricted primarily to the observation of the seismologic effect itself, accordingly, resulting from the character of measurements prognosis /forecast/ could be yielded only in the developed phase of the oscillating - shaking effects, futheron, concluded from some locally measured values of quaking it could be predicted, in which geographical direction and to what a strength further layer-movements can be expected.

Recently, in addition to surfacial measurements underground - or in the vicinity of the surface - seismic resp. seismologic measurements used to be performed, as well as some accessory parameters of the quakes have been also measured, so e.g. changes in pressure and thermic values.

In course of surfacial measurements additionally incline-meters were used, for detecting displacements strain- measurements with laser were performed.

However, based on the unfortunate experiences having been gained in course of recent years it can be stated that the processed enumerated resp. application of said instruments brought but a slight result, when applied separately.

Up to now no complex measuring process stayed at disposal, by the aid of which, by measuring and processing as well as evaluating the properly chosen circle of physical, geophysical, geochemical, geodetic and biological parameters, resp. the absolute resp. relative values thereof, as well as of the timely series of changes, the aim set for the invention, i.e.

prediction of natural and/or artificially induced seismicity could have been obtained, simultaneously, based on said forecast adequate measures could have been made with the required safety.

The net of seismicity signalling observatories can be considered as a generally spread solution, characterising technical level, however, as already mentioned, the measuring data of said observatories result nearly exclusively from seismologic measurements and geodetic measuring processes.

The following publications served as a basis for our statements: - P. Rikitake: Earthquake prediction, p. 357, Elsevier, 1976; - Earthquake prediction Proceedings of the international symposium on earthquake prediction Terra Scientific Publishing Company, p. 995 /TERRAPUB/ Tokyo, UNESCO, Paris, 1984.

Said publications report upon measuring methods of experimental character widespread aiming the prediction of seismicity.

The invention is based on the recognition, in so far as the aim set for the invention can be achieved, if not only quaking effect, but resilient layer deformation preceeding timely said effect is detected and analysed. The single locally and timely isolated processes of earthquakes can be led back to processes occuring under the shell defined by the deep-structure and crustal structure as well.

Based on said recognition, the essential feature of the invention lies in that observations and measurements are carried out on the area tested on two preferably three fundamental levels, namely below the earth surface, on and above the earth surface simultaneously and continuously, that means with a frequency of sampling resulting from the character of the measurements. In course of this activity we are observing and measuring the complexity of physical and/or geophysical and/or geochemical and/or geodetic, as well as biological and microbiological parameters, and at least one of the parameters is observed below the earth surface. Furtheron, change of the parameters are measured both in space and time, simultaneously with measuring the measured values are teleindicated, registered and stored, processed and evaluated.

From the measuring data having been obtained in course of processing we determine the time function and/or periodicity and/or frequency spectrum of the single parameter values. Additionally, we determine the relation of said values to the same parameter and/or to one or more other parameter values.

After having fixed the time-series of the single parameter values, parameter groups, of their increments and relative intensities, taking the concrete geological and rock-physical potentialities of the area taking into consideration, an extrapolation function evaluation is carried out and danger of earthquake will be signalized in all cases, in which, in respect to at least two independent parameters a critical value - having been previously determined empirically - is obtained as a result of extrapolation.

In course of the process according to the invention, above the earth surface the measuring data of known telemonitoring systems, e.g. delivered by stereo aerial photos or artificial satellites and used for meteorologic purpose in a wide circle, are processed, so in particular timely change of the infrared-image of the area and/or natural gamma- radiation, natural radio-active radiation, resp. spectral values thereof and observed gravimetric changes.

In course of surfacial measurings we rely fundamentally on the seismological signals recorded by observatories, while these data used to be completed with further physical, geophysical, geodetic and geochemical measurements performed in the rayon tested. Accordingly, we are simultaneously and continuously measuring and registering surfacial geomagnetic values (e.g. magnetotelluric and protonprecession measurements are carried out), geoelectric values (so e.g. values of resistance, current values), geodetic values (so e.g.

by measuring rock strains measuring strains with laser, by evaluating horizontal and vertical displacement, inclinometering), gravimetric measurings are performed, furtheron, by means of a small apperture array the coordinates of the events are determined, velocity of eventual earthquake waves and frequency of micro-oscillations are measured. Surfacial measurements are expediently completed with biological observations.

These measuring processes are well known in itselves, measuring devices on the proper technical level are also staying at disposal, novetly of the invention lies in the simultaneous use thereof in order to realize the aim of the invention, in simultaneous measuring and complex processi g of the results.

Surfacial geoelectric and geomagnetic measuring results - when related to the corresponding seismological and borehole geophysecal data - yield most valuable information for determining qualitative and quantitative values of elastic deformations arising in the single layer aggregates and geostructural units.

Underground measurings are performed expediently in deep-boreholes, so e.g. boreholes for the research of hydrocarbons, water, solid minerals. resp. bores for the structural research, - furtheron boreholes -, however, measuring places in the mines are also well suitable for this purpose.

Circle of underground measuring includes measuring physical, chemical, geophysical and microbiological parameters of the borehole/s/, the so-called bore-liquid contained therein, the layer aggregates confining the borehole/s/ and of the layer liquids resp. gases filling their pore volume, as well as measuring spatial and timely changes of said parameters.

Without aiming at completeness, measurings cover expediently the following: - seismic measuring in borehole /s/, - measuring the inclination of borehole /s/, - measuring temperature of the borehole - measuring electrochemical potential, pressure, gas saturation and optical permeability of the liquid contained in the borehole, - measuring the so-called "natural poten tial", differential electric potential of the rocks confining the borehole /s/ resp. layer aggregates, - measuring natural radioactivity of the rock, resp. layer aggregates, - measuring the magnetic parameters of the rock-, resp. layer aggregates, - measuring changes in rock-, resp. pore volume, as well as electric resistance, - measuring the velocity of water streaming in the soil and rocks, - identifying the mycobacteria streptomyces and/or mycobacteria methanomonas utilizing the hydrocarbon gas, to be found in the borehole liquid or having been introduced thereto, resp. analysis of their development and quantification.

A part of these measuring methods, so measuring thermic and pressure value changes have been well known, in so far as, they are well suitable - as accessory parameters - for the observation of seismicity, however, a fundamentally new characteristic of the precess according to the invention lies in, that the complete circle of deep-drill /carotage/ geophysical measurings is used as an information basis for the prediction of seismicity. This results from the recognition according to the invention, that from these measuring data one may conclude to the elastic deformations arising in the crustal structures, the extent and direction thereof, and at last, to the place of the earthquake to be expected, the extent and direction thereof.

In course of the process according to the invention measurings having been carried out underground /in deep boreholes/ are realized opposite to properly chosen - e.g. adequately porous or compact - layer aggregates.

Underground measuring places are located in the area tested /e.g. in the rayon of an object intended to be protected/in deep boreholes arranged in properly formed geodynamic polygons, while the measured values thus obtained are related to each other, to the measuring data of a measuring place chosen as reference/ e.g. an observatory on the surface/, resp. within one deep-borehole to values having been measured in different depths.

In course of the process according to the invention it is considered as advantageous, if the parameter values having been measured in a given deep borehole are related to the values having been obtained at the bottom of the deep borehole. Furtheron, it is considered as advantageous, if underground measurings are carried out in a plurality, expediently four deep boreholes surrounding the object intended to be protected, while the values measured therein resp. the changes thereof are interrelated.

In course of underground measurings it is recommended to measure simultaneously the following parameter groups out of the possible measurings, as previously outlined: a) temperature and pressure of the liquid, gas saturation, translucence, b) natural and excited potential, resistance, natural radioactivity, magnetic parameter groups, c) Totality of the aforementioned borehole physical and layer - physical, as well as microbiological parameters, d) one of the parameter groups a, b, c, completed with surfacial geodetic and seismological measurings.

Underground measurings are performed - in compliance with usual practice directed to measuring in deep boreholes - using metering detectors formed as borehole instruments, having been connected with a multicore cable to the measuring devices arranged above the soil, to the supply units and the display units.

When designing these borehole instruments, arising temperature and pressure conditions are also to be considered. In course of the process the instruments connected with the surface by means of the cable can be arranged in optimal depth levels.

For realizing the process according to the invention a modern measuring system was developed containing automatic measuring devices for carrying out underground, surfacial measurements and those above the surface.

The measuring system has a computer-aided centre, which is processing the measuring data having been collected from the automatic metering devices by remote-observation, after having processed and evaluated the data, alarm is ordered on basis of the computerized decision, resp. necessary precautionary measures are taken.

With the up-to-date measuring system having been developed for realizing the process according to the invention enables automatic observation of the processes preceding the seismicity, teleindication simultaneously with measuring, simultaneous data recording, data storing, data processing and evaluation, accordingly, catastrophic process can be detected already in the phase of evolvement.

The process according to the invention will be described by means of examples and the drawings enclosed, wherein: Figure 1 is a possible embodiment of the measuring system for realizing the process according to the invention, in a schemafidal view, showing the detailed arrangement of the underground measuring system, Figure 2 is a further possible embodiment of the complete measuring system in a schematical view.

1. Example Fig. 1 illustrates a measuring system for realizing the process according to the invention, with which on the area tested, around the object intended to be protected /so e.g. a nuclear power station, a water power plant, a chemical plant/ Fn deep-boreholes are formed / wherein n stands expediently for four /, into said deep boreholes Fn the underground detector systems formed as borehole instruments are arranged. On the bottom-point Tn, on the depth-level Zn the detector system 1 n, on the depth level Z'n, opposite to a properly porous layer agglomerate the auxiliary detector system 2n and on the depth level Z"n, opposite to a compacted rock-aggregate a further complementary detector system 3n are arranged.By means of the detector system 1 n arranged on the bottom point Tn we measure the bottom pressure, the bottom temperature and the changes thereof, and - considering elesticity properties of the rock - the oscillation of at least two selected audio-frequency bands. In order to be able to carry out measurings, the detector system 1 n is formed as a combination of the known instruments generally used in geophysical measuring practice with deep-boring carotages, so e.g. instruments disclosed in the Hungarian Patent Specification 188 920 /Márföldi et al./ can be used.

By means of the detector system 2n - being a complementary system - arranged on the depth level Z'n, opposite to the porous layer aggregate, we measure through the piping provided with a filter the pressure, temperature of the borehole liquid /deep borehole Fn/, the gradients /value of differential changes / thereof, as well as extent of translucence, gas saturation, the changes thereof, electric resistance and current, as well as horizontal and vertical values of the electrochemical potential and the changes thereof. In addition we measure the population of the microorganisms in the borehole liquid, their timely change. Said measuring processes are also carried out by using known measuring instruments. Pressure and temperature of the borehole liquid can be measured by means of the instruments having been applied with the detector system 1 n.

For measuring electric resistance, conductivity, natural resp. excited potential, as well as for measuring electrochemical potential, known measuring devices can be suitably used disclosed in the Hungarian Patent Specifications 146 046 (Marfoldi et al.), 154 144 (Marfoldi et al.), 154 133 (Ma'rf6ldi et al.), 163 743 (Márföldi et al.).

Measuring instruments for measuring electric and electrochemical potential are provided with electrode pairs for sensing the vertical and horizontal components of said values, accordingly, properly separated measuring channels are used.

As it becomes obvious from Fig. 1, on the depth-level Z"n, a further complementary detector system 3n is arranged, opposite to a properly compacted rock aggregate. /It is realizable arrangement, recommended in dependence of the geological features of the area tested, in so far as the detector systems 3n and 2n should be arranged on identical depth levels Z'n resp. Z"n/.

With the embodiment specified here, with the complementary detector system 3n we are measuring natural radioactivity, magnetic parameters, as well as seismic signals and the changes thereof. The unit sensing seismic signal frequencies is provided with at least one selective filter element having been tuned to infrasonic, sonic or ultrasonic frequency. In our case, out of the known apparatuses we use the required modern measuring devices /e.g.

the series K 300-K 1500 of the firm of MA ELGI/ for measuring natural radio-activity.

In accordance with geophysical practice usual with deep borehole instruments, the detector systems 1n, 2n and 3n are designed as probes, being properly resistant to liquids, pressure and temperature, expediently in a compact embodiment is compliance of the aforementioned measuring groupping. Said instruments are connected via the transmission element 5n /with a carotage cable with the proper number of cores/, in case of necessity through the amplifier and filter units 4n, with the data-receiver measuring apparatuses arranged on the surface, in our case with a multi-channel registering unit 6n. The multichannel registering system 6n is built-up of the registering resp. data storing elements of the known design, consisting of mechnic /e.g.

line-recording/, optical, magnetic and digital signal recording apparatuses, resp. the combination thereof. In addition to measuring data, the multi-channel registering system records also the space and time parameters belonging to the single measuring data.

The further essential element of the measuring system thus developed is the seismic observatory 0, the seismographs of which deliver the surfacial measuring data, considering simultaneously as a reference.

The seismic observatory 0 is concerned via the telemetrical system Tr with the other remote measuring places, accordingly, it is interconnected with the signalling systems of its own country resp. with international nets. Simultaneously, the telemetrical system receives the measuring data arriving above the surface, so e.g. from the satellite/s/, so infrared image of the area, the value of radioactive radiation and eventual changes thereof. Measuring data having been obtained from the seismic observatory 0 and the telemetrical system Tr together with the relating three-dimensional and time parameters - are recorded with the multi-channel registering system 6n, resp.

stored therein, this fact is represented in Fig.

1, the discontinuous arrows starting from the observatory 0 and the telemetrical system Tr and pointing to the multi-channel registering system 6n. The centre of the measuring system, wherein measured data are processed, evaluated and in case, if a dangerous situation is to be prognostised, required precautionary measures, e.g. alarming is initiated, is formed in the seismic observatory 0 in itself, as a consequence, the telemetrical means staying at disposal in the observatory can be utilized in a most economical manner. Accordingly, the measuring data stored in in the multi-channel registering system 6n are forwarded simultaneously into the seismic observatory 0, more accurately, into the measuring centre therein, as it is indicated by the discontinuous arrow starting from the multi-channel registering system 6n and pointing to the seismic observatory 0.By the aid of the measuring system thus developed /the block schematic of which is to be seen in Fig. 1, /we realize the process according to the invention, as follows: From the detector systems 1n, 2n resp. 3n arranged in the deep-boreholes Fn located around the object intended to be protected, arranged in the proper geodynamic polygon arrive the results of underground measurings, from the seismographs of the observatory 0 the data of surfacial measurings, while through the telemetrical system Tr measuring data of remote and surfacial measurings arrive simultaneously and continuously to the multi-channel registering system 6n, as well as to the measuring centre in the seismic observatory 0. In the multi-channel registering system 6n and simultaneously therewith, in the measuring centre measuring data are continuously processed and interpreted.

Under processing the measuring data partly it is meant that time function of the signals, their maximal value, eventual periodicity of the signals/ cycle parameters of the processes /, timely change /first differential quotient/, velocity of changes /second differential quotient/ are determined, furtheron, all the values measured and determined-out of which some are interdependent, some independent values- are collectively evaluated.In course of evaluation we examine /determine/ at the measuring data having been gained in the single deepboreholes Fn the timely change of the single measuring parameters /so e.g. pressure, temperature, electric resistance, electrochemical potential, in a measuring point each, /accordingly relating to themselves/, ratio of the values of parameters of the same character having been measured in the same deep-borehole Fn but on different depth-levels Zn, Z'n and Z"n and the timely change of said ratios /that means that spatial and timely changes are simultaneously determined/, while in this case, expediently data measured on the bottom-point Tn are considered as a base of comparison, furtheron we examine /determine/ the mutual relation of the parameter values of identical character having been gained in the single deep boreholes Fn, resp.

the changes of said relations /so e.g. the changes of pressure and temperature on the bottom-point Tn/, furtheron, we examine /determine/ the extent of common changes of certain - suitably chosen - parameter combinations, (both in space and time), in accordance with the aforementioned system of comparison, resp. measuring characteristics, as e.g. amplitude, periodicity, velocity of change. So e.g. we may collectively evaluate the pore volume, resistance of liquid, layer temperature, electrochemical potential, layer pressure and adequate level changes of mictovibrations, optionally evaluation can be completed with a complete series of parameters observed by means of a complete measuring system having been built-in - in addition to the usual layout - into an instrument carriage.

Furtheron, we examine and determine the intensity of changes to be measured on the surface and above the surface and their relation to the velocity of change of the values measured underground. Accordingly, a most essential feature of the process lies in that measuring results having been obtained underground are compared to surfacial measuring data /in our case to the seismological data considered as a reference / as well as they are evaluated and compared with measuring data obtained above the surface /so e.g.

change of the infrared image of the area, radioactive radiation/, simultaneously considering concrete geological environment, morphologic and topologic data, and basic characteristics of the area.

The measuring results thus processed are evaluated. On basis of the spatial and timely change of the values of the single parameters and parameter groups, extent and periodicity of velocity changes etc. we determine the time-series of eventually arising processes, by means of a programme for the quantitative extrapolation of said time-series /so-called praedictor programmes/ we determine the prognosis -with a quantitative probability- in respect the time and extent of the seismicity to be expected.

In dependence of the result of the task of interpretation, a situation of earthquake danger is rendered probable in all cases, in which in respect to two independent parameters /resp.

parameter groups/ the previously empirically fixed, critical value is obtained as a result of extrapolation, in this case we alarm and give the command for making the necessary precautionary measures. This mode of evaluation, taking place with a high safety factor, we consider as imperative, considering extraordinary significance of the task in respect of life-, and material security. Economic damages resulting from the damage of an operating nuclear power plant or the damage of a chemical plant producing toxic materials under the effect of an earthquake are far surpassing the value of the sun, which seems to be spent "superfluously", when applying the process according to the invention, i.e. when a command is given for putting the object in question out of operation.Avoidance of the catastrophe claiming human lives in addition to economic damages is recommended not only in economically optimal case but also in cases, which can be rendered probable.

2. Example A schematic view of the further embodiment of the measuring system having been developed for realizing the process according to the invention is to be seen in Fig. 2.

The surfacial seismological measuring data to be seen in the Figure are delivered by the seismological observatory 0, whereas the signals of the seismograph group 11 of which are led expediently through an amplifier unit E to an A/D converter, thereafter, the signals thus converted with the proper amplitude level and frequency are forwarded via the radiotransmitter RA to the computer-aided centre SZK of the measuring system. Further surfacial resp. underground measurings are performed by means of the automatic measuring system AM, the single measuring instruments thereof are located onto the area tested resp. into the environment of the object intended to be protected, in course of locating geographic and rock characteristics are to be considered.

In case of the present example surfacial measurings include geomagnetic, gravimetric, geoelectric and geodetic measurements, accordingly, surfacial measuring devices of the automatic measuring system AM consists of the instrument 12 measuring geomagnetic values, so e.g. a MTV-2-type variometer of the firm of MT -GGKI / Hungary a magnetotelluric protonprecession magnetometer, of the gravimeter 13, the laser strain meter 14, the rock - strain gauge connected thereto and the geoelectric metering instrument 15 /e.g. inductive probe/.

Said measuring means are generally used in geophysical, geodetic measuring technique, however, for purposes being different from those according to the invention.

When developing our measuring system, out of several known types of the measuring devices we also used measuring devices according to the Hungarian Patent Specification 186 678 "Process and circuit arrangement for determining the structural and constitutional characteristics of the soil..." /Adam et al./.

With the measuring instruments measurings were carried out continously, resp. with the suitable sampling frequency, simultaneously, by means of the instruments having been arranged in the area tested, in the deep boreholes Fn surrounding the object intended to be protected, underground measurings were carried out, as described in connection with Example 1.

The automatic measuring system AM contains as a further element a telemetrical system Tr, which receives partly the measuring data coming above the surface, so e.g. from a satellite, so tha changes of the infrared image of the territory, of the radioactive radiation, partly the measuring data coming from farther measuring points.

The single surfacial and above the surface measuring instruments, so the instrument 12 measuring geomagnetic values, the gravimeter 13, the laser strain-meter, the geoelectric measuring instrument 15 and the measuring devices located in the deep borehole Fn /not illustrated in Fig. 2/, as well as the telemetrical system Tr are connected via the amplifier E to the A/D' analog to digital converter and via the radiotransmitter RA' - arranged at the output - measuring data arrive to the computer-aided centre SZK in this case too.

The computer-aided centre SZK is connected via the radioreceivers RV resp. RV' with the radiotransmitter RA of the seismic observatory 0, resp. with the radiotransmitter RA' of the automatic measuring system AM.

Radio-receivers RV and RV' are connected to the data-receiver AF of the computer-aided centre SZK. Measuring data having been measured, converted and telecommunicated in course of the process are provided with time signals of the clock T being connected to the data-receiver AF, thereafter the data are forwarded to the registering unit, in our case to the ink-writer TK and to the data-memory AT.

Forwarding, receipt storing and/or visual analogous display of the measuring data is taking place continuously and simultaneously with measuring. The output of the data-memory is connected to the computer-technical unit SZTE of the computerized centre SZK, wherein - simultaneously with data-storing the data are processed and evaluated. The design of the computer-technical unit SZTE in itself is well-known, it comprises in the usual way a computer SZG, the connected peripheries, the display DP, the megnetophon M and the console KO. In dependence of the result of data-processing and interpretation in accordance with the process according to the invention, in case of a danger situation of earthquake the computer-technical unit SZTE actuates the acoustical and optical alarming device HRF arranged on the output.This acoustic-and optical alarming device HFR alarms even if the observatory 0 or/and the automatic measuring system AM got damaged.

The.computer SZG of the computer-technical unit SZTE processes the data in compliance with the data processing aspects having been specified in connection with Fig. 1, thereafter data and function series thus obtained are evaluated. /Time-series of the parameters of the measuring system and the increments thereof, resp. measured and determined data are automatically interpreted according to a quantitatively extrapolating socalled preadictor programme/.

In addition to the automatic digital data-processing of the computer SZG, direct /analogous/ display of the measuring data is of utmost importance, in our case this is realized by the ink-writer TK. In course of interpreting of unexpected, suprisingly new processes, even in case of completely automatized systems, the role of the creative human intelligence must not be disregarded.

As already mentioned in connection with the example according to Fig. 1, in course of the process according to the invention, in all cases, when as a result of data processing resp. evaluation a value previously considered as critical is obtained in respect to two independent parameters, the computer-technical unit SZTE will alarm to a danger situation of earthquake, in course of which necessary precautionary measures are taken.

The measuring process according to the invention including also the detection of the layer aggregates, the physical, chemical and microbiological parameters of the layer liquid filling the pore volume, of the borehole-liquid, as well as the changes thereof, as well as the complex processing method used in course of the process, i.e. that the change of the single parameters are examined in space and time compared to itselves, to each other and examining certain parameter groups are examined in their entirety, as well as the characteristic of the process, in sense of which underground measuring results are compared to those obtained on and above the surface, and said measuring data are evaluated in consideration of prevailing geographic and petrographical conditions yield collectively the possibility to observe tectonic processes already in their starting phase, in statu nascendi, led back on the determination of elastic layer deformations.

Claims (8)

1. A process for the prediction and detection of natural and/or artificially induced seismicity as well as for the preventive protection of artefacts and buildings, in which seismological measurements are carried out and the measured values are telemetered and evaluated, wherein simultaneously with the seismological measurements, either continuously or at a sampling frequency determined by the nature or character of the measurements, the physical and/or geophysical and/or geochemical and/or geodetic, as well as biological and microbiological parameters are detected and measured at the site under investigation, at least two fundamental levels below and/or on and/or above ground level, out of which at least one parameter is observed below ground level, expediently in deep boreholes; additionally the changes of said parameters in space and with time are also measured, the measured values are telemetered or transmitted, recorded and/or stored, and are evaluated so as to determine their amplitude and/or timedependence and/or periodicity and/or frequency spectrum and the rate or steepness of the changes; the measured and determined values are compared in space and time to themselves and/or to the value of one or more of the other paramter(s), the relative intensity and sequentially or time-series of the individual parameters or groups of such parameters as well as their increments are determined; and, taking due account of the geological and rock-physical features of the area or site investigated, the sequentiality or timeseries is/are extrapolated and the danger of earthquakes is signalled in all cases in which as a result of the extrapolation in respect of at least two independent parameters a critical value is obtained, the critical value having been previously determined empirically.

2. A process a claimed in claim 1, wherein above the ground level an infra-red thermal image and/or natural gamma radiation, natural radioactive radiation and single spectral values thereof and/or gravimetric changes thereof are measured, on the soil surface we measure geodetic and/or geoelectric and/or geomagnetic and/or gravimetric parameters, underground the physical, chemical, geophysical and microbiological parameters of the boreholes and/or of the liquid contained in said boreholes, of the layer aggregates confining the boreholes and/or of the layer liquids filling their pore .volume, resp. of gases are measured, as well as on all the three levels spatial and timely changes of said values are measured.

3. Process as claimed in Claim 1 or 2, characterized in that on the soil surface simultaneously geodetic and geoelectric measurings are carried out and in course of geodetic measurings surfacial topographic microchanges are detected both in horizontal and vertical direction, expediently by using laser strain gauges.

4. Process as claimed in Claim 1 or 2, characterized in that underground measurements are realized in deep boreholes, simultaneously on a plurality of depth levels, on the bottom-point of the deep borehole and in a properly porus or/and adequately compact layer while the measured values are compared to each other, preferably to the values having been measured on the bottom-point.

5. Process as claimed in any of the Claims 1, 2 or 4 characterized in that in deep boreholes pressure and temperature, i.e. liquid pressure and/or electric resistance, natural potential and current changes and/or spectra, and/or formation resp. propagation of seismic waves and/or gas saturation resp. liquid translucence, magnetic resp. electrochemical parameters are measured, furtheron, population analysis of suitably chosen microorganisms is carried out and out of said values at least two are simultaneously measured and registered.

6. Process as claimed in any of the Claims 1, 2, 4 or 5 characterized in that underground measuring is performed in a plurality of - expediently four - geologically suitably selected deep boreholes on the area to be tested, so e.g. surrounding the object intended to be protected, while the values of the parameters having been measured in the single deep boreholes as well as their changes are mutually compared.

7. Process as claimed in any of the Claims 1-6 characterized in that in course of electrical and electrochemical measurements the vertical and horizontal components of the measured values are separately measured by the aid of separated pairs of electrodes, respectively of measuring channels.

8. A process according to claim 1 substantially as herein described with reference to and as shown in the accompanying drawings.