Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly solves the technical problems that when the market transaction frequency is increased, the calculation amount is obviously increased, so that the accuracy of a calculation result is not high enough and the calculation efficiency is low in the original technical scheme, and provides an electric power market operation efficiency evaluation method taking a power grid as a visual angle.
The technical problem of the invention is mainly solved by the following technical scheme: the invention comprises the following steps:
(1) acquiring declaration parameters of a power purchasing and selling main body in the market; by evaluating the operation condition of the electric power market, the problems in aspects of evaluating the market potential condition, market competitiveness, electricity price condition, information release and the like are analyzed, so that market participants can comprehensively know the operation condition of the electric power market.
(2) Collecting market supply and demand index parameters;
(3) collecting actual market benefit parameters;
(4) collecting market risk parameters;
(5) and establishing an electric power market operation efficiency evaluation index system and realizing evaluation.
Preferably, the declaration parameters of the electricity purchasing main body in the market in the step 1 include: the total reporting amount of the electricity selling main body is the highest, lowest and average reporting price of the electricity selling main body; the electricity purchasing main body reports the electric quantity, and the electricity purchasing main body reports the highest price, the lowest price and the average price; capacity retention declared, rate of absence declaration, rate of high-priced declaration, rate of fluctuation of quoted prices, rate of convergence of quoted prices. By researching declaration parameters of the electricity purchasing and selling main body in the market, the market momentum condition and the market competition degree can be analyzed. The reported capacity retention condition refers to the difference value between the actual available power generation capacity and the reported capacity of each electricity selling main body; the high price declaration rate refers to the percentage of the declaration electric quantity with the declaration price higher than 95% of the price upper limit to the whole declaration electric quantity; the quotation fluctuation rate represents the percentage of the last-period average declaration price of the difference value of the current-period average declaration price and the last-period average declaration price; the quotation convergence rate is the average variance of the difference between the price declared in the current period and the price declared in the previous period of each main body in percentage of the price declared in the previous period.
Preferably, the market supply and demand index parameters in the step 2 include market supply and demand ratio, market trade supply and demand balance index and market deal index, and the market supply and demand ratio is:
wherein Q isdIs the predicted total market demand, QSIs the total supply;
market trade equilibrium index Ψs:
Wherein QsThe sum of the reported sales electricity quantity of each power generation enterprise in the ith transaction; qdQ, if the market adopts a single quotation mode for the sum of the electricity purchasing quantities declared by each electricity purchasing main body in the ith transactiondIs the system power demand. If t issLess than or equal to 0, indicating that the market supply is not in demand; if t iss> 0, and ΨsThe larger the value, the more abundant the market supply and the more sufficient the competition.
The index mainly reflects the supply and demand balance condition of electric energy in the market. When the market supply is not in demand, namely the index value is less than or tends to 1, the market tends to monopolize, and the competitiveness is lacked; conversely, the more the market competition is. Denominator QSDifferent amounts can be selected according to the evaluation requirements. The total reportable capacity of all suppliers is selected to obtain the capacity supply-demand ratio index, and the actual total reportable capacity is selected to obtain the reportable supply-demand ratio index. The capacity supply-demand ratio reflects the theoretical maximum supply-demand ratio, namely the supply-demand ratio in the market when all power plants can declare the upper limit of the electric quantity according to self declaration. When the capacity to demand ratio is less than 1, it indicates that the total power generation capacity is insufficient to meet the demand, i.e., a so-called "power-out" condition.
Preferably, the market deal type indexes comprise average deal price and deal electric quantity of each deal variety, cross-provincial region deal electric quantity and price, and high price winning rate, and the deal varieties comprise contract deal, spot deal and futures deal. The market deal result is a trade result obtained by a market trade algorithm based on the quote of a market participant. The higher the bid rate in the high price is, the stronger the ability of the power generation enterprise to control the market price is, and the greater the market force is.
Preferably, the actual market benefit parameters in step 3 include: the system comprises an electricity price index, a capacity utilization rate, an energy-saving emission-reducing index, a resource optimization configuration index and a sustainable development index, wherein the electricity price evaluation index comprises a ratio of a market average transaction price to a benchmarking price, a ratio of an average internet surfing electricity price to an average electric medium price, a ratio of an average sale electricity price increase amplitude to a consumption price index CPI increase amplitude, and a ratio of a balance account fund deficit to a total transaction electric quantity. The electricity price index is mainly used for analyzing benefits generated by electricity market operation in the aspect of electricity price. The capacity utilization rate is mainly used for objectively reflecting benefits of power market operation in the aspects of power grid planning and construction. Resource allocation efficiency is a main aspect of market efficiency, and is a question of whether limited resources are effectively allocated to enterprises in the industry and fully utilized.
Preferably, the capacity utilization includes:
comprehensive utilization rate of transmission capacity ═ pil(Pdl/Ptl)
PdlAnd PtlRespectively representing the actual maximum transmission capacity and the maximum transmission capacity of the Lth transmission line;
comprehensive utilization rate of transforming capacity ═ pil(Pds/Pts)
PdsAnd PtsRepresenting the actual maximum capacity and maximum load capacity of the S-th substation, respectively.
Preferably, the step 4 market risk parameters include market policy risk and market finance risk, the market policy risk includes a policy comfort index and a policy stability index, and the market finance risk includes a risk value VaR and a financing adequacy.
Preferably, the step 5 establishes an electric power market operation efficiency evaluation index system, establishes a system layer, a state layer and an index layer in pair comparison judgment preference matrix based on the acquired data, determines and analyzes the relevance and the importance of the original index group by adopting a grey relevance analysis method, and further screens out the key indexes.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the initial weight coefficient of each layer is as follows:
respectively calculating each initial weight of a system layer, a state layer and an index layer;
normalizing the weight coefficient of each layer, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
namely, the initial weight of each layer is correspondingly normalized;
the consistency index is used for checking whether logic disorder exists in the relatively limited sequence of the index, when CI is less than 0.10, no logic disorder exists, each item weight is obtained through calculation, and the calculation formula is as follows:
where m is the number of sub-indices of the level of acceptance of the test, λmaxIs the maximum characteristic root, λiJudging the characteristic root of the preferred matrix for the layer of sub-targets by pair comparison;
to measure the magnitude of CI, a random consistency index RI is introduced:
the random consistency index RI is related to the order number of the judgment matrix, and CI is compared with the random consistency index RI to obtain a check coefficient CR, wherein the formula is as follows:
if CR <0.1, the decision matrix passes the consistency check, otherwise it does not have satisfactory consistency.
Preferably, the total evaluation target of the evaluation target is comprehensively evaluated, that is, a comprehensive score index GI is calculated, and the calculation formula is:
wherein P isiIs the measured value of the ith evaluation index, and m is the number of the evaluation indexes;
and finally, calculating a comprehensive evaluation index, wherein the evaluation set of the power market rule quality degree is divided into 5 grades V (smaller, medium lower, medium upper and large), namely, the comprehensive evaluation result of effective competition in the power market is classified into a certain grade, and the corresponding score is {0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8 and 1 }.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the evaluation system is established on the basis of research on main factors influencing the market operation efficiency in the power market, the main factors influencing the market operation efficiency in the power market are researched mainly from the aspects of market stability, market safety, market effectiveness, market economy, market environmental friendliness and the like by taking a power grid as a main visual angle, and the aim of improving the power industry operation efficiency is fulfilled.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the invention is further specifically described by the following embodiments.
Example (b): the method for evaluating the operation efficiency of the power market with the power grid as the visual angle comprises the following steps:
(1) acquiring declaration parameters of a power purchasing and selling main body in the market, wherein the declaration parameters of the power purchasing and selling main body in the market comprise: the total reporting amount of the electricity selling main body is the highest, lowest and average reporting price of the electricity selling main body; the electricity purchasing main body reports the electric quantity, and the electricity purchasing main body reports the highest price, the lowest price and the average price; capacity retention declared, rate of absence declaration, rate of high-priced declaration, rate of fluctuation of quoted prices, rate of convergence of quoted prices. By evaluating the operation condition of the electric power market, the problems in aspects of evaluating the market potential condition, market competitiveness, electricity price condition, information release and the like are analyzed, so that market participants can comprehensively know the operation condition of the electric power market. The reported capacity retention condition refers to the difference value between the actual available power generation capacity and the reported capacity of each electricity selling main body; the high price declaration rate refers to the percentage of the declaration electric quantity with the declaration price higher than 95% of the price upper limit to the whole declaration electric quantity; the quotation fluctuation rate represents the percentage of the last-period average declaration price of the difference value of the current-period average declaration price and the last-period average declaration price; the quotation convergence rate is the average variance of the difference between the price declared in the current period and the price declared in the previous period of each main body in percentage of the price declared in the previous period.
By researching declaration parameters of the electricity purchasing and selling main body in the market, the market momentum condition and the market competition degree can be analyzed.
(2) Collecting market supply and demand index parameters including market supply and demand ratio, market trade supply and demand balance index and market deal index, market supply and demand ratio:
the index mainly reflects the supply and demand balance condition of electric energy in the market. When the market supply is not in demand, namely the index value is less than or tends to 1, the market tends to monopolize, and the competitiveness is lacked; conversely, the more the market competition is. Denominator QSDifferent amounts can be selected according to the evaluation requirements. The total reportable capacity of all suppliers is selected to obtain the capacity supply-demand ratio index, and the actual total reportable capacity is selected to obtain the reportable supply-demand ratio index. The capacity supply-demand ratio reflects the theoretical maximum supply-demand ratio, i.e. when all the power plants are in accordance withThe self can declare the upper limit of the electric quantity, and the supply and demand ratio is provided in the market. When the capacity to demand ratio is less than 1, it indicates that the total power generation capacity is insufficient to meet the demand, i.e., a so-called "power-out" condition.
Market trade equilibrium index Ψs:
Wherein QsThe sum of the reported sales electricity quantity of each power generation enterprise in the ith transaction; qdQ, if the market adopts a single quotation mode for the sum of the electricity purchasing quantities declared by each electricity purchasing main body in the ith transactiondIs the system power demand.
Wherein Q isdIs the predicted total market demand, QSIs the total supply. If t issLess than or equal to 0, indicating that the market supply is not in demand; if t iss> 0, and ΨsThe larger the value, the more abundant the market supply and the more sufficient the competition.
The market transaction indexes comprise average transaction price and transaction electric quantity of each transaction variety, cross-provincial region transaction electric quantity and price, and high price winning rate. The trade varieties comprise contract trade, spot trade and futures trade. The market deal result is a trade result obtained by a market trade algorithm based on the quote of a market participant. The higher the bid rate in the high price is, the stronger the ability of the power generation enterprise to control the market price is, and the greater the market force is.
(3) Collecting actual market benefit parameters, including: the system comprises an electricity price index, a capacity utilization rate, an energy-saving emission-reducing index, a resource optimization configuration index and a sustainable development index, wherein the electricity price evaluation index comprises a ratio of a market average transaction price to a benchmarking price, a ratio of an average internet surfing electricity price to an average electric medium price, a ratio of an average sale electricity price increase amplitude to a consumption price index CPI increase amplitude, and a ratio of a balance account fund deficit to a total transaction electric quantity. The electricity price index is mainly used for analyzing benefits generated by electricity market operation in the aspect of electricity price.
The capacity utilization includes:
comprehensive utilization rate of transmission capacity ═ pil(Pdl/Ptl)
PdlAnd PtlRespectively representing the actual maximum transmission capacity and the maximum transmission capacity of the L-th transmission line.
Comprehensive utilization rate of transforming capacity ═ pil(Pds/Pts)
PdsAnd PtsRepresenting the actual maximum capacity and maximum load capacity of the S-th substation, respectively.
The capacity utilization rate is mainly used for objectively reflecting benefits of power market operation in the aspects of power grid planning and construction.
The environmental protection indexes are divided into two categories of environmental protection, emission reduction and energy conservation and consumption reduction. The indexes of energy saving and consumption reduction mainly concern the emission of pollutants such as carbon, nitrogen, sulfide and the like in unit generated energy according to the indexes of environmental protection and emission reduction of the coal consumption rate of power generation.
The resource allocation efficiency is a main aspect of market efficiency, and is a problem of measuring whether limited resources are effectively allocated to enterprises of the industry and fully utilized, and the resource optimization allocation index comprises a proportion of power transmission and distribution investment across the saved transaction rate.
The sustainable development index includes unit GDP power consumption, ratio of power consumption to annual GDP growth rate, profit margin and economic realization degree of scale. The index is equal to the ratio of the power consumed by a country throughout the year to its total GDP value. The unit GDP power consumption reflects the electric quantity which the unit GDP depends on, comprehensively reflects the energy utilization efficiency of the country, indirectly reflects the scientific and technological development level and the production management level of the country, and is an important basis for the sustainable development of the country. The smaller the index value, the better the result.
The ratio of the electricity consumption to the annual rate of increase of the GDP is equal to the ratio of the electricity consumption to the annual average rate of increase of the GDP, and the trend of electricity consumption can be reflected. In general, only the case where the power consumption and the annual average GDP growth rate are positive will be considered. The lower the ratio, the better the situation of the trend of electricity utilization, and the more appreciable the economic sustainability.
The cost profit margin is the ratio of the total amount of sales profit to the total amount of sales cost over a certain period of time. It indicates the profit gained by the unit sales cost, reflecting the relationship between cost and profit. Profitability is a relative indicator that reflects the level of profits of a business over a period of time. The profit rate index can not only assess the completion condition of enterprise profit plans, but also compare the operation and management levels among enterprises and in different periods, thereby improving economic benefits.
The economy of scale refers to that the unit cost of an enterprise is reduced due to the improvement of the production specialization level and the like, so that the economy that the long-term average cost of the enterprise is reduced along with the increase of the yield is formed. The degree of realization of economies of scale is an important aspect in judging the sustainable development of the electricity market. Economies of scale are measured by the market share of the minimum economic size enterprise (MES). The index shows whether or not the MES enterprise is a main supplier of the industrial market, and thus accurately reflects the degree of realization of the industrial-scale economy.
(4) Collecting market risk parameters, including: market policy risk and market finance risk, including risk value VaR and financing adequacy. The market policy risk includes a policy comfort index and a policy stability index. Market financial risk includes risk value VaR and financing adequacy.
The risk value VaR, in the electricity market, due to the large fluctuations in electricity prices, may suffer from losses, i.e. financial risks, to market participants while possibly obtaining benefits. The risk value VaR is an international popular risk management method, and the risk caused by power price fluctuation can be well evaluated by calculating the VaR with given confidence coefficient. Commonly used methods for calculating VaR include historical simulation, analytical methods, Monte-Carlo methods, and the like.
Financing adequacy is an important economic indicator of the development of the power industry, which is defined as the amount of available investment funds divided by the investment fund demand. Appropriate power generation and transmission investment can ensure the sufficiency of power generation and transmission capacity in a period of time in the future, avoid the condition of insufficient power supply, and play a promoting role in the development of society and economy.
(5) Establishing an electric power market operation efficiency evaluation index system, establishing a system layer, a state layer and an index layer which are paired and compared to judge an optimal matrix on the basis of collected data, determining and analyzing the relevance and the importance of an original index group by adopting a grey relevance analysis method, and further screening out key indexes.
The golden section point is considered to have the best result according to the preferred law principle. In practical applications, it is found that the correlation between the influence factors which generally have a dominant effect on the variation trend of the object and the object is substantially about 0.6 or more. Therefore, in this document, the main influence factor is screened using the gray relevance ratio by using 0.6 as a standard, and an index having the relevance ratio above is selected as the main influence factor.
(1) Establishing a pair-wise comparison judgment optimal matrix of each layer
The scoring criteria for each level are shown in the table below
TABLE 1
As for the system layer:
system layer
|
Market operations
|
Market revenue
|
Market risk
|
Market operations
|
a11 |
a12 |
a13 |
Market revenue
|
a21 |
a22 |
a23 |
Market risk
|
a31 |
a32 |
a33 |
TABLE 2
And sequentially analogizing the paired comparison of the state layer and the index layer to judge the optimal matrix.
(2) Calculating initial weight coefficient of each layer
The calculation formula is as follows:
namely, each initial weight of the three layers of the system layer, the state layer and the index layer is respectively calculated.
(3) Normalization of weighting factors of layers
The calculation formula is as follows:
i.e. the corresponding normalization of the initial weights of each layer.
(4) Consistency check
The relatively limited order of the indices is checked for logical confusion by the consistency index, which is believed to be possible when CI <0.10, i.e., the calculated weights are acceptable. The calculation formula is as follows:
where m is the number of sub-indices of the level of acceptance of the test, λmaxIs the maximum characteristic root, λiAnd judging the characteristic root of the preferred matrix for the layer of the sub-target pair-wise comparison.
To measure the magnitude of CI, a random consistency index RI is introduced:
the random consistency index RI is related to the order of the judgment matrix, and in general, the larger the order of the matrix, the higher the probability of occurrence of consistency random deviation. In addition, considering that the deviation of consistency may be caused by random reasons, when checking whether the judgment matrix has satisfactory consistency, the method needs to compare CI with the random consistency index RI to obtain a checking coefficient CR, where the formula is as follows:
generally, the decision matrix is considered to pass the consistency check if CR <0.1, otherwise it does not have satisfactory consistency.
And calculating the combination weight of each level evaluation index, wherein the combination weight of each level evaluation index is the product of the corresponding weight coefficients of each level.
Comprehensively evaluating the total evaluation target of the evaluation object, namely calculating a comprehensive scoring index GI, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein P isiIs the measured value of the ith evaluation index, and m is the number of the evaluation indexes.
And finally, calculating a comprehensive rating index, wherein the comprehensive rating index is divided into 5 grades V (relatively small, medium lower, medium upper and medium upper) in a power market rule quality evaluation set, namely, a comprehensive rating result for effective competition of a power market is classified into a certain grade, and the corresponding score is {0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8 and 1}, namely, the comprehensive rating result is divided into 5 grades V (relatively small, medium lower, medium upper and large) in the power market rule quality evaluation set, namely, the comprehensive rating result for effective competition of the
The effective competition comprehensive grading grades of the power market and the corresponding values are as the following table
Grade
|
Score value
|
Is relatively small
|
[0-0.2]
|
Moderate partial downward
|
(0.2-0.4]
|
Medium and high grade
|
(0.4-0.6]
|
On the middle upper side
|
(0.6-0.8]
|
Is very big
|
(0.8-1.0] |
TABLE 3
The specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the spirit of the invention. Various modifications or additions may be made to the described embodiments or alternatives may be employed by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit or ambit of the invention as defined in the appended claims.
Although terms such as claim quantity, supply and demand index parameter, etc. are used more often herein, the possibility of using other terms is not excluded. These terms are used merely to more conveniently describe and explain the nature of the present invention; they are to be construed as being without limitation to any additional limitations that may be imposed by the spirit of the present invention.