CN111027869B - Rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of reliability analysis, and discloses a rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration. The method comprises the following steps: s1, comprehensively obtaining reliability definition and range related to safety according to the safety requirement and the reliability requirement of a product; s2, analyzing a product system, and determining the composition, the function and the task profile of the product; s3, establishing a safety model, a reliability model and a safety and reliability comprehensive model of the product; s4, according to the basic structure/composition of the product and the past application data of the parts, a reliability prediction method and a statistical method are adopted to evaluate and analyze the safety and the reliability of the system; s5, analyzing importance degree of failure probability of the parts according to the S3 reliability comprehensive model to obtain sensitivity data of influence of the parts on the overall safety reliability of the product; s6, formulating proper and effective improvement measures according to the sensitivity analysis result. And the safety and reliability of the verification system are calculated through a mathematical model of the safety and reliability comprehensive model, so that the safety and reliability of the product are ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of reliability analysis, in particular to a rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration.
Background
For civil product markets, customers often have less demanding requirements on small fault indexes and very important consideration on characteristics related to product use and maintenance, while in traditional reliability analysis, qualitative analysis methods (such as fault tree analysis, fault modes, influence analysis and the like) focus on rough analysis and prevention of risks, quantitative analysis methods (namely probability analysis methods) (such as an accurate analysis method, a Monte Carlo simulation method, a first second order moment method, a second third order moment method and the like) focus on data calculation and have larger calculation workload, and both analysis methods lack specific, comprehensive and accurate analysis on reliability item points related to safety, so that the meaning of reliability analysis results is limited, and the doubt of customers on product safety cannot be fundamentally eliminated.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem solved by the invention is to overcome the defects of the prior art, and provide the reliability analysis method for the rail transit products, which can conduct targeted, comprehensive and accurate analysis on reliability item points related to safety based on safety consideration.
The aim of the invention is achieved by the following technical scheme:
a method for analyzing the reliability of a rail transit product based on safety considerations, comprising the steps of:
s1, comprehensively obtaining reliability definition and range related to safety according to the safety requirement and the reliability requirement of a product;
s2, performing system analysis on the selected product, and determining the composition, the function and the task profile of the product;
s3, establishing a safety model, a reliability model and a safety and reliability comprehensive model of the product;
s4, evaluating and analyzing the safety reliability of the system by adopting a reliability prediction method and a statistical method according to the basic structure/composition of the product and the past application data/test data/simulation data of the parts of the product;
s5, analyzing importance degree of failure probability of the parts according to the reliability comprehensive model in the S3, and obtaining sensitivity data of influence of the parts on the overall safety reliability of the product;
s6, formulating proper and effective improvement measures according to the sensitivity analysis result.
Further, the safety and reliability comprehensive model is comprehensively obtained by the safety model and the reliability model.
Further, the system safety reliability evaluation process in S4 is: firstly, evaluating the failure rate lambda of other parts in a safe and reliable comprehensive model by using an expert evaluation method through parts with known failure rates in the comprehensive model; then, minitab software is adopted, and the reliability of each part of the product at the time t is analyzed and calculated according to the fault data of each part of the product; converting the serial/parallel relation in the safety and reliability comprehensive model into a reliability mathematical model, and comprehensively obtaining the mathematical model of the safety and reliability comprehensive model; finally, calculating the system safety reliability, and comparing with the required system safety reliability;
the reliability mathematical model mainly has a series connection relation and a parallel connection relation, and the mathematical model of the series connection relation is R t ＝R 1 ×R 2 ×......×R N The mathematical model of the parallel relation is R t ＝1-(1-R 1 )(1-R 2 )......(1-R N ) Wherein t is the required security service duration, R 1 、R 2 ......R N And S3, the reliability of each part of the safety reliability comprehensive model is obtained.
Still further, the component failure probability importance analysis in S5 is performed according to the following formula:
I i c ＝(F i /F s )×d F s /d F i
wherein I is i c F, for the failure probability importance degree of the ith part in the safety and reliability comprehensive model i F, for the failure probability of the ith part in the safety and reliability comprehensive model s For the system safety failure probability, the failure rate calculation formula of the parallel model is F s ＝F 1 ×F 2 ×......×F N The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The calculation formula of the failure rate of the series model is F s ＝F 1 +F 2 +......+F N 。
Comparing the importance degree I of failure probability of each part i c And finding out parts with larger influence on the overall safety failure of the product.
And further, combining the parts with larger influence on the overall safety failure of the product, which are obtained in the step S5, selecting corresponding parts with higher quality grades in the step S6, and verifying the safety reliability of the improved system according to the safety reliability comprehensive model until the required safety reliability of the system is reached.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the product safety requirements are subdivided into safety quantitative and qualitative requirements, a safety and reliability comprehensive model is obtained by the comprehensive safety model and the reliability model and is used as failure guidance, the safety and reliability of the system is calculated, analyzed and verified through the related reliability mathematical model, and finally proper and effective improvement measures are determined, so that the safety and reliability analysis effectiveness of the product is ensured, and the safety and reliability of the product is truly realized.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a reliability model built in example 1;
FIG. 2 is a security model built in example 1;
fig. 3 is a safety reliability integrated model built in embodiment 1.
Detailed Description
The present invention will now be described further in connection with the following detailed description, wherein the drawings are for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to be limiting; for the purpose of better illustrating embodiments of the invention, certain elements of the drawings may be omitted, enlarged or reduced and do not represent the size of the actual product; it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that certain well-known structures in the drawings and descriptions thereof may be omitted.
Example 1
The method for analyzing the reliability of the rail transit product based on the safety consideration comprises the following steps:
s1, comprehensively obtaining reliability definition and range related to safety according to the safety requirement and the reliability requirement of a product, wherein the safety requirement comprises safety quantitative and qualitative requirements, such as safety probability, disaster failure rate, no more than a few levels of environmental pollution, no more than a few levels of disability due to personnel injury, no environmental pollution, no locomotive parking and the like;
s2, performing system analysis on the selected product, and determining the composition, the function and the task profile of the product;
s3, building a safety model and a reliability model of the product according to the composition, the function and the task section of the product, and building a safety and reliability comprehensive model;
s4, evaluating and analyzing the safety reliability of the system by adopting a reliability prediction method and a statistical method according to the basic structure/composition of the product and the past application data/test data/simulation data of the parts of the product;
s5, analyzing importance degree of failure probability of the parts according to the safety reliability comprehensive model in the S3, and obtaining sensitivity data of influence of the parts on the overall safety reliability of the product;
s6, formulating proper and effective improvement measures according to the sensitivity analysis result.
In order to further embody the reliability analysis method, the urban rail vehicle equipment compartment is specifically taken as an example for detailed description, and mainly comprises an apron board module, a bottom board module and a framework module, wherein the three modules form an equipment compartment body together, maintain the integral connectivity of the compartment body and protect equipment in the compartment body. The apron board module comprises an apron board welding body, an apron board body at an overhaul port, a safety lock (3 handles) and a safety lifting rope (1); the bottom plate module comprises a bottom plate body (1), bolts (2) and anti-falling pins (1); the framework module comprises framework bodies (1) and bolts (innumerable). When large articles (namely a baseboard body and a skirtboard body at an access hole) on the equipment cabin fall off, serious threat is caused to the running safety of the urban rail car, and accordingly urban rail car safety faults are caused.
First, according to the product safety requirements and the reliability requirements, the comprehensively determined reliability definitions and ranges related to safety are shown in table 1:
table 1 relates to a safe reliability definition and scope determination table
According to the composition, function and task section of the equipment cabin, the following reliability model and safety model are established:
1) The reliability model is shown in figure 1;
2) The security model is shown in figure 2.
The reliability model and the safety model combined with fig. 1 and fig. 2 are combined to build a safety reliability comprehensive model as shown in fig. 3.
The safety and reliability comprehensive model of the embodiment integrates the parallel relationship and the series relationship, and then carries out system safety and reliability evaluation, and selects the safety lock with abundant application data as the known fault rate component (fault rate is 10000E -9 ) The failure rates (lambda) of the lifting rope (disconnection), the bolt (complete loosening) and the anti-derailing pin (disconnection) are respectively 600E by adopting an expert evaluation method to evaluate the failure rates affecting the system safety -9 、 4800E -9 、12000E -9 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Adopting minitab software to analyze and calculate the reliability of the lifting rope, the bolt and the anti-derailing pin at the time t=20000; then according to the comprehensive model of the safety reliability of the upper graph, calculating the safety reliability of the system as R when t=20000 20000 ＝R Apron board body ×R Bottom plate body ＝[1-(1-R Lock with locking mechanism ) 3 (1-R Lifting rope )]×[1-(1-R Bolt ) 2 (1-R Anti-drop pin )]= 0.9981, and cannot satisfy the requirement of not less than 99.9% of clients.
And then analyzing the importance degree of the failure probability of the part according to the safety and reliability comprehensive model, and specifically adopting the following formula to calculate:
F Secure ＝F lock with locking mechanism 3 ×F Lifting rope +F Bolt 2 ×F Anti-drop pin
According to formula I i c ＝(F i /F s )×dF s /dF i And respectively obtaining the importance degree of failure probability of the lock, the lifting rope, the bolt and the anti-derailing pin:
comparing the result of the derivation, see I Lock with locking mechanism >I Lifting rope The same applies to the determination of I Bolt And I Anti-drop pin After that, it can be known that I Bolt >I Anti-drop pin The four derivative results are sequenced, so that the influence of the failure rate of the safety lock and the bolts on the overall safety failure of the equipment compartment is larger than that of the lifting rope and the anti-derailment pin, and the reliability of the safety lock and the bolts is improved, and the improvement effect of the reliability of the safety lock and the bolts on the overall safety reliability of the equipment compartment is larger than that of the lifting rope and the anti-derailment pin, namely the sensitivity data in S5.
According to the sensitivity analysis result, selecting a safety lock and a bolt with higher quality grade, and continuing to use a formula R after selecting 20000 ＝R Apron board body ×R Bottom plate body ＝[1-(1-R Lock with locking mechanism ) 3 (1-R Lifting rope )]×[1-(1-R Bolt ) 2 (1-R Anti-drop pin )]Verification is performed until the selected security lock and bolt enable R 20000 The safety requirement of the equipment cabin can be met when the safety requirement is more than or equal to 0.999.
According to the method, the safety and reliability comprehensive model is obtained through the comprehensive reliability model and the safety model, the reliability prediction method is used for evaluating and analyzing the safety and reliability of the product, then the importance degree analysis of the failure probability of the parts is carried out, the influence degree of the reliability of each part of the product on the overall safety and reliability of the product is analyzed, design improvement measures are formulated accordingly, and the high efficiency, the effectiveness and the pertinence of the reliability analysis are improved.
It is apparent that the above examples are only examples for clearly illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and are not limiting of the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations or modifications of the above teachings will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art. It is not necessary here nor is it exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. which come within the spirit and principles of the invention are desired to be protected by the following claims.
Claims (4)
1. A method for analyzing the reliability of a rail transit product based on safety considerations, comprising the steps of:
s1, comprehensively obtaining reliability definition and range related to safety according to the safety requirement and the reliability requirement of a product;
s2, performing system analysis on the selected product, and determining the composition, the function and the task profile of the product;
s3, establishing a safety model, a reliability model and a safety and reliability comprehensive model of the product;
s4, evaluating and analyzing the safety reliability of the system by adopting a reliability prediction method and a statistical method according to the basic structure or composition of the product and the past application data or test data or simulation data of the parts of the product;
s5, analyzing importance degree of failure probability of the parts according to the reliability comprehensive model in the S3, and obtaining sensitivity data of influence of the parts on the overall safety reliability of the product;
s6, formulating proper and effective improvement measures according to the sensitivity analysis result;
the safety and reliability comprehensive model is comprehensively obtained by the safety model and the reliability model.
2. The method for analyzing the reliability of rail transit products based on the safety consideration according to claim 1, wherein the system safety reliability evaluation process performed in S4 is as follows: firstly, evaluating the failure rate lambda of other parts in a safe and reliable comprehensive model by using an expert evaluation method through parts with known failure rates in the comprehensive model; then, minitab software is adopted, and the reliability of each part of the product at the time t is analyzed and calculated according to the fault data of each part of the product; converting the series connection relation and the parallel connection relation in the safety and reliability comprehensive model into a reliability mathematical model, and comprehensively obtaining the mathematical model of the safety and reliability comprehensive model; finally, calculating the system safety reliability, and comparing with the required system safety reliability;
the reliability mathematical model has a series connection relation and a parallel connection relation, and the mathematical model of the series connection relation is R t ＝R 1 ×R 2 ×......×R N The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The mathematical model of the parallel relation is R t ＝1-(1-R 1 )(1-R 2 )......(1-R N ) Wherein t is the required security service duration, R 1 、R 2 ......R N And S3, the reliability of each part of the safety reliability comprehensive model is obtained.
3. The method for analyzing the reliability of a rail transit product based on the safety consideration according to claim 2, wherein the analysis of the importance of the failure probability of the component in S5 is performed according to the following formula: i i c ＝(F i /F s )×dF s /dF i In the formula I i c F, for the failure probability importance degree of the ith part in the safety and reliability comprehensive model i F, for the failure probability of the ith part in the safety and reliability comprehensive model s The probability of failure is the system safety;
the calculation formula of the failure rate of the parallel model is F s ＝F 1 ×F 2 ×......×F N The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The calculation formula of the failure rate of the series model is F s ＝F 1 +F 2 +......+F N ；
Comparing the importance degree I of failure probability of each part i c And finding out parts with larger influence on the overall safety failure of the product.
4. The method for analyzing the reliability of the rail transit product based on the safety consideration according to claim 3, wherein the components with larger influence on the overall safety failure of the product obtained in the step S5 are combined, the corresponding components with higher quality level are selected in the step S6, and the safety reliability of the improved system is verified according to the safety reliability comprehensive model until the required safety reliability of the system is achieved.
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