CN116976948A - Method and system for generating dynamic feedback flow diagram of full value chain of manufacturing enterprise - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
技术领域Technical field
本发明属于制造型企业全价值链环节智能化管理的技术领域,具体涉及一种基于神经网络预测和库存水平控制的制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图生成方法及系统。The invention belongs to the technical field of intelligent management of the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises, and specifically relates to a method and system for generating a dynamic feedback flow diagram for the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises based on neural network prediction and inventory level control.
背景技术Background technique
随着互联网技术的快速发展和智能装备的广泛应用,以“数字化+智能化”为标志的新型供应链模式正在快速兴起,精益供应链是将供应链中的所有活动都视为制造企业生产活动的有机组成部分,通过规划统一信息和信息共享,在计划、运输、生产、存储、分销等环节协调并整合过程中的所有活动;在网络化销售时代,客户需求作为起点,供应链网络作为消费支撑,这样就使得网络模式下的供应链相比于传统的供应链更具有及时性与快速响应性。With the rapid development of Internet technology and the widespread application of smart equipment, a new supply chain model marked by "digitization + intelligence" is rapidly emerging. Lean supply chain treats all activities in the supply chain as manufacturing enterprise production activities. It is an organic part of the process, through planning unified information and information sharing, coordinating and integrating all activities in the process in planning, transportation, production, storage, distribution and other links; in the era of networked sales, customer demand is the starting point, and the supply chain network is the consumer Support, this makes the supply chain under the network model more timely and responsive than the traditional supply chain.
相较于传统供应链结构,网络供应链结构在整体中就存在着很多网络成员,需要对网络成员的服务意识进行改进,增进资源之间的协调关系;销售企业在供应链生产环境中能够依靠大数据对客户的行为进行预测,根据预测结果分析客户需求并进行相应的生产调配,供应商进行及时供货,在各价值链环节过程中,对供应、生产和销售能产生影响的因素进行数据采集,可用于对需求订单的预测;在整个供应链过程中做到各环节信息互通有无,可将个性化的服务贯穿于零部件生产、产品生产到销售的流通过程中,同时保证供应,生产和销售活动全流程安全平稳的运行。Compared with the traditional supply chain structure, the network supply chain structure has many network members as a whole. It is necessary to improve the service awareness of network members and enhance the coordination relationship between resources; sales companies can rely on them in the supply chain production environment. Big data predicts customer behavior, analyzes customer needs based on the prediction results and makes corresponding production deployments. Suppliers provide timely supplies. In each value chain process, the factors that can affect supply, production and sales are analyzed. Collection can be used to predict demand orders; in the entire supply chain process, information can be exchanged in all links, and personalized services can be provided throughout the circulation process from parts production, product production to sales, while ensuring supply. The entire process of production and sales activities runs safely and smoothly.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明的目的是提供一种制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图生成方法及系统,针对企业供应、生产、营销、产品回收、服务环节等所产生的一系列活动通过神经网络预测和库存水平调节来减弱因牛鞭效应对各环节企业库存水平波动的影响,不仅可以合理规划供应、生产时间和周期,提高供应链水平效率,减少原材料的冗余,同时实现库存优化,降低生产成本,也为企业的业务流程环节优化提供新的解决思路。The purpose of this invention is to provide a method and system for generating a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise, which predicts and inventory levels through neural networks for a series of activities generated by enterprise supply, production, marketing, product recycling, service links, etc. Adjustment to weaken the impact of bullwhip effect on inventory level fluctuations of enterprises in various links can not only reasonably plan supply and production time and cycle, improve supply chain level efficiency, reduce raw material redundancy, but also achieve inventory optimization and reduce production costs. Provide new solutions for the optimization of enterprise business process links.
为实现上述目的,本发明提供如下技术方案:In order to achieve the above objects, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
本发明提供了一种制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图生成方法,包括以下步骤:The invention provides a method for generating a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the full value chain of a manufacturing enterprise, which includes the following steps:
S1:从企业智能化系统的数据库中对增值数据进行采集,形成增值数据源,并进行数据存储;S1: Collect value-added data from the database of the enterprise's intelligent system, form a value-added data source, and store the data;
S2:对增值数据源进行数据信息提取,并对提取的数据信息进行数据预处理;S2: Extract data information from value-added data sources and perform data preprocessing on the extracted data information;
S3:将数据预处理后的数据信息进行定义,得到数据信息的抽象描述;S3: Define the data information after data preprocessing and obtain an abstract description of the data information;
S4:将抽象描述的数据信息配置在制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中,与制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中的相应指标相匹配,并进行数据关联,进而通过神经网络进行预测;S4: Configure the abstractly described data information in the dynamic feedback link of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain, match it with the corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain, perform data association, and then make predictions through neural networks;
S5:对增值数据源进行价值链映射生成制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图,并存储至数据库中。S5: Perform value chain mapping on value-added data sources to generate a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise, and store it in the database.
优选的,所述企业智能化系统包括:客户管理系统、营销服务管理系统、企业资源管理系统、仓储物流管理系统、企业财务管理系统、生产过程控制系统、生产过程执行管理系统、产品回收管理系统、产品售后服务系统、产品检测管理系统。Preferably, the enterprise intelligent system includes: customer management system, marketing service management system, enterprise resource management system, warehousing logistics management system, enterprise financial management system, production process control system, production process execution management system, and product recycling management system. , product after-sales service system, product testing management system.
优选的,对所述增值数据进行采集包括:通过数据采集设备从增值数据的各个管理系统中采集各种文本数据信息、客户行为信息、邮件信息、客户网页数据信息、通信数据信息、生产过程参数信息和产品检测信息。Preferably, collecting the value-added data includes: collecting various text data information, customer behavior information, email information, customer web page data information, communication data information, and production process parameters from various management systems of value-added data through data collection equipment. information and product testing information.
优选的,所述数据预处理包括:对所述增值数据源中的数据进行数据类型划分,并将划分的各个类型中的数据与增值数据源中的数据进行对比,找出缺失的数值,并删除异常的数值。Preferably, the data preprocessing includes: dividing the data in the value-added data source into data types, comparing the divided data in each type with the data in the value-added data source, finding missing values, and Delete abnormal values.
优选的,所述步骤S3中,将数据预处理后的数据信息进行定义,得到数据信息的抽象描述,包括:Preferably, in step S3, the data information after data preprocessing is defined to obtain an abstract description of the data information, including:
将数据预处理后的数据信息分别定义为:与供应相关的供应生产系统的基础数据,与生产相关的来自生产系统的基础数据,与营销相关的来自营销服务系统的基础数据,与回收服务相关的来自回收服务系统的基础数据;The data information after data preprocessing is defined as: basic data related to the supply production system, basic data related to production from the production system, basic data related to marketing from the marketing service system, and recycling services related Basic data from the recycling service system;
建立数据信息在多个系统中统一的可识别的规范化模式,对供应指标、生产指标、营销指标和回收服务指标以键值的形式进行保存,以“键”区分数据维度,“值”保存其取值,实现数据信息的抽象描述。Establish a unified and identifiable standardized model for data information in multiple systems, save supply indicators, production indicators, marketing indicators and recycling service indicators in the form of key values, use "keys" to distinguish data dimensions, and "values" to save them Get the value to realize the abstract description of the data information.
优选的,所述步骤S4中,制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中的相应指标,包括:与供应相关的供应指标、与生产相关的生产指标、与营销相关的营销指标和与回收相关的回收服务指标;Preferably, in step S4, the corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise include: supply indicators related to supply, production indicators related to production, marketing indicators related to marketing, and recycling related indicators. Recycling service indicators;
所述步骤S4中,将抽象描述的数据信息配置在制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中,与制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中的相应指标相匹配的方法包括:In step S4, the abstractly described data information is configured in the dynamic feedback link of the full value chain of the manufacturing enterprise. The method of matching the corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the full value chain of the manufacturing enterprise includes:
在数据库中建立数据管理体系,通过制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中相应指标在数据库中对抽象描述后的数据信息进行索引和存储,完成制造型企业全价值链动态反馈数据的获取;Establish a data management system in the database, index and store abstractly described data information in the database through corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain, and complete the acquisition of dynamic feedback data of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain;
所述步骤S4中,数据关联,包括:通过将客户基本操作行为与用户需求进行关联分析,然后关联增值数据源中的客户行为信息,进行构建关联特征数据集;In the step S4, the data association includes: performing correlation analysis on the customer's basic operating behavior and user needs, and then correlating the customer behavior information in the value-added data source to build a correlation feature data set;
所述步骤S4中,通过神经网络进行预测,包括:基于关联特征数据集,通过神经网络对潜在客户购买行为进行预测,在供应链阶段,基于零售商历史销售数据,制造商的发货历史数据和制造商的订单需求历史数据及在供应链中影响销售、发货或者订单需求数据的因素,综合考虑进行逆向预测订货生产和销售,同时结合供应链企业的库存调解率共同作为选择平衡变量,确定供应环节中的预期供应订单量,生产环节的预期生产量、销售环节的预期订货量。In the step S4, prediction is made through the neural network, including: predicting the purchasing behavior of potential customers through the neural network based on the associated feature data set. In the supply chain stage, based on the retailer's historical sales data and the manufacturer's shipment history data With the manufacturer's order demand historical data and the factors that affect sales, shipments or order demand data in the supply chain, we comprehensively consider the reverse forecast of order production and sales, and combine the inventory adjustment rate of the supply chain enterprise as a selection balancing variable. Determine the expected supply order volume in the supply link, the expected production volume in the production link, and the expected order quantity in the sales link.
优选的,通过神经网络对潜在客户购买行为进行预测,包括以下步骤:Preferably, predicting the purchasing behavior of potential customers through neural networks includes the following steps:
(1)客户操作数据预处理:通过对增值数据源进行数据域处理后,进而进行特征选择,将客户行为信息中的客户基本操作流程和不同操作行为与客户行为信息中的客户需求进行关联并分析,进而构建特征数据集,采用相关系数法选择出最优特征子集;(1) Customer operation data preprocessing: After performing data domain processing on the value-added data source, and then performing feature selection, the customer's basic operation process and different operation behaviors in the customer behavior information are associated with the customer needs in the customer behavior information. Analysis, then construct a feature data set, and use the correlation coefficient method to select the optimal feature subset;
(2)定义适宜度:采用LSTM神经网络的预测值的均方差作为粒子的适应值fit,其中:(2) Define fitness: Use the mean square error of the predicted value of the LSTM neural network as the fitness value fit of the particle, where:
; ;
其中,y为真实值,为期望输出值;Among them, y is the real value, is the expected output value;
(3)以粒子的位置信息作为LSTM神经网络的参数,并构建LSTM神经网络;(3) Use the position information of particles as parameters of the LSTM neural network and construct an LSTM neural network;
(4)训练LSTM神经网络:根据每个粒子的适应值,更新粒子的个体极值和群体极值;(4) Train the LSTM neural network: update the individual extreme value and group extreme value of the particle according to the fitness value of each particle;
(5)根据粒子的个体极值和群体极值采用非线性惯性权值迭代更新粒子的速度和位置信息;(5) Use nonlinear inertial weights to iteratively update the particle’s speed and position information based on the particle’s individual extreme value and group extreme value;
(6)当粒子的速度和位置信息满足条件或达到最大迭代数后,进入下一步,得到优化后的参数,否则返回步骤(3);(6) When the speed and position information of the particles meet the conditions or reach the maximum number of iterations, enter the next step to obtain the optimized parameters, otherwise return to step (3);
(7)得到优化后的参数后,提高迭代次数,重新训练LSTM神经网络,得到训练好的LSTM神经网络;(7) After obtaining the optimized parameters, increase the number of iterations, retrain the LSTM neural network, and obtain the trained LSTM neural network;
(8)基于最优特征子集,通过训练好的LSTM神经网络预测客户购买行为。(8) Based on the optimal feature subset, predict customer purchasing behavior through the trained LSTM neural network.
优选的,所述最优特征子集的选择方法为:Preferably, the selection method of the optimal feature subset is:
首先以皮尔逊系数作为特征子集的选择指标,选择参数a作为特征子集选择过程中的阈值,基于增值数据找出相关性绝对值小于参数a的特征对,在选出的特征对基础上分别比较这些特征对特征数据集的相关性,将相关性小的特征对剔除掉,获得新的特征子集;First, the Pearson coefficient is used as the selection index of the feature subset, and the parameter a is selected as the threshold in the feature subset selection process. Based on the value-added data, the feature pairs whose absolute value of correlation is less than the parameter a are found. Based on the selected feature pairs Compare the correlation of these features to the feature data set respectively, remove feature pairs with small correlations, and obtain a new feature subset;
采用评价函数对生成的特征子集进行评估,得到评估结果,通过特征子集评估的指标与评估结果作比较,如果特征子集评估的指标大于评估结果,则更新评估结果和最优特征子集,否则则停止算法,并输出当前的最优特征子集;The evaluation function is used to evaluate the generated feature subset to obtain the evaluation result. The index evaluated by the feature subset is compared with the evaluation result. If the index evaluated by the feature subset is greater than the evaluation result, the evaluation result and the optimal feature subset are updated. , otherwise, stop the algorithm and output the current optimal feature subset;
基于最优特征子集对LSTM神经网络模型参数进行优化;Optimize the LSTM neural network model parameters based on the optimal feature subset;
基于制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中的相应指标对客户在相同的时间间隔对不同产品的需求进行预测。Predict customer demand for different products at the same time interval based on corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises.
本发明还提供一种上述方法生成获得的制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图,所述制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图中包括:动态反馈流图可视化编辑器和配置页面,动态反馈流图变量类型与连线模型,数据库系统与实时界面。The present invention also provides a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise generated by the above method. The dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise includes: a dynamic feedback flow diagram visual editor and a configuration page, and a dynamic feedback flow diagram. Flow graph variable types and connection models, database systems and real-time interfaces.
本发明还提供一种制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图的数据共享集成管理方式平台,包括:The invention also provides a data sharing integrated management platform for dynamic feedback flow diagrams of the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises, including:
供应链企业业务协同服务平台、供应链企业业务协同平台服务器、制造企业A供应商群、供应商企业内部服务器、制造企业群、制造企业内部服务器、制造企业B经销商群和回收商群;Supply chain enterprise business collaboration service platform, supply chain enterprise business collaboration platform server, manufacturing enterprise A supplier group, supplier enterprise internal server, manufacturing enterprise group, manufacturing enterprise internal server, manufacturing enterprise B dealer group and recycler group;
所述供应链企业业务协同服务平台与供应链企业业务协同平台服务器通信连接;The supply chain enterprise business collaboration service platform is communicatively connected to the supply chain enterprise business collaboration platform server;
所述供应商企业内部服务器设于所述制造企业A供应商群内部;The internal server of the supplier enterprise is located within the supplier group of manufacturing enterprise A;
所述制造企业内部服务器设于所述制造企业群内部;The internal server of the manufacturing enterprise is located within the manufacturing enterprise group;
所述制造企业A供应商群可以访问回收商群,所述制造企业群可以访问制造商企业B经销商群和回收商群,所述回收商群和制造企业B经销商群只能从供应链企业业务协同服务平台进行业务数据的访问,且所有访问的请求都具有特定的访问权限。The manufacturing company A supplier group can access the recycler group, the manufacturing company group can access the manufacturer company B dealer group and the recycler group, the recycler group and the manufacturing company B dealer group can only access the supply chain The enterprise business collaboration service platform accesses business data, and all access requests have specific access rights.
本发明还提供一种制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图的分析方法,所述分析方法基于制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图,包括如下步骤:数据采集与分类,数据处理,数据查询与存储,数据可视化与分析;The invention also provides an analysis method for the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the full value chain of a manufacturing enterprise. The analysis method is based on the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the full value chain of a manufacturing enterprise and includes the following steps: data collection and classification, data processing, and data query. and storage, data visualization and analysis;
所述数据采集是指将从各个数据系统中获得直接的数据,统一接收并整合到增值数据源,并将不同类型的数据信息分别输入到一个统一的数据存储空间中;The data collection refers to obtaining direct data from various data systems, uniformly receiving and integrating it into value-added data sources, and inputting different types of data information into a unified data storage space;
所述数据处理是指对采集过程中获得的数据进行定义描述;The data processing refers to defining and describing the data obtained during the collection process;
所述数据查询和存储是指将数据处理后的数据存储在数据空间中并建立索引表结构;The data query and storage refers to storing the processed data in the data space and establishing an index table structure;
所述数据可视化与分析是指将动态反馈结果传输后的数据图形化并且进行展示,形成动态反馈价值链流图,之后将数据空间中的数据进行合理化的选择,形成供应链过程中的历史数据仓库,并且根据各环节系统中获得的直接数据和数据存储的历史数据,通过过程指标与数据对接与功能关联确定数据关联进行展示,之后用于历史数据的计算,用于分析整个价值链过程。The data visualization and analysis refers to graphicalizing and displaying the data after the dynamic feedback results are transmitted to form a dynamic feedback value chain flow diagram, and then rationally selecting the data in the data space to form historical data in the supply chain process. Warehouse, and based on the direct data obtained in each link system and the historical data stored in the data, the data association is determined and displayed through process indicators, data docking and functional association, and then used for calculation of historical data to analyze the entire value chain process.
经由上述的技术方案可知,与现有技术相比,本发明的技术效果为:It can be seen from the above technical solutions that compared with the existing technology, the technical effects of the present invention are:
本发明基于制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图通过将客户的操作行为和客户的需求建立数据关联,并通过训练LSTM神经网络,对潜在客户的购买意愿进行预测,根据预测结果作为制造商在下一周期的产货量和供应商在下一周期的订货量,对全价值链业务链业务环节中的动态数据变化的可视化,将供应商、制造商、经销商和回收商的库存水平、市场需求量等关键性的指标进行展示出来,实时的了解各个经营活动的运行情况,保持了供应链库存水平的管理;本发明的制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图通过选择重要的指标能够灵活的反映出供应、生产、营销服务、回收服务各环节的资源流动和价值方向,并对各业务环节的业务数据进行监控,通过终端将全价值链的动态反馈流图进行可视化展示。此时在任何时间都可利用动态反馈流图对价值链环节进行分析,定向的寻找问题所在,便于管理人员调整供应、生产、营销服务的策略。Based on the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise, this invention establishes data correlation between the customer's operational behavior and customer needs, and predicts the purchase intention of potential customers by training the LSTM neural network. Based on the prediction results, the manufacturer will The production volume in one cycle and the supplier's order volume in the next cycle visualize the dynamic data changes in the business links of the full value chain, and integrate the inventory levels and market demand of suppliers, manufacturers, dealers and recyclers. Key indicators such as quantity are displayed to understand the operation status of each business activity in real time and maintain the management of supply chain inventory levels; the dynamic feedback flow chart of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise of the present invention can flexibly select important indicators. It reflects the resource flow and value direction in each link of supply, production, marketing services, and recycling services, monitors the business data of each business link, and visually displays the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain through the terminal. At this time, the dynamic feedback flow diagram can be used to analyze the value chain links at any time, and find the problem in a targeted manner, so that managers can adjust the strategies of supply, production, and marketing services.
附图说明Description of the drawings
为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例或现有技术中的技术方案,下面将对实施例或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍,显而易见地,下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明的实施例,对于本领域普通技术人员来讲,在不付出创造性劳动的前提下,还可以根据提供的附图获得其他的附图。In order to explain the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art more clearly, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only These are embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without exerting creative efforts.
下面结合附图对本发明制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图生成方法作进一步说明;The method for generating a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise according to the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings;
图1是本发明制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图数据共享集成管理平台的结构示意图;Figure 1 is a schematic structural diagram of the dynamic feedback flow diagram data sharing integrated management platform for the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise according to the present invention;
图2为本发明制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图数据供应链分析方法流程图;Figure 2 is a flow chart of the supply chain analysis method of dynamic feedback flow chart data of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise according to the present invention;
图3为本发明制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图生成方法示意图;Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the method for generating a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise according to the present invention;
图4为本发明制造型企业全价值链动态反馈基于训练好的LSTM神经网络预测流程示意图;Figure 4 is a schematic diagram of the prediction process of dynamic feedback of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise based on the trained LSTM neural network according to the present invention;
图5为本发明制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图的因果关系图例;Figure 5 is an illustration of the cause and effect relationship of the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise of the present invention;
图6为本发明制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图的共享集成管理平台使用界面示意图。Figure 6 is a schematic diagram of the usage interface of the shared integrated management platform of the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合附图和实施例,对本发明的具体实施方式作进一步详细描述。以下实施例用于说明本发明,但不用来限制本发明的范围。Specific implementations of the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. The following examples are used to illustrate the invention but are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
图1为本发明的制造型企业动态反馈价值链数据共享集成管理方式,针对制造企业集群化联盟形式,企业可通过自身的内部数据库,经过数据交换程序与平台的数据库进行交互,进而与企业间业务协同服务平台进行数据的联通。Figure 1 shows the dynamic feedback value chain data sharing and integrated management method of the manufacturing enterprise of the present invention. For the clustered alliance form of manufacturing enterprises, the enterprise can interact with the database of the platform through its own internal database and through the data exchange program, and then interact with the enterprise. The business collaboration service platform connects data.
图2为本发明的制造型企业全价值链动态反馈数据供应链分析方法流程图,包括数据采集,数据查询与存储,数据可视化与分析。Figure 2 is a flow chart of the present invention's dynamic feedback data supply chain analysis method for the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise, including data collection, data query and storage, and data visualization and analysis.
如图3所示,本发明实施例公开了制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图生成方法,包括以下步骤:As shown in Figure 3, the embodiment of the present invention discloses a method for generating a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise, which includes the following steps:
S1:从企业智能化系统的数据库中对增值数据进行采集,形成增值数据源,并进行数据存储;S1: Collect value-added data from the database of the enterprise's intelligent system, form a value-added data source, and store the data;
S2:对增值数据源进行数据信息提取,并对提取的数据信息进行数据预处理;S2: Extract data information from value-added data sources and perform data preprocessing on the extracted data information;
S3:将数据预处理后的数据信息进行定义,得到数据信息的抽象描述;S3: Define the data information after data preprocessing and obtain an abstract description of the data information;
S4:将抽象描述的数据信息配置在制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中,与制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中的相应指标相匹配,并进行数据关联,进而通过神经网络进行预测;S4: Configure the abstractly described data information in the dynamic feedback link of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain, match it with the corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain, perform data association, and then make predictions through neural networks;
S5:对增值数据源进行价值链映射生成制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图,并存储至数据库中。S5: Perform value chain mapping on value-added data sources to generate a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise, and store it in the database.
其中,步骤S1中,所述企业智能化系统包括:客户管理系统、营销服务管理系统、企业资源管理系统、仓储物流管理系统、企业财务管理系统、生产过程控制系统、生产过程执行管理系统、产品回收管理系统、产品售后服务系统、产品检测管理系统。Among them, in step S1, the enterprise intelligent system includes: customer management system, marketing service management system, enterprise resource management system, warehousing logistics management system, enterprise financial management system, production process control system, production process execution management system, product Recycling management system, product after-sales service system, product testing management system.
对所述增值数据进行采集包括:通过数据采集设备从增值数据的各个管理系统中采集各种文本数据信息、客户行为信息、邮件信息、客户网页数据信息、通信数据信息、生产过程参数信息和产品检测信息。Collecting the value-added data includes: collecting various text data information, customer behavior information, email information, customer web page data information, communication data information, production process parameter information and products from various management systems of value-added data through data collection equipment. detection information.
数据预处理包括:对增值数据源中的数据进行数据类型划分,并将划分的各个类型中的数据与增值数据源中的数据进行对比,找出缺失的数值,并删除异常的数值。Data preprocessing includes: dividing the data in the value-added data source into data types, comparing the data in each divided type with the data in the value-added data source, finding missing values, and deleting abnormal values.
所述步骤S3中,将数据预处理后的数据信息进行定义,得到数据信息的抽象描述,包括:In step S3, the data information after data preprocessing is defined to obtain an abstract description of the data information, including:
将数据预处理后的数据信息分别定义为:与供应相关的供应生产系统的基础数据,与生产相关的来自生产系统的基础数据,与营销相关的来自营销服务系统的基础数据,与回收服务相关的来自回收服务系统的基础数据;The data information after data preprocessing is defined as: basic data related to the supply production system, basic data related to production from the production system, basic data related to marketing from the marketing service system, and recycling services related Basic data from the recycling service system;
建立数据信息在多个系统中统一的可识别的规范化模式,对供应指标、生产指标、营销指标和回收服务指标以键值的形式进行保存,以“键”区分数据维度,“值”保存其取值,实现数据信息的抽象描述。Establish a unified and identifiable standardized model for data information in multiple systems, save supply indicators, production indicators, marketing indicators and recycling service indicators in the form of key values, use "keys" to distinguish data dimensions, and "values" to save them Get the value to realize the abstract description of the data information.
为了达到上述技术方案,本发明中所述的数据采集是从系统外部采集数据并输入到系统内部的一个接口,数据采集系统整合了信号、传感器、激励器、数据采集设备和应用软件;在网络协同制造平台将数据从各个数据系统中获得直接的数据,同一整合到用用众多信息的增值数据源存储介质中;数据源最初从网络运营前端页面,生产工厂,财务报账,供应回收中的各种系统和模块中获得:In order to achieve the above technical solution, the data collection described in the present invention is an interface that collects data from outside the system and inputs it into the system. The data collection system integrates signals, sensors, actuators, data collection equipment and application software; in the network The collaborative manufacturing platform obtains direct data from various data systems and integrates it into a value-added data source storage medium that uses a large number of information; the data source initially comes from various aspects of the network operation front-end page, production plants, financial statements, and supply recovery. Available in various systems and modules:
从这些系统中获得的数据统一接收并整合到本发明系统的数据源当中,数据源用于驱动信息数据的可视化显示;对于标准化系统都会提供内建的增值数据源和事件目标源,可以直接适配从中获取设定时间段内的数据。对于非标准化的系统,则需要依照规范的形式进行支持扩充。The data obtained from these systems are uniformly received and integrated into the data sources of the system of the present invention. The data sources are used to drive the visual display of information data; standardized systems will provide built-in value-added data sources and event target sources, which can be directly adapted Use it to obtain data within a set time period. For non-standardized systems, support expansion needs to be carried out in the form of specifications.
数据源的存储需要有明确的标识设置;标识包括供货能力、销售属性、物料生产周期、设备利用率、标准生产节拍、设备换型时间、人员、轮班工作时间、设备名称和编号、客户基本信息、配送状况、产品市场销售数量、市场销售波动、客户购买力、产品打折敏感度、配送时长忍耐度;供货能力代表供应商企业原材料生产加工的产出效率;销售属性是指商品供消费者选择的选项和维度,比如产品的颜色,套餐和尺寸等设置;The storage of data sources requires clear identification settings; identification includes supply capacity, sales attributes, material production cycle, equipment utilization, standard production cycle, equipment change time, personnel, shift working time, equipment name and number, customer base Information, distribution status, product market sales quantity, market sales fluctuation, customer purchasing power, product discount sensitivity, delivery time tolerance; supply capacity represents the output efficiency of raw material production and processing of the supplier company; sales attributes refer to the supply of goods to consumers Selected options and dimensions, such as product color, package and size settings;
物料生产周期是指生产每种物料所消耗的时间;设备利用率是指设备的使用时间与理论生产时间的比值;标准生产节拍是指理论上的产品加工生产的速率;设备换型时间是指设备从生产一种零部件切换到生产其他零部件时设备本身所需要消耗的时间;Material production cycle refers to the time consumed in producing each material; equipment utilization refers to the ratio of equipment usage time to theoretical production time; standard production cycle refers to the theoretical product processing and production rate; equipment changeover time refers to The time it takes for the equipment to switch from producing one component to producing other components;
人员是指在一个周期值班中实际可参与工作的人员数量;轮班工作时间是指企业规定的一个工厂周期的生产时间,即相邻两次换班的间隔,按生产线普遍的做法一般为8小时至12小时之间,均可以根据实际情况进行安排;Personnel refers to the number of people who can actually participate in the work during a cycle of duty; shift working time refers to the production time of a factory cycle specified by the enterprise, that is, the interval between two adjacent shifts. According to the common practice on the production line, it is generally 8 hours to Within 12 hours, arrangements can be made according to actual conditions;
设备名称和编号是指设备的标示性信息;客户基本信息包括客户的住址,姓名、年龄或者性别等基本信息的记录;配送状况是指产品的时间地点等配送信息;Equipment name and number refer to the identifying information of the equipment; basic customer information includes records of basic information such as the customer's address, name, age or gender; delivery status refers to delivery information such as the time and location of the product;
产品市场销售数量是指产品网络营销和线下营销的总数量;市场销售波动是指一段时期内受到自然因素或者其他客观因素等对产品销售产生的影响;顾客购买力是指顾客能接受的购买价格;Product market sales quantity refers to the total quantity of product online marketing and offline marketing; market sales fluctuation refers to the impact of natural factors or other objective factors on product sales within a period of time; customer purchasing power refers to the purchase price that customers can accept. ;
产品打折敏感度是指企业商品打折力度对顾客吸引力的大小;配送时长忍耐度是指商品送达顾客手中时效的接受程度;Product discount sensitivity refers to the attractiveness of a company's product discounts to customers; delivery time tolerance refers to the acceptance of the timeliness of goods being delivered to customers;
所述的数据处理,将采集到的数据从数据源中获取之后对其进行定义,将数据进行清洗等操作,保持数据的标准化格式;The described data processing involves defining the collected data after obtaining it from the data source, cleaning the data and other operations to maintain the standardized format of the data;
最后进行数据源的抽象,起初指定与供应相关的供应生产系统的基础数据,与生产相关的来自生产系统的基础数据,与营销服务相关的来自营销服务系统的基础数据,与回收服务相关的来自回收服务系统的基础数据。Finally, the data sources are abstracted. Initially, the basic data related to supply and production system are specified, the basic data related to production are from the production system, the basic data related to marketing services are from the marketing service system, and the basic data related to recycling services are from Basic data of recycling service system.
通过建立数据规范和标准,对供应指标,生产指标,营销服务指标,回收服务指标等进行描述,将数据源配置在制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图中;利用这些数据源实现数据驱动的实时动态反馈流图分析方案。所述数据查询和存储是指将数据存储在数据存储介质中作为历史数据用于时间尺度上的动态反馈过程的留存;By establishing data specifications and standards, we describe supply indicators, production indicators, marketing service indicators, recycling service indicators, etc., and configure the data sources in the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the full value chain of manufacturing enterprises; use these data sources to implement data-driven Real-time dynamic feedback flow graph analysis solution. The data query and storage refers to storing data in a data storage medium as historical data for the retention of dynamic feedback processes on a time scale;
所述数据查询是指建立索引表,将处理后的数据存储在数据介质中。所述数据可视化和分析是指将初始数据进行图表等形式的可视化,然后将动态反馈结果传输后的数据图形化进行同窗口比较可视化展示,实时的动态分析各环节指标参数的变化,形成全价值链环节的动态反馈流图。The data query refers to establishing an index table and storing the processed data in the data medium. The data visualization and analysis refers to visualizing the initial data in the form of charts and other forms, and then graphically displaying the data after the dynamic feedback results are transmitted in the same window, and dynamically analyzing the changes in indicator parameters in each link in real time to form full value. Dynamic feedback flow diagram of chain links.
如图5和如图6所示,为了优化上述技术方案,本发明中与供应相关的供应生产系统所述的基础数据包括:采购(询价,合同,下单,招投标)、供应商经营范围、原材料基础信息、存货类型、供货能力、销售属性、直接运输成本、间接运输成本、质量数据文件、服务水平;与生产相关的来自生产系统所述的基础数据包括:设备的选型、开始、运行、停机时间以及人员人数、效率、设施、设备、工具、物料、易耗品、直接运营成本,间接运营成本、生产设备的产出、工艺条件和质量检测数据文件。As shown in Figure 5 and Figure 6, in order to optimize the above technical solution, the basic data related to the supply production system in the present invention include: procurement (inquiry, contract, order, bidding), supplier management Scope, basic information on raw materials, inventory type, supply capacity, sales attributes, direct transportation costs, indirect transportation costs, quality data files, service levels; basic data related to production from the production system include: equipment selection, Start-up, operation, downtime and number of personnel, efficiency, facilities, equipment, tools, materials, consumables, direct operating costs, indirect operating costs, output of production equipment, process conditions and quality inspection data files.
与营销服务相关的来自营销服务系统所述的基础数据包括市场销售折扣、库存、销量、市场波动、产品价格预测、配送、产品性能、客户基本信息、购物行为、网页产品浏览、商品评价敏感度、客户购买力、产品促销敏感度、送货效率接收度。Basic data related to marketing services from the marketing service system include market sales discounts, inventory, sales volume, market fluctuations, product price forecasts, distribution, product performance, basic customer information, shopping behavior, web product browsing, product evaluation sensitivity , customer purchasing power, product promotion sensitivity, delivery efficiency acceptance.
与回收服务相关的来自回收服务系统所述的基础数据包括:市场回收水平、产品使用耐久度、产品可再制造技术水平、回收产品所需金属含量比、库存、产品检测维修、拆解、产品回收种类、数量、回收成本、运营成本、企业营业资质。Basic data related to recycling services from the recycling service system include: market recycling level, product durability, product remanufacturing technology level, metal content ratio required for recycled products, inventory, product testing and repair, dismantling, products Recycling types, quantities, recycling costs, operating costs, and business qualifications of enterprises.
所述抽象是指建立数据在多个系统中统一的可识别的规范化模式,对供应指标,生产指标,营销服务和回收指标以键值的形式进行保存,以“键”区分数据维度,“值”保存其取值。The abstraction refers to establishing a unified identifiable standardized model of data in multiple systems, saving supply indicators, production indicators, marketing services and recycling indicators in the form of key values, using "keys" to distinguish data dimensions, and "values". "Save its value.
供应指标包括库存水平、预期生产数量、产品生产订单、零部件生产率、供货能力。Supply indicators include inventory levels, expected production quantities, product production orders, parts productivity, and supply capabilities.
生产指标包括生产数量、库存数量、延期交付、产品销售率预测、产品发货率、预期生产率、实际生产能力、产品合格率。营销服务指标包括品牌推广、合作兼容程度、资产与负债情况、营销能力、产品服务、客户服务、信誉与荣誉、社会责任感。Production indicators include production quantity, inventory quantity, delayed delivery, product sales rate forecast, product shipment rate, expected production rate, actual production capacity, and product qualification rate. Marketing service indicators include brand promotion, cooperation compatibility, assets and liabilities, marketing capabilities, product services, customer service, credibility and honor, and social responsibility.
客户对产品的操作流程包括:浏览产品、收藏产品、产品加入购物车、提交订单、支付订单。通过将客户基本操作行为与客户需求进行关联分析,然后关联增值数据源中的客户行为的数据,进行构建关联特征数据集;The customer's product operation process includes: browsing products, collecting products, adding products to the shopping cart, submitting orders, and paying orders. By correlating the customer's basic operational behavior with customer needs, and then correlating the customer behavior data in the value-added data source, a correlated feature data set is constructed;
最后通过LSTM神经网络对潜在客户购买行为进行预测;在供应链阶段,基于零售商历史销售数据,制造商的发货历史数据和制造商的订单需求历史数据及在供应链中影响销售,发货或者订单需求数据的其他因素,综合考虑进行逆向预测订货生产和销售,同时结合供应链企业的库存调解率共同作为选择平衡变量,确定供应环节中的预期供应订单量,生产环节的预期生产量,销售环节的预期订货量;Finally, the purchasing behavior of potential customers is predicted through the LSTM neural network; in the supply chain stage, based on the retailer's historical sales data, the manufacturer's shipment history data and the manufacturer's order demand history data, it affects sales and shipments in the supply chain. Or other factors of order demand data, comprehensively consider reverse forecasting order production and sales, and combine the inventory adjustment rate of supply chain enterprises as a selection balancing variable to determine the expected supply order volume in the supply link and the expected production volume in the production link. The expected order quantity in the sales process;
当需要分析生产过程中市场客户的需求变化在时间因素上的影响时,从数据仓库中调用客户关联特征数据集;提炼与供应,生产,销售,产品回收等指标最相关数据的数学模型用于对价值链中各环节的库存水平进行分析和预测,从而指导供应链环节的平稳运行。When it is necessary to analyze the impact of market customer demand changes on time factors during the production process, the customer-related feature data set is called from the data warehouse; the mathematical model used to extract the most relevant data with supply, production, sales, product recycling and other indicators is used Analyze and predict the inventory levels of each link in the value chain to guide the smooth operation of the supply chain.
所述步骤S4中,制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中的相应指标,包括:与供应相关的供应指标、与生产相关的生产指标、与营销相关的营销指标和与回收相关的回收服务指标;In step S4, the corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise include: supply indicators related to supply, production indicators related to production, marketing indicators related to marketing, and recycling service indicators related to recycling. ;
所述步骤S4中,将抽象描述的数据信息配置在制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中,与制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中的相应指标相匹配的方法包括:In step S4, the abstractly described data information is configured in the dynamic feedback link of the full value chain of the manufacturing enterprise. The method of matching the corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the full value chain of the manufacturing enterprise includes:
在数据库中建立数据管理体系,通过制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中相应指标在数据库中对抽象描述后的数据信息进行索引和存储,完成制造型企业全价值链动态反馈数据的获取;Establish a data management system in the database, index and store abstractly described data information in the database through corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain, and complete the acquisition of dynamic feedback data of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain;
所述步骤S4中,数据关联,包括:通过将客户基本操作行为与用户需求进行关联分析,然后关联增值数据源中的客户行为信息,进行构建关联特征数据集;In the step S4, the data association includes: performing correlation analysis on the customer's basic operating behavior and user needs, and then correlating the customer behavior information in the value-added data source to build a correlation feature data set;
所述步骤S4中,通过神经网络进行预测,包括:基于关联特征数据集,通过神经网络对潜在客户购买行为进行预测,在供应链阶段,基于零售商历史销售数据,制造商的发货历史数据和制造商的订单需求历史数据及在供应链中影响销售、发货或者订单需求数据的因素,综合考虑进行逆向预测订货生产和销售,同时结合供应链企业的库存调解率共同作为选择平衡变量,确定供应环节中的预期供应订单量,生产环节的预期生产量、销售环节的预期订货量。In the step S4, prediction is made through the neural network, including: predicting the purchasing behavior of potential customers through the neural network based on the associated feature data set. In the supply chain stage, based on the retailer's historical sales data and the manufacturer's shipment history data With the manufacturer's order demand historical data and the factors that affect sales, shipments or order demand data in the supply chain, we comprehensively consider the reverse forecast of order production and sales, and combine the inventory adjustment rate of the supply chain enterprise as a selection balancing variable. Determine the expected supply order volume in the supply link, the expected production volume in the production link, and the expected order quantity in the sales link.
步骤4中,匹配方法是指建立数据管理体系,根据数据库,利用数据库建立数据存储和索引,完成制造型企业全价值链动态反馈数据的获取。在营销服务终端客户对产品的操作流程包括:浏览产品、收藏产品、产品加入购物车、提交订单、支付订单。通过将客户基本操作行为与用户需求进行关联分析,然后关联增值数据源中的客户行为的数据,进行构建关联特征数据集。最后通过神经网络对潜在客户购买行为进行预测。In step 4, the matching method refers to establishing a data management system, using the database to establish data storage and indexing, and completing the acquisition of dynamic feedback data for the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises. The customer's product operation process at the marketing service terminal includes: browsing products, collecting products, adding products to the shopping cart, submitting orders, and paying orders. By correlating the customer's basic operational behavior with user needs, and then correlating the customer behavior data in the value-added data source, a correlated feature data set is constructed. Finally, the purchasing behavior of potential customers is predicted through neural network.
如图2所示,进一步优化上述技术方案,所述基于训练好的LSTM神经网络对客户操作行为和经销商预期订货量,制造商预期生产率,供应商供应订单预测的分析流程步骤包括:As shown in Figure 2, to further optimize the above technical solution, the steps of the analysis process based on the trained LSTM neural network for customer operating behavior and dealer expected order quantity, manufacturer expected productivity, and supplier supply order prediction include:
步骤一:数据获取;与预测相关的主要是产品属性信息和一些客户行为数据;产品属性信息包括:销售日期,产品品牌,销售季节,所属分类,价格,原价,产品拥有数量,销售天数等;客户的操作行为主要分为五种:浏览产品,收藏产品,产品加入购物车,提交订单,支付订单。其中收藏操作对需求预测来说是一个比较重要的特征,一般与最终产品的需求量有很强的相关性;这些操作行为都会被记录在数字持久化设备中,形成完整的客户操作行为数据集,可以用于对不同产品需求的预测;客户的操作数据可以记录对产品的点击和浏览数目,收藏次数,加入购物车的次数,分享次数,产品销售量。Step 1: Data acquisition; related to prediction is mainly product attribute information and some customer behavior data; product attribute information includes: sales date, product brand, sales season, category, price, original price, product quantity, sales days, etc.; There are five main types of customer operations: browsing products, collecting products, adding products to shopping carts, submitting orders, and paying orders. Among them, collection operations are an important feature for demand forecasting and are generally highly correlated with the demand for final products; these operations will be recorded in digital persistence devices to form a complete customer operation behavior data set. , can be used to predict the demand for different products; customer operation data can record the number of clicks and views on the product, the number of collections, the number of times added to the shopping cart, the number of shares, and product sales.
步骤二:特征选择;对客户的基本操作流程和流程中不同操作行为与客户需求之间的联系进行分析,即需求相关的主要特征是客户执行的操作,然后通过数据集对客户行为数据分析,得到客户不同的操作行为与客户需求之间的转化关系;Step 2: Feature selection; analyze the customer's basic operating process and the connection between different operating behaviors in the process and customer needs, that is, the main features related to the needs are the operations performed by the customer, and then analyze the customer behavior data through the data set, Obtain the transformation relationship between customers' different operating behaviors and customer needs;
例转化率为产品销售的数目/每种操作的执行次数,通过对转化率的分析可以得出简单的需求与客户操作行为之间的线性关系,并且推断出这些客户操作行为是否是影响需求的重要特征,即可完成这类基本的特征选择过程。For example, the conversion rate is the number of product sales/the number of executions of each operation. By analyzing the conversion rate, we can derive a simple linear relationship between demand and customer operation behavior, and infer whether these customer operation behaviors affect demand. Important features can complete this basic feature selection process.
步骤三:数据处理;原始数据中存在着很多缺失值和不合理的数据,因此需要对数据集进行清洗,降噪等操作。对数据存在缺失值现象来说,可以采用补零或者取相邻时段均值的方式来保证数据的连续性,同时避免大量数据样本出现不可使用的情况。对于不合理的数据,比如恶意刷单导致销售量很高但是客户的点击量,加入购物车,收藏量很少;或者是数据类型不匹配和数据值超出正常的预期范围。对这些现象采用数据剔除的方式。Step 3: Data processing; there are many missing values and unreasonable data in the original data, so the data set needs to be cleaned, denoised and other operations. For data with missing values, zero padding or averaging of adjacent periods can be used to ensure the continuity of the data and avoid the situation where a large number of data samples become unusable. For unreasonable data, for example, malicious brushing leads to high sales but few customer clicks, shopping carts, and collections; or the data type does not match and the data value exceeds the normal expected range. Data elimination is used to deal with these phenomena.
步骤四:构建关联特征;选择最优特征子集的目的是为了剔除掉与预测目标无关的冗余特征,降低数据集的维度,提升模型训练效率的目的;在原始数据集的特征基础上采用相关方法构造更多的关联特征。Step 4: Construct associated features; the purpose of selecting the optimal feature subset is to eliminate redundant features that are irrelevant to the prediction target, reduce the dimension of the data set, and improve the efficiency of model training; based on the features of the original data set, use Correlation methods construct more correlation features.
例如对原始数据集的原始特征进行组合或者采用统计方法,构建出有价值的新特征:比如购买操作可以反映产品的销量,可以分别统计产品销量的最大值,最小值以及标准差,可以客观的反映销售情况和离散程度;可以采用滑动窗口的方式,对每种产品可以计算在其之前的1、3、5、7、14天的时间范围内的相关特征,通过改变窗口长度和滑动步长可以获得不同时间范围内的新特征。之后选择最优特征子集,但在寻找最优子集前要对数据进行归一化。因为归一化可以解决不同特征之间的取值范围差异,使各个特征处于同一数量级,适合进行综合对比评价;但是归一化的最大好处就是可以使得最优解寻优的过程明显变得平缓,更容易收敛得到最优解;在进行归一化处理之后,可以计算不同特征之间以及不同特征与目标变量之间的相关性进行分析,可以对不同特征之间的相关性进行分析,能够剔除冗余特征。方法是可以采用皮尔逊相关系数法,为后续的模型训练做准备。For example, combining the original features of the original data set or using statistical methods to construct valuable new features: for example, the purchase operation can reflect the sales volume of the product, and the maximum value, minimum value and standard deviation of the product sales volume can be counted separately, which can be objective Reflect the sales situation and degree of dispersion; the sliding window method can be used. For each product, the relevant characteristics can be calculated within the time range of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 14 days before it, by changing the window length and sliding step size. New features can be obtained in different time frames. The optimal feature subset is then selected, but the data is normalized before finding the optimal subset. Because normalization can solve the difference in value range between different features, so that each feature is of the same order of magnitude, it is suitable for comprehensive comparative evaluation; but the biggest benefit of normalization is that it can make the process of finding the optimal solution significantly smoother. , it is easier to converge to obtain the optimal solution; after normalization processing, the correlation between different features and between different features and the target variable can be calculated and analyzed, and the correlation between different features can be analyzed. Eliminate redundant features. The method is to use the Pearson correlation coefficient method to prepare for subsequent model training.
步骤五:选择基于LSTM的需求预测模型,并且采用改进的粒子群算法对网络的参数进行优化。Step 5: Select a demand forecast model based on LSTM, and use the improved particle swarm algorithm to optimize network parameters.
步骤六:模型预测。采用选择的评价指标对时间间隔相同的不同产品的需求进行预测。Step 6: Model prediction. The selected evaluation indicators are used to predict the demand for different products with the same time interval.
在价值链过程预测环节中,零售端的销售量预测结合网络平台历史销售数据和关注发展潜在客户的点击率,浏览率,成交率等数据进行预测,最终得到零售商的销售量预测量;企业根据销售量的预测制定期望库存的上限,并且设定期限,期望库和实际库存之间差额和预测数量进行比较补货,确定最大的数量为下一期的订货量,向供应链的上一级进行预订货。In the forecasting process of the value chain, the sales volume forecast at the retail end is combined with the historical sales data of the network platform and the click rate, browsing rate, transaction rate and other data of potential customers to predict, and finally obtain the sales volume forecast of the retailer; the enterprise based on Forecast the sales volume and set the upper limit of the expected inventory, and set the deadline. The difference between the expected inventory and the actual inventory is compared with the predicted quantity for replenishment, and the maximum quantity is determined as the order quantity for the next period, and is reported to the upper level of the supply chain. Make a pre-order.
制造商的销售量预测结合发货量的历史数据进行预测,通过预测出来的数据并设定库存持续周期得到期望库存的数值,期望库存和实际库存之间的差额和预期库存之间作比较,取最大值作为预期生产的产品数量;The manufacturer's sales forecast is combined with the historical data of shipments. The expected inventory value is obtained by using the predicted data and setting the inventory duration period. The difference between the expected inventory and the actual inventory is compared with the expected inventory. The maximum value is the quantity of product expected to be produced;
供应商的销售量预测结合制造商的历史生产订购数据进行预测,通过预测出来的数据并设定库存持续周期得到期望库存的数值,期望库存和实际库存之间的差额和预期库存之间作比较,取最大值作为供应商预期供应的零部件数量;The supplier's sales forecast is combined with the manufacturer's historical production and ordering data. The expected inventory value is obtained through the predicted data and the inventory duration period is set. The difference between the expected inventory and the actual inventory is compared with the expected inventory. Take the maximum value as the quantity of parts expected to be supplied by the supplier;
回收商的回收包括零部件回收和产品回收两部分;根据销售市场的销售率和回收产品的行情变化,设定不同周期下的产品回收比例,将得到的回收产品补充到企业的库存中,进行再生产利用;Recycling by recyclers includes parts recycling and product recycling. According to the sales rate of the sales market and the market changes of recycled products, the product recycling proportions in different cycles are set, and the recycled products are added to the company's inventory for further processing. Reproduction and utilization;
营销服务部分从服务利润链转向服务价值链,它的主要功能是从员工满意度,企业内部质量,顾客满意度的方面来促进对客户的服务,发展潜在客户,将潜在客户转化为正式购买产品的顾客,从而带动零售商的产品销售,企业的产品生产,供应商的零部件的供应。The marketing service part shifts from the service profit chain to the service value chain. Its main function is to promote customer service from the aspects of employee satisfaction, internal corporate quality, and customer satisfaction, develop potential customers, and convert potential customers into formal purchases of products. customers, thus driving product sales by retailers, product production by enterprises, and supply of parts by suppliers.
如图4所示,通过神经网络对潜在客户购买行为进行预测,包括以下步骤:As shown in Figure 4, predicting the purchasing behavior of potential customers through neural networks includes the following steps:
(1)客户操作数据预处理:通过对增值数据源进行数据域处理后,进而进行特征选择,将客户行为信息中的客户基本操作流程和不同操作行为与客户行为信息中的客户需求进行关联并分析,进而构建特征数据集,采用相关系数法选择出最优特征子集;(1) Customer operation data preprocessing: After performing data domain processing on the value-added data source, and then performing feature selection, the customer's basic operation process and different operation behaviors in the customer behavior information are associated with the customer needs in the customer behavior information. Analysis, then construct a feature data set, and use the correlation coefficient method to select the optimal feature subset;
(2)定义适宜度:采用LSTM神经网络的预测值的均方差作为粒子的适应值fit,其中:(2) Define fitness: Use the mean square error of the predicted value of the LSTM neural network as the fitness value fit of the particle, where:
; ;
其中,y为真实值,为期望输出值;Among them, y is the real value, is the expected output value;
(3)以粒子的位置信息作为LSTM神经网络的参数,并构建LSTM神经网络;(3) Use the position information of particles as parameters of the LSTM neural network and construct an LSTM neural network;
(4)训练LSTM神经网络:根据每个粒子的适应值,更新粒子的个体极值和群体极值;(4) Train the LSTM neural network: update the individual extreme value and group extreme value of the particle according to the fitness value of each particle;
(5)根据粒子的个体极值和群体极值采用非线性惯性权值迭代更新粒子的速度和位置信息;(5) Use nonlinear inertial weights to iteratively update the particle’s speed and position information based on the particle’s individual extreme value and group extreme value;
(6)当粒子的速度和位置信息满足条件或达到最大迭代数后,进入下一步,得到优化后的参数,否则返回步骤(3);(6) When the speed and position information of the particles meet the conditions or reach the maximum number of iterations, enter the next step to obtain the optimized parameters, otherwise return to step (3);
(7)得到优化后的参数后,提高迭代次数,重新训练LSTM神经网络,得到训练好的LSTM神经网络;(7) After obtaining the optimized parameters, increase the number of iterations, retrain the LSTM neural network, and obtain the trained LSTM neural network;
(8)基于最优特征子集,通过训练好的LSTM神经网络预测客户购买行为。(8) Based on the optimal feature subset, predict customer purchasing behavior through the trained LSTM neural network.
具体的,所述最优特征子集的选择方法为:Specifically, the selection method of the optimal feature subset is:
首先以皮尔逊系数作为特征子集的选择指标,选择参数a作为特征子集选择过程中的阈值,基于增值数据找出相关性绝对值小于参数a的特征对,在选出的特征对基础上分别比较这些特征对特征数据集的相关性,将相关性小的特征对剔除掉,获得新的特征子集;First, the Pearson coefficient is used as the selection index of the feature subset, and the parameter a is selected as the threshold in the feature subset selection process. Based on the value-added data, the feature pairs whose absolute value of correlation is less than the parameter a are found. Based on the selected feature pairs Compare the correlation of these features to the feature data set respectively, remove feature pairs with small correlations, and obtain a new feature subset;
采用评价函数对生成的特征子集进行评估,得到评估结果,通过特征子集评估的指标与评估结果作比较,如果特征子集评估的指标大于评估结果,则更新评估结果和最优特征子集,否则则停止算法,并输出当前的最优特征子集;The evaluation function is used to evaluate the generated feature subset to obtain the evaluation result. The index evaluated by the feature subset is compared with the evaluation result. If the index evaluated by the feature subset is greater than the evaluation result, the evaluation result and the optimal feature subset are updated. , otherwise, stop the algorithm and output the current optimal feature subset;
基于最优特征子集对LSTM神经网络模型参数进行优化;Optimize the LSTM neural network model parameters based on the optimal feature subset;
基于制造型企业全价值链动态反馈环节中的相应指标对客户在相同的时间间隔对不同产品的需求进行预测。Predict customer demand for different products at the same time interval based on corresponding indicators in the dynamic feedback link of the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises.
所述LSTM神经网络预测环节中还包括:制造商、供应商;The LSTM neural network prediction link also includes: manufacturers and suppliers;
通过训练好的LSTM神经网络预测制造商的预期生产的产品数量:通过制造商的销售量,结合制造商的发货量的历史数据通过LSTM神经网络预测,通过预测出来的数据并设定库存持续周期,得到期望库存的数量,对期望库存的数量和实际库存的数量之间的差额,与预期库存的数量之间作比较,取最大值作为制造商的预期生产的产品数量;Predict the manufacturer's expected product quantity through the trained LSTM neural network: predict through the manufacturer's sales volume, combined with the historical data of the manufacturer's shipment volume, through the LSTM neural network, use the predicted data and set the inventory duration Period, obtain the expected inventory quantity, compare the difference between the expected inventory quantity and the actual inventory quantity, and the expected inventory quantity, and take the maximum value as the manufacturer's expected product quantity;
通过训练好的LSTM神经网络预测供应商预期供应的数量:所述供应商的销售链结合制造商的历史生产订购数据通过LSTM神经网络预测,通过预测出来的数据并设定库存持续周期得到期望库存数量,对期望库存的数量和实际库存的数量之间的差额,与预期库存的数量之间作比较,取最大值作为供应商预期供应的数量。Predict the supplier's expected supply quantity through the trained LSTM neural network: the supplier's sales chain is combined with the manufacturer's historical production and order data to predict through the LSTM neural network, and the expected inventory is obtained through the predicted data and setting the inventory duration period Quantity, the difference between the expected inventory quantity and the actual inventory quantity is compared with the expected inventory quantity, and the maximum value is taken as the quantity expected to be supplied by the supplier.
本发明还提供的了一种通过上述方法生成制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图,所述制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图中包括:动态反馈流图可视化编辑器和配置页面,动态反馈流图变量类型与连线模型,数据库系统与实时界面。The present invention also provides a method for generating a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise through the above method. The dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise includes: a dynamic feedback flow diagram visual editor and a configuration page. Feedback flow graph variable types and connection models, database systems and real-time interfaces.
所述制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图可视化编辑器和配置页面用于专业分析人员对全价值链动态反馈的元素指标,页面布局,连线模式,图标样式,可视化参数显示进行自定义。所述全价值链动态反馈流图数据结合实际供应、生产、营销服务,回收服务环节的动态反馈输出的数据,将实际环节中的数据与事件指标进行关联,将相应过程与全价值链动态反馈流图的功能进行绑定。所述全价值链动态反馈实时界面用于在实时界面上显示指标的动态变化情况,支持对数据进行操作和关联性分析。The visual editor and configuration page of the manufacturing enterprise's full value chain dynamic feedback flow diagram are used by professional analysts to customize the element indicators, page layout, connection mode, icon style, and visual parameter display of the full value chain dynamic feedback. The dynamic feedback flow diagram data of the whole value chain is combined with the data of the dynamic feedback output of the actual supply, production, marketing services and recycling service links, associates the data in the actual links with event indicators, and links the corresponding processes with the dynamic feedback of the whole value chain. Flow graph functions are bound. The full value chain dynamic feedback real-time interface is used to display the dynamic changes of indicators on the real-time interface, and supports the operation and correlation analysis of data.
本发明还提供了一种通过上述方法生成获得的制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图分析方法,所述方法基于制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图,包括如下步骤:数据采集与分类,数据处理,数据查询与存储,数据可视化与分析。The present invention also provides a method for analyzing the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the full value chain of a manufacturing enterprise generated by the above method. The method is based on the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the full value chain of a manufacturing enterprise and includes the following steps: data collection and classification, Data processing, data query and storage, data visualization and analysis.
所述数据采集是指将从各个数据系统中获得直接的数据,统一接收并整合到增值数据源,并将不同类型的数据信息分别输入到一个统一的数据存储空间中;The data collection refers to obtaining direct data from various data systems, uniformly receiving and integrating it into value-added data sources, and inputting different types of data information into a unified data storage space;
所述数据处理是指对采集过程中获得的数据进行定义描述和标准化;The data processing refers to the definition, description and standardization of the data obtained during the collection process;
所述数据查询和存储是指将数据处理后的数据存储在数据空间中并建立索引表结构;The data query and storage refers to storing the processed data in the data space and establishing an index table structure;
所述数据可视化和分析是指将动态反馈结果传输后的数据图形化并且进行展示,形成动态反馈价值链流图。之后将数据空间中的数据进行合理化的选择,形成供应链过程中的历史数据仓库,并且根据各环节系统中获得的直接数据和数据存储的历史数据,可以通过过程指标与数据对接与功能关联确定数据关联进行展示,之后用于历史数据的计算,用于分析整个价值链过程。The data visualization and analysis refers to graphically displaying the data after the dynamic feedback results are transmitted to form a dynamic feedback value chain flow diagram. Afterwards, the data in the data space will be rationally selected to form a historical data warehouse in the supply chain process. Based on the direct data obtained in each link system and the historical data stored in the data, it can be determined through process indicators and data docking and functional association. Data association is displayed and then used for calculation of historical data to analyze the entire value chain process.
具体的,所述的数据采集是从系统外部采集数据并输入到系统内部的一个接口,数据采集系统整合了信号、传感器、激励器、数据采集设备和应用软件。在网络协同制造平台将数据从各个数据系统中获得直接的数据,同一整合到用用众多信息的增值数据源存储介质中。数据源最初从网络运营前端页面,生产工厂,财务报账,供应回收中的各种系统和模块中获得。例如:客户管理系统、营销服务管理系统、企业资源管理系统、仓储物流管理系统、企业财务管理系统、生产过程控制系统、产品回收管理系统、产品售后服务系统、产品检测管理系统。从这些系统中获得的数据统一接收并整合到本发明系统的数据源当中,数据源用于驱动信息数据的可视化显示。对于标准化系统都会提供内建的增值数据源和事件目标源,可以直接适配从中获取设定时间段内的数据。对于非标准化的系统,则需要依照规范的形式进行支持扩充。数据源的存储需要有明确的标识设置。标识包括供货能力、销售属性、物料生产周期、设备利用率、标准生产节拍、设备换型时间、人员、轮班工作时间、设备名称和编号、客户基本信息、配送状况、产品市场销售数量、市场销售波动、客户购买力、产品打折敏感度、配送时长忍耐度;供货能力代表供应商企业原材料生产加工的产出效率;销售属性是指商品供消费者选择的选项和维度,比如产品的颜色,套餐和尺寸等设置;物料生产周期是指生产每种物料所消耗的时间;设备利用率是指设备的使用时间与理论生产时间的比值;标准生产节拍是指理论上的产品加工生产的速率;设备换型时间是指设备从生产一种零部件切换到生产其他零部件时设备本身所需要消耗的时间;人员是指在一个周期值班中实际可参与工作的人员数量;轮班工作时间是指企业规定的一个工厂周期的生产时间,即相邻两次换班的间隔,按生产线普遍的做法一般为8小时至12小时之间,均可以根据实际情况进行安排。设备名称和编号是指设备的标示性信息;客户基本信息包括客户的住址,姓名、年龄或者性别等基本信息的记录;配送状况是指产品的时间地点等配送信息;产品市场销售数量是指产品网络营销和线下营销的总数量;市场销售波动是指一段时期内受到自然因素或者其他客观因素等对产品销售产生的影响;顾客购买力是指顾客能接受的购买价格;产品打折敏感度是指企业商品打折力度对顾客吸引力的大小;配送时长忍耐度是指商品送达顾客手中时效的接受程度;Specifically, the data acquisition is an interface that collects data from outside the system and inputs it into the system. The data acquisition system integrates signals, sensors, actuators, data acquisition equipment and application software. In the network collaborative manufacturing platform, direct data is obtained from various data systems and integrated into value-added data source storage media that uses numerous information. Data sources are initially obtained from various systems and modules in network operation front-end pages, production plants, financial reporting, and supply recovery. For example: customer management system, marketing service management system, enterprise resource management system, warehousing logistics management system, enterprise financial management system, production process control system, product recycling management system, product after-sales service system, product testing management system. The data obtained from these systems are uniformly received and integrated into the data source of the system of the present invention, and the data source is used to drive the visual display of information data. Standardized systems will provide built-in value-added data sources and event target sources, which can be directly adapted to obtain data within a set time period. For non-standardized systems, support expansion needs to be carried out in the form of specifications. The storage of data sources requires clear identity settings. The identification includes supply capacity, sales attributes, material production cycle, equipment utilization, standard production cycle, equipment change time, personnel, shift working time, equipment name and number, basic customer information, distribution status, product market sales quantity, market Sales fluctuation, customer purchasing power, product discount sensitivity, and delivery time tolerance; supply capacity represents the output efficiency of raw material production and processing of the supplier company; sales attributes refer to the options and dimensions of goods for consumers to choose, such as product color, Settings such as packages and sizes; material production cycle refers to the time consumed in producing each material; equipment utilization refers to the ratio of equipment usage time to theoretical production time; standard production cycle refers to the theoretical product processing and production rate; Equipment changeover time refers to the time it takes for the equipment to switch from producing one component to producing other components; personnel refers to the number of people who can actually participate in the work in a cycle; shift working time refers to the time the enterprise The specified production time of a factory cycle, that is, the interval between two adjacent shifts, is generally between 8 hours and 12 hours according to the common practice on the production line, and can be arranged according to the actual situation. The name and number of the equipment refer to the identifying information of the equipment; the basic customer information includes records of the customer’s address, name, age or gender; the delivery status refers to the delivery information such as the time and place of the product; the product market sales quantity refers to the product The total amount of online marketing and offline marketing; market sales fluctuation refers to the impact of natural factors or other objective factors on product sales within a period of time; customer purchasing power refers to the purchase price that customers can accept; product discount sensitivity refers to The extent to which a company's product discounts are attractive to customers; delivery time tolerance refers to the acceptance of the timeliness of goods being delivered to customers;
所述的数据处理,将采集到的数据从数据源中获取之后对其进行定义,将数据进行清洗等操作,保持数据的标准化格式。最后进行数据源的抽象,起初指定与供应相关的供应生产系统的基础数据,与生产相关的来自生产系统的基础数据,与营销服务相关的来自营销服务系统的基础数据,与回收服务相关的来自回收服务系统的基础数据。通过建立数据规范和标准,对供应指标,生产指标,营销服务指标,回收服务指标等进行描述,将数据源配置在制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图中。利用这些数据源实现数据驱动的实时动态反馈流图分析方案。所述数据查询和存储是指将数据存储在数据存储介质中作为历史数据用于时间尺度上的动态反馈过程的留存;所述数据查询是指建立索引表,将处理后的数据存储在数据介质中。所述数据可视化和分析是指将初始数据进行图表等形式的可视化,然后将动态反馈结果传输后的数据图形化进行同窗口比较可视化展示,实时的动态分析各环节指标参数的变化,形成全价值链环节的动态反馈流图。数据存储介质中的数据需要进行合理化的选择,形成全价值链过程中的历史数据仓库,并且根据各环节系统中获得的直接数据和数据存储的历史数据,可以通过过程指标与数据对接与功能关联确定数据关联进行展示,之后可用于历史数据的计算,用于分析整个价值链过程。The data processing described includes defining the collected data after obtaining it from the data source, cleaning the data, and other operations to maintain the standardized format of the data. Finally, the data sources are abstracted. Initially, the basic data related to supply and production system are specified, the basic data related to production are from the production system, the basic data related to marketing services are from the marketing service system, and the basic data related to recycling services are from Basic data of recycling service system. By establishing data specifications and standards, supply indicators, production indicators, marketing service indicators, recycling service indicators, etc. are described, and the data sources are configured in the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises. Utilize these data sources to implement data-driven real-time dynamic feedback flow graph analysis solutions. The data query and storage refers to storing the data in the data storage medium as historical data for the retention of the dynamic feedback process on the time scale; the data query refers to establishing an index table and storing the processed data in the data medium. middle. The data visualization and analysis refers to visualizing the initial data in the form of charts and other forms, and then graphically displaying the data after the dynamic feedback results are transmitted in the same window, and dynamically analyzing the changes in indicator parameters in each link in real time to form full value. Dynamic feedback flow diagram of chain links. The data in the data storage medium needs to be rationally selected to form a historical data warehouse in the entire value chain process. Based on the direct data obtained in each link system and the historical data stored in the data, process indicators can be connected to the data and functionally associated. Determine the data association and display it, which can then be used to calculate historical data and analyze the entire value chain process.
本发明还提供了实现上述分析方法的系统,所述系统包括数据采集模块、数据处理模块、数据查询和存储模块、数据可视化与分析模块;所述数据采集模块用于从各个系统中采集数据并整合到数据采集系统中,用于从各个采集系统中数据整合并上传;所述数据处理模块用于对采集获得的数据进行清洗,标准化处理;所述数据查询和存储模块用于将处理后的数据储存在数据库中并建立索引表;所述数据可视化与分析模块用于将各环节数据可视化,以全价值链动态反馈流图的形式进行可视化,并能够将数据用于对整个价值链的过程计算分析。The present invention also provides a system for implementing the above analysis method. The system includes a data collection module, a data processing module, a data query and storage module, and a data visualization and analysis module; the data collection module is used to collect data from each system and Integrated into the data collection system, used to integrate and upload data from various collection systems; the data processing module is used to clean and standardize the collected data; the data query and storage module is used to process the processed data The data is stored in the database and an index table is established; the data visualization and analysis module is used to visualize the data of each link in the form of a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain, and can use the data to analyze the process of the entire value chain. Calculation.
如图1所示,本发明中供应链企业业务协同服务平台包括三个部分,采用数据共享集成管理方式,分别是供应协同平台子系统,生产协同平台子系统,营销服务协同平台子系统。其中制造/供应企业回收群可以访问供应协同平台子系统个和生产协同平台子系统中的库存管理,零件管理,配送管理,配合制造/供应企业的再制造产品/零部件的补充;将上述分析方法的系统个模块嵌入至其中,可以在平台上更加方便的调用数据。As shown in Figure 1, the supply chain enterprise business collaborative service platform in the present invention includes three parts, which adopt a data sharing integrated management method, namely the supply collaborative platform subsystem, the production collaborative platform subsystem, and the marketing service collaborative platform subsystem. Among them, the manufacturing/supply enterprise recycling group can access the inventory management, parts management, and distribution management in the supply collaboration platform subsystem and the production collaboration platform subsystem, and cooperate with the replenishment of remanufactured products/parts by manufacturing/supply enterprises; the above analysis The system modules of the method are embedded in it, making it easier to call data on the platform.
本发明还提供一种制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图数据共享集成管理方式平台,包括供应链企业业务协同服务平台、供应链企业业务协同平台服务器、制造企业A供应商群、供应商企业内部服务器、制造企业群、制造企业内部服务器、制造企业B经销商群和回收商群;The invention also provides a manufacturing enterprise full value chain dynamic feedback flow chart data sharing integrated management platform, including a supply chain enterprise business collaboration service platform, a supply chain enterprise business collaboration platform server, a manufacturing enterprise A supplier group, and a supplier enterprise. Internal server, manufacturing enterprise group, manufacturing enterprise internal server, manufacturing enterprise B dealer group and recycler group;
所述供应链企业业务协同服务平台与供应链企业业务协同平台服务器通信连接;The supply chain enterprise business collaboration service platform is communicatively connected to the supply chain enterprise business collaboration platform server;
所述供应商企业内部服务器设于所述制造企业A供应商群内部;The internal server of the supplier enterprise is located within the supplier group of manufacturing enterprise A;
所述制造企业内部服务器设于所述制造企业群内部;The internal server of the manufacturing enterprise is located within the manufacturing enterprise group;
所述制造企业A供应商群可以访问回收商群,制造企业群可以访问制造商企业B经销商群和回收商群,回收商群和制造企业B经销商群只能从供应链企业业务协同服务平台进行业务数据的访问,且他们都只能具备特定的访问权限。供应链企业业务协同服务平台包括三个部分,分别是供应协同平台子系统,生产协同平台子系统,营销服务协同平台子系统。其中制造/供应企业回收群可以访问供应协同平台子系统个和生产协同平台子系统中的库存管理,零件管理,配送管理,配合制造/供应企业的再制造产品/零部件的补充。将上述分析方法的系统个模块嵌入至其中,可以在平台上更加方便的调用数据。The manufacturing enterprise A supplier group can access the recycler group, the manufacturing enterprise group can access the manufacturer enterprise B dealer group and the recycler group, the recycler group and the manufacturing enterprise B dealer group can only access the supply chain enterprise business collaboration service The platform provides access to business data, and they can only have specific access rights. The supply chain enterprise business collaboration service platform includes three parts, namely the supply collaboration platform subsystem, the production collaboration platform subsystem, and the marketing service collaboration platform subsystem. Among them, the manufacturing/supply enterprise recycling group can access the inventory management, parts management, and distribution management in the supply collaboration platform subsystem and the production collaboration platform subsystem, and cooperate with the replenishment of remanufactured products/parts by manufacturing/supply enterprises. By embedding the system modules of the above analysis methods into it, data can be called more conveniently on the platform.
制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图分析方法中的数据分析包括分析和学习数据提取信息中的关联,利用数据挖掘算法确定频繁项集,同时将历史数据进行合理化选择和删除,形成能体现供应链状态历史的数据仓库,进行数据建模。当需要分析生产过程中市场客户的需求变化在时间因素上的影响时,从数据仓库中调用客户关联特征数据集。提炼与供应,生产,销售,产品回收等指标最相关数据的数学模型用于对价值链中各环节的库存水平进行分析和预测,从而指导供应链环节的平稳运行。Data analysis in the dynamic feedback flow graph analysis method of the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises includes analyzing and learning the associations in data extraction information, using data mining algorithms to determine frequent item sets, and rationally selecting and deleting historical data to form a system that can reflect supply Data warehouse of chain state history for data modeling. When it is necessary to analyze the impact of changes in market customer demand on time factors during the production process, the customer-related feature data set is called from the data warehouse. Mathematical models that extract the most relevant data for supply, production, sales, product recycling and other indicators are used to analyze and predict inventory levels in each link in the value chain, thereby guiding the smooth operation of the supply chain links.
本发明中还提供了一种展示信息编辑单元,用于对信息展示生成,通过其交互界面对过程进行编辑,展示信息的发布将制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图展示出来。The present invention also provides a display information editing unit, which is used to generate information display and edit the process through its interactive interface. The release of display information displays the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise.
本发明的制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图将上游供应商,中游制造商,下游的经销商以及回收服务商考虑在内,能够灵活得对全价值链下的各环节的业务数据进行监控,并且通过可视化终端将制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图展示出来。可用于确定下一周期经销商的订货率,生产商的预期生产率,供应商的订单预订率,减少企业间的计划不确定性,通过调节零件生产率,零件发货率,产品生产率,产品发货率,产品销售率,库存调节率等来稳定供应商,制造商,经销商的库存水平。通过提前对客户的操作行为进行分析,挖掘市场中具有潜在消费力的客户群体,为企业间的计划不确定性提供决策保障。确定产品营销过程中不产生增值的过程,为管理人员提供最大化的营销增值服务方式。The dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise of the present invention takes into account upstream suppliers, midstream manufacturers, downstream dealers and recycling service providers, and can flexibly monitor the business data of each link in the entire value chain. , and displays the dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises through the visual terminal. It can be used to determine the dealer's order rate in the next cycle, the manufacturer's expected productivity, and the supplier's order booking rate, reducing planning uncertainty among enterprises by adjusting part productivity, parts delivery rate, product productivity, product delivery rate, product sales rate, inventory adjustment rate, etc. to stabilize the inventory levels of suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors. By analyzing customers' operating behaviors in advance, we can discover customer groups with potential spending power in the market and provide decision-making guarantee for planning uncertainties among enterprises. Determine the processes that do not generate value-added in the product marketing process and provide managers with maximum marketing value-added services.
实施例Example
要实现制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图分析,具体包括以下步骤:To realize dynamic feedback flow diagram analysis of the entire value chain of manufacturing enterprises, the specific steps include the following:
步骤1、收集有关供应、生产,营销服务,回收服务环节的信息,建立健全的数据源存储。与供应环节相关的来自供应系统的数据包括原材料采购当期的库存量,主要加工设备和标签以及数量,产品生产周期,日产能,主要供应产品的种类,企业交货的形式,购买折扣力度,供应商运输时间和距离,重新采购的材料规格,常见规格的信息有重量,材质,大小等,确定供应厂家的编号,采购单价等;与制造环节相关的来自生产系统的数据包括采集生产设备的工作时间参数,生产的工艺条件和质量数据,直接运营成本和间接生产成本,采集与时间参数紧密相关的生产数据,包括生产设备的前需和后续关系,有效工作的设备数量和工作台的可靠性参数,生产产出量比例,合格品的比例等;与营销服务环节相关的来自营销系统的数据与营销效果和所选择的营销方式的连接息息相关。包括产品价格预测,产品性能推广,配送时效力,销量,竞争产品,客户的基本信息,客户关系网络,客户购买力,促销敏感度,配送时长忍耐度;与回收环节相关的来自回收商系统的数据包括企业回收能力,回收渠道,回收产品可再制造率,回收库存数量,制造商与供应商的回购价,市场可回收波动量等;Step 1. Collect information about supply, production, marketing services, and recycling services, and establish a sound data source storage. Data from the supply system related to the supply chain include the current inventory of raw material procurement, main processing equipment and labels and quantities, product production cycles, daily production capacity, types of main supplied products, corporate delivery forms, purchase discounts, supply Commercial transportation time and distance, re-purchased material specifications, common specification information include weight, material, size, etc., determine supplier number, purchase unit price, etc.; data from the production system related to the manufacturing process includes the work of collecting production equipment Time parameters, production process conditions and quality data, direct operating costs and indirect production costs, collect production data closely related to time parameters, including the pre-demand and follow-up relationship of production equipment, the number of effectively working equipment and the reliability of the workbench parameters, the proportion of production output, the proportion of qualified products, etc.; the data from the marketing system related to the marketing service link are closely related to the connection between the marketing effect and the selected marketing method. Including product price prediction, product performance promotion, delivery effectiveness, sales volume, competitive products, basic customer information, customer relationship network, customer purchasing power, promotion sensitivity, delivery time tolerance; data from the recycler system related to the recycling process Including enterprise recycling capabilities, recycling channels, remanufacturing rate of recycled products, recycling inventory quantity, repurchase prices of manufacturers and suppliers, market recyclability fluctuations, etc.;
步骤2、对所述数据收集传递,常见的包括硬件的收集输入,软件数据系统之间的接口连通;Step 2. For the data collection and transfer, the common ones include hardware collection input and interface connection between software data systems;
步骤3、结合客户管理系统,营销服务系统,企业资源管理系统,仓储物流管理系统,企业财务管理系统,生产过程控制系统,生产过程执行管理系统,产品回收管理系统,产品售后服务系统,产品检测管理系统中获取不同连续时段的动态数据,并于实际环节进行相互匹配,作为数据源中的基础数据;Step 3. Combine the customer management system, marketing service system, enterprise resource management system, warehousing and logistics management system, enterprise financial management system, production process control system, production process execution management system, product recycling management system, product after-sales service system, and product testing Dynamic data of different consecutive periods are obtained in the management system and matched with each other in actual links as the basic data in the data source;
步骤4、从中选择客户的操作行为数据,并对数据进行清洗与标准化处理,关联特征并通过相关系数法选择出最优特征子集,降低数据的复杂度,将其数据作为LSTM神经网络的训练集和测试集。通过训练得到最优的参数进行客户购买行为预测。Step 4. Select the customer's operational behavior data, clean and standardize the data, associate features and select the optimal feature subset through the correlation coefficient method, reduce the complexity of the data, and use the data as training for the LSTM neural network set and test set. The optimal parameters are obtained through training to predict customer purchasing behavior.
步骤5、依据所要关注的制造型企业全价值链动态反馈的重点环节,建立起动态反馈的因果关系图,并且依据映射关系建立起制造型企业全价值的动态反馈流图,将前述步骤1到4中规整的数据加载到制造型企业全价值链动态反馈的流图中,建立数据的管理体系,随着业务环节的进行,由各个系统得到的数据并经过处理后选取重点指标连接后将会以动态反馈流图的形式进行实时的显示。Step 5: Establish a causal relationship diagram of dynamic feedback based on the key links of dynamic feedback of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise that you want to focus on, and establish a dynamic feedback flow diagram of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise based on the mapping relationship, and combine the aforementioned steps 1 to The regular data in 4 are loaded into the flow chart of the dynamic feedback of the entire value chain of the manufacturing enterprise, and a data management system is established. As the business process progresses, the data obtained from each system will be processed and connected by selecting key indicators. Real-time display in the form of dynamic feedback flow graph.
通过这种方法的设计是在数据收集之后的可展示方式,其内在的逻辑和实现方式的背后利用的是先进的现代互联网技术的集成与互通,在具备很多基础数据的基础上,对数据进行选择和筛选,标准化等处理,将相互有关联的指标选择出来进行建立相互间的关联,形成一个整体闭环的动态反馈逻辑流图,并针对其中的价值环节进行可视化的分析。The design through this method is a displayable method after data collection. Behind its internal logic and implementation method is the integration and interoperability of advanced modern Internet technology. On the basis of having a lot of basic data, the data is Through selection, screening, standardization and other processes, relevant indicators are selected to establish correlations with each other to form an overall closed-loop dynamic feedback logic flow diagram, and visual analysis is performed on the value links.
比如针对于客户行为操作的记录次数来说:客户行为操作次数受到产品的质量,产品的外观,产品的功能等的影响,这些影响又受到企业员工的积极性,企业的薪酬设定对员工的激励,员工技能的熟练度,员工对产品质量的重视度等一系列的因素;这样就可以将一系列的背后元素集中现在一个指标上去体现,深度挖掘当这个指标变化时对其他重要指标的影响;同时建立因果关系图,理清各重要指标间的关系,形成动态反馈流图,实现对全价值链环节的动态反馈的过程分析。For example, regarding the recorded number of customer behavior operations: the number of customer behavior operations is affected by the quality of the product, the appearance of the product, the function of the product, etc. These effects are also affected by the enthusiasm of the company's employees, and the company's salary setting motivates employees. , the proficiency of employee skills, the importance employees attach to product quality, and a series of factors; in this way, a series of behind-the-scenes elements can be concentrated into one indicator, and the impact on other important indicators when this indicator changes can be deeply explored; At the same time, a causal relationship diagram is established to clarify the relationship between important indicators, form a dynamic feedback flow diagram, and realize the process analysis of dynamic feedback of the entire value chain.
综上,本发明公开了一种制造型企业全价值链动态反馈流图分析的生成方法。包括从企业智能化系统中进行增值数据的采集;将获取的增值数据源进行处理,将处理好的增值数据源进行存储并与对应的业务环节进行关联表示;选择合适的指标对数据源进行数学建模操作;对增值数据源进行过程映射生成动态反馈价值链流图;对生成的制造型企业动态反馈价值链流图进行输出分析,并将结果存储至历史数据库中。本发明主要针对企业供应/生产/营销/产品回收/服务环节等所产生的一系列活动通过神经网络预测和库存水平调节来减弱因牛鞭效应对各环节企业库存水平波动的影响。不仅可以合理规划供应/生产时间和周期,提高供应链水平效率,减少原材料的冗余,同时实现库存优化,降低生产成本,也为企业的业务流程环节优化提供新的解决思路。In summary, the present invention discloses a method for generating dynamic feedback flow diagram analysis of the entire value chain of a manufacturing enterprise. It includes collecting value-added data from enterprise intelligent systems; processing the obtained value-added data sources, storing the processed value-added data sources and associating them with the corresponding business links; selecting appropriate indicators to perform mathematical calculations on the data sources Modeling operations; perform process mapping on value-added data sources to generate dynamic feedback value chain flow diagrams; perform output analysis on the generated dynamic feedback value chain flow diagrams of manufacturing enterprises, and store the results in a historical database. This invention is mainly aimed at a series of activities generated by enterprise supply/production/marketing/product recycling/service links, etc., to reduce the impact of the bullwhip effect on the fluctuation of enterprise inventory levels in each link through neural network prediction and inventory level adjustment. It can not only reasonably plan the supply/production time and cycle, improve the efficiency of the supply chain level, reduce the redundancy of raw materials, but also achieve inventory optimization and reduce production costs, and also provide new solutions for the optimization of enterprise business process links.
本发明所述方法的设计是在数据收集之后的可展示方式,其内在的逻辑和实现方式的背后利用的是先进的现代互联网技术的集成与互通,在具备很多基础数据的基础上,对数据进行选择和筛选、标准化等处理,将相互有关联的指标选择出来进行建立相互间的关联,形成一个整体闭环的动态反馈逻辑流图,并针对其中的价值环节进行可视化的分析。The method described in the present invention is designed in a displayable manner after data collection. Behind its internal logic and implementation method is the integration and interoperability of advanced modern Internet technology. On the basis of having a lot of basic data, the data Carry out selection, screening, standardization and other processes, select related indicators to establish correlations with each other, form an overall closed-loop dynamic feedback logic flow diagram, and perform visual analysis on the value links.
比如针对于客户行为操作的记录次数来说:客户行为操作次数受到产品的质量,产品的外观,产品的功能等的影响,这些影响又受到企业员工的积极性,企业的薪酬设定对员工的激励,员工技能的熟练度,员工对产品质量的重视度等一系列的因素。这样就可以将一系列的背后元素集中现在一个指标上去体现,深度挖掘当这个指标变化时对其他重要指标的影响。同时建立因果关系图,理清各重要指标间的关系,形成动态反馈流图,实现对全价值链环节的动态反馈的过程分析。For example, regarding the recorded number of customer behavior operations: the number of customer behavior operations is affected by the quality of the product, the appearance of the product, the function of the product, etc. These effects are also affected by the enthusiasm of the company's employees, and the company's salary setting motivates employees. , the proficiency of employee skills, the importance employees attach to product quality, and a series of factors. In this way, a series of underlying elements can be concentrated on one indicator, and the impact on other important indicators when this indicator changes can be deeply explored. At the same time, a causal relationship diagram is established to clarify the relationship between important indicators, form a dynamic feedback flow diagram, and realize the process analysis of dynamic feedback of the entire value chain.
对所公开的实施例的上述说明,使本领域专业技术人员能够实现或使用本发明。对这些实施例的多种修改对本领域的专业技术人员来说将是显而易见的,本文中所定义的一般原理可以在不脱离本发明的精神或范围的情况下,在其它实施例中实现。因此,本发明将不会被限制于本文所示的这些实施例,而是要符合与本文所公开的原理和新颖特点相一致的最宽的范围。The above description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be practiced in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
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CN117952567A (en) * | 2024-03-25 | 2024-04-30 | 四川多联实业有限公司 | Production management method and system based on MES intelligent manufacturing |
CN118710302A (en) * | 2024-08-28 | 2024-09-27 | 广东算法洞见科技有限公司 | A method and related device for realizing valuation using artificial intelligence technology |
CN118822053A (en) * | 2024-09-20 | 2024-10-22 | 中数通信息有限公司 | Data closed-loop optimization processing method for enterprise data |
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CN117952567A (en) * | 2024-03-25 | 2024-04-30 | 四川多联实业有限公司 | Production management method and system based on MES intelligent manufacturing |
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CN118822053A (en) * | 2024-09-20 | 2024-10-22 | 中数通信息有限公司 | Data closed-loop optimization processing method for enterprise data |
CN118822053B (en) * | 2024-09-20 | 2025-01-03 | 中数通信息有限公司 | Data closed-loop optimization processing method for enterprise data |
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