CN116805031B - A method and device for predicting flood risk - Google Patents

Abstract

The method and the device for predicting the flood inundation risk acquire position points to be predicted with known position coordinates; according to the distance relation between the position point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point, calculating to obtain a first flood occurrence point corresponding to the position point to be predicted and a corresponding first flooding probability; according to the distance relation and the topography relation between the position point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point, calculating to obtain a second flood occurrence point corresponding to the position point to be predicted and a corresponding second flooding probability; according to the pneumatic relation between the position point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point, calculating to obtain a third flood occurrence point corresponding to the position point to be predicted and a corresponding third flooding probability; and integrating the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point, and the actual flood occurrence point and the actual flooding probability. The method can improve the accuracy of risk prediction.

Description

A method and device for predicting flood risk

Technical field

The embodiments herein relate to the field of risk prediction, and in particular, to a method and device for predicting flood risk.

Background technique

Flood disasters are natural disasters that threaten the safety of relevant areas when water bodies such as rivers, oceans, and lakes rise above a certain level. Generally speaking, rivers, oceans, and lakes cover a large area. When a flood breaks out, one of them will Or it may erupt in multiple locations, and the floods that erupt in corresponding locations will quickly spread and submerge nearby housing, farmland, etc.

Currently, many regions conduct risk prediction and early warning for areas susceptible to flood disasters. However, existing methods only conduct risk prediction based on historical experience, resulting in low accuracy of risk prediction.

Therefore, there is an urgent need for a flood risk prediction method that can improve the accuracy of risk prediction.

Contents of the invention

In order to solve the above technical problems, embodiments of this specification provide a flood inundation risk prediction method and device to improve the accuracy of risk prediction.

To achieve the above objectives, on the one hand, embodiments of this specification provide a flood risk prediction method, including:

Obtain the location point to be predicted with known location coordinates;

Calculate the first flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding first inundation probability according to the distance relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point;

Calculate the second flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding second inundation probability based on the distance relationship and terrain relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point;

According to the wind movement relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point, a third flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and a corresponding third inundation probability are calculated;

Combining the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point, the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted is obtained;

The actual flooding probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted is obtained by combining the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point.

Preferably, calculating the first flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding first flooding probability based on the distance relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point further includes: :

According to at least one known flood occurrence point, select the first flood occurrence point connected to the location point to be predicted;

According to the connection distance between the location point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point, the first inundation probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point is calculated.

Preferably, calculating the first flooding probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point based on the connection distance between the location point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point further includes:

The first flooding probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point is calculated by the following formula:

;

Among them, A is the first inundation probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point, A _c is the corresponding inundation probability when the connection distance between the location point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point is 0, x is the location point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point. The connected distance between flood occurrence points, m is the influence factor.

Preferably, the second flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding second flood occurrence point are calculated based on the distance relationship and terrain relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. The flooding probability further includes:

Based on at least one known flood occurrence point, select a second flood occurrence point whose terrain is higher than the location point to be predicted;

The second flood occurrence is calculated based on the straight-line distance between the location point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point and the terrain difference between the location point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point. The second flooding probability corresponding to the point.

Preferably, the calculation is based on the linear distance between the location point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point, and the terrain difference between the location point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point. The second flooding probability corresponding to the second flood occurrence point further includes:

The second flooding probability corresponding to the second flood occurrence point is calculated through the following formula:

;

Among them, B is the second flooding probability corresponding to the second flood point, p is the terrain difference between the location point to be predicted and the second flood point, q is the straight line between the location point to be predicted and the second flood point. distance.

Preferably, the third flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding third flooding probability are calculated based on the wind movement relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. Further includes:

According to at least one known flood occurrence point, select a third flood occurrence point located at the upwind of the location point to be predicted;

According to the wind force in the space where the location point to be predicted and the third flood occurrence point are located, the third inundation probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point is calculated.

Preferably, calculating the third flooding probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point based on the wind force in the space where the location point to be predicted and the third flood occurrence point further includes:

The third flooding probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point is calculated through the following formula:

;

Among them, C is the third inundation probability corresponding to the third flood point, C _t is the probability adjustment factor, y is the wind level in the space between the location point to be predicted and the third flood point, and n is the influence factor.

Preferably, obtaining the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted by combining the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point further includes:

Use the flood occurrence points involved in the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point as the actual flood occurrence points corresponding to the location points to be predicted; or

The overlapping flood occurrence point among the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point is used as the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted.

Preferably, obtaining the actual flooding probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted by integrating the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point further includes:

The average of the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point is used as the actual flooding probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted; or

According to the first inundation probability, the second inundation probability and the third inundation probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point, and the weight corresponding to each inundation probability, the actual inundation probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted is obtained by weighted summation.

On the other hand, embodiments of this specification provide a device for predicting flood risk, including:

The acquisition module is used to obtain the position points to be predicted with known position coordinates;

A first flooding probability calculation module, configured to calculate the first flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding third flood occurrence point based on the distance relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. - Probability of flooding;

A second flooding probability calculation module, configured to calculate a second flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted based on the distance relationship and terrain relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point; The corresponding second flooding probability;

The third flooding probability calculation module is used to calculate the third flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding flood occurrence point based on the wind movement relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. third submergence probability;

The actual flood occurrence point determination module is used to synthesize the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point to obtain the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted;

The actual inundation probability determination module is used to combine the first inundation probability, the second inundation probability and the third inundation probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point to obtain the actual inundation probability corresponding to the to-be-predicted location point.

Through the method in the embodiment of this article, the location point to be predicted with known position coordinates can be obtained, and the location to be predicted is further determined comprehensively based on the distance relationship, terrain relationship, and wind movement relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. The actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the point, and the corresponding actual inundation probability, thereby improving the accuracy of flood inundation risk prediction.

In order to make the above and other objects, features and advantages of this specification more obvious and understandable, preferred embodiments are cited below and described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

Description of the drawings

In order to more clearly explain the embodiments of this specification or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only These are some embodiments of this specification. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without exerting creative efforts.

Figure 1 shows a schematic diagram of the steps of a flood risk prediction method provided by the embodiment of this article;

Figure 2 shows a schematic diagram of the steps of the calculation method for the first flood occurrence point and the first inundation probability provided by the embodiment of this article;

Figure 3 shows a schematic diagram of the steps of the calculation method for the second flood occurrence point and the second inundation probability provided by the embodiment of this article;

Figure 4 shows a schematic diagram of the steps of the calculation method for the third flood occurrence point and the third inundation probability provided by the embodiment of this article;

Figure 5 shows a schematic structural diagram of a flood risk prediction device provided by the embodiment of this article;

Figure 6 shows a schematic structural diagram of the computer device provided by the embodiment of this article.

[Explanation of reference symbols]

110. Acquisition module; 120. First inundation probability calculation module; 130. Second inundation probability calculation module; 140. Third inundation probability calculation module; 150. Actual flood occurrence point determination module; 160. Actual inundation probability determination module.

Detailed ways

The technical solutions in the embodiments of this article will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of this article. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of this article, rather than all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in this article, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the scope of protection in this article.

It should be noted that the terms “first”, “second”, etc. in the description, claims and above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It is to be understood that the data so used are interchangeable under appropriate circumstances so that the embodiments described herein can be practiced in sequences other than those illustrated or described herein. In addition, the terms "including" and "having" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions, for example, a process, method, apparatus, product or equipment that includes a series of steps or units and need not be limited to those explicitly listed. Those steps or elements may instead include other steps or elements not expressly listed or inherent to the process, method, product or apparatus.

Currently, many regions conduct risk prediction and early warning for areas susceptible to flood disasters. However, existing methods only conduct risk prediction based on historical experience, resulting in low accuracy of risk prediction.

In order to solve the above problems, the embodiment of this article provides a flood risk prediction method, as shown in Figure 1. The method includes the following steps:

S101: Obtain the position point to be predicted with known position coordinates;

S102: Calculate the first flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding first inundation probability based on the distance relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point;

S103: Calculate the second flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding second inundation probability based on the distance relationship and terrain relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point;

S104: According to the wind movement relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point, calculate the third flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding third inundation probability;

S105: Combine the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point to obtain the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted;

S106: Combine the first inundation probability, the second inundation probability and the third inundation probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point to obtain the actual inundation probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted.

The location point to be predicted is a location point to be predicted whether there is a risk of flooding. The location coordinates of the location point are known, for example, the location point to be predicted has a known longitude and latitude value. Known flood occurrence points are flood occurrence points at certain known longitudes and latitudes along the river. Generally speaking, these points are prone to flooding during flood seasons or other periods due to frequent embankment breaches in history or due to low terrain and other objective reasons. A flood occurs.

Although there are known flood occurrence points, the floods caused by all known flood occurrence points may not inundate the location points to be predicted. For example, the location points to be predicted that are too far away from the known flood occurrence points may not be inundated by floods. Therefore, according to the distance relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point, the first flood occurrence point that may submerge the location point to be predicted is determined, and if the first flood occurrence point causes a flood, the location point to be predicted The first submergence probability of being submerged.

In addition to the distance relationship, factors that affect whether the known flood point will submerge the location point to be predicted are also terrain. For example, if the terrain of the known flood point is too low, the flood may not submerge the location point to be predicted. The location to be predicted can be determined based on the location. The distance relationship and terrain relationship between the point and at least one known flood occurrence point, determine the second flood occurrence point that may submerge the location point to be predicted, and if the second flood occurrence point causes a flood, the location point to be predicted will be submerged The second submergence probability.

In addition to the relationship between distance and terrain, factors that affect whether a known flood point will submerge the location to be predicted are also wind factors. Wind is a gas flow in nature. The stronger the wind, the faster the gas flow, and the flood is more likely to submerge. For the location point to be predicted, the third flood point that may submerge the location point to be predicted can be determined based on the wind movement relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood point, and if the third flood point triggers Flood, the third inundation probability of the location point to be predicted being inundated.

Further combine the above-mentioned first flood occurrence point, second flood occurrence point and third flood occurrence point to obtain the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted, and combine the first inundation probability and second inundation probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point. probability and the third inundation probability, the actual inundation probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted can be obtained.

Through the method in the embodiment of this article, the location point to be predicted with known position coordinates can be obtained, and the location to be predicted is further determined comprehensively based on the distance relationship, terrain relationship, and wind movement relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. The actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the point, and the corresponding actual inundation probability, thereby improving the accuracy of flood inundation risk prediction.

As shown in Figure 2, in this embodiment, according to the distance relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point, the first flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted is calculated and The corresponding first flooding probability further includes:

S201: Based on at least one known flood occurrence point, select the first flood occurrence point connected to the location point to be predicted;

S202: Calculate the first inundation probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point based on the connection distance between the location point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point.

Only the first flood point that is connected to the location point to be predicted will submerge the location point to be predicted when a flood occurs. The connection in the embodiment of this article means that there is a path between the location point to be predicted and the first flood point. The water flow can pass through, and based on the specific connection distance, the first flooding probability corresponding to the first flood point can be calculated. The connection distance refers to the process of assuming that the flood originates from the first flood point and flows to the location to be predicted. The distance traveled, for example, there is a hill blocking the area between the first flood occurrence point and the location to be predicted, causing the water flow to go around the hill to reach the location to be predicted, then the corresponding detour distance is the connecting distance, and the specific connecting distance can be based on the actual Situation analysis and calculation.

Specifically, the first flooding probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point is calculated through the following formula:

;

Among them, A is the first inundation probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point, A _c is the corresponding inundation probability when the connection distance between the location point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point is 0, x is the location point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point. The connected distance between flood occurrence points, m is the influence factor.

It can be seen from the above formula that the first flooding probability decreases with the increase of the connection distance. A _c can be set according to the actual situation. Generally speaking, it can be taken as 100%. m is the influence factor and taken as a positive number. Specifically, it can be set according to the actual situation. It is determined that the smaller the value of m, the greater the multiple the first flooding probability is reduced when the connectivity distance increases by the same amount. For example, when m is 3, for every increase in connectivity distance by 1, the first flooding probability shrinks by 1/3. , and when m is 2, every time the connectivity distance increases by 1, the first flooding probability decreases by 1/2.

In addition to being set according to the actual situation, the impact factor can also be set according to the flood water volume. Generally speaking, the flood water volume can be characterized by the water level. The higher the water level, the greater the water volume. When the connecting distance increases by the same amount (for example, The connected distance increases by 1). When the amount of water is larger, the first submergence probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted should be larger (the easier it is to submerge), and the first submergence probability reduction multiple should be smaller, and the smaller the reduction multiple means connectivity. The smaller the impact of distance on the first inundation probability, the standard value of water volume or water level can be set. When the water volume of the flood is the standard value of water volume h, the value of m is the set value a. As the water volume of the flood is greater than h, The value of m is correspondingly greater than a, and the change rate of m value compared to the set value a can be equal to the change rate of flood water volume compared to the standard value of water volume. For example, the flood water volume is H, and the change rate is (H-h)/h. , and the corresponding value of m should be a×(1+(H-h)/h), so that the specific value of m can be determined. The calculation method for the case where the flood volume is less than h is similar to that of greater than h, and will not be described in detail in this article.

As shown in Figure 3, in this embodiment, the second flood corresponding to the location point to be predicted is calculated based on the distance relationship and terrain relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. The occurrence point and the corresponding second inundation probability further include:

S301: Based on at least one known flood occurrence point, select a second flood occurrence point whose terrain is higher than the location point to be predicted;

S302: Calculate the second flood occurrence point based on the linear distance between the location point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point and the terrain difference between the location point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point. The second flooding probability corresponding to the flood occurrence point.

Only the second flood point whose terrain is higher than the point to be predicted is likely to submerge the point to be predicted when a flood occurs. Specifically, it can be determined based on the straight-line distance between the point to be predicted and the second flood point, and the location to be predicted. The terrain difference between the point and the second flood occurrence point is used to calculate the second inundation probability corresponding to the second flood occurrence point. The straight-line distance refers to the shortest distance between the location point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point, and the terrain difference refers to the difference between the terrain height of the location point to be predicted and the terrain height of the second flood occurrence point.

The second flooding probability corresponding to the second flood occurrence point is calculated through the following formula:

;

Among them, B is the second flooding probability corresponding to the second flood point, p is the terrain difference between the location point to be predicted and the second flood point, q is the straight line between the location point to be predicted and the second flood point. distance.

It can be seen from the above formula that the second submergence probability decreases with the increase of the straight-line distance and increases with the increase of the terrain difference.

As shown in Figure 4, in this embodiment, the third flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted is calculated based on the wind movement relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. And the corresponding third flooding probability further includes:

S401: Based on at least one known flood occurrence point, select a third flood occurrence point located upwind of the location point to be predicted;

S402: Calculate the third inundation probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point based on the wind force in the space where the location point to be predicted and the third flood occurrence point are located.

The upwind refers to where the wind blows from. When the third flood point is located upwind of the point to be predicted, the third flood point may submerge the point to be predicted when flooding occurs. The specific point can be determined according to the location point to be predicted and the point to be predicted. The wind force in the space where the third flood point is located is used to calculate the third flooding probability corresponding to the third flood point. The wind force refers to the force exerted by the wind blowing on the object. It is generally based on the force the wind blows on the ground or water surface. The various phenomena produced on objects divide the wind force into 18 levels, with the minimum being level 0 and the maximum being level 17.

Specifically, the third flooding probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point is calculated through the following formula:

;

Among them, C is the third inundation probability corresponding to the third flood point, C _t is the probability adjustment factor, y is the wind level in the space between the location point to be predicted and the third flood point, and n is the influence factor.

It can be seen from the above formula that the third inundation probability increases with the increase of wind level. n is the influence factor, which is a positive number greater than 1. It can be set according to the actual situation. The larger the value of n, the higher the wind level is. At the same time, the degree of increase in the third inundation probability is smaller. For example, the wind level changes from level 1 to level 2. When n is set to 1, the corresponding third inundation probability increases by 4%, and when n is set to 100, the corresponding third inundation probability increases. increased by 0.4%.

C _t is a positive fraction, used in conjunction with n, to adjust the third inundation probability. After determining the value of n, y takes the highest wind level, which is 18. At this time, the value of C is 100%, and then C _t can be obtained For example, n is 1, 1n(18+1) is approximately equal to 2.9, and C is 100%. The calculated value of C _t is 1/2.9, which is approximately equal to 0.34.

In addition to being set according to the actual situation, the impact factor can also be set according to the flood volume. Generally speaking, the flood volume can be characterized by the water level. The higher the water level, the greater the water volume. Under the same conditions as the wind level increases ( For example, the wind level increases by 1). When the water volume is greater, the third submergence probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted should be greater (the easier it is to be submerged). The smaller the value of n, the water volume standard value or the water level standard value can be set. , when the water volume of the flood is the water volume standard value h, the value of n is the set value b. As the water volume of the flood is greater than h, the value of n is correspondingly greater than b, and the value of n is the change rate compared to the set value b. It can be equal to the change rate of flood water volume compared with the standard value of water volume. For example, the flood water volume is H, the change rate is (H-h)/h, and the corresponding n value should be b×(1+(H-h)/h), so The specific value of n can be determined. The calculation method for the case where the flood volume is less than h is similar to that of greater than h, and will not be described in detail in this article.

In the embodiment of this article, the method of synthesizing the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point to obtain the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted further includes:

Use the flood occurrence points involved in the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point as the actual flood occurrence points corresponding to the location points to be predicted; or

The overlapping flood occurrence point among the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point is used as the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted.

For example, the first flood occurrence point includes points 1, 2, and 4, the second flood occurrence point includes points 2, 3, and 4, and the third flood occurrence point includes points 2, 7, and 8. The actual flood occurrence points can be 1, 2, and 3, 4, 7, 8 o'clock, or 2 o'clock.

The synthesis of the first inundation probability, the second inundation probability and the third inundation probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point to obtain the actual inundation probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted further includes:

The average of the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point is used as the actual flooding probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted; or

According to the first inundation probability, the second inundation probability and the third inundation probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point, and the weight corresponding to each inundation probability, the actual inundation probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted is obtained by weighted summation.

If the actual flood occurrence points are 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, and 8, taking point 4 as an example, the actual inundation probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted is the first inundation probability of the first flood occurrence point corresponding to point 4, and The second flood occurrence point corresponds to the mean value of the second flooding probability of 4 points (the third flood occurrence point does not include 4 points). It can also be calculated based on weights. The specific weight distribution can be set according to the actual situation. For example, the weights of the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability are 2:3:5. Taking 4 points as an example, the first flood occurs. The first flood probability corresponding to point 4 is multiplied by 20%, and the second flood probability corresponding to point 4 of the second flood occurrence point is multiplied by 30% and then summed.

Through the method in this article, it is possible to obtain the actual flooding probabilities of the location points to be predicted relative to multiple actual flood occurrence points. For example, there are a total of 6 actual flood occurrence points, namely 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7. , 8 points, the actual flooding probabilities corresponding to the above 6 points can be obtained.

Based on the same concept as the method for predicting flood risk described above, embodiments of this specification also provide a device for predicting flood risk. Since the implementation of the device to solve the problem is similar to the method, the implementation of the specific device in the embodiments of this article can be referred to the implementation of the foregoing method, and repeated details will not be repeated.

Specifically, as shown in Figure 5, a flood inundation risk prediction device provided by the embodiment of this specification includes: an acquisition module 110, a first inundation probability calculation module 120, a second inundation probability calculation module 130, and a third inundation probability calculation module. Module 140, actual flood occurrence point determination module 150, and actual flooding probability determination module 160.

The acquisition module 110 is used to obtain the position point to be predicted with known position coordinates;

The first flooding probability calculation module 120 is used to calculate the first flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted and the corresponding flood occurrence point based on the distance relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. first flooding probability;

The second flooding probability calculation module 130 is used to calculate a second flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted based on the distance relationship and terrain relationship between the location point to be predicted and at least one known flood occurrence point. and the corresponding second flooding probability;

The third inundation probability calculation module 140 is used to calculate the third flood occurrence point corresponding to the to-be-predicted position point and the corresponding The third submergence probability;

The actual flood occurrence point determination module 150 is used to synthesize the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point to obtain the actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted;

The actual inundation probability determination module 160 is used to combine the first inundation probability, the second inundation probability and the third inundation probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point to obtain the actual inundation probability corresponding to the to-be-predicted location point.

This embodiment provides a computer device, the internal structure diagram of which can be shown in Figure 6 . The computer device includes a processor, memory, and network interfaces connected through a system bus. Wherein, the processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes non-volatile storage media and internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores operating systems and computer programs. This internal memory provides an environment for the execution of operating systems and computer programs in non-volatile storage media. The network interface of the computer device is used to communicate with external terminals through a network connection.

Those skilled in the art can understand that the structure shown in Figure 6 is only a block diagram of a partial structure related to the solution of the present application, and does not constitute a limitation on the computer equipment to which the solution of the present application is applied. Specific computer equipment can May include more or fewer parts than shown, or combine certain parts, or have a different arrangement of parts.

In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory and a processor. A computer program is stored in the memory. When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps in the above method embodiments.

In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps in the above method embodiments are implemented.

In one embodiment, a computer program product is provided, including a computer program that implements the steps in each of the above method embodiments when executed by a processor.

Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments can be completed by instructing relevant hardware through a computer program. The computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage. In the media, when executed, the computer program may include the processes of the above method embodiments. Any reference to memory, database or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application may include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, optical memory, high-density embedded non-volatile memory, resistive memory (ReRAM), magnetic variable memory (Magnetoresistive Random) Access Memory (MRAM), Ferroelectric Random Access Memory (FRAM), Phase Change Memory (PCM), graphene memory, etc. Volatile memory may include random access memory (Random Access Memory, RAM) or external cache memory, etc. As an illustration and not a limitation, RAM can be in various forms, such as static random access memory (Static Random Access Memory, SRAM) or dynamic random access memory (Dynamic Random Access Memory, DRAM). The databases involved in the various embodiments provided in this application may include at least one of a relational database and a non-relational database. Non-relational databases may include blockchain-based distributed databases, etc., but are not limited thereto. The processors involved in the various embodiments provided in this application may be general-purpose processors, central processing units, graphics processors, digital signal processors, programmable logic devices, quantum computing-based data processing logic devices, etc., and are not limited to this.

It should also be understood that in the embodiments of this article, the term "and/or" is only an association relationship describing associated objects, indicating that three relationships can exist. For example, A and/or B can mean: A exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone. In addition, the character "/" in this article generally indicates that the related objects are an "or" relationship.

Those of ordinary skill in the art can appreciate that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented with electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination of both. In order to clearly illustrate the relationship between hardware and software Interchangeability, in the above description, the composition and steps of each example have been generally described according to functions. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. The skilled artisan may implement the described functionality using different methods for each particular application, but such implementations should not be considered beyond the scope of this article.

Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that for the convenience and simplicity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices and units described above can be referred to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be described again here.

In the several embodiments provided herein, it should be understood that the disclosed systems, devices and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device embodiments described above are only illustrative. For example, the division of the units is only a logical function division. In actual implementation, there may be other division methods. For example, multiple units or components may be combined or can be integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored, or not implemented. In addition, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection between each other shown or discussed may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, or may be electrical, mechanical or other forms of connection.

The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed to multiple network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the embodiments of this article.

This article uses specific embodiments to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this article. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the methods and core ideas of this article; at the same time, for those of ordinary skill in the field, based on the ideas of this article , there will be changes in the specific implementation and application scope. In summary, the content of this description should not be understood as a limitation of this article.

Claims (4)

1. A method of predicting risk of flooding, comprising:

acquiring a position point to be predicted of a known position coordinate;

selecting a first flood occurrence point which is communicated with the position point to be predicted according to at least one known flood occurrence point; according to the communication distance between the position point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point, calculating to obtain a first flooding probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point;

selecting a second flood occurrence point with a topography higher than the position point to be predicted according to at least one known flood occurrence point; calculating to obtain a second flooding probability corresponding to the second flood occurrence point according to the linear distance between the position point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point and the topography difference between the position point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point;

selecting a third flood occurrence point at an upper tuyere of the position point to be predicted according to at least one known flood occurrence point; according to the wind power in the space where the position point to be predicted and the third flood occurrence point are located, calculating to obtain a third flooding probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point;

synthesizing the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point to obtain an actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the position point to be predicted;

synthesizing the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point to obtain the actual flooding probability corresponding to the position point to be predicted;

the first flooding probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point is calculated according to the following formula:；

wherein,for a first flooding probability corresponding to a first flood occurrence point,/a first flooding probability is determined>For the corresponding flooding probability when the communication distance between the position point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point is 0, x is the communication distance between the position point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point, and m is an influence factor;

the corresponding first flood occurrence point is calculated by the following formulaSecond flooding probability:；

wherein,p is the topography difference between the position point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point, and q is the linear distance between the position point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point;

and calculating a third flooding probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point according to the following formula:；

wherein,for a third flooding probability corresponding to a third flood occurrence point,/a third flooding probability>And y is a probability adjustment factor, y is a wind power level in a space where the position point to be predicted and the third flood occurrence point are located, and n is an influence factor.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the integrating the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point, and the third flood occurrence point to obtain an actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the location point to be predicted further comprises:

taking the flood occurrence points related to the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point as actual flood occurrence points corresponding to the position points to be predicted; or (b)

And taking the flood occurrence points with the coincidence among the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point as actual flood occurrence points corresponding to the position points to be predicted.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the synthesizing the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability, and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point to obtain the actual flooding probability corresponding to the location point to be predicted further comprises:

taking the average value of the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point as the actual flooding probability corresponding to the position point to be predicted; or (b)

And according to the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point and the weight corresponding to each flooding probability, weighting and summing to obtain the actual flooding probability corresponding to the position point to be predicted.

4. A flood inundation risk prediction device, comprising:

the acquisition module is used for acquiring the position points to be predicted of the known position coordinates;

the first flooding probability calculation module is used for selecting a first flood occurrence point which is communicated with the position point to be predicted according to at least one known flood occurrence point; according to the communication distance between the position point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point, calculating to obtain a first flooding probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point;

the second flooding probability calculation module is used for selecting a second flood occurrence point with the topography higher than the position point to be predicted according to at least one known flood occurrence point; calculating to obtain a second flooding probability corresponding to the second flood occurrence point according to the linear distance between the position point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point and the topography difference between the position point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point;

the third flooding probability calculation module is used for selecting a third flood occurrence point which is positioned at the upper wind gap of the position point to be predicted according to at least one known flood occurrence point; according to the wind power in the space where the position point to be predicted and the third flood occurrence point are located, calculating to obtain a third flooding probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point;

the actual flood occurrence point determining module is used for integrating the first flood occurrence point, the second flood occurrence point and the third flood occurrence point to obtain an actual flood occurrence point corresponding to the position point to be predicted;

the actual flooding probability determining module is used for integrating the first flooding probability, the second flooding probability and the third flooding probability corresponding to the actual flood occurrence point to obtain the actual flooding probability corresponding to the position point to be predicted;

the first flooding probability corresponding to the first flood occurrence point is calculated according to the following formula:；

wherein,for a first flooding probability corresponding to a first flood occurrence point,/a first flooding probability is determined>For the corresponding flooding probability when the communication distance between the position point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point is 0, x is the communication distance between the position point to be predicted and the first flood occurrence point, and m is an influence factor;

and calculating a second flooding probability corresponding to the second flood occurrence point according to the following formula:；

wherein,p is the topography difference between the position point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point, and q is the linear distance between the position point to be predicted and the second flood occurrence point;

and calculating a third flooding probability corresponding to the third flood occurrence point according to the following formula:；

wherein,for a third flooding probability corresponding to a third flood occurrence point,/a third flooding probability>And y is a probability adjustment factor, y is a wind power level in a space where the position point to be predicted and the third flood occurrence point are located, and n is an influence factor.