CN116167162A - Reliability modeling method for train network control system - Google Patents
Reliability modeling method for train network control system Download PDFInfo
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- CN116167162A CN116167162A CN202310029388.7A CN202310029388A CN116167162A CN 116167162 A CN116167162 A CN 116167162A CN 202310029388 A CN202310029388 A CN 202310029388A CN 116167162 A CN116167162 A CN 116167162A
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Abstract
The invention relates to a reliability modeling method of a train network control system, which comprises the following steps: defining a system; establishing a system reliability block diagram; establishing a system reliability mathematical model; determining a unit reliability index; calculating a system reliability value; obtaining a reliability prediction conclusion; and (5) feedback design. The invention provides a method and a process suitable for modeling the reliability of a system in the process of integrating a railway vehicle system from the perspective of application of a reliable engineering technology, which can be used as the basis of the work such as reliability index distribution, reliability prediction and the like in the process of integrating and developing the railway train system, and can ensure that the railway vehicle system can meet the requirement of the reliability technical index in the process of delivering the vehicle.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of train network control systems, in particular to a reliability modeling method of a train network control system.
Background
In the past, the integrated design of the railway vehicle system simply considers the realization of functions, and the integrated design of the system can meet the requirement of realizing the functions, namely the integrated design index of the system. However, the continuous improvement of the running speed of the railway vehicle, the continuous increase of the running mileage length and the continuous improvement of the integration level of the railway vehicle, the technical requirement of system integration is not limited to the realization of simple functions, and the factors such as the failure rate of equipment running after system integration, the safety influence on train running after equipment failure after system integration, the difficulty of equipment maintenance after system integration and the like are all included in the technical index requirement system of the system integration, namely the technical index system of the RAMS (reliability, availability, safety and maintainability) of the system integration of the railway vehicle at present.
Reliability modeling is a method for estimating whether a design scheme of each level of product of an equipment system meets a prescribed reliability requirement. System reliability modeling is an important tool for analytical demonstration and determination of system and equipment reliability indicators, as well as for comprehensive assessment of system reliability. In order to determine the quantitative requirements of reliability of systems, subsystems and equipment, to perform reliability allocation and prediction, to complete reliability analysis and evaluation, a reliability model must be established. The reliability model is a description of the reliability/fault logic relationship between the system and its constituent elements. The reliability model comprises a reliability logic relationship graph and a corresponding mathematical model thereof.
The system reliability modeling aims at quantitatively distributing reliability, predicting reliability and evaluating reliability of products of each level of the system. The estimated value obtained by the model can provide basis for the following aspects:
(1) Analyzing, demonstrating and determining reliability indexes of the system, the subsystem and the equipment;
(2) Quantitatively indicating the reliability problems of the system, the subsystem and the equipment, and finding out weak links in the design to guide engineering design and development work;
(3) According to the estimated values provided by different periods, evaluating the reliability increase and taking the effectiveness of corrective measures, and providing information for implementing the staged and staged reliability increase;
(4) Providing necessary input information for the system design scheme;
(5) Providing necessary input information for system maintenance system and security analysis;
(6) The plausibility of the reliability index assignment is checked by means of reliability prediction.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problems in the prior art and provides a reliability modeling method for a train network control system.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a reliability modeling method of a train network control system comprises the following steps:
step 1: defining a system;
specifying system configuration and performance parameters of the train;
step 2: establishing a system reliability block diagram;
analyzing the fault logic relationship between the system and the unit from the reliability point of view;
step 3: establishing a system reliability mathematical model;
mathematically establishing a relation between a reliability block diagram and time, event and fault rate data, and expressing a reliability function relation between each unit of the system and the system by using a mathematical expression;
step 4: determining a unit reliability index;
predicting the reliability of the system by using a reliability mathematical model;
step 5: calculating a system reliability value;
step 6: obtaining a reliability prediction conclusion;
step 7: feedback design;
the reliability prediction conclusion is fed back into the design process.
In the above technical solution, the defining system in step 1 includes: product composition and working principle, task analysis, product function and working mode analysis, and fault criteria determination.
In the above technical solution, in step 3, the reliability value of the system is calculated from the reliability parameters of each unit according to the serial logic relationship by the system reliability mathematical model.
In the above technical solution, in step 4, the unit reliability index is calculated by: the electronic product reliability prediction method, the non-electronic product reliability prediction method, the similar product method, the expert scoring method, the outfield statistics or the test evaluation.
In the above technical solution, step 5 specifically includes:
if the reliability parameters of all the constituent units of the system are known, substituting the relevant parameters into the determined system reliability mathematical model, and calculating the reliability value of the system;
if the reliability parameters of the individual constituent elements of the system are not known, the reliability values of the system are calculated by determining the reliability parameters of the elements and then substituting them into the determined mathematical model of the system reliability.
In the above technical solution, step 6 specifically includes:
step 6.1, reliability prediction for the purpose of scheme comparison is carried out, reliability prediction values of a plurality of schemes are compared, and a scheme with optimal reliability is selected;
reliability prediction for the purpose of evaluating the system reliability level, judging whether the predicted value reaches a reliability specified value of the system maturity;
step 6.2, weak link analysis is carried out, and a system weak link is found;
and 6.3, proposing the opinion of improving the reliability of the product.
In the above technical solution, in step 6, if the constituent units of the system have reliability allocation values, the reliability prediction results of the constituent units are listed, and compared with the reliability allocation values, whether each constituent unit of the system meets the requirements determined by the reliability allocation is evaluated.
The invention provides a method and a process suitable for modeling the system reliability in the process of integrating a railway vehicle system from the application point of a reliable engineering technology, which provide a basis for the tasks of reliability index distribution, reliability prediction and the like in the process of integrating and developing the railway train system, and ensure that the railway vehicle system can meet the requirements of the reliability technical index in the process of delivering the vehicle.
Drawings
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the drawings and the detailed description.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for modeling the reliability of a train network control system according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The invention relates to a reliability modeling method of a train network control system, which is shown in figure 1 and comprises the following steps:
step 1, defining a system;
depending on modeling purposes, reliability models can be categorized into basic reliability models and mission reliability models. Reliability modeling includes: reliability block diagram and reliability mathematical model. Wherein:
the basic reliability model is used for estimating maintenance and guarantee requirements caused by faults of the system and the constituent units of the system, and can be used as a model for measuring maintenance and guarantee manpower and cost. The basic reliability model is a full series model, and all the units constituting the system should be included in the model. The basic reliability is expected to be an estimate of maintenance and warranty requirements resulting from unreliable systems and their constituent units.
The task reliability model is used for measuring the probability that the system completes a specified function in the process of executing the task, and describes the preset function of each unit of the system in the process of completing the task and measures the working effectiveness. The task reliability model may be a complex combination of multiple models in series, parallel, voting, bypassing, bridging, etc. Task reliability is expected to be an estimate of the probability of the system to complete a given task.
When defining a system, first, the system configuration, performance parameters, and the like of a train are defined. For the basic reliability model, mainly all units (including redundant units and units that replace work) constituting the system are defined, namely all systems, subsystems and devices constituting the whole train; for the task reliability model, various aspects related to the system constitution, principle, function, interface, task fault criteria and the like must be described in more detail.
The complete definition system includes four aspects: product constitution and working principle, task analysis, product function and working mode analysis and fault criterion determination.
1.1 product composition and working principle
The system composition structure of the train is preliminarily determined according to the current stage, and the lowest level (such as equipment) of the system, which can obtain clear technical requirements (especially reliability data) currently, is clear, which is new research or improvement product, which is shelf product and which is matched product to determine the level of reliability prediction, and a tree structure of the expected level is established. In the prediction calculation process, a feasible prediction method is selected according to specific conditions for predicting new or improved products, the reliability index value of the product can be directly utilized for shelf products, and the reliability requirement value of the matched products can be referred to and utilized.
1.2 task analysis
Determining which tasks need to be completed in the whole life cycle of the train; for a certain task, it is referred to which functions of the system are involved and those necessary functions are screened out.
The product can typically be used to perform a variety of tasks throughout its lifetime. The required functions of each task are different, so that the function analysis is carried out for each task, and a reliability model of the corresponding task is established.
(1) Task profile
A task profile is a time-series description of events and circumstances that a product experiences during the time that a specified task is completed. The task profile illustrates events and conditions related to a system-specific usage process. The task profile should be presented when the system index is demonstrated. Accurately and relatively completely determining the task events and expected usage environment of the system is the basis for performing a correct system reliability design analysis.
(2) Life profile
The life profile is a time series description of all events and circumstances experienced by a product from manufacture to end of life or out of use. The life section illustrates the events (e.g., loading, transporting, storing, detecting, repairing, deploying, performing tasks, etc.) that a product experiences over its life, as well as the sequence, duration, environment, and manner of operation of each event. It contains one or more task profiles.
(3) Environmental profile
The environmental profile is a time-series description of environmental characteristics that have an impact on the use or survival of the product, such as temperature, humidity, pressure, salt spray, radiation, dust and vibration, impact, noise, electromagnetic interference, and the like, and the intensity thereof. The environmental profile describes the specific intrinsic and induced environments (nominal and worst case) associated with an operation, event or function. The system may be used in more than one environment and a particular task may consist of several phases of operation, for example, the satellite being launched, orbiting, returned to the atmosphere, recovered and its corresponding particular environment constituting each phase of operation.
1.3 analysis of product functionality and working modes
The purpose of describing the functions of the product is to clarify the functional relationships among the units constituting the product system, and the functional relationships mainly comprise functional hierarchical relationships, functional interface relationships, working modes and working time sequences of the units.
The functions of the system are realized by the functions of all units forming the system in a layering way, and the function hierarchical structure of the system can be obtained through a function decomposition process from top to bottom. In the process of system function decomposition, the input and output of each function should be defined.
The operation mode analysis is to determine the operation mode of the system under a specific task or function and whether an alternative operation mode exists.
1.4 determination of fault criteria
In order to establish the fault criteria of the system, the performance parameters and the allowable limits of the system and the subsystems thereof should be specified, and the physical limits and the functional interfaces of the system should be determined.
When defining the performance parameters and the allowable limits of the system and its subsystems, a parameter list or chart should be created, and the upper and lower limits allowed by these parameters should be defined.
The fault criteria are limits for determining whether a system constitutes a fault, and should generally be determined based on system-specified performance parameters and allowable limits, physical limits of the system, and functional interfaces.
Step 2, establishing a system reliability block diagram;
the functional block diagram of the system is the basis for building a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) of the system. The functional block diagram of the system describes the interrelationship between functions and sub-functions, and the flow of data (information) of the system and interfaces inside the system on the basis of static grouping of the functions of the layers of the system.
The reliability block diagram is a fault logic relation diagram between an analysis system and a unit from the reliability point of view, and the diagram draws the influence on the system function when each part of the system breaks down by means of the arrangement of blocks and wires.
Step 3, establishing a system reliability mathematical model;
the reliability mathematical model mathematically builds a reliability block diagram with respect to time, event and fault rate data. The reliability function relation between each unit of the system and the system is expressed by a mathematical expression, so that the reliability value of the system is solved.
The establishment of the reliability mathematical model should take the following 4 aspects into consideration:
(1) The reliability logic relationship among the units of the system, namely the logic relationship of series connection, association and the like.
(2) The homogeneity of the constituent units of the system, i.e. whether they are identical.
(3) The reliability characteristic quantity (such as failure rate lambda) and the distribution of each component unit of the system.
(4) If converters and voters are arranged in the system, the influence of the converters and voters on the system is considered.
When the basic reliability model of the system is built, the reliability block diagram is the series connection of the units, so that the reliability mathematical model of the system calculates the reliability value of the system according to the logic relationship of the series connection by the reliability parameters of the units.
Step 4, determining a unit reliability index;
when the reliability index of each component unit of the system is not completely known, the reliability index of the unit should be determined first, so that the reliability of the system can be predicted by using a reliability mathematical model.
The reliability index of the unit can be obtained by a unit reliability prediction method (including an electronic product reliability prediction method and a non-electronic product reliability prediction method), a similar product method, an expert evaluation method, outfield statistics, test evaluation, even referring to reliability allocation values or engineering experience and other approaches. Depending on the different conditions of the system, different determination methods should be selected.
Step 5, calculating a system reliability value;
if the reliability parameters of all the constituent units of the system are known, directly substituting the related parameters into the determined system reliability mathematical model, and calculating the reliability value of the system.
If the reliability parameters of all units in the system are not known, the reliability values of the system are calculated by determining the reliability parameters of the units and then substituting them into the determined system reliability mathematical model.
Step 6, obtaining a reliability prediction conclusion;
the reliability prediction conclusions are drawn according to different purposes, generally comprising:
step 6.1, reliability prediction for scheme comparison is carried out, reliability prediction values of a plurality of schemes are compared, and a scheme with optimal reliability is selected; reliability prediction for the purpose of evaluating the reliability level of a system is to judge whether or not a predicted value reaches a reliability prescribed value of the system maturity.
If the constituent units of the system have reliability assignments, the reliability prediction results of these constituent units should be listed and compared with their reliability assignments to evaluate whether the respective constituent units of the system meet the requirements determined by the reliability assignments.
And 6.2, performing weak link analysis to find out a system weak link.
And 6.3, proposing opinion and suggestion for improving the reliability of the product. This should be done whether the product reliability level has reached the reliability specification for the maturity stage of the product. If possible, an improved analysis of the level of reliability that can be achieved should be provided. For example, product reliability at different ambient temperatures can be predicted as one of the bases for developing thermal designs.
Step 7, feedback design;
and feeding back the reliability prediction conclusion to the design process, and integrating other work conclusion, so that the reliability prediction result can be reflected to the design of the system, and finally, the aim of improving the reliability of the system is fulfilled.
The invention provides a method and a process suitable for modeling the system reliability in the process of integrating a railway vehicle system from the application point of a reliable engineering technology, which provide a basis for the tasks of reliability index distribution, reliability prediction and the like in the process of integrating and developing the railway train system, and ensure that the railway vehicle system can meet the requirements of the reliability technical index in the process of delivering the vehicle.
It is apparent that the above examples are given by way of illustration only and are not limiting of the embodiments. Other variations or modifications of the above teachings will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art. It is not necessary here nor is it exhaustive of all embodiments. While still being apparent from variations or modifications that may be made by those skilled in the art are within the scope of the invention.
Claims (7)
1. The reliability modeling method of the train network control system is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1: defining a system;
specifying system configuration and performance parameters of the train;
step 2: establishing a system reliability block diagram;
analyzing the fault logic relationship between the system and the unit from the reliability point of view;
step 3: establishing a system reliability mathematical model;
mathematically establishing a relation between a reliability block diagram and time, event and fault rate data, and expressing a reliability function relation between each unit of the system and the system by using a mathematical expression;
step 4: determining a unit reliability index;
predicting the reliability of the system by using a reliability mathematical model;
step 5: calculating a system reliability value;
step 6: obtaining a reliability prediction conclusion;
step 7: feedback design;
the reliability prediction conclusion is fed back into the design process.
2. The method for modeling reliability of a train network control system according to claim 1, wherein the defining system in step 1 comprises: product composition and working principle, task analysis, product function and working mode analysis, and fault criteria determination.
3. The method for modeling reliability of train network control system according to claim 1, wherein in step 3, the system reliability mathematical model calculates the reliability value of the system from the reliability parameters of each unit according to the logical relationship of series connection.
4. The method for modeling reliability of a train network control system according to claim 1, wherein in step 4, the unit reliability index is calculated by: the electronic product reliability prediction method, the non-electronic product reliability prediction method, the similar product method, the expert scoring method, the outfield statistics or the test evaluation.
5. The method for modeling the reliability of a train network control system according to claim 1, wherein the step 5 is specifically:
if the reliability parameters of all the constituent units of the system are known, substituting the relevant parameters into the determined system reliability mathematical model, and calculating the reliability value of the system;
if the reliability parameters of the individual constituent elements of the system are not known, the reliability values of the system are calculated by determining the reliability parameters of the elements and then substituting them into the determined mathematical model of the system reliability.
6. The method for modeling reliability of a train network control system according to claim 1, wherein step 6 specifically comprises:
step 6.1, reliability prediction for the purpose of scheme comparison is carried out, reliability prediction values of a plurality of schemes are compared, and a scheme with optimal reliability is selected;
reliability prediction for the purpose of evaluating the system reliability level, judging whether the predicted value reaches a reliability specified value of the system maturity;
step 6.2, weak link analysis is carried out, and a system weak link is found;
and 6.3, proposing the opinion of improving the reliability of the product.
7. The method for modeling the reliability of a train network control system according to claim 6, wherein in step 6, if the constituent units of the system have reliability assignment values, the reliability prediction results of the constituent units are listed, and compared with the reliability assignment values, whether each constituent unit of the system meets the requirements determined by the reliability assignment is evaluated.
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