CN115512531B - A multi-monitoring point fusion early warning method for landslide hazards based on deformation order - Google Patents
A multi-monitoring point fusion early warning method for landslide hazards based on deformation order Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及地质灾害监测技术领域,具体涉及一种基于形变有序性的滑坡灾害多监测点融合预警方法。The invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster monitoring, in particular to a multi-monitoring point fusion early warning method for landslide disasters based on deformation orderliness.
背景技术Background technique
滑坡的监测预警是滑坡灾害由“事后救助”向“事前预防”转变的关键环节,如何提升滑坡预警预报的可靠性是滑坡监测预警工作的重点和难点。当前主流的监测预警主要以滑坡位移作为主要参数,在预警过程中则主要采用单个监测点的形变时间曲线进行预警。由于单一曲线往往仅能代表监测点局部附近很小范围内的变形情况,而无法反应整个坡体的变形特性,从而往往出现误报、漏报的现象。因此,如何综合利用同一滑坡体上不同监测点的形变特征,做到多监测点的融合利用,从滑坡整体角度进行预警预报,从而避免现有预警预报方法的疏漏和不足,是新形势下滑坡监测预警需要解决的紧迫问题。Landslide monitoring and early warning is a key link in the transformation of landslide disasters from "post-rescue" to "pre-prevention". How to improve the reliability of landslide early warning and forecast is the key and difficult point of landslide monitoring and early warning. The current mainstream monitoring and early warning mainly uses landslide displacement as the main parameter, and in the early warning process, the deformation time curve of a single monitoring point is mainly used for early warning. Since a single curve can only represent the deformation in a small range near the monitoring point, but cannot reflect the deformation characteristics of the entire slope, there are often false positives and negative negatives. Therefore, how to comprehensively utilize the deformation characteristics of different monitoring points on the same landslide body, achieve the fusion and utilization of multiple monitoring points, and carry out early warning and forecasting from the perspective of the overall landslide, so as to avoid the omissions and shortcomings of the existing early warning and forecasting methods, is a key issue for landslides in the new situation. Urgent issues that need to be addressed in monitoring and early warning.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明意在提供一种滑坡灾害多监测点融合预警方法,以解决单个监测点的形变曲线进行预警的疏漏和不足。The present invention intends to provide a multi-monitoring-point fusion early-warning method for landslide disasters, so as to solve the omissions and deficiencies in the early-warning of the deformation curve of a single monitoring point.
为达到上述目的,本发明采用如下技术方案:一种基于形变有序性的滑坡灾害多监测点融合预警方法,包括以下步骤:In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme: a multi-monitoring point fusion early warning method for landslide disaster based on deformation orderliness, comprising the following steps:
S1:获取滑坡多个监测点的监测传感器预设时刻的形变速率;S1: Obtain the deformation rate of the monitoring sensor at the preset time of multiple monitoring points of the landslide;
S2:根据形变速率计算获得形变速率信息熵HV(t);S2: Calculate and obtain the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) according to the deformation rate;
S3:根据地形地貌特征获取滑坡变形主方向,即目标形变方向;S3: Obtain the main direction of landslide deformation according to the topographic features, that is, the target deformation direction;
S4:获取各监测点形变方向,即监测形变方向;S4: Obtain the deformation direction of each monitoring point, that is, the monitoring deformation direction;
S5:计算监测形变方向和目标形变方向的形变方向关联熵HD(t);S5: Calculate the deformation direction correlation entropy H D (t) of the monitored deformation direction and the target deformation direction;
S6:根据形变速率信息熵HV(t)的状态和形变方向关联熵HD(t)的状态,获取滑坡预警等级。S6: According to the state of the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) and the state of the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t), obtain the landslide warning level.
优选的,作为一种改进,所述根据形变速率计算获取形变速率信息熵的具体步骤包括:根据形变速率的大小进行分组,并获取形变速率组间距L;获取形变速率组内每个形变速率在当前形变速率组内出现的概率Pi(t);计算多个监测传感器的预设时刻形变速率的形变速率信息熵。Preferably, as an improvement, the specific step of calculating and obtaining deformation rate information entropy according to the deformation rate includes: grouping according to the size of the deformation rate, and obtaining the distance L of the deformation rate group; obtaining the distance between each deformation rate in the deformation rate group The probability Pi(t) of occurrence in the current deformation rate group; calculating the deformation rate information entropy of the deformation rates at preset moments of the plurality of monitoring sensors.
优选的,作为一种改进,所述形变速率组间距L为:Preferably, as an improvement, the deformation rate group spacing L is:
其中,xmax,xmin分别为监测点形变速率的最大和最小值,K为形变速率分组数。Among them, x max and x min are the maximum and minimum values of the deformation rate of the monitoring point respectively, and K is the number of deformation rate groups.
优选的,作为一种改进,所述形变速率组内每个形变速率在当前形变速率组内出现的概率Pi(t)为:Preferably, as an improvement, the probability Pi(t) that each deformation rate in the deformation rate group appears in the current deformation rate group is:
其中,Ni(t)为预设时刻形变速率落在第i个分组区间内的监测传感器数量,N为监测传感器总数。Among them, N i (t) is the number of monitoring sensors whose deformation rate falls within the i grouping interval at the preset time, and N is the total number of monitoring sensors.
优选的,作为一种改进,所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)具体为:Preferably, as an improvement, the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) is specifically:
其中,i表示第i个形变速率的分组。where i represents the grouping of the ith deformation rate.
优选的,作为一种改进,所述根据形变速率的大小进行分组具体包括:根据监测传感器数量确定分组数,根据分组数和形变速率的大小对形变速率进行分组。Preferably, as an improvement, the grouping according to the magnitude of the deformation rate specifically includes: determining the number of groups according to the number of monitoring sensors, and grouping the deformation rates according to the number of groups and the magnitude of the deformation rate.
优选的,作为一种改进,所述形变方向关联熵HD(t)具体为:Preferably, as an improvement, the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) is specifically:
其中,i表示第i个监测点,pi为关联系数概率,N为监测传感器总数。Among them, i represents the i-th monitoring point, p i is the probability of the correlation coefficient, and N is the total number of monitoring sensors.
优选的,作为一种改进,所述计算监测形变方向和目标形变方向的形变方向关联熵HD(t)具体包括:根据方位角表达监测形变方向序列和目标形变方向序列;对监测形变方向序列和目标形变方向序列进行归一化处理;对归一化处理后的监测形变方向序列和目标形变方向序列进行灰关联度计算;就根据灰关联度计算关联系数概率分布;根据关联系数概率分布计算形变方向关联熵HD(t)。Preferably, as an improvement, the calculation of the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) of the monitoring deformation direction and the target deformation direction specifically includes: expressing the monitoring deformation direction sequence and the target deformation direction sequence according to the azimuth angle; Perform normalization processing with the target deformation direction sequence; calculate the gray correlation degree between the normalized monitoring deformation direction sequence and the target deformation direction sequence; calculate the probability distribution of the correlation coefficient according to the gray correlation degree; calculate the probability distribution of the correlation coefficient according to the gray correlation degree Deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t).
优选的,作为一种改进,所述预警等级包括:蓝色预警、黄色预警、橙色预警和红色预警。Preferably, as an improvement, the warning levels include: blue warning, yellow warning, orange warning and red warning.
优选的,作为一种改进,所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态包括SHV-1、SHV-2和SHV-3,其中,所述SHV-1表示形变速率信息熵HV(t)随时间的变化平稳发展或围绕中轴线上下波动,无明显的增加或降低趋势,所述SHV-2表示形变速率信息熵HV(t)随时间的变化具有明显的下降趋势,所述SHV-3表示形变速率信息熵HV(t)随时间的变化持续保持下降趋势,且逐步逼近于零;Preferably, as an improvement, the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) states include SH V -1, SH V -2 and SH V -3, wherein the SH V -1 represents the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) develops steadily or fluctuates up and down around the central axis with time, and there is no obvious increase or decrease trend. The SH V -2 indicates that the change of deformation rate information entropy H V (t) has an obvious downward trend over time , the SH V -3 means that the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) keeps a downward trend over time, and gradually approaches zero;
所述形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态SHD-1、SHD-2、SHD-3表示,其中,所述SHD-1表示形变方向关联熵HD(t)随时间的变化平稳发展或围绕中轴线上下波动,无明显的增加或降低趋势,所述SHD-2表示形变方向关联熵HD(t)随时间的变化具有明显的上升趋势,所述SHD-3表示形变方向关联熵HD(t)随时间的变化持续保持上升趋势,且逐步逼近于-ln(1/N),其中N为为同一滑坡体上的监测传感器数量;The deformation direction associated entropy HD (t) states SH D -1, SH D -2, SH D -3 represent, wherein, the SH D -1 represents the change of deformation direction associated entropy HD (t) with time Develop steadily or fluctuate up and down around the central axis, without obvious increase or decrease trend, said SH D -2 means that the change of deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) has a clear upward trend over time, and said SH D -3 means The deformation direction correlation entropy H D (t) keeps increasing with time, and gradually approaches -ln(1/N), where N is the number of monitoring sensors on the same landslide mass;
所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-1和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-1时,所述预警等级为蓝色预警;所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-1和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-2时或所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-2和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-1时,所述预警等级为黄色预警;所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-1和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-3时、所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-2和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-2时或所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-3和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-1时,所述预警等级为橙色预警;所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-2和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-3时、所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-3和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-2时或所述形变速率信息熵HV(t)状态为SHV-3和形变方向关联熵HD(t)状态为SHD-3时,所述预警等级为红色预警。When the state of the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) is SH V -1 and the state of the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) is SH D -1, the warning level is blue warning; the deformation rate information entropy When the H V (t) state is SH V -1 and the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) is SH D -2, or the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) state is SH V -2 and the deformation direction correlation When the entropy HD (t) state is SH D -1, the warning level is yellow warning; the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) state is SH V -1 and deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) state When SH D -3, the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) state is SH V -2 and the deformation direction correlation entropy H D (t) state is SH D -2 or the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) When the state is SH V -3 and the deformation direction correlation entropy H D (t) state is SH D -1, the warning level is orange warning; the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) state is SH V -2 and deformation direction correlation entropy H D (t) state is SH D -3, the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) state is SH V -3 and deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) state is SH When D -2 or when the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) state is SH V -3 and the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) state is SH D -3, the warning level is red warning.
本方案利用同一滑坡体上不同监测点的形变速率和形变方向特征,做到多监测点的融合利用,从滑坡的整体角度进行预警预报,从而避免现有预警预报方法的疏漏和不足;滑坡在进入加速变形阶段时对地表起控制作用的是滑坡的整体运动,局部微地貌控制作用明显减弱,此时地表的变形趋于有序,根据有序性演化过程可以对滑坡变形破坏阶段进行定量描述,从而可以根据有序性进行滑坡预警,本方案利用监测传感器的获取滑坡的形变速率,通过形变速率有序性演化过程来对滑坡变形阶段进行定量描述,同时选取确认主滑方向作为目标方向,根据监测点监测得到的形变方向与主滑方向的关联程度来表示形变方向有序性,再结合形变速率有序性和形变方向有序性,建立预警依据,与现有的预警模型形成互补,提升灾害预警预报的可靠性和准确性;利用滑坡形变的两个重要参数:形变速率和形变方向两个参数,参数较少,能够描述滑坡变形破坏阶段且减少预警误差。This scheme uses the deformation rate and deformation direction characteristics of different monitoring points on the same landslide to achieve the integration and utilization of multiple monitoring points, and carry out early warning and forecasting from the overall perspective of the landslide, so as to avoid the omissions and deficiencies of the existing early warning and forecasting methods; When entering the stage of accelerated deformation, it is the overall movement of the landslide that controls the surface, and the control effect of the local microtopography is obviously weakened. At this time, the deformation of the surface tends to be orderly. According to the orderly evolution process, the deformation and failure stage of the landslide can be quantitatively described , so that the landslide early warning can be carried out according to the order. This scheme uses the monitoring sensor to obtain the deformation rate of the landslide, and quantitatively describes the deformation stage of the landslide through the orderly evolution process of the deformation rate. At the same time, the main sliding direction is selected as the target direction. According to the degree of correlation between the deformation direction and the main sliding direction obtained by the monitoring points, the order of the deformation direction is represented, and combined with the order of the deformation rate and the order of the deformation direction, an early warning basis is established, which is complementary to the existing early warning model. Improve the reliability and accuracy of disaster early warning and forecasting; use two important parameters of landslide deformation: deformation rate and deformation direction, with fewer parameters, which can describe the stage of landslide deformation and failure and reduce early warning errors.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1为本发明实施例的形变速率求取示意图。Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of calculating deformation rate according to an embodiment of the present invention.
图2为本发明实施例的形变方向计算示意图。Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of deformation direction calculation according to an embodiment of the present invention.
图3为本发明实施例的示例滑坡的图3为形变速率信息熵随时序演化过程曲线。Fig. 3 is an example landslide according to the embodiment of the present invention. Fig. 3 is a time-series evolution curve of deformation rate information entropy.
图4为本发明实施例的合位移方向计算示意图。Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of calculation of a combined displacement direction according to an embodiment of the present invention.
图5为本发明实施例的形变速率信息熵HV(t)随时间的变化图。Fig. 5 is a diagram showing the variation of deformation rate information entropy H V (t) with time according to the embodiment of the present invention.
图6为本发明实施例的形变方向关联熵HD(t)随时间的变化图。Fig. 6 is a diagram showing the variation of deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) with time according to the embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面通过具体实施方式进一步详细说明:The following is further described in detail through specific implementation methods:
实施例:Example:
一种基于形变有序性的滑坡灾害多监测点融合预警方法,具体包括以下步骤:A multi-monitoring-point fusion early-warning method for landslide hazards based on deformation orderliness, which specifically includes the following steps:
S1:获取滑坡多个监测点的监测传感器预设时刻的形变速率;S1: Obtain the deformation rate of the monitoring sensor at the preset time of multiple monitoring points of the landslide;
完整的滑坡监测数据分为初始变形阶段、等速变形阶段、加速变形阶段。在滑坡变形破坏过程中,形变速率是表征滑坡稳定状态的一个重要参数,当某一滑坡表面所安装的位移传感设备达到一定的规模,符合统计条件,则可以从统计学角度对滑坡总体形变速率有序性进行分析。具体过程如下:The complete landslide monitoring data is divided into initial deformation stage, constant velocity deformation stage and accelerated deformation stage. In the process of landslide deformation and failure, the deformation rate is an important parameter to characterize the stable state of the landslide. When the displacement sensing equipment installed on the surface of a landslide reaches a certain scale and meets the statistical conditions, the overall deformation of the landslide can be analyzed statistically. The rate order is analyzed. The specific process is as follows:
提取某一时刻不同监测传感器的形变速率,具体过程如图1所示;Extract the deformation rate of different monitoring sensors at a certain moment, the specific process is shown in Figure 1;
首先在滑坡变形时序曲线上,按照固定的时间段(一般以天或小时为单位进行计算),在时间轴上将时间位移曲线划分为若干小段,计算t时刻的形变速率时,提取(t-△t,t)时间段内的形变增量△S,则t时刻形变速率为:Firstly, on the time series curve of landslide deformation, according to a fixed period of time (usually calculated in days or hours), the time displacement curve is divided into several small segments on the time axis, and when calculating the deformation rate at time t, extract (t- △t, t) the deformation increment △S in the time period, then the deformation rate at time t is:
S2:利用形变速率,对形变速率大小进行分组,组数采用美国学者斯特吉斯提出的经验公式,即:S2: Use the deformation rate to group the deformation rate. The number of groups adopts the empirical formula proposed by the American scholar Sturgess, namely:
K=1+3.322×log(N) (2)K=1+3.322×log(N) (2)
式中:K为形变速率分组数,N为同一滑坡体上的监测传感器数量。上述计算结果存在小数的,按照四舍五入规则处理。In the formula: K is the number of deformation rate groups, and N is the number of monitoring sensors on the same landslide. If there are decimals in the above calculation results, they shall be processed according to the rounding rules.
S21:根据形变速率组数,求组间距,即:S21: Calculate the group spacing according to the number of deformation rate groups, namely:
式中:L为形变速率组间距,xmax,xmin分别为监测点形变速率的最大和最小值;In the formula: L is the distance between the deformation rate groups, x max and x min are the maximum and minimum values of the deformation rate of the monitoring points, respectively;
S22:根据速率分组结果,统计每一区间内,形变速率在该区间内的传感器数量,并计算该区间内的概率,即:S22: According to the rate grouping results, count the number of sensors whose deformation rate is in the interval in each interval, and calculate the probability in the interval, namely:
式中:Pi(t)为t时刻第i个分组区间内形变速率出现的概率,Ni(t)为t时刻形变速率落在第i个分组区间内的传感器数量,N为传感器总数。In the formula: P i (t) is the probability of deformation rate appearing in the i-th group interval at time t, N i (t) is the number of sensors whose deformation rate falls in the i-th group interval at time t, and N is the total number of sensors.
S23:引入信息熵理论,定量计算某一时刻形变速率有序性:S23: Introduce the information entropy theory to quantitatively calculate the order of deformation rate at a certain moment:
S24:对0~t整个时间段内任意一个时刻t分别计算有序性,则可获得形变速率有序性随时间演化过程曲线。S24: Calculate the orderliness at any time t in the entire time period from 0 to t, and then obtain the evolution process curve of deformation rate orderliness with time.
以下是获得形变速率有序性随时间演化过程曲线其中一个示例,例如某一滑坡上设有20个形变监测点,以周为时间单位计算,统计从计算当周起前10周的形变速率情况,按照式(1)对每一天的形变速率进行计算,得到最大最小形变速率统计如下:The following is an example of obtaining the evolution curve of deformation rate order over time. For example, there are 20 deformation monitoring points on a landslide, calculated in weeks, and the deformation rate of the first 10 weeks from the calculation week is counted. , calculate the deformation rate of each day according to formula (1), and obtain the maximum and minimum deformation rate statistics as follows:
式中,t0表示当周,t1表示计算时间前1周,以此类推。In the formula, t 0 represents the current week, t 1 represents the week before the calculation time, and so on.
(1)则根据上述信息可知N=20,相应的按照式(2)可得到分组数K=5.322,取K=5。(1) According to the above information, it can be known that N=20, correspondingly according to formula (2), the number of groups K=5.322 can be obtained, and K=5.
分别建立t0~t9共计10周内形变速率直方图,以t0为例进行说明。The histograms of deformation rates within 10 weeks from t 0 to t 9 were respectively established, and t 0 was taken as an example for illustration.
(2)首先根据式(3)及表1,计算t0时刻直方图组间距,L0:(2) First, according to formula (3) and Table 1, calculate the distance between the histogram groups at time t 0 , L 0 :
(3)于是可以建立t0时刻的分组规则:(3) Then the grouping rules at time t 0 can be established:
[1.2~1.6)、[1.6~2.0)、[2.0~2.4)、2.4~2.8)、[2.8~3.2][1.2~1.6), [1.6~2.0), [2.0~2.4), 2.4~2.8), [2.8~3.2]
(4)根据上述分组规则,按照式(4)统计行不速率出现在各个区间内的频率,P1(t0)、P2(t0)、P3(t0)、P4(t0)、P5(t0),通过计算得到:P1(t0)=0.15、P2(t0)=0.14、P3(t0)=0.36、P4(t0)=0.21、P5(t0)=0.14。(4) According to the above grouping rules, according to the formula (4) to count the frequency of the speed in each interval, P 1 (t 0 ), P 2 (t 0 ), P 3 (t 0 ), P 4 (t 0 ), P 5 (t 0 ), obtained by calculation: P 1 (t 0 )=0.15, P 2 (t 0 )=0.14, P 3 (t 0 )=0.36, P 4 (t 0 )=0.21, P 5 (t 0 )=0.14.
(5)根据式(5)计算t0时刻形变速率信息熵:(5) Calculate the deformation rate information entropy at time t 0 according to formula (5):
(6)依次对t0、t1、t2、t3、t4、t5、t6、t7、t8、t9时刻的形变速率信息熵进行计算得到形变速率有序性随时间演化曲线,具体如图3所示,图3为形变速率信息熵随时序演化过程曲线。(6) Calculate the deformation rate information entropy at time t 0 , t 1 , t 2 , t 3 , t 4 , t 5 , t 6 , t 7 , t 8 , and t 9 to obtain The evolution curve is specifically shown in Figure 3, and Figure 3 is the evolution process curve of the deformation rate information entropy over time.
S3:根据地形地貌特征获取滑坡变形主方向,即目标形变方向。S3: Obtain the main direction of landslide deformation, that is, the target deformation direction, according to the topographic features.
对于典型地质灾害而言,在调查过程中通常会确定一个主滑方向,此主滑方向可以作为我们的目标方向。For typical geological disasters, a main slip direction is usually determined during the investigation process, and this main slip direction can be used as our target direction.
S4:获取各监测点形变方向,即监测形变方向;S4: Obtain the deformation direction of each monitoring point, that is, the monitoring deformation direction;
根据各监测点监测得到的形变方向与主滑方向的关联程度来表示形变方向有序性,显然,关联程度越大,形变方向系统有序性更强,根据灰色理论,这一关联性可用灰关联系数来表示。According to the degree of correlation between the deformation direction and the main sliding direction obtained at each monitoring point, the order of the deformation direction is expressed. Obviously, the greater the degree of correlation, the stronger the order of the deformation direction system. According to the gray theory, this correlation can be obtained by gray Represented by the correlation coefficient.
S51:在进行有序性分析过程中,仅考虑平面方向,按照S1中形变速率求解时所确定的时间间隔,通过矢量计算,得到形变平面合方向,并以空间方位角表示。S51: In the process of orderly analysis, only the direction of the plane is considered, and according to the time interval determined when the deformation rate is solved in S1, through vector calculation, the combined direction of the deformation plane is obtained, and it is expressed by the spatial azimuth.
传感器上直接获取的形变增量包括x方向的形变增量ΔSx和y方向的形变增量ΔSy结合图4(合位移方向计算示意图)可以通过计算得到合位移方向角α:The deformation increment directly acquired on the sensor includes the deformation increment ΔSx in the x direction and the deformation increment ΔSy in the y direction. Combined with Figure 4 (schematic diagram for calculating the combined displacement direction), the combined displacement direction angle α can be obtained by calculation:
当ΔSx>0且ΔSy≥0,则为第一象限,此时合位移方向角α=α;When ΔS x >0 and ΔS y ≥0, it is the first quadrant, and the resultant displacement direction angle α=α;
当ΔSx<0且ΔSy≥0,则为第二象限,此时和位移方向角α=180°-α;When ΔS x <0 and ΔS y ≥0, it is the second quadrant, and at this time the sum displacement direction angle α=180°-α;
当ΔSx<0且ΔSy<0,则为第三象限,此时和位移方向角α=180°+α;When ΔS x <0 and ΔS y <0, it is the third quadrant, and at this time the sum displacement direction angle α=180°+α;
当ΔSx>0且ΔSy<0,则为第四象限,此时和位移方向角α=360°-α;When ΔS x >0 and ΔS y <0, it is the fourth quadrant, and at this time the sum displacement direction angle α=360°-α;
当ΔSx=0且ΔSy>0,则α=90°;When ΔS x =0 and ΔS y >0, then α=90°;
当ΔSx=0且ΔSy<0,则α=270°;When ΔS x =0 and ΔS y <0, then α=270°;
S52:形变方向序列表达:设x=(x1,x2,…,xN)为某一时刻t灾害体上各监测点构成的形变方向序列,y=(y1,y2,…,yN)为目标形变方向序列,此处的y1=y2=,…,yN=y*,y*为滑坡的主滑方向。形变方向以方位角表示,由于方位角范围在0~360°之间,各监测点形变方向与主滑方向的差异不能完全按照普通数列来处理,具体如如图2所示。S52: Deformation direction sequence expression: Let x=(x 1 ,x 2 ,…,x N ) be the deformation direction sequence formed by each monitoring point on the disaster body at a certain time t, y=(y 1 ,y 2 ,…, y N ) is the target deformation direction sequence, where y 1 =y 2 =,...,y N =y*, y* is the main sliding direction of the landslide. The deformation direction is represented by the azimuth angle. Since the azimuth angle ranges from 0 to 360°, the difference between the deformation direction of each monitoring point and the main sliding direction cannot be completely processed according to the ordinary sequence, as shown in Figure 2.
当方位角x未超过y*+180°时,x与y*的角度差可以直接将二者相减,而当x超过y*+180°时,x与y*的差值实际上应该为x-360°后再与y*作差。于是可将x形变序列划分为两个部分,即:When the azimuth x does not exceed y*+180°, the angle difference between x and y* can be directly subtracted from the two, and when x exceeds y*+180°, the difference between x and y* should actually be After x-360°, make difference with y*. Then the x deformation sequence can be divided into two parts, namely:
S53:形变方向归一化处理:对形变方向观测值序列x=(x1,x2,…,xN)和目标方向序列y=(y1,y2,…,yN)作归一化处理,结果如下:S53: Deformation direction normalization processing: normalize the deformation direction observation sequence x=(x 1 ,x 2 ,…,x N ) and target direction sequence y=(y 1 ,y 2 ,…,y N ) processing, the result is as follows:
式中:xi为t时刻第i个监测点的形变方向值,xmin,xmax分别为t时刻监测点方向的最大最小值。显然,对于目标方向序列y,由于各监测点的目标方向均为滑坡主滑方向,因此其无量纲化后的结果为全为1,即:y′i=1。In the formula: x i is the deformation direction value of the i-th monitoring point at time t, and x min and x max are the maximum and minimum values of the direction of the monitoring point at time t, respectively. Obviously, for the target direction sequence y, since the target direction of each monitoring point is the main sliding direction of the landslide, the result after dimensionless is all 1, that is: y′ i =1.
S54:灰关联度计算:t时刻序列x'和y'的灰关联系数表示为:S54: Calculation of gray correlation degree: the gray correlation coefficient of sequence x' and y' at time t is expressed as:
式中:Δ(min)=min(|x′i-y′i|),Δ(max)=max(|x′i-y′i|),0<ρ<1为分辨系数,通过调节该值可以改变关联系数的显著性,这里取ρ=0.5。In the formula: Δ(min)=min(|x′ i -y′ i |), Δ(max)=max(|x′ i -y′ i |), 0<ρ<1 is the resolution coefficient, by adjusting This value can change the significance of the correlation coefficient, here ρ=0.5.
S55:计算关联系数概率分布:S55: Calculate the probability distribution of the correlation coefficient:
S56:计算监测形变方向和目标形变方向的形变方向关联熵HD(t),形变方向关联熵HD(t)具体为:S56: Calculate the deformation direction correlation entropy H D (t) of the monitoring deformation direction and the target deformation direction, and the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) is specifically:
式中,pi(t)表示在t时刻的关联系数概率。In the formula, p i (t) represents the correlation coefficient probability at time t.
S6:根据形变速率信息熵HV(t)的状态和形变方向关联熵HD(t)的状态,获取滑坡预警等级。S6: According to the state of the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) and the state of the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t), obtain the landslide warning level.
公式(5)为形变速率有序性的最终表达式,从该表达式及其分析过程可知,速率的信息熵随着有序性的增强而减小,当所有的监测点形变速率趋于统一值时,形变速率信息熵趋于零,此时可以认为滑坡即将发生。因此,可以将形变速率趋于零作为形变速率有序性预警判据。Formula (5) is the final expression of the orderliness of the deformation rate. From the expression and its analysis process, it can be seen that the information entropy of the rate decreases with the increase of the orderliness. When the deformation rates of all monitoring points tend to be uniform When the value is , the deformation rate information entropy tends to zero, and at this time it can be considered that the landslide is about to occur. Therefore, the deformation rate approaching zero can be used as an early warning criterion for the order of the deformation rate.
对于形变方向有序性,采用式(9)计算其灰关联熵,显然,对于式(9)中所确定的灰关联熵,HD越大,形变方向的有序性越强,当所有形变方向都趋于一个方向时,ξi为常数,此时pi=1/N,灰关联熵达到最大,其最大值为-ln(1/N)。因此可以通过实际获得的形变方向灰关联熵与最大灰关联熵-ln(1/N)的对比,来确定预警判据。For the order of the deformation direction, formula (9) is used to calculate the gray relational entropy. Obviously, for the gray relational entropy determined in formula (9), the larger HD is, the stronger the order of the deformation direction is. When all the deformation When the directions all tend to one direction, ξ i is a constant, at this time p i =1/N, the gray relational entropy reaches the maximum, and its maximum value is -ln(1/N). Therefore, the early warning criterion can be determined by comparing the gray relational entropy of the deformation direction obtained actually with the maximum gray relational entropy-ln(1/N).
滑坡在临近发生的时候,其形变的速率和方向均趋于一致,因此单一利形变速率和形变方向进行预警,往往容易造成误报和漏报,因此有必要将二者结合起来,通过二者的相互补充和应证,来提升滑坡预警预报的准确性。When a landslide is about to occur, its deformation rate and direction tend to be the same. Therefore, a single early warning of the deformation rate and deformation direction is likely to cause false positives and false positives. Therefore, it is necessary to combine the two. The mutual complementation and confirmation of landslides can improve the accuracy of landslide early warning and forecasting.
首先定义形变速率信息熵和形变方向关联熵的三种状态,其中形变速率信息熵状态SHV-1、SHV-2、SHV-3表示,形变方向关联熵状态以SHD-1、SHD-2、SHD-3表示,各状态具体定义如下:Firstly, three states of deformation rate information entropy and deformation direction correlation entropy are defined, among which deformation rate information entropy states SH V -1, SH V -2, SH V -3 represent, deformation direction correlation entropy states are represented by SH D -1, SH D -2 and SH D -3 indicate that each state is specifically defined as follows:
形变速率信息熵HV(t)随时间的变化具体如附图5(形变速率有序性等级划分示意图)所示。The change of deformation rate information entropy H V (t) over time is shown in Figure 5 (schematic diagram of the order division of deformation rate).
SHV-1表示形变速率信息熵HV(t)随时间的变化平稳发展或围绕中轴线上下波动,无明显的增加或降低趋势;SH V -1 means that the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) develops steadily or fluctuates around the central axis with time, and there is no obvious increase or decrease trend;
SHV-2表示形变速率信息熵HV(t)随时间的变化具有明显的下降趋势(连续三个以上时间间隔内的变化速率基本一致或有所增加);SH V -2 means that the change of deformation rate information entropy H V (t) with time has an obvious downward trend (the rate of change in more than three consecutive time intervals is basically the same or increases);
SHV-3表示形变速率信息熵HV(t)随时间的变化持续保持下降趋势,且逐步逼近于零。SH V -3 means that the deformation rate information entropy H V (t) keeps a downward trend with time, and gradually approaches zero.
形变方向关联熵HD(t)随时间的变化具体如附图6(形变方向有序性等级划分示意图)所示。The variation of the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) over time is shown in Figure 6 (schematic diagram of the order division of the deformation direction).
SHD-1表示形变方向关联熵HD(t)随时间的变化平稳发展或围绕中轴线上下波动,无明显的增加或降低趋势;SH D -1 means that the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) develops steadily or fluctuates around the central axis with time, without obvious increase or decrease trend;
SHD-2表示形变方向关联熵HD(t)随时间的变化具有明显的上升趋势(连续三个以上时间间隔内的变化速率基本一致或有所增加);SH D -2 means that the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) has an obvious upward trend over time (the rate of change in more than three consecutive time intervals is basically the same or increases);
SHD-3表示形变方向关联熵HD(t)随时间的变化持续保持上升趋势,且逐步逼近于-ln(1/N)。SH D -3 means that the deformation direction correlation entropy HD (t) keeps increasing with time, and gradually approaches -ln(1/N).
基于上述两种熵值的状态定义,构建预警判据矩阵如下:Based on the state definitions of the above two entropy values, the early warning criterion matrix is constructed as follows:
本方案利用同一滑坡体上不同监测点的形变速率和形变方向特征,做到多监测点的融合利用,从滑坡的整体角度进行预警预报,从而避免现有预警预报方法的疏漏和不足;滑坡在进入加速变形阶段时对地表起控制作用的是滑坡的整体运动,局部微地貌控制作用明显减弱,此时地表的变形趋于有序,根据有序性演化过程可以对滑坡变形破坏阶段进行定量描述,从而可以根据有序性进行滑坡预警,本方案利用监测传感器的获取滑坡的形变速率,通过形变速率有序性演化过程来对滑坡变形阶段进行定量描述,同时选取确认主滑方向作为目标方向,根据监测点监测得到的形变方向与主滑方向的关联程度来表示形变方向有序性,再结合形变速率有序性和形变方向有序性,建立预警依据,与现有的预警模型形成互补,提升灾害预警预报的可靠性和准确性;利用滑坡形变的两个重要参数:形变速率和形变方向两个参数,参数较少,能够描述滑坡变形破坏阶段且减少预警误差。This scheme uses the deformation rate and deformation direction characteristics of different monitoring points on the same landslide to achieve the integration and utilization of multiple monitoring points, and carry out early warning and forecasting from the overall perspective of the landslide, so as to avoid the omissions and deficiencies of the existing early warning and forecasting methods; When entering the stage of accelerated deformation, it is the overall movement of the landslide that controls the surface, and the control effect of the local microtopography is obviously weakened. At this time, the deformation of the surface tends to be orderly. According to the orderly evolution process, the deformation and failure stage of the landslide can be quantitatively described , so that the landslide early warning can be carried out according to the order. This scheme uses the monitoring sensor to obtain the deformation rate of the landslide, and quantitatively describes the deformation stage of the landslide through the orderly evolution process of the deformation rate. At the same time, the main sliding direction is selected as the target direction. According to the degree of correlation between the deformation direction and the main sliding direction obtained by the monitoring points, the order of the deformation direction is represented, and combined with the order of the deformation rate and the order of the deformation direction, an early warning basis is established, which is complementary to the existing early warning model. Improve the reliability and accuracy of disaster early warning and forecasting; use two important parameters of landslide deformation: deformation rate and deformation direction, with fewer parameters, which can describe the stage of landslide deformation and failure and reduce early warning errors.
以上所述的仅是本发明的实施例,方案中公知的具体技术方案和/或特性等常识在此未作过多描述。应当指出,对于本领域的技术人员来说,在不脱离本发明技术方案的前提下,还可以作出若干变形和改进,在本发明中,除非另有明确的规定和限定,术语“安装”、“相连”、“连接”、“固定”等术语应做广义理解,例如,可以是固定连接,也可以是可拆卸连接,或一体地连接;可以是直接相连,也可以通过中间媒介间接相连,可以是两个元件内部的连通。对于本领域的普通技术人员而言,可以根据具体情况理解上述术语在本发明中的具体含义。本申请要求的保护范围应当以其权利要求的内容为准,说明书中的具体实施方式等记载可以用于解释权利要求的内容。What is described above is only an embodiment of the present invention, and common knowledge such as specific technical solutions and/or characteristics known in the solutions will not be described here too much. It should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, some modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the technical solutions of the present invention. In the present invention, unless otherwise specified and limited, the terms "installation", Terms such as "connected", "connected" and "fixed" should be understood in a broad sense, for example, they can be fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally connected; they can be directly connected or indirectly connected through an intermediary, It can be a connection between two components. Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention according to specific situations. The scope of protection required by this application shall be based on the content of the claims, and the specific implementation methods and other records in the specification may be used to interpret the content of the claims.
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