CN114676590A - Simulation model for individual decision - Google Patents
Simulation model for individual decision Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN114676590A CN114676590A CN202210382016.8A CN202210382016A CN114676590A CN 114676590 A CN114676590 A CN 114676590A CN 202210382016 A CN202210382016 A CN 202210382016A CN 114676590 A CN114676590 A CN 114676590A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- module
- individual
- model
- decision
- production
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q30/00—Commerce
- G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
- G06Q30/0201—Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2111/00—Details relating to CAD techniques
- G06F2111/04—Constraint-based CAD
Landscapes
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Finance (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Accounting & Taxation (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
- General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Geometry (AREA)
- Evolutionary Computation (AREA)
- Computer Hardware Design (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及个体决策仿真模型技术领域,具体地说是一种个体决策的仿真模型。The invention relates to the technical field of individual decision-making simulation models, in particular to a simulation model of individual decision-making.
背景技术Background technique
农业环境系统是一种开放的复杂适应性系统,不仅涉及环境本身的物理特征,还涉及经济社会与生态环境之间的复杂交互。这种复杂交互很大程度上源自系统中特征各异的参与主体,如农户个体、企业、政府等。这些主体拥有不同的决策和行为原则,并随着科技的发展、信息的传递而采取不断学习的适应性措施。在不同的时空条件下,主体与差异多样的环境系统产生不同维度不同程度的交互,使农业系统呈现出适应性、演化性、非线性和非均衡性的特点。基于主体的建模方法建立在复杂适应性系统理论基础上,借助交叉学科和先进的计算机技术,可以很好地描述各类环境系统中异质性主体的交互,通过设定不同的规则机制,深入刻画系统中的非线性关系。基于主体建模方法可以整合传统的研究方法,克服传统方法对复杂系统问题建模的局限性,帮助人们认识和解决各类复杂系统问题,更好地辅助人们进行决策。The agro-environmental system is an open and complex adaptive system that involves not only the physical characteristics of the environment itself, but also the complex interaction between the economy, society and the ecological environment. This complex interaction largely originates from the participants with different characteristics in the system, such as individual farmers, enterprises, and governments. These subjects have different decision-making and behavioral principles, and take adaptive measures of continuous learning with the development of technology and the transmission of information. Under different temporal and spatial conditions, the main body interacts with different environmental systems in different dimensions and to different degrees, which makes the agricultural system show the characteristics of adaptability, evolution, nonlinearity and non-equilibrium. The agent-based modeling method is based on the theory of complex adaptive systems. With the help of interdisciplinary and advanced computer technology, the interaction of heterogeneous agents in various environmental systems can be well described. By setting different rules and mechanisms, Deeply characterize nonlinear relationships in systems. The agent-based modeling method can integrate traditional research methods, overcome the limitations of traditional methods for modeling complex system problems, help people understand and solve various complex system problems, and better assist people in decision-making.
早在上世纪90年代末有研究人员开始运用仿真模型研究农户决策过程,最为经典的是Balmann等设计的AGRIPOLIS模型,该模型采用混合整数规划的思想模拟不同政策背景下农户决策对区域农业结构变化的影响。此后,Lobianco在AGRIPOLIS模型的基础上进行优化,设计了RegMAS模型,为农业领域的生产决策问题的求解提供了思路。As early as the late 1990s, some researchers began to use simulation models to study the decision-making process of farmers. The most classic model is the AGRIPOLIS model designed by Balmann et al. Impact. After that, Lobianco optimized on the basis of the AGRIPOLIS model and designed the RegMAS model, which provided ideas for the solution of production decision-making problems in the agricultural field.
但这些模型针对农业单一领域的具体问题进行决策,缺乏普适性。实际情境中的决策问题遍及各行各业,决策环境复杂多样,相关影响因素众多,限制了该类仿真模型的应用However, these models make decisions for specific problems in a single field of agriculture and lack universality. Decision-making problems in actual situations spread across all walks of life, the decision-making environment is complex and diverse, and there are many related influencing factors, which limit the application of this type of simulation model.
因此,需要设计一种个体决策的仿真模型,通过设置一系列外界资源环境条件和个体资源禀赋的情况下,运用数学规划的方法,模拟行为主体在资源约束条件实现自身效用或者利润最大化的决策行为。Therefore, it is necessary to design a simulation model of individual decision-making. By setting a series of external resource and environmental conditions and individual resource endowments, the method of mathematical programming is used to simulate the decision-making of actors to maximize their own utility or profit under resource constraints. Behavior.
发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
本发明的目的是克服现有技术的不足,提供了一种个体决策的仿真模型,通过设置一系列外界资源环境条件和个体资源禀赋的情况下,运用数学规划的方法,模拟行为主体在资源约束条件实现自身效用或者利润最大化的决策行为。The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art and provide a simulation model for individual decision-making. By setting a series of external resource environment conditions and individual resource endowments, the method of mathematical programming is used to simulate the behavior of the main body under resource constraints. Conditional decision-making behavior to maximize its own utility or profit.
为了达到上述目的,本发明提供一种个体决策的仿真模型,模型采用模块化程序设计,包括行为模块、个体模块、政府模块、决策模块、主函数模块、文件管理模块和接口模块;In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a simulation model of individual decision-making, the model adopts modular program design, including behavior module, individual module, government module, decision-making module, main function module, file management module and interface module;
【行为模块】:模型通过读取生产投入与产出文件,获得所有的生产行为,将这些生产行为通过行为模块构建出每个行为对象,这些行为对象将在最优化决策模块实例化并被调用;[Behavior module]: The model obtains all production behaviors by reading the production input and output files, and constructs each behavior object through the behavior module. These behavior objects will be instantiated and called in the optimization decision module ;
【个体模块】:模型通过读取个体基本属性文件,获得所有个体及他们的各项基本属性,将这些个体通过个体模块构建出每个个体对象,这些个体对象将在最优化决策模块实例化并被调用;[Individual module]: The model obtains all individuals and their basic attributes by reading the individual basic attribute file, and constructs each individual object from these individuals through the individual module. These individual objects will be instantiated in the optimization decision module and created. is called;
【政府模块】:模型读取政府补贴文件和政策类别参数,并在政府模块中构建政府对象,同时完成补贴方式、补贴标准以及示范个体的设定,政府对象将在最优化决策模块实例化并被调用;[Government Module]: The model reads government subsidy files and policy category parameters, and constructs government objects in the government module. At the same time, it completes the settings of subsidy methods, subsidy standards and demonstration individuals. The government objects will be instantiated in the optimization decision module and created. is called;
【决策模块】:该模块通过对每个个体设定一套统一的行动准则,通过在模型中引入线性规划的思想,即求解约束条件下目标函数最优解的方式,计算每个个体决策结果;[Decision module]: This module calculates the decision result of each individual by setting a set of unified action criteria for each individual and introducing the idea of linear programming into the model, that is, the method of solving the optimal solution of the objective function under the constraints. ;
【主函数模块】:该模块是模型运行的入口,负责[Main function module]: This module is the entry point for the model to run and is responsible for
初始化模型运行前的基本变量,包括控制文件变量、输入输出文件变量、日志文件变量;Initialize the basic variables before the model runs, including control file variables, input and output file variables, and log file variables;
循环执行每期的模拟,接收上一期的模拟结果并传入下一期的模拟中;Execute the simulation of each period in a loop, receive the simulation results of the previous period and pass them into the simulation of the next period;
释放缓冲区和临时文件,保存程序运行日志,打印模型运行结束信息;Release the buffer and temporary files, save the program running log, and print the model running end information;
【文件管理模块】:该模块实现对所有输入文件、控制文件的读取,模型支持xls、xlsx格式的数据文件和txt格式的控制文件,该模块负责读取这些数据文件并将其存储在临时缓冲区中,当其他模块需要获取数据时,文件管理模块会查询临时缓冲区,找到相应数据并传递给这些模块;[File management module]: This module realizes the reading of all input files and control files. The model supports data files in xls, xlsx format and control files in txt format. This module is responsible for reading these data files and storing them in temporary In the buffer, when other modules need to obtain data, the file management module will query the temporary buffer, find the corresponding data and pass it to these modules;
【接口模块】:该模块实现对外部链接库的载入,模型在计算个体最优决策时需要调用外部运算库,这些运算库与模型本身不能直接连接,接口模块构造一般性的接入规则,使得外部库通过接口模块都能实现与模型的兼容,便于模型的扩展;[Interface module]: This module implements the loading of external link libraries. The model needs to call external operation libraries when calculating individual optimal decisions. These operation libraries cannot be directly connected to the model itself. The interface module constructs general access rules. The external library can be compatible with the model through the interface module, which is convenient for the expansion of the model;
各模块之间的衔接关系为:The connection between the modules is as follows:
决策模块依赖于行为模块、个体模块以及政府模块,同时外部库通过接口模块对于最优化模块给予功能扩展支持;The decision-making module depends on the behavior module, the individual module and the government module, and the external library provides functional expansion support for the optimization module through the interface module;
文件管理模块与行为模块、个体模块和政府模块相联系,实现数据传输行为模块聚合于个体模块,实现行为和个体的对应;The file management module is connected with the behavior module, the individual module and the government module, and the data transmission behavior module is aggregated in the individual module to realize the correspondence between the behavior and the individual;
个体模块和政府模块相联系,个体决策受制于政府模块对政策环境的设定;The individual module is linked with the government module, and individual decision-making is subject to the government module's setting of the policy environment;
A.其他所有模块聚合于主函数之中,共同组成了整个模型的架构。A. All other modules are aggregated into the main function, which together constitute the architecture of the entire model.
决策模块中的目标函数包括:The objective functions in the decision module include:
【利润收益】:利润函数由总收入减去总成本加上政府补贴以及其他收入部分构成;【Profit income】: The profit function consists of total revenue minus total cost plus government subsidies and other revenue components;
Profitt=Total Revenue-Total Cost+Subsidies+Other IncomeProfit t =Total Revenue-Total Cost+Subsidies+Other Income
将其公式化为:maxПt=TRt-TCt+Subt+OIt It is formulated as: maxП t =TR t -TC t +Sub t +OI t
【总收益】:总收益TRt用当年生产出的所有产品的产量Qt与价格Pt乘积衡量:TRt=QtPt [Total revenue]: The total revenue TR t is measured by the product of the output Q t of all products produced in the year and the price P t : TR t = Q t P t
【总成本】:总成本TCt包含总可变成本VCt和总固定成本FCt两部分;[Total cost]: The total cost TC t includes the total variable cost VC t and the total fixed cost FC t ;
运用投入产出法计算,即产量xi、投入产出系数aij以及要素价格pj的乘积衡量当期可变成本: Calculated using the input-output method, that is, the product of output xi , input-output coefficient a ij and factor price p j to measure the current variable cost:
总固定成本指出厂房、机器设备等固定资产,这种生产要素一次性投入,多期使用,其成本计算方式按照其购买期总值贴现到使用年限的每一年当中去,设固定资产购买期总值为Fixed asset,年贴现率为r,使用年限为T,则每年的固定资产折现成本为: The total fixed cost refers to fixed assets such as factory buildings, machinery and equipment. This production factor is invested in one time and used in multiple periods. The cost calculation method is discounted to each year of the service life according to the total value of the purchase period, and the fixed asset purchase period is set. The total value is Fixed asset, the annual discount rate is r, and the service life is T, then the annual discounted cost of fixed assets is:
【政府补贴】:政府补贴Subsidies有两种计算形式,当根据生产行为的结果进行补贴,则Subout是计算项目报告期outreport和基期outbase的结果变化再与补贴额subsidies的乘积;当根据技术采纳情况补贴,则Subadoption计算采纳与否adoption与补贴额subsidies的乘积:[Government subsidy]: There are two calculation forms for government subsidy Subsidies. When subsidy is made according to the results of production behavior, Sub out is the product of the change in the results of the out report during the project reporting period and the out base in the base period and the amount of subsidies; If the technology adoption is subsidized, Sub adoption calculates the product of adoption and subsidies:
Subbout=subsidies*(outreport-outbase)Subb out =subsidies*(out report -out base )
【其他收入】:其他收入是生产以外的收入,表示为劳动总量OLt和工资额wt的乘积:OIt=OLtwt [Other income]: Other income is income other than production, expressed as the product of total labor OL t and wage amount w t : OI t = OL t w t
综上,个体利润最大化目标函数可以表示为:To sum up, the objective function of individual profit maximization can be expressed as:
决策模块中的约束条件为:The constraints in the decision module are:
【预算约束】:预算约束是个体当年事先划定一个预算值,当年总的生产成本应当在控制在预算值之内,包括可变成本和固定成本,每一年的预算等于上一年的总利润的一部分:[Budget Constraint]: The budget constraint is that the individual sets a budget value in advance for the current year. The total production cost of the current year should be controlled within the budget value, including variable costs and fixed costs. The budget for each year is equal to the previous year's budget. Part of the total profit:
【禀赋约束】:禀赋约束是个体自有的劳动力、机械、土地等这些个体生产开始前就具备的生产资料,设个体各项生产要素初始禀赋为bj,bj指代第j个生产要素,则应当满足各项生产要素使用量小于其禀赋量:【Endowment Constraint】: Endowment constraint is the means of production such as labor, machinery, land, etc. that are owned by the individual before the individual production begins. Let the initial endowment of each production factor of the individual be b j , and b j refers to the jth production factor , then the usage of each factor of production should be less than its endowment:
决策模块的具体流程为:模型读取行为模块资源禀赋文件、生产投入与产出文件、产品价格文件,获得各项生产行为的投入产出系数、所有个体的资源禀赋以及产品价格,再调用个体模块实例化所有个体,调用政府模块实例化当前政策环境,为每个个体构建其生产决策的政策环境、资源禀赋条件,同时定义每个个体统一的生产目标,最后将这些个体导入线性规划函数中依次计算并输出他们的最优生产行为结果。The specific process of the decision-making module is: the model reads the resource endowment file, production input and output file, and product price file of the behavior module, obtains the input-output coefficient of each production behavior, the resource endowment and product price of all individuals, and then calls the individual The module instantiates all individuals, calls the government module to instantiate the current policy environment, constructs the policy environment and resource endowment conditions for each individual's production decision, and defines the unified production goal of each individual, and finally imports these individuals into the linear programming function Calculate and output their optimal production behavior results in turn.
本发明同现有技术相比,采用模块化程序设计,包含行为模块、个体模块、政府模块、最优化决策模块、主函数模块、文件管理模块以及接口模块,本模型遵循基于主体建模(agent-based modelling,ABM)的思想和规范,适用于多主体系统(multi-agent system)中个体决策行为的研究。Compared with the prior art, the present invention adopts modular program design, including behavior module, individual module, government module, optimization decision module, main function module, file management module and interface module. -based modelling, ABM) ideas and norms, suitable for the study of individual decision-making behavior in multi-agent systems.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1为本发明的模型运行流程示意图;Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a model running process flow of the present invention;
图2为本发明的标准建模示意图;Fig. 2 is the standard modeling schematic diagram of the present invention;
图3为本发明实施例的control.properties界面展示图;3 is a display diagram of the control.properties interface according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图4为本发明实施例的data01文件夹界面展示图;4 is a display diagram of a data01 folder interface according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图5为本发明实施例的farm_endowment.csv文件界面展示图;Fig. 5 is the farm_endowment.csv file interface display diagram of the embodiment of the present invention;
图6为本发明实施例的input_output_tradition.csv文件界面展示图;Fig. 6 is the input_output_tradition.csv file interface display diagram of the embodiment of the present invention;
图7为本发明实施例的input_output_deep.csv文件界面展示图;7 is a display diagram of an input_output_deep.csv file interface according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图8为本发明实施例的input_output_slow.csv文件界面展示图;FIG. 8 is a display diagram of the input_output_slow.csv file interface according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图9为本发明实施例的farm_parameters.csv文件界面展示图;Fig. 9 is the farm_parameters.csv file interface display diagram of the embodiment of the present invention;
图10为本发明实施例的carbon_price.csv”文件界面展示图;Fig. 10 is the carbon_price.csv" file interface display diagram of the embodiment of the present invention;
图11为本发明实施例的activity_price.csv”文件界面展示图;FIG. 11 is an interface display diagram of the “activity_price.csv” file according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图12为本发明实施例的subsidy.csv文件界面展示图;FIG. 12 is a display diagram of a subsidy.csv file interface according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图13为本发明实施例的carbon_reduce.csv文件界面展示图;Fig. 13 is the carbon_reduce.csv file interface display diagram of the embodiment of the present invention;
图14为本发明实施例的采用传统施肥技术的运算结果展示图;FIG. 14 is a display diagram of an operation result using a traditional fertilization technique according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图15为本发明实施例的采用缓释肥技术的运算结果展示图;Fig. 15 is the operation result display diagram of adopting slow-release fertilizer technology according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图16为本发明实施例的采用化肥深施技术的运算结果展示图;Fig. 16 is the operation result display diagram of adopting the deep application technology of chemical fertilizer according to the embodiment of the present invention;
图17为本发明实施例的result_5.csv”文件界面展示图;17 is a display diagram of the “result_5.csv” file interface according to an embodiment of the present invention;
具体实施方式Detailed ways
现结合附图对本发明做进一步描述。The present invention will now be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings.
本发明提供一种个体决策的仿真模型:The present invention provides a simulation model for individual decision-making:
如图1~图17所示,模型采用模块化程序设计,包括行为模块、个体模块、政府模块、决策模块、主函数模块、文件管理模块和接口模块;As shown in Figure 1 to Figure 17, the model adopts modular program design, including behavior module, individual module, government module, decision-making module, main function module, file management module and interface module;
【行为模块】:模型通过读取生产投入与产出文件,获得所有的生产行为,将这些生产行为通过行为模块构建出每个行为对象,这些行为对象将在最优化决策模块实例化并被调用;[Behavior module]: The model obtains all production behaviors by reading the production input and output files, and constructs each behavior object through the behavior module. These behavior objects will be instantiated and called in the optimization decision module ;
【个体模块】:模型通过读取个体基本属性文件,获得所有个体及他们的各项基本属性,将这些个体通过个体模块构建出每个个体对象,这些个体对象将在最优化决策模块实例化并被调用;[Individual module]: The model obtains all individuals and their basic attributes by reading the individual basic attribute file, and constructs each individual object from these individuals through the individual module. These individual objects will be instantiated in the optimization decision module and created. is called;
【政府模块】:模型读取政府补贴文件和政策类别参数,并在政府模块中构建政府对象,同时完成补贴方式、补贴标准以及示范个体的设定,政府对象将在最优化决策模块实例化并被调用;[Government Module]: The model reads government subsidy files and policy category parameters, and constructs government objects in the government module. At the same time, it completes the settings of subsidy methods, subsidy standards and demonstration individuals. The government objects will be instantiated in the optimization decision module and created. is called;
【决策模块】:该模块通过对每个个体设定一套统一的行动准则,通过在模型中引入线性规划的思想,即求解约束条件下目标函数最优解的方式,计算每个个体决策结果;[Decision module]: This module calculates the decision result of each individual by setting a set of unified action criteria for each individual and introducing the idea of linear programming into the model, that is, the method of solving the optimal solution of the objective function under the constraints. ;
【主函数模块】:该模块是模型运行的入口,负责[Main function module]: This module is the entry point for the model to run and is responsible for
(1)初始化模型运行前的基本变量,包括控制文件变量、输入输出文件变量、日志文件变量;(1) Initialize the basic variables before the model runs, including control file variables, input and output file variables, and log file variables;
(2)循环执行每期的模拟,接收上一期的模拟结果并传入下一期的模拟中;(2) Execute the simulation of each period in a loop, receive the simulation results of the previous period and transfer them to the simulation of the next period;
(3)释放缓冲区和临时文件,保存程序运行日志,打印模型运行结束信息;(3) Release the buffer and temporary files, save the program running log, and print the model running end information;
【文件管理模块】:该模块实现对所有输入文件、控制文件的读取,模型支持xls、xlsx格式的数据文件和txt格式的控制文件,该模块负责读取这些数据文件并将其存储在临时缓冲区中,当其他模块需要获取数据时,文件管理模块会查询临时缓冲区,找到相应数据并传递给这些模块;[File management module]: This module realizes the reading of all input files and control files. The model supports data files in xls, xlsx format and control files in txt format. This module is responsible for reading these data files and storing them in temporary In the buffer, when other modules need to obtain data, the file management module will query the temporary buffer, find the corresponding data and pass it to these modules;
【接口模块】:该模块实现对外部链接库的载入,模型在计算个体最优决策时需要调用外部运算库,这些运算库与模型本身不能直接连接,接口模块构造一般性的接入规则,使得外部库通过接口模块都能实现与模型的兼容,便于模型的扩展;[Interface module]: This module implements the loading of external link libraries. The model needs to call external operation libraries when calculating individual optimal decisions. These operation libraries cannot be directly connected to the model itself. The interface module constructs general access rules. The external library can be compatible with the model through the interface module, which is convenient for the expansion of the model;
各模块之间的衔接关系为:The connection between the modules is as follows:
决策模块依赖于行为模块、个体模块以及政府模块,同时外部库通过接口模块对于最优化模块给予功能扩展支持;The decision-making module depends on the behavior module, the individual module and the government module, and the external library provides functional expansion support for the optimization module through the interface module;
文件管理模块与行为模块、个体模块和政府模块相联系,实现数据传输;The file management module is linked with the behavior module, individual module and government module to realize data transmission;
行为模块聚合于个体模块,实现行为和个体的对应;Behavior modules are aggregated in individual modules to realize the correspondence between behaviors and individuals;
个体模块和政府模块相联系,个体决策受制于政府模块对政策环境的设定;The individual module is linked with the government module, and individual decision-making is subject to the government module's setting of the policy environment;
其他所有模块聚合于主函数之中,共同组成了整个模型的架构。All other modules are aggregated in the main function, which together constitute the architecture of the entire model.
决策模块中的目标函数包括:The objective functions in the decision module include:
【利润收益】:利润函数由总收入减去总成本加上政府补贴以及其他收入部分构成;【Profit income】: The profit function consists of total revenue minus total cost plus government subsidies and other revenue components;
Profitt=Total Revenue-Total Cost+Subsidies+Other IncomeProfit t =Total Revenue-Total Cost+Subsidies+Other Income
将其公式化为:maxПt=TRt-TCt+Subt+Olt It is formulated as: max1 t =TR t -TC t +Sub t +Ol t
【总收益】:总收益TRt用当年生产出的所有产品的产量Qt与价格Pt乘积衡量:TRt=QtPt [Total revenue]: The total revenue TR t is measured by the product of the output Q t of all products produced in the year and the price P t : TR t = Q t P t
【总成本】:总成本TCt包含总可变成本VCt和总固定成本FCt两部分;[Total cost]: The total cost TC t includes the total variable cost VC t and the total fixed cost FC t ;
运用投入产出法计算,即产量xi、投入产出系数αi,j以及要素价格pj的乘积衡量当期可变成本: Calculated using the input-output method, that is, the product of output x i , input-output coefficient α i, j and factor price p j to measure the current variable cost:
总固定成本指出厂房、机器设备等固定资产,这种生产要素一次性投入,多期使用,其成本计算方式按照其购买期总值贴现到使用年限的每一年当中去,设固定资产购买期总值为Fixed asset,年贴现率为r,使用年限为T,则每年的固定资产折现成本为: The total fixed cost refers to fixed assets such as factory buildings, machinery and equipment. This production factor is invested in one time and used in multiple periods. The cost calculation method is discounted to each year of the service life according to the total value of the purchase period, and the fixed asset purchase period is set. The total value is Fixed asset, the annual discount rate is r, and the service life is T, then the annual discounted cost of fixed assets is:
【政府补贴】:政府补贴Subsidies有两种计算形式,当根据生产行为的结果进行补贴,则Subout是计算项目报告期outreport和基期outbase的结果变化再与补贴额subsidies的乘积;当根据技术采纳情况补贴,则Subadoption计算采纳与否adoption与补贴额subsidiies的乘积:[Government subsidy]: There are two calculation forms for government subsidy Subsidies. When subsidy is made according to the results of production behavior, Sub out is the product of the change in the results of the out report during the project reporting period and the out base in the base period and the amount of subsidies; If the technology adoption is subsidized, Sub adoption calculates the product of adoption and subsidiies:
Subout=subsidies*(outreport-outbase)Sub out =subsidies*(out report -out base )
【其他收入】:其他收入是生产以外的收入,表示为劳动总量OLt和工资额wt的乘积:OIt=OLtwt [Other income]: Other income is income other than production, expressed as the product of total labor OL t and wage amount w t : OI t = OL t w t
综上,个体利润最大化目标函数可以表示为:To sum up, the objective function of individual profit maximization can be expressed as:
决策模块中的约束条件为:The constraints in the decision module are:
【预算约束】:预算约束是个体当年事先划定一个预算值,当年总的生产成本应当在控制在预算值之内,包括可变成本和固定成本,每一年的预算等于上一年的总利润的一部分:[Budget Constraint]: The budget constraint is that the individual sets a budget value in advance for the current year. The total production cost of the current year should be controlled within the budget value, including variable costs and fixed costs. The budget for each year is equal to the previous year's budget. Part of the total profit:
【禀赋约束】:禀赋约束是个体自有的劳动力、机械、土地等这些个体生产开始前就具备的生产资料,设个体各项生产要素初始禀赋为bj,bj指代第j个生产要素,则应当满足各项生产要素使用量小于其禀赋量:[Endowment Constraint]: Endowment constraint is the means of production, such as labor, machinery, land, etc., which are owned by the individual before the individual production begins. Let the initial endowment of each production factor of the individual be bj, and bj refers to the jth production factor, then It should be satisfied that the usage of each production factor is less than its endowment:
决策模块的具体流程为:模型读取行为模块资源禀赋文件、生产投入与产出文件、产品价格文件,获得各项生产行为的投入产出系数、所有个体的资源禀赋以及产品价格,再调用个体模块实例化所有个体,调用政府模块实例化当前政策环境,为每个个体构建其生产决策的政策环境、资源禀赋条件,同时定义每个个体统一的生产目标,最后将这些个体导入线性规划函数中依次计算并输出他们的最优生产行为结果。The specific process of the decision-making module is: the model reads the resource endowment file, production input and output file, and product price file of the behavior module, obtains the input-output coefficient of each production behavior, the resource endowment and product price of all individuals, and then calls the individual The module instantiates all individuals, calls the government module to instantiate the current policy environment, constructs the policy environment and resource endowment conditions for each individual's production decision, and defines the unified production goal of each individual, and finally imports these individuals into the linear programming function Calculate and output their optimal production behavior results in turn.
实施例:Example:
下面结合附图对本发明方法的具体实施方式做进一步说明。本发明提供一种个体决策的仿真模型,模型运行流程如下:The specific embodiments of the method of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The present invention provides a simulation model for individual decision-making, and the model running process is as follows:
1、用户根据使用需要设置模型运行的控制参数,这些参数包括模型总模拟期数和每个模拟期代表的现实意义(如“总模拟期=5,一期=一年”,代表模型模拟现实5年间的情况)、政府补贴方式(以结果为导向补贴方式或以过程为导向补贴方式)、文件存放路径。1. The user sets the control parameters of the model operation according to the needs of use. These parameters include the total number of simulation periods of the model and the practical significance of each simulation period (such as "total simulation period = 5, one period = one year", which means that the model simulates
2、用户根据使用需要设置输入文件,这些文件包括个体的资源禀赋文件、生产投入与产出文件(各项生产行为对应各项资源禀赋的投入产出系数)、个体基本属性文件(个体每期的追加投资系数、年龄、性别、受教育程度)、产品价格文件(每期产品价格)、政府补贴文件(每期的补贴标准)、描述所用技术特性的文件。2. The user sets the input files according to the needs of use. These files include individual resource endowment files, production input and output files (input-output coefficients corresponding to each resource endowment for each production behavior), individual basic attribute files (each individual additional investment coefficient, age, gender, education level), product price document (product price per period), government subsidy document (subsidy standard for each period), document describing the technical characteristics used.
3、模型读取输入文件和控制参数,依次计算并得到每个个体根据自身资源禀赋条件下的最优化决策结果,这些结果包括生产哪些产品、采用那种生产技术、每期的利润情况。在每个模拟期模拟完毕后,模型会将当期所有个体的决策结果汇总到一个文件中并输出。3. The model reads the input files and control parameters, calculates and obtains the optimal decision-making results of each individual according to its own resource endowment, and these results include which products to produce, which production technology to use, and the profit of each period. After the simulation of each simulation period, the model will summarize the decision results of all individuals in the current period into a file and output it.
4、在所有模拟期都模拟完毕后,模型打印结束信息,生成日志文件(记录模型运行整体情况)。4. After all simulation periods are completed, the model prints the end information and generates a log file (recording the overall situation of the model operation).
下面采用个体决策仿真模型模拟政府对农业碳排放实施补贴的情景下,农户进行生产资料配置以及生产方式选择,以期实现利润最大化。仿真环境包括7种生产作物选择:小麦、粳稻、籼稻、玉米、大豆、油菜、棉花;涵盖3种施肥技术选择:传统施肥技术、缓释肥技术、化肥深施技术;考虑两种政府补贴方式:按行为主体使用的施肥技术类型进行补贴、按行为主体生产过程中实现的碳减排量进行补贴;结合行为主体的6类资源拥有量:种子、肥料、农药、机械、劳动力、土地进行生产决策。In the following, the individual decision-making simulation model is used to simulate the scenario in which the government implements subsidies for agricultural carbon emissions, and farmers make the allocation of production materials and the choice of production methods in order to maximize profits. The simulation environment includes 7 kinds of production crop options: wheat, japonica rice, indica rice, corn, soybean, rapeseed, cotton; covers 3 kinds of fertilization technology options: traditional fertilization technology, slow-release fertilizer technology, chemical fertilizer deep application technology; Consider two government subsidy methods : Subsidize according to the type of fertilization technology used by the actor, and subsidize according to the carbon emission reduction achieved in the production process of the actor; combine the 6 types of resources owned by the actor: seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, machinery, labor, and land for production decision making.
具体实施过程如下:The specific implementation process is as follows:
首先,用户根据需要设置模型运行的控制参数,界面如图3所示。模型模拟了2004年-2008年共5年的个体决策行为,“subsidyType”用于控制政府补贴方式的选择,包括两个参数:“adoption”和“outcome”。“adoption”代表政府根据个体生产过程中所采用的技术类型进行补贴,“outcome”代表政府按照个体生产过程中实现的碳减排量进行补贴。为便于表述,下文以政府按照个体生产过程中所采用的技术类型进行补贴为例,对模型设计的决策方式以及决策结果进行介绍。模型运行所需要的数据存放于“data/data01/”。First, the user sets the control parameters of the model operation as needed, and the interface is shown in Figure 3. The model simulates the individual decision-making behavior for 5 years from 2004 to 2008. "subsidyType" is used to control the choice of government subsidies, including two parameters: "adoption" and "outcome". "adoption" means the government subsidizes according to the type of technology used in the individual production process, and "outcome" means the government subsidizes according to the carbon emission reduction achieved in the individual production process. For ease of expression, the following introduces the decision-making method and decision-making results of the model design by taking the government's subsidy according to the type of technology used in the individual production process as an example. The data required to run the model is stored in "data/data01/".
然后,用户设置模型运行所需要的输入文件,图4展示了data01文件夹中的所有子文件。“farm_endowment.csv”(图5)文件存放了共60个个体的资源禀赋数据。由于不同施肥技术会对各项资源禀赋的投入产出造成影响,因此上述三种施肥技术对应的生产投入与产出数据存在差异,“input_output_tradition.csv”(图6)“input_output_deep.csv”(图7)“input_output_slow.csv”(图8)文件分别保存了传统施肥技术、化肥深施技术、缓释肥技术三种技术的生产投入与产出数据。个体的异质性体现在个体每期的追加投资系数、年龄、性别、受教育程度方面的差异,个体基本属性数据存放在“farm_parameters.csv”(图9)文件中。“carbon_price.csv”(图10)文件用于存放2004年-2010年的虚拟碳价,“activity_price.csv”(图11)文件记录了7种作物的交易价格,“subsidy.csv”(图12)文件记录了政府按个体采用的技术类型给予的补贴额度,“carbon_reduce.csv”(图13)文件记录了7种作物生产过程中使用上述3种施肥技术所实现的碳减排量(以传统施肥技术的碳排放量为参照)。The user then sets the input files needed for the model to run. Figure 4 shows all the sub-files in the data01 folder. The file "farm_endowment.csv" (Figure 5) stores the resource endowment data of a total of 60 individuals. Since different fertilization techniques will affect the input and output of various resource endowments, the production input and output data corresponding to the above three fertilization techniques are different, "input_output_tradition. 7) The "input_output_slow.csv" (Fig. 8) file saves the production input and output data of the traditional fertilization technology, the chemical fertilizer deep fertilization technology, and the slow-release fertilizer technology, respectively. The heterogeneity of individuals is reflected in the differences in the additional investment coefficient, age, gender, and education level of individuals in each period. The basic attribute data of individuals are stored in the "farm_parameters.csv" (Figure 9) file. The "carbon_price.csv" (Fig. 10) file is used to store the virtual carbon prices from 2004 to 2010, the "activity_price.csv" (Fig. 11) file records the transaction prices of 7 crops, and the "subsidy.csv" (Fig. 12) ) file records the subsidy amount given by the government according to the type of technology used by individuals, and the “carbon_reduce.csv” (Figure 13) file records the carbon emission reduction achieved by using the above three fertilization technologies in the production process of seven crops (in traditional The carbon emissions of fertilization technology are used as a reference).
接下来运行模型,模型读取控制参数及输入文件,最优化决策功能的实现核心在于最优化决策模块。本实例中个体当期利润由总收入减去总成本加上政府补贴得到。总成本包括由种子、农药、化肥3方面投入组成的总可变成本,以及机械、劳动力、土地3种投入组成的总固定成本。最优化决策模块以利润最大化为目标,计算了个体分别采用上述3种施肥技术情境下的最佳生产方式选择以及资源配置方案。结合线性规划算法所得到的产量分配数据,以及给定的产品价格数据计算出总收益。政府补贴额度根据个体技术采纳情况进行确定,采用传统施肥技术的补贴额度为100单位,采用缓释肥技术的补贴额度为10000单位,采用化肥深施技术的补贴额度为1000单位。图14、图15、图16展示了控制台的输出结果示例:在该生产周期,若编号为“4208070”的个体使用传统施肥技术进行生产,应当选择种植小麦,在种子、农药、化肥成本方面总计需要618.9单位的投入,获利约1185.2单位;若个体使用缓释肥技术进行生产,应当选择种植棉花,在种子、农药、化肥成本方面总计需要223.7单位的投入,获利约1058.8单位;若个体使用化肥深施技术进行生产,应当选择种植棉花,在种子、农药、化肥成本方面总计需要223.7单位的投入,获利约1058.8单位。在此基础上结合政府补贴,可以分别得到当期3种施肥技术情境下的总利润。将这3个总利润值进行比较,得出最优决策结果,如:编号为“4208070”的个体在该生产周期应当采用缓释肥技术生产棉花,此时个体总收入达到14029.6单位。该结果保存在“result_5.csv”文件中(图17),在所有模拟期都模拟完毕后,模型打印结束信息,并生成日志文件。Next, run the model. The model reads the control parameters and input files. The core of the optimization decision-making function lies in the optimization decision-making module. In this example, the individual's current profit is obtained by subtracting total costs from total revenue plus government subsidies. The total cost includes the total variable cost consisting of seeds, pesticides, and fertilizers, and the total fixed cost consisting of machinery, labor, and land. The optimal decision-making module aims at maximizing profit, and calculates the optimal production method selection and resource allocation plan for individuals using the above three fertilization technology scenarios. The total revenue is calculated by combining the output allocation data obtained by the linear programming algorithm and the given product price data. The amount of government subsidies is determined according to the adoption of individual technologies. The subsidy amount for traditional fertilization technology is 100 units, the subsidy amount for slow-release fertilizer technology is 10,000 units, and the subsidy amount for deep fertilizer application technology is 1,000 units. Figure 14, Figure 15, and Figure 16 show examples of the output results of the console: In this production cycle, if the individual numbered "4208070" uses traditional fertilization technology for production, he should choose to plant wheat, in terms of seeds, pesticides, and fertilizer costs. A total of 618.9 units of input are required, and the profit is about 1185.2 units; if an individual uses the slow-release fertilizer technology for production, he should choose to plant cotton, which requires a total of 223.7 units of investment in the cost of seeds, pesticides and fertilizers, and makes a profit of about 1058.8 units; if Individuals who use chemical fertilizer deep application technology for production should choose to plant cotton. In terms of seeds, pesticides, and fertilizer costs, a total of 223.7 units of input are required, and a profit of about 1,058.8 units. On this basis, combined with government subsidies, the total profits of the current three fertilization technology scenarios can be obtained respectively. Comparing these three total profit values, the optimal decision result is obtained. For example, the individual numbered "4208070" should use slow-release fertilizer technology to produce cotton in this production cycle, and the individual's total income at this time reaches 14029.6 units. The result is saved in the "result_5.csv" file (Figure 17), and after all simulation periods have been simulated, the model prints the end message and a log file is generated.
以上,对本发明的实施方式进行了说明,但本发明的范围并不仅仅限于此,使用者可以在不脱离本发明的主旨的范围内进行各种变更,加以实施,但是都包括在本专利的保护范围内。The embodiments of the present invention have been described above, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and the user can make various changes and implement them without departing from the gist of the present invention. within the scope of protection.
本发明从整体上解决了现有技术中因实际情境中的决策问题遍及各行各业,决策环境复杂多样,相关影响因素众多,限制了该类仿真模型的应用的技术问题,以数学规划方法为算法基础,模拟行为主体在资源约束条件下实现自身效用最大化或者利润最大化的决策行为。拓宽了该类模型的应用领域,内置的算法适用于解决农业、工业等众多领域的决策问题,能够最大化利用现有数据的价值辅助个体决策。该模型的运用将会大大提高个体决策能力,提升其管理决策水平。The invention as a whole solves the technical problems in the prior art, which limit the application of this type of simulation model due to the fact that the decision-making problems in the actual situation spread to all walks of life, the decision-making environment is complex and diverse, and the relevant influencing factors are numerous. Based on the algorithm, it simulates the decision-making behavior of actors to maximize their own utility or maximize profits under resource constraints. The application field of this type of model is broadened, and the built-in algorithm is suitable for solving decision-making problems in many fields such as agriculture and industry, and can maximize the value of existing data to assist individual decision-making. The application of this model will greatly improve the individual decision-making ability and the level of management decision-making.
Claims (4)
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202210382016.8A CN114676590B (en) | 2022-04-12 | 2022-04-12 | Simulation model for individual decision |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202210382016.8A CN114676590B (en) | 2022-04-12 | 2022-04-12 | Simulation model for individual decision |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN114676590A true CN114676590A (en) | 2022-06-28 |
| CN114676590B CN114676590B (en) | 2024-05-24 |
Family
ID=82077478
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202210382016.8A Active CN114676590B (en) | 2022-04-12 | 2022-04-12 | Simulation model for individual decision |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN114676590B (en) |
Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20080177688A1 (en) * | 2006-09-07 | 2008-07-24 | Friedlander Robert R | System and method for managing a chaotic event by providing optimal and adaptive sequencing of decision sets with supporting data |
| WO2009105100A1 (en) * | 2008-02-21 | 2009-08-27 | Outperformance, Inc. | A method for constrained business plan optimization based on attributes |
| US20180181894A1 (en) * | 2016-12-02 | 2018-06-28 | Gary Michael Schneider | System and method for developing multi-objective production plans for prouction agriculture |
| CN109409593A (en) * | 2018-10-17 | 2019-03-01 | 郑州大学 | For assisting the flow management method and system of hospital financial budget allocation decision |
-
2022
- 2022-04-12 CN CN202210382016.8A patent/CN114676590B/en active Active
Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20080177688A1 (en) * | 2006-09-07 | 2008-07-24 | Friedlander Robert R | System and method for managing a chaotic event by providing optimal and adaptive sequencing of decision sets with supporting data |
| WO2009105100A1 (en) * | 2008-02-21 | 2009-08-27 | Outperformance, Inc. | A method for constrained business plan optimization based on attributes |
| US20180181894A1 (en) * | 2016-12-02 | 2018-06-28 | Gary Michael Schneider | System and method for developing multi-objective production plans for prouction agriculture |
| CN109409593A (en) * | 2018-10-17 | 2019-03-01 | 郑州大学 | For assisting the flow management method and system of hospital financial budget allocation decision |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 李志刚;傅泽田;郑志安;李玲;: "基于CGE模型的政策模拟系统的研究", 中国农业大学学报, no. 05, 30 October 2006 (2006-10-30) * |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN114676590B (en) | 2024-05-24 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Grêt-Regamey et al. | Actors’ diversity and the resilience of social-ecological systems to global change | |
| Hori et al. | Application of cloud computing to agriculture and prospects in other fields | |
| Rahman et al. | Six decades of total factor productivity change and sources of growth in Bangladesh agriculture (1948–2008) | |
| Joffre et al. | Combining participatory approaches and an agent-based model for better planning shrimp aquaculture | |
| Dislich et al. | Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes—An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs | |
| Pérez-Blanco et al. | Assessing farmers' adaptation responses to water conservation policies through modular recursive hydro-micro-macro-economic modeling | |
| Krebs | An empirically grounded model of green electricity adoption in Germany: Calibration, validation and insights into patterns of diffusion | |
| Gaudio et al. | Exploring complementarities between modelling approaches that enable upscaling from plant community functioning to ecosystem services as a way to support agroecological transition | |
| Xu et al. | A technical efficiency evaluation system for vegetable production in China | |
| Feola et al. | Simulation models in farming systems research: Potential and challenges | |
| Ciaian et al. | Farm level modelling of CAP: a methodological review | |
| Deppermann et al. | Redistributive effects of CAP liberalisation: From the sectoral level to the single farm | |
| Athanasiadis et al. | Ontology for seamless integration of agricultural data and models | |
| Munthali et al. | Modeling deforestation in Dzalanyama Forest Reserve, Lilongwe, Malawi: a multi-agent simulation approach | |
| Abdelgalil et al. | Policy modelling of the trade-off between agricultural development and land degradation—the Sudan case | |
| CN114676590B (en) | Simulation model for individual decision | |
| Zeman et al. | Quantifying farmer decision-making in an agent-based model | |
| Baldi et al. | Predicting the effect of the Common Agricultural Policy post-2020 using an agent-based model based on PMP methodology. | |
| CN119168136A (en) | Agricultural machinery scheduling, method and device based on joint optimization of production planning | |
| Le Grusse et al. | Participative modelling to help collective decision-making in water allocation and nitrogen pollution: application to the case of the Aveyron-Lere Basin | |
| Kothmann et al. | New approaches and protocols for grazing management research | |
| CN113222233A (en) | A natural gas multi-agent energy game analysis method and system | |
| Banson et al. | Systemic intervention to tackle the constraints and challenges facing stakeholders and the performance of the agricultural sector in Ghana | |
| Suryani et al. | Model-based Decision Support System Using a System Dynamics Approach to Increase Corn Productivity. | |
| Grove et al. | Modeling human-environmental systems |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |