CN106097710B - Overpass journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term based on traffic scene radar - Google Patents
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- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
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Abstract
The present invention relates to urban viaduct trip service technology fields, and in particular to a kind of overpass journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term based on traffic scene radar.The present invention includes the following steps：1), the installation, deployment and debugging of traffic scene radar；2), traffic scene radar gathered data returns；3) overpass section average travel speed in the single sampling period, is calculated；4) journey time of overpass in the single sampling period, is calculated；5) overpass Forecasting of Travel Time value, is calculated.The traffic information that the present invention can be obtained according to traffic scene radar equipment realizes that this section of overpass future specifies the prediction of journey time, consequently facilitating traveler selects best travel route according to actual travel time demand, to reduce trip delay；Meanwhile or equilibrium traffic stream, alleviating road traffic stifled, optimization traffic administration scheme, improving traffic control etc. basic basis is provided.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to urban viaduct trip service technology fields, and in particular to a kind of height based on traffic scene radar
Bridge formation journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term.
Background technology
Overpass is the aorta of Traffic Systems, carries the main traffic load through city all directions；By
It is good in overpass closure, running speed is fast, driver would generally be selected as traffic path.But in actual life,
Often occur, because overpass gets congestion temporarily, causing to walk the travel time of overpass also longer than the time for walking ordinary road,
Along with the closure of overpass itself, often it is delayed the normal transaction of driver and passenger.Under this overall background, how to seek
A kind of on-line prediction means for overpass journey time are sought, to realize to specified section overpass row in the following certain time
The Accurate Prediction of journey time avoids social resources can effectively reduce trip delay while alleviating road traffic and blocking up
Waste, the technical barrier urgently to be resolved hurrily in recent years for those skilled in the art.
Invention content
The purpose of the present invention is to overcome above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, provides a kind of overpass based on traffic scene radar
Journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term.The present invention can according to traffic scene radar equipment obtain traffic information, realize this section it is overhead
Bridge future specifies the prediction of journey time, consequently facilitating traveler selects most preferably to travel road according to actual travel time demand
Line, to reduce trip delay；Meanwhile or equilibrium traffic stream, alleviating that road traffic is stifled, optimization traffic administration scheme, improves
Traffic control etc. provides basic basis.
To achieve the above object, present invention employs following technical schemes：
A kind of overpass journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term based on traffic scene radar, it is characterised in that including following step
Suddenly：
1), the installation, deployment and debugging of traffic scene radar；
2), traffic scene radar gathered data returns；
3) overpass section average travel speed in the single sampling period, is calculated by following formula：
Wherein：
V is single sampling period overpass section average travel speed, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
viIt is the instantaneous velocity of i-th vehicle in the sampling period, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
N is the total sample number of vehicle in the sampling period；
4) journey time of overpass in the single sampling period, is calculated by following formula：
T=l/v
Wherein：
L is the length of overpass, unit：Rice；
V is single sampling period overpass section average travel speed, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
T is the journey time of single sampling period overpass, unit：Second；
5) overpass Forecasting of Travel Time value, is calculated, calculating process is divided into three steps：
(1) the journey time t' for obtaining the prediction based on time series is calculated as followsj：
t′j=w1tj-1+w2tj-2+w3tj-3
Wherein：
t'jIt is the overpass journey time in j-th of sampling period being calculated with Time Series Method, unit：Second；
tj-1It is the overpass journey time in -1 sampling period of jth, unit：Second；
tj-2It is the overpass journey time in -2 sampling periods of jth, unit：Second；
tj-3It is the overpass journey time in -3 sampling periods of jth, unit：Second；
w1, w2, w3It is weight, w1+w2+w3=1；
(2) the historical data average value t for obtaining hourage is calculated as followsj"：
tj"=∑ Tj/m
Wherein：
tj" it is the historical data average value of hourage, unit：Second；
TjIt is that j-th of all of sampling period goes through from the section history library within 1 year taken out in background data base
History data；
M is the total quantity of the historical data in j-th of sampling period within 1 year；
(3) the predicted value t for obtaining hourage is calculated as followsjNamely overpass Forecasting of Travel Time value：
tj=(t'j+tj")/2
Wherein：
tjIt is the predicted value of the hourage in j-th of period of overpass, unit：Second；
t'jIt is the overpass journey time in j-th of sampling period being calculated with Time Series Method, unit：Second；
tj" it is the historical data average value of j-th of hourage in sampling period, unit：Second.
Traffic scene radar gathered data passback in the step 2), refers to being acquired headend equipment by communication network
Data back to backstage, return data include at least vehicle ID data, the instantaneous velocity data of vehicle and the time of upload
Stab data.
In the step 3), the data of traffic scene radar acquisition were counted with every 5 minutes for a sampling period.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are：
1) the characteristics of, through the above scheme, the present invention utilizes traffic scene radar when acquiring information not by ectocine,
So that entire gatherer process precision height, good reliability, data packetloss rate are small, and then it ensure that the accurate of acquired initial data
Property and reliability.What is more important, since the present invention combines time series forecasting again simultaneously using historical data, more than this kind
The prediction technique of pattern can effectively promote the precision of predicting travel time, final to be carried for the reliability and accuracy of prediction result
Strong guarantee is supplied.
In fact, traffic short-term prediction is the prediction in microcosmic meaning, it is different from the strategic middle sight of traffic programme, macroscopic view meaning
Prediction in justice.The traffic information that the present invention is obtained according to traffic scene radar equipment, the method for using multi-mode combination are gone
The following journey time for being no more than 15 minutes of prediction so that its precision of prediction and timeliness can be effectively ensured.The present invention
Best travel route is not only selected according to actual travel time demand convenient for traveler, to reduce trip delay；Meanwhile
Can be equilibrium traffic stream, stifled, optimization traffic administration scheme of alleviating road traffic, improve traffic control etc. and provide basis according to
According to this waste important in inhibiting and application value to avoiding social resources.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the method for the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
For ease of understanding, the specific implementation step of the present invention is described below here in connection with attached drawing 1：
A kind of overpass journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term based on traffic scene radar, including：
1), the installation, deployment and debugging of traffic scene radar；
2), traffic scene radar gathered data returns；
3) overpass section average travel speed in the single sampling period, is calculated；
4) journey time of overpass in the single sampling period, is calculated；
5) overpass Forecasting of Travel Time value, is calculated.
Wherein, installation, deployment and the debugging of the traffic scene radar in step 1) should be carried out in strict accordance with corresponding handbook
Operation, it is ensured that the mounting height and angle of traffic scene radar reach the requirement of data acquisition.Traffic scene thunder in step 2)
It is returned up to gathered data, then refers to headend equipment acquire by communication network data back to from the background, these data are at least
Including vehicle ID, the instantaneous velocity of vehicle, upload timestamp etc..
It calculates overpass section average travel speed in the single sampling period, is by traffic scene radar when practical operation
The data of acquisition were counted with 5 minutes for the sampling period；Its calculation formula is as follows：
Wherein：
V is single sampling period overpass section average travel speed, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
viIt is the instantaneous velocity of i-th vehicle in the sampling period, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
N is the total sample number of vehicle in the sampling period.
The journey time of overpass in the single sampling period is calculated, calculation formula is as follows：
T=l/v
Wherein：
L is the length of overpass, unit：Rice；
V is single sampling period overpass section average travel speed, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
T is the journey time of single sampling period overpass, unit：Second.
And calculate the calculating of overpass Forecasting of Travel Time value, then it can be divided into three steps：
(1) the journey time t' of the prediction based on time seriesjCalculation formula it is as follows：
t′j=w1tj-1+w2tj-2+w3tj-3
Wherein：
t'jIt is the overpass journey time in j-th of sampling period being calculated with Time Series Method, unit：Second；
tj-1It is the overpass journey time in -1 sampling period of jth, unit：Second；
tj-2It is the overpass journey time in -2 sampling periods of jth, unit：Second；
tj-3It is the overpass journey time in -3 sampling periods of jth, unit：Second.
w1, w2, w3It is weight, meets relational expression w1+w2+w3=1.For time series angle, conventional value respectively according to
Ordered pair should be 0.5,0.3,0.2.For weight value mode commonly used in the art, the determination of weight still depends on specially
Domestic discipline or empirical method.For time series angle, that nearest period is maximum with predetermined period relationship, therefore weight
It is maximum.
(2) the historical data average value t of houragej"：
The historical data t of houragej" it is with last year, with the sampling period in what day and one day
Two latitudes of number are by the carry out statistical distribution in what day all same same sampling periods, to calculate its average value.
For example, due to, for interval, there is 288 sampling periods within one day at this time with 5 minutes；If TjWhat is represented is within 1 year
The overpass hourage in the 45th sampling period on all Mondays, then tj" it is exactly the 45th of all Mondays within 1 year
The average value of the overpass hourage in a sampling period.
The historical data average value t for obtaining hourage is calculated as followsj"：
tj"=∑ Tj/m
Wherein：
tj" it is the historical data average value of hourage, unit：Second；
TjIt is that j-th of all of sampling period goes through from the section history library within 1 year taken out in background data base
History data；
M is the total quantity of the historical data in j-th of sampling period within 1 year；
(3) the predicted value t of final required obtained houragejCalculation formula it is as follows：
tj=(t'j+tj")/2
Wherein：
tjIt is the predicted value of the hourage in j-th of period of overpass, unit：Second；
t'jIt is the overpass journey time in j-th of sampling period being calculated with Time Series Method, unit：Second；
tj" it is the historical data average value of j-th of hourage in sampling period, unit：Second.
Further to deepen the understanding of the present invention, there is provided herein following embodiments, further to make to the present invention
It is specific to discuss：
Embodiment：
Selection experiment section carries out installation, deployment and the debugging of traffic scene radar, it is ensured that traffic scene radar acquires number
According to passback.It is 5 minutes to take the sampling period, tests section whole audience 934m.
Select a sampling period 7：00-7：05 data have 15 vehicles to pass through, their instantaneous velocity in the period
Respectively：71km/h,68km/h,64km/h,72km/h,59km/h,71km/h,65km/h,68km/h,55km/h,67km/h,
78km/h、71km/h、69km/h、66km/h、70km/h。
Calculate overpass section average travel speed in the single sampling period：
V=(71+68+64+72+59+71+65+68+55+67+78+71+69+66+70)/15=67.6km/h=
18.78m/s
Calculate the journey time of overpass in the single sampling period：T=934/18.78=49.73s
Obtain the period 7 of next sampling：05-7：10 journey time：
1) first three sampling period 7 is taken：00-7：05,6：55-7：00,6：50-6：55 journey time：
T=49.73s, t1=47.25s, t2=45.06s
2) the journey time t' of the prediction based on time seriesj：
t‘j=0.5*49.73+0.3*47.25+0.2*45.06=48.052
3) from being taken out in background data base within 1 year 7 in the section history library：05-7：10 this sampling period owned
Historical data obtains the historical data average value t of houragej"：
t″j=47.21s
4) the predicted value t of houragej：
tj=(48.052+47.21)/2=47.631s
7 namely obtained by prediction：05-7：The journey time in 10 this sampling period is 47.631s.
7 obtained by traffic scene radar：05-7：10 vehicle data is calculated 7：05-7：10 this period
True journey time is 48.53s, with predicted value be error is 1.85%, and error is within the allowable range.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of overpass journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term based on traffic scene radar, it is characterised in that including following step
Suddenly：
1), the installation, deployment and debugging of traffic scene radar；
2), traffic scene radar gathered data returns；
3) overpass section average travel speed in the single sampling period, is calculated by following formula：
Wherein：
V is single sampling period overpass section average travel speed, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
viIt is the instantaneous velocity of i-th vehicle in the sampling period, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
N is the total sample number of vehicle in the sampling period；
4) journey time of overpass in the single sampling period, is calculated by following formula：
T=l/v
Wherein：
L is the length of overpass, unit：Rice；
V is single sampling period overpass section average travel speed, unit：Metre per second (m/s)；
T is the journey time of single sampling period overpass, unit：Second；
5) overpass Forecasting of Travel Time value, is calculated, calculating process is divided into three steps：
(1) the journey time t' for obtaining the prediction based on time series is calculated as followsj：
t′j=w1tj-1+w2tj-2+w3tj-3
Wherein：
t′jIt is the overpass journey time in j-th of sampling period being calculated with Time Series Method, unit：Second；
tj-1It is the overpass journey time in -1 sampling period of jth, unit：Second；
tj-2It is the overpass journey time in -2 sampling periods of jth, unit：Second；
tj-3It is the overpass journey time in -3 sampling periods of jth, unit：Second；
w1, w2, w3It is weight, w1+w2+w3=1；
(2) the historical data average value t " for obtaining hourage is calculated as followsj：
t"j=∑ Tj/m
Wherein：
t"jIt is the historical data average value of hourage, unit：Second；
TjIt is all history numbers in j-th of sampling period from the section history library within 1 year taken out in background data base
According to；
M is the total quantity of the historical data in j-th of sampling period within 1 year；
(3) the predicted value t for obtaining hourage is calculated as followsjNamely overpass Forecasting of Travel Time value：
tj=(t'j+t"j)/2
Wherein：
tjIt is the predicted value of the hourage in j-th of period of overpass, unit：Second；
t'jIt is the overpass journey time in j-th of sampling period being calculated with Time Series Method, unit：Second；
t"jIt is the historical data average value of j-th of hourage in sampling period, unit：Second.
2. a kind of overpass journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term based on traffic scene radar according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that：Traffic scene radar gathered data passback in the step 2), refers to being adopted headend equipment by communication network
The data back of collection to backstage, return data include at least vehicle ID data, the instantaneous velocity data of vehicle and upload when
Between stab data.
3. a kind of overpass journey time Forecasting Approach for Short-term based on traffic scene radar according to claim 1 or 2,
It is characterized in that：In the step 3), the data of traffic scene radar acquisition were united with every 5 minutes for a sampling period
Meter.
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| US8452526B2 (en) * | 2003-12-15 | 2013-05-28 | Gary Ignatin | Estimation of roadway travel information based on historical travel data |
| JP5194837B2 (en) * | 2008-01-28 | 2013-05-08 | 日本電気株式会社 | Traffic flow dispersion system and traffic flow dispersion method |
| CN102122439B (en) * | 2011-04-01 | 2013-06-05 | 上海千年城市规划工程设计股份有限公司 | Drive time prediction device |
| CN104021674B (en) * | 2014-06-17 | 2016-07-06 | 武汉烽火众智数字技术有限责任公司 | A kind of quick and precisely prediction vehicle method by road trip time |
| CN107085943B (en) * | 2015-12-23 | 2020-06-30 | 青岛海信网络科技股份有限公司 | Short-term prediction method and system for road travel time |
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