CN104217355A - Method and device for predicting sales volume of promotion items - Google Patents
Method and device for predicting sales volume of promotion items Download PDFInfo
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- CN104217355A CN104217355A CN201410461092.3A CN201410461092A CN104217355A CN 104217355 A CN104217355 A CN 104217355A CN 201410461092 A CN201410461092 A CN 201410461092A CN 104217355 A CN104217355 A CN 104217355A
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a device for predicting sales volume of promotion items. The method for predicting the sales volume of the promotion items includes that price favorable sum of the items is determined according to sales promotion types of the items; sale price of the items is obtained according to the price favorable sum of the items; the sales volume predicted value of the items is obtained according to the sale price and the price-sales volume relation of the items. By means of the method and the device for predicting the sales volume of the promotion items, the accuracy of predicting the sales volume of the promotion items can be increased.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method and apparatus of predicting commodity sales promotion sales volume.
Background technology
Advertising campaign is the key that retailer's flow attracts, sales volume promotes, and it is also different that flow, the sales volume that the advertising campaign of different dynamics brings promotes.And retail market circumstance complication is changeable, how the marketing promotion rising one after another, could predict the effect of certain advertising campaign, and how to learn in advance the sales volume that sales promotion brings, flow and profit, this sales volume that need to be just commodity sales promotion to the effect of advertising campaign is estimated.
Estimate normally by manually rule of thumb carrying out for the sales volume of commodity sales promotion at present, often estimation results is not accurate enough in practice.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the invention provides a kind of method and apparatus of predicting commodity sales promotion sales volume, can improve the accuracy of prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume.
For achieving the above object, according to an aspect of the present invention, provide a kind of method of predicting commodity sales promotion sales volume.
The method of prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume of the present invention comprises: the competitively priced amount of money of determining these commodity according to the promotional form of commodity; Draw the selling price of these commodity according to the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity; Draw the Method for Sales Forecast value of these commodity according to price-sales volume relation of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
Alternatively, show that according to the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity the step of the selling price of these commodity comprises: calculate the place an order probability of these commodity within the sales promotion period, the probability that places an order in the described sales promotion period is the quantity on order of these commodity within the described sales promotion period and the ratio of whole day quantity on order; By the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity with described in the probability multiplication that places an order draw the selling price of these commodity.
Alternatively, described promotional form comprises full subtracting; The step of determining the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the promotional form of commodity comprises: according to the historical sales data of these commodity, multiple conditions that completely subtract are wherein converted to corresponding multiple historical discount, and determine that according to the sales volume of commodity and sales volume and former price these commodity are at described multiple preferential amount of money of multiple historical prices completely subtracting under condition; Set up linear model Y=aX+b, wherein Y represents the preferential amount of money dependent variable of described historical price, and X represents described historical discount independent variable, and a and b represent respectively once item and constant term; Then according to described multiple historical discounts and the preferential amount of money of multiple historical price, adopt the mode of linear fit to determine described a and b, thus the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money and the discount of definite described commodity; The condition of subtracting that expires of described commodity is converted to discount, then determines the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money of described commodity and discount.
Alternatively, before the step of the described Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity, also comprise: the price-sales volume relation representing with exponential relationship of these commodity is converted to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of these commodity by the mode of taking the logarithm, according to the historical sales data of these commodity, use the mode of linear fit to determine once item and the constant term of this price-sales volume relation; The step of the described Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity comprises: the Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity according to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
According to a further aspect in the invention, provide a kind of device of predicting commodity sales promotion sales volume.
The device of prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume of the present invention comprises: competitively priced amount of money computing module, for determine the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the promotional form of commodity; Selling price computing module, for drawing the selling price of these commodity according to the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity; Method for Sales Forecast module, for drawing the Method for Sales Forecast value of these commodity according to price-sales volume relation of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
Alternatively, described selling price computing module also for: calculate the place an order probability of these commodity within the sales promotion period, the probability that places an order in the described sales promotion period is the quantity on order of these commodity within the described sales promotion period and the ratio of whole day quantity on order; By the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity with described in the probability multiplication that places an order draw the selling price of these commodity.
Alternatively, described competitively priced amount of money computing module also for: according to the historical sales data of these commodity, multiple conditions that completely subtract are wherein converted to corresponding multiple historical discount, and determine that according to the sales volume of commodity and sales volume and former price these commodity are at described multiple preferential amount of money of multiple historical prices completely subtracting under condition; Set up linear model Y=aX+b, wherein Y represents the preferential amount of money dependent variable of described historical price, and X represents described historical discount independent variable, and a and b represent respectively once item and constant term; Then according to described multiple historical discounts and the preferential amount of money of multiple historical price, adopt the mode of linear fit to determine described a and b, thus the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money and the discount of definite described commodity; The condition of subtracting that expires of described commodity is converted to discount, then determines the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money of described commodity and discount.
Alternatively, also comprise that price-sales volume is related to determination module, for the price-sales volume relation representing with exponential relationship of these commodity is converted to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of these commodity by the mode of taking the logarithm, according to the historical sales data of these commodity, use the mode of linear fit to determine once item and the constant term of this price-sales volume relation; And described Method for Sales Forecast module is also for the Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity according to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
According to technical scheme of the present invention, determine its selling price by the promotional form of commodity, then by its sales volume of price-sales volume Relationship Prediction drawing, avoided the limitation of artificial prediction from historical sales data, contribute to improve the accuracy of prediction.When according to promotional form firm sale price, adopt the mode of linear fit to determine the relation completely subtracting between condition and the competitively priced amount of money for the full promotion method subtracting; When according to competitively priced amount of money firm sale price, consider the probability that places an order of sales promotion period.These contribute to further to improve the degree of accuracy of calculating.Because price-sales volume relation is exponential relationship, process complexity for reducing, adopted the mode of taking the logarithm to be converted to linear relationship, contribute to improve counting yield.
Brief description of the drawings
Accompanying drawing, for understanding the present invention better, does not form inappropriate limitation of the present invention.Wherein:
Fig. 1 is according to the schematic diagram of the key step of the method for the prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume of the embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram of the relation between commodity price and the sales volume relevant with the embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram of the relation between commodity price and sales volume after relevant with the embodiment of the present invention taking the logarithm;
Fig. 4 is according to the schematic diagram of the basic structure of the device of the prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume of the embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, example embodiment of the present invention is explained, to help understanding, they should be thought to be only exemplary comprising the various details of the embodiment of the present invention.Therefore, those of ordinary skill in the art will be appreciated that, can make various changes and amendment to the embodiments described herein, and can not deviate from scope and spirit of the present invention.Equally, for clarity and conciseness, in following description, omitted the description to known function and structure.
Fig. 1 is according to the schematic diagram of the key step of the method for the prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume of the embodiment of the present invention.As shown in Figure 1, the method for the prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume of the embodiment of the present invention mainly comprises that following step S11 is to step S13.
Step S11: the competitively priced amount of money of determining these commodity according to the promotional form of commodity.Advertising campaign various informative, but substantially can be divided into land vertically, fullly subtract, the type such as present, on sales volume impact larger be to land vertically and expire to subtract.
Land vertically and refer to the selling price that directly deducts the competitively priced amount of money and draw these commodity on the basis of the former price of commodity.For example the former price of certain commodity is 180 yuan, lands vertically 60 yuan, and the competitively priced amount of money is 60 yuan, and its selling price is 180-60=120 unit.
Full subtracting refers to preferential (deducting from total price) some units when the shopping amount of money reaches certain value, concrete mode has a variety of, for example completely 100 subtract 50 amount of money every 100 of doing shopping and subtract 50, so completely 200 subtract 100, the rest may be inferred, and in addition can regulation the shopping amount of money can not exceed certain value, for example 1000, this situation is generally called to bind to expire and subtracts; And for example ladder completely subtracts, and the preferential amount of money increases with the increase of the shopping amount of money, for example, completely 100 subtract 50, and full 200 subtract 80 etc.
For same commodity, in its sales histories, may participate in the multiple different mode of subtracting that expires.In embodiments of the present invention, the condition that completely subtracts for each time that it can be participated in sales histories is converted to corresponding multiple historical discount.And determine that according to the sales volume of commodity and sales volume and former price these commodity are at multiple preferential amount of money of multiple historical prices completely subtracting under condition, now first obtain actual selling price by sales volume divided by sales volume, then deduct this actual selling price by former price and obtain the competitively priced amount of money.
In the time determining above-mentioned historical discount, using the full amount of money with subtract ratio between the amount of money as discount, for example, completely 100 subtract 50, counting discount is 5 foldings.For other situations, for example ladder completely subtracts, binding completely subtracts, and other factors, for example completely 120 yuan subtract 50 and full 180 yuan subtract difference between 50 etc., adopt in the present embodiment the mode of linear fit to be revised, make the competitively priced amount of money of commodity and concrete expiring between the mode of subtracting, form linear relationship.It is Y=aX+b that linear relationship adopts universal model, and wherein Y represents the preferential amount of money dependent variable of historical price, and X represents historical discount independent variable, and a and b represent respectively once item and constant term; Then according to multiple historical discounts and the preferential amount of money of multiple historical price, adopt for example least square method of mode of linear fit to determine above-mentioned a and b, thus the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money and the discount of definite commodity.
After determining the linear relationship completely subtracting between the competitively priced amount of money and discount in promotion method, just can subtract discount corresponding to promotion method according to expiring of current commodity and determine and completely subtract the competitively priced amount of money that promotion method causes.Subtract promotion method for expiring of current commodity, sometimes need to calculate or directly set by actual conditions the discount of a compromise, the scheme that for example ladder completely subtracts is to expire 100 to subtract 50, and full 200 subtract 80, get discount for (50 ÷ 100+80 ÷ 200) ÷ 2=0.45.
Step S12: the selling price that draws these commodity according to the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity.Consider the general existence of sales promotion period, for example 9:00 to 21:00 of every day; And the quantity of goods orders is also different within the different time periods, cause time period that goods orders quantity is larger and less to carry out the result of sales promotion generally not identical, so need in conjunction with promotion period the selling price of commodity is made to demarcation.First calculate the quantity on order of commodity within each period, for example, whole day is divided into 24 periods of integral point, these commodity are the probability that places an order of this period at the ratio of the quantity on order of a certain period and the quantity on order of whole day; Then by promotion period in the probability that places an order of period of comprising be added the probability that places an order being in the sales promotion period, in fact be also the ratio of the quantity on order of quantity on order in the sales promotion period and whole day, aforementioned account form is more suitable for vicissitudinous situation of sales promotion period.The competitively priced amount of money of these commodity and the probability multiplication that places an order in the sales promotion period drawn to the calibration value of the selling price of these commodity, the selling price of these commodity that this calibration value is used in subsequent calculations.
Step S13: the Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity according to price-sales volume relation of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.The selling price here refers to the calibration value of the selling price of above-mentioned commodity.Price-sales volume relation of these commodity can draw from historical sales data.Inventor finds that price-sales volume relation of commodity is the exponential relationship of negative correlation, i.e. y=axb, and wherein y represents sales volume, x represents price.As shown in Figure 2, Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram of the relation between commodity price and the sales volume relevant with the embodiment of the present invention to its figure line, and in figure, horizontal ordinate represents commodity price, and ordinate represents sales volume.Directly adopt the mode of exponential relationship and curve no doubt can draw a relationships of indices, but deal with more complicated, so in the present embodiment, to the equal sign both sides in historical price-sales volume relation of above-mentioned exponential form take the logarithm respectively (taking 10 the end of as or e the end of as can), obtain a linear relational expression, corresponding figure line as shown in Figure 3.Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram of the relation between commodity price and sales volume after relevant with the embodiment of the present invention taking the logarithm, and wherein the horizontal ordinate of the data point of each diamond block representative and ordinate are respectively the horizontal ordinate of data point and the logarithm value of ordinate of each diamond block representative in Fig. 2.Adopt linear model y=kx+b again, by the mode of linear fit, use commodity price and sales volume data after taking the logarithm to draw once a k and constant term b, the y here represents the logarithm of sales volume, and x represents the logarithm of price.Using the calibration value of the selling price of above-mentioned commodity as this linear model of x substitution, the y value calculating is the logarithm value of the Method for Sales Forecast value of these commodity, and then negate logarithm just obtains the Method for Sales Forecast value under sales promotion conditions.In addition, as using the former price of commodity as this linear model of x substitution, finally can obtain the Method for Sales Forecast value under non-sales promotion conditions, the Method for Sales Forecast value under this sales volume and sales promotion conditions is compared, can show that the sales volume that this sales promotion conditions brings promotes situation.Promote situation in conjunction with this sales volume, retailer can get ready the goods in advance, in order to avoid run out of goods at promotion period.
Fig. 4 is that this device can adopt software to realize, and is arranged in computing machine or smart mobile phone according to the schematic diagram of the basic structure of the device of the prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume of the embodiment of the present invention.As shown in Figure 4, the device 40 of prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume mainly comprises competitively priced amount of money computing module 41, selling price computing module 42 and Method for Sales Forecast module 43.Competitively priced amount of money computing module 41 is for determining the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the promotional form of commodity; Selling price computing module 42 is for drawing the selling price of these commodity according to the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity; Method for Sales Forecast module 43 is for drawing the Method for Sales Forecast value of these commodity according to price-sales volume relation of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
Selling price computing module 42 also can be used for: calculate the place an order probability of these commodity within the sales promotion period, the probability that places an order in the sales promotion period is the quantity on order of these commodity within the described sales promotion period and the ratio of whole day quantity on order; The competitively priced amount of money of these commodity and the above-mentioned probability multiplication that places an order are drawn to the selling price of these commodity.
Competitively priced amount of money computing module 41 also can be used for: according to the historical sales data of these commodity, multiple conditions that completely subtract are wherein converted to corresponding multiple historical discount, and determine that according to the sales volume of commodity and sales volume and former price these commodity are at described multiple preferential amount of money of multiple historical prices completely subtracting under condition; Set up linear model Y=aX+b, wherein Y represents the preferential amount of money dependent variable of historical price, and X represents historical discount independent variable, and a and b represent respectively once item and constant term; Then according to above-mentioned multiple historical discounts and the preferential amount of money of multiple historical price, adopt the mode of linear fit to determine described a and b, thus the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money and the discount of definite commodity; The condition of subtracting that expires of commodity is converted to discount, then determines the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money of described commodity and discount.
The device 40 of prediction commodity sales promotion sales volume also can comprise that price-sales volume is related to determination module (not shown), for the price-sales volume relation representing with exponential relationship of these commodity is converted to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of these commodity by the mode of taking the logarithm, according to the historical sales data of these commodity, use the mode of linear fit to determine once item and the constant term of this price-sales volume relation; And Method for Sales Forecast module also can be used for: the Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity according to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
According to the technical scheme of the embodiment of the present invention, determine its selling price by the promotional form of commodity, then by its sales volume of price-sales volume Relationship Prediction drawing, avoided the limitation of artificial prediction from historical sales data, contribute to improve the accuracy of prediction.When according to promotional form firm sale price, adopt the mode of linear fit to determine the relation completely subtracting between condition and the competitively priced amount of money for the full promotion method subtracting; When according to competitively priced amount of money firm sale price, consider the probability that places an order of sales promotion period.These contribute to further to improve the degree of accuracy of calculating.Because price-sales volume relation is exponential relationship, process complexity for reducing, adopted the mode of taking the logarithm to be converted to linear relationship, contribute to improve counting yield.
Ultimate principle of the present invention has below been described in conjunction with specific embodiments, but, it is to be noted, for those of ordinary skill in the art, can understand whole or any steps or the parts of method and apparatus of the present invention, can be in the network of any calculation element (comprising processor, storage medium etc.) or calculation element, realized with hardware, firmware, software or their combination, this is that those of ordinary skill in the art use their basic programming skill just can realize in the situation that having read explanation of the present invention.
Therefore, object of the present invention can also realize by move a program or batch processing on any calculation element.Described calculation element can be known fexible unit.Therefore, object of the present invention also can be only by providing the program product that comprises the program code of realizing described method or device to realize.That is to say, such program product also forms the present invention, and the storage medium that stores such program product also forms the present invention.Obviously, described storage medium can be any storage medium of developing in any known storage medium or future.
Also it is pointed out that in apparatus and method of the present invention, obviously, each parts or each step can decompose and/or reconfigure.These decomposition and/or reconfigure and should be considered as equivalents of the present invention.And, carry out the step of above-mentioned series of processes and can order naturally following the instructions carry out in chronological order, but do not need necessarily to carry out according to time sequencing.Some step can walk abreast or carry out independently of one another.
Above-mentioned embodiment, does not form limiting the scope of the invention.Those skilled in the art should be understood that, depend on designing requirement and other factors, various amendments, combination, sub-portfolio can occur and substitute.Any amendment of doing within the spirit and principles in the present invention, be equal to and replace and improvement etc., within all should being included in protection domain of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. a method of predicting commodity sales promotion sales volume, is characterized in that, comprising:
Determine the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the promotional form of commodity;
Draw the selling price of these commodity according to the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity;
Draw the Method for Sales Forecast value of these commodity according to price-sales volume relation of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
2. method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, show that according to the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity the step of the selling price of these commodity comprises:
Calculate the place an order probability of these commodity within the sales promotion period, the probability that places an order in the described sales promotion period is the quantity on order of these commodity within the described sales promotion period and the ratio of whole day quantity on order;
By the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity with described in the probability multiplication that places an order draw the selling price of these commodity.
3. method according to claim 1 and 2, is characterized in that, described promotional form comprises full subtracting; The step of determining the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the promotional form of commodity comprises:
According to the historical sales data of these commodity, multiple conditions that completely subtract are wherein converted to corresponding multiple historical discount, and determine that according to the sales volume of commodity and sales volume and former price these commodity are at described multiple preferential amount of money of multiple historical prices completely subtracting under condition;
Set up linear model Y=aX+b, wherein Y represents the preferential amount of money dependent variable of described historical price, and X represents described historical discount independent variable, and a and b represent respectively once item and constant term; Then according to described multiple historical discounts and the preferential amount of money of multiple historical price, adopt the mode of linear fit to determine described a and b, thus the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money and the discount of definite described commodity;
The condition of subtracting that expires of described commodity is converted to discount, then determines the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money of described commodity and discount.
4. method according to claim 1 and 2, is characterized in that,
Before the step of the described Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity, also comprise: the price-sales volume relation representing with exponential relationship of these commodity is converted to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of these commodity by the mode of taking the logarithm, according to the historical sales data of these commodity, use the mode of linear fit to determine once item and the constant term of this price-sales volume relation;
The step of the described Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity comprises: the Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity according to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
5. a device of predicting commodity sales promotion sales volume, is characterized in that, comprising:
Competitively priced amount of money computing module, for determining the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the promotional form of commodity;
Selling price computing module, for drawing the selling price of these commodity according to the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity;
Method for Sales Forecast module, for drawing the Method for Sales Forecast value of these commodity according to price-sales volume relation of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
6. device according to claim 5, is characterized in that, described selling price computing module also for:
Calculate the place an order probability of these commodity within the sales promotion period, the probability that places an order in the described sales promotion period is the quantity on order of these commodity within the described sales promotion period and the ratio of whole day quantity on order;
By the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity with described in the probability multiplication that places an order draw the selling price of these commodity.
7. according to the device described in claim 5 or 6, it is characterized in that, described competitively priced amount of money computing module also for:
According to the historical sales data of these commodity, multiple conditions that completely subtract are wherein converted to corresponding multiple historical discount, and determine that according to the sales volume of commodity and sales volume and former price these commodity are at described multiple preferential amount of money of multiple historical prices completely subtracting under condition;
Set up linear model Y=aX+b, wherein Y represents the preferential amount of money dependent variable of described historical price, and X represents described historical discount independent variable, and a and b represent respectively once item and constant term; Then according to described multiple historical discounts and the preferential amount of money of multiple historical price, adopt the mode of linear fit to determine described a and b, thus the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money and the discount of definite described commodity;
The condition of subtracting that expires of described commodity is converted to discount, then determines the competitively priced amount of money of these commodity according to the linear relationship between the competitively priced amount of money of described commodity and discount.
8. according to the device described in claim 5 or 6, it is characterized in that,
Also comprise that price-sales volume is related to determination module, for the price-sales volume relation representing with exponential relationship of these commodity is converted to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of these commodity by the mode of taking the logarithm, according to the historical sales data of these commodity, use the mode of linear fit to determine once item and the constant term of this price-sales volume relation;
And described Method for Sales Forecast module is also for the Method for Sales Forecast value that draws these commodity according to the price-sales volume relation representing with linear relationship of the selling price of these commodity and these commodity.
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