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Glas et al., 2022 - Google Patents

Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys

Glas et al., 2022

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Document ID
9479129651257069471
Author
Glas A
Hartmann M
Publication year
Publication venue
Quantitative Economics

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Snippet

Although survey‐based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often …
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