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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • Trump “confirms” so many things, but few of them are true. None of Iranian Kurdish parties have confirmed receiving arms.

    The absolutely only instance I have seen of protesters in Iran being armed with firearms (and I’ve watched a lot of footage), was a day-time protest in the Kurdish-majority mountainous borderland. Since there was a risk of authorities spilling blood, 4 old guys (appearance well over 50 years of age) in traditional clothing were present at a protest in an open area, carrying hunting rifles which looked older than the guys. They could have, theoretically, bought time for others to escape by offering some counter-fire for a minute or two. But on that protest, authorities did not attack. Probably because the whole town was Kurdish and cops decided to stay home.

    Also I apologize for re-posting, but:

    Kurdish Iranian opposition groups deny claims of receiving weapons from US

    Mohammed Nazif Qaderi, a senior official from the opposition Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), told Rudaw that “those statements made are baseless and we haven’t received any weapons.

    /…/

    Kako Aliyar, a member of the leadership committee of the Kurdish Iranian opposition party Komala, told Rudaw that "as our own party, no weapons have come to us and we haven’t received anything, we’re not even aware of the matter.

    /…/

    Amjad Hussein Panahi, head of communications for Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan, also told Rudaw, “We assure you we haven’t received a single bullet or weapon from any country or place, and we’re not aware of the existence of such a thing; what we have is our own.”

    /…/

    Hamno Naqshbandi, a member of the general command of the Kurdistan National Army affiliated with the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), said that “Donald Trump’s message is unclear to us. What is there is that we as our army have in no way received weapons from the US or any other country, not even a single bullet."



  • A journalist asked Iranian Kurdish parties. Nobody could confirm receiving any weapons.

    Let’s not assume something is true because Trump says it it. He has a long track record of lying about every issue and changing his words daily.

    Kurdish Iranian opposition groups deny claims of receiving weapons from US

    Mohammed Nazif Qaderi, a senior official from the opposition Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), told Rudaw that “those statements made are baseless and we haven’t received any weapons.

    /…/

    Kako Aliyar, a member of the leadership committee of the Kurdish Iranian opposition party Komala, told Rudaw that "as our own party, no weapons have come to us and we haven’t received anything, we’re not even aware of the matter.

    /…/

    Amjad Hussein Panahi, head of communications for Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan, also told Rudaw, “We assure you we haven’t received a single bullet or weapon from any country or place, and we’re not aware of the existence of such a thing; what we have is our own.”

    /…/

    Hamno Naqshbandi, a member of the general command of the Kurdistan National Army affiliated with the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), said that “Donald Trump’s message is unclear to us. What is there is that we as our army have in no way received weapons from the US or any other country, not even a single bullet."





  • These “robots” are actually ground drones, and the term “robot” is being widely misused.

    They can’t identify the allegiance of a soldier. The operator will see, consider and then shoot. It’s better than going out there and getting shot at.

    If you don’t know the state of the art, it’s easy to think they are robots, but they have the same autonomy level as an FPV drone. They are automated to the degree that you can tell them “drive 50 clicks north-east and stop”.

    Really advanced versions will have a local algorithm to track and shoot an aerial target, once the operator decides that it’s a target. Because in air defense, latency means losing.

    However, swarming weapons are a cause for concern in near future, because in those cases, one soldier may end up controlling 100+ weapons and likely won’t have a good overview of the situation.




  • To manage without an inverter and charge your bike almost directly from solar (soldering and electronics skills needed) I would consider an adjustable DC/DC converter.

    1. Small step-down converter with current limit:
    Input voltage range: 6-40.00V
    Output voltage range: 0V-32.00V
    Output current: 0-5.1A
    Output power range: 0-160W
    
    

    https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005006294300036.html

    1. Big step-down converter with current limit:
    Input voltage: DC12-80V (can not be used for 72V battery)
    Output voltage: 2.5V-50V adjustable (only buck) (maximum output voltage = input voltage * 0.8)
    Output current: 20A (MAX) 25A overcurrent
    Maximum power: 600W
    Conversion efficiency:  93%
    

    https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005007391865816.html

    1. With serious and silent cooling, dual displays (voltage and current), adaptive current limiting that considers temperature, input up to 120 V DC (be careful, this voltage level is deadly):
    Input: DC 25-120V
    Output: DC 1.2-75V adjustable
    Current: 20A (MAX)
    Power: 600W (Reduce current based on heat dissipation when voltage difference is high)
    

    https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005010659062631.html

    The downside of a simple converter is that it doesn’t know about the optimal loading point of your solar panel (doesn’t do MPPT or maximum power point tracking). If you want that (it gives 30% more productivity), consider an entry level solar charge controller, but it must support 48V battery mode (I notice that your charger outputs 63V, the termination voltage of a 48V battery is usually 64V) and manual fine adjustment of the termination voltage (to bring it lower).

    This might work since it appears to have a “user” (user defined) battery type:

    https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005010080097662.html

    Manual here to find out if it actually would:

    https://www.nikom.biz/pic_info/A656017/Homysun-MPPT-Solar-Charge-Controller-datasheet-60A.pdf

    Note: dial in less than your full battery voltage and don’t push the Chinese products to their maximum advertised current. Your upmost output voltage + voltage ripple + measurement error must stay below the full battery voltage. Of course, you must have a balancer and BMS (to stop everything in an emergency) on your battery. I also recommend a timer.

    If you need to step the panel voltage upwards, consider a “boost converter” or “step up converter” instead, or wire two panels in series and use a step down converter.


  • Yes, I have seen video of an Ukrainian interceptor blow up a Shahed strike drone above a city where people speak Arabic (and I’ve seen an US fighter plane fail the same task).

    Ukraine needs missile defense. Missile defense is hard to come by and slow to develop.

    However, Ukraine has the most advanced antidrone defense in the world, thanks to endless practise… in part due to Iran supplying Russia with blueprints for Shahed-136 production about 3 years ago (Russia has since surpassed Iran in both volume and skill, again due to endless practise against Ukraine).

    Thus, Ukraine tries to bargain with Arab countries to get whatevever remains of available Patriot PAC-3 supplies. In return, it offers cheap interceptors, advise about how to use and make them, how to jam navigation and communication, how to use PAC-3 more efficiently, etc.

    I am not aware of any Ukrainian attack on Iran.

    Overall, Iran should have absolutely no reason to complain about Ukrainian involvement, since they have supplied Russia. And besides, Ukrainian involvement is not limitless - so far Ukrainians have been helping defend third countries (which made the mistake of hosting US bases, but regardless have reasons to defend their airspace).

    Yes, it’s a mess. I hope it ends, as there is no positive outcome from continuing. Currently the best way of ending it seems like the US ceasing its campaign (not happening, a third aircraft carrier is moving towards the Middle East) and Arab countries negotiating with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for traffic. But all of this involves the orange person admitting a big mistake. He is currently doubling down instead.

    Ukraine has its own interests (get missile defense supplies from anywhere) and will pursue them anyway. Can’t buy from China or South Korea, supply from Japan is tiny, supply from Germany is of the wrong type or not yet started up, supply from France and Italy is very limited - they will find any missile defense anywhere and try to see if it can be bought (while rushing to make their own based on the Soviet S-300).


  • I was going to write down some similar points, so I thank you for writing instead of me and upvote.

    Some additional notes:

    • I like the concept that stopping violence and investigating crimes are separate jobs, with separate qualifications. Stopping violence is a time-critical job (one must prevent injury or loss of life, restore everyone’s freedom of choice and if possible, normal life) and may require both skills of negotiation and using non-lethal violence (it is highly important not to escalate or do irreversible harm). Investigating is a whole different business.

    • Stopping violence in a future society likely has both a local component (the first to arrive upon an emergency broadcast are those who live nearby).

    • Stopping some forms of violence in a future society is very likely highly technical (an person reasonably trained in martial arts is expected to be capable of doing air surveillance, identifying a drone or determining and logging that it refuses to identify, subsequently producing an EMP or using a microwave / laser / kinetic air defense effector). The same would apply for ground rovers or surface / subsurface drones which behave agressively. Assaulting a person with hands, a sharp object or slug thrower would be considered a very antiquated flavour of violent crime.

    • A key question in the development of “law enforcement” (or whatever comes after it) will probably be: how to prevent loss of life. In case a person is out of control, I would expect to see unmanned systems helping with negotiation (because they have no lives to endanger) and wielding pepper spray.

    • I would expect unmanned systems delivering medical supplies and medical assistance literally at the pace of a missile, so I think a well equipped hospital will have few launch tubes ready with medical supplies and rescue / resuscitation robots. I think a high subsonic speed would be appropriate for arrival in most neigbourhoods, while delivery to remote locations might require supersonic speed and leaving the dense layer of the atmosphere. After a medical drone lands, I think most of them would be capable of walking, swimming or diving, and a select few might also cut or pry apart wreckage.

    • In case a crime has happened and violence is no longer ongoing, I like the concept that an investigative team is assembled by randomly selecting people with certain qualifications, who can call up experts if they run out of understanding. Because having the same person investigate twice or more in a row would invite foul play.

    So, tehcnically my predictions veer towards something you’d get from the Culture stories by Iain M. Banks. Just without the hyperintelligent AI, because I’m not sure people would want to create that, or whether it’s possible.

    As for laws… that’s a good one. In an anarchist society, laws are not hard-coded. Whatever social bodies deal with conflict resolution would likely not focus on the letter of any text, even if they would have a text they can refer to.

    Jurisdiction is an interesting concept. In a stated society, the local state claims jurisdiction through controlling territory. Jurisdiction in anarchy would be far more messy.


  • Writing from Estonia, Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk (on the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea), whereby they export at least 30% of their oil, but perhaps even 40% in recent times - have indeed been very intense during the past week.

    Day after day, large swarms go and many hit their targets despite heavy-handed air defense. The smoke of burning oil is visible to 70 km distance and some confused “birds” end up landing here (one hit a concrete smokestack, another fell in an empty field). The traffic jam of cargo ships and oil / gas tankers on the Gulf of Finland is considerable, sailors describe it “like a new city appearing on water”.

    If this is what it takes to force Putin to end his war, I have no complaints.

    But we should be aware that due to Trump’s simultaneous adventure in the Persian Gulf, which was entirely avoidable, and has entirely predictable results, a global economic recession is currently a realistic outcome.

    If I were in the shoes of Zelensky, I would advise Trump: “please, do save the global economy by ending your adventure in the Persian Gulf, we cannot have a pillow fight with Russia, they are extremely serious and not easily dissuaded (have been attacking 4 years)”.

    Meanwhile, his statemement does offer a pathway to somewhere…

    “If Russia is ready not to strike Ukraine’s energy, then we’ll respond by not attacking theirs.”

    …it’s merely that Russia has shown willingness to cause a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine by destroying their energy infrastructure in the winter that passed, and Ukrainians now have very little reason to believe mere words that it won’t repeat next winter. There will have to be at least ink on paper to assure it won’t happen again.



  • It’s not unprecedented, a KMT leader has visited the mainland at least once before, about 10 years ago.

    But the sad reality under this move currently seems to be: Trump has shown that the current US administration is not only unwilling to defend allies based on principle (mostly dumping Ukraine), but also fairly incapable of defending allies (Arab countries), and certainly not effective at defending a place on the doorstep of the PRC, against the PRC.

    Taiwan has poor options: dependence on imported energy (vulnerability to blockade), limited distance from China (within drone swarm reach), no strategic deterrent (no nuclear weapons).

    The PRC views gaining control over Taiwan as an important thing to do - to the point of building a replica of the Taiwanese presidential compound for special forces to practise in, holding air force trainings with over a hundred of planes in a threatening flight pattern, and practising a naval blockade. It continues to build up military capabilities, and some of these are really convincing, even if sea introduces a factor of luck (seas have ruined invasions before).

    In such conditions, Taiwanese politicians will likely view it as reasonable to start up diplomacy with the PRC to reduce tensions and also buy time to adapt - in the hope that their strategic ally recovers (e.g. gets a sane president and reliable foreign policy) and independence can be retained against pressure and threats.

    If the US does not get over Trump and develop sane administration practises and predictable principles soon, Taiwan may find itself negotiating favourable terms of surrender. Currently, it’s not so bad yet - they will be negotiating to normalize relations.

    It’s really sad. The US population was manipulated to elect an insane president, and this individual has already caused irreversible global damage to long-standing alliances and partnerships.