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nohaybanda [he/him]

  • 7 Posts
  • 873 Comments
Joined 6 years ago
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Cake day: October 5th, 2020

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  • This is nonsense. Rearm? Did they run out of ammo or something? Is the US crouched behind a chest high wall, reloading? Does bringing another 10k goons in the next week or so make an invasion suddenly viable?

    The IRGC has powerfully asserted their control of the strait. Maybe the US and their rabid dog will try shit during the ceasefire, but the dynamic doesn’t change. The economic pressure that has been asserted is measured in months and years, in permanently changed security calculations across the ME and SEA. Letting a hundred or even a few hundred ships through, is not going to be enough to relieve any of that pressure.

    If anything, the US being seen as taking away the hope for a reprieve (I don’t care about western audiences, the actual players in the region matter here) will make things ten times worse


  • Never in my life have I seen anything like the Ramadan war. If your point of comparison is “well at some point they stopped” then I don’t know what to say. We know too little at this point, there is reason to be wary but giving in to doomerism is not the way.

    It’s the middle of the night here and I need to (try and) get back to sleep, but I think it’s worth diving into the chain of events over the last few days. After what appears to have been a failed attempt to exfiltrate Irans enriched uranium, the US delivered an unhinged nuclear and genocidal threat. Closely following this Pakistan, a nuclear armed regional player, delivers Irans 10 point plan and is claimed to have brokered the ceasefire, which the US is (pretending?) to accept.

    Maybe the big satan really want to use that time to regroup and try again, but I fail to see how that can be described as Iran backing down and not the US.