Papers by Horizon Research Publishing(HRPUB) Kevin Nelson
Universal Journal of Public Health, 2025
Short-form videos, or “Reels,” have become increasingly popular on social media platforms, servin... more Short-form videos, or “Reels,” have become increasingly popular on social media platforms, serving both entertainment and informational purposes. However, excessive viewing of Reels can lead to negative effects. This study conducted a survey of 33 participants to examine how Reels addiction affects users. The results indicate that most participants watch Reels primarily for entertainment, and algorithm-driven suggestions encourage prolonged viewing. Overuse may lead to compulsive scrolling, which negatively affects productivity, emotional well-being, and real-life social engagement. The 33 participants shared their perspectives through responses submitted via Google Forms. Most reported that extended screen time resulted in physical discomfort, digital fatigue, and sleep disturbances. Regular overconsumption of such content has also been associated with reduced attention spans and increased procrastination, particularly in academic contexts. The design of social media platforms stimulates dopamine release, which reinforces habitual usage and increases the addictive nature of Reels. Additional concerns include the spread of misinformation, heightened cybersecurity risks, and threats to data privacy. Nevertheless, moderate engagement can enhance creativity and help relieve stress. To avoid harmful consequences, users are encouraged to set screen time limits and participate in offline activities. This study emphasizes the importance of adopting a balanced approach to Reels consumption, enabling users to enjoy its benefits while minimizing potential drawbacks.
Universal Journal of Public Health, 2025
People with underlying health conditions, including people living with HIV/AIDs (PLWHA), are at g... more People with underlying health conditions, including people living with HIV/AIDs (PLWHA), are at great risk of contracting COVID-19, and when they do, are likely to suffer severe symptoms. PLWHA face heightened risks as a result of immune compromise, stigma-driven healthcare avoidance, and socioeconomic marginalisation, all of which were determinants extremely relevant in Nigeria’s high-HIV-burden settings. This underlines the imperative for population-specific insights, a fact emphasized in all COVID-19 communications. This study, therefore, examined information sources, knowledge, and adherence towards COVID-19 among PLWHA in Enugu State, Nigeria. Data were gathered from 300 people living with HIV/AIDS with a 36-item four-point Likert scale questionnaire, while data analysis was done through descriptive and inferential statistics. Results indicated high exposure to COVID-19 information among PLWHA in Enugu State, Nigeria, with healthcare workers (M=3.31, SD=1.07) and social media/internet (M=3.19, SD=0.86) as the dominant sources of information. Knowledge of COVID-19 was high among PLWHA, while educational level (ꞵ=0.043, p=0.010), income level (ꞵ=0.022, p=0.041), information from family/friends/neighbours (ꞵ=0.081, p=0.001) and billboards (ꞵ=0.066, p=0.004) were positively associated with higher COVID-19 knowledge. In addition, there was a moderately positive perception of COVID-19 among PLWHA. However, they had a lower perception of the vulnerability of people with underlying health conditions. Receiving information from healthcare workers (ꞵ=0.073, p=0.001) was associated with positive perceptions of COVID-19, while exposure to television (ꞵ=0.110, p=0.020) predicted negative perceptions. Adherence with COVID-19 preventive practices was significantly higher among males compared to females (ꞵ=0.171, p=0.000), urban residence (ꞵ=0.140, p=0.003) and exposure to billboards (β = 0.077, p = 0.021). The findings of this study reinforce the need for targeted messages through trusted, contextually appropriate channels to address PLWHA’s distinct vulnerabilities.
Universal Journal of Public Health, 2025
Colorectal cancer represents a leading cause of cancer-related morbidity and mortality in Jordan,... more Colorectal cancer represents a leading cause of cancer-related morbidity and mortality in Jordan, yet public awareness and screening adherence remain suboptimal. This study assessed colorectal cancer knowledge, screening awareness, and barriers to colonoscopy among Jordanian adults. A questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted at Al-Hussein Salt New Hospital, evaluating participants' knowledge of colorectal cancer symptoms and risk factors, awareness of screening methods, and perceived barriers to colonoscopy. Among 222 participants (61.7% male, median age 37.0 years [IQR 28.0-50.0]), 48.2% demonstrated a low knowledge level (median score 5.0 [IQR 1.0-9.0]). Only 23.4% were aware of colorectal cancer screening, with 22.1% familiar with specific methods. Despite this, 81.1% expressed willingness to undergo a colonoscopy if recommended. A family history of colorectal cancer paradoxically correlated with reduced screening intention (p=0.046). The predominant barrier was the misconception that asymptomatic individuals do not require screening (reported by 45.2%). These findings reveal significant gaps in colorectal cancer knowledge and screening awareness in Jordan. While willingness to screen is high when advised by physicians, prevalent misconceptions—particularly the belief that symptoms warrant screening—underscore the need for targeted public health campaigns. Improving education on asymptomatic screening and addressing cultural perceptions could enhance early detection and reduce colorectal cancer burden.
Universal Journal of Public Health, 2025
Physical activity offers numerous health benefits, including improved physiological function and ... more Physical activity offers numerous health benefits, including improved physiological function and a reduced risk of metabolic diseases. This study aimed to evaluate body composition and nutritional intake of individuals engaged in different levels of physical activity. Body composition metrics, including BMI, BMR, body fat mass, visceral fat, subcutaneous fat, and muscle mass were measured. In addition, macronutrient (energy, protein, carbohydrates, fat) and micronutrient (calcium, iron, vitamin B1) intake was assessed using a 24-hour dietary recall. A total of 283 participants (mean age 31.5 ± 11.21 years, 55.5% men, 44.5% women) were classified into two groups based on different physical activity levels of high (N=144) and low (N=139). The high physical activity group exhibited significantly higher BMR (p< 0.001) and muscle mass (p< 0.001), but lower subcutaneous fat (p< 0.001). No significant differences were observed for BMI (p= 0.510) and visceral fat (p= 0.390). In terms of dietary intake, the high physical activity group consumed significantly higher protein (p< 0.001) with lower carbohydrate (p= 0.001), but no significant differences were observed in energy (p= 0.541) and fat (p= 0.913) consumption. However, this group had lower intake of calcium (p< 0.001) and vitamin B1 (p= 0.001). This study highlights the influence of varying physical activity levels on body composition and provides a comparative analysis of nutritional intake across different physical activity groups.
Universal Journal of Public Health, 2026
Background: Husband's support in the birthing process can reduce maternal anxiety and has a posit... more Background: Husband's support in the birthing process can reduce maternal anxiety and has a positive impact on childbirth. Purpose: This study aims to determine the effect of the psychophysiological education model of childbirth on husbands' activeness in supporting childbirth in the Muara Enim Community Health Centers. Method: The research design is a quasi-experimental pretest-posttest approach. The population of this study was pregnant women with a gestational age of 28-36 weeks. Respondents in this study were 86, divided into two groups. The research was conducted in April-December 2024. The intervention group was provided with systematic education on birth psychophysiology, while the control group received standard care. Data collection was conducted using a pre-test before the intervention and a post-test on husbands' knowledge and behavior. Delivery and postpartum outcomes were measured using observation and questionnaires. Data analysis used chi-square, Mann-Whitney, and Friedman tests. Finding: The results showed that the husband's knowledge and behavior increased significantly (p-value 0.000). Maternal anxiety, labor pain, labor duration and birth experience were better in the intervention group (p-value 0.000), although lacerations and APGAR scores were not significant. Postpartum outcomes showed no difference in involution and breastfeeding practices, but self-efficacy and postpartum depression were better in the intervention group (p value <0.05). Conclusion and Recommendation: Husband education using a psychophysiological model can be an alternative to the importance of the husband's presence in childbirth preparation to improve good birth and postpartum outcomes.
Universal Journal of Public Health, 2025
BACKGROUND: Productivity in traditional iron forging is strongly influenced by environmental heat... more BACKGROUND: Productivity in traditional iron forging is strongly influenced by environmental heat, heavy physical workload, and poor ergonomic practices. In Bali's forging sector, workers are consistently exposed to intense radiant heat, repetitive manual tasks, and inadequate work-rest schedules, all of which contribute to physiological strain and musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the combined effects of environmental heat stress, task-related physical load, and organizational work patterns on worker health and productivity. An integrated ergonomic model was developed to examine how thermal exposure, workload intensity, rest duration, and MSDs interact to influence performance in traditional forging activities. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 280 male forging workers aged 21-52 years with 2-9 years of work experience. Physiological indicators-including body mass index (BMI), pulse rate, body surface temperature, and MSD scores-were measured before and after work. Environmental heat exposure was assessed using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index. Productivity was evaluated through workers' pulse response during activity and MSD-related discomfort. A Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approach was employed to analyze pathways linking ergonomic risks to productivity outcomes. RESULTS: Productivity showed a significant decline in relation to task demands, including workload (β =-0.075) and MSD scores (β =-0.110). Organizational factors, particularly prolonged work duration (β =-0.105), further reduced performance, highlighting the importance of structured work-rest cycles. Environmental conditions exerted the strongest negative effect on productivity, with WBGT (β =-0.694) and body surface temperature (β =-0.101) indicating substantial thermal strain (WBGT 29.8°C-30.7°C; post-activity temperature 38.7°C-41.1°C).
Universal Journal of Public Health, 2026
Leisure activities are an important occupational domain for post-stroke patients, as many individ... more Leisure activities are an important occupational domain for post-stroke patients, as many individuals experience significant declines in this area. The aim of this study is to analyze the factors associated with leisure activities and quality of life among post-stroke patients within an associative framework, rather than a causal relationship. This study used a cross-sectional design. The sample of 112 respondents was included, with inclusion criteria that were pre-established. Data collection techniques involved using quality of life instruments, as well as questionnaires on perceptions, participation, self-efficacy, social support, spirituality, and independence. The data were analyzed using path analysis with Amos software. Results showed significant direct effects (p-value <0.05) on: self-efficacy on participation, social support on participation, spirituality on independence, participation on independence, spirituality on QoL, and self-efficacy on QoL. On the other hand, direct effects that were not significant (p-value >0.05) included: perceptions on participation, spirituality on participation, social support on independence, perceptions on independence, self-efficacy on independence, perceptions on QoL, independence on QoL, participation on QoL, and social support on QoL. Indirect effects of variables of perception, self-efficacy, social support, and spirituality through either independence or participation showed no significant impact (p-value >0.05). A multidimensional approach involving management of physical, emotional, and social aspects is crucial for effectively supporting the recovery of stroke patients.
International Journal of Human Movement and Sports Sciences, 2025
This study aims to analyze the effect of two communication methods, verbal and demonstration, in ... more This study aims to analyze the effect of two communication methods, verbal and demonstration, in the SMCR communication program on improving high jump ability and team communication effectiveness (SECTS). The research used a quantitative approach with a pretest–posttest experimental design using a paired sample t-test. The sample consisted of 10 athletes with varying Functional Movement Screen (FMS) scores divided into two categories: high FMS (≥18) and moderate (<18). The analysis results showed that both methods resulted in significant improvements in physical performance (high jump) and interpersonal communication (SECTS), with a significance value (p) <0.001 for both variables. However, the demonstration method provided higher improvements in athletes with high FMS, while the verbal method was more effective for the moderate FMS group. These findings indicate that the effectiveness of communication methods is highly dependent on the athlete's functional movement capacity. The discussion of the results shows that coach communication serves not only as technical instruction but also as a means of fostering cohesion and communication efficiency within the team. This implies that coaches need to consider the level of motor readiness and individual characteristics when selecting a communication approach. Integrating a pedagogical approach into a sports communication strategy can be key to optimizing the coach-athlete relationship and achieving maximum performance in training and competition.
International Journal of Human Movement and Sports Sciences, 2025
This study aimed to examine the attitudes of employees in sports organizations in the Kingdom of ... more This study aimed to examine the attitudes of employees in sports organizations in the Kingdom of Bahrain toward hosting sporting events. A descriptive survey was conducted with 94 employees selected through simple random sampling. The results revealed a strong inclination among employees to support the hosting of various types of sporting events, with a marked preference for small and regional events over large global competitions. Although employees showed a stronger inclination toward smaller-scale events, the generally high response levels across all event types indicate a well-established hosting culture and a clear readiness among staff to support future sporting events of different scales. Economic factors emerged as the most influential motivators, whereas social factors exerted comparatively less influence. Statistical analysis demonstrated a significant positive relationship (p < 0.01) between motivational factors and preferred event types, indicating that higher motivation levels were consistently associated with greater willingness to support event hosting. This relationship suggests that understanding staff motivations can help predict their preferences and guide strategic planning for sports event hosting. Based on these findings, the study recommends adopting sustainable and well-planned strategies for hosting sporting events in line with broader development visions, while also encouraging further research on sports event hosting and its sustainability across wider contexts.
International Journal of Human Movement and Sports Sciences, 2025
The problem of student cohesion in high school shows several interrelated aspects. Symptoms of de... more The problem of student cohesion in high school shows several interrelated aspects. Symptoms of depression often appear among high school students; poor communication between parents and children, negative life experiences, and pressure from academic aspects are closely related to depression. In this study, the author intends to examine the cohesion of students through differentiation of movement tasks in physical education learning for high school students with rhythmic activities. The research design used in this study is a quasi-experimental design. A total of 70 male and female student respondents were selected to be involved in this study, with the experimental group consisting of 34 students (physical education learning differentiation of movement tasks through rhythmic activities) and 36 students in the control group (conventional physical activities without differentiation of movement tasks). The results of this study indicate that the relationship among students has made significant progress thanks to the application of movement task differentiation in sports. The results of the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test confirmed that there was a difference in the increase in cohesion between the experimental group and the control group, with a value of U = 190 and a p-value of 0.001. In this study, the group using movement task differentiation in rhythmic activities showed a significantly higher increase in cohesion compared to the control group, which followed physical education without movement task differentiation in rhythmic activities. This result provides a new innovation in physical education learning in developing students' attitudes.
International Journal of Human Movement and Sports Sciences, 2025
Cricket performance is influenced not only by player skill but also by the interaction between th... more Cricket performance is influenced not only by player skill but also by the interaction between the ball and the playing surface. The purpose of this study was to examine how different types of cricket balls behave on varied pitch surfaces in terms of their coefficient of restitution (COR). This study investigated the coefficient of restitution (COR) of five types of cricket balls-soft tennis (Cosco and Wilson), hard tennis (Headly), synthetic (SS), and leather (SG)-when dropped from four heights (120 cm, 150 cm, 180 cm, and 200 cm) onto three pitch types: turf, astro turf, and concrete. Bounce heights were recorded using high-speed videography, and data were analyzed using ANOVA and LSD tests. Results showed that the soft and hard tennis balls (Cosco, Wilson, and Headly) had significantly higher COR values compared to the synthetic and leather balls (SS and SG) across all pitch types. However, there was no significant difference in COR among the three tennis balls, nor between the synthetic and leather balls. Additionally, pitch type-whether turf, astro turf, or concrete-did not significantly influence the COR for any ball type. The study concludes that ball material and construction notably affect restitution, with tennis balls demonstrating higher bounce. In contrast, the pitch surface has a minimal impact on COR. These insights are useful for coaches, players, and equipment manufacturers in making evidence-based decisions for training and competitive play.
International Journal of Human Movement and Sports Sciences, 2025
Swimming is a sport that requires the integration of technical skill, muscular strength, core sta... more Swimming is a sport that requires the integration of technical skill, muscular strength, core stability, and cardiovascular endurance to achieve optimal performance. This study aimed to examine the impact of integrating plank exercises with the utilization of swim fins on the 50-meter freestyle swimming speed of adolescent swimmers in a swimming club in Medan, Indonesia. A quasi-experimental design with a pre-test and post-test control group was established. Thirty-six swimmers were randomly assigned to either the experimental group (n = 18), which received plank training and used fins during practice, or the control group (n = 18), which continued conventional training. The intervention lasted for 16 sessions. Data was analyzed using Shapiro-Wilk normality tests, Levene's homogeneity test, paired-sample t-tests, and independent-sample t-tests. The results showed that the experimental group observed a statistically significant increase in swimming speed (mean difference: 0.6575 seconds, p < 0.05), greater than that of the control group (mean difference: 0.18875 seconds, p < 0.05). The results suggest that plank exercises and fins utilization contribute to enhanced core stability, improved body alignment, and increased propulsion efficiency during freestyle swimming. This study highlights the potential of integrating dry-land core training and in-water assistive devices to optimize swimming performance. Future research should involve larger sample sizes, longer interventions, and additional biomechanical or physiological assessments to further validate these findings and explore underlying mechanisms.
International Journal of Human Movement and Sports Sciences, 2025
This study aimed to: (1) develop a model construct of integrated life skills to enhance fair play... more This study aimed to: (1) develop a model construct of integrated life skills to enhance fair play in football; (2) evaluate the validity of the integrated life skills model; (3) assess the practicality of the model's user guide; and (4) examine the effectiveness of the model in promoting fair play among youth football players. This research employed a Research and Development (R&D) design using the 4D model—Define, Design, Develop, and Disseminate. The validation process involved seven expert validators, while feasibility was assessed by seven coaches from five football academies. The practicality test was conducted by six coaches from three academies. For the effectiveness test, a quasi-experimental design with a non-equivalent pretest-posttest control group was used, involving 38 players aged 14–17 from two football academies. Data were collected through surveys, interviews, observations, and documentation. Aiken’s V was used for content validity analysis, descriptive statistics were applied to analyze feasibility and practicality, and an independent sample t-test was conducted to assess effectiveness. The study successfully developed an integrated life skills-based football training model to foster fair play. The feasibility test yielded an average score of 4.53 in the initial trial and 4.75 in the subsequent trial. The practicality test produced an average score of 4.90. The effectiveness test resulted in a significance value (2-tailed) of 0.004 (p < 0.05), indicating a statistically significant effect of the model on improving fair play among youth football players. Beyond its statistical contribution, the model provides practical guidance for coaches in embedding life skills into training sessions, supports football academies in cultivating ethical behavior among players, and offers policymakers a framework for integrating fair play education into national youth development and coach licensing programs.
Mathematics and Statistics, 2025
This study investigates the representation theory of the multiplicative group of a finite nearfie... more This study investigates the representation theory of the multiplicative group of a finite nearfield, with a specific focus on the group G q,n , arising from Dickson nearfields. Nearfields, generalizations of fields lacking one of the two distributive laws, pose interesting challenges in algebraic structures due to their noncommutativity and asymmetry. Their multiplicative groups, particularly those derived from Dickson nearfields, have a metacyclic structure that allows for intricate analysis using representation theory. The purpose of this research is to construct and analyze the character tables of these multiplicative groups. We explore foundational concepts such as Schur's lemma, Maschke's theorem, and orthogonality relations, and apply them within the context of finite nearfields. A combination of theoretical and computational methodologies is employed. Specifically, we make use of the Magma algebra system to build and verify character tables for G q,n for small values of q and n, including detailed derivations for G 3,2 and G 4,3. The principal results include explicit character tables, classifications of conjugacy classes, degrees of irreducible representations, and a generalization framework for any pair (q, n). The research demonstrates that the multiplicative groups G q,n are not only metacyclic but also nilpotent and solvable under specific conditions. It further establishes structural conditions that determine the conjugacy class partitioning and representation degrees. Our conclusions highlight the deep connection between nearfield algebraic properties and finite group representation theory. This work contributes to the theoretical development of group representations in non-classical algebraic settings and opens doors to applications in geometry, coding theory, and cryptography. Practically, the use of Magma facilitates automated representation analysis, and socially, this research promotes a broader understanding of non-traditional algebraic systems. While the current study is computationally verified for small instances, future work will aim to optimize algorithms for handling larger G q,n structures, enhancing scalability and applicability.
Mathematics and Statistics, 2025
Identifying structural changes in time series data
is essential for accurate modeling, forecastin... more Identifying structural changes in time series data
is essential for accurate modeling, forecasting, and informed
decision-making in many fields. Classical change point detection
methods often assume specific distributional forms, such
as normality, which can limit their effectiveness when dealing
with real-world data exhibiting skewness or heavy tails.
The limitation is mitigated in this study through the introduction
of a methodological enhancement by introducing a
change point analysis (CPA) approach based on the Generalized
Lambda Distribution (GLD), which is known for its flexibility
in modeling diverse data distributions. The primary objective
is to develop and evaluate a GLD-based CPA (GLDCPA)
method and compare the performance with the widely
applied Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm. Simulation
results demonstrated that the GLD-CPA approach consistently
achieved higher accuracy in detecting all true change
points across all sample sizes, particularly outperforming the
PELT method, where PELT frequently failed to identify multiple
change points. The proposed methodology is broadly applicable
to real-world time series data, particularly those exhibiting
non-normal characteristics. To illustrate the utility and
effectiveness of the method, currency exchange rate series were
selected. The findings highlight the advantage of adopting flexible
distributional modeling in CPA, offering improved detection
capabilities in both simulated and empirical settings. The
proposed GLD-CPA method is a reliable framework for analyzing
time series data characterized by complex distributional
structures, offering practical utility for both applied and theoretical
investigations.
Mathematics and Statistics, 2025
This study presents a comparative analysis of a weighted estimator under post-stratified sampling... more This study presents a comparative analysis of a weighted estimator under post-stratified sampling and traditional estimators including ratio, product, exponential-ratio, exponential-product, and regression estimators in the presence of auxiliary attribute information. Although these estimators have been individually examined in the literature, their comparative performance under simple random sampling with poststratification remains unexplored. The study derives approximate expressions for the bias and mean square error (MSE) of all considered estimators and identifies conditions under which the weighted post-stratified estimator demonstrates superior efficiency. Theoretical results confirm that using auxiliary attributes at the estimation stage allows the weighted post-stratified estimator to attain lower MSE than traditional estimators. Furthermore, the study proposes a generalized Searls-type estimator, deriving expressions for its bias, minimum MSE, and optimality conditions. General criteria are also established to evaluate and compare various Searls-type estimators. A simulation study conducted in R for both the weighted post-stratified estimator and Searls form of post-stratified estimator supports the theoretical findings. Overall, the results advocate the use of weighted estimators when auxiliary attribute information is available, highlighting their applicability in diverse fields such as health, economics, education, and agriculture.
Mathematics and Statistics, 2025
Entropy is a useful measure in several fields; therefore, estimation of entropy has a wide range ... more Entropy is a useful measure in several fields; therefore, estimation of entropy has a wide range of applications. This research aims to estimate the entropy of the symmetric double Pareto (SDP) distribution under different sampling schemes, namely: simple random sampling, ranked set sampling, double ranked sampling, and systematic ranked set sampling. We adopt both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods. To deal with the fact that the support of the SDP distribution depends on its parameter, a highly efficient Bayesian approach is proposed and implemented through Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both point and interval estimation are studied. The proposed Bayesian method is compared with maximum likelihood and bootstrapping methods. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted and the performance of the proposed estimation methods is studied through the mean square error and coverage probability. It was observed that the proposed Bayesian method outperforms the maximum likelihood and bootstrapping methods for small and moderate sample sizes. The discussed methods have similar performance for larger sample sizes. In terms of the sampling schemes, it was observed that the DRSS is the best for small m, while SRSS has better performance as m increases. The results were confirmed by applying the proposed methods to a real data example.
Mathematics and Statistics, 2025
Selecting the right neighborhood size is crucial for nonparametric regression, especially when da... more Selecting the right neighborhood size is crucial for nonparametric regression, especially when data conditions shift. We study two automated rules for Partial-Sample Regression (PSR), which predict by averaging only the most relevant observations. The first rule, Fit-Max, minimizes training error, while the second, Risk-Min, minimizes crossvalidated error. To avoid biased estimates, both are embedded in a nested cross-validation design that separates tuning from final testing. On synthetic data with regime changes, we find a clear U-shaped error curve with an optimum when keeping only 5-7% of the data, cutting mean squared error by more than 45% compared with a fixed 50% rule. Fit-Max and Risk-Min perform almost identically out of sample, with a small bootstrap edge for Fit-Max. On benchmark datasets, adaptive PSR consistently reduced error relative to the fixed rule, with gains ranging from about 17% in moderate settings to over 80% in more complex cases. Compared with classical methods, PSR achieved accuracy competitive with k-nearest neighbors and Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression. These findings establish adaptive keep-ratio selection as a simple, reproducible, and effective strategy for relevance-based regression.
Mathematics and Statistics, 2025
Differential equation is a very important topic of interest for continuous system modelling as we... more Differential equation is a very important topic of interest for continuous system modelling as well as theoretical purposes. For real-life situation modelling, several variations are used by scientists and engineers. A fractional differential equation is one of them. Due to several reasons, such as measurement difficulty and environmental noise, the data set for real-life modelling is sometimes imprecise in nature. Fuzzy set theory is one of the suitable ideologies to deal with uncertainty. When a fuzzy set is associated with a fractional differential equation, then fuzzy fractional differential equations (FFDEs) come. Fuzzy fractional differential equations have garnered significant attention due to their ability to model processes with uncertainty and memory dependence in various scientific and theoretical contexts. Also, the concepts are applied to various engineering sciences and technical applications for modelling real-life problems. This review paper provides a comprehensive summary of FFDEs, a key concept in theoretical advancements, solution methodologies, and practical applications. The study examines previously published materials and conducts a comparative analysis of several components. The different crisp and fuzzy fractional derivatives are also compared with respect to different components. The various forms of past FFDEs are described, along with their theoretical and practical applications. Finally, tasks and probable future research directions in this emerging field are outlined.
Mathematics and Statistics, 2025
Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models have been widely used in various disciplines, including e... more Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models have been widely used in various disciplines, including epidemiological studies. The application of the CAR model in epidemiological studies is often associated with the relative risk of an infectious disease. This relative risk value can be estimated using the CAR models. Here, we evaluate four commonly used CAR models: the Intrinsic CAR, the Besag-York-Mollié CAR (BYM CAR), the BYM-modified CAR (BYM2 CAR), and the Leroux CAR (LCAR). To estimate CAR model parameters, Bayesian inference and the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) concept are used. The selected model was then used to model the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in Central Java Province in 2024. To support this analysis, we used 50 datasets simulated for each sample size (n), ranging from 10 to 100. The results of the study showed that of the four models compared, the best model was BYM2. This model was then used to model DHF cases in 2024 in Central Java Province. The research findings indicate the necessity of controlling population density, optimizing the role of medical personnel, and preparing for increased rainfall to curb the spread of dengue fever. Comprehensive detection and control measures through medical facilities are also required. Meanwhile, based on the coefficient of the altitude variable in the model, altitude has a positive influence on the number of dengue fever cases. Therefore, the conflicting conclusions between the model results and the medical perspective require data verification and further study of this variable.
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Papers by Horizon Research Publishing(HRPUB) Kevin Nelson
is essential for accurate modeling, forecasting, and informed
decision-making in many fields. Classical change point detection
methods often assume specific distributional forms, such
as normality, which can limit their effectiveness when dealing
with real-world data exhibiting skewness or heavy tails.
The limitation is mitigated in this study through the introduction
of a methodological enhancement by introducing a
change point analysis (CPA) approach based on the Generalized
Lambda Distribution (GLD), which is known for its flexibility
in modeling diverse data distributions. The primary objective
is to develop and evaluate a GLD-based CPA (GLDCPA)
method and compare the performance with the widely
applied Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm. Simulation
results demonstrated that the GLD-CPA approach consistently
achieved higher accuracy in detecting all true change
points across all sample sizes, particularly outperforming the
PELT method, where PELT frequently failed to identify multiple
change points. The proposed methodology is broadly applicable
to real-world time series data, particularly those exhibiting
non-normal characteristics. To illustrate the utility and
effectiveness of the method, currency exchange rate series were
selected. The findings highlight the advantage of adopting flexible
distributional modeling in CPA, offering improved detection
capabilities in both simulated and empirical settings. The
proposed GLD-CPA method is a reliable framework for analyzing
time series data characterized by complex distributional
structures, offering practical utility for both applied and theoretical
investigations.