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Wave Analysis

Real Knowledge Chart Patterns Why Candlestick Patterns Matter Candlestick patterns matter because they reflect real-time trader behavior: Are bulls becoming aggressive? Are bears weakening? Is a reversal coming? Is the trend gaining strength? Are institutions absorbing liquidity? In Volume Profile or Market Structure context: A candle pattern near value areas confirms reversals. A candle pattern at breakout zones confirms continuation. A candle pattern after liquidity grabs confirms orderflow shift.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by TechnicalExpress
1
Indian Derivatives on Power & Energy MarketsFocus on VPPA and OTC Structures India’s power and energy markets are undergoing a structural transformation driven by renewable energy expansion, power market reforms, decarbonization goals, and increasing participation from corporates and financial players. Alongside physical electricity trading, derivative instruments—especially Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (VPPAs) and OTC energy derivatives—are emerging as essential tools for price risk management, revenue stability, and sustainability compliance. Unlike mature power derivative markets such as Europe or the US, India’s energy derivatives ecosystem is still nascent but evolving rapidly, shaped by regulatory caution, exchange-based reforms, and corporate demand for green power. 1. Evolution of Power Markets in India Historically, India’s electricity sector operated under long-term physical PPAs between generators and state distribution companies (DISCOMs). Prices were regulated, and price risk was minimal. Key changes over the last decade: Rapid growth in renewable energy (solar, wind) Introduction of power exchanges (IEX, PXIL) Move towards market-based economic dispatch (MBED) Entry of corporates as power buyers Volatility in spot and real-time electricity prices This shift has created a strong need for hedging instruments similar to commodities, interest rates, or FX derivatives. 2. What Are Power & Energy Derivatives? Power and energy derivatives are financial contracts whose value is linked to: Electricity prices (spot, day-ahead, real-time) Renewable energy output Fuel prices (coal, gas) Emission or renewable attributes They help participants: Hedge price volatility Lock in long-term power costs Stabilize revenues for renewable generators Meet ESG and decarbonization targets In India, derivatives are primarily OTC-based, with limited exchange-traded participation. 3. Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (VPPA) What is a VPPA? A VPPA is a financial (non-physical) contract where: A corporate buyer agrees to a fixed price for renewable power The generator sells electricity into the market at floating prices The difference between the fixed VPPA price and market price is financially settled No physical delivery of electricity occurs In essence, a VPPA is a Contract for Difference (CfD) applied to power. VPPA Structure in the Indian Context Parties involved: Renewable energy generator (solar/wind) Corporate buyer (IT firms, data centers, manufacturing, MNCs) Power exchange or market price reference Settlement and billing agent Cash flow example: VPPA strike price: ₹4.00/unit Market price: ₹3.50/unit → Corporate pays generator ₹0.50/unit Market price: ₹4.50/unit → Generator pays corporate ₹0.50/unit The physical electricity continues to be sold independently in the market. Why VPPAs Matter in India Corporate Renewable Demand Large Indian and global corporates operating in India want renewable sourcing without dealing with: Open access complexity State-level cross-subsidy charges Transmission constraints Price Hedging Corporates hedge long-term power costs while generators hedge revenue volatility. ESG and RE100 Commitments VPPAs allow companies to claim renewable procurement benefits without physical delivery. Financing Renewable Projects Stable VPPA cash flows improve bankability for renewable projects. Regulatory Status of VPPAs in India VPPAs are not explicitly regulated by CERC/SEBI yet Typically structured as private OTC financial contracts Settlement references: Day-Ahead Market (DAM) Real-Time Market (RTM) Legal clarity is evolving; contracts are carefully drafted to avoid being classified as speculative derivatives India is moving cautiously compared to global markets. 4. OTC (Over-the-Counter) Energy Derivatives in India What Are OTC Energy Derivatives? OTC derivatives are bilateral contracts negotiated privately between parties, not traded on exchanges. Common OTC instruments in Indian energy markets: Fixed-for-floating power swaps Renewable generation hedges Fuel cost pass-through hedges Long-term price floors and caps Key OTC Power Derivative Structures 1. Fixed-Price Power Swap Buyer pays fixed power price Seller pays floating market price Used by DISCOMs and large consumers 2. Price Cap and Floor Contracts Protects buyers from price spikes Protects generators from price crashes 3. Load Following Contracts Settlement based on actual consumption profile Useful for data centers and industrial users 4. Renewable Output-Linked Swaps Settlement linked to actual solar/wind generation Manages intermittency risk Participants in OTC Energy Derivatives Renewable power producers Thermal power generators Large industrial consumers Corporates with ESG mandates Energy trading companies Financial intermediaries (limited) Banks currently play a minimal role due to regulatory ambiguity. 5. Exchange-Traded vs OTC Derivatives in India Aspect Exchange-Traded OTC Transparency High Low Customization Limited High Counterparty Risk Low Higher Regulation Strong Evolving Liquidity Low (India) Moderate Indian power exchanges currently focus on spot, term-ahead, and real-time markets, while derivatives remain mostly OTC. 6. Key Challenges in Indian Power Derivatives Regulatory Uncertainty Unclear demarcation between power contracts and financial derivatives. SEBI vs CERC Jurisdiction Power contracts fall under CERC, financial derivatives under SEBI—overlap creates hesitation. DISCOM Financial Stress Weak creditworthiness limits participation. Low Market Depth Limited liquidity restricts price discovery. Accounting & Tax Treatment Unclear GST and accounting classification for VPPA settlements. 7. Future Outlook of Power Derivatives in India The long-term outlook is structurally bullish: Market-Based Economic Dispatch will increase price volatility Renewable penetration >50% by 2030 increases intermittency Corporate green demand continues to rise Power futures and options are expected on exchanges Green attributes and carbon-linked derivatives may emerge India is likely to follow a hybrid model: OTC dominance initially Gradual migration to regulated exchange-based derivatives 8. Strategic Importance for Investors and Traders For traders and institutional investors: Power derivatives offer non-correlated returns Seasonal and weather-driven volatility creates opportunities Renewable intermittency increases optionality value For corporates: VPPAs act as both hedging tools and ESG instruments For generators: Stable revenues improve project valuation and refinancing ability Conclusion Indian derivatives in power and energy markets—especially VPPAs and OTC contracts—represent the next phase of financial sophistication in the country’s energy transition. While regulatory clarity is still evolving, the economic need for price risk management, renewable integration, and corporate sustainability ensures sustained growth. As India moves toward a more market-driven power system, energy derivatives will shift from optional tools to essential financial infrastructure, shaping how electricity is priced, traded, and financed in the coming decade.
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Algorithmic Strategies for Cross-Asset Futures1. Concept of Cross-Asset Futures Trading Cross-asset futures trading involves taking positions in two or more futures contracts from different asset classes based on statistical, macroeconomic, or structural relationships. Instead of predicting absolute price direction, these strategies often focus on relative value, correlation, or transmission of information across markets. For example: Bond yields rising may negatively impact equity index futures. Crude oil futures may influence inflation expectations and currency futures. Gold futures may react to movements in real yields and USD futures. Algorithms systematically quantify and trade these relationships at scale. 2. Asset Classes Commonly Used Cross-asset futures strategies typically span: Equity Index Futures (S&P 500, Nifty 50, Nasdaq, DAX) Interest Rate Futures (Treasury futures, Gilt futures) Commodity Futures (Crude oil, gold, copper, agricultural products) Currency Futures (USD, EUR, JPY, INR) Volatility Futures (VIX) The diversity of instruments improves portfolio robustness and diversification. 3. Core Types of Cross-Asset Algorithmic Strategies A. Inter-Market Spread Trading Inter-market spread strategies exploit pricing relationships between futures in different asset classes. Examples: Long equity index futures and short bond futures during reflationary phases. Long copper futures and short gold futures to express a “risk-on” view. Algorithms monitor historical spreads, z-scores, and cointegration metrics to identify deviations from equilibrium and execute trades when spreads are statistically stretched. Key tools: Cointegration analysis Z-score normalization Kalman filters for dynamic spreads B. Macro-Driven Regime Strategies These algorithms classify the macro environment into regimes such as: Growth acceleration Inflation shock Deflation risk Risk-off crisis Each regime has predefined cross-asset positioning rules. Example: Inflationary regime: Long commodities, short bonds, selective equity exposure. Risk-off regime: Long bond futures, long gold futures, short equity futures. Machine learning classifiers or rule-based macro indicators (PMI, CPI, yield curve slope) are often used for regime detection. C. Correlation and Breakdown Strategies Cross-asset correlations are not static. Algorithms monitor rolling correlations between assets and trade correlation breakdowns. Example: If equities and bonds suddenly turn positively correlated during stress, the model adjusts hedges or exploits the shift. These strategies are especially effective during crisis periods when traditional correlations fail. Common methods: Rolling correlation matrices Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC-GARCH) D. Lead-Lag Strategies Some markets react faster to new information than others. Algorithms identify leading assets and trade lagging ones. Examples: Currency futures reacting before equity futures to rate expectations. Energy futures leading inflation-sensitive bond futures. High-frequency or medium-frequency data is used to detect causality using: Granger causality tests Transfer entropy Time-shifted regressions E. Risk Parity and Volatility Targeting Cross-asset futures portfolios often use risk parity, where capital allocation is based on volatility rather than notional value. Key characteristics: Lower allocation to volatile assets like equities Higher allocation to stable assets like bonds Continuous rebalancing based on realized volatility Algorithms dynamically adjust exposure so that each asset class contributes equally to portfolio risk. F. Statistical Arbitrage Across Asset Classes These strategies treat futures contracts as components of a statistical system rather than economic instruments. Examples: Mean-reversion between commodity indices and equity indices Cross-sectional ranking of futures returns across asset classes Models may include: Multivariate regression Factor models Machine learning clustering techniques 4. Data and Infrastructure Requirements Cross-asset futures strategies are data-intensive. Required data: Futures price data (continuous contracts) Macro data (rates, inflation, growth indicators) Volatility indices Correlation and covariance matrices Infrastructure: Low-latency execution for intraday strategies Robust backtesting engines Risk management and margin optimization systems Institutional-grade systems are preferred due to the complexity of managing multiple asset classes. 5. Risk Management in Cross-Asset Algorithms Risk management is central to cross-asset futures trading. Key risks: Correlation breakdown risk Leverage and margin risk Liquidity risk during stress events Model overfitting Risk controls: Portfolio-level drawdown limits Volatility scaling Stop-loss at spread and portfolio level Stress testing across historical crises Many strategies cap risk at the portfolio level rather than individual trades, reflecting the interconnected nature of assets. 6. Advantages of Cross-Asset Futures Strategies Diversification across asset classes Ability to profit in both trending and sideways markets Reduced reliance on single-market direction Strong performance during macro regime shifts Capital efficiency due to futures leverage These advantages make cross-asset strategies attractive for institutional portfolios. 7. Limitations and Challenges Despite their strengths, these strategies face challenges: Changing macro relationships Data quality issues across asset classes High complexity and maintenance cost Regulatory and margin changes affecting futures trading Models must be continuously monitored and adapted. 8. Future Trends The future of cross-asset futures algorithms includes: AI-driven regime detection Alternative data integration (shipping, satellite, flows) Real-time macro nowcasting Improved tail-risk hedging models As global markets become more interconnected, cross-asset algorithms will become even more relevant. Conclusion Algorithmic strategies for cross-asset futures represent one of the most sophisticated forms of systematic trading. By exploiting relationships across equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and volatility, these strategies move beyond single-market forecasting toward a holistic view of global financial systems. When combined with robust risk management, disciplined execution, and adaptive models, cross-asset futures algorithms can deliver consistent, diversified performance across market cycles.
BSE:SENSEXEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Renewable Energy Certificates & Carbon Credits1. What Are Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs)? Definition A Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) represents the environmental attributes of electricity generated from renewable sources such as solar, wind, hydro, biomass, or geothermal. One REC is issued for every 1 megawatt-hour (MWh) of renewable electricity generated and supplied to the grid. When renewable power is produced, two components are created: Physical electricity (indistinguishable once on the grid) Environmental benefit (tracked separately through RECs) The REC allows the renewable benefit to be claimed, traded, or retired, even if the actual electricity is consumed elsewhere. 2. Purpose of RECs RECs exist primarily to: Promote renewable energy adoption Enable compliance with renewable energy mandates Allow organizations to claim renewable energy usage Support corporate sustainability and ESG goals Because electricity on the grid is a mix of sources, RECs solve the attribution problem—allowing buyers to say, “We used renewable electricity,” even if electrons came from mixed sources. 3. Types of REC Markets a) Compliance RECs These are used to meet government-mandated renewable obligations, such as: Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs) in India Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) in the US Utilities and obligated entities must procure a certain percentage of power from renewable sources or purchase RECs to comply. b) Voluntary RECs Corporates, institutions, and individuals purchase these to: Reduce their carbon footprint Meet net-zero or carbon neutrality commitments Enhance brand sustainability credentials 4. How REC Markets Work Renewable generator produces electricity REC is issued by a registry REC is sold to buyers Buyer retires the REC to claim renewable usage Once retired, a REC cannot be resold, ensuring no double counting. 5. Benefits and Limitations of RECs Benefits Encourages renewable project viability Provides additional revenue to clean energy producers Enables corporate climate action Transparent and standardized tracking Limitations RECs do not directly reduce emissions; they support cleaner generation Risk of greenwashing if used without broader decarbonization Impact depends on market integrity and additionality 6. What Are Carbon Credits? Definition A carbon credit represents the reduction, removal, or avoidance of 1 metric tonne of carbon dioxide (CO₂) or equivalent greenhouse gases (CO₂e). Carbon credits are generated by projects that: Reduce emissions (e.g., energy efficiency) Avoid emissions (e.g., clean cooking stoves) Remove carbon (e.g., afforestation, carbon capture) 7. Purpose of Carbon Credits Carbon credits exist to: Put a price on carbon emissions Encourage emission reductions where they are cheapest Help entities offset unavoidable emissions Support climate finance in developing regions They are especially useful for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation, cement, steel, and shipping. 8. Types of Carbon Markets a) Compliance Carbon Markets Governed by regulations such as: Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) Cap-and-Trade programs Governments cap total emissions and allocate or auction allowances. Companies exceeding limits must buy credits. b) Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCM) Corporations and individuals voluntarily purchase credits to: Offset emissions Achieve carbon neutrality Support sustainability initiatives Credits are certified by standards like Verra, Gold Standard, or national registries. 9. How Carbon Credits Are Created Project is designed (e.g., wind farm, forest conservation) Emission reductions are calculated using approved methodologies Independent verification is conducted Credits are issued Credits are sold and eventually retired Key principles include additionality, permanence, measurability, and no double counting. 10. Benefits and Challenges of Carbon Credits Benefits Cost-effective emission reductions Mobilizes private climate finance Encourages innovation and clean technologies Supports sustainable development goals (SDGs) Challenges Concerns about quality and credibility Risk of overstated reductions Permanence risks (e.g., forest fires) Complexity in measurement and verification 11. Key Differences Between RECs and Carbon Credits Aspect RECs Carbon Credits Unit 1 MWh renewable electricity 1 tonne CO₂e Purpose Promote renewable energy Offset or reduce emissions Market Electricity & sustainability Climate & emissions Emission Impact Indirect Direct Usage Claim “We used renewable energy” “We offset emissions” 12. Role in Corporate ESG and Net-Zero Strategies Modern climate strategies typically follow a hierarchy: Avoid emissions Reduce emissions Replace fossil energy with renewables (RECs) Offset residual emissions (Carbon Credits) RECs help decarbonize Scope 2 emissions (electricity), while carbon credits often address Scope 1 and Scope 3 residuals. 13. Future Outlook The role of RECs and carbon credits is expanding due to: Global net-zero commitments Increasing carbon disclosure regulations Growth in ESG investing Rising corporate accountability However, future markets will demand: Higher transparency Stronger standards Better alignment with real-world emission reductions Governments are also exploring Article 6 mechanisms under the Paris Agreement, which could reshape international carbon trading. 14. Conclusion Renewable Energy Certificates and Carbon Credits are powerful yet distinct climate instruments. RECs accelerate the transition to clean electricity by monetizing renewable attributes, while carbon credits enable emissions reductions beyond organizational boundaries. When used responsibly—not as substitutes for direct decarbonization but as complementary tools—they play a crucial role in achieving global climate goals.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!Education
by TechnicalExpress
NIFTY 5M – Fresh Long Entry After Retracement | Fibonacci-Based NIFTY has respected the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone and is showing a clean bullish response on the 5-minute timeframe. 🔹 Fresh Long Entry: 25250 🔹 Invalidation / SL: Below 25100 🔹 Upside Target: 25555 🔹 Structure: Higher Low + Strong Impulse 🔹 Context: Trend continuation after healthy pullback This setup aligns with price structure + Fibonacci confluence, suitable for intraday momentum traders. ⚠️ Trade with proper risk management. 📊 Not financial advice.
NSE:NIFTY
by toolsoftomorrow
A Completed Impulse Now Gives Way to Correction in VoltasFrom its inception low near ₹2.60 , Voltas has unfolded a clear long-term 5-wave impulsive advance on the monthly timeframe , culminating near ₹1,994.90 . The structure of this move aligns well with classical Elliott Wave principles, suggesting that a larger-degree impulse cycle has likely concluded . Following this structural completion, price action has transitioned into a corrective phase . The initial decline fits well as Wave W , unfolding in a zigzag structure . This has been followed by a rebound that appears corrective in nature and can be interpreted as the connector Wave X . If this interpretation holds, the broader correction may continue with one more leg lower in Wave Y , potentially drawing price toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone of the entire impulse. Such behavior would be consistent with a higher-degree corrective process , rather than a trend reversal. Until the corrective structure is fully resolved, any interim rallies are more likely to be corrective in nature and may be viewed as potential selling opportunities , rather than the start of a new impulsive advance. At this stage, the focus remains on structure and price behavior , as corrective phases tend to be overlapping and time-consuming . The larger trend remains intact, but patience is required before expecting trend resumption. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:VOLTASShort
by WaveXplorer
Bajaj Finance: Impulse Complete, Correction in ControlBajaj Finance completed a clean five-wave impulsive advance , topping out near ₹1,102.5 , followed by a clear loss of momentum. Since that peak, price action has shifted from trend to overlap , signaling a corrective phase rather than continuation. Structurally, the decline is unfolding within a descending channel , fitting well with a W–X–Y corrective structure . The internal swings remain choppy and overlapping — classic correction behavior — with price respecting the channel boundaries so far. During the impulsive rally ( Waves 1–5 ), the 50 DMA acted as dynamic support , confirming strong upside momentum. Post the top, price has slipped below the 50 DMA and is now oscillating around it, indicating momentum fatigue . A sustained hold below the 50 DMA, combined with a rollover in the average , would reinforce the short-term bearish / corrective bias , with the average potentially flipping into dynamic resistance . From a price projection perspective, the ongoing Wave Y is favoring a move toward key Fibonacci retracement levels . The 0.618 retracement near ₹945 stands out as a high-probability reaction zone , while a deeper flush could extend toward the 0.786 retracement near ₹903 if downside pressure accelerates. Risk is clearly defined. A sustained break above the upper boundary of the corrective channel would invalidate the W–X–Y interpretation and signal a structural shift back toward strength . Until then, the path of least resistance remains corrective . Bottom line: The impulsive phase is done. The market is digesting gains. Structure — not emotion — favors patience and respect for the corrective channel. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BAJFINANCEShort
by WaveXplorer
2
[SeoVereign] BITCOIN BULLISH Outlook – January 21, 2025The market’s direction is becoming increasingly ambiguous. As the market fails to present a clear directional bias, I am likewise experiencing considerable difficulty in reading its flow. The current market environment is characterized by a significant expansion in volatility, where movements suggesting the completion of a downtrend and a transition to an upward phase are repeatedly followed by sharp retracements that erase the entirety of the advance. From a short-term perspective, this represents an extremely fatiguing phase; however, from a macro perspective, it corresponds to a textbook consolidation range. Consolidation is generally perceived as a tedious and painful phase, yet it is crucial to recognize that the longer a consolidation persists, the more powerful the volatility that tends to follow thereafter. Many market participants become fixated on the minor fluctuations that occur within consolidation ranges, repeatedly engaging in forced and excessive trades, thereby eroding their capital. As a result, when a decisive trend finally emerges, they are placed in the critical situation of being unable to participate in that move. Accordingly, the most important priority at this stage is not to hastily predict the next move, but to preserve capital through rigorous risk management. From the perspective of directional analysis, time itself represents the accumulation of evidence. By way of analogy, when eating with one’s eyes covered, it is difficult to identify the food immediately after placing it in one’s mouth; only through repeated chewing and swallowing does the taste and composition become clear. The current market is likewise passing through a very prolonged consolidation phase, and the evidence accumulated during this process will ultimately indicate the future direction and magnitude with greater clarity. In general, when consolidation persists to this extent, the subsequent move tends to be relatively clear. That said, at the present moment, I am assigning equal probability to both upside and downside scenarios. While it is unusual for directionality to remain unclear after such an extended consolidation, experience suggests that in these conditions, there is often a marginally higher probability of an additional downward extension of the existing trend. However, within my analytical framework, signals have also been detected that provide sufficient grounds to assert the possibility of an immediate upward move. In circumstances where indicators conflict in this manner, the optimal approach is to exercise patience and wait for a point at which directionality becomes clearly defined. Accordingly, I am currently maintaining a strategy centered on short-term trading within the 15-minute timeframe, and I would like to share a newly identified bullish perspective observed within the same timeframe. At present, the price structure is approaching the completion zone of a 1.902 Deep Crab pattern formed following a downtrend. While completion of such a pattern does not allow one to definitively conclude a trend reversal, it is nonetheless classified as a region where technical reactions and attempts at short-term structural shifts are highly likely to occur within a broader downtrend. In other words, it represents an area where selling pressure tends to weaken near the tail end of a decline and where short-term buying responses may emerge. Such structures typically form in zones where fear among market participants reaches its peak. Additionally, the Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.5 to 0.618, measured from the recent high-to-low downward impulse, precisely overlaps with the pattern completion area. Based on these technical factors, the average target zone has been set at 92,500 USDT, and I plan to respond flexibly through the expansion and reduction of long positions. I will continue to closely monitor market reactions and provide ongoing updates should there be any changes in perspective or additional analytical developments. This concludes the current idea.
Long
by SeoVereign
VEDL 1 Week Time Frame 📊 Current Price Context (approximate latest) • Vedanta is trading around ₹660‑₹675 range on NSE as of the latest session. 📈 Weekly Resistance Levels These are levels where the stock might face selling pressure on an upward move: Resistance Zones 1. ₹682–₹688 area – near recent intraday highs and 52‑week high cluster. 2. ~₹693–₹700 – broader higher resistance in week ahead. 3. Above ₹700 – extended breakout zone if bullish momentum accelerates. 👉 Bullish breakout triggers shorter‑term targets toward these zones, especially if sustained above daily pivots/resistance. 📉 Weekly Support Levels These are areas where price might find buyers or pullback cushions: Support Zones 1. ~₹665–₹658 – immediate weekly support cluster. 2. ~₹647–₹648 – next meaningful support if the price weakens. 3. ~₹620–₹630 – deeper pivot/demand zone from recent action (from broader short‑term analysis). 4. ~₹560–₹570 – more distant support if the stock corrects further from current levels. 👉 A break below ₹658–665 on weekly closes could shift bias toward deeper support ranges. 🔁 1‑Week Bias Summary Scenario Level to Watch What It Implies Bullish continuation Above ₹682–₹688 Can target ₹693–₹700+ Neutral / congestion ₹665–₹658 Choppy range, sideways trades Bearish correction Below ₹658 Deeper support at ₹620–₹570+
NSE:VEDLLong
by Knowledgehub
Part 1 Ride The Big Moves What Are Options? Options are financial derivatives—meaning their value is derived from an underlying asset such as stock, index, commodity, etc. They are contracts between two parties: the option buyer and the option seller (writer). There are two types of options: Call Option (CE) – Right to buy the asset at a fixed price. Put Option (PE) – Right to sell the asset at a fixed price. The key point: The buyer has a right but no obligation. The seller has an obligation but no rights.
MCX:GOLD1!Education
by SkyTradingZone
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – January 21, 2026 Momentum – Daily (D1) momentum is currently increasing, indicating that the bullish trend is still intact and the upward move has not yet finished. – H4 momentum is compressing in the overbought zone. This shows that the uptrend is still being maintained; however, momentum has weakened and a potential reversal may occur at any time. – H1 momentum has started to reverse, suggesting that a short-term corrective pullback on the H1 timeframe is likely. Wave Structure Daily (D1) Timeframe – On the daily chart, price remains within the blue Wave 5 structure, with Wave 5 continuing to extend. – The next key level to monitor is 4957, which corresponds to the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of the Wave 1–3 range. H4 Timeframe – The current rally is steep and impulsive, suggesting that price is likely moving within orange Wave 3. – Inside orange Wave 3, we can clearly observe a five-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5) marked in green, as shown on the chart. – According to Elliott Wave principles, once Wave 3 is completed, the market should enter a corrective phase forming orange Wave 4. – It is important to note that H4 momentum is compressed in the overbought zone, signaling that while the bullish move may continue, momentum is weakening and reversal risk is increasing. – However, since the blue Wave 5 is still extending, by principle we should not attempt to fade or counter-trade an extending wave. H1 Timeframe – Within the green five-wave structure, we can also identify a purple 1–2–3–4–5 structure, with purple Wave 3 currently extending. – By principle, it is not advisable to project precise targets for an extending wave, as accuracy is typically very low. – At this stage, the best approach is to remain patient and continue observing for additional confirmation, rather than taking aggressive sell positions while the bullish structure remains dominant.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
LTIM — Corrective Rally Exhaustion, 3-Wave Decline in FocusThe advance in LTI Mindtree Ltd (LTIM) from 3,802 is interpreted as a corrective ABC structure , rather than the start of a fresh impulsive trend. Wave A advanced to 5,554.50 Wave B corrected lower within a falling channel , ending near 4,939.50 Wave C unfolded in five waves and terminated at 6,429.50, accompanied by bearish RSI divergence , signaling momentum exhaustion Price has now closed below the 50-DMA , indicating weakening bullish momentum. However, Wave (a) is still evolving , and its completion needs to be confirmed through price action. A probable corrective path ahead: Completion of Wave (a) on the downside A Wave (b) bounce potentially initiating from the 100-DMA , if price stabilizes near that zone Followed by a Wave (c) continuation lower , with downside risk toward the 5,555 zone As always, price action will dictate the structure , and the wave count will be updated as the move evolves . Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:LTIMShort
by WaveXplorer
US100 (Nasdaq) – Structure & BiasPrice is currently trading inside a well-defined consolidation range, capped by a major resistance zone near 25,850–25,900 and supported around 25,230–25,250, which has acted as a strong demand flip multiple times. The recent price action shows: A liquidity sweep to the downside, followed by a sharp bullish reaction, indicating smart money absorption. Price reclaiming the mid-range level, suggesting buyers are regaining short-term control. Compression near support, often a precursor to expansion. The projected path indicates a minor pullback or sideways consolidation, followed by a bullish continuation toward the upper resistance band. Structure favors upside as long as price holds above the marked support zone. Key Levels Support: 25,230 – 25,250 Mid-range equilibrium: ~25,300 Target / Resistance: 25,850 – 25,900 Bias 🟢 Bullish continuation, provided price maintains above the demand zone. A clean breakout above consolidation could trigger momentum-driven expansion toward the highs.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by YCGH_Capital
Tata Consumer Products Ltd – Rising Wedge: Trap or Topping?Price is grinding higher inside a rising wedge , marked by converging trendlines and overlapping structure. This is not impulsive behavior — it fits better as a corrective Wave X , typically seen before the next leg of decline. Rising wedges often signal distribution, not accumulation. As long as price stays inside the wedge, upside is suspect and slow, not a trend resumption. The only actionable trigger here is a decisive break below the lower trendline . Until that happens, this remains a waiting game — no hero trades, no early shorts. If the wedge fails, odds favor a Wave Y decline unfolding next. If price reclaims strength and invalidates the wedge, step aside and reassess. Patience > prediction. Structure decides. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:TATACONSUMShort
by WaveXplorer
S&P 500: Late-Stage Structure Worth WatchingThe S&P 500’s recent advance is showing overlapping price action and narrowing ranges , raising the possibility of a developing Ending Diagonal near the highs. Internally, the move lacks impulsive strength , with Wave (v) struggling for follow-through and RSI hovering around the mid-50s, suggesting momentum is not confirming price . This behavior is more typical of a terminal phase than a trend expansion. That said, this is not a confirmed top . A break below the lower diagonal would support the bearish case, while strong acceptance above recent highs would invalidate the diagonal view. For now, this remains a caution zone , not a conviction call. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
SP:SPX
by WaveXplorer
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – January 20, 2026 1. Momentum D1 Timeframe – The D1 momentum has started to show signs of a bullish reversal. However, we still need to wait for today’s D1 candle close to fully confirm this reversal signal. – If confirmed, the bullish trend is likely to continue. – That said, since the reversal point is forming relatively close to the oversold zone, the upside potential of this move may be limited and expectations should be managed carefully. H4 Timeframe – H4 momentum is approaching the oversold area. – If the current price action holds and we get a bullish H4 candle close, momentum will officially enter the oversold zone and may reverse upward. – In that case, the bullish trend on the H4 timeframe will be reinforced. H1 Timeframe – H1 momentum is currently rising, indicating that the short-term bullish bias remains intact. – Alternatively, price may continue to move sideways before a clearer direction emerges. 2. Elliott Wave Structure D1 Wave Structure – There is no major change in the D1 wave count. – Price remains within the blue Wave 5. – Combined with the emerging bullish reversal signal on D1 momentum, this suggests that Wave 5 may continue to extend higher. H4 Wave Structure – Within the blue Wave 5, the H4 structure consists of five yellow sub-waves. – Price is currently moving inside yellow Wave 5. – With H4 momentum preparing to reverse upward, yellow Wave 5 may continue its advance. – However, special attention should be paid to the price channel: if price rises and then returns back inside the channel, it may signal that yellow Wave 5 has already completed. H1 Wave Structure – Inside yellow Wave 5, we can identify five purple sub-waves. – At the moment, price is in the final stage of purple Wave 4 and preparing to enter purple Wave 5. 3. Targets & Key Price Zones – Purple Wave 5 target: 4737 – From the Volume Profile, the 4641 – 4661 zone is a liquidity void (FVG). – Price is currently being rejected from this area, indicating that 4661 is acting as a strong support level. – By combining strong support from the FVG zone with H4 momentum approaching oversold and preparing for a bullish reversal, this area becomes a high-quality zone to look for Buy opportunities targeting the completion of Wave 5. 4. Trading Plan – Buy Setup: 4667 – 4665 – Stop Loss: 4647 – Take Profit 1: 4687 – Take Profit 2: 4737
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
Avenue Supermarts(1-H): Structure Over NoiseToday’s price action was rough across Nifty and the broader market. But beneath the volatility, some charts are quietly holding their structure — and that’s worth paying attention to. In Avenue Supermarts Ltd , price has unfolded a clean 5-wave advance on the 1-hour timeframe from the 3605.10 low to 3918.60 , allowing the move to be labeled as Wave 1 / A . The subsequent decline shows a corrective ABC structure , with overlapping price action and weakening momentum — characteristics typical of a correction. The drop into 3645.50 fits well as wave b , potentially completing Wave 2 / B . At this point, confirmation of Wave 2 / B completion is still awaited . The bullish structure remains valid only if price continues to hold above 3605.10 on a closing basis . As long as this level is respected, the setup keeps the door open for a potential Wave 3 / C advance , with scope for a retest and possible extension beyond 3918 , offering a favorable reward-to-risk profile . A decisive close below 3605.10 would invalidate this count and warrant a reassessment. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:DMARTLong
by WaveXplorer
Very Short Term View for NiftyWrap up:- Currently, Nifty is in final wave 5 which was started from 24337 on 08.08.2025. In the pattern of wave 5, Nifty is forming a wxy pattern. After break of 25318 cordinates of wxy has been changed. Now, Wave w has been completed at 26104 and wave x is expected to be completed at 25171 once nifty breaks and sustains above 25630. Thereafter, wave y is expected to be completed in the range of 26938-27355. What I’m Watching for 🔍 Buy Nifty when it breaks and sustains above 25630 sl 25171 for a target of 26938-27355. Disclaimer: Sharing my personal market view — only for educational purpose not financial advice. "Don't predict the market. Decode them."
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ChartMasteryHQ
2
Very Short Term View for NiftyWrap up:- Currently, Nifty is in final wave 5 which was started from 24337 on 08.08.2025. In the pattern of wave 5, Nifty is forming a wxy pattern. Wave w has been completed at 25448 and wave x at 25318 and wave y is expected to be completed in the range of 26630-26868. In wave y, wave a is completed at 26325 and b is expected to be completed in the range of 25740- 25591; once Nifty breaks and sustains above 25909. Thereafter, Nifty will head towards wave c. What I’m Watching for 🔍 Buy Nifty in the range of 25740-25591 or on safer side Buy Nifty when it breaks and sustains above 25909 sl 25508 (daily closing basis) for a target of 26630-26868. Disclaimer: Sharing my personal market view — only for educational purpose not financial advice. "Don't predict the market. Decode them."
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ChartMasteryHQ