Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 00Z Fri Jan 23 2026

...Lake effect snow expected downwind of the Great Lakes...

...Frigid Arctic airmass returns over Northeastern and Central U.S
Thursday into Friday...

...Freeze warnings in effect from southern Georgia down into Florida...


Multiple clipper systems from the Canadian Rockies will move through the
Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes carrying sporadic snow showers
and cold temperatures through the period. Behind the cold fronts, a
northwesterly flow will enhance the lake-effect, which will bring snow
downwind of the Great Lakes, with localized heavier snow near the eastern
and southern side of the lakes, especially near Lake Ontario.

An arctic air mass continues to dominate much of the eastern half of
CONUS, especially across Northeast and Midwest, bringing bitterly cold
temperatures persisting through much of the period. Freeze warning are in
effect for parts of Georgia into Northern Florida, as sub-freezing
temperatures will return overnight. As the Arctic cold air mass continues
to spread southeastward, expect significantly below normal cold conditions
to prevail for much of the central and eastern U.S. Thursday into Friday,
expect temperatures between 15-25 degrees below normal with parts of the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest dropping below 0 degrees. Otherwise,
expect near normal to slightly above normal temperatures over Western U.S.
through Friday.

A low pressure system will bring a southern stream across northern Baja
California towards the end of the period. With the cyclonic flow, moist
gulf air will pool and collide with the arctic air bringing widespread
wintry precipitation across Texas to the Southeast. As the system
continues to track further north, snow chances will increase across the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Although confidence continues to
trend higher for an impactful system developing, the timing, track and
strength of this winter storm continues to remain uncertain. Therefore,
remain up to date with the latest forecast information at weather.gov.

A surface trough will bring chances for heavy rainfall over the South
Florida coast that will serve to be primarily beneficial, as conditions
over this area trends drier for this time of year. There is a slight
chance for some isolated flash flooding but probability is too low to
issue a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) at this moment.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026

...Significant winter storm expected from the Southern Plains to
the Mid-Atlantic bringing widespread heavy snow and ice impacts...

...Dangerous cold expected for the north-central U.S. while much
below average temperatures spread to the South and East...


...Overview...

Broad upper troughing associated with a major arctic outbreak is
forecast to persist across the eastern half of the country through
early next week. At the surface, an arctic high pressure system
will bring dangerously cold temperatures to much of the central
and eastern U.S, especially the upper Midwest where wind chills
could be near 50 degrees below zero. Meanwhile, an upper low moving
onshore into the Southwest is forecast to interact and clash with
the arctic air while ingesting Gulf moisture to produce widespread
snow and ice across the southern Plains beginning on Friday,
followed by lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Southeast, and the
Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the
aforementioned large scale pattern evolution. Model guidance
continues to trend toward a faster southward plunge of the arctic
air and the associated high pressure system into the southern U.S.
Friday into Saturday, resulting in colder temperatures than
previously predicted. It remains the case that the clash of the
arctic plunge with southern stream energy ejecting out of the
Southwest will result in a high impact winter storm across the
southern tier beginning on Friday. However, there remains quite a
bit of uncertainty mainly on the along-track timing of the southern
stream energy and the degree of interaction with the northern
stream troughing. The uncertainty will impact the timing and
placement of the snow/ice line as well as the northern gradient of
the snowfall. While these details will need to be worked out over
the coming days, a significant winter storm will likely impact a
wide swath of the south-central U.S. through the Mid-Atlantic.

The WPC medium-range forecast package was based on a consensus
blend of 40% from the 00Z EC/EC mean, 40% from the 06Z GFS/GEFS,
and 20% from the CMC/CMC mean with much of the blend coming from
the ensemble means by Day 7. This blend smooths over the model
extremes and provides a middle ground solution between the fast
GFS solution and the slow EC solution.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The two main highlights this week into the weekend will be the
significant winter storm that will impact the Southern Plains into
the Mid-Atlantic, and the dangerously cold temperatures across the
north-central portion of the country. The winter storm should
start impacting portions of the Southern Plains on Friday,
expanding eastward into the TN valley and Southeast on Saturday,
and into the Mid-Atllantic over the weekend. This is likely to be a
widespread event, with a large swath of hazardous winter
conditions.

On the southern side of this system significant freezing rain is
expected, likely resulting in dangerous travel conditions and power
outages. Given the arctic airmass in place, temperatures will
likely only be in the teens and 20s where freezing rain is
occurring, which will only act to increase travel impacts. The
exact swath of ice will a bit uncertain until we get closer to the
event...but currently the highest probabilities stretch from
portions of central TX into the lower MS Valley and into portions
of SC/NC.

To the north of this icing threat will be a swath of significant
snowfall stretching from OK into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Again, we will need to fine tune the northern and southern
gradients of this snow, and also the exact magnitudes...but a
rather wide swath of significant snowfall is likely. Temperatures
in the teens and 20s will increase travel impacts from this snow
and also result in snow ratios likely higher than climatology. This
should result in higher snowfall totals than applying a simple
10-1 ratio to QPF would give you...especially on the northern half
of the snowfall axis.

Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast to impact the north-
central U.S. starting Thursday under an arctic surface high, which
will push much colder than average temperatures farther south and
east for Friday into the weekend. The Northern Plains to Upper
Midwest can expect extreme cold, with temperatures likely reaching
20 to 30 degrees below zero by Friday and Saturday morning, and
even colder wind chills potentially reaching negative 50 degrees in
some locations. Even highs are forecast to stay below zero degrees
through Saturday in the Upper Midwest. Much colder than average
temperatures will expand into the Central Plains Friday and
towards the Gulf and East Coasts this weekend. Highs are forecast
to be in the teens as far south as Oklahoma/Missouri and across the
Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and southern New England. These
temperatures will be as much as 20-30+ degrees below average.
Temperatures may start to moderate by Monday into Tuesday as the
high weakens, though remain below normal across the Gulf Coast to
Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile the Rockies should block the cold air
from moving into the West where temperatures should generally
remain near to above average.

Kong/Chenard/Dolan


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 00Z Wed 21 Jan 2026 - 00Z Wed 28 Jan 2026

An upper trough axis is forecast to be atop Hawaii through late
week. After some light scattered showers on Tuesday, a more
organized moisture plume is forecast to move into Kauai Tuesday
night just ahead of a cold front, bringing a line of showers
including possibly locally heavy rainfall. The front is forecast
to move south toward Oahu Wednesday with winds turning to show a
northerly component, but with temporarily weakening moisture. But
by Thursday and especially Friday a secondary front pushed along
by the upper trough is forecast to reinforce the boundary and pool
higher moisture levels across the state, especially as a surge of
moisture comes in from the west. Instability is forecast to
increase broadly Friday into Saturday as well. Thus in general the
pattern becomes more favorable for widespread rain, which could
be locally heavy, across much of the state late week into Saturday
and perhaps Sunday.

Into early next week, the upper trough should be moving east,
with possible ridging building in from the west. This leads to
drying conditions in general. That said, there is ample model
spread with the details of the pattern, including another possible
front moving through the state around Monday per the ECMWF and
AIFS, so continue to monitor for forecast updates.

Tate

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026

South Florida...
The best signal for heavy rainfall this period focuses near an
inverted trough sharpening along the South Florida coast,
as precipitable water values rise to 1.5" and instability tries to
move ashore from the Gulf Stream. The 12z HREF/06z REFS advertise
0.5"+ an hour amounts right at the end of the period Thursday
morning, with a 40%+ chance of 2"+ somewhere between coastal
Broward and Martin Counties. At the moment, the threat of flash
flooding here appears too isolated and too marginal for a Marginal
Risk to be depicted.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026

South Florida...
The best signal remains near South Florida Thursday morning where
enough moisture and instability appear to exist for locally heavy
rain. The guidance appears to drift this activity northward as the
low- level flow veers; convection is not expected to sit in any
particular location for too long. At the moment, the threat of
flash flooding here appears too isolated/marginal for a Marginal
Risk to be depicted.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026


The two main highlights this week into the weekend will be the
significant winter storm that will impact the Southern Plains into
the Mid-Atlantic, and the dangerously cold temperatures across the
north-central portion of the country. The winter storm should
start impacting portions of the Southern Plains on Friday,
expanding eastward into the TN valley and Southeast on Saturday,
and into the Mid-Atllantic over the weekend. This is likely to be a
widespread event, with a large swath of hazardous winter
conditions.

On the southern side of this system significant freezing rain is
expected, likely resulting in dangerous travel conditions and power
outages. Given the arctic airmass in place, temperatures will
likely only be in the teens and 20s where freezing rain is
occurring, which will only act to increase travel impacts. The
exact swath of ice will a bit uncertain until we get closer to the
event...but currently the highest probabilities stretch from
portions of central TX into the lower MS Valley and into portions
of SC/NC.

To the north of this icing threat will be a swath of significant
snowfall stretching from OK into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Again, we will need to fine tune the northern and southern
gradients of this snow, and also the exact magnitudes...but a
rather wide swath of significant snowfall is likely. Temperatures
in the teens and 20s will increase travel impacts from this snow
and also result in snow ratios likely higher than climatology. This
should result in higher snowfall totals than applying a simple
10-1 ratio to QPF would give you...especially on the northern half
of the snowfall axis.

Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast to impact the north-
central U.S. starting Thursday under an arctic surface high, which
will push much colder than average temperatures farther south and
east for Friday into the weekend. The Northern Plains to Upper
Midwest can expect extreme cold, with temperatures likely reaching
20 to 30 degrees below zero by Friday and Saturday morning, and
even colder wind chills potentially reaching negative 50 degrees in
some locations. Even highs are forecast to stay below zero degrees
through Saturday in the Upper Midwest. Much colder than average
temperatures will expand into the Central Plains Friday and
towards the Gulf and East Coasts this weekend. Highs are forecast
to be in the teens as far south as Oklahoma/Missouri and across the
Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and southern New England. These
temperatures will be as much as 20-30+ degrees below average.
Temperatures may start to moderate by Monday into Tuesday as the
high weakens, though remain below normal across the Gulf Coast to
Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile the Rockies should block the cold air
from moving into the West where temperatures should generally
remain near to above average.

Kong/Chenard/Dolan

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026


The two main highlights this week into the weekend will be the
significant winter storm that will impact the Southern Plains into
the Mid-Atlantic, and the dangerously cold temperatures across the
north-central portion of the country. The winter storm should
start impacting portions of the Southern Plains on Friday,
expanding eastward into the TN valley and Southeast on Saturday,
and into the Mid-Atllantic over the weekend. This is likely to be a
widespread event, with a large swath of hazardous winter
conditions.

On the southern side of this system significant freezing rain is
expected, likely resulting in dangerous travel conditions and power
outages. Given the arctic airmass in place, temperatures will
likely only be in the teens and 20s where freezing rain is
occurring, which will only act to increase travel impacts. The
exact swath of ice will a bit uncertain until we get closer to the
event...but currently the highest probabilities stretch from
portions of central TX into the lower MS Valley and into portions
of SC/NC.

To the north of this icing threat will be a swath of significant
snowfall stretching from OK into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Again, we will need to fine tune the northern and southern
gradients of this snow, and also the exact magnitudes...but a
rather wide swath of significant snowfall is likely. Temperatures
in the teens and 20s will increase travel impacts from this snow
and also result in snow ratios likely higher than climatology. This
should result in higher snowfall totals than applying a simple
10-1 ratio to QPF would give you...especially on the northern half
of the snowfall axis.

Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast to impact the north-
central U.S. starting Thursday under an arctic surface high, which
will push much colder than average temperatures farther south and
east for Friday into the weekend. The Northern Plains to Upper
Midwest can expect extreme cold, with temperatures likely reaching
20 to 30 degrees below zero by Friday and Saturday morning, and
even colder wind chills potentially reaching negative 50 degrees in
some locations. Even highs are forecast to stay below zero degrees
through Saturday in the Upper Midwest. Much colder than average
temperatures will expand into the Central Plains Friday and
towards the Gulf and East Coasts this weekend. Highs are forecast
to be in the teens as far south as Oklahoma/Missouri and across the
Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and southern New England. These
temperatures will be as much as 20-30+ degrees below average.
Temperatures may start to moderate by Monday into Tuesday as the
high weakens, though remain below normal across the Gulf Coast to
Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile the Rockies should block the cold air
from moving into the West where temperatures should generally
remain near to above average.

Kong/Chenard/Dolan

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 00Z Sat Jan 24 2026


...Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Sprawling Hudson Bay vortex dominates the continental pattern
through this week. Within the broad cyclonic pattern, a shortwave
and developing surface wave is forecast to traverse the Upper
Midwest tonight. Tonight, a corridor of warm advection and
associated 850-700 mb frontogenesis on the northeast flank of the
low center will drive an east-west oriented snow band spreading
from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. The latest PWPF
for >4" is 20-30% over northwest IA and southern WI, which
increases to 50-75% over southwestern MI. By tomorrow, a modest
clipper system following behind the lead wave will drive additional
snowfall, although the QPF footprint with this system is markedly
lower. Meanwhile, strong single-banding will gradually come to an
end tonight downwind of Lake Ontario. Even so, the Day 1 PWPF for
>6" is around 50% in the Tug Hill Plateau, which ramps up to above
90% by Day 3 with the approach of a strong Arctic high from the
west.

Asherman/Jackson

...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley...
Day 3...

....Major Winter Storm To Begin Impacting the South Central U.S.
on Friday...

The highly anticipated winter storm that is expected to impact much
of the southern and eastern U.S. this weekend begins on Friday. To
produce a winter storm of this size and magnitude, the weather
pattern must have a very cold air-mass anchored to the north. In
this case, a near record-breaking dome of high pressure to the
north is filtering in a frigid air-mass throughout much of the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper trough off the
California coast will direct subtropical East Pacific moisture at
the Southern Plains. Persistent Pacific moisture overrunning an
arctic air-mass will result in not only snow, but treacherous sleet
and freezing rain from southern Texas to the Lower MS Valley.
Exact placement of the wintry mix zone remains unclear as guidance
is adjusting how strong the WAA aloft will be, but confidence is
growing in Friday morning being the starting point for wintry
precipitation. The latest WSO through Friday afternoon (D4 WSO
shows a large footprint of >50% odds for a warning-level snowfall
event from the TX Panhandle on east through much of OK and into
central AR. Farther south, heavy sleet and hazardous freezing rain
will be more common in the heart of Texas on east to the ArkLaTex.
This storm will have wide reaching impacts through the Mid-South
and all the way to the East Coast by this weekend. Residents
affected by this storm should continue to monitor the forecast
through their local warning forecast office at weather.gov.


Mullinax



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_2.png

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026

...Significant winter storm expected from the Southern Plains to
the Mid-Atlantic bringing widespread heavy snow and ice impacts...

...Dangerous cold expected for the north-central U.S. while much
below average temperatures spread to the South and East...


...Overview...

Broad upper troughing associated with a major arctic outbreak is
forecast to persist across the eastern half of the country through
early next week. At the surface, an arctic high pressure system
will bring dangerously cold temperatures to much of the central
and eastern U.S, especially the upper Midwest where wind chills
could be near 50 degrees below zero. Meanwhile, an upper low moving
onshore into the Southwest is forecast to interact and clash with
the arctic air while ingesting Gulf moisture to produce widespread
snow and ice across the southern Plains beginning on Friday,
followed by lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Southeast, and the
Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the
aforementioned large scale pattern evolution. Model guidance
continues to trend toward a faster southward plunge of the arctic
air and the associated high pressure system into the southern U.S.
Friday into Saturday, resulting in colder temperatures than
previously predicted. It remains the case that the clash of the
arctic plunge with southern stream energy ejecting out of the
Southwest will result in a high impact winter storm across the
southern tier beginning on Friday. However, there remains quite a
bit of uncertainty mainly on the along-track timing of the southern
stream energy and the degree of interaction with the northern
stream troughing. The uncertainty will impact the timing and
placement of the snow/ice line as well as the northern gradient of
the snowfall. While these details will need to be worked out over
the coming days, a significant winter storm will likely impact a
wide swath of the south-central U.S. through the Mid-Atlantic.

The WPC medium-range forecast package was based on a consensus
blend of 40% from the 00Z EC/EC mean, 40% from the 06Z GFS/GEFS,
and 20% from the CMC/CMC mean with much of the blend coming from
the ensemble means by Day 7. This blend smooths over the model
extremes and provides a middle ground solution between the fast
GFS solution and the slow EC solution.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The two main highlights this week into the weekend will be the
significant winter storm that will impact the Southern Plains into
the Mid-Atlantic, and the dangerously cold temperatures across the
north-central portion of the country. The winter storm should
start impacting portions of the Southern Plains on Friday,
expanding eastward into the TN valley and Southeast on Saturday,
and into the Mid-Atllantic over the weekend. This is likely to be a
widespread event, with a large swath of hazardous winter
conditions.

On the southern side of this system significant freezing rain is
expected, likely resulting in dangerous travel conditions and power
outages. Given the arctic airmass in place, temperatures will
likely only be in the teens and 20s where freezing rain is
occurring, which will only act to increase travel impacts. The
exact swath of ice will a bit uncertain until we get closer to the
event...but currently the highest probabilities stretch from
portions of central TX into the lower MS Valley and into portions
of SC/NC.

To the north of this icing threat will be a swath of significant
snowfall stretching from OK into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Again, we will need to fine tune the northern and southern
gradients of this snow, and also the exact magnitudes...but a
rather wide swath of significant snowfall is likely. Temperatures
in the teens and 20s will increase travel impacts from this snow
and also result in snow ratios likely higher than climatology. This
should result in higher snowfall totals than applying a simple
10-1 ratio to QPF would give you...especially on the northern half
of the snowfall axis.

Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast to impact the north-
central U.S. starting Thursday under an arctic surface high, which
will push much colder than average temperatures farther south and
east for Friday into the weekend. The Northern Plains to Upper
Midwest can expect extreme cold, with temperatures likely reaching
20 to 30 degrees below zero by Friday and Saturday morning, and
even colder wind chills potentially reaching negative 50 degrees in
some locations. Even highs are forecast to stay below zero degrees
through Saturday in the Upper Midwest. Much colder than average
temperatures will expand into the Central Plains Friday and
towards the Gulf and East Coasts this weekend. Highs are forecast
to be in the teens as far south as Oklahoma/Missouri and across the
Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and southern New England. These
temperatures will be as much as 20-30+ degrees below average.
Temperatures may start to moderate by Monday into Tuesday as the
high weakens, though remain below normal across the Gulf Coast to
Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile the Rockies should block the cold air
from moving into the West where temperatures should generally
remain near to above average.

Kong/Chenard/Dolan


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw