I was struck by what seems to be an omission as I read this Daily Kos post about the state of the 2026 election.
As Trump tries to shore up the GOP’s fragile House majority through norms-busting mid-decade redistricting, the Cook Political Report has shifted its race ratings for 18 seats toward Democrats. The new ratings, published Thursday, look tough for Republicans.
Republicans are favored to take only three Democratic-held seats (North Carolina’s 1st, Maine’s 2nd, and Texas’ 35th districts). Beyond that, Republicans have few offensive opportunities, while some of the seats they tried to steal via redistricting remain highly competitive or still lean Democratic.
The pressure is even clearer on the Republican side. One GOP-held seat has moved to “Lean Democrat” and should flip in this environment: Nebraska’s 2nd District. And in the “tossup” category, the imbalance is striking: Just four Democratic seats are considered shaky, compared with 14 Republican seats.
This follows 11 rating changes in early November—10 shifting toward Democrats—and another four Democratic shifts later in the month. Virginia’s redistricting fight is still ahead, suggesting that Republicans’ exposure may grow.
Here’s the full Cook report. What is missing from this Daily Kos post, authored by Kos himself, is that it doesn’t take into account the current seats affected by redistricting that are now considered to be solid for the opposing party. If you click on the “Solid Republican” part of the bar, that includes Texas’ CD09 and CD32. And on the “Solid Democratic” side it includes two currently red districts from California. What may yet happen in Virginia, and also maybe Florida, remains to be seen.
You may say so what, that all cancels out, and Kos’ main point remains valid. Except that as we have noted before, CD09 and the now considered to be “Likely Republican” CD35 performed vastly differently in 2018 than they did in 2024, with a big part of the difference being the Latino shift towards Trump in 2024. If all those gains have eroded, as polls say they have been, then CD09 and CD35 are better classified as tossups, with CD32 being more Likely Republican than Solid. I won’t quibble too much on that latter rating because I don’t think there’s a notable Dem candidate in that race, and if you wanted to hedge and call CDs 09 and 35 Lean Republican that’s okay too. I’m just saying, don’t forget about those seats, and the upside for Dems in a wave year adds to the disparity that Kos highlights.
Indeed, a true best case scenario for Dems this year is not only holding onto CDs 28 (Cook rating “Lean Dem”) and 34 (“Dem Tossup”) but also CDs 09 and 35, and flipping CD15 (“Likely Republican”) to make up for losing CD32. It’s not crazy to imagine given how those districts performed in 2018. I wouldn’t bet my own money on it yet – I’d like to see things get at least a little worse for Republicans nationally, and I’d like to see both non-Senate Democrats and the non-incumbent Dem candidates in these races raise some real money first – but it’s in the conversation. The SD09 runoff could stoke this fire, or it could toss some cold water on it, or we could argue it either way afterwards. All I’m saying for now is, it’s in the conversation.