Monthly Outlook

Mild and unsettled weather is expected to continue for several days, but colder conditions should develop before the end of the coming week. Cold and wintry weather is then likely to persist into early February before a milder regime returns.

Changeable and potentially turning colder later

Low pressure over Ireland will fill this weekend, but the UK will still see scattered showers, along with areas of patchy fog. Conditions will remain unsettled through much of the coming week, with a renewed influence from Atlantic low-pressure systems and associated fronts pushing across the UK.

These will bring bands of rain and occasionally strong winds, with drier and chillier interludes in between. Any wintry precipitation should be confined to higher elevations, mainly across Scotland.

Overall, it will be relatively mild, with temperatures averaging above normal.

Later in the week, uncertainty increases, with two main scenarios emerging. One is a continuation of a similar unsettled and relatively mild pattern.

However, the more likely outcome is for high pressure to strengthen to the northeast, across Scandinavia and the Urals, and attempt to extend towards the UK.

This would have a twofold effect: pushing back Atlantic frontal systems while introducing southeasterly to easterly flows, drawing in colder air from Europe. As a result, a few wintry showers could develop.

This colder turn appears the most probable outcome and may begin by the weekend, although confidence in the exact timing remains low.

A colder-than-average period is most probable

Uncertainty continues through the end of January, but a cold scenario remains more probable than a mild one. Current indications suggest high pressure becoming established to the northeast and north of the UK, driving cold easterly winds across the country.

If this pattern develops, temperatures are likely to fall further below normal, and with occasionally stiff winds there could be sharp wind chill, especially along eastern coasts.

Penetrating frosts would be a risk, with hit-and-miss snow showers and some more organised bands of snow bringing accumulations to some areas.

That said, the forecast remains finely balanced. There is still a possibility that high pressure may build less strongly at higher latitudes, allowing Atlantic weather systems to edge farther east.

The key uncertainty is how far these systems might penetrate into northwest Europe; if they advance more decisively, a milder regime would return

Becoming milder and unsettled again at some stage

Assuming a cold regime does develop, but bearing in mind the very low confidence, it could persist into early February. A change is expected at some point, however, with cold conditions ending before mid-February, and possibly well before then.

There are indications that the jet stream may strengthen across the Atlantic, sending low-pressure systems towards the UK.

As a result, milder Atlantic-sourced air would arrive, bringing mostly seasonal to above-normal temperatures but also unsettled conditions.

Periods of wet and windy weather would be likely in this scenario, although higher elevations could still be susceptible to some wintry conditions.

By Tuesday's outlook, there should be a firmer view on whether this likely cold period will unfold, and possibly how long it may last.