Karl Rove has been out there (so to speak) predicting a Rmoney win. Is it just a pep talk to set expectations? Does he really believe it? Could it happen?

Sam Wang of Princeton Election Consortium, a.k.a. mindgeek at Kos, says it's a matter of national vs. state polls. Wang concludes this: "To put it into plain English: If state polls are accurate on the whole, then Obama will win."

For why this is so, and why it reflects the likelier case, and if you have a geeky disposition, read the Kos post. But do keep an eye on the Princeton numbers.

What will we see Tuesday? Hell if I know. Wang seems to think we'll see an Obama win. Only time will tell. But I do think Rove would be calling it for his candidate even if he didn't believe it. Some people are just born liars.

That is, of course, the title of the late great Sir Fred Hoyle's thoroughly enjoyable science fiction novel from 1966, in which an Earth assembles itself from different regions as they existed in different time periods... a truly different twist on time travel.

But it's also a statement about the law regarding many political contributions in America. You could rename Oct. 1 "Email Volume Reduction Day" and not be wrong. I shall be grateful to lose all those heart-rending pleas for money that most old folks like me simply can't spare to contribute, no matter how much they support one candidate over another. (Standard exception for Sheldon Adelson, of course.)

Then there's the big question: is Oct. 1 too late for Mitt Rmoney? Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight at the NY Times has a balanced discussion of the question. Like most of Mr. Silver's posts, this one is not easy to summarize. He casts the presidential race not with the traditional "horse‑race" metaphor, but instead as a football game. If you have any tolerance at all for the political horse‑race, please read the whole thing; you'll be glad you did.

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AFTERTHOUGHT: speaking of good science fiction and time travel, I am reminded of a scene from one of the early Star Trek movies. Capt. Kirk and Mr. Spock have been transported back to the 20^th century, and are riding a city bus. Mr. Spock's behavior is, to say the least, odd. Capt. Kirk explains it to their fellow passengers:

Too much LDS.

Maybe that's our problem in the presidential race...