CDR Salamander

As with many things in the last nine months, the bolt from the blue in the maritime national security world that was the September 2021 announcement of AUKUS - trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States - has faded from view as the more immediate and interesting Russo-Ukrainian War took the headlines.

Even without the war, as with many long-term programs that start with a flash, AUKUS would have become a background issue anyway - which is a shame.

Most are left remembering the interesting bit - nuclear submarines for the Royal Australian Navy - but is that really the most important thing about AUKUS?

Our friend Alessio Patalano over at ASPI has a nice, brief primer to tap everyone on the shoulder that, yes, we are missing the big picture;

AUKUS is not a security alliance. It holds no provision to suggest such a notion, nor were any of the steps undertaken so far aimed at making it an alliance.

AUKUS is a technology accelerator agreement for the purpose of national defence, no more, no less. It is designed to allow three countries to work closely together to translate the promise of today’s maturing technologies, such as quantum computing and artificial intelligence, into tomorrow’s military edge.

So, Anglosphere tech-bros go to sea? 

This is the second reason why AUKUS matters strategically. In a context in which advanced technology will matter increasingly more to maintain a military edge, only trusted partners will be able to achieve the most from defence collaborations.

...

This doesn’t mean that AUKUS won’t face challenges along the way before Australia deploys nuclear-powered submarines in 2040. Implementing the agreement will put national industrial capacity under pressure. Recent comments from senior American officials suggest that the idea of building the initial submarines for Australia in the US could be problematic.

...When considered against the impact of technology on future changes in systems and sensors, the division of labour is likely to remain a major changing variable.

What is certain is that one year on, AUKUS has started to chart a clear path as to what it is and why it matters. AUKUS is set on a path about a maritime-informed worldview in which accelerating advanced technology cooperation might very well make the difference in how strategic advantages can be secured and maritime stability can be maintained.

Especially if you buy in to the early-threat-theory of the People's Republic of China, 2040 is a LONG time from now - just a little under 18-years.

However, I've been blogging for 18-years and somewhere today in Australia is a 20 to 25 year old young Royal Australian Sub-Lieutenant who may wind up in 2040 being the first CO of a RAN SSN.

Time is faster than you think. Until then - if the fighting core of the Anglosphere (and in 2022 the AUKUS nations are that fighting core, sorry Canada and New Zealand) spends that time integrating their high technology developments, whatever appears as a threat in 2040 - the Anglosphere will be better positioned to face it.

As I like to do on Thanksgiving, I would like to thank one specific blessing; the US Navy's Culinary Specialists, Mess Cranks, and everyone who makes the extra effort to put together such an important feast for our Sailors on such an important national holiday.

We love you guys ... and maybe we don't say it enough - but even if we do, we'll say it again today. 

I guess this is submarine week at CDR Salamander, because right after the Wednesday post, the Anglosphere decided to wake everyone up;

Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS

SEPTEMBER 15, 2021

STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

As leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, guided by our enduring ideals and shared commitment to the international rules-based order, we resolve to deepen diplomatic, security, and defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, including by working with partners, to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century. As part of this effort, we are announcing the creation of an enhanced trilateral security partnership called “AUKUS” — Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Through AUKUS, our governments will strengthen the ability of each to support our security and defense interests, building on our longstanding and ongoing bilateral ties. We will promote deeper information and technology sharing. We will foster deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains. And in particular, we will significantly deepen cooperation on a range of security and defense capabilities.

As the first initiative under AUKUS, recognizing our common tradition as maritime democracies, we commit to a shared ambition to support Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy. Today, we embark on a trilateral effort of 18 months to seek an optimal pathway to deliver this capability. We will leverage expertise from the United States and the United Kingdom, building on the two countries’ submarine programs to bring an Australian capability into service at the earliest achievable date.

The development of Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines would be a joint endeavor between the three nations, with a focus on interoperability, commonality, and mutual benefit. Australia is committed to adhering to the highest standards for safeguards, transparency, verification, and accountancy measures to ensure the non-proliferation, safety, and security of nuclear material and technology. Australia remains committed to fulfilling all of its obligations as a non-nuclear weapons state, including with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Our three nations are deeply committed to upholding our leadership on global non-proliferation.

Recognizing our deep defense ties, built over decades, today we also embark on further trilateral collaboration under AUKUS to enhance our joint capabilities and interoperability. These initial efforts will focus on cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.

The endeavor we launch today will help sustain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. For more than 70 years, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have worked together, along with other important allies and partners, to protect our shared values and promote security and prosperity. Today, with the formation of AUKUS, we recommit ourselves to this vision.

I remain a fan of conventional submarines and are open to arguments that in our forward deployed empire, we could find a use for them, but just look at Australia’s place in the world;

That geographic imperative screams for the range and capability that only a SSN can bring to the table.

As for the French, one has to allow that they should be upset that their previous deal went south - they lost a good deal - but the world changed and they did not help themselves in a variety of ways once Australia decided to go SSN. 

The response from Emmanuel Macron’s government was unequivocal. In the early hours of 16 September, the foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and the army minister Florence Parly issued a blistering communiqué denouncing a “decision contrary to the letter and the spirit of Franco-Australian cooperation”. The statement criticised “the US’s choice … to sideline a European partner and ally”. 

In a radio interview, Le Drian went further, denouncing “a stab in the back”. He added: “We need explanations.”

“The French seem to be in shock,” said Tara Varma, the head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The AUKUS pact just just a subset of the Five Eyes subset of the larger Anglophere, just leaving Canada and the spoiled traditionally anti-nuke posturing New Zealanders to the side. Sorry France, you are a friend, but when the going gets rough ... blood and history is stronger in the Anglosphere.

Once they decided to go nuclear, tying in to the already long standing military relationship with their fellow English speaking nations - and spot welding themselves on US-UK nuclear power relationship dating back to WWII - just makes too much sense.

One thing I hope so much for is that we make this as affordable as possible for Australia. I would hope we give it to them at cost. No reason to try to get any of the development cost whichever direction the build goes. 

Helping build the infrastructure to support nuclear submarines will benefit everyone, and especially Australia - a nation that is a natural to go nuclear power for both green energy and other reasons - something this military effort could help kickstart.

How many? Let me do a back of the bar napkin guess. Australia has 7.5% of the US population and 6.5% of our GDP. Let’s mash that up as 7%.

The USN has 50 or so SSN depending on how you measure. Let’s add the 4 SSGN and round up to 55. If you round up and normalize for population/GDP that gives your 4 SSN for Australia.

Australia spends 2.1% of her GDP on defense, and rising. That $44.6 billion is roughly 6% of the USA’s $725 billion, so that doesn’t lead me to change any numbers there.

Let’s call it four boats … but wait.

How about this as an underline?

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, U.S. President Joe Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson jointly announced the formation of a new tripartite alliance known as AUKUS on Thursday (local time), under which the first initiative will to build at least eight nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy.

Make that eight. 

That, more than anything else should get your attention. There are serious things taking place as the West - and specifically the Anglosphere - is turning in to the wind coming from the Middle Kingdom.

Read the statement at the top of the post again. 

Yeah … this is a big deal. Let’s hope we do it right.

Five years ago, an exceptional American Army NCO from WWII passed away, Technician 5th grade (E4) from the 103rd Infantry Division, awarded the Bronze Star by the USA and Légion d'honneur from France.

He lived 102 years, and with him passed the last war chief of the Crow Tribe.

A great American, Joe Medicine Crow;

According to Crow tradition, a man must fulfill certain requirements to become chief of the tribe: command a war party successfully, enter an enemy camp at night and steal a horse, wrestle a weapon away from his enemy and touch the first enemy fallen, without killing him.

Joe Medicine Crow was the last person to meet that code, though far from the windswept plains where his ancestors conceived it. During World War II, when he was a scout for the 103rd Infantry in Europe, he strode into battle wearing war paint beneath his uniform and a yellow eagle feather inside his helmet. So armed, he led a mission through German lines to procure ammunition. He helped capture a German village and disarmed — but didn’t kill — an enemy soldier. And, in the minutes before a planned attack, he set off a stampede of 50 horses from a Nazi stable, singing a traditional Crow honor song as he rode away.

“I never got a scratch,” he recalled to the Billings Gazette decades later.

When people think of the freed slaves and freemen who fought for the Union in the formations then known as United States Colored Troops (USCT), they often think of July 18, 1863, when the 54th Massachusetts stormed Fort Wagner.

Sadly, that more well known event - a Union defeat - overshadows an event six weeks earlier - a Union victory - that, at the time, probably had a greater impact on the growing support in the very racist by modern standards Northern Army to arming large formations of African-Americans than anything else.

The attack on Ft. Wagner and the 54th Massachusetts were both in the Eastern theater of operations. As such, they naturally get more attention. There is so much more to learn in the often overlooked Western campaign, just you need to try harder to find it. 

This FbF, I want to draw your attention to the Western theater and a battle on June 7th, 1863 known as the Battle of Milliken's Bend upriver from Vicksburg. 

Let me set the scene. 

You just immigrated from Switzerland to the USA seven years ago. Five years ago you were a private in this new army, and two years later you find yourself a Colonel. 

You are commanding a supply depot as a side show of a side show of Grant's Vicksburg Campaign. You have a little over a 1,000 forces at your command. You are senior officer present, and with your command, the curiously named "African Brigade" by some, but to you are the 9th Louisiana Infantry (African Descent). They are almost all former slaves that you are told everyone knows will not make good soldiers. 

The rest of your forces include the 23rd Iowa Infantry and 10th Illinois Cavalry.

Facing you, with 50% more forces than you have - a brigade in Walker's Texas Division.

On the morning of June 6, Union Colonel Hermann Lieb with the African Brigade and two companies of the 10th Illinois Cavalry made a reconnaissance toward Richmond. About three miles from Richmond, Lieb encountered enemy troops at the Tallulah railroad depot and drove them back but then retired, fearing that many more Confederates might be near. While retiring, a squad of Union cavalry appeared, fleeing from a force of Rebels. Lieb got his men into battle line and helped disperse the pursuing enemy. He retired to Milliken's Bend and informed his superior by courier of his actions. The 23rd Iowa Infantry and two gunboats came to his assistance.

Walker proceeded east from Richmond at 7 p.m. June 6. At midnight, he reached Oaklawn Plantation, which was situated about 7 miles from Milliken's Bend to the north and an equal distance from Young's Point to the south. Here, he split his command. Leaving one brigade in reserve at Oaklawn, he sent one brigade under the command of Brig. Gen. Henry E. McCulloch north to Milliken's Bend, and a second brigade under the command of Brig. Gen. James M. Hawes south to Young's Point.

Around 3:00 a.m. on June 7, Confederates appeared in force and drove in the pickets. They continued their movement towards the Union left flank. The Federal forces fired some volleys that caused the Rebel line to pause momentarily, but the Texans soon pushed on to the levee where they received orders to charge. In spite of receiving more volleys, the Rebels came on, and hand-to-hand combat ensued. In this intense fighting, the Confederates succeeded in flanking the Union force and caused tremendous casualties with enfilade fire. The Union force fell back to the river’s bank. About that time Union gunboats Choctaw and Lexington appeared and fired on the Rebels. The Confederates continued firing and began extending to their right to envelop the Federals but failed in their objective. Fighting continued until noon when the Confederates withdrew. The Union pursued, firing many volleys, and the gunboats pounded the Confederates as they retreated to Walnut Bayou.

A small battle, with huge implications. It got the attention of the right people; 

Grant praised the performance of black U.S. soldiers at the battle, observing that "This was the first important engagement of the war in which colored troops were under fire," and despite their inexperience, the black troops had "behaved well." 

Assistant Secretary of War Charles A. Dana wrote, "the sentiment of this army with regard to the employment of negro troops has been revolutionized by the bravery of the blacks in the recent battle of Milliken's Bend." Having seen how they could fight, many officers were won over to arming them for the Union. Even Confederate commander Henry McCulloch said the former slaves fought with "considerably obstinacy."

U.S. Secretary of War Edwin M. Stanton also praised the performance of black U.S. soldiers in the battle. He stated that their competent performance in the battle proved wrong those who had opposed their service:

Many persons believed, or pretended to believe, and confidently asserted, that freed slaves would not make good soldiers; they would lack courage, and could not be subjected to military discipline. Facts have shown how groundless were these apprehensions. The slave has proved his manhood, and his capacity as an infantry soldier, at Milliken's Bend, at the assault upon Port Hudson, and the storming of Fort Wagner.

— Edwin M. Stanton, letter to Abraham Lincoln, (December 5, 1863)

While researching this I came across one story that bears mention.

One early recruit to join the regiment was named Jack Jackson. Jackson was said to be very large and strong-willed and quickly became a Sergeant in Company B. At some point Jackson joined the regimental recruiting parties; the officers were having trouble with convincing local field hands to join. Jackson's recruiting method was described as very forceful but ultimately successful. 

At the Battle of Milliken's Bend one of Jackson's superior officers, Lieutenant David Cornwell, described the attack; saying that the 23rd Iowa was not behaving courageously but the three black infantry regiments offered great resistance. He said that Jackson, "Laid into a group of Texans... smashing in every head he could reach", and that, "Big Jack Jackson passed me like a rocket. With the fury of a tiger he sprang into that gang and crushed everything before him. There was nothing left of Jack's gun except the barrel and he was smashing everything he could reach. On the other side of the levee, they were yelling 'Shoot that big [_______]!' while Jack was daring the whole gang to come up and fight him. Then a bullet reached his head and he fell full on the levee."

It would be a great think if Jack and the rest of the forces that fought under Lieb could see the nation they brought in to the modern era. 

It would be great to talk to them.

Fullbore.  

This has been a difficult year, and many of us are not where we want to be this Christmas, or with who we want to be with.

This too will soon pass, but to my nation's enemies, in the Christmas spirit, I will offer you this reminder for this evening;

I find it interesting what parts of our history people like to bring up ... and why. Often what is even more interesting is what they don't bring up ... and why.

In March 1863, Carney joined the Union Army and was attached to Company C, 54th Massachusetts Colored Infantry Regiment, the first official black unit recruited for the Union in the north. 

Forty other black men served with him, including two of famed abolitionist Frederick Douglass' sons. Within a few months, Carney's training would be put to the ultimate test during the unit's first major combat mission in Charleston, South Carolina. 

On July 18, 1863, the soldiers of Carney's regiment led the charge on Fort Wagner. During the battle, the unit's color guard was shot. Carney, who was just a few feet away, saw the dying man stumble, and he scrambled to catch the falling flag. 

Despite suffering several serious gunshot wounds himself, Carney kept the symbol of the Union held high as he crawled up the hill to the walls of Fort Wagner, urging his fellow troops to follow him. He planted the flag in the sand at the base of the fort and held it upright until his near-lifeless body was rescued. Even then, though, he didn't give it up. 

Many witnesses said Carney refused to give the flag to his rescuers, holding onto it tighter until, with assistance, he made it to the Union's temporary barracks. Carney lost a lot of blood and nearly lost his life, but not once did he allow the flag to touch the ground. 

His heroics inspired other soldiers that day and were crucial to the North securing victory at Fort Wagner. Carney was promoted to the rank of sergeant for his actions. For his bravery, Carney was awarded the Medal of Honor on May 23, 1900.

Carney was born into slavery in Norfolk, Virginia, in 1840. His family was eventually granted freedom and moved to Massachusetts

I wonder what Sgt. Carney would think of 2020 America and how some treat our flag today - and why.

So, what exactly have you done in your military career worth talking about? 

...Törni entered military service in 1938, joining the 4th Independent Jäger Infantry Battalion stationed at Kiviniemi; when the Winter War began in November 1939, his enlistment was extended and his unit confronted invading Soviet troops at Rautu.

During the battles at Lake Ladoga, Törni took part in the destruction of the encircled Soviet divisions in Lemetti.

His performance during these engagements was noticed by his commanders, and toward the end of the war, he was assigned to officer training where he was commissioned a Vänrikki (2nd lieutenant) in the reserves.[8] After the Winter War, in June 1941, Törni went to Vienna, Austria for seven weeks of training with the Waffen-SS, and returned to Finland in July; as a Finnish officer, the Germans recognized him as an Untersturmführer. Most of Törni's reputation was based on his successful actions in the Continuation War (1941–44) between the Soviet Union and Finland. In 1943 a unit informally named Detachment Törni was created under his command. This was an infantry unit that penetrated deep behind enemy lines and soon enjoyed a reputation on both sides of the front for its combat effectiveness. One of Törni's subordinates was future President of Finland Mauno Koivisto. Koivisto served in a reconnaissance company under Törni's command during the Battle of Ilomantsi, the final Finnish-Soviet engagement of the Continuation War, during July and August 1944. Törni's unit inflicted such heavy casualties on Soviet units that the Soviet Army placed a bounty of 3,000,000 Finnish marks on his head. He was decorated with the Mannerheim Cross on 9 July 1944.

The September 1944 Moscow Armistice required the Finnish government to remove German troops from its territory, resulting in the Lapland War; during this period, much of the Finnish Army was demobilized, including Törni, leaving him unemployed in November 1944.

Well, there's chapter 1. What is a communist hating Finn supposed to do now? Well, like many men of his age ...

In January 1945, he was recruited by a pro-German resistance movement in Finland and left for saboteur training in Germany, with the intention of organizing resistance in case Finland was occupied by the Soviet Union. The training was prematurely ended in March, but as Törni could not secure transportation to Finland, he joined a German unit to fight Soviet troops near Schwerin, Germany. He surrendered to British troops in the last stages of World War II and eventually returned to Finland in June 1945 after escaping a British POW camp in Lübeck, Germany.

He was a slippery fella ... and so ends chapter 2. But, he's not done with the communists yet;

As his family had been evacuated from Karelia, Törni sought to rejoin them in Helsinki but was arrested by Valpo, the Finnish state police.[ After escaping, he was arrested a second time in April 1946, and tried for treason for having joined the German Army. After a trial from October to November, he received a six-year sentence in January 1947. Imprisoned at the Turku provincial prison, Törni escaped in June, but was recaptured and sent to the Riihimäki State Prison. President Juho Paasikivi granted him a pardon in December 1948.

At this point you'd think he'd come to peace with Finlandization ... but no, not his style. The anti-communist game was still afoot; 

In 1949 Törni, accompanied by his wartime executive officer Holger Pitkänen, traveled to Sweden, crossing the border from Tornio to Haparanda (Haaparanta), where many inhabitants are ethnic Finns. From Haparanda, Törni traveled by railroad to Stockholm where he stayed with Baroness von Essen, who harbored many fugitive Finnish officers following the war. Pitkänen was arrested and repatriated to Finland. Remaining in Sweden, Törni fell in love with a Swedish Finn, Marja Kops, and was soon engaged to be married. Hoping to establish a career before the marriage, Törni traveled under an alias as a Swedish seaman aboard the SS Bolivia, destined for Caracas, Venezuela, where he met one of his Winter War commanders, Finnish colonel Matti Aarnio, who was in exile having settled in Venezuela after the war. From Caracas, Törni hired on to a Swedish cargo ship, the MS Skagen, destined for the United States in 1950.

While in the Gulf of Mexico, near Mobile, Alabama, Törni jumped overboard and swam to shore. Now a political refugee, Törni traveled to New York City where he was helped by the Finnish-American community living in Brooklyn's Sunset Park "Finntown". There he worked as a carpenter and cleaner. In 1953, Törni was granted a residence permit through an Act of Congress that was shepherded by the law firm of "Wild Bill" Donovan, former head of the Office of Strategic Services.

Like I said ... he was a slippery fella ... and I think you can see where this is headed;

Törni joined the US Army in 1954 under the provisions of the Lodge-Philbin Act and adopted the name Larry Thorne. In the US Army, he was befriended by a group of Finnish-American officers who came to be known as "Marttinen's Men" (Marttisen miehet).

With their support, Thorne joined the US Army Special Forces. While in the Special Forces, he taught skiing, survival, mountaineering, and guerrilla tactics. In turn he attended airborne school, and advanced in rank; attending Officer Candidate School, he was commissioned as a first lieutenant in the Signal Corps in 1957. He later received a commission and a promotion to captain in 1960. From 1958–1962 he served in the 10th Special Forces Group in West Germany at Bad Tölz, from where he was second-in-command of a search and recovery mission high in the Zagros Mountains of Iran, which gained him a notable reputation. When he was in Germany, he briefly visited his relatives in Finland. In an episode of The Big Picture released in 1962 and composed of footage filmed in 1959, Thorne is shown as a lieutenant with the 10th Special Forces Group in the United States Army.

...

Deploying to South Vietnam in November 1963 to support Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN) forces in the Vietnam War, Thorne and Special Forces Detachment A-734 were stationed in the Tịnh Biên District and assigned to operate Civilian Irregular Defense Group (CIDG) encampments at Châu Lăng and later Tịnh Biên.

During a fierce attack on the CIDG camp in Tịnh Biên, he received two Purple Hearts and a Bronze Star Medal for valor during the battle. This attack would later be described by author Robin Moore in his book The Green Berets.

Thorne's second tour in Vietnam began in February 1965 with 5th Special Forces Group; he then transferred to Military Assistance Command, Vietnam – Studies and Observations Group (MACV–SOG), a classified US special operations unit focusing on unconventional warfare in Vietnam, as a military advisor.

On 18 October 1965, as part of the operation Shining Brass, Thorne was supervising the first clandestine mission to locate Viet Cong turnaround points along the Ho Chi Minh trail and destroy them with airstrikes. Two Republic of Vietnam Air Force (RVNAF) CH-34 helicopters launched from Kham Duc Special Forces Camp and rendezvoused with a United States Air Force Cessna O-1 Bird Dog Forward Air Controller in inclement weather in a mountainous area of Phước Sơn District, Quảng Nam Province, Vietnam, 25 miles (40 km) from Da Nang. While one CH-34 descended through a gap in the weather to drop off the six-man team, the command CH-34 carrying Thorne and the O-1 loitered nearby. When the drop helicopter returned above the cloud cover, both the CH-34 and the O-1 had disappeared. Rescue teams were unable to locate the crash site. Shortly after his disappearance, Thorne was promoted to the rank of major and posthumously awarded the Legion of Merit and Distinguished Flying Cross.

After all that ... a helo midair. What a man.

We did not forget him ... and neither did his native Finland.

In 1999, Thorne's remains were found by a Finnish and Joint Task Force-Full Accounting team[nb 3] and repatriated to the United States following a Hanoi Noi Bai International Airport ceremony that included Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Ambassador Pete Peterson.

Shared grave of Thorne and fellow Vietnam War casualties in Arlington National Cemetery

Formally identified in 2003, his remains were buried on 26 June 2003 at Arlington National Cemetery, section 60, tombstone 8136, along with the RVNAF casualties of the mission recovered at the crash site. He was memorialized on the Vietnam Veterans Memorial at Panel 02E, Line 126. He was survived only by his fiancée, Marja Kops, who later remarried.

He was 46. 

This is going to be a hell of a decade or two.

If you are in a big city, get out.

If you are in a lot of debt, get out.

If you find yourself in a large crowd, get out.

If you are in a career that is in decline, get out.

If you have your kids in bad public schools, get out.

Get ready. 

If we're wrong, you'll be fine. If we're right, you'll be in a place to help yourself and others.

More good news over at USNIBlog.

Come on over; clothes to rend and teeth to gnash not included.

As we watch this vast stress test on democracy - who elected good state and local leaders and who did not - one thing is clear; there will be a reckoning in this nation in mid-June.

One of two thing will happen, and neither will be good for the relationship between the people and the politicians.

First, in response to COVID-19 we intentionally caused the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression, a crisis we still do not know the depth or breadth of. As such, by the police power of the state, we forced people in to isolation, kids out of school, people out of jobs. We prevented businesses from operating. We stopped much of civil society from happening and people getting together. This was all to "flatten the curve" by keeping people from gathering in large groups. In many locations, it became a crime.

In many of those same locations, bad mayors and governors allowed tens of thousands of people to gather this week, protest, riot and loot in tightly packed groups of people - the worst at night, running, yelling, sweating and fighting with each other.

In two weeks we will see one of two things:

1. There will be a spike in COVID-19 cases, halting the opening of the economy and putting another layer in to our economic down spin. The people will look to their political leaders to ask why they let this happen by being permissive to back actors while at the same time bearing down on regular people.

2. There will not be a spike in COVID-19 cases, opening the question as to why our political leaders crashed the economy to begin with.

Either of these will further weaken the center. People will go to the fringes. In an election year, we know how this goes.

Right now, I don't have answers - but I do know this; never before have a people been so rich and yet led so poorly.

On a not unrelated topic, if you did not catch yesterday's opening to the Tucker Carlson show - love him or hate him - give it a listen.

Given we’ve touched on similar issues a bit over the years, I would not be a good blog host if we did not offer at least one opportunity to discuss the protests and riots spreading across the nation after the killing of George Floyd under the knee of a Minneapolis police officer.

PRIME MOVER:

First I want to separate out those who are protesting his killing. These protests are peaceful, needed, justified, and probably the most American of American things. That is not the issue. We have a legitimate problem of long standing with police abuse of power, especially towards African Americans. We’ve covered this topic before, regular readers know my opinion about the warping of police culture, excessive militarization, and its secondary effects.

No, I want to talk about the riots – those who are taking advantage of this situation to promote chaos, enjoy a little violence laden LARPing … or just generally steal and destroy.

LEADERSHIP:

This was mostly avoidable – at least on a national level. Why? As with most things that go wrong, it has to do with bad leadership making bad decisions early on, compounding dangers until they create a critical mass and become self-sustaining.

The cop in Minneapolis was a known bad cop. Look it up yourself, but he had over a dozen complaints against him. His fellow cops, the local police union and the local prosecutors – including my favorite (D) presidential candidate, now-Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) - they all failed to hold him to account and to get him away from the power he so clearly enjoyed abusing.

In all areas where the police power of the state is given to people, you have to be aggressive in weeding out bad players. Politics, union policies, and misguided “loyalty” stops this from happening. If you have good strong leadership, you can burn through those barriers. The law enforcement leadership before, during, and after the killing of Floyd hopefully will be studied in detail as a latent cause of all that followed.

Next the mayor of Minneapolis and governor of Minnesota. From the start, especially the mayor, you had two men exceptionally unsuited for high office.

In democratic systems, you get the government you vote for. Will there be a change? Hard to see. Minneapolis has a single party system. Democrats have run the city for 46 of the last 47 years. (D) or (R), single party systems inevitably become incompetent and corrupt. There are exceptions, but not many. Weak people rise to the top. Q.E.D.

As for the governor, he seems to simply be a man out of his depth. He seemed poorly advised and not self-ashured enough to know when he needed to step in the vacuum created when the mayor in his major city curled up in a fetal position. Yes, both the governor and the mayor were both weakened by a rather rigid reliance on questionable ideology, but that was a secondary factor. The primary factor was simply they were not up to the job.

Because the law enforcement leadership in Minneapolis, the mayor and the governor failed to act appropriately, bad actors were able to throw gasoline on the righteous anger responding to this senseless death. From there it spread, and you’ve see the results for yourself. If they had responded properly early, the contagion of violence could have been largely contained in Minneapolis, but they failed and now we have to deal with the rest.

Some places, Atlanta, Baton Rouge, and Flint are a few examples, you saw better leadership. They stepped in – leaders to the front – early and stopped things from getting out of control. In other places another method best when used with up-front leadership, 6pm-8pm curfews followed by serious enforcement also tamped down on back actors. In some places like Louisville and even in DC and NYC, you had valid protesters, turn on bad actors trying to turn protests in to riots, even turning them over to police.

What we have now is a great laboratory nation wide on who has good leaders working with institutions with high social capital, and which cities will suffer without either or both.

TERRORISTS:

Now to our Black Block; ANTIFA. The fact these are a problem should not be a surprise. They showed up in 2016 and were there for everyone to see after Trump’s inauguration. In summary, they will use any legitimate protest and an opportunity to bring violence for the sake of violence. They want to radicalize the people. They deserve the full weight of the State on their head. I wish all of them ill.

Of course, in the background we still have the COVID-19 outbreak going on. I remember reading a few weeks ago, the author(s) names escape me, a concern that having so many people in isolation while their jobs and lives waste away in front of them, was creating a pile of tinder waiting for a spark. Well, this was it. I don’t think you can discount this in trying to understand why the protests spread so fast.

COVID-19:

In the knowledge that a virus does not care why we do what we do, you have to wonder if there is any thing more handy for COVID-19 than a bunch of people running round in packs at night yelling and spitting on each other? We will find out in 2-weeks what COVID-19 thinks. An interesting accidental experiment we are running here.

CITIES:

We may be past the peek of new urbanism. The last 30-yrs has seen the slow drive to revive big city living from the nadir of the late 60s to late 80s. Remarkable progress has been made in bringing back retail and residential. I’ve seen it. I remember what NYC, DC, Norfolk etc was like in the late-70s to mid-80s. I’ve seen what they became in the last decade. How do they pick up after the 1-2 punch of COVID-19 and the looting and burning? I have no idea, but I don’t think the smart money is going to invest there any time soon.

WHAT’S NEXT:

That leads to the larger economy. COVID-19’s devastation still is not fully understood by the public, but it is there. Economies do not like uncertainty – civil unrest does not help at all – especially compounding on top of a pandemic.

Where to from here? Many more cards need to come out of the deck, but so far 2020 is not giving us a good hand.

Help where you can and be careful who you listen to and who you ignore. Layered on top of this is the fact this is an election year – the absolute worst time to try to keep people together.

All we can do is talk with well meaning people of all stripes, and focus together on the bad actors – those who loot, burn, and vandalize. Listen to each others concerns. Listen to their worries. Hold police, politicians, and self-appointed community leader to account if they don’t do the same.

If you are at a high level of anxiety right now because of COVID-19, you probably need to look at different coping mechanisms. We are weeks from the peak.

There are a lot of places out there that have just plain bad information coming from either bad players, ignorance, malice, or what could be the worst - those on either side trying to find political gain from a pandemic.

Others can Monday morning quarterback or time travel if they wish, but we are where we are & plus or minus a few days, I doubt within a half-standard deviation anyone would have done anything different to bring us to a different place.

The more we know about the virus and the more we have solid metrics coming in from Europe, the better our modeling will be.

I think the best place to go is the CDC. Check on a regular basis as they are updating modeling as more information reveals itself from the data, but the critical takeaway is that we are heading in to the most difficult month.

Mid-April will be rough.

Don't be surprised, unprepared, or paralyzed by panic. Be informed.

These graphs should tell you what you need to know.

This bit from Simon Kupor at FT has to be parody, but the emanations from the internationalist bubble-people makes it hard to tell. Even if parody ... deep down this is how a lot of people who so hate the Republican  led USA and Tory led UK think.

Either way, what a fun read this is. If parody, it isn't all that good of a parody ... or is it?

All I can think of is what I like to tell alternative history types who wonder, "What if foreign powers intervened in our civil war?"

Well, I know what would have happened last time; Grant and Lee would have stopped shooting at each other and would have slaughtered whatever foreign power landed on US soil, and then returned to their fratricidal madness.

In this scenario, I don't know about where you live, but if this was tried in my corner of the Union, almost all but opportunistic tone deaf grifters would - even if the US military disbanded - tell the commander of the nearest Belgian/Brazilian/Bangladeshi battalion who landed,

"Excuse us, but would you please leave? Yes, I know you have orders and you are where you are right now, but I'll tell you what; if you don't leave your base, you'll be fine for 2-weeks. You need to leave inside 2-weeks. If any of your people go on any patrol, they will be considered hostile by militia forces - which by the Florida Constitution is,

The militia consists of all able-bodied citizens of this state and all other able-bodied persons who have declared their intention to become citizens.

We want everyone to go home, so please move along. If you can't leave in two weeks, then you will have to surrender all your heavy weapons you cannot carry on the ship we will provide for your transport to The Bahamas. If you do not leave, we will have to kill everyone armed foreign national who does not surrender. Sorry, those are the rules. Governor DeSantis did not invite you & we don't recognize the UN authority inside our boundaries.

Thank you very much and have a nice day."

Some on the left seem gripped by new civil war fantasies. These people are not well. Do they even live a real life? Well, they think it is possible, so we will have to deal with their fevered foolishness.

You can almost smell how much he hates Anglosphere success, especially the American version, and he can't help himself.

The entering assumption here is that an "International Intervention" force would succeed. What would we call it, the American Stabilization Intervention Force (ASIF)?

Yes that is perfect. ASIF. As. If. 

Anyway. It would never reach the point where the fevered internationalists would be able to,

“How to stop a civil war” says the cover of the latest Atlantic magazine. I can suggest a fix: the international community should intervene in the US. Of course Americans have a right to self-determination but the priority now is saving democracy.
...
...the first step is power sharing: a transitional government that includes all conflicting sides. ... Next comes an Afghan-style loya jirga, or grand assembly, to kick off a national dialogue. ...

Americans may also need to abandon the polarising impeachment of Donald Trump and let him seek exile in a friendly country: the model could be Ukraine’s kleptocratic pro-Kremlin former president Viktor Yanukovich, now based out of Russia.

The loya jirga writes a new constitution. This would be Britain’s first, and for the US, a much-needed update of its antiquated 1787 document. Japanese jurists could help draft it as a thank you to Americans for writing Japan’s excellent 1947 constitution.

The new text would dispense with vagaries such as “high crimes and misdemeanours”, define presidential corruption and end political control of the judiciary. If it’s undemocratic for the Polish or Hungarian governments to appoint judges, why can the US president do it?
... The US’s second republic will also need a new electoral system that favours coalitions instead of winner-takes-all rule. ...

At best, intervention will freeze the US’s overlapping ethnic, economic and regional conflicts. The question for the international community then becomes: how much blood and treasure is it willing to expend on a country that may not be ready for democracy?

Relax Simon, we know you're trying to be funny here (I think), but child please. We actually have less "ethnic, economic, and regional conflicts" in the USA than we have ever had in my short half-century+ on the planet.

As long as the excitable, bitter, ahistorical types are kept from power, we're fine.

Also, don't send the IC here if we do have a civil war. We only solve that one way - bleed each other until one side is exhausted. If foreign power try to get in our way, we'll just, as outlined above, turn our guns, warehouses of NH4NO3,  and redneck technicals on you until you leave.

We'd have enough trouble burying each other - we really don't have the resources to bury all of you too.

Most of the regulars here probably remember my post from almost exactly four years ago, "Why do some become quiet?"

Another author seems to be feeling the same subtle vibration in the undercarriage; David Samuels over at The Tablet.

Another thing that residents of the broad North American expanse between Canada and Mexico have noticed is that the programs and remedies that this class has promoted, both at home and abroad, have greatly enriched and empowered a small number of people, namely themselves—while the broader American population continues to decline in wealth, health, and education. Meanwhile, the American Empire that the ruling elite administers is collapsing. The popularity of such observations on both the left and the right is what accounts for the rise of Donald Trump, on one hand, and of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on the other hand, among an electorate that has not been historically distinguished by its embrace of radicalism. Add those voter bases together, and perhaps 75% of Americans would seem to agree that their country, however you think of it, is in big trouble, and that the fault lies with the country’s self-infatuated and apparently not-so-brilliant elite.

Every student of history has their own theory about how and why empires fall. My theory is this: The wealth of any empire flows disproportionately to the capital, where it nourishes the growth, wealth, and power of the ruling elite. As the elite grows richer and more powerful, the gulf between the rulers and the ruled widens, until the beliefs and manners of the elite bear little connection to those of their countrymen, whom they increasingly think of as their clients or subjects. That distance creates resentment and friction, in response to which the elite takes measures to protect itself. The more wealth and power the elite controls, the more insulation it must purchase. Disastrous mistakes are hailed as victories or are made to appear to have no consequences at all, in order to protect the aura of collective infallibility that protects ruling class power and privilege.

What happens next is pretty much inevitable in every time and place—Spain, France, Great Britain, Moghul India, you name it: Freed from the laws of gravity, the elite turns from the hard work of correct strategizing and wise policymaking to the much less time-consuming and much more pleasant work of perpetuating its own privileges forever, in the course of which endeavor the ruling elite is revealed to be a bunch of idiots and perverts who spend their time prancing around half naked while setting the territories they rule on fire. The few remaining decent and competent people flee this revolting spectacle, while the elite compounds its mistakes in an orgy of failure. The empire then collapses.

H/t Chap.

When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected, whereby the Legislative Powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary Powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation, and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & Perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. — And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.

New Hampshire:
Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton

Massachusetts:
John Hancock, Samuel Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry

Rhode Island:
Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery

Connecticut:
Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott

New York:
William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris

New Jersey:
Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark

Pennsylvania:
Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross

Delaware:
Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean

Maryland:
Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton

Virginia:
George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton

North Carolina:
William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn

South Carolina:
Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton

Georgia:
Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton

Now and then I go on a twitter thread that I feel I need to bring over here.

I know not everyone on the Front Porch are on twitter, and I value your opinion more than most. As such. I feel that I should do what I can to keep you up to speed on where I stand on important issues. Hopefully, that will help you understand why I post what I do here.

The below will not be news to long-term readers, but we have plenty of new ones - so I guess it is time.

Well, at the end of last week, David Larter posted something that prompted me to remind everyone of what has been my foundational stand on what our national strategy SHOULD be, but isn't.

We continue to read confusion, frustration, and general discontent with "strategy" attempts coming out of DC. If you look at it from a distance, it really makes sense that none of it makes sense or fits.

Part of this is institutional inertia, the other part is simple pocketbook issues. At lot of “that town” owes their paychecks, sponsorship, underwriting, ego, PhD, and designated parking spaces to maintaining the American quasi-empire.

I guess this is another opportunity to bring up the 25-yr old “Salamander Strategic Reset” pondered out by LT Salamander a couple of years after the end of the Cold War and slightly revised through the years.

1. First, know the challenge: The Soviet Union was a rather unique global challenge that lasted decades and as such warped our perception of ourselves. The Soviet Union died by its own hand, and still high off the false mirage of the DESERT STORM easy victory that immediately preceded it, we became infatuated with our sudden dominance astride the world - “peace dividend” or not.

Through the 90's GBR, CAN, BEL, FRA, NLD and other armies decamped from Germany after the fall of the Soviet Union, but we did not. Why? We became addicted to being what we are not designed to be; a quasi-empire.

2. Know yourself: we are by design a mercantile republic, not an empire, yet to keep the Soviets at bay for over four decades, we adopted the mantle of one. It is not a natural state. We are blessed with good neighbors, two oceans, and for the moment the best global economy. Our responsibility to the world is an example of solid economics and good government - not enforcer of order.

3. Know the state of man: there will always be tyrants. To live under tyranny is the basic state of man. A higher state of man with liberty and free discourse must be desired and fought for by the people it will impact - it cannot be imposed by an external power and then left to the imposed to implement in the long term. It will be seen as foreign to the people it is being imposed on, and the people will become an antibody to it. A nation will bleed itself white of blood, treasure, and legitimacy wandering the planet looking for monsters to slay. There will always be monsters. If you set on that quest, it will never end.

4. Bring them home: We should not be garrisoning the world as we approach the 3rd decade of the 21st Century. Our allies are strong and well populated enough to be their own 1st line of defense and we do not need to be on their ramparts so that they can work on other projects. We should have no maneuver forces based on the land of our allies. Zero. We should not have any of our naval forces based in the ports of foreign nations on a permanent basis. With our allies, can we have combined training, HQ and logistics bases? Absolutely. Should we on a regular basis have large scale exercises where we surge forces from the USA and back? Absolutely. That is our natural state.

5. Play to our comparative advantage: Again, we have friendly land borders and two large oceans. We are a maritime and aerospace power, not a land empire. We are blessed with resources, talent, stable government and rule of law unprecedented in the history of mankind. That is what we are undermining by trying for force the unnatural fit of empire. The secondary effects here and globally are clear for all to see if they wish to.

6. Land reserve: we have no standing need for large standing ground forces. None. Outside short notice aggressive war on our part, there is no reason we need the active duty ground forces we have. Our design and national character has the answer for us; the vast majority of our ground force capability in peace should be in a robust and diverse National Guard system. We can activate and bring up to full readiness as needed. As doing so would be a significant disruption to economies and families throughout every community in the USA, it will stand as a check on those who have a desire to try out their dreams of global empire. The nation will have to be behind it, not a klatch of think-tanks, politicians, media types, militarists, or excitable residents of Blobistan. Well equipped, distributed, and fully part of every part of the USA. Let the vast majority of our Army (and mobilization enablers in USAF/USN) be of and from the citizenry.

7. An expeditionary mindset: We should have a reasonable active army and USMC, but they should be expeditionary by design and scalable w/integrated reserve and National Guard components that will flesh them out. There are a variety of ways to design this active force, but it will only be a much smaller % of today's. Active component+reserves+National Guard units - actual numbers may be more. We will need more logistics, air and sea, in reserve/National Guard status - and that should be just fine.

So, that is the Executive Summary. You really want to “break the wheel” of strategic stumbling, drift and inertial? This is a way to do it.

You will make lots of enemies doing it - but in your heart you know it is the right thing to do.

I offer this final point: wonder why our efforts to find/write/create a strategy that people understand simply has not worked the last decade+? I’ll tell you why, because they really do not fit with our natural character or the global reality.

Return from empire. It will be OK.