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## Forecasts
arma11.pred <- predict(arma11, n.ahead = 10)
predict <- ts(c(rep(NA, length(y) - 1), y[length(y)],
arma11.pred$pred), start = 1909,
frequency = 1)
upper <- ts(c(rep(NA, length(y) - 1), y[length(y)],
arma11.pred$pred + 2 * arma11.pred$se),
start = 1909, frequency = 1)
lower <- ts(c(rep(NA, length(y) - 1), y[length(y)],
arma11.pred$pred - 2 * arma11.pred$se),
start = 1909, frequency = 1)
observed <- ts(c(y, rep(NA, 10)), start=1909,
frequency = 1)
## Plot of actual and forecasted values
plot(observed, type = "l",
ylab = "Actual and predicted values", xlab = "")
lines(predict, col = "blue", lty = 2)
lines(lower, col = "red", lty = 5)
lines(upper, col = "red", lty = 5)
abline(v = 1988, col = "gray", lty = 3)
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