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WO2000067191A2 - Procede de prevision de la demande de biens au moyen de boucles de demande auto-organisatrices - Google Patents

Procede de prevision de la demande de biens au moyen de boucles de demande auto-organisatrices Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2000067191A2
WO2000067191A2 PCT/US2000/012471 US0012471W WO0067191A2 WO 2000067191 A2 WO2000067191 A2 WO 2000067191A2 US 0012471 W US0012471 W US 0012471W WO 0067191 A2 WO0067191 A2 WO 0067191A2
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WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
services
goods
levels
hierarchy
options
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Ceased
Application number
PCT/US2000/012471
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English (en)
Other versions
WO2000067191A3 (fr
Inventor
Stuart A. Kauffman
James W. Herriot
Vince A. Darley
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
BIOS GROUP LP
Original Assignee
BIOS GROUP LP
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by BIOS GROUP LP filed Critical BIOS GROUP LP
Priority to AU51269/00A priority Critical patent/AU5126900A/en
Publication of WO2000067191A2 publication Critical patent/WO2000067191A2/fr
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical
Publication of WO2000067191A3 publication Critical patent/WO2000067191A3/fr
Ceased legal-status Critical Current

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Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising

Definitions

  • the present invention relates generally to a system and method for predicting future demand for goods and/or services. More specifically, the invention provides a system and method for predicting future demand for goods and/or services based on information obtained from offering for sale options for the goods and/or services at different levels of product, regional and temporal hierarchies.
  • a consumer product company is a central member of a supply chain which takes in ⁇ r raw materials, modifies and combines those raw materials, stores and transports goods in various stages of manufacture and distribution to warehouse and retail outlets, and ultimately specific stock keeping units, SKUs, are purchased by consumers for use.
  • the demand for goods and services can also be categorized according to geographic regions and time periods in which the product and/or services are desirable. In general, the capacity to predict demand is bad at low levels of the product Linnean
  • Futures markets and options of a wide variety exist with respect to both financial instruments and real goods, including commodities such as wheat, corn, soybeans.
  • a futures market for a commodity specifies a price, a time and place of delivery, and possible ancillary contingent conditions.
  • An option affords the buyer of the option the option to purchase the commodity future delivery at a specified date and place and quantity.
  • a futures contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties to buy or sell in the future, on a designated exchange, a specific quantity of a commodity at a specific price.
  • the buyer and seller of a futures contract agree now on a price for a product to be delivered or paid for at a set time in the future, known as the "settlement date.”
  • settlement date a set time in the future
  • An option on a commodity futures contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties which gives the buyer, who pays a market determined price known as a "premium,” the right (but not the obligation), within a specific time period, to exercise his option. Exercise of the option will result in the person being deemed to have entered into a futures contract at a specified price known as the "strike price.”
  • an option may confer the right to buy or sell the underlying asset directly, and these options are known as options on the physical asset.
  • the present invention provides a system and method for predicting future demand for goods and/or services based on information obtained from offering for sale options for the goods and/or services at different levels of product, regional and temporal hierarchies.
  • the invention is a novel business process that enables operations for realtime coupling of production and consumption, which has heretofore never been achieved.
  • the present invention provides a method for predicting demand for one or more goods and/or services.
  • the method comprises the steps of: defining at least one hierarchy having one or more levels for said one or more goods and/or services; offering for sale one or more options for said one or more goods and/or services at different levels of said one or more levels of said at least one hierarchy; and predicting demand for said one or more goods and/or services from purchases of said options.
  • the levels of hierarchy for the goods and/or services are defined based on the nature of the products in an analogous manner to the Linnean hierarchy of species, genus, family, class, order, phylum in biology, wherein higher levels correspond to more abstract descriptions of the goods and/or services and lower levels correspond to more detailed descriptions of the goods and/or services.
  • the levels of hierarchy for the goods and/or services are defined in terms of geographic regions such as local, state, regional, national, continental and global regions. Higher levels of the hierarchy correspond to larger regions and lower levels correspond to smaller regions.
  • the levels of hierarchy for the goods and/or services are defined in terms of periods of time such as minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years, wherein higher levels of the hierarchy correspond to longer periods of time and lower levels correspond to shorter periods of times. service.
  • the goods can be commodities, consumer products and financial instruments and the services can be financial services, transportation and delivery services, and household services.
  • the present invention further provides a system for predicting demand for one or more goods and/or services.
  • the system comprises: means for defining at least one hierarchy having one or more levels for said one or more goods and/or services; means for offering for sale one or more options for said one or more goods and/or services at different levels of said one or more levels of said at least one hierarchy; and means for predicting demand for said one or more goods and/or services from purchases of said options.
  • the system further comprises means for communicating the options and purchases.
  • the present invention further provides a system for predicting consumer demand for goods and/or services.
  • the system comprises: (a) one or more suppliers of the goods and/or services, wherein the suppliers define at least one hierarchy having one or more levels for the goods and/or services, offer for sale one or more options for the goods and/or services at different levels of said one or more levels of said at least one hierarchy, and predict demand for said goods and/or services from purchases of said options; and (b) one or more consumers of the goods and/or services, wherein the consumers making said purchases of said options.
  • the system for predicting consumer demand for goods and/or services further comprises a network for communicating said one or more options and said purchases among said suppliers and said consumers.
  • the network is the World Wide Web.
  • the present invention further provides computer executable software code stored on a computer readable medium for predicting demand for goods and/or services.
  • the code comprises: code for defining at least one hierarchy having one or more levels for said one or more goods and/or services; code for offering for sale one or more options for said one or more goods and/or services at different levels of said one or more levels of said at least one hierarchy; and code for predicting demand for said one or more goods and/or services from purchases of said options.
  • the present invention provides a programed computer system for predicting demand for goods and/or services comprising at least one memory having at least one region storing computer executable program code and at least one processor for executing the program code stored in said memory.
  • the program code comprises: code for defining at least one hierarchy having one or more levels for said one or more goods and/or serv ces; co e or o er ng or sa e one or more op ons or sa one or more goo s an or services at different levels of said one or more levels of said at least one hierarchy; and code for predicting demand for said one or more goods and/or services from purchases of said options.
  • Figure 1 illustrates a method 100 for predicting demand for one or more goods and/or services.
  • Figure 2 illustrates the major components of the system 200 of the present invention for predicting demand for goods and/or services.
  • Figure 3 illustrates a representative computer system 300, in conjunction with which the embodiments of the present invention may be implemented.
  • the present invention provides a system and method for predicting future demand for goods and/or services based on information obtained from offering for sale options for the goods and/or services.
  • the invention utilizes electronic markets, characterization of goods and services based on using at least one hierarchy, and consumer revealed preferences through purchasing of the goods and services at different levels of the hierarchy.
  • future and option markets function to hedge risk due to volatility in price, or other features such as availability at the date and time and volume required. But futures and options not only allow risk hedging, they thereby typically can smooth the underlying markets. Even more important for the present invention, futures and options contain information that estimates future demand and future prices. Thus, if the corn futures look more valuable than the soybean futures, a farmer may choose to plant more corn than soybean.
  • the present invention unifies the advantages of future and option markets, electronic selling and buying, and the need for producers to have good forecasts of consumer demand for existing and potential new goods in a real time manner that constructively impacts supply chain performance.
  • a method for synthesizing potential new goods is described in U.S. patent application 09/080,040, titled, "A System and Method for the Synthesis of an Economic Web and the Identification of New market Niches", filed 5/15/98, the contents of which are herein incorporated by reference.
  • the cornerstone invention utilizes electronic markets and futures and options over SKUs at different levels of the SKU hierarchy, regional and temporal scales, to allow customers an pro ucers to edge risk, an s multaneously yield real time forecasts of customer demand based on customer preferences, as revealed by prices at which such futures and options are currently trading. It is a further feature of this invention to utilize a variety of data mining techniques to analyze the resulting price series of single and multiple futures and options over SKUs at different levels of the SKU, regional, and temporal hierarchy in order to obtain improved demand forecasting.
  • the money raised thereby can fund the excess production or transport of the SKUs for which excess demand is present.
  • the creation of a futures and options trading system for a wide range of goods and services affords a mechanism which endogenously helps smooth and autoregulate the supply chain.
  • product includes both goods and services.
  • Product hierarchy or “SKU hierarchy” is used to mean descriptions of goods and/or services based on the nature and character of the goods and/or services.
  • Regional hierarchy is used to mean the supply and/or demand of goods and/or services within specified geographic regions.
  • Temporal hierarchy is used to mean the supply and/or demand of goods and/or services within specified periods of time.
  • Figure 1 illustrates a method for predicting demand for one or more goods and/or services 100.
  • the method for predicting demand 100 defines a hierarchy for one or more goods and/or services. Preferably, the hierarchy has multiple levels.
  • the method for predicting demand 100 offers for sale options at different levels of the hierarchy.
  • the method 100 predicts demand from sales of the options.
  • the levels of hierarchy for the goods and/or services are defined in terms of product nature and description in an analogous manner to the Linnean hierarchy of species, genus, family, class, order, phylum in biology, wherein higher levels correspond to more abstract descriptions of the goods and/or services and lower levels correspond to more detailed descriptions of the goods and/or services.
  • Head and Shoulder shampoo in a specific package can be described at a species level. It can also be described as a species of the genus of Head and Shoulder shampoos, which in turn is a member of the family of anti-dandruff shampoos.
  • the class of shampoos includes anti-dandruff and other shampoos.
  • the order of hair care product would include, as a member, the class of shampoo and other classes of hair care products, such as the class of conditioners.
  • a higher level, the phylum of personal hygiene products would include, as a member, the order of hair care product. It should be pointed out that neither the description and characterization of the products, nor the number of levels in the product hierarchy is limited to the categories of the above example. A person skilled in the art hierarchy are proper for a given product.
  • the levels of hierarchy for the goods and/or services are defined in terms of geographic regions such as local, state, regional, national, continental and global regions where the options for the goods and/or services are offered for sale. Higher levels of the hierarchy correspond to larger regions and lower levels correspond to smaller regions. The regional hierarchy is more important for some products than for others. For example, the sale of options for snow blowers would be more region sensitive than the sale of options for stocks. A person skilled in the art would understand the proper ways to define geographic regions for specific goods and/or services.
  • the levels of hierarchy for the goods and/or services are defined in terms of periods of time such as minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years, wherein higher levels of the hierarchy correspond to longer periods of time and lower levels correspond to shorter periods of times.
  • the characterization of the temporal hierarchy is also dependent on the nature of the products. For example, prices for stock options may change by the minute, while prices for services for lawn-mowing may change only once a year. A person skilled in the art would understand the proper length for the temporal hierarchy for a particular product.
  • options for the goods or service are offered for sale at different levels of the hierarchies.
  • offers for options can be made for Head and Shoulder shampoos, for anti-dandruff shampoos, or for shampoos.
  • the options can be valid for the next seven days, the next four weeks, or the next six months.
  • the offers can be made to people in the Washington DC area, to people in the Mid- Atlantic region, or to people in the United States.
  • the goods and services suitable for the present invention can be any goods or service.
  • the goods can be commodities, consumer products and financial instruments and the services can be financial services, transportation and delivery services, and household services.
  • sales data based on offers accepted is received and analyzed to predict future demand for the goods and services.
  • Prediction of future demand for the goods and/or products can be made using any method and/or process suitable for such predictions and known to persons skilled in the art.
  • the present invention also encompasses the utilization of information on sales of options for goods and/or services from other sources, such as information from futures and options market on commodities and financial instruments and information from a particular manufacturer of goods or supplier of services.
  • the information thus obtained is then used along with the information from the sales of options at different levels of the hierarchies to predict consumer demand.
  • publicly or otherwise available data is utilized to further help predicting future demand.
  • Figure 2 illustrates the major components of the system of the present invention for predicting demand for goods and/or services 200.
  • the system 200 comprises one or more suppliers 202 and one or more consumers 204 of the goods and/or services.
  • the suppliers 202 define hierarchies characterizing goods and/or services, and offer options at different levels of these hierarchies to consumers 204.
  • the consumers 204 make purchases of these options.
  • the suppliers 202 predict demand for the goods and/or services from the purchases of the options.
  • consumers 204 and suppliers 202 communicate via a communication network 206.
  • the communication network 206 is the World Wide Web.
  • FIG. 3 illustrates a representative computer system 300 in conjunction with which the embodiments of the present invention may be implemented.
  • Computer system 300 may be a personal computer, workstation, or a larger system such as a minicomputer.
  • a personal computer workstation
  • a larger system such as a minicomputer.
  • the present invention is not limited to a particular class or model of computer.
  • representative computer system 300 includes a central processing unit (CPU) 302, a memory unit 304, one or more storage devices 306, an input device 308, an output device 310, and communication interface 312.
  • a system bus 314 is provided for communications between these elements.
  • Computer system 300 may additionally function through use of an operating system such as Windows, DOS, or UNIX.
  • Windows Windows, DOS, or UNIX.
  • one skilled in the art of computer systems will understand that the present invention is not limited to a particular configuration or operating system.
  • Storage devices 306 may illustratively include one or more floppy or hard disk drives, CD-ROMs, DVDs, or tapes.
  • Input device 308 comprises a keyboard, mouse, microphone, or other similar device.
  • Output device 310 is a computer monitor or any other known computer output device.
  • Communication interface 312 may be a modem, a network n er ace, or r ex ern , uc as a ser a or para e por

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Abstract

La présente invention concerne de manière générale un système et un procédé de prévision de la future demande de biens et/ou de services. L'invention concerne, plus particulièrement, un système et un procédé de prévision de la future demande de biens et/ou de services à partir des données obtenues de l'offre d'options de vente de biens et/ou de services à différents niveaux dans la hiérchachie des produits, régionale et temporelle.
PCT/US2000/012471 1999-05-05 2000-05-05 Procede de prevision de la demande de biens au moyen de boucles de demande auto-organisatrices Ceased WO2000067191A2 (fr)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
AU51269/00A AU5126900A (en) 1999-05-05 2000-05-05 A method for predicting product demand using self-organizing demand loops

Applications Claiming Priority (2)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
US13287399P 1999-05-05 1999-05-05
US60/132,873 1999-05-05

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
WO2000067191A2 true WO2000067191A2 (fr) 2000-11-09
WO2000067191A3 WO2000067191A3 (fr) 2007-06-14

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AU (1) AU5126900A (fr)
WO (1) WO2000067191A2 (fr)

Cited By (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
WO2002079933A3 (fr) * 2001-03-29 2003-05-22 Verticalnet Software Llc Procede et appareil de gestion de l'offre et de la demande dans un environnement structure
SG108883A1 (en) * 2001-11-27 2005-02-28 World Co Ltd Sales forecasting apparatus and sales forecasting method
US6952678B2 (en) 2000-09-01 2005-10-04 Askme Corporation Method, apparatus, and manufacture for facilitating a self-organizing workforce
US7644009B2 (en) 2001-11-09 2010-01-05 Siebel Systems, Inc. Method for forecasting and revenue management
US7761324B2 (en) * 2001-11-09 2010-07-20 Siebel Systems, Inc. Forecasting and revenue management system
US8065178B2 (en) 2003-12-09 2011-11-22 Siebel Systems, Inc. Method and system for automatically generating forecasts
US8285632B2 (en) 2008-11-14 2012-10-09 Infosurv, Inc. Method and apparatus for on-line prediction of product concept success

Family Cites Families (6)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US5712985A (en) * 1989-09-12 1998-01-27 Lee; Michael D. System and method for estimating business demand based on business influences
US5854746A (en) * 1990-04-28 1998-12-29 Kanebo, Ltd. Flexible production and material resource planning system using sales information directly acquired from POS terminals
US5245533A (en) * 1990-12-18 1993-09-14 A. C. Nielsen Company Marketing research method and system for management of manufacturer's discount coupon offers
NZ250926A (en) * 1993-02-23 1996-11-26 Moore Business Forms Inc Relational database: product, consumer and transactional data for retail shopping targeting
JP3767954B2 (ja) * 1996-11-07 2006-04-19 富士通株式会社 需要予測装置
US6029139A (en) * 1998-01-28 2000-02-22 Ncr Corporation Method and apparatus for optimizing promotional sale of products based upon historical data

Cited By (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US6952678B2 (en) 2000-09-01 2005-10-04 Askme Corporation Method, apparatus, and manufacture for facilitating a self-organizing workforce
WO2002079933A3 (fr) * 2001-03-29 2003-05-22 Verticalnet Software Llc Procede et appareil de gestion de l'offre et de la demande dans un environnement structure
US7644009B2 (en) 2001-11-09 2010-01-05 Siebel Systems, Inc. Method for forecasting and revenue management
US7761324B2 (en) * 2001-11-09 2010-07-20 Siebel Systems, Inc. Forecasting and revenue management system
SG108883A1 (en) * 2001-11-27 2005-02-28 World Co Ltd Sales forecasting apparatus and sales forecasting method
US8065178B2 (en) 2003-12-09 2011-11-22 Siebel Systems, Inc. Method and system for automatically generating forecasts
US8285632B2 (en) 2008-11-14 2012-10-09 Infosurv, Inc. Method and apparatus for on-line prediction of product concept success

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
AU5126900A (en) 2000-11-17
WO2000067191A3 (fr) 2007-06-14

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