JP2007156696A - Thermoelectric demand forecast device and behavior information reporting device - Google Patents

Abstract

Provided is a thermoelectric demand forecasting apparatus capable of accurately forecasting a thermoelectric demand without requiring a member of each consumer to determine a demand plan for a thermoelectric load in advance.
When a behavioral information is received from a customer's house 1 in a thermoelectric demand forecasting device 3, when the received behavior information is stored in a behavior information DB 24, the thermoelectric demand forecasting side 23 obtains the behavior information from the behavior information. For example, the demand for thermoelectric power consumed by an air conditioner or hot water supply is predicted. Thereafter, when the measurement result of the thermoelectric demand from the customer's house 1 is received, the consumer information storage unit 22 associates the measurement result with the behavior information in the behavior information DB 24 by the member of the consumer, and the thermoelectric demand. It is stored in the quantity DB 25.
[Selection] Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to an apparatus for predicting a thermoelectric demand amount of a consumer such as a household having one or more thermal loads and one or more electric loads.

  When an operation plan for a generator such as cogeneration is made, for example, as in the technique disclosed in Non-Patent Document 1, a demand for thermoelectric demand of a consumer is predicted. This is a technology that stores a consumer's past daily load curve for a certain period and makes a prediction based on the database. Here, the thermoelectric demand is obtained by converting energy consumption of a device that generates heat using electric power or gas into heat.

In recent years, there is a distributed energy community in which a generator or the like is combined as a distributed power source. This is an effective use of energy by allowing consumers to exchange energy with each other. As a method for performing low-cost operation control in this distributed energy community, the energy supply and demand described in Patent Document 1 is described. There are control methods and devices. This is an energy supply and demand control method and apparatus applied to a distributed energy community capable of thermoelectricity exchange between a plurality of thermoelectric consumer homes equipped with a distributed power source and energy storage means, and power purchase and sale with an electric power company. The prediction process in this apparatus is executed based on demand plan information for each thermoelectric load notified from a member of the consumer in advance using an email or a scheduler function.
Kuraishi et al., “Optimal Operation of CGS for Home Use Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming”, 2004, The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, Power Technology Study Group, VOL. PE04, NO. 94 JP 2005-86953 A

  In the conventional method for predicting the amount of thermoelectric demand described above, when a prediction is made from a past daily load curve, if a member of the customer performs an action different from the past trend, the prediction accuracy is lowered. . In addition, when reflecting the declaration of a customer in the prediction, a member of each consumer must make a declaration after making a demand plan for a thermoelectric load in advance.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a thermoelectric demand prediction device and a behavior information reporting device that can accurately predict a thermoelectric demand amount without a member of each consumer determining a demand plan for a thermoelectric load in advance. .

In order to achieve the above object, the thermoelectric demand prediction device of the present invention is:
Behavior information indicating the content of the behavior of an arbitrary time ahead and / or the behavior of an arbitrary time before declared by a member of a customer having one or more heat loads and one or more power loads; Consumer information accumulating means for accumulating in a database a measurement result of a thermoelectric demand amount of a consumer load operated by a consumer performing the behavior indicated by the behavior information;
When the behavior information is received from the consumer, the thermoelectric demand prediction means for creating a predicted value of the thermoelectric demand for the behavior information using the database.

  In addition, the behavior information reporting apparatus according to the present invention allows a member of a customer having one or more heat loads and one or more heat loads to be able to understand the content of the behavior of the member at an arbitrary time and / or an arbitrary time before. The behavior information indicating the content of the behavior is transmitted by communication to a thermoelectric demand prediction device that predicts the consumer's thermoelectric demand.

  The present invention improves the prediction accuracy by collecting in advance information on the amount of thermoelectric demand for each customer's behavior and predicting the amount of thermoelectric demand for each consumer based on the collected information. It is intended. In this case, the thermoelectric demand consumed by each member of the consumer is measured in advance, the data measured by the thermoelectric demand forecasting device is stored in the database, and the member of the consumer will have the same behavior information from the next time Is transmitted to the thermoelectric demand forecasting device, the thermoelectric demand forecasting device predicts the thermoelectric demand using the behavior-specific power demand database of each consumer member measured in advance. Here, if there is no transmission of behavior information from a member of each consumer, as disclosed in Patent Document 1, the unit time thermoelectric consumption for each thermoelectric load stored in the database in advance for the thermoelectric load in the customer's house 1 Predict based on. In addition, when an action different from the action schedule reported in advance is performed, if a member of the customer corrects the past action record and inputs it to the action information reporting apparatus, the thermoelectric demand forecasting apparatus To correct the behavior information in the database.

  The function of the behavior information reporting device may be provided in a known security device, a cooking menu creation device, and a mobile terminal installed in a customer's house.

  According to the present invention, since a thermoelectric demand database for each behavior of each consumer member is created in advance, the behavior and the thermoelectric demand amount are associated with each other. It is not necessary to determine the demand plan in advance, and it is possible to predict by transmitting the behavior information. In addition, because the forecast value is corrected when a member of the consumer sends new behavior information, it is possible to create a forecast value that always takes into account fluctuations in the forecast value due to changes in behavior of the consumer member. is there. Furthermore, when an action different from the action schedule declared in advance is performed, it is possible to improve the accuracy of prediction by correcting the action by inputting an action result. Note that the behavior information reporting device is provided not only with a device in a customer's home but also with a mobile terminal, so that behavior information can be input at all times. In addition, by incorporating the function of the behavior information reporting device into the security device and the cooking menu creation device and linking them, it is possible to save the effort of reporting the behavior information by a member of the consumer.

  Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a consumer and a thermoelectric demand prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention. Here, for convenience, only one customer's house is shown, but there are actually many customer houses. As shown in the figure, the thermoelectric demand prediction device 3 is connected to the customer 1 by a communication line indicated by a dotted line. The power load of the customer 1 is connected to the power system 2 by a power line indicated by a solid line, and the heat load 12 is connected by a heat pipe indicated by a one-dot chain line. The customer's house 1 includes a power load 11 such as an air conditioner and a washing / drying machine, and a heat load 12 such as a dishwasher and a water heater, and includes a measurement information transmission unit 13 that transmits information obtained by measuring the thermoelectric demand of each load. ing. The customer's house 1 further includes an action information reporting device 14 that shows an action schedule by a member of the consumer, such as scheduled return time, video recording time, and scheduled bathing time. The thermoelectric demand prediction device 3 includes a data receiving unit 21 that receives measurement data of customer load at each consumer, and a customer information storage unit 22 that accumulates behavior information by a member of the consumer and the thermoelectric demand for the behavior. And a thermoelectric demand prediction unit 23 that predicts the thermoelectric demand of each consumer. The customer information storage unit 22 includes a behavior information DB 24 and a thermoelectric demand DB 25. The behavior information DB 24 stores past behavior information such as “return home” and “bathing” reported by a member of the customer 1, and the thermoelectric demand DB 25 occurs in the time zone when the behavior was performed. The thermoelectric demand is stored. These DBs 24 and 25 are updated when a new action is performed by a member of the consumer, or when the behavior information previously reported by the member of the consumer is modified. The behavior information reporting apparatus 14 can be operated from the input screen as shown in FIG. 2, and can be reported from the outside using a portable terminal or the like. In addition, if there is a known security device in the customer's house that inputs the presence / absence, such as an alarm sounding if a customer member does not enter home information within a certain time after returning home, The device may have a function of a behavior information reporting device. Similarly, when a known menu creation device for creating a menu from food is in the customer's house, the menu creation device may have a function of a behavior information reporting device. Here, the form and number of consumers are various. For example, there is a consumer who owns an energy generation device and an energy storage device other than a consumer who owns only an electric power load and a thermal load, and the thermoelectric demands of the plurality of consumers may be predicted simultaneously.

  FIG. 3 is a flowchart for explaining the overall operation of the customer's house and the thermoelectric demand prediction device shown in FIG. As shown in the figure, first, a member of a consumer uses the behavior information reporting device 14 to transmit behavior information such as a scheduled return time to the thermoelectric demand prediction device 3 (steps 101 and 102). Here, if the actual bathing time yesterday was different from the schedule, if the actual time zone or action content was different from the action schedule sent in advance, the action schedule declared in advance was changed. (Steps 103 and 104). In addition, if a known presence / absence discriminating device, such as a home or when there is gas consumption for a kitchen or hot water supply, senses absence when there is no, it will indicate the absence information The behavior information reporting device 14 receives from the presence / absence discrimination device and changes the behavior schedule. In this way, when the action information already reported is not performed, the prediction accuracy is improved by making corrections. And if a consumer load operates, a measuring device (not shown in Drawing 1) will measure the thermoelectric demand according to a consumer's action, and measurement information transmission part 13 will transmit a measurement result to thermoelectric demand forecast device 3. (Steps 105-107). On the other hand, in the thermoelectric demand forecasting device 3, when the data receiving unit 21 receives behavior information from the customer's house 1 (step 201), the thermoelectric demand forecasting unit 23 stores the received behavior information in the behavior information DB 24. It is determined whether it is the same as the behavior information received in the past (step 202). If they are the same, for example, the thermoelectric demand consumed by the air conditioner or hot water supply is predicted from the behavior information (step 203). At this time, as shown in Table 1, the thermoelectric demand amount and the operation time zone due to the air conditioner and hot water supply are predicted using the thermoelectric demand DB 25 that has been measured and stored in advance for each action information by a member of the consumer. .

  Specifically, when behavior information such as returning home or bathing is reported at t as shown in FIG. 4 by a member of the consumer, the thermoelectric demand forecasting side 23 uses the DBs 24 and 25 to reach t. Prediction of thermoelectric demand in air conditioners and gas water heaters is performed. If the behavior information by a member of the consumer is not declared, as disclosed in Patent Document 1, the thermoelectric load in the customer's house 1 is preliminarily databased based on the unit time thermoelectric consumption for each thermoelectric load. A prediction can be made (step 204). Thereafter, when the measurement result of the thermoelectric demand from the customer's house 1 is received by the data receiving unit 21 (step 205), the customer information accumulating unit 22 causes the measurement result to be obtained by a member of the consumer. It is stored in the thermoelectric demand DB 25 in association with the behavior information in the middle (step 206). The information stored here is reflected in the next prediction of thermoelectric demand. When the past behavior information correction is received by the data receiving unit 21, the past behavior information is corrected and stored in the behavior information DB 24 (steps 207 and 208). A series of these operations are repeated many times, and reliability can be improved by taking an average value between them. However, instead of taking all the average values in the past data, the reliability may be improved by taking, for example, the latest several average values or omitting the average value having an extremely large error rate. . When the behavior schedule of a consumer member changes, the consumer member uses the behavior information reporting device 14 to change the behavior information from the outside at any time by the customer's home or mobile terminal.

  Next, operations of the customer's house and the thermoelectric demand prediction device when a member of the customer cooks food will be described using the flowchart of FIG. When determining a menu and cooking a dish, each consumer selects from the menu list display of the behavior information reporting apparatus 14 and transmits behavior information (steps 111 and 112). At this time, the display of the behavior information reporting device 14 on the customer side is as shown in the left diagram of FIG. Here, a member of the consumer selects a menu for cooking from the menu list, and inputs a cooking time zone and the number of people. If the cooking menu or time transmitted on the previous day is different from the actual time, correction is performed (steps 113 and 114). When the above input is completed, how to make the menu, necessary materials, calories, etc. are displayed on the screen. When creating a menu, the menu may be created using a known menu creation device that creates a menu from a combination of ingredients. The thermoelectric demand forecasting part 23 of the thermoelectric demand forecasting device 3 that has received the menu information converts the menu information into the thermoelectric demand using the past information of the DBs 24 and 25 as shown in the right diagram of FIG. Prediction is performed (steps 211 to 213). In the customer's house 1, when a member of the consumer starts cooking, the thermoelectric demand is measured by a measuring instrument and transmitted to the thermoelectric demand forecasting device 3 by the measurement information transmitting unit 13 (steps 115 to 117). The thermoelectric demand amount transmitted to the thermoelectric demand amount prediction device 3 is stored in the thermoelectric demand amount DB 25 for each menu by the customer information storage unit 22 (steps 215 to 217), and is reflected in the prediction from the next time.

  Here, a case where a member of a consumer cooks a plurality of menus will be described. When a member of the consumer selects three menus simultaneously, the thermoelectric demand amount cooked at the start of cooking according to the flowchart of FIG. 5 is measured and stored in the thermoelectric demand DB 25. However, since the measured data includes a plurality of dishes, it is necessary to divide them individually. Therefore, when a member of the consumer cooks the menu A, menu B, and menu C dishes as shown in FIG. 7, first, the total value of the thermoelectric demand for each single item stored in the thermoelectric demand DB 25 in advance. Is calculated. Moreover, the ratio of the thermoelectric demand of each menu is calculated from the past thermoelectric demand DB 25. Next, when the total value for each single item in the past thermoelectric demand DB 25 is different from the current measured value, the current measured value is apportioned by the ratio of the thermoelectric demand calculated previously (step 216). This apportioned value is stored in the thermoelectric demand DB 25 (step 217) and reflected in the prediction from the next time.

Next, a method for measuring customer load will be described. FIG. 8 shows a configuration example of customer load. Here, all the thermoelectric loads inside the customer are equipped with measuring instruments 15 and can be measured individually. The data measured for each load is transmitted from the measurement information transmission unit 13 to the thermoelectric demand prediction device 4 via the communication line. However, if the measuring instrument 15 is provided for each load, the initial cost becomes high. Therefore, as shown in FIG. However, in this case, it is necessary to distinguish between the heat load and the power load because they are measured simultaneously. For example, when calculating the power required for cooking, by referring to the time zone in which a member of the consumer has declared cooking as shown in FIG. 10, the base power before cooking and the power including cooking are as follows: The difference is calculated using
(Power required for cooking) = (Power including cooking)-(Base power)

1 is a configuration diagram of a thermoelectric demand prediction device and a customer's house according to an embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the display of the action information reporting apparatus operated in FIG. It is a flowchart which shows the thermoelectric demand prediction apparatus of FIG. 1, and a consumer's whole operation | movement. It is a figure which shows an example of thermoelectric demand DB by the past action information in the consumer information storage part of FIG. It is a flowchart which shows the thermoelectric demand amount prediction apparatus in case a member of a consumer cooks a dish, and the whole operation | movement of a consumer. It is a figure explaining the example of the display of the action information reporting apparatus at the time of cooking, and the content of DB of a thermoelectric demand amount apparatus. It is a figure explaining the case where a member of a consumer cooks several menus. It is a figure which shows the structural example provided with the measuring device in all the consumer loads. It is a figure which shows the structural example which aggregated the measuring device of the consumer load in one place. It is a figure for demonstrating the method to measure the electric power demand when the measuring device of a consumer load is collected in one place.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Consumer house 2 Electric power system 3 Thermoelectric demand prediction apparatus 11 Electric power load 12 Thermal load 13 Measurement information transmission part 12 Behavior information reporting apparatus 15 Measuring instrument 21 Data reception part 22 Consumer information storage part 23 Total electricity demand prediction part 24 Behavior Information DB
25 Thermoelectric demand DB
101-107, 111-117, 201-208, 211-217 steps

Claims (9)

Behavior information indicating the content of the behavior of an arbitrary time ahead and / or the behavior of an arbitrary time before declared by a member of a customer having one or more heat loads and one or more power loads; Consumer information accumulating means for accumulating in a database a measurement result of a thermoelectric demand of a consumer load operated by the member performing the behavior indicated by the behavior information;
A thermoelectric demand forecasting device comprising: thermoelectric demand forecasting means for creating a predicted value of thermoelectric demand for the behavior information using the database when behavior information is received from a consumer.   The customer information accumulating means, when a member of the consumer cooks a plurality of menus, prorates the thermoelectric demand based on the ratio of the thermoelectric demand for each menu stored in the database in advance. The thermoelectric demand prediction apparatus according to claim 1, which is stored in the database.   When the measuring device for measuring the thermoelectric demand is measuring the thermoelectric demand in a plurality of thermoelectric loads at the same time, a member of the consumer starts to act on the thermoelectric demand. The thermoelectric demand prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the thermoelectric demand is calculated from a difference between a previous measurement value and a measurement value that has changed after a member of the consumer starts an action.   2. The thermoelectric demand according to claim 1, wherein, when storing the measured thermoelectric demand in the database, the consumer information accumulating unit takes an average value for a predetermined number of predetermined times in order of date. Prediction device.   A member of a customer having one or more heat loads and one or more heat loads communicates behavior information indicating the content of the behavior of the member at an arbitrary time ahead and / or the behavior of the behavior at an arbitrary time before by communication, An action information reporting device for transmitting to a thermoelectric demand forecasting device that predicts the thermoelectric demand of the consumer.   The behavior information reporting apparatus according to claim 5, wherein when the behavior information is cooking, a menu, a cooking time zone, and the number of people to eat can be input.   The behavior information reporting device according to claim 6, wherein the behavior information is reported based on a menu selected by a device that creates a menu by combining ingredients.   6. The behavior information declaration according to claim 5, wherein, when a presence / absence determination device is installed in a customer's home, a behavioral record regarding presence / absence is reported based on information transmitted from the presence / absence determination device. apparatus. The behavior information reporting apparatus according to claim 5, wherein the function of the behavior information reporting apparatus is incorporated in a mobile terminal.

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