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An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes this evening. A couple of tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Severe storms also remain a concern across parts of the central High Plains and the Northeast.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Thu (07/02). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Wed (07/01)	Thu (07/02)	Fri (07/03)	Sat (07/04)	Sun (07/05)	Mon (07/06)	Tue (07/07)	Wed (07/08)
Severe	Enhanced	Slight	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Fire

Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 02 Jul

Sig Severe Probabilities: 02 Jul

Tornado Probabilities: 02 Jul

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 02 Jul

Severe Hail Probabilities: 02 Jul

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 02 Jul

Significant Wind Probabilities: 02 Jul

Significant Hail Probabilities: 02 Jul

More climatology data here.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: July 01 2026 12:28 UTC

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: July 01 2026 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 02 Jul

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 02 Jul

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 02 Jul

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 02 Jul

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Chalmers, Z. A., M. D. Parker, 2026: Variability in High-Shear, Low-CAPE QLCS Environments in the Southeastern United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [21500K PDF]
Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jun 30, 2026	Tornado: 2	Wind: 190	Hail: 16

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