Bitfinex

Bitcoin closed June down 20.48%, its worst June since 2022, after falling to $57,803 before reclaiming $60,000. BTC began moving higher before softer jobs data lifted broader risk sentiment, suggesting spot buyers had already started to return at the lows rather than simply following the macro rally. That leaves July as a demand test, not just a seasonality trade. The month has historically averaged 7.6%  gains for BTC, but after six weeks of ETF outflows, the recovery still needs renewed inflows to carry it. Bitfinex Alpha 212 looks at whether the move below $58,000 was a failed breakdown, or the start of another leg lower.

Bitcoin’s halving playbook has not shown up this time. 806 days after the April 2024 halving, $BTC is still around 2% below its halving-day price. The first sign this cycle is late, not broken, is a sustained reclaim of that level.

Long-term $BTC holders are holding through the pain, not selling into it. Nearly half of all supply is now underwater, most of it held by this cohort. Their supply still hit a record in June. Bottoms come when these holders capitulate. They are accumulating instead.

Some miners switched machines off in June when $BTC fell below $60,000, and difficulty dropped 10.1%. Weeks later most of that capacity is back, difficulty up 7% on July 2.  The relief window for surviving miners is closing. The mid-July adjustment is the tell.

Bitfinex Margin Lending credits interest daily at 01:30 UTC. Not monthly or on withdrawal. For traders who understand compounding, that difference adds up. https://lnkd.in/er_f7-YE

Two tokenised products can share the same three-letter label and almost nothing else. What you own can differ completely, from the issuer to the claim to how returns are made. Before treating one RWA as comparable to another, look behind the token... https://lnkd.in/eKTbxD4P

The word "blockchain" was never mentioned in the Bitcoin whitepaper. Who said it first?

Margin positions carry borrowing costs by definition. The rate is priced in before a trader enters. Adding a taker fee on top - on both the entry and the exit - compounds the drag that the position has to overcome before it becomes profitable. On Bitfinex, the trading fee across both legs is zero. For margin traders, that changes the breakeven calculation before the position moves a single basis point. Zero trading fees on Bitfinex.

While ETH sits near its lows, the fundamentals are tightening. Validator entry queue near 3m ETH, exits near zero. ETH is leaving liquid supply to earn yield. A quiet supply squeeze, building underneath the surface while price drawdowns make headlines.

June was the worst month on record for US spot bitcoin ETF flows, $4.06bn of net redemptions, the deepest day near $650m. A net-inflow week, not a single green day, is the first sign that turns.