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Last Updated: Sunday, 25 January, 2004, 08:53 GMT
A huge week for Tony Blair

By Nick Assinder
BBC News Online political correspondent

By the end of this week the political landscape in Britain may just have changed out of all recognition.

It is even possible that Labour's most successful prime minister may be on his way out of Downing Street.

Despite his recent attempts to make light of claims he is facing his most difficult week ever, Tony Blair knows full well his premiership is on the line like never before.

Tony Blair at the Hutton inquiry
This will definitely be a long week in UK politics

He knows it because, as much as anybody else, he has placed his career in that position.

He is on record as stating, during one of his monthly press conferences, that his personal authority is on the line over top up fees. The vote is on Tuesday shortly before 1900 GMT.

And he told the Hutton inquiry into the death of Dr David Kelly that, if the central allegation that he spun Britain into war is sustained, he will have to quit. The report is being published on Wednesday.

Confidence vote

He has also suggested that if Lord Hutton finds him personally responsible for the process which led to the naming of Dr Kelly, his position would be untenable.

So, for Tony Blair, the stakes could not be higher.

If he loses the Commons vote on top up fees on Tuesday night - in what promises to be one of the most dramatic events of this parliament - he will most likely be forced to either resign or call a humiliating vote of confidence in his leadership.

Lord Hutton
Lord Hutton will speak at Royal Courts of Justice
He would almost certainly win that confidence motion a few days later, but it would leave him dangerously weakened.

If, on the following day, Lord Hutton levels any significant criticism at him when he announces his findings in the Royal Courts of Justice, resignation talk will mount.

If there was a resignation it would pitch Labour into what would almost certainly be a period of crisis as the party wrestled with the process of replacing a sitting prime minister. Almost anything is possible.

Not simple

Of course, things may not be quite that simple and there are plenty of other combinations of events and conclusions that may leave him either vindicated or in place, but damaged.

Michael Howard
Howard's performance may be vital
It may be, for example, that the Hutton report falls short of being fatal in itself, but is damaging enough to leave the prime minister's future in the hands of the Commons debate with Michael Howard a week later.

Both men's futures might then hang on the outcome of that clash.

What Mr Blair would most dearly love would be to win the fees vote on Tuesday and to be cleared of any hint of wrongdoing by Lord Hutton a few hours later.

That would put him in a hugely powerful position to go on and win the Commons debate.

Spin doctor

Mr Howard might still be able to inflict damage in the clash over events not directly covered by the Hutton report.

And until Lord Hutton delivers his findings no one knows precisely which events he will cover and which he decided were outside his terms of reference.

But under those circumstances it is hard to see Mr Blair not continuing until the next general election.

Meanwhile, of course, there is a whole cast of other figures who will also be affected by Lord Hutton's report.

Politically the most likely to attract attention are Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, long seen as a potential casualty, and former spin doctor Alastair Campbell.

But the two days in the middle of this week are now overwhelmingly about the future of one man - Tony Blair.




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